Former President Donald J. Trump is dominating his rivals for the Republican presidential nomination, leading his nearest challenger, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, by a landslide 37 percentage points nationally among the likely Republican primary electorate, according to the first New York Times/Siena College poll of the 2024 campaign.
Mr. Trump held decisive advantages across almost every demographic group and region and in every ideological wing of the party, the survey found, as Republican voters waved away concerns about his escalating legal jeopardy. He led by wide margins among men and women, younger and older voters, moderates and conservatives, those who went to college and those who didnt, and in cities, suburbs and rural areas.
The poll shows that some of Mr. DeSantiss central campaign arguments that he is more electable than Mr. Trump, and that he would govern more effectively have so far failed to break through. Even Republicans motivated by the type of issues that have fueled Mr. DeSantiss rise, such as fighting radical woke ideology, favored the former president.
Overall, Mr. Trump led Mr. DeSantis 54 percent to 17 percent. No other candidate topped 3 percent support in the poll.
Below those lopsided top-line figures were other ominous signs for Mr. DeSantis. He performed his weakest among some of the Republican Partys biggest and most influential constituencies. He earned only 9 percent support among voters at least 65 years old and 13 percent of those without a college degree. Republicans who described themselves as very conservative favored Mr. Trump by a 50-point margin, 65 percent to 15 percent.
Still, no other serious Trump challenger has emerged besides Mr. DeSantis. Former Vice President Mike Pence, the former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley and Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina each scored 3 percent support. Chris Christie, the former New Jersey governor, and Vivek Ramaswamy, an entrepreneur, each received support from just 2 percent of those polled.
Yet even if all those candidates disappeared and Mr. DeSantis got a hypothetical one-on-one race against Mr. Trump, he would still lose by a two-to-one margin, 62 percent to 31 percent, the poll found. That is a stark reminder that, for all the fretting among anti-Trump forces that the party would divide itself in a repeat of 2016, Mr. Trump is poised to trounce even a unified opposition.
The survey comes less than six months before the first 2024 primary contest and before a single debate. In an era of American politics defined by its volatility, Mr. Trumps legal troubles his trials threaten to overlap with primary season pose an especially unpredictable wild card.
For now, though, Mr. Trump appears to match both the surly mood of the Republican electorate, 89 percent of whom see the nation as headed in the wrong direction, and Republicans desire to take the fight to the Democrats.
He might say mean things and make all the men cry because all the men are wearing your wifes underpants and you cant be a man anymore, David Green, 69, a retail manager in Somersworth, N.H., said of Mr. Trump. You got to be a little sissy and cry about everything. But at the end of the day, you want results. Donald Trumps my guy. Hes proved it on a national level.
Both Mr. Trump and Mr. DeSantis maintain strong overall favorable ratings from Republicans, 76 percent and 66 percent. That Mr. DeSantis is still so well liked after a drumbeat of news coverage questioning his ability to connect with voters, and more than $20 million in attack ads from a Trump super PAC, demonstrates a certain resiliency. His political team has argued that his overall positive image with G.O.P. voters provides a solid foundation on which to build.
But the intensity of the former presidents support is a key difference as 43 percent of Republicans have a very favorable opinion of Mr. Trump a cohort that he carries by an overwhelming 92 percent to 7 percent margin in a one-on-one race with Mr. DeSantis.
By contrast, Mr. DeSantis is stuck in an effective tie with Mr. Trump, edging him 49 percent to 48 percent, among the smaller share of primary voters (25 percent) who view the Florida governor very favorably.
In interviews with poll respondents, a recurring theme emerged. They like Mr. DeSantis; they love Mr. Trump.
DeSantis, I have high hopes. But as long as Trumps there, Trumps the man, said Daniel Brown, 58, a retired technician at a nuclear plant from Bumpass, Va.
If he wasnt running against Trump, DeSantis would be my very next choice, said Stanton Strohmenger, 48, a maintenance technician in Washington Township, Ohio.
A number of respondents interviewed drew a distinction between Mr. DeSantiss accomplishments in Tallahassee and Mr. Trumps in the White House.
Trump has proven his clout, said Mallory Butler, 39, of Polk County, Fla. And DeSantis has, but in a much smaller arena.
