Monthly Archives: June 2022

Labour's Tinetti is vying for the Tauranga seat.

OPINION:

It pays not to over-interpret byelection results, but when it comes to the Tauranga byelection both National and Labour should bear something in mind.

Labour should not too easily dismiss the result as a foregone conclusion and National should not get too cocky about its convincing victory.

Labour's caution should be in case Tauranga proves to be something of a bellwether result at least for other provincial seats.

All Labour's candidate Jan Tinetti could muster by way of solace after getting about 25 per cent of the byelection votes was to say she had done no worse than in 2017. In 2017, Tinetti was a first-time candidate and Labour was rising from a dismal poll base.

If the byelection result is mirrored in the general election result, then Labour has lost all of the advantage it got in the 2020 election and in the Tauranga byelection it seemed happy to let it go without even a fight.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern should perhaps be ruing her decision not to make just a little bit more effort in the Tauranga byelection and writing it off as a lost cause so thoroughly from the very beginning.

National was always going to win, the PM was right in that. But not putting in at least a token effort to get the Labour vote out and try to hold on to some of the 2020 vote in that byelection may have been a mistake, with a general election little more than a year away.

Ardern did not visit the campaign at all, partly by circumstance but also by design: she was out of action with Covid-19 and then on the US and Australia trips.

She had a visit scheduled in the last week but was sick that day. On byelection day she was in Queenstown.

The by design element was so she was not associated with a stonking loss - and to try to starve it of attention.

In a bid to distance herself from the loss, Ardern had written off Labour's chances from day one - not just downplayed them but written them off completely.

It left Jan Tinetti fighting alone. It also sent an appalling message to the people of Tauranga - and by extension the people of other provinces. To Labour voters it sent the message not to bother voting. To the rest it sent the message that Labour had given up holding on to its 2020 haul.

In 2020 Labour came close to taking the Tauranga seat Simon Bridges' majority shrank to 1800 votes and Labour beat National in the party vote.

It did take a number of other supposedly safe National provincial seats.

At the time the PM acknowledged many of those voters may not have normally voted for Labour - and pledged to govern for all of them. Success in 2023 will depend on Labour at least holding some of them.

The Tauranga byelection would have been a way of trying to hold up that vote.

As it was, Act put up more of a fight in Tauranga than Labour did and it had even less chance of winning.

The reason Act leader David Seymour went there time and again was to take out insurance for 2023 when the same voters will also be casting party votes.

Show the voters you're there and listening through the term and it just might help in 2023. Act's candidate Cameron Luxton pulled in 10 per cent of the vote, higher than in 2017 or 2020, despite National's vote also rising.

As for National, the votes for Sam Uffindell were as much votes for leader Christopher Luxon and renewed hope in the party among its base as for Uffindell himself. Luxon needed a good win there by way of concrete evidence that the party was back.

However, National should not get too cocky because there is little doubt Uffindell's result was inflated by a low turnout on the left.

The Green Party did not stand a candidate at all. Labour barely raised a finger to campaign. Once Ardern had declared the contest over before it began, its voters had very little incentive to go out and tick a box.

The 2015 Northland byelection showed National the perils of taking a win in a seat for granted.

Then prime minister John Key announced that NZ First's Winston Peters did not have a snowball's chance in hell of winning it. Northland may well be the winterless North, but it was clearly a bitterly cold day in hell and Peters won.

Tauranga could well be a lesson to Labour that it also pays not to look as if you are taking a loss in a seat for granted.

See the original post here:

Claire Trevett: PM Jacinda Ardern may regret writing off the Tauranga byelection as a lost cause - New Zealand Herald

The disastrous situation in New Zealands hospitals continues to worsen, with ongoing deaths from COVID-19, growing hospitalisations for influenza and other winter illnesses, and a severe staffing shortage.

Yesterday, another 17 people died with COVID, including a child under 10 years of age. A total of 362 people were in hospital with the virus.

