In the last two years, COVID-19 has followed a predictable, if painful, pattern: When coronavirus transmission has rebounded, California has been flooded with new cases and hospitals have strained under a deluge of seriously ill patients, a distressing number of whom die.
But in a world awash in vaccines and treatments, and with healthcare providers armed with knowledge gleaned over the course of the pandemic, the latest wave isnt sticking to that script.
Despite wide circulation of the coronavirus the latest peak is the third-highest of the pandemic the impact on hospitals has been relatively minor. Even with the uptick in transmission, COVID-19 deaths have remained fairly low and stable.
And this has occurred even with officials largely eschewing new restrictions and mandates.
In some ways, thats what is supposed to happen: As health experts get better at identifying the coronavirus, vaccinating against it and treating the symptoms, new surges in cases shouldnt lead to excessive jumps in serious illnesses.
But todays environment is not necessarily tomorrows baseline. The coronavirus can mutate rapidly, potentially upending the public health landscape and meriting a different response.
The one thing that is predictable about COVID, in my mind, is that its unpredictable, said UCLA epidemiologist Dr. Robert Kim-Farley.
While its too soon to say for certain, there are signs the current wave is starting to recede. Over the weeklong period ending Thursday, California reported an average of just over 13,400 new cases per day down from the latest spikes high point of nearly 16,700 daily cases, according to data compiled by The Times.
By comparison, last summers Delta surge topped out at almost 14,400 new cases per day, on average.
And more than 8,300 coronavirus-positive patients were hospitalized statewide on some days at the height of Delta almost three times as many as during the most recent wave.
The difference in each surges impact on intensive care units has been even starker. During Delta, there were days with more than 2,000 coronavirus-positive patients in ICUs statewide. In the latest wave, however, that daily census has so far topped out at around 300.
That gap in hospitalizations illustrates how the pandemic has changed.
At the very beginning of the pandemic, we noted right away the game-changers were going to be vaccines, easy access to testing and therapeutics and now we have all those things, said Los Angeles County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer.
It doesnt say the pandemics over. Thats not what weve accomplished, she stressed. What weve accomplished is weve reduced the risk, but we havent eliminated the risk.
And though hospitalizations have been lower, in the aggregate, during the latest wave, Ferrer noted that each infection still carries its own dangers not just severe illness, but the chance of long COVID, as well. Taking individual action to protect yourself, she said, carries the added benefit of helping safeguard those around you, including those at higher risk of serious symptoms or who work jobs that regularly bring them into contact with lots of people.
For me, it makes clear that layering in some protection is still the way to go while enjoying just about everything you want to enjoy, she said.
Californias most restrictive efforts to rein in the coronavirus ended almost exactly a year ago, when the state celebrated its economic reopening by scrapping virtually all restrictions that had long provided the backbone of its pandemic response.
Roughly a month later, with the then-novel Delta variant on the rampage, some parts of the state reinstituted mask mandates in hopes of blunting transmission.
Toward the end of the year, another new foe would arise: the Omicron variant. This highly transmissible strain brought unprecedented viral spread, sending case counts and hospitalizations soaring and prompting officials to reissue a statewide mask mandate for indoor public spaces.
The fury with which those two surges struck left some fearing, and others advocating for, the return of the stringent orders that restricted peoples movements and shut down broad swaths of the economy. However, both waves came and went without California officials resorting to that option.
And during this latest wave fueled by an alphanumeric soup of Omicron subvariants, including BA.2 and BA.2.12.1 such aggressive action seems off the table.
I think, deep in my heart, unless we see a new variant that evades our current vaccine protection, we are not going to need to go back to the more drastic tools we had to use early on the pandemic when we didnt have vaccines, when we didnt have access to testing, when we didnt have therapeutics, Ferrer said in an interview.
During both Delta and the initial Omicron surge, California carefully evaluated the unique characteristics of each variant to determine how to best handle the changes in the behavior of the virus, and used the lessons of the last two years to approach mitigation and adaptation measures through effective and timely strategies, according to the state Department of Public Health.
