The daily average of new coronavirus cases across a large swath of the Baton Rouge area fell by two-thirds in the 1 months since Gov. John Bel Edwards imposed a statewide mask mandate and closed bars.
Susan Hassig, a Tulane University epidemiologist, said that means if cases do bump back up after the Labor Day break and after other loosening of restrictions, including the continued growth of in-person classes, any new growth in cases will begin from a higher starting point than in March.
She said hospital officials in the Baton Rouge area remain "very, very worried" about their ability to handle new cases because of tight capacity.
"It is real, and the ramifications of people easing up or kicking back on guidance or mandates is terrifying to them," Hassig said Friday.
Edwards said Friday that he was hopeful that cases will have declined enough statewide that he can announce later this week that social distancing restrictions can be loosened from Phase 2 to Phase 3. The governor has faced criticism from business groups and some conservative leaders that he has waited too long to reopen the state further and ease the financial pain of an economy restrained by public health measures.
Trends for rolling case averages and percent positivity have continued to move more consistently downward statewide than for the portion of the Baton Rouge area in state Health Department's Region 2 in recent weeks, state dashboard data show.
State officials and some health experts said the sharp and consistent drop in new cases between mid-July and mid-August as calculated on a rolling, seven-day average had showed the mask and bar measures were, to some degree, strongly correlated with the drop in cases. A delayed but apparent effect on reduced hospitalizations statewide only furthered that conclusion, some experts added.
"It's clear that after the governor put the mask mandate in place that we began to see a decline in cases, along with decreases in hospitalizations and COVID-like illnesses," Kevin Litten, a state department of health spokesman, said in late August. "It generally takes about a week if not two to begin seeing the impact of events or decisions on COVID-19 indicators, but it can be seen in the dashboard graphs."
Even then, though, some officials said late last month that they remained worried about underlying trends in the Baton Rouge area, including lingering high percent positivity, or the rate of positive cases for a given batch of tests. The measure is seen as one possible signal of the depth of infection in the community and a marker of testing strength.
"Masks have had a tremendous effect, and we're very thankful for our patients and for the community that the mask mandate occurred, but it hasn't had enough of an effect, and I remain very concerned about Region 2's percent positivity," Dr. Catherine O'Nealsaid in late August.
O'Neal is an infectious disease expert and chief medical officer at Our Lady of the Lake Regional Medical Center in Baton Rouge.
Since her comments, Region 2's overall positivity rate continued to go up to around 13.4% through Aug. 28, as testing has slowed down significantly from highs in July during a federal effort to boost testing. Hurricane Laura has also disrupted some testing.
The Region 2 area encompasses Ascension, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Iberville, Pointe Coupee, West Baton Rouge and West Feliciana parishes.
But a parish-by-parish analysis within Region 2 and across the rest of the Baton Rouge area offers a more mixed picture of percent positivity.
East Baton Rouge, Ascension, Livingston and other parishes have seen their positivity rates drop in recent weeks, while some outlying parishes with large state-run facilities where cases have sharply increased, including East and West Feliciana parishes, have seen their positivity rise.
At the same time, bed and intensive care unit space in the BatonRouge region remains tight, state data show, though some of that may be attributed to Hurricane Laura's devastation of Lake Charles hospitals.
Since those conclusions about the mask mandates were reached in late August, the steady fall in cases has stalled out or even rebounded a bit in the Baton Rouge area, according to state data and an Advocate analysis.
During the same period, schools reopened, some with at least a hybrid of virtual and in-person classes.
East Baton Rouge, Livingston and Ascension Parishes have had students and staff get infected, forcing quarantines, though the numbers remain tiny relative to the size of the systems.
Ascension, for example, has had 46 positive cases since mid-July in a system of more than 23,000 students and 3,000 employees, but those cases have led to quarantines among some students and staff at 20 different schools. Only 15 cases remain active, a system spokeswoman said.
More than 150 students and staff in Livingston public schools were quarantined two weeks ago but that number has dropped significantly since then.
East Baton Rouge Parish schools have had a handful of cases but is planning to start in-person classes among younger students later this month. LSU has also had recent batches of positive cases.
"The educational process, especially in when it involves in-person teaching and on campus residency and everything else, is going to bring people into contact with each other in ways that they haven't been for a very long time," Hassig said. "And so it would be totally expected that cases would change and, likely, potentially, not in the way we would want them to go."
