When gambling on the NFL, try "betting the middle" – Colorado Springs Gazette

The 2021 NFL season is less than seven weeks away. We have not seen any preseason games yet, but the betting markets are already starting to move. The market where the movements have been the most volatile is the player prop market. This is not a major surprise as it is often the softest market when compared to win totals and divisional, conference and Super Bowl winner markets. It is also the market where we can find the largest difference from one sportsbook to another.

The fact that the payouts and prop numbers are so different from book-to-book is how we can find value and turn a profit. The wide difference in pricing and yardage prop numbers is a blessing for sports bettors. A savvy bettor who does the homework can put him or herself in a position to get the best number in the market on every bet. This is a big key to having a profitable season wagering. It might not sound like a big deal, but the difference between a $100 bet at -110 and -120 is a little over $7. If you are betting multiples of $100 per bet or making a lot of bets throughout a season, that $7 per $100 adds up to real money left on the table quickly.

Knowing the best numbers in the market allows a gambler to make bets that have limited risk, but huge upside. I know this sounds like a gimmick, but in the industry it is called betting the middle, or middling for short.

Here is an example available in the market right now: On FOX Bet, Joe Mixon has a rushing prop of 1,165 yards with the under paying -110. On BetMGM, he has a rushing yardage prop of 975 yards. The over is also paying -110. That is a 190-yard difference between the two numbers. Anything over 975 and you cash the bet at BetMGM. Anything under 1,165 and you cash the wager on FOX Bet. Worst-case scenario, you win one bet and make $91 per $100 and lose the $100 from the other bet for a loss of $9 per $100. The upside if both hit is that you make $91 on both bets and walk away with a big win. By playing both sides of the prop on different books at numbers with a massive difference in yardage, you effectively allowed yourself to take a small risk of loss and have a big upside if you land on that middle. The bigger the middle you can find, the better the odds are for you to cash both of those tickets.

You can play a few different players yardage props this way and only need to be right on one to turn a profit. This is due to the small risk and potential for a big upside reward on each of those bets. The numbers on these books change based on how money is coming in on one side or the other. The size of potential middle opportunities tends to shrink the closer we get to kickoff of the actual season. If you want to get the biggest middles and the best prices, the time to start making those wagers is now. The longer you wait, the fewer opportunities will be available to do it and the worse the price will be on each side of the bet.

The Prop Shop at FTNBets.com shows you every prop number available for every book that is active in your state. Just type in a players name in the search tool and you can look at the best and worst numbers to see if the difference is large enough to warrant betting the middle.

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When gambling on the NFL, try "betting the middle" - Colorado Springs Gazette