Historic change is afoot in the Eastern Mediterranean. In years to come, historians will point to this post-pandemic, post-wildfire time as the moment that the deeply idiosyncratic peoples of the Eastern Mediterranean discovered hitherto unrealized abilities to cooperate on a regional level. With interests aligned as never before, the regional powers of Turkey and Israel have the chance to create a platform for regional growth and securitya Mediterranean Union.
The Weight of History
It is barely possible to escape the weight of history in the Eastern Mediterranean. For over one thousand years, todays Istanbul was the center of the Roman Empire. Even after its fall in 1453, the victorious Ottoman leader Mehmed II retained the title of Kayser-I-Rum (Caesar of Rome), and with it a sense that a strong Eastern Mediterranean could and must dynamically engage with the rest of the world.
More recently, in the 1930s, Atatrks new Turkish Republic shaped the interwar Balkan Pact with Yugoslavia, Greece and Romania as a platform for regional security, anticipating a rise in threat from belligerent and anti-Western neighbors.
Todays time is no less historic. The coronavirus pandemic and a spate of terrifying wildfires have demonstrated to the peoples of Europes Eastern Mediterranean nations that their lives, livelihoods and prospects are more intertwined with their immediate neighbors of Turkey and Israel than with the distant powers of a European Union fixated on Northern European economic and cultural values.
An Attractive Opportunity
To smaller nations and peoples in the region, a Mediterranean Union, built around the Western-aligned powers of Turkey and Israel, working within and alongside NATO, would be attractive. A Mediterranean Union operating under the Western aegis, sponsored by global leaders such as President Joe Biden, French president Emmanuel Macron, Turkish president Recep Erdogan and British prime minister Boris Johnson, would be an engine for growth and security and a counterweight to Russia and Chinas expansionary visions for the region whilst renewing U.S. engagement in regions where lasting Atlanticist impact is feasible.
The onus is, therefore, on the regions strongest leaders to make this change happen. With nearly twenty years of rule under his belt, Erdogan has a unique historical chance to work with others to achieve lasting regional change.
Israel is now recovering from the destabilizing effects of a series of inconclusive general elections. Under its prime minister, Naftali Bennett, Israels newly sworn-in government has a mandate to rip up the old rules that shaped Israels engagement with its neighbors. This ambition is evidenced by Israels firefighters offering to share firefighting technologies and personnel with wildfire-afflicted Turkey in recent weeks.
Meanwhile, over in the West, Macron will be just as keen to capitalize on the opportunities of a revitalized Mediterranean. Natural allies such as Bidens America and Johnsons Britain are also likely to support the project.
Why Now?
In many ways, these opportunities exist because of changes in Turkey. Turkeys constitution has been reformed under the leadership of economist and political kingmaker Dr. Devlet Baheli of the Nationalist Movement Party.
A history of short-term opportunism and unstable parliamentary coalitions has given ground to a political culture capable of planning for long-term growth and deepening relationships with NATO and the West.
With Turkey actively engaged with containing Russian expansionism on three fronts (Black Sea, Middle East and North Africa), NATO membership remains central to Turkeys long-term visions. Indeed, NATO membership is now irrevocably hard-wired into Turkeys constitution.
Militarily, Turkeys ability to project itself beyond its borders has grown under Defence Minister Gen. Hulusi Akar. Turkeys innovative military-industrial sector is rapidly expanding its international sales, particularly with drone technology across Europe and Eurasia.
By appointing Baheli and Akar as his vice-presidents, Erdogan would be able to restructure the state domestically and benefit from their sphere of power as Turkey takes its place in this union.
Turkeys grand infrastructure play, the new Canal Istanbul, will positively affect Turkeys borders. All Mediterranean and Black Sea countries will benefit from the resulting expansion in trade capacity and decreased friction for shipping. Moribund trade routes will revitalize, and the Eastern Mediterranean and Balkan regions will likely regain an economic vibrancy and self-sufficiency not seen for centuries. This in itself will prove an asset to Biden and the Western powers as it will decrease the promise and attractiveness of Chinas Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
It is this that, perhaps, is the biggest draw of a Mediterranean Union. What is happening in the Eastern Mediterranean will become a showcase for a new model, with attractions far greater than alternative projects such as the BRI. The model will show that countries large and small can grow together to the benefit of all. Its a model that ties together the best elements of history with the practical promise of the present.
