This image made by a scanning electron micrograph shows SARS-COV-2 virus particles (colorized pink) from a patient sample. There are various studies looking at changes to the virus genome and the possible impact on how the virus affects humans. NIAID/NIH hide caption
This image made by a scanning electron micrograph shows SARS-COV-2 virus particles (colorized pink) from a patient sample. There are various studies looking at changes to the virus genome and the possible impact on how the virus affects humans.
This week, the question of mutation has been front and center in coverage of the coronavirus from controversial claims about changes that make the virus more contagious to reassurances that any mutations are not yet consequential.
Here are some of the questions being raised and what the specialists can (and can't yet) say to answer them.
Is the coronavirus mutating?
Researchers say the coronavirus is making small changes to itself as they would expect it to at a relatively predictable and steady rate of around one to two changes per month.
"Viruses mutate naturally as part of their life cycle," says Ewan Harrison, scientific project manager for the COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium. The coronavirus is no different.
When a virus infects a person, it enters their cells and makes copies of itself, which then circulate through the body or are transmitted respiratory droplets is one method to other humans.
Inevitably, viruses "make mistakes in their genomes" as they copy themselves, Harrison says. Those changes can accumulate and carry over to future copies of the virus. Mutations are akin to typos in text most typos are nonevents, but some can change the meaning of a word or sentence. Likewise, many mutations will be dead ends with no effect on people who are infected. But some of these mutations in a virus may change how quickly it infects people and replicates, or what kind of damage it does to cells.
These small, cumulative changes are useful to researchers, because they act as identification cards that help trace the pathway of the virus through groups of people over time. For instance, in a surveillance study on the Arizona State University campus, researchers found that the people who were showing up sick in mid-March with the coronavirus had different versions of the virus from each other. Comparing the virus genomes helped them figure out that the spike in mid-March cases probably didn't signify an outbreak on campus; the cases had had likely caught this version of the virus elsewhere, perhaps when they traveled for spring break, and brought it back. So tracking virus genomes is valuable in tracing how and where the virus is spreading.
Is the coronavirus becoming more transmissible?
Twitter lit up this week when a draft research paper posted to the preprint server bioRxiv got picked up by the media. The paper suggests in the title that their analysis of coronavirus mutations "reveals the emergence of a more transmissible form of SARS-CoV-2."
The study was conducted by researchers at Los Alamos National Laboratory, The University of Sheffield and Duke. They analyzed publicly available genome sequences from around the world posted on GISAID, a global research platform that has amassed over 16,000 coronavirus sequences to date.
The researchers found that a version of the virus, which was first detected in Europe in early February, appears to have become the most common strain in the U.S., Australia, parts of Africa basically, anywhere it spread. The study authors hypothesize that a mutation in this virus strain, which changes one amino acid in the part of the coronavirus that finds and binds to cells, could cause the virus to spread more easily.
"I think that it is an important observation," says Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at Columbia Mailman School of Public Health, "We have seen in other virus epidemics, such as the Ebola epidemic, that there are these mutations that seem to persist and become the dominant form of the virus."
However, Rasmussen says, there's no clear evidence that the mutation referenced in the paper does anything to change how the virus spreads.
Other factors could also account for why the virus from Europe is dominant, says Justin Bahl, a computational biologist at University of Georgia. It could possibly be explained by the so-called "founder effect," where the European version spread rapidly across international borders and established itself as the dominant strain because countries were slow to lock down.
To prove whether the mutation identified in the paper causes the virus to spread more easily, researchers want to see experimental evidence: for instance, a study where both strains are tested in live cells, to see if the mutated virus replicates faster. If those results show such signs, they'll want to see if one virus spreads more readily in lab animals.
Is the coronavirus mutating to become less harmful?
Another study, published in Journal of Virology, identified one patient in Arizona who was carrying a version of the virus with a chunk of it missing. The deletion was sizable 81 nucleotides long, out of the 30,000 or so that make up the coronavirus' genome sequence (in case you're wondering, a nucleotide is a molecule that forms the building block of a DNA or RNA strand and is too tiny to be seen under most microscopes). It was also found in a location on the genome which, on the classic SARS virus, helped the virus fight the immune system, according to study co-author Efrem Lim, a virologist at Arizona State University.
