Bars are full, restaurants are turning away customers who dont have reservations and, judging by the people laden with bags, the Christmas shopping season is already under way. Belfast has known plenty of crises down the decades but this doesnt feel like one of them.
Instead, on a Thursday evening in November, Northern Irelands capital has the air of any other big provincial UK city, with a thriving hospitality sector and plenty of money changing hands. Were it not for the accents, it could be Leeds or Manchester.
But as with Leeds and Manchester, scars are visible just a short walk from the city centre, and in Belfast these result not just from the impact of industrial decline but from the Troubles, too. The Berlin Wall may have come down; the peace wall separating the Falls and Shankill roads has not.
Brexit has added a new level of complexity to the highly charged politics of Northern Ireland. The protocol agreed by London and Brussels prevented a hard border being created between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland by putting a barrier between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK in the Irish Sea.
If the plan was to make the peace process more secure, it didnt work. Unionist politicians say strict interpretation of the protocol by the EU has made the agreement unworkable, and Brexit minister Lord Frost has for weeks been threatening to invoke article 16, which puts an emergency brake on the Northern Ireland chapter of the UK-EU deal. That could trigger a full-blown trade war, which would be devastating for businesses already feeling the impact of the extra trade friction.
Archie Norman, chairman of Marks & Spencer, says: At the moment things are not too bad. We do have border constraints but they are deal-able-with. Things are a lot better than they are in the Republic of Ireland or in continental Europe, where weve announced a restructuring of our food operations.
Norman insists there isnt a food safety problem. Our food standards are higher than those in continental Europe. The sensible thing would be to agree to product equivalence, where we would agree not to drop standards. If we were planning any variations, we would notify the EU and they could then decide what to do about it.
In the grand scale of things the economic issue is so trivial. Northern Ireland has a similar population to Hertfordshire. Of course it matters hugely politically, but there is no hazard to anyone from produce from the rest of the UK arriving there. We are at risk of going to war over nothing.
Northern Ireland secretary Brandon Lewis wants a deal that gives exporters the best of both worlds access to the EU single market and the UK internal market.
The conditions are met to trigger article 16, he said, but we dont want to use it. We would much rather come to an agreement with the EU. Thats achievable with a different implementation process.
Lewis says the public discourse over Northern Ireland focuses on Brexit and the Troubles, and it is hard to cut through that so businesses and individuals see the opportunities that exist. Everyone wants to talk about the protocol and the legacy of the past. There is a different story going on.
One part of that story is the boom in Northern Irelands film and TV industry catalysed by Game of Thrones. What began with some modest pump-priming in 2010 led to eight blockbuster series and acted as a magnet for other productions. We invested heavily in the pilot. We took a risk and it paid off, said Richard Williams, chief executive of Northern Ireland Screen.
GoT blazed a trail: after it came, among others, Line of Duty, Derry Girls, Dalgleish, a new mini-series based on Henry Fieldings novel Tom Jones, and The Northman, a new Viking revenge film starring Nicole Kidman. Belfast now has three film studios, and Williams says the success of the industry is a shining example of what was meant to happen post the Good Friday agreement.
PAC group a manufacturing firm in north Belfast that comes up with solutions to engineering problems may lack the stardust of a new Kidman movie, but in its way it is emblematic of the Northern Ireland economy: small (45 employees) but growing fast post-lockdown, and now running into supply constraints.
Darren Leslie, the companys business development director and one of its founders, said: Things are starting to bounce back. Everybody is busy. Nobody can get people. Workload is going through the roof. We are having trouble finding the right people and keeping them.
More than any other part of the UK, Northern Ireland is a land of contrasts. It has by far the highest share of public sector employment, yet Queens Belfast boasts the most spin-offs of any university, and over the past 25 years public-private partnership has helped build an impressive cybersecurity cluster. It is the poorest region and the happiest.
John Turner, professor of finance at Queens, said Northern Ireland had an abundance of social capital that may explain high happiness levels. People have come through the Troubles and can deal with adversity. Maybe it has made people a bit more resilient.
Graham Brownlow of Queens Universitys management school said Northern Ireland had three sets of economic problems. First, it shared in the problems of the UK economic model and was entwined in that. Second, the UKs weaknesses such as poor productivity and low investment in R&D, were magnified in Northern Ireland. Finally, it had its own unique problems: the protocol, the shared border, and the fact that the Good Friday agreement didnt really take account of the need to run for economic reconstruction alongside political reconciliation.
A lot of people suggest solutions that dont deal with all the sets of problems. Theyll suggest a silver-bullet solution such as having the same low rate of corporation tax as the republic but there isnt one, Brownlow says.
The Troubles held the economy back, leading to weaker investment and trade. Public spending plugged the gap, and has been rebadged since the Good Friday agreement to form part of the peace dividend. But political instability has been holding back the economy since partition in 1921, and in the early 1960s the Treasury pressed for closure of the shipbuilders Harland and Wolff as part of an economic restructuring.
