When can we truly say goodbye to this bear market? While Bank of Americas global fund managers are no longer apocalyptically bearish, some on Wall Street remain wary.
Add our call of the day to that last batch. It comes from True Contrarian blog and newsletterschief executive,Steven Jon Kaplan, who sees investors mired in what could be the longest bear market in history, and approaching the next and probably the biggest percentage drop of this bear market so far.
MarketWatch last spoke to Kaplan in mid-November 2021, when he warned of a looming selloff for stocks, notably big highfliers. Just days later, the Invesco QQQ QQQ, -2.63% exchange-traded fund (ETF) that tracks the Nasdaq-100 Index, and many other tech funds topped out. The S&P 500 SPX, -2.14% peak followed on Jan. 4.
Kaplan based that November caution partly on one of his favorite indicators company insider selling and buying, which he tracks via J3 Information Services Group.
In an interview with MarketWatch on Wednesday, he rattled off a list of worrying signals, such as aggressive selling by that group again, individual investors piling into the market, declarations that the bear market is over and the Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX VIX, +15.53%, skirting under 20 in recent days.
History also plays a big part in his worries about markets right now.
It is fascinating to see how closely the 1929-1932 and 2000-2002 bear markets paralleled each other, with almost exactly the same kinds of pullbacks and rebounds. I expect similar behavior for 2022-2025, he said. (See link to original chart)
Kaplan noted that it took eight years for the 1929 bear market to arrive, nearly 10 years for March 2000s and even longer for the bear market he sees as ongoing, given the bull market began in March 2009.
So what they all have in common is that these very long bull markets preceded the bear markets for so long, that people tended to forget how to invest in bear markets and what theyre about, he said.
The familiar bear market pattern through history has been a small drop to start that doesnt spread panic, then a soothing bounce, then a bigger drop and a bigger rebound, which again relaxes investors. But he said based on 1929, 1973 or 2000, the next stage of selling could bring dramatic losses, such as 40% for a fund like QQQ.
Kaplan is worried about the latest Fidelity quarterly retirement survey, which revealed investors clinging to hopes that the market will return to highs if they wait long enough. Challenging that, Kaplan pointed to another study showing that individuals who invested in the market in September 1929 were still 38% down by August 1982 in real terms, adjusted for inflation.
It kind of explodes the myth that you have to come out ahead if you just kind of hang in there when things are tough, he said.
Read: Most retirement savers are staying the course even if theyre totally stressed
So how to cope with another big drop. Repeating November advice, he recommends I-Bond or Series I savings bonds that can be bought directly from the government and are currently offering a return of just over 9%. U.S. Treasurys are also paying 3% to 3.5% right now, another way to go for the coming years, he said.
Read: This rule with a perfect record says the market hasnt bottomed, says Bank of Americas star analyst
Stocks DJIA, -1.91% SPX, -2.14% COMP, -2.55% are drifting south, following Wednesdays Fed-inspired losses, as bond yields TMUBMUSD10Y, 3.020% TMUBMUSD02Y, 3.301% drop, while the dollar DXY, -0.13% moves higher. Oil prices CL.1, -0.11% BRN00, +0.70% are also climbing, and bitcoin BTCUSD, +0.65% is hovering under $24,000.
Read: Why one economist fears the Japanese yen could be headed for a destabilizing downward spiral
Shares of Bed Bath & Beyond BBBY, -16.23%, which has been on a crazy meme ride lately, are slumping after GameStop GME, -5.45% Chairman Ryan Cohen disclosed plans to unload his hefty stake in the retailer months after buying it. The company said Thursday it has been working expeditiously for weeks to strengthen its balance sheet
Meanwhile, this 20-year-old made a massive profit on the stock, according to Securities and Exchange Commission filings.
Retailer Kohls KSS, -5.52% is tumbling after a profit miss and slashed outlook amid plans to cut inventory bulk
Cisco CSCO, -2.03% stock is climbing after the tech giants surprisingly upbeat earnings and revenue forecast.
Apple AAPL, -2.30% plans to unveil its latest iPhone 14 and smartwatches on Sept. 7, according to a new report.
End of an era. Stellantis STLA, -5.99% unit Dodge to discontinue two popular muscle cars as it tilts toward electric vehicles.
Jobless claims slipped 2,000 to 250,00 in the latest week, while the Philly Fed index rose to 6.2 from a predicted negative 5.0. Existing home sales and leading economic indicators are still to come, along with appearances by Kansas City Fed President Esther George, who will speak at 1:20 p.m. Eastern and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, at 1:45 p.m.
Big Oil is too optimistic a slow transition away from carbon will be enough to halt global warming
Two years after Covid infections, risks of psychotic disorders and dementia linger
Kremlin reportedly ousts head of its Black Sea Fleet following Crimea attacks
These were the top-searched tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m. Eastern Time:
Tourists behaving badly: Two arrested in Venice for cruising its waterways on motorized surfboards.
An extinct massive shark was faster, bigger and hungrier than scientists originally thought
Cambodia finds its lost ancient artifacts at the Met
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