Small COVID-19 hospitalization bump forecast for spring in Oregon – OregonLive

COVID-19 hospitalizations in Oregon could climb to around 300 this spring due to a particularly infectious coronavirus subvariant and the states decision to lift mask requirements, a new Oregon Health & Science University forecast predicted Friday.

The projected bump in hospitalizations is minuscule compared to the peaks reached during the delta and omicron waves. About half of those in the hospital would be there to get treatment for a different condition but would test positive for COVID-19, according to the universitys estimates. Hospitalizations would then fall by around mid-June, according to the forecast.

Cases and hospitalizations have been dropping precipitously since the omicron surge peaked in January. Daily average cases are now as low as they were before the delta wave. Hospitalizations Friday were down to 157 occupied beds, 86% lower than the omicron peak.

Forecasting for the unpredictable coronavirus has been challenging throughout the pandemic, sometimes underestimating the likelihood of surges until they are in full swing and other times projecting dire situations that dont materialize.

Experts have previously said that the BA.2 omicron subvariant is unlikely to drive a major surge in cases, given existing levels of immunity. But officials have said they do expect some rise in cases from the subvariant, which is estimated to be about 50% to 60% more contagious than the original omicron.

Fedor Zarkhin

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Small COVID-19 hospitalization bump forecast for spring in Oregon - OregonLive