It isnt getting colder in Hell just yet, but the Democratic National Committee and its Rules and By-laws Committee does seem to be getting warmer in its efforts to create a new primary calendar for selecting delegates to its 2024 National Convention. As everyone knows, the early states are critical to the presidential nomination system. And, according to a draft resolution circulating before the next Rules Committee meeting, the DNC looks like it will seriously consider changing the traditional opening sequence of the nomination system.
As things stand right now, the first state to hold a delegate selection process in 2024 would be Iowa, whose 80% white electorate hasnt voted for a Democratic presidential candidate in a decade. As Gilberto Hinojosa, chairman of the Texas Democratic Party said of the current primary calendar, as it was getting underway in Iowa in 2020, It is bizarre. It makes absolutely no sense except for tradition, and sometimes tradition doesnt get us anywhere. The second state would be New Hampshire, which may have more of a historical and legal claim to be first in the nation but whose electorate is even whiter, 90%, than Iowas. At least it can claim a greater tendency to vote Democratic in statewide contests. Most importantly, neither state voted for Joe Bidens candidacy in 2020, thus depriving them of the ability to use their loyalty to the incumbent President to block this latest effort to restructure the calendar as has happened so often in the past.
Under the committees proposal, states wishing to help kick start the 2024 campaign would have to apply to the DNCs Rules and By-laws committee, which would base their final decision on which states get to go early from among those who:
Iowa loses on all three counts; New Hampshire is on shakier grounds but could take a simple step to solidify their claim.
Since the party will want to get an early reading on the preferences of all four regions in the country, if the party passes over Iowa, their biggest decision will be on which Midwest state to choose to take Iowas place on the calendar. The most likely choice, given the criteria, would be Michigan, whose attempt to go early in 2008 resulted in each of the delegates selected in the primary held outside the window of the partys primary calendar being given only a half of a vote at the Denver convention that nominated Barack Obama. Despite that punishment and Hilary Clintons primary victory in Michigan, the former President carried Michigan in the general election by over 800,000 votes, but it has become much more competitive lately. That, along with its diversity and strong labor presence will allow Michigan Democrats to make a strong case that they are the Midwest state that best meets the DNCs proposed criteria of diversity and general election competitiveness.
The only other real choice facing the DNC, should it adopt the co-chairs proposal, is which eastern state to choose to go early, if not New Hampshire. South Carolina and its powerful spokesperson, Congressman James Clyburn, will successfully argue for their continued inclusion as the early southern state, not just because of the states large percentage of African American voters but, more quietly, their key role in President Bidens nomination. Nevada has already taken steps to change their early caucus to a primary. Even without the recently departed Senator Harry Reid around to argue their case, the strong union and Latino presence in this western region states electorate makes them almost a shoo in for an early spot. That leaves the question of New Hampshires early status on the table.
As was argued back in the 1980s when I chaired the partys rules commission, one of the reasons for having a few states go early is the opportunity it provides for a relatively unknown candidate, such as Jimmy Carter, to campaign on a smaller budget until they become better known. New Hampshires traditional primary style of campaigning in small gatherings in small towns may be more myth than reality, but the stories the national press corps files every day during their primary does allow candidates to become better known nationally. However, their media market, which is mostly driven by Boston television, is relatively expensive for the size of their electorate.
This potential weakness is, however, not a problem if the competing eastern state is New Jersey, which it appears to be at this stage of the deliberation. To reach New Jersey voters, candidates have to buy time on New York media, the most expensive market in the country. Add to that New Jerseys lack of any history of effective one on one campaigning for statewide office and New Hampshire still looks like it will survive this new process. There is, however, one thing New Hampshire can do to assure their first in the nation status, at least for 2024.
To deal with the states lack of diversity, the party should permit only registered Democrats to vote in its primary in 2024, abandoning their tradition of allowing voters from one party to vote in the other partys contest. The courts have given the Democratic party the authority to enforce such a rule, in a case that tested that very provision (Rule 20B) in the rules written by what is generally known as the Winograd Commission for the 1980 nominating process. (Yes, I was the Chair of that Commission and, full disclosure, also the Chair of the Michigan Democratic Party.) The policy argument in favor of enacting such a rule is easily made by citing the potential for mischief if Trump voters are given a chance to vote against President Biden in the primary. But in terms of the DNCs proposed criteria for being an early state, such a Democrats only electorate would be more proportionally diverse and give greater weight to the states burgeoning suburban vote that will be so crucial for victory in the general election. If the New Hampshire Democratic party enacts such a provision as part of their application to the DNC, their already good chances to remain first in the nation, increase to almost a certainty.
As I wrote for Brookings almost two years ago, although no set of rules can guarantee the selection of a presidential nominee who is prepared to meet the challenges the country now faces, by increasing the participation of as many Democrats as possible in a process that better reflects the makeup of todays Democratic coalition, the party can improve the odds that its next nominee will win the prize national politicians dream about. Lets hope for the sake of our American democracy the party surprises the pundits and does the right thing this time.
