On March 15, 2011, the people of Syria began marching in the streets demanding an end to the government's oppression. Three days later, President Bashar al-Assad's regime killed five protesters at a march in Daraa. Nobody knows how many have been killed since then. The most recent estimate from a U.N. official was 400,000. It was a number that Staffan de Mistura, the U.N. special envoy for Syria, had come up with on his own it was a guesstimate. That was five years ago.
The story of Syria has been one in which everything that could have gone wrong did. Hindsight is meant to be 20/20; with enough distance, it's supposed to be easy to see the path that should have been taken or the wisdom of the choices that were made. Looking back at just a small sample of the "what ifs" of Syria doesn't lend much credence to that idea.
For example, what if the NATO air campaign that would help oust Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi hadn't begun four days after the first Syrian protest? Maybe the Russians wouldn't have dug in their heels so hard to defend Assad. And maybe the U.S. wouldn't have hesitated to turn its military attention to stopping Syria's atrocities including forced disappearances, rape and torture had it not still been defending the intervention in Libya domestically.
Or what if the Gulf states hadn't sent money and guns to jihadi groups? Would there have been less concern about what Syria post-Assad would look like? And then maybe if the rise of ISIS hadn't provided the perfect cover, the Russians wouldn't have militarily intervened in 2015 against the militants and the remaining Syrian protesters.
What if the U.S. had armed the rebels sooner, rather than give space for the Assad government to wipe out any moderate opposition? Maybe Assad would have been forced to resign. Or then again, what if the U.S. had never tried to arm them at all? Assad still would have remained in power but without so high a death toll, as the hope of intervention may have prolonged the fighting.
Looking back at just a small sample of the "what ifs" of Syria doesn't lend much credence to the idea of hindsight being 20/20.
What if the Obama administration had followed through on its threats after a chemical weapons attack killed 1,400 men, women and children in Ghouta? Could Assad have been cowed into ending his war on his own people? Or was there really no combination of diplomatic pressure and military force that the U.S. would have been willing to exert in the name of protecting civilians?
The only thing that's clear is that there have been no winners after all these years, only those who have lost less. And nobody has lost more than the Syrian people. The U.N. may have stopped counting the dead, but it still keeps track of the living. And as of today, 5.5 million Syrians are refugees, decamped to neighboring countries like Turkey and Lebanon. Another 6.2 million Syrians are internally displaced within Syria. Together, that's over half of Syria's 2011 population, scattered and driven from their homes. And of those still in the country, 80 percent live in poverty. Over 12.4 million Syrians are food insecure, and a further 1.8 million are at risk.
As the war seems nearly won, the question is turning to what to do with the next 10 years. I spoke with Kieren Barnes, Mercy Corps' country director for Syria, about how the NGO is looking to that future. While previously the focus has been on providing immediate humanitarian needs, Barnes told me, now the question will be how to help local partners get the economy back up and running so Syrians can provide for themselves and their families.
Barnes lavished praise on the Syrians whom Mercy Corps works with "'you give us the chance, we will then deliver,' and I've seen that proven time and time again" while still being clear about the difficulties that remain, given the pandemic and the global economic downturn it has caused.
Despite that cautious optimism, it's hard not to feel cynical as we hit this milestone year. I've been covering this war since before it was a war my early days of blogging in 2011 were spent tracking the U.N. Security Council's movements on Syria, parsing draft resolutions in hope of finding the key to the end of the crisis. That day never came, not through years of declining interest, not after Ghouta, not after ISIS's rise and fall.
Maybe this isn't the darkest timeline maybe the alternative choices, the other possible futures for Syria, were worse. Maybe the U.S. would be struggling with another occupation, like in Iraq and Afghanistan. Maybe skirmishes with the Russians would have escalated into a full-on war. Maybe ISIS would still be in control of Syrian territory.
But there's no way to know that for sure. It's the not knowing that's going to eat at me.
Hayes Brown is a writer and editor for MSNBC Daily, where he helps frame the news of the day for readers. He was previously at BuzzFeed News and holds a degree in international relations from Michigan State University.