The truly anti-Trump faction of the Republican electorate appears to hover near one in four G.O.P. voters, hardly enough to dethrone him. Only 19 percent of the electorate said Mr. Trumps behavior after his 2020 defeat threatened American democracy. And only 17 percent see the former president as having committed any serious federal crimes, despite his indictment by a federal grand jury on charges of mishandling classified documents and his receipt of a so-called target letter in the separate election interference case being brought by the office of the special counsel, Jack Smith.
I think Donald Trump is going to carry a lot of baggage to the election with him, said Hilda Bulla, 68, of Davidson County, N.C., who supports Mr. DeSantis.
Yet Mr. Trumps grip on the Republican Party is so strong, the Times/Siena poll found, that in a head-to-head contest with Mr. DeSantis, Mr. Trump still received 22 percent among voters who believe he has committed serious federal crimes a greater share than the 17 percent that Mr. DeSantis earned from the entire G.O.P. electorate.
Mr. DeSantis has made taking on woke institutions a centerpiece of his political identity. But when given a choice between a hypothetical candidate who prioritized defeating radical woke ideology or one who was focused on law and order in our streets and at the border, only 24 percent said they would be more likely to support the candidate focused on fighting woke issues.
Equally problematic for Mr. DeSantis is that those woke-focused voters still preferred Mr. Trump, 61 percent to 36 percent.
The ability to defeat Mr. Biden and to enact a conservative agenda is at the core of Mr. DeSantiss appeal to Republicans. He has warned that Mr. Trump has saddled the party with a culture of losing in the Trump years and has held up his resounding 2022 re-election in the once purple state of Florida as a model for the G.O.P. As governor, he has pushed through a sweeping set of conservative priorities that have sharply reoriented the state and promised he would bring the same policymaking zeal to the White House.
Yet these arguments do not appear to be working. A strong majority of Republicans surveyed, 58 percent, said it was Mr. Trump, not Mr. DeSantis, who was best described by the phrase able to beat Joe Biden. And again, it was Mr. Trump, by a lopsided 67 percent to 22 percent margin, who was seen more as the one to get things done.
Mr. DeSantis narrowly edged Mr. Trump on being seen as likable and moral. Interestingly, the share of Republicans who said Mr. Trump was more fun than Mr. DeSantis (54 percent to 16 percent) almost perfectly mirrored the overall horse race.
He does not come across with humor, Sandra Reher, 75, a retired teacher in Farmingdale, N.J., said of Mr. DeSantis. He comes across as a a good Christian man, wonderful family man. But he doesnt have that fire, if you will, that Trump has.
Increasingly on the trail, Mr. DeSantis is calling attention to his blue-collar roots and his decision to serve in the military as reasons voters should support him as he runs against a self-professed billionaire. But the poll showed Mr. Trump lapping Mr. DeSantis among likely Republican primary voters earning less than $50,000, 65 percent to 9 percent.
As of now, Mr. DeSantiss few demographic refuges places where he is losing by smaller margins are more upscale pockets of the electorate. He trailed Mr. Trump by a less daunting 12 points among white voters with college degrees, 37 to 25 percent. Among those earning more than $100,000, Mr. DeSantis was behind by 23 points, half the deficit he faced among the lowest earners.
The fractured field appears to be preventing Mr. DeSantis from consolidating the support of such voters: In the hypothetical one-on-one race, Mr. DeSantis was statistically tied with Mr. Trump among white college-educated voters.
On a range of issues, the poll suggests it will be difficult for Mr. DeSantis to break through against Mr. Trump on policy arguments alone.
In the head-to-head matchup, Mr. Trump was far ahead of Mr. DeSantis among Republicans who accept transgender people as the gender they identify with, and among those who do not; among those who want to fight corporations that promote woke left ideology, and among those who prefer to stay out of what businesses do; among those who want to send more military and economic aid to Ukraine, and among those who do not; among those who want to keep Social Security and Medicare benefits as they are, and among those who want to take steps to reduce the budget deficit.
Mr. Trump leads Mr. DeSantis among Republicans who believe abortion should always be legal, and among those who believe it should always be illegal.
Mr. DeSantis signed a strict six-week abortion ban that Mr. Trump has criticized as too harsh. Yet Mr. Trump enjoyed the support of 70 percent of Republicans who said they strongly supported such a measure.
