An election representative shows a ballot depicting a vote for Kemal Kilicdaroglu at a polling station in Ankara, Turkey, on Sunday. Ali Unal/AP hide caption
An election representative shows a ballot depicting a vote for Kemal Kilicdaroglu at a polling station in Ankara, Turkey, on Sunday.
Turkish voters will return to the polls on May 28 for a runoff election after longtime leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his main rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu both failed to win more than 50% of the vote on Sunday.
The presidential contest comes at a pivotal moment for the country, which is grappling with issues from high inflation to the aftermath of the deadly February earthquakes that left more than 50,000 dead and millions homeless. Many in Turkey have criticized the government's slow response and see the election as a referendum on it.
There are also implications on the world stage: Turkey, which straddles Europe and the Middle East, is a key member of NATO.
It has maintained relations with Russia since the invasion of Ukraine and played a major role in pushing for peace talks and brokering a Ukrainian grain export deal aimed at easing global food shortages. Turkey recently cleared the way for Finland to join NATO, but is blocking Sweden from joining the alliance (over concerns that Stockholm is harboring groups, including Kurdish militants, that it considers terrorist organizations).
Kilicdaroglu a former bureaucrat who leads Turkey's main secular opposition party has spoken about restoring Turkey's relationships with the U.S. and Europe (while maintaining its relations with Moscow).
Erdogan has taken steps to consolidate presidential power during his 20 years in charge, raising concerns about democracy and human rights.
Turkey has been fulfilling its commitments within NATO despite Erdogan's rhetoric while also creating some difficulties for it, notes Alper Cokun, a retired Turkish diplomat who is now a senior fellow in the Europe Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
He says the outcome of the election could potentially mean big changes for NATO and the region as a whole.
"A lot is at stake not only for Turkey but also for beyond," says Cokun.
Despite concerns about Turkish democracy and human rights under Erdogan's tenure, he remains popular with his conservative base and defied pre-election forecasts by taking 49.4% of the vote on Sunday.
Erdogan seems to have been able to "tap into the public sentiments" better than his opponent, Cokun tells Morning Edition's A Martnez. But he adds that it wasn't exactly a level playing field, since Erdogan had the "full force" of state media behind him and could promote a certain narrative.
Erdogan's reputation has evolved in the years since he came to power, Cokun explains.
The leader who once advocated for Turkey's accession to the European Union is "no longer seen very much as a like-minded person among Turkey's Western allies."
Cokun attributes that to democratic backsliding, multiple forms of misconduct and the government's earthquake response, which many see as underscoring the problems with the centralized form of government and executive presidential system to which Erdogan had transitioned the country.
"Initially he's had a good relationship and good standing, including with the U.S. But with a changing trajectory and more disruptive actions on his part I think though the U.S. or Europe doesn't say it in so many words they wouldn't have minded a change in political guard in Turkey," Cokun adds.
Erdogan faces his strongest challenge so far in Kilicdaroglu, a former accountant with a reputation as a clean politician and champion of secular values. Kilicdaroglu is backed by six opposition parties and won nearly 45% of the vote in the first round.
Kilicdaroglu has campaigned on reversing Turkey into a parliamentary form of government, as well as restoring trust with the U.S. and Europe.
"The opposition has put forward a foreign policy agenda that seems to imply that they would reorient Turkey not forfeiting its relations and the significance of its engagement with countries like Russia or even with China but making Turkey's position in the Western security architecture more central, Cokun says.
Analysts believe a Kilicdaroglu victory would mean a return to democratic norms, pro-NATO foreign policy (at least in some respects) and more cooperation with the U.S.
"The problems that Turkey has with its European allies, even with the U.S., I think, would become more manageable," Cokun says. "So the relationship would become more predictable and easier to handle, despite many challenges that would probably continue to exist."
The Biden administration has so far avoided picking sides.
"I just hope ... whoever wins wins," Biden said on Sunday. "There's enough problems in that part of the world right now."
That hasn't always been his stance. In 2020, when Biden was still a candidate, video surfaced of him calling Erdogan an autocrat and suggesting the U.S. should support the opposition comments that Turkey condemned as "interventionist" at the time.
