Four years ago, on the threshold of a critical election year that would decide whether Donald Trump won another term in the White House, I asked a German friend, Constanze Stelzenmller, of the Brookings Institution, to come up with one of those long Teutonic words for the state of constant, gnawing anxiety that Trumps disruptive tenure inspired. She came back with a true mouthful, a thirty-three-letter concoction that pretty much summed it up: Trumpregierungsschlamasselschmerz. Helpfully, she suggested that it would be fine to shorten this to Trumpschmerz. It means something like Trump-worry, but on steroids. At the time, I defined it as the continuous pain or ache of the soul that comes from the excessive contemplation of the slow-motion Trump car crash. Well, here we go again. Headed into 2024, America is stuck with another bad case of Trumpschmerz.
At the start of this year, it was still possible to look at the facts and avoid falling back into this dark place. There were reasonable expectations that something, somehow could prevent the looming rematch between Trump and Joe Biden, who succeeded Trump but has never been acknowledged by the ex-President and millions of his followers as Americas legitimate leader. Perhaps Trump would finally face consequences for his unprecedented efforts to overturn the 2020 election results. Perhaps a strong Republican challenger would emerge against him. Perhaps Biden, who spent the first year of his tenure more unpopular than any other President in the history of modern pollingaside from Trumpand is already the oldest leader in U.S. history, would step aside in favor of a younger Democrat, rather than seek a second term. But none of that happened.
The most extraordinary development in American politics this year was, without a doubt, the indictment of Trump in four separate criminal cases, totalling ninety-one alleged felonies. He is not only the first former President charged with a crime; he ends 2023 accused by the federal government of essentially mounting a coup against that government. And yet the charges against Trumpwhich were hardly a foregone conclusion a year agoserved not to clarify but to further confuse our muddled politics. Will the trials overshadow the 2024 race or shape its outcome? Will they even take place before the voting? What happens if hes convicted and wins anyway? All we can say definitively, so far, is that the indictments proved to be a political boon for him with his Republican Party. With just a few weeks until the beginning of the 2024 primaries, Trump now has what looks to be an insurmountable lead in the G.O.P. race, a lead that has only risen with each new case filed against him. When 2023 started, he was at about forty-six per cent among Republicans in the FiveThirtyEight average of national polls. Today, he is drawing more than sixty-one per cent.
A year ago, the governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, coming off a nineteen-point relection victory in a formerly competitive state, and boasting a hundred-million-dollar-plus war chest, looked to be a real prospect to knock off Trump. But he fared just about as well as Jeb Bush, another Florida governor with a hundred million dollars to spend against Trump. Which is to say: his candidacy has been a total dud. Trump never even had to stoop to appearing on a stage with his rivals, who proved to be so afraid of the Trump-loving Republican electorate that they rarely so much as criticized the man they were theoretically running against. The defining moment for this field of craven also-rans came during their first debate, in August, when the Fox News moderators asked for a show of hands as to who would support the indicted ex-Presidentthe elephant not in the room, as Foxs Bret Baier called himwere he to receive the nomination. Virtually all of them indicated they would. Needless to say, the two dissenters, Chris Christie and Asa Hutchinson, have no chance.
As of years end, the one non-Trump candidate to see her fortunes rise in the G.O.P. race has been the former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley. Despite having served in Trumps Cabinet, she is often described as the closest thing the Party has left to its pre-Trump establishmenta hawkish, Chamber of Commerce type who is neither a culture warrior nor a MAGA acolyte. Talk about defining deviancy down. Haley is no avatar of the status quo ante but proof of how debased the party of Abraham Lincoln has become in its thrall to Trump. Just this week, Haley, when asked what caused the Civil War, told a voter in New Hampshire that it was about government freedoms and what people could and couldnt do. When the voter expressed astonishment that her answer had not included mention of slavery, she replied, What do you want me to say about slavery?