Altogether, the Ministry of Health has recorded 1,432 COVID-related deaths. All but 59 of these occurred in 2022, during the highly infectious Omicron wave, and as a direct result of the Labour Party-led governments criminal decision last October to end its zero COVID policy.

The government put the demands of big business for a return to work ahead of protecting the health and lives of the population. No lockdowns have been implemented this year, the border has fully reopened, vaccine mandates have been scrapped, and schools and nonessential businesses are open.

According to the Worldometer website, New Zealand recorded 14 deaths per million people in the last seven days. This is the sixth-highest rate in the world, surpassed only by Taiwan, Portugal and three Caribbean island countries.

On June 20, Radio NZs Corin Dann asked Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern whether she was considering reintroducing measures such as mandatory masks in schools, given the pressures on ED [hospital emergency departments], the ongoing deaths, the ongoing hospitalisations.

In response, Ardern defended the present settings, which amount to a policy of mass infection. She noted that the government had eased public health restrictions when the COVID hospitalisation rate was even higher than it is now. She added that, in some hospitals, flu is now a greater cause of respiratory hospitalisation than COVID-19.

Middlemore Hospital in South Auckland is reportedly seeing a fourfold increase in the number of influenza patients compared with 2019 and previous years. Influenza, however, can be controlled with the same measures used to stop COVID-19. In 2020 and 2021, thanks to New Zealands elimination strategy, the flu virus practically disappeared.

The government is seeking to normalise the crisis in public hospitals. Health minister Andrew Little told Radio NZ yesterday that hospitals were under pressure, but added that every hospital scales back planned care every winter, there is nothing unusual about that.

Hospital overcrowding is having tragic consequences. On June 15, a 51-year-old woman arrived at the Middlemore ED with a severe headache, but went home after being told she could not be seen for several hours. She died hours later of a brain haemorrhage.

A doctor at the hospital told Stuff that the woman might have been saved if she had been seen immediately. They said: We dont know what to do, we are suffering in silence. We know how bad everything is but no one will acknowledge it.

Stuff also reported on June 17 that a woman who had a miscarriage was sent home from Wellington Hospital and forced to wait two days before her dead baby could be delivered, because of short staffing.

On June 21, hospitals in Wellington deferred all non-urgent operations for another four weeks, with the District Health Board saying the current staffing challenges will continue for the foreseeable future. Thousands of people, many living with painful and debilitating conditions, are unable to access the care they need.

A recent survey by the Association of Salaried Medical Specialists of heads of department and clinical directors at several different hospitals, found an overall staffing shortage of 22 percent. The Wairarapa District Health Board in the lower North Island reported the worst shortage of 50 percent. The survey also found that the real level of need throughout the country exceeds the publicly advertised staff vacancies.

A worker at the Taranaki District Health Board told the WSWS: Almost all healthcare workers are getting tired. Hospitals cant fill out vacancies, as the number of people applying for jobs in this sector is getting lower day by day. He said the staffing shortage was largely because of a significant reduction of international workforce after the COVID-19 border closure, and the refusal of the government to recognise all overseas nursing qualifications.

The worker pointed out that a large number of hospital patients had been transferred from aged care facilities, where conditions have deteriorated sharply.

A nurse at a Wellington retirement home told the WSWS that understaffing in the sector was terrible. Across the aged care sector, he said, we currently have a shortage of 2,000 registered nurses. This has forced some facilities to close, while others have stopped accepting new residents.

At his workplace, there is a shortage of six nurses. We need three nurses per shift, but usually we are getting two. This means in an average shift, one nurse must look after 20 to 30 residents. This impacts on patient care, because sometimes they are getting their medication late, and the nurse said he worries about what might happen in the event of an emergency.

He also said immigration restrictions had exacerbated the crisis. A large proportion of nurses are migrants, especially from India and the Philippines. The border has now reopened, but the nurse said overseas registered nurses were choosing to move to Australia because of New Zealands low wages.