Erdogan has actually been capitalizing on that criticism, Cokun says.
"He has been referring to that, suggesting that the opposition is working in tandem with foreign forces against him," he says. "And that galvanizes his public support and consolidates his base, and he's done that during this campaign as well."
Both Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu are expected to meet with Nationalist third-party candidate Sinan Ogan, who has suggested his endorsement could secure someone the presidency. Analysts say a deal between Erdogan and Ogan could win him another term, NPR's Peter Kenyon reports.
If that happens, Cokun expects Turkey to continue down its current foreign policy trajectory.
"Turkey and its Western allies and the United States have settled into a transactional relationship," he adds. "And that's really not a resilience form of relationship. It's more unpredictable and I presume that should Erdogan remain in power that would not change much."
The broadcast interview was produced by Shelby Hawkins and edited by Amra Pasic.
Read the original:
Turkey's elections have implications for the U.S. and NATO - NPR
- Trump says he'd 'encourage' Russia to attack NATO allies who don't pay their bills - NPR - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Trump suggests he'd disregard NATO treaty, urge Russian attacks on allies - The Washington Post - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- 'You got to pay!': Trump threatens to 'encourage' Russia to attack NATO allies behind on payments - FRANCE 24 English - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Trump says Russia can do what it wants to Nato allies who pay too little - Financial Times - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- White House calls Trump comments on NATO appalling and unhinged - The Hill - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Trump says Russia could do 'whatever the hell they want' to NATO countries that don't pay their share - Yahoo News - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Trump Says He Gave NATO Allies Warning: Pay In or He'd Urge Russian Aggression - The New York Times - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- White House says Trump comments on refusing to back NATO allies 'unhinged' - The Times of Israel - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- NATO allies warn Hungary not to hold up Sweden's membership as US patience wears thin - The Associated Press - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Trump comments on Russia, NATO 'appalling and unhinged' -White House - Yahoo News Canada - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- NATO Allies Pressure Hungary Over Blocking Sweden's Accession - Voice of America - VOA News - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Trump says he warned NATO: Pay in or he'd tell Russia 'to do whatever the hell they want' - The Spokesman Review - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Vladimir Putin on invading Poland, the war in Ukraine, American 'spies' and Russia joining NATO - Sky News - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Trump says he would support Russia in attacking NATO allies who dont pay' up - Hindustan Times - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Trump says he will encourage Russia to attack NATO states that pay too little - Ukrainska Pravda - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Orbn's party boycotts a session of Hungary's parliament to further stall Sweden's bid to join NATO - The Associated Press - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- US, NATO Reaffirm Need to Support Ukraine - Voice of America - VOA News - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Shocking moment Donald Trump tells cheering crowd he would encourage Russia to ATTACK fellow NATO members for - Daily Mail - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Trump says he warned NATO ally: Spend more on defense or Russia can 'do whatever the hell they want' - WV News - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Trump threatens to 'encourage' attack of NATO members behind on payments - Port Lavaca Wave - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- NATO, Gaza, and the future of US-Turkish relations - European Council on Foreign Relations - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- The Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict demands American diplomacy without NATO overreach - The Hill - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Putin tells Tucker Carlson Bill Clinton agreed that Russia could join NATO - WION - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Trump is slammed for encouraging Russia to attack NATO allies who 'don't pay their dues', with White House bra - Daily Mail - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Trump comments on Russia and NATO appalling and unhinged, says White House spokesperson - Firstpost - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Now we are not safe: Swedens Kurds fear Nato deal has sold them out - The Guardian - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Germany urges Orbn to ratify Sweden's NATO bid as 'a matter of loyalty' - POLITICO Europe - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Ukraine's Military to Receive Double Boost From NATO Allies - Newsweek - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg calls on Europe to ramp up arms production - The Hindu - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Nato chief urges Europe to ramp up arms production to avoid 'decades' of conflict with Russia - The Telegraph - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Russia likely upping jamming on NATO countries to test them: general - Business Insider - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Can NATO and the EU Survive and Thrive? - Gallup - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- NATO chief in DC trying to get blood from a stone - Responsible Statecraft - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- For Europe and NATO, a Russian Invasion Is No Longer Unthinkable - The New York Times - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Sen. Menendez Questions Witnesses