Why a solar eclipse happens isnt exactly a mysterious concept. Astronomers have been studying the celestial events for centuries, and the science behind them is well-documented.
The science behind solar eclipse-chasing crowd sizes, on the other hand, can be as cloudy as a late August day on the Oregon Coast.
How many people are going to descend on Central Oregon to watch the moon block out the sun at 10:19 a.m. Aug. 21 has been the million-dollar question since local officials started preparing for the event more than a year ago, said Lysa Vattimo, who was hired by the city of Madras in 2016 to oversee local eclipse planning.
Its what everybody is dying to know, Vattimo said.
Predictions of how many visitors will show up vary, but the states Office of Emergency Management forecasts that about 1 million people will come to Oregon to watch the eclipse an estimate it based very broadly, OEM Emergency Planner Erik Rau said, on the number of campsites, hotel rooms, permitted events and an additional number as a percentage of the state population.
Its such a tricky number to try and get to because we really dont know, said OEM spokesperson Paula Negele.
Closer to home, local officials estimates fall closer to 200,000 total eclipse visitors for Jefferson, Crook and Deschutes counties.
But the truth is, Vattimo said, trying to figure out the size of the eclipse crowds is more akin to astrology than astronomy.
People dont really like the crystal-ball theory, but thats basically what it is looking into a crystal ball, she said.
Its up to each county in the state to figure out their respective eclipse crowd estimates as time permits, Rau wrote in an email to The Bulletin, noting that estimating those numbers is very challenging.
The few case studies available for regional eclipse tourism (Travel Salem researched an eclipse from Cairns, Australia in 2012) arent useful in providing specific numbers, but did confirm that large numbers of people will make an effort to travel in order to view an eclipse, he wrote in the email.
One way to do the math
In Central Oregon, a tri-county incident-management team was put together to oversee eclipse-related events, and it came up with a visitor number 204,000 that local officials can work with. Mike Ryan, the emergency services manager for Crook County who helps oversee the regional team, went over the formula the team managers used to reach its estimated visitor total.
I used to be able to recite it from memory, but all the numbers keep changing, he said, shuffling through papers to find the formula.
According to Ryan, the incident-management team starts with the number of potential visitors who could attend private, regional events based on event permit attendance caps.
Then it adds in the number of hotel rooms in Central Oregon multiplied by a factor of 2.3 to account for how many people will probably be staying in the hotel rooms, Ryan explained.
Lets say there are 30 rooms, and 10 have two people in the room; 10 have three, and 10 have four. Ryan said, trailing off. Basically it takes into consideration a couple or a couple plus 1 or 2 or 3 or 4.
Finally, Ryan said, throw in the total number of Bureau of Land Management and U.S. Forest Service campsites multiplied by a factor of four or eight BLM sites allow eight people to camp; USFS sites allow four as well as 10 percent of the tri-county population, 21,000.
Twenty-one thousand is the visiting friends and family or people that are renting a room or an RV from someone, he said, adding that the management team predicts another 100,000 or so people will drive to the area for one day only. So 204,000 is the total number of visitors. I usually clarify that by saying these numbers could be low or high.
Another method
Demonstrating the inexact science behind eclipse crowd estimates, Vattimo, whos in charge of predicting how many eclipse chasers will come to Madras, conducts her math a little differently from Ryan. Using a formula she came up with, Vattimo recently upped her original local forecast that around 75,000 people would come to Madras to watch the eclipse by more than 25,000 people. She reports her new estimate, about 102,000, with an air of cautious confidence. After all, she said, her formula was given the OK by the states Office of Emergency Management.
They told me thats probably a really good approach to use, probably, Vattimo said, referring to her formula, which she proceeded to break down.
According to Vattimo, she takes the number of hotel rooms in Madras, plus the total number of campsites she knows about at privately run events around town. Then she adds the number of owner-occupied single-family homes in Madras and the citys total population to the mix. She multiplies the total by four the approximate number of people she assumes will be visiting the citys residents.
Not everyone will have four people, but down the street someone will have 16, Vattimo said, explaining why she multiplies by four a factor Ryan said he considers maybe a little too high.
Finally, Vattimo said she adds in 10 percent of Deschutes Countys population to account for the number of people she thinks will be traveling north to escape Bends inferior solar eclipse viewing experience.
There you have it 102,000, she said. I just went with it; I had to have something to give the public safety and public works departments. I was tired of hearing all these big numbers thrown out there; it sounded like people were pulling numbers out of the sky.