Aged care residents are particularly vulnerable to COVID-19. Staff are required to take a rapid antigen test every day, and visits are limited to one hour, but visitors do not face the same testing requirements. Despite the precautions, the Wellington nurse said, among our staff more than 50 percent have had COVID, requiring them to stay home for seven days and placing pressure on other workers to work long hours. I am working more than 60 hours per week, he said.

In response to health minister Andrew Littles statements that the healthcare system is coping, the nurse said: Which politician will say we are in terrible conditions? They will always say, We are good, we are under control. All over the world, all politicians tell lies. He said the minister should come into the community and ask how terrible it is.

The New Zealand Nurses Organisation yesterday criticised Littles statements as absolutely disrespectful to healthcare workers. But the unions have fully collaborated with the governments reopening policy, herding people back into unsafe schools and other workplaces.

The fight for a fully-resourced elimination strategy, including an immediate lockdown with compensation for workers and small businesses, must be taken up by workers in a rebellion against the pro-capitalist trade unions. This requires the formation of new organisationsrank-and-file workplace safety committees, controlled by workers themselvesand a political movement of the working class, in opposition to Labour and its allies, for the socialist reorganisation of society.

Read more here:

New Zealand government maintains let it rip policy despite worsening crisis in hospitals - WSWS

ROBERT KITCHIN/Stuff

Christopher Luxon and Andrew Bayly answer questions from reporters as they make their way into the House.

Two major political polls continue to diverge with a new poll putting Labour and National neck and neck, and with both Jacinda Ardern and Christopher Luxon boosting their personal approval ratings.

In the latest Talbot Mills corporate poll, Labour is still edging out National. Talbot Mills is also the Labour Partys pollster, and these figures are from a poll series it provides to corporate clients.

In the latest Taxpayers Union Curia Research Poll, conducted by Nationals pollster, National is edging out Labour.

The Talbot Mills poll has Labour at 36% edging out National at 35%, the Green Party at 10%, ACT at 8%. NZ First was polling at 3.3% and Te Pti Mori was at 3.1%. It was conducted June 2-10.

ROBERT KITCHIN/STUFF

PM Jacinda Ardern speaks to media before Caucus.

READ MORE:* Christopher Luxon surges to bring National neck and neck with Labour after only four months* New poll has National above Labour, Mori Party holding balance of power* New poll: National surge up closer to Labour; Greens and ACT down

Both major parties were one point lower than in the same poll conducted in May. The Greens and ACT increased their share of the vote by 2% and 1% respectively.

On those numbers, if an election were held today, the result would still likely hinge on Te Pti Mori. If Te Pti Mori holds Rawiri Waititis electorate seat of Waiariki (or wins another), it would be required by Labour and the Greens to form a majority in the House. Were it not to win an electorate, according to the Elections NZ calculator, Labour and the Greens would win 62 seats in the House.

Of the overall share of the vote going to the political left vs the political right, Labour and the Greens are edging out National-ACT with 46% to 44%.

The poll also delivered a boost in the preferred prime minister ratings to both Jacinda Ardern and Christopher Luxon, with Ardern climbing by 2 points to 42% and Luxon climbing by 3 points to 29%. ACT leader David Seymour remained steady on 8%.

The right-direction wrong-direction question, considered a key metric by pollsters and politicians alike, has also remained relatively static since the start of the year, although decreasing slightly. On the Talbot Mills figures, 50% of the country thinks the Government is going in the right direction, compared to 42% that think it is going in the wrong direction.

This gap has closed significantly since before the pandemic. In mid 2019 on the same poll, 61% thought the country was going in the right direction and 29% wrong direction. That grew to 75% to 13% in March 2021 before narrowing significantly after the onset of the Delta outbreak from August 7 last year.

It is the second poll in as many weeks showing a potentially tight election, but with some divergence. In the Taxpayers Union Curia Research Poll conducted by the National Partys pollster National-ACT were potentially winning an election with National on 37.4% and ACT on 9.4%, with Labour on 34.2% and the Greens on 8.3%.