Trump, of course, could not resist the chance to dunk on Haley. Not ready for prime time, he crowed in response to her Civil War flub. (On Thursday morning, Haley said, Of course the Civil War was about slavery.) Trump has ended the year, meanwhile, striking his usual statesmanlike note. In a Christmas Day social-media post, his message to his opponents was MAY THEY ROT IN HELL, followed by the incongruous but nonetheless perfectly Trumpy conclusion, AGAIN, MERRY CHRISTMAS.
The only surprise is that anyone is surprised by this. In the first week of March, months before he was indicted by the Justice Department special counsel Jack Smith, Trump gave a speech to CPAC in which he promised a run centered on the theme of retribution for all the grievances nursed by him and his followers. Despite the current conventional wisdom that the spate of indictments against Trump over the spring and summer allowed him to reinvent his campaign around a narrative of his own persecution, revenge was his mission well in advance of the court cases; 2024 was always going to be about seeking payback. The list of wrongs never mattered as much as the fact that he would have a litany of them to recite. The rigged election. The martyrdom of his supporters who stormed the Capitol on January 6, 2021, and were sent to jail for it. His own undermining by the deep state.
His message then, as later in the year, was simple and messianic: This is the final battle. The audience cheered and hooted and clapped. They were, like the bulk of the Republican Party, not Never Trumpers but Always Trumpers. The story of 2023 turned out to be not the G.O.P.s search for another Trump but the persistent preference of a large majority of Republicans for the one they already have.
But if Trumpschmerz is our destiny again in 2024, the ex-President has also benefitted from his foes in 2023. DeSantis, despite the early hype from Fox News and the hopes of the Republican donor class, proved that negative charisma and terrible political judgment are not enough to run for President. He thought he was going to ride attacks on Mickey Mouse to the White House. Seriously?
Bidens miscalculation was not about Trumpthe President has always been dead serious about the threat posed by his predecessor and by the party that embraces himbut about himself. Having aspired, for the better part of four decades, to the office he improbably won on his third try, Biden has been reluctant to relinquish it in favor of a younger Democrat. His theory of the case seems to be rooted in his belief that he, and he alone, can insure Trumps defeat. But that rationale has become harder to sustain as his polling has grown worse and worse. As of the end of the year, Biden is, at best, tied with Trump; the Real Clear Politics average has him down 2.3 points.
Trumps victory is by no means assured. It may well be that predictions of him winning in 2024 will turn out to be just as wrong as the forecasts of a recession were at the start of 2023. But the past few years of Trump, Trump, Trump have taught me, if nothing else, that hoping for the best is not necessarily a winning strategy. With American democracy on the line, Im taking the only defensible position toward the New Year: full-scale dread. I plan to pull up the covers and hide under my pillow as long as possible come January. Its going to be a long twelve months.
Visit link:
The Year We Stopped Being Able to Pretend About Trump - The New Yorker
- Trump Pushes Immigration Conspiracy Theories and Mass Deportations - The New York Times - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Nikki Haley makes surprise appearance on SNL, mocking Donald Trump and Joe Biden - NPR - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Trump feud with UAW reaches fever pitch - The Hill - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Donald Trump tightens his grip on GOP, bolsters ties with Mike Johnson - USA TODAY - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- 1/31/24 - 2024 Matchups: Biden Opens Up Lead Over Trump In Head-To-Head, Quinnipiac University National Poll ... - Quinnipiac University Poll - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Here's how 2 sentences in the Constitution rose from obscurity to ensnare Donald Trump - Yahoo News - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Donald Trump floats tariff of more than 60% on imports from China and denies it would start a trade war - Fortune - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Jeffries on House Republicans: Wholly owned subsidiaries of Donald Trump - The Hill - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Ex-DOJ Official Says He's 'Now At The Freakout Stage' Over 1 Donald Trump Case - Yahoo News - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Nikki