Read more:
Drop in Baton Rouge-area cases after mask mandate, bar closures may have stalled - The Advocate
- Ascension Public Schools to hold public forums on school bond renewal election - WAFB - April 8th, 2024 [April 8th, 2024]
- Eran Hersh and Kasango Unite for Tribal House Anthem, "Ascension" - EDM.com - April 8th, 2024 [April 8th, 2024]
- Honkai Star Rail Jingliu best build, Ascension materials, Traces, and Light Cone - Eurogamer.net - April 8th, 2024 [April 8th, 2024]
- Ascension Sacred Heart Bay fights hypertension with new procedure - The News Herald - April 8th, 2024 [April 8th, 2024]
- Honkai Star Rail Aventurine materials, kit, and Eidolons - Eurogamer.net - April 8th, 2024 [April 8th, 2024]
- Live Oak victorious over East Ascension | Sports | livingstonparishnews.com - The Livingston Parish News - April 8th, 2024 [April 8th, 2024]
- Honkai: Star Rail Leaks Harmony Trailblazer Ascension and Trace Materials - GameRant - April 8th, 2024 [April 8th, 2024]
- Genshin Impact Neuvillette materials, kit, and Constellations - Eurogamer.net - April 8th, 2024 [April 8th, 2024]
- While Ascension shelter closes for quarantine, non-profit group taking in additional cats - WBRZ - April 8th, 2024 [April 8th, 2024]
- Joliet nurses to strike after turning down Ascension Healthcare's 'best and final' offer - Yahoo News - February 7th, 2024 [February 7th, 2024]
- Denham Springs victorious over East Ascension | Sports | livingstonparishnews.com - The Livingston Parish News - February 7th, 2024 [February 7th, 2024]
- Genshin Impact Xianyun best build, Talent and Ascension materials, weapon, and team - Eurogamer.net - February 7th, 2024 [February 7th, 2024]
- Joliet Nurses to Strike Protesting Illegal Implementation of Ascension Offer - The Times Weekly - February 7th, 2024 [February 7th, 2024]
- Ascension Michigan CEO discusses faith in health care at UTG at Work roundtable - Detroit Catholic - January 27th, 2024 [January 27th, 2024]
- Ascension Parish deputies arrest man accused of stealing cash, guns from cars - Yahoo! Voices - January 27th, 2024 [January 27th, 2024]
- After 455 days in shelter, Ascension pup gets forever home amid freezing temps - WAFB - January 27th, 2024 [January 27th, 2024]
- Ascension Community Theatre to put on 110th show with A Raisin in the Sun - BRProud.com - January 27th, 2024 [January 27th, 2024]
- Positive takeaways for the Cowboys? CeeDee Lambs ascension, DaRon Blands meteoric rise - The Athletic - January 27th, 2024 [January 27th, 2024]
- When, where Atomic Burger will open in Ascension Parish - BRProud.com - January 27th, 2024 [January 27th, 2024]
- Here is a look inside the new West Ascension Early Learning Center in Donaldsonville - Weekly Citizen - January 27th, 2024 [January 27th, 2024]
- What's going on in Ascension Parish? Winter 2024 events calendar for Gonzales, Donaldsonville, Prairieville, Sorrento ... - Weekly Citizen - January 27th, 2024 [January 27th, 2024]
- Several pets find homes following freezing weather in Ascension Parish - Weekly Citizen - January 27th, 2024 [January 27th, 2024]
- Krewe of Ascension Mambo's 2024 Mardi Gras parade set for Feb. 3 in Gonzales - Weekly Citizen - January 27th, 2024 [January 27th, 2024]
- Ascension Parish man accused of assaulting law enforcement officers during Jan. 6: U.S. attorney report - Weekly Citizen - January 27th, 2024 [January 27th, 2024]
- Ascension Parish, LA High School Girls Basketball Schedule, Streaming Live Today - January 26 - KSLA - January 27th, 2024 [January 27th, 2024]
- Winey named as supervisor of early childhood education in Ascension Parish - The Advocate - January 27th, 2024 [January 27th, 2024]
- Firefighters battle blaze at Donaldsonville building | Ascension | theadvocate.com - The Advocate - January 27th, 2024 [January 27th, 2024]
- Ascension Parish to receive $2.2 million in FEMA funding for Hurricane Ida debris removal - Weekly Citizen - January 27th, 2024 [January 27th, 2024]
- Ascension Saint Thomas Rutherford Society Gala Honoring 2024 Award Winners - Rutherford Source - January 27th, 2024 [January 27th, 2024]
- Genvid denies using AI to write Silent Hill: Ascension - GamesIndustry.biz - November 30th, 2023 [November 30th, 2023]
- Uptick in COVID and flu prompts universal masking at Ascension Via Christi - News Radio KMAN - November 30th, 2023 [November 30th, 2023]
- Silent Hill: Ascension's terrible Jam Man (who likes to make jams) was not written by AI, says Genvid CEO: 'every word ... - PC Gamer - November 30th, 2023 [November 30th, 2023]
- Silent Hill Ascension co-creator responds to claims it's written by an AI - PCGamesN - November 30th, 2023 [November 30th, 2023]
- Ascension Borgess Lee Foundation hosts annual Tree of Love ... - Leader Publications - November 30th, 2023 [November 30th, 2023]
- Ascension St. John joins Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Okla.'s ... - Tulsa World - November 30th, 2023 [November 30th, 2023]
- Ascension St. Vincent takes active role with Habitat for Humanity ... - Catholic Diocese of Evansville - November 30th, 2023 [November 30th, 2023]
- Ascension's science chief on the mission-driven work to increase ... - Becker's Hospital Review - November 30th, 2023 [November 30th, 2023]
- Ascension St. Vincent sleep apnea patient 'inspired' after life-saving ... - WRTV Indianapolis - November 30th, 2023 [November 30th, 2023]