Marcel Paba, a 22-year-old server in Miami, said he liked what Mr. DeSantis had done for his state but didnt think the governor could overcome the enthusiasm for Mr. Trump.
There are just more die-hard fans of Trump than there are of Ron DeSantis. Even in Florida, Mr. Paba said. I dont see people wearing a Ron DeSantis hat anywhere, you know?
Camille Baker, Alyce McFadden and Ruth Igielnik contributed reporting.
The New York Times/Siena College poll of 932 voters in the likely Republican primary electorate was conducted by telephone using live operators from July 23 to 27, 2023. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.96 percentage points. Cross-tabs and methodology are available here.
See the article here:
Trump Crushing DeSantis and G.O.P. Rivals, Times/Siena Poll Finds - The New York Times
- 'Donald Trump Did This': How to Beat MAGA on Border Security - The Bulwark - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Potential Trump running mate JD Vance and Donald Trump Jr. have become so close that they text or talk on a 'nearly ... - Business Insider - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Trump Second Term: How the World and U.S. Allies Can Prepare for the Election - Foreign Policy - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Poll: Biden and Trump supporters sharply divided by the media they consume - NBC News - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Master Calendar of Trump Court Dates: Criminal and Civil Cases - Just Security - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Donald Trump's Sleepy, Sleazy Criminal Trial - The New Yorker - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Trump, GOP seize on campus protests to depict chaos under Biden - The Washington Post - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- UK briefing: How Donald Trump plans to survive hush money trial with his campaign intact newsletter - The Guardian - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Opinion | We Are Talking About the Manhattan Case Against Trump All Wrong - The New York Times - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Election 2024: Biden jokes, Trump still leads and updates from the Sunday shows. - The New York Times - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Donald Trump Pans White House Correspondents' Dinner: 'Colin Jost BOMBED' - The Daily Beast - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Trump's Trial Could Bring a Rarity: Consequences for His Words - The New York Times - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Donald Trump Bemoans Really Bad WHCD, Biden & Colin Jost After All Mock Much Indicted Ex-POTUS - Deadline - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- The Supreme Court's epic failure in dealing with Trump's cases - The Hill - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Donald Trump: In America's most important swing state, a key Biden group wants to hand the presidency to Trump. - Slate - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Donald Trump Is Being Ritually Humiliated in Court - The New Yorker - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Joe Biden trails Donald Trump in new national poll on 2024 election - USA TODAY - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Amid Cases on Abortion and Trump, Roberts Reflects on Supreme Court's Work - The New York Times - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Donald Trump Is Used to the Finer Things in Life. At the Courthouse, 'He's Miserable.' - The Wall Street Journal - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- How Trumps Rhetoric at Rallies Has Escalated - The New York Times - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- The Supreme Court Appears Poised to Protect the Presidencyand Donald Trump - The New Yorker - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- The Supreme Court seems divided over Donald Trump's immunity - The Economist - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- John Dean Says 1 Thing 'Keeping Me On The Edge Of My Seat' In Trump Trial - Yahoo! Voices - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Five Moments That Have Defined Donald Trump's Trial So Far - The New York Times - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- How Trumps trial is playing, politically - The Washington Post - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Opinion | The Ukraine aid vote helps, but U.S. allies complacency would be unwise - The Washington Post - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Hey, SCOTUS your hypocrisy is showing - The Hill - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Bill Barr Is Happy to Debase Himself for Donald Trump Again Mother Jones - Mother Jones - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- The Supreme Court is likely to place Donald Trump above the law in its immunity case - Vox.com - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- RFK is openly gunning for Trump voters now and Republicans are starting to worry - Salon - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Trump Pushes Immigration Conspiracy Theories and Mass Deportations - The New York Times - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Nikki Haley makes surprise appearance on SNL, mocking Donald Trump and Joe Biden - NPR - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Trump feud with UAW reaches fever pitch - The Hill - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Donald Trump tightens his grip on GOP, bolsters ties with Mike Johnson - USA TODAY - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- 1/31/24 - 2024 Matchups: Biden Opens Up Lead Over Trump In Head-To-Head, Quinnipiac University National Poll ... - Quinnipiac University Poll - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Here's how 2 sentences in the Constitution rose from obscurity to ensnare Donald Trump - Yahoo News - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Donald Trump floats tariff of more than 60% on imports from