On 10 November, US secretary of state Antony Blinken publicly warned Russia not to make a serious mistake by escalating its war against Ukraine. The warning came after Russian troops were reported to have massed on the border with Ukraine. Russian deployments are ongoing, and open-source reporting alone can only capture a fraction of the actual military moves. This makes it difficult to establish what exactly is happening. But there appear to be several moves taking place at once, and they are not necessarily related. Some seem to concern Ukraine alone, while others may pose a danger to the European Union and NATO at large.
One major issue relates to the movements of the 41st Combined Arms Army (CAA). The 41st CAAs headquarters is in Novosibirsk in Siberia, and it was previously based in the Central Military District. In March this year it moved to Russias Western Military District, which stretches from Finland to most of the way down Russias border with Ukraine. The army remained there and took part in this years Zapad 21, a four-yearly large-scale military exercise that rehearses an attack on NATOs eastern flank. The CAA was deployed first to the Pogonovo training range in the Voronezh region of Russia, next to Ukraine. But by October most of its assets were located in Yelnia in the Smolensk region, next to Belarus. Both of these 41st CAA locations are around 250km from the Ukrainian border, although Yelnia is considerably further west.
That being said, despite being based at Yelnia, military movements appear to be constant, with troops leaving the camp and later arriving again (or different ones, potentially even from other armies, being deployed there). This makes them hard to track. But it would suggest that troops are taking part in military exercises, although there is no publicly available information about their exact nature. A Ukrainian source acquainted with the situation told the author in early November that at least some parts of these exercises are happening in Belarus. This seems likely from a military point of view: if the 41st CAA stays in the Smolensk region which it almost certainly will it would fill a gap between the 6th CAA, which is in the north (headquarters in St Petersburg) and the 20th CAA, which is in the east (Voronezh). Previously this broad location was only covered by the Belarusian Army, which effectively (from within its own country) filled the gap between the 6th CAA to the north and the 20th CAA to the south-east.
If Russia did start a war with NATO in the west, the 41st CAAs task would be to lead the advance from Belarus towards the Suwalki gap. This is the Poland-Lithuania border area that separates Belarus from the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. The 41st CAA would likely advance in conjunction with the 11th Army Corps in Kaliningrad; its aim would be to crush the Polish and Lithuanian defences. The 1st Guards Tank Army (based around Moscow), which was previously assigned to these tasks, would now be free as an operational reserve to exploit the advance of the 41st CAA and further push the initial offensive towards the Oder river at the Polish-German border.
Alternatively, if a major war were to be sparked in the Black Sea region rather than in Russias west, the task of the 41st CAA would be to push down on Ukraine from the north, predominantly through Belarus. It would seek to quickly cut Kyiv off from any reinforcements and would take up positions on the west bank of the Dnieper river, which passes through the capital and bisects Ukraine. Because the 41st CAA needs to be ready to serve two operative directions, its deployment and preparatory schemes are more complex than that of other armies which would explain the need for the current exercises.
Importantly, another set of military build-ups accelerated at the beginning of November. These are clearly targeting Ukraine specifically. The number of military assets in Crimea has increased; parts of the 1st Guards Tank Army have been deployed to Maslovka close to the border with the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv in the countrys north-east; and a further concentration of military vehicles appears to have assembled around Rostov (just east of Ukraine). This last move is presumably to enable Russia to infiltrate Ukraines Donbas region, an intention strongly suggested by the high numbers of military transports arriving at the airport in Rostov-on-Don.
The mobilisation of the National Guards Units is a sign the Kremlin is at least considering incursions into Ukraine.
Alongside these build-ups, Russia has mobilised its paramilitary security forces, the National Guards Units, and also sent them to Rostov. Following an invasion of Ukraine, it would use these to control conquered territory, suppress dissent, and install puppet administrations. Their mobilisation is a sign that the Kremlin is at least considering the option of further incursions into Ukraine. Compared to the situation in March and April 2021, when it last moved troops close to the Ukrainian border, Russia seems to be making much less effort to ensure the current assembly is visible. This may hint towards a significantly more serious intention than simply a wish to appear threatening.
Hostile Russian rhetoric towards Ukraine has increased over the last year. Reintegrating Ukraine the whole of Ukraine, not Donbas alone into the Russian Empire is a declared aim of the Russian president. The impression of a weak West, underlined by the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, may convince Moscow that now is the time to wrap up its unfinished business with Kyiv. The Kremlin may have been emboldened in this by its interpretation of the American position on Ukraine, particularly since senior US diplomat Victoria Nulands recent visit to Moscow. That trip likely left the impression that Washington would subscribe to Moscows interpretation of the Minsk agreement.
