Is Trumpism finally cracking? | The Hill

Beltway pundits have been predicting former President Trumps political downfall almost from the moment Trump announced his candidacy in 2015. There may be a worse bet in Washington, but youd be hard-pressed to find it.

Trump seems to defy the laws of political gravity. Not only has he survived multiple accusations of sexual misconduct, countless administration scandals and a historic two impeachments, hes done so with his popularity largely intact among Republicans. And while a 44 percent national favorability rating isnt anything to celebrate, Trump has proven it is enough to win the presidency in a country deeply divided by political polarization.

But recent GOP primary polling and public comments by prominent Republicans indicate that the ground may be shifting under Trumps feet. Whats worse for The Donald, much of the harshest criticism comes from former MAGA faithful who are increasingly questioning Trumps fitness to lead the insurgent movement he founded.

Trump drew rare criticism from fellow Republicans for his endorsement of Dr. Mehmet Oz, a snake-oil selling daytime television star and Republican candidate for Senate in Pennsylvania. Former candidate Sean Parnell described himself as disappointed by Trumps decision, calling Oz the antithesis of everything that made Trump the best president of my lifetime.

Breitbarts Joel Pollak went further, warning that Trumps endorsement of Oz could divide MAGA in the only way that matters: He could lose the America First conservatives over it. For a party that loyally stomached Trumps full endorsement of Roy Moores doomed Alabama Senate bid, Dr. Oz is simply a bridge too far.

Trumps base of strength within the GOP has always been his ability to command loyalty from Republican lawmakers, even at the expense of their own political prospects. But pollster Frank Luntz suggests Trumps awe-inspiring effect on his partys players may be fading. In an interview with CNNs Dana Bash, Luntz described a former president widely mocked albeit privately and quietly within his partys elite circles. That might seem minor for Democrats used to mocking their partys agitators, but it represents a huge breach of loyalty in a Trumpified GOP.

The former presidents control over his party is slipping in large part because of a self-inflicted wound. During a radio interview on Feb. 22, Trump praised Russian President Vladimir Putin as a genius and applauded Putins savvy invasion of Ukraine. The issue became an immediate Republican loyalty test, dividing the party based on Republican lawmakers willingness to cheer authoritarianism if that pleases Trump.

Praising Putin earned Trump unexpectedly strong (if sometimes indirect) criticism from prominent Republican lawmakers such as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who urged President Biden to take immediate action against Putins aggression. In a rare show of independence, Senate Republicans lined up to distance themselves from Trumps remarks by issuing their own condemnations of Putins lawlessness.

Republicans fleeting moment of Trump criticism on Ukraine has emboldened many within the party to voice their own concerns about the partys increasingly erratic direction. Trumps strident endorsement of Oz in Pennsylvania and the MAGA worlds confident rebuke of Trumps vaunted three-dimensional chess political strategy is the most public test yet of the former presidents ability to shape the GOP in his own image.

All that strife within the MAGA movement is hitting Trump where it hurts: rally attendance. With Trumps messengers internally conflicted, audiences are beginning to zone out. A recent North Carolina Trump rally drew a paltry 1,000 to 2,000 attendees, down almost 90 percent over a rally at the same venue during his 2016 presidential campaign. The MAGA movement drew Republicans with its ceaseless stream of attacks against Hillary Clinton and now Joe Biden. Voters seem less interested when MAGA leaders are unloading their ammunition on each other.

Trumps excesses havent doomed him yet, but his movement now faces its most sustained Republican criticism since Jan. 6, when Trump remained silent while his supporters ransacked the Capitol complex. With Trumps endorsed candidates inspiring as much derision as praise and a growing number of GOP hopefuls looking ahead to 2024, the question Republicans must now answer is whether Trump is still an essential part of the MAGA movement.

Unless Trump and his lieutenants can reinforce the former presidents grip on loose-lipped GOP critics, the MAGA movement could fracture just as Republicans head into a critical midterm election cycle. That would be disastrous for the GOP, but it would be politically fatal for an increasingly vulnerable Trump.

MaxBurnsis a Democratic strategist and founder of Third Degree Strategies, a progressive communications firm. Follow him on Twitter @themaxburns.

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Is Trumpism finally cracking? | The Hill