See original here:
Democrats have a chance to get their rules right for 2024 - Brookings Institution
- Sen. Chris Murphy urges Democrats to follow Tom Suozzi and go on the offensive on the border - NBC News - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- New Mexico's Democrat-led House rejects proposal for paid family and medical leave - The Seattle Times - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- Democrats see 2024 blueprint in N.Y. election that centered on immigration - The Washington Post - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- Democrats cheer New York win as good omen for November. But is it enough to calm anxiety over Biden? - The Associated Press - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- Leaning Into Migrant Woes, Suozzi Paves Election-Year Path for Democrats - The New York Times - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- New York Special Election Live Results: Tom Suozzi Wins George Santos's Seat - The New York Times - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- Democrats win another special election, and 4 more takeaways from New York's House race - ABC News - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- NY Special Election Winner Tom Suozzi to Fill Santos Seat - Bloomberg - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- Democrat Suozzi wins special election to replace Santos in New York - NPR - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- New House lines in New York would boost 2 Democrats and a Republican - POLITICO - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- Democrats win back George Santos seat in hotly contested election - POLITICO - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- Democrats and Republicans hold Black History Month celebrations with an eye on November's election - The Associated Press - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- NY-03 Special: Four Takeaways from Suozzi and Democrats' Decisive Win - The Cook Political Report - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- New York special election results: The Democrats flipped George Santos' old seat. But here's the real story. - Slate - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- West Virginia bill defining gender is transphobic and 'political rubbish,' Democrats say - The Associated Press - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- Biden isn't leaving the 2024 race, but how would Democrats pick a nominee if he did? - ABC News - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- Proposed TikTok ban dies in Virginias Democratic-controlled House - The Hill - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- Opinion | Tom Suozzi Makes the Democrats Look Good for a New York Minute - The New York Times - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- Tom Suozzi buoyed by higher Democratic turnout, decline in GOP voting - Newsday - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- We asked young Black voters about Biden and the Democrats. Here's what we learned - NPR - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- New York Special Election: Tom Suozzi Wins House Seat Vacated by George Santos - The New York Times - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- Democrat Tom Suozzi to replace republican George Santos in U.S. House of Representatives - 13newsnow.com WVEC - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- Who is Tom Suozzi, Democrat in New York's special election - The Washington Post - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- Democrat Tom Suozzi wins special election to fill George Santos's House seat. Here's why it matters beyond New York. - Yahoo News - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- Democrat Wins Special Election for George Santos' House Seat Mother Jones - Mother Jones - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- Not an Ordinary Special Election, and Yet a Typical Result - The New York Times - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- Trump slams Democrat Nikki Haley on home turf ahead of South Carolina primary: Shes finished - Washington Examiner - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- Senate Democrat calls GOP hostage-taking in debt ceiling deal making dangerous: This cannot be the norm - The Hill - May 30th, 2023 [May 30th, 2023]
- Scoop: Dems told to say debt ceiling bill rejects GOP's "extreme demands" - Axios - May 30th, 2023 [May 30th, 2023]
- Debt Ceiling Is First Big Test for Hakeem Jeffries, the Top House Democrat - The New York Times - May 30th, 2023 [May 30th, 2023]
- Does the debt deal have enough GOP support? This Democratic senator says he's worried. - POLITICO - May 30th, 2023 [May 30th, 2023]
- Delbert the Democrat and his friends in the liberal media - leader-call.com - May 30th, 2023 [May 30th, 2023]
- Why I believe RFK Jr. will be the 2024 Democratic nominee - The Hill - May 30th, 2023 [May 30th, 2023]
- Republican blitz on LGBTQ issues exposes fractures among Texas ... - The Texas Tribune - May 30th, 2023 [May 30th, 2023]
- Texas Passes Bills Targeting Elections in Democratic Stronghold - The New York Times - May 30th, 2023 [May 30th, 2023]
- The Rise of Religious 'Nones' Won't Save Democrats - New York Magazine - May 30th, 2023 [May 30th, 2023]
- Democrats trade insults over bill at committee meeting - Spectrum News NY1 - May 30th, 2023 [May 30th, 2023]
- Kentucky Democrat Who Lost Bid to Unseat McConnell Fined $10K ... - Heritage.org - May 30th, 2023 [May 30th, 2023]