These lessons and experiences informed our approach to manage each surge and variant. In addition, there were more tools available for disease control during each subsequent surge, including the Delta and Omicron surges, the department wrote in response to an inquiry from The Times. So, rather than using the same mitigation strategies that had been used previously, CDPH focused on vaccines, masks, tests, quarantine, improving ventilation and new therapeutics.
The state has also eschewed its previous practice of setting specific thresholds to tighten or loosen restrictions in favor of what it calls the SMARTER plan which focuses on preparedness and applying lessons learned to better armor California against future surges or new variants.
Each surge and each variant brings with it unique characteristics relative to our neighborhoods and communities specific conditions, the Department of Public Health said in its statement to The Times.
Chief among those, the department added, are getting vaccinated and boosted when eligible and properly wearing high-quality face masks when warranted.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends public indoor masking in counties that have a high COVID-19 community level, the worst on the agencys three-tier scale. That category indicates not only significant community transmission but also that hospital systems may grow strained by coronavirus-positive patients.
We certainly are not at a level at these numbers where you would say, OK, its now, quote, endemic, and we just go about business as usual, Kim-Farley said. I think, though, it is probably indicative of what we might see in the future going forward, that we will see low levels in the community, people can relax and let their guard down a bit. But there will then be other times when we might see surges coming in. ... Thats a time when we mask up again. So I think there may be some on and off a little bit, and hopefully these surges become fewer, more spread out and less intense as we go forward.
As of Thursday, 19 California counties were in the high community level Alameda, Butte, Contra Costa, Del Norte, El Dorado, Fresno, Kings, Lake, Madera, Marin, Monterey, Napa, Placer, Sacramento, San Benito, Santa Clara, Solano, Sonoma and Yolo. However, only Alameda County has reinstituted a public indoor mask mandate.
Ferrer has said Los Angeles County would do the same should it fall in the high COVID-19 community level for two consecutive weeks.
L.A. County, like the state as a whole, continues to strongly recommend residents wear masks indoors in public. But Ferrer acknowledged its a very tough needle to thread and said an unintended consequence of years of health orders might be that people dont grasp the urgency of a recommendation.
People are now assuming if we dont issue orders and require safety measures then its because its not essential, and thats not what we meant, she said. We have always benefited from having folks that are able to listen, ask questions and then, for the most part, align with the safety measures. And I think because its been such a long duration, because theres so much fatigue at this point and desperation in some senses to get back to customary practices, people are waiting for that order before they go ahead and take that sensible precaution.
View post:
- 2024 CDC COVID-19 guidelines: Isolation, masks, what you should know - The Arizona Republic - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- Long Covid and Impaired Cognition More Evidence and More Work to Do | NEJM - nejm.org - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- Prospective Memory Assessment before and after Covid-19 | NEJM - nejm.org - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- A pandemic that won't go away as COVID enters its 5th year, NZ needs a realistic strategy - The Conversation - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- Older US adults should get another COVID-19 shot, advisers say - Detroit News - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- Vaping increases susceptibility to COVID-19 infection, study finds - News-Medical.Net - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- Older U.S. adults should get another covid-19 shot, advisers say - TribLIVE - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- Vapers More Susceptible to COVID-19 Infection Than Tobacco Smokers, Reveals Study | Weather.com - The Weather Channel - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- How we met: She was in the next hospital bed and I loved her accent - The Guardian - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- Fleet To Hit Record Size In 2024 But Still Suffering Covid Hangover - Forbes - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- How