Donald Trumps upcoming Texas two-step will give him the chance to tout his Lone Star endorsements for the May 24 GOP state primary runoffs.
Trumps visit, however, is more personal.
Still the most influential voice in the Republican Party, the former president has an eye toward 2024, when he could make another run for the White House. And like his previous presidential runs, Texas would play a critical role.
This is perceived as a very strong base for him and he needs to keep the wires alive to tap into that Texas energy for him, said Bill Miller, an Austin-based Republican consultant and lobbyist. If the hard core here in some way should say, Yeah, I really like him, but ..., thats not what he wants. Hes got to keep that but right out of the conversation.
On May 9, Trump is scheduled to headline a Dallas dinner to raise money for Republican congressional candidates. The National Republican Congressional Committee began rounding up donors for that about a month ago.
Trump also has announced an all-day rally in Austin for May 14. Its part of his American Freedom Tour, a series of campaign-style events that seem designed to keep his profile high and to generate income.
Tickets to the Dallas dinner are treated as campaign contributions, but tickets for the American Freedom Tour event are not campaign donations, which suggests that proceeds go to the organizers and speakers.
Trump will likely use both events to tout his Texas endorsements. Trump-backed candidates are part of five GOP runoffs, most notably Attorney General Ken Paxton, whos running for a third term against Land Commissioner George P. Bush.
Despite the stakes, Trump has more than Texas runoffs on his mind.
He says he loves Texas. The Lone Star State has helped propel his political career. For his presidential bids, Trump had the help of prolific fundraisers like Dallas businessman Roy Bailey, who served as co-chairman of Trumps national finance committee. Dallas businessman Tommy Hicks Jr., an early Trump supporter, is now co-chairman of the Republican National Committee. Bailey said more money came out of Texas for Trump than any other state.
In 2020, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick was Trumps Texas campaign chairman. And Paxton filed the ill-fated and critics say ill-advised lawsuit to overturn election results in key battleground states.
Most of Trumps Texas rallies have been well-attended spectacles and a celebration of his movement. Where else will you find a woman draped in a dress decorated with photos of Trump?
If he runs for president in 2024, Trump needs Texas Republicans to maintain their energetic support for him, as well as the continued doling of campaign cash.
Thats why the May visit wont be his last trip to Texas, particularly if he plans to stay on the national political scene.
Meanwhile, other Republicans, such as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, will continue to position themselves as potential 2024 presidential hopefuls.
Then theres Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, who this year wants to beat Democratic challenger Beto ORourke by 10 or more percentage points to help propel him as a possible 2024 candidate for president or vice president.
DeSantis and Abbott have been dueling each other on the most provocative new law or public policy. The Florida governor recently signed the Parental Rights in Education law, which prohibits instruction related to gender identity or sexual orientation in kindergarten through third grade. The law, which critics have dubbed dont say gay legislation, would possibly restrict such instruction for older kids, according to the Tampa Bay Times.
Last week Abbott made a bold move of his own. He announced that Texas officials would begin busing migrants to the steps of the U.S. Capitol and inspecting vehicles driven in from Mexico. He called the move an unprecedented response to illegal immigration.
Abbotts latest move escalates his clash with President Joe Biden over how to handle illegal immigration. The governor has sent thousands of state police and Texas National Guard soldiers to the border to arrest migrants on trespassing charges. In a nod to Trump, Abbott also has committed $1 billion to erecting a barrier along the states border with Mexico. That came after Biden issued an order to discontinue wall construction begun by Trump.
Critics, including ORourke, have called Abbotts latest border tactic a political stunt.
The maneuvers by potential 2024 candidates wont matter, however, if Trump is a candidate in 2024. The way he keeps beating a path to Texas, it appears another Trump presidential bid is on the horizon. And entering 2022 Trumps various campaign accounts had totaled $122 million. While that money technically cant be rolled over into a 2024 presidential campaign, he can spend it now.
Until and unless he says hes not running, Trump is the Republican front-runner for 2024.
Republicans want to win, Miller said. Theyre going to take a long hard look at Trump. It wont be automatic. Hell have to work for it, but hes the front-runner for the nomination.
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