Former UK Cabinet Minister Michael Gove (R) at Athens International Airport, Greece, August 2022
Published in partnership with the Centre for Brexit Studies:
I think the people in this country have had enough of experts from organisations with acronyms saying that they know what is best and getting it consistently wrong. Michael Gove, June 2016
It is more than 2 1/2 years since the UK formally departed, with Prime Minister Boris Johnson proclaiming the dawn of a new era. More than six months since Jacob Rees-Mogg was anointed Minister of Brexit Opportunities.
So how have the predictions of the Remoaners and Project Fear fared?
By 2020, GDP would be over 3% smaller than otherwise (with continued EU membership), equivalent to a cost per household of 2200.By 2030, in a central scenario GDP would be over 5% lower than otherwise with the cost of BrexiT equivalent to 3200 per household. OECD Economic Policy Paper, April 2016
UK GDP is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2022 UK Government, August 12, 2022
The MPC [Bank of Englands Monetary Policy Committee] now projects that the UK will enter recession from the fourth quarter of 2022, and that the recession will last five quarters as real household post-tax income falls sharply in 2022 and 2023 and consumption begins to contract. CNBC, August 4, 2022
The UK [will] be faced with a noxious cocktail of depressed business confidence; tightening financial conditions; higher inflation; falling real wages; and monetary policy tightening to offset that higher inflation. Neville Hill, Credit Suisse, January 2016
The Office for National Statistics said the consumer prices index rose by 10.1% in the year to July, up from a reading of 9.4% in June and entering double figures at an earlier stage than anticipated. The figure was last higher in February 1982. The Guardian, 17 August 2022
Inflation is expected to risefrom 9.4% in June to just over 13% in 2022 Q4, and to remain at very elevated levels throughout much of 2023. Bank of England, August 3, 2022
The NIESR [National Institute of Economic and Social Research] analysis suggests that leaving the EU and instead establishing a free-trade agreement with the rest of the bloc, similar to the arrangement that Switzerland has could reduce wages in the UK by around 3.1 per cent to 3.8 per cent in real terms within 15 years.
The effects would be far worse if the UK needed to fall back on a WTO trading relationship. In that case, they put the hit to real wages at 4.6 per cent to 6.3 per cent by 2030. Financial Times, 10 May 2016
The real value of UK wages has fallen at a record rate and remains below 2008 levels, according to data published by the Office for National Statistics.
During the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, real-pay growth for UK workers the difference between earnings and inflation fell to a low of -2.7 per cent in September 2011. But the latest figures from the ONS suggest that the current economic crisis has broken that record, with wage growth falling by approximately 3 per cent between October 2021 and June 2022. New Statesman, 16 August 2022
Of course, Brexiteers and the Johnson Government are going to play global conditions as their Get Out of Hell Free card. Chancellor Nadim Zahawi sheltered in the anodyne statement on Wednesday, after the publication of the 40-year record for inflation, I understand that times are tough, and people are worried about increases in prices that countries around the world are facing.
And of course, part of the reason for the economic deterioration has been a series of shocks from the Coronavirus pandemic to disruption of supply chains to Russias invasion of Ukraine.
But the fundamental is that Brexit, isolating the UK from the EU and its largest market, left Britain in a weakened position to deal with those shocks. As a result, the UK is out-performing every other developed country in its downward spiral.
Among the G7 countries (UK, US, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan), only the UK is projected to have flat or negative growth in 2023.
The projected UK inflation rate for 2023 far exceeds that of its G7 compatriots. While the Bank of England expects the British rate to remain above. 10%, the US rise is expected to be 3% in 2023. Canadas is expected to be 2%.
Adam Posen, who set interest rates for the Bank of England and is now president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, summarizes that 80% of the difference between inflation in the UK and other countries is due to Brexit.
Youve seen a huge drop in migrant labour, a disruption in labour markets that everybody experienced due to Covid and reopening, but with fundamentally less elasticity and [Brexit] has to be a major part of it.
Posen also notes that Brexit has reduced the openness of UK trade openness and cut inflows of foreign direct investment.
Vicky Pryce, a former head of the Government Economic Service and chief economic adviser at the Centre for Economics and Business Research, adds that a very substantial drop in the value of the poundimmediately inflated input costs after the Brexit referendum in 2016.
That also tends to discourage companies from investing, so you add to supply problems for the future, she explains.
Yes, we are bearing the soaring costs of Government mismanagement and deregulation of energy markets. Yes, the UK has long-standing issues with business investment and loose monetary policy.