The close links between politicians and businesspeople foster cronyism. The education system remains largely fractured along Catholic-Protestant lines. Northern Ireland has the largest proportion of Neets young people not in employment, education or training in the UK. Small businesses tend to stay small.
Owen Reidy, assistant general secretary at the Irish Congress of Trade Unions, also complained of a lack of a long-term strategy, and of squabbling local politicians possibily over-estimating their importance: This is a little place on the fringes of Europe. There is too much emphasis on looking south, looking east or looking across the Atlantic.
Some look to daddy in London; some look to mummy in Dublin. But mummy and daddy are not that interested any more.
Ever since Milton Friedman coined the phrase, economists have been arguing about the merits of helicopter money drops of free cash designed to encourage consumers to spend. Northern Ireland is putting the theory to test.
Taking its lead from a scheme tried in Jersey last year, every adult in the country has been given a Mastercard loaded with 100 that they have to spend before mid-December. In an attempt to support local businesses and encourage high street footfall, the money cant be spent online.
Gordon Lyons, Northern Irelands minister of the economy, says if every adult spends up to the 100 limit, there will be a 140m boost to the economy. We wanted to give businesses an immediate shot in the arm and we are at the peak of the scheme right now.
Lyons is hoping for an even bigger boost thanks to a multiplier effect from, say, someone buying a new washing machine and needing to hire a plumber to fit it. Mastercard says there was a discernible multiplier effect in Jersey.
Even so, some say the money from the UK governments Covid recovery fund might have been used more effectively. Peter Bryson of Save the Children in Northern Ireland said helicopter money would be better spent on topping up the incomes of those on universal credit or child payments to the one in four Northern Irish children living in poverty.
SDLP politician Matthew OToole asked: Is this the right time for a stimulus? People are going to be using it on Black Friday and it is hard to see it having an added stimulus.
He thinks it a fascinating economic experiment, though. People will be doing PhDs on it for years.
Read more:
Northern Ireland is huge in TV, but post-Brexit reality is far less glitzy - The Guardian
- Its clearer than ever that Brexit has failed lets not inflict its miseries on young people - The Guardian - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- 'I might as well stop and diversify into holiday lets' new research reveals the reality of farming after Brexit - The Conversation - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- French bank to close dozens of Britons' accounts citing Brexit - The Connexion - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- UK-US trade deal 'could be easier' with Donald Trump in the White House, says Lord Frost - Express - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- Labour's Brexit conundrum - The Week - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- Post-Brexit UK Risks Being 'Left Out In The Cold' As EU Coordinates Action On Shortages - Pink Sheet - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- Brussels wants post-Brexit talks with UK on new youth mobility rights - POLITICO Europe - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- Ravaged by austerity, chastened by Brexit: how can Britain have influence abroad when its broken at home? - The Guardian - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- Sunak rejects offer of youth mobility scheme between EU and UK - The Guardian - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- Brexit, austerity and how Labour could fix Britain - Tortoise - Tortoise Media - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- NYSE considers 24/7 trading; Goldman Sachs moves senior banker to Paris amid post-Brexit overhaul - The Banker - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- EU Delighted by Prospect of UK Labour Reneging on Brexit - The European Conservative - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- Reverse the Brexit fiasco! - Workers' Liberty - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- The writing is on the wall Starmer and Brussels will undo Brexit - The Telegraph - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- UK to delay start of health and safety checks on EU imports report - The Guardian - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- Journalist Asks David Cameron Outright If Rwanda Bill Is A Consequence Of Brexit - HuffPost UK - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- 'We retired to Spain after Brexit and it's much cheaper - the UK seems miserable' - inews - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- The EU would rather destroy the planet than let Brexit succeed - The Telegraph - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- War heroes and Brexit: Why Greeks will always love the British - The Telegraph - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- WATCH: Castletownbere fishermen to feature in documentary on impact of Brexit | Southern Star - The Southern Star - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- Britons told their French bank accounts 'are being closed due to Brexit' - inews - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- Post-Brexit border controls delayed again in the UK - hortidaily.com - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- UK rejects mobility agreement with Europe to help young people travel and live abroad - The Independent - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- EU proposing post-Brexit joint youth work and study scheme with UK - Sky News - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- Brexit border checks will start from 30 April - Fruitnet - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- Lord of the Rings star Dominic Monaghan says 'Brexit was a con' and urges others to take action - Manchester Evening News - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- The EU has finally admitted it needs Britain more than we need it - The Telegraph - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- The Brexit revelations: May's no-deal, a Canada plan and mating porcupines - The Times - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- Italian citizens bank accounts frozen owing to shameful post-Brexit rules - The Guardian - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- EU Policy. UK hails financial access deal with Switzerland after Brexit losses - Euronews - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Brexit: How the NI Protocol became the Windsor Framework - BBC.com - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- EU Approves Three-Year Delay to Post-Brexit Tariffs on EVs - OilPrice.com - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Travel chaos is 'only going to get worse' when new EU fingerprint checks come in - NationalWorld - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- British exporters call on government to ease post-Brexit trade frictions with EU - The Guardian - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Brits visiting Europe will have to give fingerprints under new rules - Metro.co.uk - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Ursula von der Leyen humiliated as UK forced major EU climbdown in Brexit car victory - Express - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Modern slavery a feature of care sector in England since Brexit - The Guardian - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- US president Joe Biden ditches trade deal talks with Britain over fears of job losses - The Independent - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Brexit inflation: The role of trade policy uncertainty in increasing UK import prices - CEPR - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- UK and EU Reach Accord on Post-Brexit Electric Car Tariff Postponement - IndiaTimes - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- How are Brexit travel restrictions easing outbound and inbound? - The Independent - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Jeremy Hunt to strike post-Brexit banking deal with Switzerland - Yahoo Finance UK - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Britain was right to Brexit | MoneyWeek - MoneyWeek - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Brexit pain could be eased for Brits with homes in France - The Independent - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- DUP talks about post-Brexit trading have ended, Northern Ireland secretary says - The Guardian - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Have voters cooled on the prospect of re-joining the EU? - UK in a Changing Europe - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Brexit will really start to bite us in 2024. How ready are you? - The Independent - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- UK ditches company working time rules in further post-Brexit red tape cuts - City A.M. - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- Sovereignty, economy, immigration: still the three pillars of the Brexit ... - UK in a Changing Europe - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- Just because Brexit isnt on the frontpages, doesnt mean its settled - UK in a Changing Europe - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- Post-Brexit EU clearing rules set for more relaxed approach - International Financing Review - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- There's trouble in store for post-Brexit Britain - The New European - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- SMEs feel the squeeze from Brexit - Financial Times - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- Three years of polling on the Protocol reveals the depth of the new ... - Newswise - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- James O'Brien on post-Brexit Britain: 'This conflation of patriotism ... - The Irish Times - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- What's really behind GB News signing Boris as the voice of Brexit ... - Prospect Magazine - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- Revealed: How Brexit and the Covid hangover are affecting the ... - Car Dealer Magazine - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- Grayson Perry's portrait from the edge - The New European - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- Bankers bonuses are back and the long 2010s dominated by Brexit ... - City A.M. - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- Ports and truckers clash over post-Brexit border costs - Financial Times - September 17th, 2023 [September 17th, 2023]
- What would the UK look like without Brexit? - The New Statesman - September 17th, 2023 [September 17th, 2023]
- The long road of Brexit: A shifting regulatory reality - New Food - September 17th, 2023 [September 17th, 2023]
- Make-or-break moment looms for Northern Ireland's failed government - POLITICO Europe - September 17th, 2023 [September 17th, 2023]
- Barry Jones The Voice is our Brexit moment - The Saturday Paper - September 17th, 2023 [September 17th, 2023]
- Mark Carney Has Delivered A Stunning Takedown Of Brexit And Liz Truss - Yahoo Movies UK - September 17th, 2023 [September 17th, 2023]
- It's not just the 'Remainers' whingeing Britain really is broken - The Australian Financial Review - September 17th, 2023 [September 17th, 2023]
- UK SMEs not ready for 'avalanche' of Brexit 2.0 rules and taxes - Financial Times - September 17th, 2023 [September 17th, 2023]
- Brexit Bitterness Continues To Cloud Reporting The European Conservative - The European Conservative - September 17th, 2023 [September 17th, 2023]
- Green Brexit doesn't extend to pesticide protections - Footprint - September 17th, 2023 [September 17th, 2023]
- Theresa May says her Brexit deal was better than Boris Johnson's - POLITICO Europe - September 17th, 2023 [September 17th, 2023]
- Remainer UK civil servants were in tears over Brexit, top official says - POLITICO Europe - September 17th, 2023 [September 17th, 2023]
- Mark Carney Has Delivered A Stunning Takedown Of Brexit And Liz Truss - Yahoo News Canada - September 17th, 2023 [September 17th, 2023]
- More Brits than ever say Brexit was wrong choice: YouGov survey - Reuters UK - July 19th, 2023 [July 19th, 2023]
- Britain's fishing industry in line for post-Brexit boost following the end of EU red tape - Daily Mail - July 19th, 2023 [July 19th, 2023]
- Tabloids are misleading their readers over Brexit at their own peril - The Media Leader - July 19th, 2023 [July 19th, 2023]
- UK Support to Rejoin the EU Passes 50% for the First Time Since Brexit - Yahoo News - July 19th, 2023 [July 19th, 2023]
- Record Numbers of Brits Regretting Brexit, Survey Shows - SchengenVisaInfo.com - SchengenVisaInfo.com - July 19th, 2023 [July 19th, 2023]
- Almost two-thirds of Brits think Brexit has been a failure - The New European - July 19th, 2023 [July 19th, 2023]
- Five ways UK fashion industry can grow post-Brexit, Covid - just-style.com - July 19th, 2023 [July 19th, 2023]
- British companies start to grapple with 'Brexit 2.0' - Financial Times - July 19th, 2023 [July 19th, 2023]