- Mississippi Democrats improperly excluded candidate for governor ... - The Associated Press - May 30th, 2023 [May 30th, 2023]
- Asian voters in the U.S. tend to be Democratic, but Vietnamese ... - Pew Research Center - May 30th, 2023 [May 30th, 2023]
- Gilbert, Mesa lawmakers unimpressed with Democrat's reason for ... - Daily Independent - May 30th, 2023 [May 30th, 2023]
- Former Republican and Democratic Governors from Alabama ... - Death Penalty Information Center - May 30th, 2023 [May 30th, 2023]
- 3 Tennessee Democrats face removal from office in Thursday vote after gun control protest on state House floor - CNN - April 6th, 2023 [April 6th, 2023]
- Democrat or Republican: The Official Differences | Merriam-Webster - March 31st, 2023 [March 31st, 2023]
- Truck driver who upset top N.J. Democrat in 2021 faces GOP primary challenge in big election year - NJ.com - March 31st, 2023 [March 31st, 2023]
- A top Democrats radical plan to deal with Trumps worst judge and protect abortion rights - Vox.com - February 20th, 2023 [February 20th, 2023]
- About the Democratic Party - Democrats - February 7th, 2023 [February 7th, 2023]
- Democratic Party (United States) - Simple English Wikipedia, the free ... - February 2nd, 2023 [February 2nd, 2023]
- Democrat NYC Mayor Adams calls on federal government to play more proactive role to secure border - Fox News - January 17th, 2023 [January 17th, 2023]
- Democratic Rep. Jamie Raskin announces he has 'serious but curable form of cancer' - CNN - December 28th, 2022 [December 28th, 2022]
- Sen. Sinema's switch to Independent will not impact Democrats' control of the chamber, representatives say - CNBC - December 12th, 2022 [December 12th, 2022]
- 'People are fed up': As NC Democrats reflect on election missteps, a party shake-up is underway - WRAL News - December 12th, 2022 [December 12th, 2022]
- What is a Democrat? (with pictures) - Historical Index - November 23rd, 2022 [November 23rd, 2022]
- This is the late message some Democrats believe could make a difference in close elections - CNN - November 1st, 2022 [November 1st, 2022]
- Dylan Roberts in his words: The Democrat running for a seat in Senate District 8 promises to focus on living affordability, the environment and rural... - October 25th, 2022 [October 25th, 2022]
- POLITICO Playbook: Where Democrats can find some good news - POLITICO - POLITICO - October 21st, 2022 [October 21st, 2022]
- Kill the babies to curb inflation? Democrats are the real abortion extremists - Washington Examiner - October 21st, 2022 [October 21st, 2022]
- The vote to subpoena Trump shows Democrats have found their fighting spirit - The Guardian US - October 15th, 2022 [October 15th, 2022]
- Cameron Smith: Is the worst Republican better than the best Democrat? - AL.com - October 15th, 2022 [October 15th, 2022]
- Inflation report is bad news for Democrats - The Hill - October 15th, 2022 [October 15th, 2022]
- Democrats try to break through on drug pricing message - The Hill - October 15th, 2022 [October 15th, 2022]
- Meet the Black Republican whos aiming to flip a Democratic held House seat in heavily blue Connecticut - Yahoo News - October 15th, 2022 [October 15th, 2022]
- Democrats Worry They're Being Overshadowed in Arizona's Governor Race - Yahoo News - October 15th, 2022 [October 15th, 2022]
- Democrats suggest shifting weapons from Saudi Arabia to Ukraine - The Guardian US - October 15th, 2022 [October 15th, 2022]
- WATCH: Voters react to Nancy Pelosi claiming Democrats will win midterm elections without Trump on the ballot - Fox News - October 15th, 2022 [October 15th, 2022]
- Former presidential candidate Tulsi Gabbard says she is leaving the Democratic Party - NPR - October 13th, 2022 [October 13th, 2022]
- Oregon could elect a non-Democrat governor for the first time in 40 years - Statesman Journal - October 13th, 2022 [October 13th, 2022]
- 'The Great Realignment': Democrats Leave Party in Droves, and What It Could Mean for GOP in November - CBN.com - October 13th, 2022 [October 13th, 2022]
- Texas Democrat uses edited photo of GOP opponent in campaign ad that makes her appear more aggressive - Washington Examiner - October 13th, 2022 [October 13th, 2022]
- This Democrat Living On Nearly $400,000 Is Frustrated By Inflation - Washington Free Beacon - October 13th, 2022 [October 13th, 2022]
- Why Kansass Democratic Governor Isnt Talking About Abortion But Her GOP Opponent Is - FiveThirtyEight - October 13th, 2022 [October 13th, 2022]
- Can Democrats Win 52 Senate Seats And Kill The Filibuster? - FiveThirtyEight - October 13th, 2022 [October 13th, 2022]
- Ricky Jones: Black men are not the problem for Stacey Abrams and Democrats - Courier Journal - October 13th, 2022 [October 13th, 2022]
- How Democrats are trying to counter a wave of GOP attacks on crime - POLITICO - September 20th, 2022 [September 20th, 2022]
- Why Democrats' midterm optimism could be misguided - The Hill - September 20th, 2022 [September 20th, 2022]
- Will The Polls Overestimate Democrats Again? - FiveThirtyEight - September 20th, 2022 [September 20th, 2022]
- Lauren Boebert's Democratic opponent forgot he was previously registered as a Democrat - Washington Examiner - September 20th, 2022 [September 20th, 2022]
- Democrats' No. 1 fall goal: Try not to 'poke the bear' - POLITICO - September 20th, 2022 [September 20th, 2022]
- Is This When Democrats Finally Learn How to Message? - The New Republic - September 20th, 2022 [September 20th, 2022]
- Meet the Democrat on a Six-Figure Income Who Cant Afford To Buy Her Kids Shoes - Washington Free Beacon - September 20th, 2022 [September 20th, 2022]