Alp Sevimlisoy is the CEO of Asthenius Capital, an emerging-markets-based hedge fund headquartered in London and a Millennium Fellow at the Atlantic Council headquartered in Washington, DC. Sevimlisoyis also an advisory board member at Cass Business School and an internationally published geopolitical strategist on the Mediterranean.
Peter Woodard is a Canadian-British financial technology professional with a geopolitical focus on the moving parts within NATO and the potential for an expanded role within the region. He has spent considerable time consulting stakeholders in Mexico on its role in supporting Western initiatives.
James Arnold has been involved in asset management and finance for approximately twenty-five years notably as an early member of the hedge fund industry. Arnold is also a geopolitical analyst and writes on US foreign affairs.
Image: Reuters
Link:
This Conglomerate of Countries Could Change the Face of NATO - The National Interest
- Trump says he'd 'encourage' Russia to attack NATO allies who don't pay their bills - NPR - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Trump suggests he'd disregard NATO treaty, urge Russian attacks on allies - The Washington Post - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- 'You got to pay!': Trump threatens to 'encourage' Russia to attack NATO allies behind on payments - FRANCE 24 English - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Trump says Russia can do what it wants to Nato allies who pay too little - Financial Times - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- White House calls Trump comments on NATO appalling and unhinged - The Hill - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Trump says Russia could do 'whatever the hell they want' to NATO countries that don't pay their share - Yahoo News - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Trump Says He Gave NATO Allies Warning: Pay In or He'd Urge Russian Aggression - The New York Times - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- White House says Trump comments on refusing to back NATO allies 'unhinged' - The Times of Israel - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- NATO allies warn Hungary not to hold up Sweden's membership as US patience wears thin - The Associated Press - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Trump comments on Russia, NATO 'appalling and unhinged' -White House - Yahoo News Canada - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- NATO Allies Pressure Hungary Over Blocking Sweden's Accession - Voice of America - VOA News - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Trump says he warned NATO: Pay in or he'd tell Russia 'to do whatever the hell they want' - The Spokesman Review - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Vladimir Putin on invading Poland, the war in Ukraine, American 'spies' and Russia joining NATO - Sky News - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Trump says he would support Russia in attacking NATO allies who dont pay' up - Hindustan Times - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Trump says he will encourage Russia to attack NATO states that pay too little - Ukrainska Pravda - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Orbn's party boycotts a session of Hungary's parliament to further stall Sweden's bid to join NATO - The Associated Press - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- US, NATO Reaffirm Need to Support Ukraine - Voice of America - VOA News - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Shocking moment Donald Trump tells cheering crowd he would encourage Russia to ATTACK fellow NATO members for - Daily Mail - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Trump says he warned NATO ally: Spend more on defense or Russia can 'do whatever the hell they want' - WV News - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Trump threatens to 'encourage' attack of NATO members behind on payments - Port Lavaca Wave - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- NATO, Gaza, and the future of US-Turkish relations - European Council on Foreign Relations - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- The Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict demands American diplomacy without NATO overreach - The Hill - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Putin tells Tucker Carlson Bill Clinton agreed that Russia could join NATO - WION - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Trump is slammed for encouraging Russia to attack NATO allies who 'don't pay their dues', with White House bra - Daily Mail - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Trump comments on Russia and NATO appalling and unhinged, says White House spokesperson - Firstpost - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Now we are not safe: Swedens Kurds fear Nato deal has sold them out - The Guardian - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Germany urges Orbn to ratify Sweden's NATO bid as 'a matter of loyalty' - POLITICO Europe - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Ukraine's Military to Receive Double Boost From NATO Allies - Newsweek - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg calls on Europe to ramp up arms production - The Hindu - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Nato chief urges Europe to ramp up arms production to avoid 'decades' of conflict with Russia - The Telegraph - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Russia likely upping jamming on NATO countries to test them: general - Business Insider - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Can NATO and the EU Survive and Thrive? - Gallup - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- NATO chief in DC trying to get blood from a stone - Responsible Statecraft - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- For Europe and NATO, a Russian Invasion Is No Longer Unthinkable - The New York Times - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Sen. Menendez Questions Witnesses During SFRC Subcommittee Hearing About the Possible Process for Ukraine to ... - Senator