Haley to GOP: Let's wait to see if Donald Trump is convicted - USA TODAY - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Why Supreme Court appeal will be no 'open mic night' for Donald Trump - USA TODAY - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Nikki Haley hits Donald Trump during 'SNL' sketch ahead of SC primary - USA TODAY - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Donald Trump's legal fees are draining his campaign funds - The Economist - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Donald Trump Mentions These Names When Asked About Vice Presidential Picks - NDTV - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Trump's lead over Biden may be smaller than it looks - The Economist - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Tory rising star described Donald Trump as 'refreshing' - The Independent - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Joe Biden v Donald Trump - where contest will be won and lost - BBC.com - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Donald Trump's fed trial on election interference postponed from March - USA TODAY - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Inside Trump's growing influence over congressional Republicans - POLITICO - POLITICO - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Federal judge postpones Trump's March 4 election interference trial - NPR - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Trump Says He Would Not Reappoint Powell as Fed Chair if Elected - Bloomberg - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- I Prosecuted Donald Trump and Won. Here's How It's Done. - The Daily Beast - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Donald Trump Loses London Case Against Ex-MI6 Spy Over Kremlin Dossier - Bloomberg - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- After Speedy Start, Appeals Court Slows Down on Trump Immunity Decision - The New York Times - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Donald Trump and UAW President Shawn Fain exchange barbs: 'Get rid of this dope' - USA TODAY - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Donald Trump dispels rumors that he reached out to RFK Jr for VP: Never happened - Fox News - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- How Donald Trump Got Disqualified From The Ballot And His Entire Candidacy Wound Up Before The Supreme Court - HuffPost - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Trump Says Nikki Haley Is Unlikely to Be His Running Mate - The New York Times - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Donald Trump Goes From Calm To Indignant In Newly Released Deposition Video Of Civil Fraud Lawsuit - HuffPost - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Trump: Haley 'probably ... is not going to be chosen as the vice president' - POLITICO - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Trump returns to New Hampshire as primary nears - The Washington Post - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Boris Johnson: Trump's return could be 'big win for the world' - POLITICO Europe - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Zelenskyy invites Trump to Kyiv POLITICO - POLITICO Europe - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- 'New Hampshire Is Close to a Make-or-Break for Keeping the Nomination Out of Donald Trump's Hands.' - POLITICO - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Trump's pitch in New Hampshire is more about Nikki Haley as he hopes for big win - NPR - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Donald Trump's tax cuts would add to American growthand debt - The Economist - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Donald Trump's populism is turning off corporate donors - The Economist - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Why DeSantis Says Trump's Romp in Iowa Is Actually a Sign of His Weakness - The New York Times - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- The GOP Is Already Clashing Over Trump's VP Pick - POLITICO - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- There is still a way to stop Donald Trump but time is running out - The Guardian - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- The Davos Consensus: Donald Trump Will Win Re-Election - The New York Times - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Maine Secretary of State to Appeal Ruling on Her Decision to Exclude Trump From Ballot - The New York Times - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Vice President Harris says she's 'scared as heck' that Donald Trump could win - The Associated Press - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- What is the point of coming second to Donald Trump? - The Economist - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Thousands