- Positive HCAHPS scores again for St. Vincent's Chilton - The ... - Clanton Advertiser - November 30th, 2023 [November 30th, 2023]
- Where does DaRon Blands rapid ascension put him in Defensive Player of the Year discourse? - The Athletic - November 30th, 2023 [November 30th, 2023]
- Silent Hill Ascension Could Be A Bad Sign For The Future Of Gaming - CBR - Comic Book Resources - November 30th, 2023 [November 30th, 2023]
- VIRAL-WORTHY | The 'ascension story' of Stephen Sanchez | Reine ... - BusinessMirror - November 30th, 2023 [November 30th, 2023]
- Construction to begin on long-term project to prevent storm surge ... - KTBS - May 26th, 2023 [May 26th, 2023]
- How To Reach Cere's Base In Star Wars Jedi: Survivor - TheGamer - May 26th, 2023 [May 26th, 2023]
- Knife-wielding man arrested after threatening Ascension Borgess staff - WWMT-TV - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Pat McAfees Ascension to ESPN Superstardom Is a Sign of the Times - The Ringer - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Online threat made against East Ascension High prompts police investigation - WBRZ - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Is Thursday a holy day of obligation? It depends on where you live - Catholic News Agency - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Inaugural VCT Ascension Pacific 2023 is heading to Thailand - ONE Esports - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Honkai: Star Rail Jing Yuan Ascension and Trace Materials - GameRant - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- WSU, Ascension announce partnership to bolster health care ... - The Derby Informer - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Wichita State and Ascension Via Christi partnership works to alleviate nursing shortage - KSN-TV - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Our Human Nature Attains Heaven in the Ascension - Catholic Exchange - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Finding the balance within educational excellence prepares Ascension Episcopal seniors to master valuable life skills - The Advocate - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Ascension Parish Council's Aaron Lawler will not run for re-election - Weekly Citizen - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Jesus Is Still With Us Even After His Ascension To Heaven - CatholicPhilly.com - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Ascension, Assumption & St. James guilty pleas 5/8 to 5/12 - L ... - L'Observateur - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Yae Miko ascension materials and where to find them - The Sportsrush - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Repainted mural portrays ascension of Jesus at First Evangelical ... - TribLIVE - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Around Ascension for May 17, 2023 | Ascension | theadvocate.com - The Advocate - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Gospel in Art: The Ascension of Our Lord | ICN - Independent Catholic News - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Stories of Power from the Vulnerable People - America: The Jesuit Review - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- SPRING FOOTBALL | Beard pleased with Yellow Jackets' work ... - The Livingston Parish News - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Highs of 30C expected in Germany over Ascension Day weekend - IamExpat in Germany - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- ACHS baseball denied 4th state championship in D4 finals - The Advocate - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Why history still matters in heaven - America: The Jesuit Review - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- 7th Sunday of Easter (Sunday after Ascension Day) - Church Times - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- New Orleans Opera Association presents Jobs Off the Stage career ... - Weekly Citizen - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Our Lady of the Lake announces Dr. Chris Trevino as VP, Physician ... - Weekly Citizen - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Ascension Thursday: Camping rules in place ahead of Fatima ... - RTL Today - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- TWO ARRESTED IN CONNECTION WITH PRAIRIEVILLE HOUSE ... - L'Observateur - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- They Watch Us From The Moon - Cosmic Chronicles: Act 1, The ... - All About The Rock - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Book Review: Ascension, by Nicholas Binge - The New York Times - April 25th, 2023 [April 25th, 2023]
- A new mascot is storming into Ascension Parish. Meet the Prairieville High Hurricanes - The Advocate - April 25th, 2023 [April 25th, 2023]
- Immortal Ascension #1 in Fairsquare's July 2023 Solicits - Bleeding Cool News - April 25th, 2023 [April 25th, 2023]
- Dr Devon Hoover Obituary: Ascension Michigan Neurosurgeon Shot To Death - PKBnews.in - April 25th, 2023 [April 25th, 2023]
- Nurses spotlight hypocrisy of Ascension at gala event - National Nurses United - April 25th, 2023 [April 25th, 2023]
- Ascension Public Schools honors Support Personnel of the Year for ... - Weekly Citizen - April 25th, 2023 [April 25th, 2023]
- Around Ascension for April 26, 2023 - The Advocate - April 25th, 2023 [April 25th, 2023]
- At the library. Ascension Library offers variety of programming for ... - The Advocate - April 25th, 2023 [April 25th, 2023]