The researchers hypothesize that the deletion "may potentially reduce virus fitness" a claim Lim says they're now testing in labs.
The paper is based on just one virus genome, out of the 16,000 that have been sequenced and shared, which makes it difficult to generalize to the larger group of circulating versions of the novel coronavirus. "We actually have no idea whether [a virus with this deletion] is transmissible or not," Bahl says. "We don't know whether it was just a one-off event or whether these variants are transmitting and becoming more frequent in the population [of people getting coronavirus]."
More evidence is needed to see if Lim's hypothesis holds and it will emerge as research continues.
Do the mutations we're seeing affect the development of treatments and vaccines?
Not yet. "We're getting the mutations that we're kind of expecting here," says Vineet Menachery, a virologist at the University of Texas Medical Branch, so the research process already accounts for these changes.
Menachery says the European mutation tracked in the Los Alamos paper is adjacent to, but not directly on, the receptor binding domain, which is a specific part area on the virus' protein shell that initiates first contact in attaching to human cells. "If these mutations were there, there'd be a little bit more worry about antibody-based approaches and vaccine approaches," he says, because the shifts might make it harder for antibodies to recognize the virus. But the mutations are not directly on the receptor binding domain, so researchers aren't too worried about those specific changes.
Vaccines are also developed to target multiple sites on a virus, so it's unlikely that a few random mutations to the virus can knock out their power completely, Rasmussen says.
Versions of the virus that are drug- or vaccine-resistant may crop up once therapies are in use, says Lim. If a particular strain is obliterated by drugs or vaccines, then any viruses that survive will be the ones not affected by those treatments and could go on to infect others. But for now, there's no pressure on the virus to change in a way that would help it evade measures that haven't been introduced.
Why are scientists sharing unproven theories?
The main scientific purpose of sharing these papers early and often is to alert other researchers to interesting theories and call attention to potentially meaningful mutations, Lim says.
"It helps us prioritize what mutations should be studied in the lab, because there are so many mutations out there," Lim says. By sharing leads and data-backed theories, scientists are highlighting specific mutations that may be affecting the behavior of the virus, in a sea of all the small changes the virus makes.
So it helps researchers to know that scientists at Los Alamos Lab think that a particular change in the genome is worth additional study, or that a deletion in the virus has been found once and could be found again. The answers may not be definitive, but it feeds the global brain trust of researchers who are all working to understand the coronavirus better and help defeat it.
Original post:
What We Know About Coronavirus Mutations : Goats and Soda - NPR
- 2024 CDC COVID-19 guidelines: Isolation, masks, what you should know - The Arizona Republic - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- Long Covid and Impaired Cognition More Evidence and More Work to Do | NEJM - nejm.org - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- Prospective Memory Assessment before and after Covid-19 | NEJM - nejm.org - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- A pandemic that won't go away as COVID enters its 5th year, NZ needs a realistic strategy - The Conversation - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- Older US adults should get another COVID-19 shot, advisers say - Detroit News - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- Vaping increases susceptibility to COVID-19 infection, study finds - News-Medical.Net - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- Older U.S. adults should get another covid-19 shot, advisers say - TribLIVE - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- Vapers More Susceptible to COVID-19 Infection Than Tobacco Smokers, Reveals Study | Weather.com - The Weather Channel - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- How we met: She was in the next hospital bed and I loved her accent - The Guardian - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- Fleet To Hit Record Size In 2024 But Still Suffering Covid Hangover - Forbes - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- How vaccine hesitancy is contributing to rising rates of measles and COVID - PBS