Whether a new coronavirus variant takes hold in the coming weeks could determine if Michigan will undergo another seasonal COVID surge or enjoy its first quiet winter in three years.
Modeling from The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub offer projections for the next six months, with a handful of different scenarios based on vaccine uptake and the emergence of hypothetical new variants. Health officials have looked to these models throughout the pandemic to help estimate upcoming trends.
The latest models suggest Michigan could see COVID cases and hospitalizations continue to plateau or even decline this fall if there are no new immune-escaping variants of coronavirus that gain traction through the end of the year.
On the other hand, a new variant with the ability to evade existing immunity could open the door to another rise in infections, hospitalizations and deaths this winter, much like omicron caused in 2021.
Its the kind of situation where I would love it if we got a pleasant surprise and we ended up not having a winter spike, but I think we probably should prepare for one, said Marisa Eisenberg, an associate professor of epidemiology at the University of Michigan who assists the state with infectious disease modeling. History has shown that usually we do get one.
The difference between Scenario Hubs most pessimistic scenario (new variant, low booster uptake), and its most optimistic scenario (no new variant, high booster uptake early on), is about 600,000 hospitalizations and 70,000 deaths nationwide.
The group estimates early booster availability and uptake would avert 6-12% of cases, 10-16% of hospitalizations, and 12-15% of deaths.
Related: COVID questions: Are the new vaccine boosters still free? Whos eligible?
Omicron subvariants BA.4 and BA.5 continue to make up more than 95% of sequenced samples in the U.S. Another omicron subvariant known as BA.2.75, originally identified in India, made up 1.3% of sequenced U.S. cases last week and is being monitored by the World Health Organization.
Predicting what the actual new variant is going to be and when it might emerge is a really tough problem, Eisenberg said. It depends so much on transmission happening not just in Michigan but all around the world, and other variables.
There are a lot of different variants that (the World Health Organization) and others are keeping track of. Whether any one of those is likely to kind of emerge and become the next dominant variant is tough to say.
Michigans COVID-19 trends have been consistent from week to week throughout the summer, with steady increases over the last three months. During the last week, the state reported an average of 1,849 cases and 17 deaths per day -- up from 1,588 cases and eight deaths per day three months ago.
Similarly, hospitals were treating 1,174 COVID patients as of Tuesday, Sept. 20, compared to 777 such patients on June 21.
The latest numbers arent far off from mid-September 2021, when the state was reporting about 2,772 cases and 21 deaths per day. Case counts were likely more accurate then, due to less availability of at-home testing.
In the months that followed, a more infectious variant known as omicron took over delta as the dominant strain in the U.S., resulting in spikes in case, death and hospitalization rates. By mid-January, there were more than 17,500 cases being reported per day in Michigan, and hospitalizations neared 5,000 COVID patients as health systems begged for residents to exercise caution.
The models from Scenario Hub show potential for another spike near the end of the year. They also leave the door open for rates to continue plateauing even despite a hypothetical new variant, as its difficult to predict the infectiousness of a hypothetical new variant.
Another big factor at play will be how much of the population will get the new bivalent vaccines. The updated booster shots, which became available to Michiganders earlier this month, were made to offer protection against the original coronavirus strain from the start of the pandemic, as well as omicron BA.4 and BA.5.
Absent of a new variant, the models project early boosters could prevent 2.4 million cases, 137,000 hospitalizations, and 9,700 deaths from COVID.
The bivalent booster will help fight the omicron subvariants, including BA.4 and 5, said Dr. Natasha Bagdasarian, Michigans chief medical executive, in a prepared statement. COVID-19 vaccines remain our best defense against the virus, and we recommend all Michiganders stay up to date.
About 63% of Michiganders got an initial dose of the original vaccines. Of them, about 59% got an initial booster dose. The state hadnt published any data on bivalent booster uptake as of Wednesday, Sept. 21.
Scenario Hub notes that even the best models of emerging infections struggle to give accurate forecasts greater than a few weeks out due to unpredictable variables like changing policy environment, behavior change, development of new control measures, and random events.
Eisenberg said its getting harder to make these models, because the picture of existing immunity and re-infection is getting increasingly complicated with the evolving coronavirus variants. Still, they remain useful.
Theyre not trying to project whats going to happen, she said. Theyre saying if we get a new variant, heres what it might look like. If we dont, heres what it might look like.
To find a vaccine near you, visit the online vaccine finder tool and enter your ZIP code. If youre looking for a bivalent booster, select one or both of the bivalent shots from Pfizer and Moderna.