China and denies it would start a trade war - Fortune - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Jeffries on House Republicans: Wholly owned subsidiaries of Donald Trump - The Hill - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Ex-DOJ Official Says He's 'Now At The Freakout Stage' Over 1 Donald Trump Case - Yahoo News - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Nikki Haley to GOP: Let's wait to see if Donald Trump is convicted - USA TODAY - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Why Supreme Court appeal will be no 'open mic night' for Donald Trump - USA TODAY - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Nikki Haley hits Donald Trump during 'SNL' sketch ahead of SC primary - USA TODAY - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Donald Trump's legal fees are draining his campaign funds - The Economist - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Donald Trump Mentions These Names When Asked About Vice Presidential Picks - NDTV - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Trump's lead over Biden may be smaller than it looks - The Economist - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Tory rising star described Donald Trump as 'refreshing' - The Independent - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Joe Biden v Donald Trump - where contest will be won and lost - BBC.com - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Donald Trump's fed trial on election interference postponed from March - USA TODAY - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Inside Trump's growing influence over congressional Republicans - POLITICO - POLITICO - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Federal judge postpones Trump's March 4 election interference trial - NPR - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Trump Says He Would Not Reappoint Powell as Fed Chair if Elected - Bloomberg - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- I Prosecuted Donald Trump and Won. Here's How It's Done. - The Daily Beast - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Donald Trump Loses London Case Against Ex-MI6 Spy Over Kremlin Dossier - Bloomberg - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- After Speedy Start, Appeals Court Slows Down on Trump Immunity Decision - The New York Times - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Donald Trump and UAW President Shawn Fain exchange barbs: 'Get rid of this dope' - USA TODAY - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Donald Trump dispels rumors that he reached out to RFK Jr for VP: Never happened - Fox News - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- How Donald Trump Got Disqualified From The Ballot And His Entire Candidacy Wound Up Before The Supreme Court - HuffPost - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Trump Says Nikki Haley Is Unlikely to Be His Running Mate - The New York Times - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Donald Trump Goes From Calm To Indignant In Newly Released Deposition Video Of Civil Fraud Lawsuit - HuffPost - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Trump: Haley 'probably ... is not going to be chosen as the vice president' - POLITICO - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Trump returns to New Hampshire as primary nears - The Washington Post - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Boris Johnson: Trump's return could be 'big win for the world' - POLITICO Europe - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Zelenskyy invites Trump to Kyiv POLITICO - POLITICO Europe - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- 'New Hampshire Is Close to a Make-or-Break for Keeping the Nomination Out of Donald Trump's Hands.' - POLITICO - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Trump's pitch in New Hampshire is more about Nikki Haley as he hopes for big win - NPR - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Donald Trump's tax cuts would add to American growthand debt - The Economist - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Donald Trump's populism is turning off corporate donors - The Economist - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Why DeSantis Says Trump's Romp in Iowa Is Actually a Sign of His Weakness - The New York Times - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- The GOP Is Already Clashing Over Trump's VP Pick - POLITICO - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- There is still a way to stop Donald Trump but time is running out - The Guardian - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- The Davos Consensus: Donald Trump Will Win Re-Election - The New York Times - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Maine Secretary of State to Appeal Ruling on Her Decision to Exclude Trump From Ballot - The New York Times - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Vice President Harris says she's 'scared as heck' that Donald Trump could win - The Associated Press - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- What is the point of coming second to Donald Trump? - The Economist - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Thousands Sign Christian Petition Urging Bishops Not to Back Donald Trump - Newsweek - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Why Donald Trump Is Facing E. Jean Carroll in Court a Second Time - The New York Times - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Donald Trump Claims He Will Never Allow Creation of CBDC in the US if Reelected - Yahoo Finance - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Keller @ Large: What Donald Trump's win in Iowa means for the presidential race - CBS Boston - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Donald Trump tries to twist felony charges, lawsuits after Iowa win - USA TODAY - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Donald Trump Just Incriminated Himself on Truth Social: Legal Analyst - Newsweek - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]