Sign Christian Petition Urging Bishops Not to Back Donald Trump - Newsweek - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Why Donald Trump Is Facing E. Jean Carroll in Court a Second Time - The New York Times - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Donald Trump Claims He Will Never Allow Creation of CBDC in the US if Reelected - Yahoo Finance - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Keller @ Large: What Donald Trump's win in Iowa means for the presidential race - CBS Boston - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Donald Trump tries to twist felony charges, lawsuits after Iowa win - USA TODAY - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Donald Trump Just Incriminated Himself on Truth Social: Legal Analyst - Newsweek - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Putin 'Actively Hoping' to Get Donald Trump Back as President: Ret. General - Newsweek - December 31st, 2023 [December 31st, 2023]
- Trump Loses Bid to Put E. Jean Carroll Defamation Trial on Hold - The Daily Beast - December 31st, 2023 [December 31st, 2023]
- Donald Trump denies he 'bullied' his way into 'Home Alone 2' movie - USA TODAY - December 31st, 2023 [December 31st, 2023]
- Donald Trump: Producers Were 'Begging Me' to Be in Home Alone 2 - Yahoo Entertainment - December 31st, 2023 [December 31st, 2023]
- Election: How Donald Trump ends 2023 with polling lead on DeSantis - Palm Beach Post - December 31st, 2023 [December 31st, 2023]
- Trump Ballot Challenges: What to Know - The New York Times - December 31st, 2023 [December 31st, 2023]
- Donald Trump criticizes Gov. Mike DeWine over House Bill 68 veto - The Columbus Dispatch - December 31st, 2023 [December 31st, 2023]
- Would Keeping Trump Off the Ballot Hurt or Help Democracy? - The New York Times - December 31st, 2023 [December 31st, 2023]
- Opinion | Debbie Dingell: Why Standing Up to Trump Is Worth the Pain - The New York Times - December 31st, 2023 [December 31st, 2023]
- Donald Trump's Amazing Year - 2024 Election - Newsweek - December 31st, 2023 [December 31st, 2023]
- Petition calls for Hollywood to remove Donald Trump's star on the Walk of Fame - CBS News - December 31st, 2023 [December 31st, 2023]
- Opinion | The Supreme Court and Donald Trump - The New York Times - December 31st, 2023 [December 31st, 2023]
- Colorado, Maine, other states trying to block Donald Trump from the ballot. Here's what happens next - USA TODAY - December 31st, 2023 [December 31st, 2023]
- Lawyers' Amicus Brief Adds New Wrinkle to Donald Trump's Immunity Appeal - Newsweek - December 31st, 2023 [December 31st, 2023]
- Will Donald Trump go to trial in 2024? Will his support hold? Questions the former president faces next year - USA TODAY - December 31st, 2023 [December 31st, 2023]
- Donald Trump currently slated to appear on Colorado ballots - FOX 31 Denver - December 31st, 2023 [December 31st, 2023]
- Election law expert on legal and political questions as states block Trump from ballot - PBS NewsHour - December 31st, 2023 [December 31st, 2023]
- What Donald Trump's Presidency Meant for Your Wallet And How It Could Change If He Wins Again - Yahoo Finance - December 31st, 2023 [December 31st, 2023]
- Vivek Ramaswamay Hits Maine After Secretary of State Shenna Bellows Boots Donald Trump From Its Ballot - The Daily Beast - December 31st, 2023 [December 31st, 2023]
- Donald Trump falls off Forbes 400 richest Americans list amid fraud trial over inflated net worth - New York Daily News - October 3rd, 2023 [October 3rd, 2023]
- Donald Trump wants future Republican debates to be canceled after refusing to participate in them - Yahoo News - October 3rd, 2023 [October 3rd, 2023]
- The Trump Boys Can't Recall a Thing - Vanity Fair - October 3rd, 2023 [October 3rd, 2023]
- Donald Trump business fraud trial began Monday in New York - NPR - October 3rd, 2023 [October 3rd, 2023]
- Sam Bankman-Fried Wanted to Pay Donald Trump Not to Run for ... - Vanity Fair - October 3rd, 2023 [October 3rd, 2023]
- Donald Trump Says Shoplifters Should be Shot, but Does He Know Who Most Shoplifters Are? - Yahoo News - October 3rd, 2023 [October 3rd, 2023]
- Opinion | Donald Trumps Campaign of Violence and Lawlessness - The New York Times - October 3rd, 2023 [October 3rd, 2023]
- Donald Trump is a coward for not debating tonight - The Hill - October 3rd, 2023 [October 3rd, 2023]
- N.H. attorney general 'carefully reviewing' arguments that could keep Trump off state's ballot - POLITICO - August 30th, 2023 [August 30th, 2023]
- Mark Meadows news: The defense of Trump's perfect phone call is really something. - Slate - August 30th, 2023 [August 30th, 2023]
- Opinion | The Thing Is, Most Republicans Really Like Trump - The New York Times - August 30th, 2023 [August 30th, 2023]