Reporter: 541-617-7829,
View post:
Predicting eclipse crowds: More astrology than astronomy - Bend Bulletin
- Astronomy clubs want to help you enjoy the eclipse safely - NPR - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- You Can See a Rare, Bright Comet This Month. Will It Be Visible During the Solar Eclipse? - Smithsonian Magazine - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- Solar Eclipse Path Map Shows States Where Sun Will Be Blocked Out - Newsweek - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- Deep-space astronomy sensor peers into the heart of an atom - Space.com - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- Physics and Astronomy Colloquium - Professor Paul Cassak; Department of Physics and Astronomy, West Virginia ... - The University of Iowa - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- United Nations prioritizes discussion of Dark and Quiet Skies - Astrobites - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- The burning acid behind ant stings was spotted around two stars - WAPT Jackson - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- The oddities known as Centaurs may sprout their tales after jumping to new orbits - Astronomy Magazine - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- Pair of astronomy brothers to host eclipse viewing event - KAIT - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- How to watch the solar eclipse online - Astronomy Magazine - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- How does a black hole get to the center of a galaxy, and does the galaxy revolve around it? - Astronomy Magazine - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- The eclipse gives astronomy clubs an opportunity to shine - Voice Of Alexandria - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- AI 'for all': How access to new models is advancing academic research, from astronomy to education - Source - Microsoft - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- KU Department of Physics & Astronomy professor receives prestigious NSF award for black hole research - Salina Post - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- Inspect impressive Mare Imbrium Astronomy Now - Astronomy Now Online - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- The Sky This Week from March 15 to 22: A conjunction of Venus and Saturn - Astronomy Magazine - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- Pons-Brooks and M31 - Astronomy Magazine - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- The slightly weird mathematical coincidence behind an eclipse - Astronomy Magazine - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- APOD: 2024 March 17 NGC 7714: Starburst after Galaxy Collision - Astronomy Picture of the Day - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- How to Safely View the Eclipse National Radio Astronomy Observatory - National Radio Astronomy Observatory - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- NOIRLab releases jaw-dropping images, video of remnants from massive star explosion | Astronomy.com - Astronomy Magazine - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- JWST spots oceans' worth of water evaporating from a distant disk - Astronomy Magazine - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- Radiation is vaporizing a young star's disk in the Orion Nebula - Astronomy Magazine - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- APOD: 2024 March 12 A Galaxy Shaped Rocket Exhaust Spiral - Astronomy Picture of the Day - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- Best laptops for astronomers and astrophotographers in 2024 - Space.com - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- Why astronomers are worried about 2 major telescopes right now - Space.com - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- The People Behind Webb | Webb - WebbTelescope.org - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- X-ray image of universe reveals almost 1 million high-energy objects: 'These are mind-blowing numbers' - Space.com - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- Galaxy named 'Nube' is almost invisible, baffling astronomers Earth.com - Earth.com - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- Giant Star Seen 150 Days Before it Exploded as a Supernova - Universe Today - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- UH astronomer named to prominent national astronomical society | University of Hawaii System News - University of Hawaii - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- The Art of SeeingStates of Astronomy - Announcements - E-Flux - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- Pluto isn't really a planet, but it might be Arizona's official state planet - Arizona Mirror - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- Did You Know? Stars Near and Far Reveal Their Secrets to CSUN Scientists - California State University, Northridge - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- Top 10 space stories of 2023 - Astronomy Magazine - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- How we found the Milky Way's bar: This Week in Astronomy with Dave Eicher - Astronomy Magazine - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- The best telescope to use with a smartphone - Astronomy Magazine - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- JWST releases 19 awe-inspiring images of spiral galaxies - Astronomy Magazine - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- Learning Shines Brightly at SuperKnova National Radio Astronomy Observatory - National Radio