vaccine hesitancy is contributing to rising rates of measles and COVID - PBS NewsHour - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- How did COVID-19 impact cancer incidence trends in the US? - News-Medical.Net - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- CT-based Assessment at 6-Month Follow-up of COVID-19 Pneumonia patients in China | Scientific Reports - Nature.com - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- Covid in 2024: What to Know About Guidelines, Symptoms and Vaccines - WSJ - The Wall Street Journal - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- Unlocking coronavirus structure through M protein research - News-Medical.Net - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- SARS-CoV-2 fragments may cause problems after infection - National Institutes of Health (NIH) (.gov) - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- People 65 and up should now get another COVID-19 vaccine, CDC recommends - cleveland.com - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- Welcome to the 2024 CFA Annual Report | Covid-19 | news-journal.com - Longview News-Journal - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- Exploring the reported adverse effects of COVID-19 vaccines among vaccinated Arab populations: a multi-national ... - Nature.com - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- R.I. COVID-19 cases increased by 337 last week, with 2 deaths - Providence Business News - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- Older US adults should get another COVID-19 shot, advisers say - NBC Bay Area - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- Cognitive Deficits Seen in COVID-19 Patients Regardless of Symptom Duration - HealthDay - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- CDC recommends seniors get another Covid-19 shot - Baltimore Sun - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- Odds of Severe COVID-19 High for Hematologic Cancer Patients During Pandemic - HealthDay - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- COVID-19 may have small but lasting effects on cognition and memory | Imperial News - Imperial College London - February 29th, 2024 [February 29th, 2024]
- More free home COVID-19 tests available from US government - WCVB Boston - November 20th, 2023 [November 20th, 2023]
- Seniors made up 63 percent of covid hospitalizations earlier this year - The Washington Post - November 20th, 2023 [November 20th, 2023]
- Fifth Covid-19 wave sees biggest bump in virus detection since ... - New Zealand Herald - November 20th, 2023 [November 20th, 2023]
- KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor November 2023: With COVID ... - KFF - November 20th, 2023 [November 20th, 2023]
- What to Know About the New Dominant Covid Variant - The New York Times - August 12th, 2023 [August 12th, 2023]
- Should You Get Another Covid Booster Now, or Wait Until the Fall? - The New York Times - August 12th, 2023 [August 12th, 2023]
- A 'mini cyclone' helps detect coronavirus in the air - Science News Explores - August 12th, 2023 [August 12th, 2023]
- Infection prevention and control in the context of coronavirus ... - World Health Organization - August 12th, 2023 [August 12th, 2023]
- Serum ferritin level during hospitalization is associated with Brain ... - Nature.com - August 12th, 2023 [August 12th, 2023]
- Rhode Island Man Sentenced to Three Years in Prison for Theft and ... - Department of Justice - August 12th, 2023 [August 12th, 2023]
- Posts Exaggerate Significance of Swiss Study on Heart Risk and ... - FactCheck.org - August 12th, 2023 [August 12th, 2023]
- Wenstrup Presses Department of Education for Answers on Misuse ... - House Committee on Oversight and Reform | - August 12th, 2023 [August 12th, 2023]
- Biden Administration Fails to Share Intel on COVID-19 Origins, but Independent Evidence Is Piling Up - Heritage.org - June 24th, 2023 [June 24th, 2023]
- Do I need a booster vaccine if I recently had COVID? What if I'm not sure what I had? - The Conversation - June 24th, 2023 [June 24th, 2023]
- Psychics, wrestlers and churches: How online shopping and Covid changed mall tenants - Buffalo News - June 24th, 2023 [June 24th, 2023]
- Report: Incarcerated populations up 4% post-COVID - CorrectionsOne - June 24th, 2023 [June 24th, 2023]
- The National Average for Gross Revenue at ECP Locations Decreased for the Week of June 12 18, Jobson's Latest ... - Vision Monday - June 24th, 2023 [June 24th, 2023]
- ODNI Releases Report on the Potential Links Between the Wuhan ... - Office of the Director of National Intelligence - June 24th, 2023 [June 24th, 2023]
- U.S. Intelligence Agencies May Never Find Covid's Origins, Officials ... - The New York Times - June 24th, 2023 [June 24th, 2023]