Read more on MLive:
Michigan reports 16,901 COVID cases, 147 new deaths as plateau continues
Michigan doctors may empower pharmacists to prescribe birth control pills, licensing agency says
Michigan could be in for a worse flu season than recent years
Mail ballot preprocessing possible before election as negotiations continue
Wheres the center of Michigans population? See how its changed since 1880
Originally posted here:
Will Michigan see a quiet winter or another COVID-19 surge? - MLive.com
- 2024 CDC COVID-19 guidelines: Isolation, masks, what you should know - The Arizona Republic - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- Long Covid and Impaired Cognition More Evidence and More Work to Do | NEJM - nejm.org - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- Prospective Memory Assessment before and after Covid-19 | NEJM - nejm.org - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- A pandemic that won't go away as COVID enters its 5th year, NZ needs a realistic strategy - The Conversation - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- Older US adults should get another COVID-19 shot, advisers say - Detroit News - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- Vaping increases susceptibility to COVID-19 infection, study finds - News-Medical.Net - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- Older U.S. adults should get another covid-19 shot, advisers say - TribLIVE - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- Vapers More Susceptible to COVID-19 Infection Than Tobacco Smokers, Reveals Study | Weather.com - The Weather Channel - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- How we met: She was in the next hospital bed and I loved her accent - The Guardian - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- Fleet To Hit Record Size In 2024 But Still Suffering Covid Hangover - Forbes - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- How vaccine hesitancy is contributing to rising rates of measles and COVID - PBS NewsHour - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- How did COVID-19 impact cancer incidence trends in the US? - News-Medical.Net - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- CT-based Assessment at 6-Month Follow-up of COVID-19 Pneumonia patients in China | Scientific Reports - Nature.com - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- Covid in 2024: What to Know About Guidelines, Symptoms and Vaccines - WSJ - The Wall Street Journal - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- Unlocking coronavirus structure through M protein research - News-Medical.Net - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- SARS-CoV-2 fragments may cause problems after infection - National Institutes of Health (NIH) (.gov) - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- People 65 and up should now get another COVID-19 vaccine, CDC recommends - cleveland.com - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- Welcome to the 2024 CFA Annual Report | Covid-19 | news-journal.com - Longview News-Journal - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- Exploring the reported adverse effects of COVID-19 vaccines among vaccinated Arab populations: a multi-national ... - Nature.com - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- R.I. COVID-19 cases increased by 337 last week, with 2 deaths - Providence Business News - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- Older US adults should get another COVID-19 shot, advisers say - NBC Bay Area - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- Cognitive Deficits Seen in COVID-19 Patients Regardless of Symptom Duration - HealthDay - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- CDC recommends seniors get another Covid-19 shot - Baltimore Sun - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- Odds of Severe COVID-19 High for Hematologic Cancer Patients During Pandemic - HealthDay - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- COVID-19 may have small but lasting effects on cognition and memory | Imperial News - Imperial College London - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- More free home COVID-19 tests available from US government - WCVB Boston - November 20th, 2023 [November 20th, 2023]
- Seniors made up 63 percent of covid hospitalizations earlier this year - The Washington Post - November 20th, 2023 [November 20th, 2023]
- Fifth Covid-19 wave sees biggest bump in virus detection since ... - New Zealand Herald - November 20th, 2023 [November 20th, 2023]
- KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor November 2023: With COVID ... - KFF - November 20th, 2023 [November 20th, 2023]
- What to Know About the New Dominant Covid Variant - The New York Times - August 12th, 2023 [August 12th, 2023]
- Should You Get Another Covid Booster Now, or Wait Until the Fall? - The New York Times - August 12th, 2023 [August 12th, 2023]
- A 'mini cyclone' helps detect coronavirus in the air - Science News Explores - August 12th, 2023 [August 12th, 2023]
- Infection prevention and control in the context of coronavirus ... - World Health Organization - August 12th, 2023 [August 12th, 2023]
- Serum ferritin level during hospitalization is associated with Brain ... - Nature.com - August 12th, 2023 [August 12th, 2023]
- Rhode Island Man Sentenced to Three Years in Prison for Theft and ... - Department of Justice - August 12th, 2023 [August 12th, 2023]
- Posts Exaggerate Significance of Swiss Study on Heart Risk and ... - FactCheck.org - August 12th, 2023 [August 12th, 2023]
- Wenstrup Presses Department of Education for Answers on Misuse ... - House Committee on Oversight and Reform | - August 12th, 2023 [August 12th, 2023]