But this is not an either-or. Brexit has interacted with other structural and tactical weaknesses to whip up the storm.
Meanwhile, as the Conservative Party is mired in the pillow fight over who succeeds Boris Johnson, Michael Gove has disappeared over the past month except when he was caught up in a lengthy queue at Athens International Airport on August 14.
Former Labour Party councillor Candida Jones spotted Gove as she was enduring a 30-hour delay of her return to the UK because of a lack of staff due to the pandemic compounded, in the case of the UK, by Brexit.
In a 15-minute discussion, Jones rebuffed Goves attempt to explain the supposed benefits of Brexit vaccine rollouts and agricultural reforms: You are a smart guy, and know what you are telling me is not true, and you have got to stop treating the British people as if were stupid.
Gove made no comment, including whether he blamed experts for the encounter.
Like Loading...
See original here:
Yes, Mr. Gove, The Experts Were Right About Brexit - EA WorldView
- Its clearer than ever that Brexit has failed lets not inflict its miseries on young people - The Guardian - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- 'I might as well stop and diversify into holiday lets' new research reveals the reality of farming after Brexit - The Conversation - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- French bank to close dozens of Britons' accounts citing Brexit - The Connexion - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- UK-US trade deal 'could be easier' with Donald Trump in the White House, says Lord Frost - Express - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- Labour's Brexit conundrum - The Week - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- Post-Brexit UK Risks Being 'Left Out In The Cold' As EU Coordinates Action On Shortages - Pink Sheet - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- Brussels wants post-Brexit talks with UK on new youth mobility rights - POLITICO Europe - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- Ravaged by austerity, chastened by Brexit: how can Britain have influence abroad when its broken at home? - The Guardian - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- Sunak rejects offer of youth mobility scheme between EU and UK - The Guardian - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- Brexit, austerity and how Labour could fix Britain - Tortoise - Tortoise Media - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- NYSE considers 24/7 trading; Goldman Sachs moves senior banker to Paris amid post-Brexit overhaul - The Banker - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- EU Delighted by Prospect of UK Labour Reneging on Brexit - The European Conservative - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- Reverse the Brexit fiasco! - Workers' Liberty - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- The writing is on the wall Starmer and Brussels will undo Brexit - The Telegraph - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- UK to delay start of health and safety checks on EU imports report - The Guardian - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- Journalist Asks David Cameron Outright If Rwanda Bill Is A Consequence Of Brexit - HuffPost UK - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- 'We retired to Spain after Brexit and it's much cheaper - the UK seems miserable' - inews - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- The EU would rather destroy the planet than let Brexit succeed - The Telegraph - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- War heroes and Brexit: Why Greeks will always love the British - The Telegraph - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- WATCH: Castletownbere fishermen to feature in documentary on impact of Brexit | Southern Star - The Southern Star - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- Britons told their French bank accounts 'are being closed due to Brexit' - inews - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- Post-Brexit border controls delayed again in the UK - hortidaily.com - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- UK rejects mobility agreement with Europe to help young people travel and live abroad - The Independent - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- EU proposing post-Brexit joint youth work and study scheme with UK - Sky News - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- Brexit border checks will start from 30 April - Fruitnet - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- Lord of the Rings star Dominic Monaghan says 'Brexit was a con' and urges others to take action - Manchester Evening News - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- The EU has finally admitted it needs Britain more than we need it - The Telegraph - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- The Brexit revelations: May's no-deal, a Canada plan and mating porcupines - The Times - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- Italian citizens bank accounts frozen owing to shameful post-Brexit rules - The Guardian - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- EU Policy. UK hails financial access deal with Switzerland after Brexit losses - Euronews - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Brexit: How the NI Protocol became the Windsor Framework - BBC.com - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- EU Approves Three-Year Delay to Post-Brexit Tariffs on EVs - OilPrice.com - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Travel chaos is 'only going to get worse' when new EU fingerprint checks come in - NationalWorld - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- British exporters call on government to ease post-Brexit trade frictions with EU - The Guardian - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Brits visiting Europe will have to give fingerprints under new rules - Metro.co.uk - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Ursula von der Leyen humiliated as UK forced major EU climbdown in Brexit car victory - Express - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Modern slavery a feature of care sector in England since Brexit - The Guardian - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- US president Joe Biden ditches trade deal talks with Britain over fears of job losses - The Independent - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Brexit inflation: The role of trade policy uncertainty in increasing UK import prices - CEPR - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- UK and EU Reach Accord on Post-Brexit Electric Car Tariff Postponement - IndiaTimes - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- How are Brexit travel restrictions easing outbound and inbound? - The Independent - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Jeremy Hunt to strike post-Brexit banking deal with Switzerland - Yahoo Finance UK - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Britain was right to Brexit | MoneyWeek - MoneyWeek - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Brexit pain could be eased for Brits with homes in France - The Independent - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- DUP talks about post-Brexit trading have ended, Northern Ireland secretary says - The Guardian - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Have voters cooled on the prospect of re-joining the EU? - UK in a Changing Europe - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Brexit will really start to bite us in 2024. How ready are you? - The Independent - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- UK ditches company working time rules in further post-Brexit red tape cuts - City A.M. - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- Sovereignty, economy, immigration: still the three pillars of the Brexit ... - UK in a Changing Europe - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- Just because Brexit isnt on the frontpages, doesnt mean its settled - UK in a Changing Europe - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- Post-Brexit EU clearing rules set for more relaxed approach - International Financing Review - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- There's trouble in store for post-Brexit Britain - The New European - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- SMEs feel the squeeze from Brexit - Financial Times - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- Three years of polling on the Protocol reveals the depth of the new ... - Newswise - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- James O'Brien on post-Brexit Britain: 'This conflation of patriotism ... - The Irish Times - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- What's really behind GB News signing Boris as the voice of Brexit ... - Prospect Magazine - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- Revealed: How Brexit and the Covid hangover are affecting the ... - Car Dealer Magazine - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- Grayson Perry's portrait from the edge - The New European - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- Bankers bonuses are back and the long 2010s dominated by Brexit ... - City A.M. - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- Ports and truckers clash over post-Brexit border costs - Financial Times - September 17th, 2023 [September 17th, 2023]
- What would the UK look like without Brexit? - The New Statesman - September 17th, 2023 [September 17th, 2023]
- The long road of Brexit: A shifting regulatory reality - New Food - September 17th, 2023 [September 17th, 2023]
- Make-or-break moment looms for Northern Ireland's failed government - POLITICO Europe - September 17th, 2023 [September 17th, 2023]
- Barry Jones The Voice is our Brexit moment - The Saturday Paper - September 17th, 2023 [September 17th, 2023]
- Mark Carney Has Delivered A Stunning Takedown Of Brexit And Liz Truss - Yahoo Movies UK - September 17th, 2023 [September 17th, 2023]
- It's not just the 'Remainers' whingeing Britain really is broken - The Australian Financial Review - September 17th, 2023 [September 17th, 2023]
- UK SMEs not ready for 'avalanche' of Brexit 2.0 rules and taxes - Financial Times - September 17th, 2023 [September 17th, 2023]
- Brexit Bitterness Continues To Cloud Reporting The European Conservative - The European Conservative - September 17th, 2023 [September 17th, 2023]
- Green Brexit doesn't extend to pesticide protections - Footprint - September 17th, 2023 [September 17th, 2023]
- Theresa May says her Brexit deal was better than Boris Johnson's - POLITICO Europe - September 17th, 2023 [September 17th, 2023]
- Remainer UK civil servants were in tears over Brexit, top official says - POLITICO Europe - September 17th, 2023 [September 17th, 2023]
- Mark Carney Has Delivered A Stunning Takedown Of Brexit And Liz Truss - Yahoo News Canada - September 17th, 2023 [September 17th, 2023]
- More Brits than ever say Brexit was wrong choice: YouGov survey - Reuters UK - July 19th, 2023 [July 19th, 2023]
- Britain's fishing industry in line for post-Brexit boost following the end of EU red tape - Daily Mail - July 19th, 2023 [July 19th, 2023]
- Tabloids are misleading their readers over Brexit at their own peril - The Media Leader - July 19th, 2023 [July 19th, 2023]
- UK Support to Rejoin the EU Passes 50% for the First Time Since Brexit - Yahoo News - July 19th, 2023 [July 19th, 2023]
- Record Numbers of Brits Regretting Brexit, Survey Shows - SchengenVisaInfo.com - SchengenVisaInfo.com - July 19th, 2023 [July 19th, 2023]
- Almost two-thirds of Brits think Brexit has been a failure - The New European - July 19th, 2023 [July 19th, 2023]
- Five ways UK fashion industry can grow post-Brexit, Covid - just-style.com - July 19th, 2023 [July 19th, 2023]
- British companies start to grapple with 'Brexit 2.0' - Financial Times - July 19th, 2023 [July 19th, 2023]