NewsHour - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- How did COVID-19 impact cancer incidence trends in the US? - News-Medical.Net - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- CT-based Assessment at 6-Month Follow-up of COVID-19 Pneumonia patients in China | Scientific Reports - Nature.com - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- Covid in 2024: What to Know About Guidelines, Symptoms and Vaccines - WSJ - The Wall Street Journal - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- Unlocking coronavirus structure through M protein research - News-Medical.Net - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- SARS-CoV-2 fragments may cause problems after infection - National Institutes of Health (NIH) (.gov) - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- People 65 and up should now get another COVID-19 vaccine, CDC recommends - cleveland.com - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- Welcome to the 2024 CFA Annual Report | Covid-19 | news-journal.com - Longview News-Journal - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- Exploring the reported adverse effects of COVID-19 vaccines among vaccinated Arab populations: a multi-national ... - Nature.com - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- R.I. COVID-19 cases increased by 337 last week, with 2 deaths - Providence Business News - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- Older US adults should get another COVID-19 shot, advisers say - NBC Bay Area - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- Cognitive Deficits Seen in COVID-19 Patients Regardless of Symptom Duration - HealthDay - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- CDC recommends seniors get another Covid-19 shot - Baltimore Sun - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- Odds of Severe COVID-19 High for Hematologic Cancer Patients During Pandemic - HealthDay - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- COVID-19 may have small but lasting effects on cognition and memory | Imperial News - Imperial College London - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- More free home COVID-19 tests available from US government - WCVB Boston - November 20th, 2023 [November 20th, 2023]
- Seniors made up 63 percent of covid hospitalizations earlier this year - The Washington Post - November 20th, 2023 [November 20th, 2023]
- Fifth Covid-19 wave sees biggest bump in virus detection since ... - New Zealand Herald - November 20th, 2023 [November 20th, 2023]
- KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor November 2023: With COVID ... - KFF - November 20th, 2023 [November 20th, 2023]
- What to Know About the New Dominant Covid Variant - The New York Times - August 12th, 2023 [August 12th, 2023]
- Should You Get Another Covid Booster Now, or Wait Until the Fall? - The New York Times - August 12th, 2023 [August 12th, 2023]
- A 'mini cyclone' helps detect coronavirus in the air - Science News Explores - August 12th, 2023 [August 12th, 2023]
- Infection prevention and control in the context of coronavirus ... - World Health Organization - August 12th, 2023 [August 12th, 2023]
- Serum ferritin level during hospitalization is associated with Brain ... - Nature.com - August 12th, 2023 [August 12th, 2023]
- Rhode Island Man Sentenced to Three Years in Prison for Theft and ... - Department of Justice - August 12th, 2023 [August 12th, 2023]
- Posts Exaggerate Significance of Swiss Study on Heart Risk and ... - FactCheck.org - August 12th, 2023 [August 12th, 2023]
- Wenstrup Presses Department of Education for Answers on Misuse ... - House Committee on Oversight and Reform | - August 12th, 2023 [August 12th, 2023]
- Biden Administration Fails to Share Intel on COVID-19 Origins, but Independent Evidence Is Piling Up - Heritage.org - June 24th, 2023 [June 24th, 2023]
- Do I need a booster vaccine if I recently had COVID? What if I'm not sure what I had? - The Conversation - June 24th, 2023 [June 24th, 2023]
- Psychics, wrestlers and churches: How online shopping and Covid changed mall tenants - Buffalo News - June 24th, 2023 [June 24th, 2023]
- Report: Incarcerated populations up 4% post-COVID - CorrectionsOne - June 24th, 2023 [June 24th, 2023]
- The National Average for Gross Revenue at ECP Locations Decreased for the Week of June 12 18, Jobson's Latest ... - Vision Monday - June 24th, 2023 [June 24th, 2023]
- ODNI Releases Report on the Potential Links Between the Wuhan ... - Office of the Director of National Intelligence - June 24th, 2023 [June 24th, 2023]
- U.S. Intelligence Agencies May Never Find Covid's Origins, Officials ... - The New York Times - June 24th, 2023 [June 24th, 2023]