- Biden Administration Fails to Share Intel on COVID-19 Origins, but Independent Evidence Is Piling Up - Heritage.org - June 24th, 2023 [June 24th, 2023]
- Do I need a booster vaccine if I recently had COVID? What if I'm not sure what I had? - The Conversation - June 24th, 2023 [June 24th, 2023]
- Psychics, wrestlers and churches: How online shopping and Covid changed mall tenants - Buffalo News - June 24th, 2023 [June 24th, 2023]
- Report: Incarcerated populations up 4% post-COVID - CorrectionsOne - June 24th, 2023 [June 24th, 2023]
- The National Average for Gross Revenue at ECP Locations Decreased for the Week of June 12 18, Jobson's Latest ... - Vision Monday - June 24th, 2023 [June 24th, 2023]
- ODNI Releases Report on the Potential Links Between the Wuhan ... - Office of the Director of National Intelligence - June 24th, 2023 [June 24th, 2023]
- U.S. Intelligence Agencies May Never Find Covid's Origins, Officials ... - The New York Times - June 24th, 2023 [June 24th, 2023]
- Covid-19 likely came from lab leak, says news report citing US energy ... - March 4th, 2023 [March 4th, 2023]
- Classified Energy Department report finds lab leak likely cause of ... - March 4th, 2023 [March 4th, 2023]
- Mayor Kirk Watson tests positive for COVID-19 - KEYE TV CBS Austin - February 5th, 2023 [February 5th, 2023]
- Biden's plan for ending the emergency declaration for COVID-19 signals a pivotal point in the pandemic 4 questions answered - The Conversation... - February 5th, 2023 [February 5th, 2023]
- Study finds one habit can significantly lower your odds of getting sick from COVID-19 - KATU - February 5th, 2023 [February 5th, 2023]
- How will life change once the COVID-19 emergency ends? - KFOX El Paso - February 5th, 2023 [February 5th, 2023]
- Shipping Corporation of India and Seven Islands Shipping re-join membership of INSA - ETInfra.com - January 30th, 2023 [January 30th, 2023]
- COVID-19 Response | United Nations - December 28th, 2022 [December 28th, 2022]
- Top German virologist says COVID-19 pandemic is over - Hindustan Times - December 28th, 2022 [December 28th, 2022]
- China says impossible to track COVID spread as virus surges - Al Jazeera English - December 14th, 2022 [December 14th, 2022]
- What are the most common COVID symptoms now? Its no longer fever, loss of taste - AL.com - December 14th, 2022 [December 14th, 2022]
- Entropy and life - Wikipedia - November 27th, 2022 [November 27th, 2022]
- Negentropy - Wikipedia - November 27th, 2022 [November 27th, 2022]
- Coronavirus: OC reported 1,602 new cases and six more deaths over the past week, as of Nov. 17 - OCRegister - November 19th, 2022 [November 19th, 2022]
- How COVID-19 damages lungs: The virus attacks mitochondria, continuing an ancient battle that began in the primordial soup - The Conversation - October 30th, 2022 [October 30th, 2022]
- How to save this winter on heating costs - WKYC.com - October 23rd, 2022 [October 23rd, 2022]
- 'Fonseca' book review: The Goan artist's biography misses the art of the matter - The New Indian Express - October 23rd, 2022 [October 23rd, 2022]
- Researchers' tests of lab-made version of Covid virus draw scrutiny - STAT - October 21st, 2022 [October 21st, 2022]
- Coronavirus: Orange County reported 1,427 more cases and seven more deaths in the past week as of Oct. 20 - OCRegister - October 21st, 2022 [October 21st, 2022]
- 3 Illinois Counties at High Community Level for COVID-19 as 1 Million Bivalent Booster Shots Have Been Administered - NBC Chicago - October 21st, 2022 [October 21st, 2022]
- What Is Coronavirus? | Johns Hopkins Medicine - October 17th, 2022 [October 17th, 2022]
- Gaston County reported 177 additional COVID-19 cases this week - Gaston Gazette - October 17th, 2022 [October 17th, 2022]
- Coronavirus Roundup: The Biden Administration Renews the Public Health Emergency for COVID-19 - GovExec.com - October 17th, 2022 [October 17th, 2022]
- Circulation of Public Warning Alert on COVID-19 vaccines fraudulently using PAHO's name and logo - World - ReliefWeb - October 17th, 2022 [October 17th, 2022]
- Time to Get Your Flu Shot and Your COVID-19 Booster Too - Health.mil - October 17th, 2022 [October 17th, 2022]
- Evasive COVID-19 subvariants that you dont know about are spreading fast - Poynter - October 17th, 2022 [October 17th, 2022]
- Deer and mink can harbor Covid-19: Why animal virologists say we need to worry - Inverse - October 17th, 2022 [October 17th, 2022]
- Europe likely entering another COVID wave, says WHO and ECDC - Reuters - October 17th, 2022 [October 17th, 2022]
- Without a nasal vaccine, the U.S. edge in fighting Covid is on the line - POLITICO - October 17th, 2022 [October 17th, 2022]
- COVID-19 Daily Update 10-17-2022 - West Virginia Department of Health and Human Resources - October 17th, 2022 [October 17th, 2022]
- Coronavirus: Government seeking to extend powers behind COVID restrictions until 2025 - Newshub - October 17th, 2022 [October 17th, 2022]
- Shocking: EcoHealth Alliance receives another round of funding for coronavirus bat research in Asia - The Center Square - October 17th, 2022 [October 17th, 2022]
- Opportunities in Health Education in the Post-COVID-19 Era: Transforming Viral to Vital - Cureus - October 17th, 2022 [October 17th, 2022]
- Fauci says COVID-19 was politicized by triple whammy of outbreak, division and 2020 election - WJTV - October 17th, 2022 [October 17th, 2022]
- How long does immunity from the new COVID bivalent boosters last 'in the real world'? - San Francisco Chronicle - October 17th, 2022 [October 17th, 2022]
- Respiratory illnesses have spiked among children. Here's what parents need to know. - Yahoo News - October 17th, 2022 [October 17th, 2022]