Go here to read the rest:
Syria's 10 years of crisis offer little optimism and fewer lessons - MSNBC
- Government Oppression Of Climate Protesters Is Rampant. Are You Next? - CleanTechnica - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Invasion Day protests oppose oppression of indigenous Australians, genocide in Gaza - WSWS - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Florida's 'hostile' laws? Five laws NAACP listed in travel advisory. - St. Augustine Record - May 22nd, 2023 [May 22nd, 2023]
- Iran Faces A Huge Budget Deficit It Tries To Conceal - - May 22nd, 2023 [May 22nd, 2023]
- Satyendar Jain taken to Safdarjung Hospital after losing 35 kgs - The Statesman - May 22nd, 2023 [May 22nd, 2023]
- Opinion: Reassessing the approach to Israel | DW | 22.05.2023 - DW - May 22nd, 2023 [May 22nd, 2023]
- Durham Report Is Latest Choose-Your-Own-Reality Adventure - TIME - May 22nd, 2023 [May 22nd, 2023]
- In Conversation with Stan Grant - Honi Soit - May 22nd, 2023 [May 22nd, 2023]
- Rep. Bare: Assembly Republicans' local government funding plan is ... - WisPolitics.com - May 22nd, 2023 [May 22nd, 2023]
- Never Again Is Right Now in Palestine - Jacobin magazine - May 22nd, 2023 [May 22nd, 2023]
- UF community condemns bill defunding DEI initiatives - The Independent Florida Alligator - May 22nd, 2023 [May 22nd, 2023]
- Prices of basic commodities and foods have gone insane in Sierra ... - Sierra Leone Telegraph - May 22nd, 2023 [May 22nd, 2023]
- Don't cancel Gladstone. He was a true friend of freedom at home ... - The Telegraph - May 22nd, 2023 [May 22nd, 2023]
- If you want to do things like gender ideology, go to Berkeley: DeSantis bans diversity, equity and inclusion in Florida colleges - The Mercury News - May 22nd, 2023 [May 22nd, 2023]
- TikTok: The new frontier for political info-wars - DAWN.com - May 22nd, 2023 [May 22nd, 2023]
- Israeli Apartheid - The Legacy of the Ongoing Nakba at 75 [EN/AR ... - ReliefWeb - May 22nd, 2023 [May 22nd, 2023]
- PPP's CEC condemns attacks on army installations, calls for ... - Pakistan Today - May 22nd, 2023 [May 22nd, 2023]
- Tim Scott says Im running for president of the United States in announcement speech live - The Guardian US - May 22nd, 2023 [May 22nd, 2023]
- Opinion | America's Poverty Is Built by Design - POLITICO - May 22nd, 2023 [May 22nd, 2023]
- 'Pity these oppressed random attackers': Inside the thoughts of Canada's bail system - National Post - May 22nd, 2023 [May 22nd, 2023]
- How Can We Resist Book Bans? This Banned Author Has Ideas. - Truthout - May 22nd, 2023 [May 22nd, 2023]
- Owners of Nigeria and their multiple worlds - Guardian Nigeria - May 22nd, 2023 [May 22nd, 2023]
- When People Decide They Want Change, They Will Bring in Change - The Wire - May 22nd, 2023 [May 22nd, 2023]
- 5 Interesting Facts about Simon Bolivar - The Collector - May 22nd, 2023 [May 22nd, 2023]
- China Built Over A Million Uyghurs "Re-Education Camps" In 6 Years: Report - NDTV - May 22nd, 2023 [May 22nd, 2023]
- Queer folk, the hour to save ourselves has come - Daily Maverick - May 22nd, 2023 [May 22nd, 2023]
- Preposterous! Book ban adds bureaucracy and removes parents ... - IndyStar - May 22nd, 2023 [May 22nd, 2023]
- End Jew Hatred: Fight for social justice must be above political fray - The Jerusalem Post - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Political strife, not protest anymore - The Korea JoongAng Daily - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- 'A Man Without a Gun Is Not a Citizen' - The Texas Observer - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- State Department Report Says China Oppressed Tibetan Buddhist ... - Central Tibetan Administration - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Facing Reality on South Africa - Council on Foreign Relations - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Federal Charges of Political Activists Show the Racist and ... - Left Voice - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Age of Disorder || Pakistan on the Brink: Down with Capitalist PDM ... - International Socialist - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Tim Stevenson | Living with the Long Emergency: Rising Fascism ... - Brattleboro Reformer - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Members of new City Council weigh in on water bills - CBS Chicago - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- DIIR Statement on 28th Anniversary of Enforced Disappearance of ... - Central Tibetan Administration - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- KAN-WIN shares timeline of gender-based violence toward Asian ... - Daily Northwestern - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Alleged leaker fixated on guns and envisioned 'race war' - The Washington Post - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Employment and Labour pays tribute to Dr Dennis George - South African Government - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Opinion | Trump Cannot Be Unseen - The New York Times - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Toronto to rally against