- Covid-19 likely came from lab leak, says news report citing US energy ... - March 4th, 2023 [March 4th, 2023]
- Classified Energy Department report finds lab leak likely cause of ... - March 4th, 2023 [March 4th, 2023]
- Mayor Kirk Watson tests positive for COVID-19 - KEYE TV CBS Austin - February 5th, 2023 [February 5th, 2023]
- Biden's plan for ending the emergency declaration for COVID-19 signals a pivotal point in the pandemic 4 questions answered - The Conversation... - February 5th, 2023 [February 5th, 2023]
- Study finds one habit can significantly lower your odds of getting sick from COVID-19 - KATU - February 5th, 2023 [February 5th, 2023]
- How will life change once the COVID-19 emergency ends? - KFOX El Paso - February 5th, 2023 [February 5th, 2023]
- Shipping Corporation of India and Seven Islands Shipping re-join membership of INSA - ETInfra.com - January 30th, 2023 [January 30th, 2023]
- COVID-19 Response | United Nations - December 28th, 2022 [December 28th, 2022]
- Top German virologist says COVID-19 pandemic is over - Hindustan Times - December 28th, 2022 [December 28th, 2022]
- China says impossible to track COVID spread as virus surges - Al Jazeera English - December 14th, 2022 [December 14th, 2022]
- What are the most common COVID symptoms now? Its no longer fever, loss of taste - AL.com - December 14th, 2022 [December 14th, 2022]
- Entropy and life - Wikipedia - November 27th, 2022 [November 27th, 2022]
- Negentropy - Wikipedia - November 27th, 2022 [November 27th, 2022]
- Coronavirus: OC reported 1,602 new cases and six more deaths over the past week, as of Nov. 17 - OCRegister - November 19th, 2022 [November 19th, 2022]
- How COVID-19 damages lungs: The virus attacks mitochondria, continuing an ancient battle that began in the primordial soup - The Conversation - October 30th, 2022 [October 30th, 2022]
- How to save this winter on heating costs - WKYC.com - October 23rd, 2022 [October 23rd, 2022]
- 'Fonseca' book review: The Goan artist's biography misses the art of the matter - The New Indian Express - October 23rd, 2022 [October 23rd, 2022]
- Researchers' tests of lab-made version of Covid virus draw scrutiny - STAT - October 21st, 2022 [October 21st, 2022]
- Coronavirus: Orange County reported 1,427 more cases and seven more deaths in the past week as of Oct. 20 - OCRegister - October 21st, 2022 [October 21st, 2022]
- 3 Illinois Counties at High Community Level for COVID-19 as 1 Million Bivalent Booster Shots Have Been Administered - NBC Chicago - October 21st, 2022 [October 21st, 2022]
- What Is Coronavirus? | Johns Hopkins Medicine - October 17th, 2022 [October 17th, 2022]
- Gaston County reported 177 additional COVID-19 cases this week - Gaston Gazette - October 17th, 2022 [October 17th, 2022]
- Coronavirus Roundup: The Biden Administration Renews the Public Health Emergency for COVID-19 - GovExec.com - October 17th, 2022 [October 17th, 2022]
- Circulation of Public Warning Alert on COVID-19 vaccines fraudulently using PAHO's name and logo - World - ReliefWeb - October 17th, 2022 [October 17th, 2022]
- Time to Get Your Flu Shot and Your COVID-19 Booster Too - Health.mil - October 17th, 2022 [October 17th, 2022]
- Evasive COVID-19 subvariants that you dont know about are spreading fast - Poynter - October 17th, 2022 [October 17th, 2022]
- Deer and mink can harbor Covid-19: Why animal virologists say we need to worry - Inverse - October 17th, 2022 [October 17th, 2022]
- Europe likely entering another COVID wave, says WHO and ECDC - Reuters - October 17th, 2022 [October 17th, 2022]
- Without a nasal vaccine, the U.S. edge in fighting Covid is on the line - POLITICO - October 17th, 2022 [October 17th, 2022]
- COVID-19 Daily Update 10-17-2022 - West Virginia Department of Health and Human Resources - October 17th, 2022 [October 17th, 2022]
- Coronavirus: Government seeking to extend powers behind COVID restrictions until 2025 - Newshub - October 17th, 2022 [October 17th, 2022]
- Shocking: EcoHealth Alliance receives another round of funding for coronavirus bat research in Asia - The Center Square - October 17th, 2022 [October 17th, 2022]
- Opportunities in Health Education in the Post-COVID-19 Era: Transforming Viral to Vital - Cureus - October 17th, 2022 [October 17th, 2022]
- Fauci says COVID-19 was politicized by triple whammy of outbreak, division and 2020 election - WJTV - October 17th, 2022 [October 17th, 2022]
- How long does immunity from the new COVID bivalent boosters last 'in the real world'? - San Francisco Chronicle - October 17th, 2022 [October 17th, 2022]
- Respiratory illnesses have spiked among children. Here's what parents need to know. - Yahoo News - October 17th, 2022 [October 17th, 2022]