The GOP Is Already Clashing Over Trump’s VP Pick – POLITICO

Nikki Haley as VP would be an establishment neocon fantasy and a MAGA nightmare, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) told me. On Day One she would convert the Naval Observatory into an anti-Trump, resistance headquarters, undermining him at every step.

The Stop Nikki effort is so forceful because Trumps decision will go to the heart of the partys debate over its identity.

Theres the obvious the term-limited Trump selecting an Oval Office heir but its not only succession issues thats sparking the Haley pushback.

Her selection as vice presidential nominee also amounts to a proxy war in the equally ferocious intra-party clash over foreign policy. Republican hawks see Haley as one of their own while GOP non-interventionists such as Gaetz are appalled that Trump would consummate his nomination by picking a Republican whose national security views are anathema to America First devotees.

Look no further than the presidents eldest son, perhaps the loudest opponent of Haleys selection, who immediately followed her on stage Monday at a Des Moines caucus site and blistered her foreign policy worldview.

Nikki Haley wants to be in every war the world has to offer, said Donald Trump Jr., vowing that with his father as president again America will not send the next generation to die in yet another never-ending war.

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump walks on stage at his caucus night victory event in Des Moines, Iowa on Jan. 15, 2024. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO

The preemptive war against Haley, as it were, is not lost on the former presidents closest hawkish ally.

The same people who dont like her dont like me, said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), calling the Haley opponents isolationists in MAGAworld.

Which gets at why her selection has already set off such an internal uproar its about power. And namely whether Trump should cede any by offering concessions to the GOP traditionalists hes poised to vanquish yet again.

After a term in which he was constrained by so many of the old establishment Republicans in the White House and Congress and, in the eyes of his loyalists, betrayed in his hour of need by his previous vice president, it would be borderline masochistic to set himself up again.

To the old hands in Trumps orbit, elevating Haley would be an even more significant blow than the Mike Pence pick in 2016.

It recalls the last movement leader of the right who thwarted the old guard only to invite them into his inner circle. Ronald Reagan, aiming to unify the GOP, not only selected the moderate George H.W. Bush as his running mate but also made Bushs close friend, James A. Baker III, White House chief of staff.

Which is not to say that Trump would similarly bring on Haleys closest adviser, Jon Lerner. However, Trumps inner circle knows Lerner, a political consultant who moonlighted as a U.N. official when Haley was there, is among the most committed hawks in her aviary. And Im told that the GOPs tilt away from supporting Ukraine and broader drift toward isolationism has horrified Lerner, who rarely speaks in public.

Some Republicans close to Trump find it highly unlikely he would choose Haley. Yet Graham believes the former president is open to joining forces with his most formidable rival.

How open Trump is to such an alliance, however, may be shaped by the next weeks of the race. Its one thing for Haley to intensify her criticism of Trump between now and next Tuesdays New Hampshire primary. More difficult for the relationship to survive would be an ugly, month-long battle for South Carolina.

I think he would pick her if he thought it would help him win, Graham told me. But the longer it goes and the more scar tissue accumulates the less likely it is.

Which is why, in one respect, having Ron DeSantis remaining in the race may not be all bad for Haley, at least if she aspires to be on the ticket with Trump. Were the Florida governor to siphon votes from her in New Hampshire and ensure her defeat in even a demographically promising state it would give her the cover to drop out of the race and avoid Armageddon in South Carolina.

Trump has been told, by his son Don and others, that picking Haley would ensure a significant backlash from his populist base. Yet that hasnt stopped the former president, as he is wont to do, from quizzing people about her to test their reactions.

And some in Trumps organization believe, like Graham, that if Trump was convinced Haley could ensure victory hed put aside his reservations and ignore the pleas against her.

Emphasizing this point, one of Trumps loyalists pointed out to me that the former president has mostly attacked her on policy issues and hasnt called Haley bird brain for some time. (This was before Trump tried out a new, ethnic slur for her Tuesday on his Truth Social platform: Nimrada.)

Trumps eventual selection represents a test of how much he believes his own bravado about defeating President Biden. How much help does the former president believe he needs to win?

One consideration Trump will make, Im told, is a vice-presidential pick in the mold of Dick Cheney, somebody who has no ambition to run in their own right (and, unlike Cheney, may not come from the political arena at all).

That, of course, would take Haley out of the running. But it would also sideline a host of other contenders, both traditional Republicans and MAGA-aligned.

Despite Trumps provocative claim at last weeks Fox News town hall that he already has someone in mind, few in his orbit have a feel for whos truly in contention.

What is certain are the Trumpian attributes hell be looking for, namely loyalty, having what he calls the look and that sweet spot between having just enough talent to impress him but not so much to overshadow him.

The loyalty part will hurt the chances of some of those who opposed Trump in the primary Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds would have been a short-lister had she not backed DeSantis, Im told by people with knowledge.

For all his own rhetorical eruptions and sordid (and allegedly illegal) doings, Trump is also harshly judgmental about the appearance and conduct of others.

He wants fealty but not crazy. And its easier to detect the downside, why somebody wont be picked, than to find the perfect candidate.

There are, though, some play-it-safe prospects. North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, who endorsed Trump before Iowa, would be on that list, and hes helped because he also has another trait the former president admires: wealth. Sens. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) and Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), and former HUD Secretary Ben Carson, would be in the same category. Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders and Sen. Katie Britt (R-Ala.) may also be in that same bloc, but its not clear how much either wants the job and both held out from endorsing Trump for long enough to be noticed, particularly in the case of Sanders.

He also may not do it, but theres Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, whom Graham brought up to me as that prototype of good enough but vanilla enough.

Also: the Trump critics-turned-enthusiasts, namely Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) and Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio). Few in the party have been less subtle about their interest in the post than Stefanik. Her viral interrogation of college presidents and decision to leave the safe space of Fox News to appear on NBCs Meet the Press were aimed in part at proving to Trump that she can perform on a stage bigger than her North Country district.

Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) is seen at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 17, 2024. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

Although, to be fair to Stefanik, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, who traveled to Iowa to campaign, may have been even more unsubtle.

Noem may be considered. Yet few in Trumps inner circle are enthusiastic about the burst of stories that would accompany her selection, namely her support for a strict state abortion ban that complicates the former presidents desire to downplay the issue and allegations that she had a romantic relationship with her principal adviser, and 2016 Trump campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski.

Some high-level Republicans, though, have a way out for Trump and Noem, who has cycled through chiefs of staff and spent much of her second term as governor out of state for political events: Make her the next (well-paid) head of the NRA.

For now, though, Noem is making her case. And shes making one against the most polarizing figure in the still-developing vice-presidential field.

When the South Dakotan dipped into Western Iowa earlier this month, she attacked Haley by name.

Whichever way the political winds blow is where she goes, and we cannot trust our country to somebody like that either, Noem said of Haley at a rally in Sioux City.

Ben Johansen contributed to this report.

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The GOP Is Already Clashing Over Trump's VP Pick - POLITICO