Lets analyze Donald Trumps reelection chances – The Boston Globe

Trump attracts plenty of ridicule for his promise-mongering about the wall with Mexico, but the unbuilt wall can do the same job in 2020 as the hypothetical wall did in 2016 e.g., Reelect me, I have to finish what Nancy Pelosi prevented me from doing, blah blah blah.

Trumps, harsh, cruelty-first immigration policies havent won him many friends in the commentariat, or in states where immigration and asylum issues arent integrally connected to the local economy, i.e., Massachusetts. But he will run on his record.

A Trump ad aired last fall claims he has cut illegal immigration in half an exaggeration, to put it mildly. Yet The Washington Post recently reported that the number of migrants taken into custody along the US-Mexico border has started to plateau after several straight months of decline.

He grasped the nettle, as he promised to do.

Nobel Prize winners are never going to praise Trumponomics (Paul Krugman on Election Day, 2016: Markets are plunging), but in a presidential campaign, three pocketbook issues matter: (1) Is inflation under control? (2) Is gasoline more expensive? and (3) Do I have a job?

The election is several months away, but for now the answers for most Americans are Yes, No, and Yes. Advantage Trump.

Concerning foreign entanglements, Trumps foreign policy can be politely described as incoherent. American troop deployments overseas have either declined or remained steady, depending on whom you choose to believe. When Trump was elected, my greatest fear was that he would provoke a war on the Korean peninsula. That hasnt happened, which either exposes my poor judgment or means that Trump has acted with more restraint than I thought he would.

Trumpism spawned a spate of wheezy Death of Democracy articles in thought leader publications, e.g., The Atlantics How America Ends or The New York Timess How Democracy Dies. What a charade. Trump loves democracy! American democracy has provided him with a tricked-out Boeing 747 that he can fly down to Florida to play golf, any day he wants. Not just on weekends.

Democracy is grand!

Further proof that Trump loves democracy: He has injected himself into several closely contested state elections since he became president. (Louisiana, Kentucky, and Alabama come to mind.) With mixed results, to be sure. But there is no reason to think he wont contest this next election, and vigorously. Itll be worth it just to keep flying his Golf Shuttle, formerly known as Air Force One.

Ah, I hear you say, but people despise Donald Trump. That is true. In one poll, 69 percent of the respondents said they dislike Trumps admittedly loathsome personality. But the Trump campaign has that angle covered: Hes no Mr. Nice Guy, an ad that ran during the 2019 World Series declared, but sometimes it takes a Donald Trump to change Washington.

Its easy to write off Trump as a psychiatric basket case, or an Adolf Hitler wannabe. The truth is much starker: He is a formidable candidate for reelection to the presidency of the United States.

Alex Beams column appears regularly in the Globe. Follow him on Twitter @imalexbeamyrnot.

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Lets analyze Donald Trumps reelection chances - The Boston Globe