Menendez - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- NATO should be ambitious with its new Southern Flank Strategy - Atlantic Council - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Hungary parliament to meet on Monday at opposition request with Sweden's NATO bid on agenda - Reuters - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Pressure Grows on Hungary to Approve Swedens NATO Bid - Voice of America - VOA News - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Opinion | As war risks mount, Europe is sluggish to response - The Washington Post - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Opinion | How the E.U. and NATO should respond to Hungarys authoritarian Orban - The Washington Post - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- NATO chief warns 'Taiwan could be tomorrow' at Trump bastion - Nikkei Asia - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- ARTHUR CYR: NATO The Enduring Alliance | Opinion | henryherald.com - Henry Herald - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- NATO chief talks up alliance role in advancing US interests at think tank favored by Trump - Stars and Stripes - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Diplomacy Watch: NATO membership still on the table? - Responsible Statecraft - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- When will Sweden join NATO? | Opinion - Deseret News - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Trump hates NATO: Would he leave Canada out in the cold? - GZERO Media - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- China will learn that using force works if Russia prevails: NATO chief - Business Insider - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- NATO newcomer Finland's presidential election is headed for a runoff - NPR - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Letter | The US and NATO let 'never again' happen again in Ukraine - The Daily Progress - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Why Turkey Waited to Approve Sweden's NATO Membership - Foreign Policy - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Coalition of Three: BiH is grateful for all NATO Support - Sarajevo Times - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Former NATO head: Russia, Ukraine will have moment for potential negotiation after 2024 election - The Hill - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Code Red: How Russia Conquers the Baltics - Center for European Policy Analysis - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Orban Escalates Standoff Over Sweden's Accession to NATO - Yahoo News - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Trump Unleashes His Doubts On NATO: 'We Don't Get So Much Out Of It' - Yahoo News - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Putin to visit NATO member Turkey on 12 February - EURACTIV - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Turkey Acquiesced on Sweden Because It Needs the West - Foreign Policy - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Ex-NATO chief says war in Ukraine could end just like the Korean War - Business Insider - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Secretary General in Florida: NATO makes the United States stronger and more secure - European Interest - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Sweden's accession will make 'a lot of improvements' to NATO: Swedish FM Billstrm - Talking Europe - FRANCE 24 English - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- Sweden says Hungary sticking to promise over NATO accession - Reuters - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- In Russia's Kaliningrad, isolation and diminished threat to NATO - Stars and Stripes - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- He helped get Finns into NATO, now he gets them dancing. Will DJ Pexi be president? - Reuters - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- Fears of a NATO Withdrawal Rise as Trump Seeks a Return to Power - Yahoo News - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- France is beefing up its support at NATO's eastern flank - The Economist - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- NATO impressed by Israel's genocide tech - The Electronic Intifada - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- Ukraine will get the US aid it needs, former Nato envoy predicts - The National - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- NATO raises the military budget for 2024 to EUR 2.03 bn - TVP World - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- NATO selects companies for innovation hub | Shephard - Shephard News - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- Nato Dating: A new dating trend in town - WION - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- GE wins contract to study propulsion options for NATO next-generation helicopter - Flightglobal - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- NATO Dating: Decoding the Gen-Z relationship trend - WION - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- NATO Ally Fears Russian Invasion and Possible 'Defensive' War - Newsweek - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- Erdogan Ally Links Sweden's NATO Bid to Gaza War in New Hurdle - Bloomberg - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- 'Ukraine will become a member of NATO when all allies agree, and conditions are met' Biden - Yahoo News - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- NATO's Strategy Of Constructive Anarchism Fuels Endless Wars OpEd - Eurasia Review - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- NATO agrees 2024 Budgets, demonstrating Allied Solidarity - Sarajevo Times - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- NATO Raises Concerns Over Proposed Menthol Ban With Federal Officials - CSNews Online - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- NATO increases military budget by 12% to 2.03 billion euros - News.Az - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- NATO scouts for defense startups with help of three Boston women - The Boston Globe - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]