During SFRC Subcommittee Hearing About the Possible Process for Ukraine to ... - Senator Menendez - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- NATO should be ambitious with its new Southern Flank Strategy - Atlantic Council - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Hungary parliament to meet on Monday at opposition request with Sweden's NATO bid on agenda - Reuters - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Pressure Grows on Hungary to Approve Swedens NATO Bid - Voice of America - VOA News - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Opinion | As war risks mount, Europe is sluggish to response - The Washington Post - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Opinion | How the E.U. and NATO should respond to Hungarys authoritarian Orban - The Washington Post - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- NATO chief warns 'Taiwan could be tomorrow' at Trump bastion - Nikkei Asia - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- ARTHUR CYR: NATO The Enduring Alliance | Opinion | henryherald.com - Henry Herald - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- NATO chief talks up alliance role in advancing US interests at think tank favored by Trump - Stars and Stripes - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Diplomacy Watch: NATO membership still on the table? - Responsible Statecraft - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- When will Sweden join NATO? | Opinion - Deseret News - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Trump hates NATO: Would he leave Canada out in the cold? - GZERO Media - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- China will learn that using force works if Russia prevails: NATO chief - Business Insider - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- NATO newcomer Finland's presidential election is headed for a runoff - NPR - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Letter | The US and NATO let 'never again' happen again in Ukraine - The Daily Progress - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Why Turkey Waited to Approve Sweden's NATO Membership - Foreign Policy - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Coalition of Three: BiH is grateful for all NATO Support - Sarajevo Times - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Former NATO head: Russia, Ukraine will have moment for potential negotiation after 2024 election - The Hill - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Code Red: How Russia Conquers the Baltics - Center for European Policy Analysis - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Orban Escalates Standoff Over Sweden's Accession to NATO - Yahoo News - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Trump Unleashes His Doubts On NATO: 'We Don't Get So Much Out Of It' - Yahoo News - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Putin to visit NATO member Turkey on 12 February - EURACTIV - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Turkey Acquiesced on Sweden Because It Needs the West - Foreign Policy - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Ex-NATO chief says war in Ukraine could end just like the Korean War - Business Insider - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Secretary General in Florida: NATO makes the United States stronger and more secure - European Interest - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Sweden's accession will make 'a lot of improvements' to NATO: Swedish FM Billstrm - Talking Europe - FRANCE 24 English - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- Sweden says Hungary sticking to promise over NATO accession - Reuters - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- In Russia's Kaliningrad, isolation and diminished threat to NATO - Stars and Stripes - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- He helped get Finns into NATO, now he gets them dancing. Will DJ Pexi be president? - Reuters - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- Fears of a NATO Withdrawal Rise as Trump Seeks a Return to Power - Yahoo News - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- France is beefing up its support at NATO's eastern flank - The Economist - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- NATO impressed by Israel's genocide tech - The Electronic Intifada - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- Ukraine will get the US aid it needs, former Nato envoy predicts - The National - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- NATO raises the military budget for 2024 to EUR 2.03 bn - TVP World - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- NATO selects companies for innovation hub | Shephard - Shephard News - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- Nato Dating: A new dating trend in town - WION - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- GE wins contract to study propulsion options for NATO next-generation helicopter - Flightglobal - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- NATO Dating: Decoding the Gen-Z relationship trend - WION - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- NATO Ally Fears Russian Invasion and Possible 'Defensive' War - Newsweek - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- Erdogan Ally Links Sweden's NATO Bid to Gaza War in New Hurdle - Bloomberg - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- 'Ukraine will become a member of NATO when all allies agree, and conditions are met' Biden - Yahoo News - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- NATO's Strategy Of Constructive Anarchism Fuels Endless Wars OpEd - Eurasia Review - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- NATO agrees 2024 Budgets, demonstrating Allied Solidarity - Sarajevo Times - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- NATO Raises Concerns Over Proposed Menthol Ban With Federal Officials - CSNews Online - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- NATO increases military budget by 12% to 2.03 billion euros - News.Az - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- NATO scouts for defense startups with help of three Boston women - The Boston Globe - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]