On that poll, National and ACT could govern with 62 seats in the House of Representatives.

On that poll, the right-direction wrong-direction question yielded significantly different answers, with 50% of the those surveyed saying that the country is headed in the wrong direction, compared to 36% saying it is headed in the right direction.

It is understood that methodological difference likely explain the difference in direction.

The polls were both conducted before the new ministerial shake up by Jacinda Ardern last Monday.

Read more:

Polls diverge on voter direction as left and right blocs neck and neck - Stuff

A recent study from the University of Queensland in Australia sorted through data from 91 countries and came to the conclusion that countries led by women saw about 40% fewer deaths during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic than those led by men.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, female leaders have generally acted more quickly and decisively and have demonstrated greater risk aversion toward losses of human life, the report reads. In addition, they have consistently taken a broader view to consider the wider impact of coronavirus on society and have been more open to innovative thinking, thereby managing the COVID-19 crisis better than their male counterparts.

The Daily Beasts Barbie Latza Nadeau writes:

Using the example of male-led Australia and female-led New Zealand, Tan noted that Australias per capita death rate was shockingly high. As of 31 December 2020, although the population of Australia was only five times that of NZ, Australia had reported around 13 times more infections and 36 times the number of deaths than the numbers reported by New Zealand, he wrote.

[] The study stops around the time vaccines were introduced, at the end of 2020, but showcases the importance of coherent and trustworthy leadership. It is unrealistic to expect all countries to choose female leaders, the study concludes. However, perhaps male leaders could learn from their female counterparts and pay more attention to issues that matter to the health of the broader population and society. Trust in government, law, and order, which take a long time to develop, build a countrys resilience and have proved instrumental during both peace and crises.

The study looked at a number of various determinants and found that factors seemingly unrelated to healthcare (e.g., female leadership) can play essential roles in pandemic prevention, thereby shaping pandemic control outcomes. Taking into account that correlation does not equal causation, the researchers say their findings shed light on public policies that help develop preventive resources so that countries can better prepare for future health crises.

Its good to know that one of those preventative resources is to elect as many women as possible.

(via The Daily Beast, image: New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, by Robert Kitchin Pool/Getty Images)

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Study Shows People Living in Countries Led by Women Have Been Way Safer During COVID - The Mary Sue

Growing food security concerns have seen farmers in Europe push back on trade, instead supporting local, says Trade and Export Growth Minister Damien O'Connor.

Trade and Export Growth Minister Damien O'Connor. Photo: RNZ / Angus Dreaver

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern will meet with European leaders in Belgium next week to progress trade talks.

Negotiations with the European Union got formally underway in 2018 for the trade deal but progress has been slower than expected.

Ardern said the negotiations were in their closing stages.

Minister for Trade and Export Growth Damien O'Connor told Morning Report great progress had been made over the past two years.

"Nothing's a done deal until it's done and trade negotiations are inherently complex."

O'Connor said Ardern meeting in-person with leaders would provide more momentum to move forward.

But he said it was always the more difficult things in negotiations that were left to last.

"It always comes down to the agricultural products, the sensitive ones like beef and dairy and sheep meat to some extent.

"We have a whole lot of farmers in Europe and at the moment food security is a big issue, given the war in Ukraine. The farmers there think the best thing to do is support their own local farmers and actually to push back on trade.

"That's not the reality, in terms of the best solutions, but convincing them is not always easy."

The EU is made up of a number of countries, making it complex for the commissioners, he said.

"None the less, they see the wisdom in being connected with a country that shares many of their values around lowering emissions, better animal welfare standards, high labour standards, considering things like ecology and a better future. That's the reason they want to do a trade deal with us."

O'Connor would be travelling to Belgium on Friday to work with negotiators.

He met with a number of ministers from Europe, and the EU trade commissioner and agricultural minister, last week.

Go here to see the original:

EU trade talks: Agricultural products one of the challenges in negotiations, says minister - RNZ

National leader Christopher Luxon and Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern.