Astronomy Observatory - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- The Crafoord Prize 2024 goes to three ERC grantees for their pioneering contributions to astronomy and mathematics ... - European Research Council - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- The Moon's south pole is likely not the safest place for manned missions - Astronomy Magazine - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- The moon could be perfect for cutting-edge telescopes but not if we don't protect it - Space.com - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- February Astronomy: Spot the Milky Way and the Zodiacal Light While the Skies Are Darkest - Coachella Valley Independent - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- You can stream an asteroid whizzing past Earth this weekend - Astronomy Magazine - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- Chinese Astronomy at the Royal Observatory | Royal Observatory | Things to do in London - Time Out London - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- Astronomers in Chile to scour universe with car-sized mega camera - - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- Dark Matter Might Help Explain How Supermassive Black Holes Can Merge - Universe Today - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- How far away is the sun? They went on a perilous journey to find out. - National Geographic - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- Scientists spotted an asteroid hours before it burned up over Germany - Astronomy Magazine - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- XRISM Unveils the Invisible: A New Era in X-Ray Astronomy - SciTechDaily - January 10th, 2024 [January 10th, 2024]
- New Astronomy Finding Uncovers the Mystery of Star Formation at the Edge of Galaxies - SBU News - Stony Brook News - January 10th, 2024 [January 10th, 2024]
- The Future Of Astronomy Lies In Artificial Intelligence - Forbes - January 10th, 2024 [January 10th, 2024]
- The 'Super Bowl of Astronomy' begins next week in New Orleans - Space.com - January 10th, 2024 [January 10th, 2024]
- Scientific American proposes policing the language of astronomy to make it beautiful and elegant, as well as ... - Why Evolution Is True - January 10th, 2024 [January 10th, 2024]
- 'Blob-like' home of farthest-known fast radio burst is collection of seven galaxies - Northwestern Now - January 10th, 2024 [January 10th, 2024]
- Astronomers revealed mysterious star formation by hearts of molecular clouds - Tech Explorist - January 10th, 2024 [January 10th, 2024]
- Spectroscopic sizing of interstellar icy grains with JWST - Nature.com - January 10th, 2024 [January 10th, 2024]
- Kip Thorne and the mind-bending science of Interstellar | Astronomy.com - Astronomy Magazine - January 10th, 2024 [January 10th, 2024]
- Here There Be DRAGNs National Radio Astronomy Observatory - National Radio Astronomy Observatory - January 10th, 2024 [January 10th, 2024]
- Unistellar's latest smart telescopes take the hassle out of backyard astronomy - Engadget - January 10th, 2024 [January 10th, 2024]
- 20 of the best places to view the 2024 total solar eclipse - Astronomy Magazine - January 10th, 2024 [January 10th, 2024]
- Northern Arizona astronomy: How old is our third generation sun? - Grand Canyon News - January 10th, 2024 [January 10th, 2024]
- Evidence builds that Kamo'oalewa is a chunk of the Moon accompanying Earth - Astronomy Magazine - January 10th, 2024 [January 10th, 2024]
- The Sky This Week from January 5 to 12: Visitors to the Scorpion - Astronomy Magazine - January 10th, 2024 [January 10th, 2024]
- AAS 243 NRAO Press Announcement - National Radio Astronomy Observatory - January 10th, 2024 [January 10th, 2024]
- Your guide to the sky in 2024 - Astronomy Magazine - January 10th, 2024 [January 10th, 2024]
- The best binoculars for astronomy in 2024 - Popular Science - January 10th, 2024 [January 10th, 2024]
- Are we visible to alien astronomers? This study makes the case - Astronomy Magazine - January 10th, 2024 [January 10th, 2024]
- Mystery of Star Formation Revealed by Hearts of Molecular Clouds - National Radio Astronomy Observatory - January 10th, 2024 [January 10th, 2024]
- Astronomers Solve the Mystery of Giant Radio Circles - AZoQuantum - January 10th, 2024 [January 10th, 2024]
- Early Evolution of Planetary Disk Structures Seen for the First Time - National Radio Astronomy Observatory - January 10th, 2024 [January 10th, 2024]
- XRISM's Revolutionary Insights into X-Ray Astronomy - AZoQuantum - January 10th, 2024 [January 10th, 2024]
- Vatican's chief astronomer talks about stars, beauty, truth - Aleteia - January 10th, 2024 [January 10th, 2024]
- Explore the cosmos in EAC Payson Campus astronomy workshops - Payson Roundup - January 10th, 2024 [January 10th, 2024]
- Neptune is more of a greenish blue than is commonly depicted - NPR - January 10th, 2024 [January 10th, 2024]
- First Yale Gravitational Wave Symposium sparks research innovation | Department of Physics - Yale University - January 10th, 2024 [January 10th, 2024]
- The best expensive telescopes for those ready to splurge - Astronomy Magazine - January 10th, 2024 [January 10th, 2024]
- Dinosaurs and a touch of astronomy | Education | paysonroundup.com - Payson Roundup - January 10th, 2024 [January 10th, 2024]
- Astronomical Illusions: New Images Reveal What Neptune and Uranus Really Look Like - SciTechDaily - January 10th, 2024 [January 10th, 2024]
- Book Review: Things That Go Bump in the Universe, by C. Rene James - The New York Times - December 16th, 2023 [December 16th, 2023]