This is a fundamental error on the Russians part, because this is not the US policy. Yet this perception may combine with Moscows longstanding misinterpretation and twisting of the provisions of Minsk. On 01 November, the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov accused Ukraine of provoking further military reactions by leaving the Minsk agreement. He suggested that Russia will intervene if the Ukrainian government presses ahead with its plans to adopt a law on transitional administration. Moscow dislikes the contents of the draft legislation because they do not effectively allow it to retain the republics it set up in eastern Ukraine, instead promising to transition towards new authorities after elections under Ukrainian law. Russia believes that, via the Minsk agreement, it has a say over Ukrainian domestic legislation and, presumably, the right to wage war if that privilege is violated. No such stipulation, of course, was ever agreed, either as part of the Minsk negotiations or any subsequent format. But Europes silence towards Russias revisionism, and towards the countrys ongoing and lasting breach of the very same agreement by continuously deploying occupation forces in Donbas, only encourages Moscow to think that Europe tacitly accepts its revisionism.
And, finally, current events around Belarus tightly connect Ukraines security situation with the rest of Europe. This relates not only to the immediate stand-offs with migrant arrivals at the Belarus-Poland border, but to these major Russian military redeployments whose full nature is not yet clear. Were it to take Ukraine, an enlarged and confident Russia would then turn its sights on influencing the activities of it new nearest neighbours: the EU and its member states.
The United States is already sending warships to the Black Sea as a signal of deterrence. In April 2021, it deployed fighter jets to Poland from nuclear-assigned squadrons of the US Air Forces in Europe. This was successful in its aim: two days later, Valery Gerasimov, Russias chief of the general staff, called off the exercises taking place close to the Ukrainian border. This is the only language Moscow truly understands. Unfortunately, most of Europe is yet to learn to speak it.
The European Council on Foreign Relations does not take collective positions. ECFR publications only represent the views of its individual authors.
- Trump says he'd 'encourage' Russia to attack NATO allies who don't pay their bills - NPR - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Trump suggests he'd disregard NATO treaty, urge Russian attacks on allies - The Washington Post - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- 'You got to pay!': Trump threatens to 'encourage' Russia to attack NATO allies behind on payments - FRANCE 24 English - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Trump says Russia can do what it wants to Nato allies who pay too little - Financial Times - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- White House calls Trump comments on NATO appalling and unhinged - The Hill - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Trump says Russia could do 'whatever the hell they want' to NATO countries that don't pay their share - Yahoo News - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Trump Says He Gave NATO Allies Warning: Pay In or He'd Urge Russian Aggression - The New York Times - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- White House says Trump comments on refusing to back NATO allies 'unhinged' - The Times of Israel - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- NATO allies warn Hungary not to hold up Sweden's membership as US patience wears thin - The Associated Press - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Trump comments on Russia, NATO 'appalling and unhinged' -White House - Yahoo News Canada - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- NATO Allies Pressure Hungary Over Blocking Sweden's Accession - Voice of America - VOA News - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Trump says he warned NATO: Pay in or he'd tell Russia 'to do whatever the hell they want' - The Spokesman Review - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Vladimir Putin on invading Poland, the war in Ukraine, American 'spies' and Russia joining NATO - Sky News - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Trump says he would support Russia in attacking NATO allies who dont pay' up - Hindustan Times - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Trump says he will encourage Russia to attack NATO states that pay too little - Ukrainska Pravda - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Orbn's party boycotts a session of Hungary's parliament to further stall Sweden's bid to join NATO - The Associated Press - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- US, NATO Reaffirm Need to Support Ukraine - Voice of America - VOA News - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Shocking moment Donald Trump tells cheering crowd he would encourage Russia to ATTACK fellow NATO members for - Daily Mail - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Trump says he warned NATO ally: Spend more on defense or Russia can 'do whatever the hell they want' - WV News - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Trump threatens to 'encourage' attack of NATO members behind on payments - Port Lavaca Wave - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- NATO, Gaza, and the future of US-Turkish relations - European Council on Foreign Relations - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- The Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict demands American diplomacy without NATO overreach - The Hill - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Putin tells Tucker Carlson Bill Clinton agreed that Russia could join NATO - WION - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Trump is slammed for encouraging Russia to attack NATO allies who 'don't pay their dues', with White House bra - Daily Mail - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Trump comments on Russia and NATO appalling and unhinged, says White House spokesperson - Firstpost - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Now we are not safe: Swedens Kurds fear Nato deal has sold them out - The Guardian - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Germany urges Orbn to ratify Sweden's NATO bid as 'a matter of loyalty' - POLITICO Europe - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Ukraine's Military to Receive Double Boost From NATO Allies - Newsweek - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg calls on Europe to ramp up arms production - The Hindu - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Nato chief urges Europe to ramp up arms production to avoid 'decades' of conflict