OPINION:

Jacinda Ardern's reshuffle creates several new contests when ministers with new jobs come up against Christopher Luxon's team in Parliament. Audrey Young looks at who is pitted against whom, and how they are likely to fare.

POLICEChris Hipkins vs Mark Mitchell

This will be the most highly-anticipated contest given the changing of the guard from one of the least confident ministers to one of the most confident and competent in Chris Hipkins. He has several attributes that predecessor Poto Williams did not have the ability to think quickly on his feet under pressure in the House and an ability to admit to the Government having problems, without accepting the blame.

That is how he excelled at Covid management, by admitting to the problems and being clear about the options.

Until the recent spate of drive-by shootings in Auckland, Question Time had become a cat and mouse game between Mark Mitchell and Williams over gang tensions, with Mitchell intent on getting Williams to even acknowledge that gang tensions had risen under the current Government. She made Mitchell look better than he actually is in the House.

JUSTICEKiri Allan vs Paul Goldsmith

Top marks to Kiri Allan for accepting early requests to talk to the news media despite barely having her feet under the Justice desk. Predecessor Kris Faafoi has resisted recent requests, possibly because he did not want to have to answer questions about policy plans he knew he did not intend to pursue because of his impending resignation.

This contest will be more interesting, anyway. Allan's opponent, Paul Goldsmith, has found fresh political legs since being shifted in November to justice from education, where he was withering.

She is a former lawyer and already has the feel of someone more comfortable in the job than Faafoi but she has barely faced political pressure in her previous roles in Conservation and Emergency Management. She and Goldsmith have exchanged opening salvoes already over crime rates and whether the Government is "soft on crime" a term she detests.

She correctly says that any changes to crime rates under Labour have occurred without changes to sentencing. He correctly points out that changes are underway, however, with the repeal of the Three Strikes law close. The Hate Speech laws will be the biggest test.

COVID-19 RESPONSEAyesha Verrall vs Chris Bishop

Despite New Zealanders dying daily in the Covid pandemic, there is no longer a sense of crisis in the Covid-19 issue, which gives Jacinda Ardern the confidence to hand it from Chris Hipkins to the less proven Ayesha Verrall. This is one of the more asymmetrical head-to-head contests in terms of political experience.

Chris Bishop is one of National's best performers and knows how to prosecute a case on the floor of the House, if he has a genuine case. However, Verrall's clinical experience as an infectious diseases specialist gives her an advantage with the public to a point.

An added advantage for Verrall is that Bishop is away and isolating with Covid. But when he returns it may be with a vengeance. Fingers crossed there is no new fatal variant.

BROADCASTINGWillie Jackson vs Melissa Lee

This is the contest that promises to ignite from time to time from a combination of combustible personalities and contentious policies. And both are former broadcasters themselves. Willie Jackson, in his capacity as Mori Development Minister, has been the Government's go-to guy on the issue of co-governance, in which his favoured form of defence has been attack.

That won't cut it as he shepherds the RNZTVNZ merger through in his new job. It is a different and specialist audience and he will be expected to be right across the detail and the arguments.

Melissa Lee has had broadcasting for a long time but has made little headway since claiming the scalp of Clare Curran in the first term. Jackson will have to be disciplined not to make himself a target.

SPEAKERTrevor Mallard vs David Seymour

The date of Mallard's departure from politics has not yet been finalised but he is likely to have just five more full sitting weeks as Speaker before handing over to deputy Adrian Rurawhe in August.

That gives Act leader David Seymour five weeks to try to destroy him and, by association, Jacinda Ardern, for agreeing to give Mallard a diplomatic posting.

Mallard and Seymour started off this term on good terms but relations soured after run-ins over various rulings such as the He Puapua report, and they have never recovered.

It will be a test of Mallard's diplomatic skills not to rise to the bait.

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Audrey Young: Five head-to-head contests to watch after reshuffle - New Zealand Herald