- Covid-19 likely came from lab leak, says news report citing US energy ... - March 4th, 2023 [March 4th, 2023]
- Classified Energy Department report finds lab leak likely cause of ... - March 4th, 2023 [March 4th, 2023]
- Mayor Kirk Watson tests positive for COVID-19 - KEYE TV CBS Austin - February 5th, 2023 [February 5th, 2023]
- Biden's plan for ending the emergency declaration for COVID-19 signals a pivotal point in the pandemic 4 questions answered - The Conversation... - February 5th, 2023 [February 5th, 2023]
- Study finds one habit can significantly lower your odds of getting sick from COVID-19 - KATU - February 5th, 2023 [February 5th, 2023]
- How will life change once the COVID-19 emergency ends? - KFOX El Paso - February 5th, 2023 [February 5th, 2023]
- Shipping Corporation of India and Seven Islands Shipping re-join membership of INSA - ETInfra.com - January 30th, 2023 [January 30th, 2023]
- COVID-19 Response | United Nations - December 28th, 2022 [December 28th, 2022]
- Top German virologist says COVID-19 pandemic is over - Hindustan Times - December 28th, 2022 [December 28th, 2022]
- China says impossible to track COVID spread as virus surges - Al Jazeera English - December 14th, 2022 [December 14th, 2022]
- What are the most common COVID symptoms now? Its no longer fever, loss of taste - AL.com - December 14th, 2022 [December 14th, 2022]
- Entropy and life - Wikipedia - November 27th, 2022 [November 27th, 2022]
- Negentropy - Wikipedia - November 27th, 2022 [November 27th, 2022]
- Coronavirus: OC reported 1,602 new cases and six more deaths over the past week, as of Nov. 17 - OCRegister - November 19th, 2022 [November 19th, 2022]
- How COVID-19 damages lungs: The virus attacks mitochondria, continuing an ancient battle that began in the primordial soup - The Conversation - October 30th, 2022 [October 30th, 2022]
- How to save this winter on heating costs - WKYC.com - October 23rd, 2022 [October 23rd, 2022]
- 'Fonseca' book review: The Goan artist's biography misses the art of the matter - The New Indian Express - October 23rd, 2022 [October 23rd, 2022]
- Researchers' tests of lab-made version of Covid virus draw scrutiny - STAT - October 21st, 2022 [October 21st, 2022]
- Coronavirus: Orange County reported 1,427 more cases and seven more deaths in the past week as of Oct. 20 - OCRegister - October 21st, 2022 [October 21st, 2022]
- 3 Illinois Counties at High Community Level for COVID-19 as 1 Million Bivalent Booster Shots Have Been Administered - NBC Chicago - October 21st, 2022 [October 21st, 2022]
- What Is Coronavirus? | Johns Hopkins Medicine - October 17th, 2022 [October 17th, 2022]
- Gaston County reported 177 additional COVID-19 cases this week - Gaston Gazette - October 17th, 2022 [October 17th, 2022]
- Coronavirus Roundup: The Biden Administration Renews the Public Health Emergency for COVID-19 - GovExec.com - October 17th, 2022 [October 17th, 2022]
- Circulation of Public Warning Alert on COVID-19 vaccines fraudulently using PAHO's name and logo - World - ReliefWeb - October 17th, 2022 [October 17th, 2022]
- Time to Get Your Flu Shot and Your COVID-19 Booster Too - Health.mil - October 17th, 2022 [October 17th, 2022]
- Evasive COVID-19 subvariants that you dont know about are spreading fast - Poynter - October 17th, 2022 [October 17th, 2022]
- Deer and mink can harbor Covid-19: Why animal virologists say we need to worry - Inverse - October 17th, 2022 [October 17th, 2022]
- Europe likely entering another COVID wave, says WHO and ECDC - Reuters - October 17th, 2022 [October 17th, 2022]
- Without a nasal vaccine, the U.S. edge in fighting Covid is on the line - POLITICO - October 17th, 2022 [October 17th, 2022]
- COVID-19 Daily Update 10-17-2022 - West Virginia Department of Health and Human Resources - October 17th, 2022 [October 17th, 2022]
- Coronavirus: Government seeking to extend powers behind COVID restrictions until 2025 - Newshub - October 17th, 2022 [October 17th, 2022]
- Shocking: EcoHealth Alliance receives another round of funding for coronavirus bat research in Asia - The Center Square - October 17th, 2022 [October 17th, 2022]
- Opportunities in Health Education in the Post-COVID-19 Era: Transforming Viral to Vital - Cureus - October 17th, 2022 [October 17th, 2022]
- Fauci says COVID-19 was politicized by triple whammy of outbreak, division and 2020 election - WJTV - October 17th, 2022 [October 17th, 2022]
- How long does immunity from the new COVID bivalent boosters last 'in the real world'? - San Francisco Chronicle - October 17th, 2022 [October 17th, 2022]
- Respiratory illnesses have spiked among children. Here's what parents need to know. - Yahoo News - October 17th, 2022 [October 17th, 2022]