with Russia - The Telegraph - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Russia likely upping jamming on NATO countries to test them: general - Business Insider - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Can NATO and the EU Survive and Thrive? - Gallup - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- NATO chief in DC trying to get blood from a stone - Responsible Statecraft - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- For Europe and NATO, a Russian Invasion Is No Longer Unthinkable - The New York Times - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Sen. Menendez Questions Witnesses During SFRC Subcommittee Hearing About the Possible Process for Ukraine to ... - Senator Menendez - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- NATO should be ambitious with its new Southern Flank Strategy - Atlantic Council - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Hungary parliament to meet on Monday at opposition request with Sweden's NATO bid on agenda - Reuters - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Pressure Grows on Hungary to Approve Swedens NATO Bid - Voice of America - VOA News - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Opinion | As war risks mount, Europe is sluggish to response - The Washington Post - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Opinion | How the E.U. and NATO should respond to Hungarys authoritarian Orban - The Washington Post - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- NATO chief warns 'Taiwan could be tomorrow' at Trump bastion - Nikkei Asia - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- ARTHUR CYR: NATO The Enduring Alliance | Opinion | henryherald.com - Henry Herald - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- NATO chief talks up alliance role in advancing US interests at think tank favored by Trump - Stars and Stripes - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Diplomacy Watch: NATO membership still on the table? - Responsible Statecraft - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- When will Sweden join NATO? | Opinion - Deseret News - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Trump hates NATO: Would he leave Canada out in the cold? - GZERO Media - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- China will learn that using force works if Russia prevails: NATO chief - Business Insider - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- NATO newcomer Finland's presidential election is headed for a runoff - NPR - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Letter | The US and NATO let 'never again' happen again in Ukraine - The Daily Progress - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Why Turkey Waited to Approve Sweden's NATO Membership - Foreign Policy - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Coalition of Three: BiH is grateful for all NATO Support - Sarajevo Times - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Former NATO head: Russia, Ukraine will have moment for potential negotiation after 2024 election - The Hill - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Code Red: How Russia Conquers the Baltics - Center for European Policy Analysis - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Orban Escalates Standoff Over Sweden's Accession to NATO - Yahoo News - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Trump Unleashes His Doubts On NATO: 'We Don't Get So Much Out Of It' - Yahoo News - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Putin to visit NATO member Turkey on 12 February - EURACTIV - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Turkey Acquiesced on Sweden Because It Needs the West - Foreign Policy - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Ex-NATO chief says war in Ukraine could end just like the Korean War - Business Insider - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Secretary General in Florida: NATO makes the United States stronger and more secure - European Interest - February 3rd, 2024 [February 3rd, 2024]
- Sweden's accession will make 'a lot of improvements' to NATO: Swedish FM Billstrm - Talking Europe - FRANCE 24 English - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- Sweden says Hungary sticking to promise over NATO accession - Reuters - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- In Russia's Kaliningrad, isolation and diminished threat to NATO - Stars and Stripes - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- He helped get Finns into NATO, now he gets them dancing. Will DJ Pexi be president? - Reuters - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- Fears of a NATO Withdrawal Rise as Trump Seeks a Return to Power - Yahoo News - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- France is beefing up its support at NATO's eastern flank - The Economist - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- NATO impressed by Israel's genocide tech - The Electronic Intifada - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- Ukraine will get the US aid it needs, former Nato envoy predicts - The National - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- NATO raises the military budget for 2024 to EUR 2.03 bn - TVP World - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- NATO selects companies for innovation hub | Shephard - Shephard News - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- Nato Dating: A new dating trend in town - WION - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- GE wins contract to study propulsion options for NATO next-generation helicopter - Flightglobal - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- NATO Dating: Decoding the Gen-Z relationship trend - WION - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- NATO Ally Fears Russian Invasion and Possible 'Defensive' War - Newsweek - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- Erdogan Ally Links Sweden's NATO Bid to Gaza War in New Hurdle - Bloomberg - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- 'Ukraine will become a member of NATO when all allies agree, and conditions are met' Biden - Yahoo News - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- NATO's Strategy Of Constructive Anarchism Fuels Endless Wars OpEd - Eurasia Review - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- NATO agrees 2024 Budgets, demonstrating Allied Solidarity - Sarajevo Times - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- NATO Raises Concerns Over Proposed Menthol Ban With Federal Officials - CSNews Online - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- NATO increases military budget by 12% to 2.03 billion euros - News.Az - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]
- NATO scouts for defense startups with help of three Boston women - The Boston Globe - December 14th, 2023 [December 14th, 2023]