Homophobia, Biphobia, and Transphobia ... - NOW Toronto - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Election 2023: Te Pti Mori accuses Prime Minister Chris Hipkins of 'oppression' for telling parties to 'be careful' with demands - Newshub - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- What's the current state of LGBTQ rights in Europe? - Euronews - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Baptist Health Foundation Receives $3 Million Gift from the Jos ... - South Florida Hospital News - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- The Politics and Moral Economics of Seun Kutis Police Assault - Tekedia - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Is a temporary coalition of anger against the old regime a basis for ... - Sierra Leone Telegraph - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Mexico: against 'neoliberalism' or capitalism? The final year of ... - In Defence of Marxism - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- White Christian Nationalism and the 2023 Montana Legislature ... - Daily Montanan - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Left-wing lawmakers press for federal reparations for Black Americans: 'We're here to demand it' - Fox News - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Underground cyphers are helping young Kashmiris reclaim their ... - Huck Magazine - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Tory MP uses controversial term connected to antisemitic conspiracies - The Jerusalem Post - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Fijis 1987 coup: Why did Prime Minister Rabuka apologise to the Indo-Fijian community? - The Indian Express - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Declaration on the Migrant Crisis: Socialists From the U.S., Mexico ... - Left Voice - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- WNBA star Brittney Griner standing and listening to national anthem - Gainesville Sun - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Imran Khan to unveil next plan of action at a rally on Thursday - ANI News - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Delta Youths Threaten Showdown Over Exclusion In Multi-Billion ... - SaharaReporters.com - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Remarks by Homeland Security Advisor Dr. Liz Sherwood-Randall ... - The White House - May 2nd, 2023 [May 2nd, 2023]
- Are some human rights more important than others? Religious ... - Jacksonville Journal-Courier - May 2nd, 2023 [May 2nd, 2023]
- Postcolonial Plague: The Legacy of Apartheid South Africa in ... - Brown Political Review - May 2nd, 2023 [May 2nd, 2023]
- UN expert urges Japan to step up pressure on Myanmar junta - OHCHR - May 2nd, 2023 [May 2nd, 2023]
- CSIS confirms to MP that he and family were targeted by China - The Globe and Mail - May 2nd, 2023 [May 2nd, 2023]
- Opposition leader says govt sent a bureaucrat to talk with calan - Duvar English - May 2nd, 2023 [May 2nd, 2023]
- The Badger Herald Editorial Board: The bounds of free speech The ... - The Badger Herald - May 2nd, 2023 [May 2nd, 2023]
- AIbom NLC to Set up Monitoring Team on Petroleum Products - THISDAY Newspapers - May 2nd, 2023 [May 2nd, 2023]
- Amplifying Iranian Voices: The Call for Freedom and Democracy ... - National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) - May 2nd, 2023 [May 2nd, 2023]
- As inequality deepens, who will rewrite the rules? - Al Jazeera English - May 2nd, 2023 [May 2nd, 2023]
- Discover the Brilliance of George Orwell: Books That Will Inspire You - Economic Times - May 2nd, 2023 [May 2nd, 2023]
- Nature has way of settling scores, says UP CM Yogi Adityanath on Atiq Ahmad's turf - Times of India - May 2nd, 2023 [May 2nd, 2023]
- Tens of thousands hold Labor Day rallies nationwide - The Korea Herald - May 2nd, 2023 [May 2nd, 2023]
- Incoming Nigerian Government Must Improve Poverty Wage ... - SaharaReporters.com - May 2nd, 2023 [May 2nd, 2023]
- Can the European Union Tackle Afghanistan's Crises? - The Diplomat - May 2nd, 2023 [May 2nd, 2023]
- Iran sees nationwide protests, night rallies marking Int'l Labor Day | - The Peoples Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI) - May 2nd, 2023 [May 2nd, 2023]
- G20: Responsibilities of the people of PoK - ANI News - May 2nd, 2023 [May 2nd, 2023]
- From IWD to May Day: Connecting working women's struggles - Spring Magazine - May 2nd, 2023 [May 2nd, 2023]
- 1 May 2023 || The Working Class is Back! ISA - International Socialist - May 2nd, 2023 [May 2nd, 2023]
- Are the Marxists on to something? Catholic World Report - Catholic World Report - May 2nd, 2023 [May 2nd, 2023]
- Manoj Kumar Jha and Ghazala Jamil write: Why Pratap Bhanu Mehta is wrong about social justice politics and caste census - The Indian Express - May 2nd, 2023 [May 2nd, 2023]
- Generational crimes are being committed thick and fast. No wonder Australian kids dont vote conservative - The Guardian - May 2nd, 2023 [May 2nd, 2023]
- A Proclamation on Jewish American Heritage Month, 2023 - U.S. ... - US Embassy and Consulate in Poland - May 2nd, 2023 [May 2nd, 2023]