Monthly Archives: June 2022

NEW YORK (PIX11) With less than two weeks to go before New Yorkers cast their vote for who they want to be the states next leader in the gubernatorial primary, Republican candidates for governor sat down with PIX11 News to talk crime, the economy, school safety, abortion and more.

U.S. Rep. Lee Zeldin, former Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino, businessman and moderate Republican Harry Wilson and Andrew Giuliani, son of former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, joined PIX11 for a forum Tuesday night. Zeldin commands a lead in the race with 34% of the vote in exclusive PIX11 polling, conducted in partnership with The Hill and Emerson College Polling.

Whichever candidate wins the Republican nomination faces an uphill battle in the general election. Registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by more than two to one in New York.

Policing in New York would change under all of the Republican candidates. Zeldin would repeal a number of reforms made in recent years. Astorino has backed the controversial stop, question, and frisk policing tactic. Giuliani wants to pump $5 billion into the state police force. Wilson wants to get illegal weapons out of the hands of criminals and break down the Iron Pipeline.

Zeldin, Astorino and Giuliani are against abortion rights. New York has already codified abortion rights, but state lawmakers recently signed additional protections into law. Giuliani said that he would repeal some of those laws. Astorino called for compromise from Democratic lawmakers along with a greater emphasis on adoption and funding for pregnancy care centers. Wilson stands apart from his opponents; he describes himself as pro-abortion rights.

Wilson, Zeldin and Astorino all told PIX11 they want to cut taxes. Astorino said hed slash taxes in a dramatic fashion, but didnt share a percentage or dollar amount. Wilson, who wants to cut both income and property taxes, said hed also look at repealing regulations that drive up costs on food, housing and utilities. When asked about the burden of inflation, Giuliani did not address tax rates. He did say he would look at natural gas, shale and nuclear power in New York as a way of cutting down on energy prices.

The lineup of district attorneys in New York could see a shakeup under some of the Republican candidates. Specifically, Giuliani said he would fire Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg on his first day in office. Astorino would also remove Bragg and other district attorneys if they dont choose to prosecute some charges. He noted the governors ability to remove district attorneys from office should be used very rarely.

The candidates feel theyre the right person to bring Republican leadership back to New York. State residents havent voted a Republican governor into office since George Pataki in the mid-90s. Zeldin feels timing has kept conservatives out of New Yorks top office. The candidates running now all feel New York is on the wrong track. Giuliani said the system in Albany is fully broken and needs a reset. Wilson said his focus on results rather than rhetoric will entice Democrats. Astorinos past leading Westchester County, with its diverse populace, makes him suited to running New York, he said.

Democratic voters will also get a chance to hear from Gov. Kathy Hochul and the candidates facing off against her in the Democratic primary. Hochul has a large lead, with 57% of the votes in the most recent PIX11 poll. Shes facing challenges from Congressman Tom Suozzi, who was the top choice of 17% of polled voters, and NYC Public Advocate Jumaane Williams, who garnered 6% of the vote. One-fifth of Democratic voters remain undecided.

The Democratic forum will air on Saturday, June 25. Viewers can tune in to PIX11 or PIX11.com to watch at 8 p.m.

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NY Republican candidates for governor weigh in on crime, economy, abortion - WWLP.com

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A group working to elect more Republican women to Congress is touting its efforts, and successes, in congressional races across the country as the road to this year's midterm elections makes its way through a busy primary season.

The Winning For Women Action Fund (WFW AF), the political arm of the conservative women's advocacy group Winning For Women, has already been involved in a number of races this election cycle and has seen record fundraising as it looks to help women candidates make an even greater impact on the makeup of Congress.

Launched in 2019, the WFW AF was the first SuperPAC dedicated to electing Republican women. It endorsed over 20 candidates and spent nearly $3 million in its first campaign cycle during the 2020 elections, including for Iowa Republican Sen. Joni Ernst's tough re-election bid, and has cited that successful support as a sign the group will play a crucial role in the 2022 elections.

WILL AMERICA'S BIGGEST ISSUES BE HANDLED BETTER BY GOP OR DEMS? CENTRAL PARK VISITORS WEIGH IN

"Last cycle, 11 of the 15 seats flipped in the House were by women. Proof that when we invest in qualifiedfemale candidates, they win. This cycle, the road to the majority is through the districts where a strong female candidate is running, and we want to ensure they have what they need to win," the group said in a statement to Fox News Digital.

Winning For Women has endorsed candidates like, from left, Texas' Monica De La Cruz, Alabama's Katie Britt and Virginia's Jen Kiggans. (Cruz campaign | Britt campaign | Kiggans campaign)

WFW AF has already seen success this election cycle with primary wins by Rep. Nancy Mace in South Carolina's 1st Congressional District and Monica De La Cruz in Texas' 15th District, as well as Alabama Senate candidate Katie Britt advancing to a runoff Tuesday.

WFW AF, along with related groups, also raised $4.6 million in the first quarter of 2022, double what it raised at the same point in 2020, and has poured money into its selected races including spending nearly $550,000 on TV, radio and mail ads for Mace in the last two weeks leading up to the primary election against challenger Katie Arrington.

TRUMP NOT ON BALLOT BUT TUESDAY'S ALABAMA AND GEORGIA RUNOFF ELECTIONS TEST OF HIS CLOUT

De La Cruz, who is running in a district Republicans are targeting to flip from Democratic control, praised WFW AF in a statement to Fox News Digital, stressing the importance of the group's efforts in her race amid a massive shift in support from Hispanic voters toward the Republican Party.

"The shift in Hispanic voters to the Republican Party is one of the most important stories in American politics today, and Hispanic women are leading the charge," De La Cruz said. "As a small business owner, and a mom raising a family and serving the community, I know the American Dream is attainable for women in South Texas and across our nation."

"I also know firsthand that conservative policies provide real solutions and results that make it possible," she added. "That's why Winning for Women makes a difference, because the organization encourages and supports conservative women like myself who are running for office and want more for our families, our communities, and the American people."

Rep. Nancy Mace speaks at a fundraiser that was headlined by former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley in Charleston on March 11, 2022. (Nancy Mace congressional campaign)

WFW AF's latest endorsement and financial boost have gone to Virginia state Sen. Jennifer Kiggans, who is running in Tuesday's Republican primary for the state's 2nd Congressional District considered a tossup and is hoping to face embattled Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria in the general election.

The group launched a more than $200,000 ad campaign in support of Kiggans after a Democratic group, Patriot Majority PAC, began running ads advocating for her Republican opponent, Jarome Bell, who appeared on stage with former President Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago last month.

A spokesperson for WFW AF suggested the ads in support of Bell meant Democrats saw Kiggans as the true "threat" to Luria's seat.

DEMOCRATIC REP. ELAINE LURIA OK IF SERVICE ON JAN. 6 COMMITTEE COSTS HER RE-ELECTION IN NOVEMBER

Other prominent Republican women have praised the work of WFW AF, including former U.N. Ambassador and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who detailed her efforts in working alongside the group to get strong female candidates elected.

"Conservative women are built tough and are tired of being silenced by the Left and the media.That's why I'm traveling the country campaigning for conservatives which include some of the strongest ladies I know.Now is not the time to sit back, but to press forward. I can't wait to see the next class of freedom fighting women get elected," she said in a statement to Fox News Digital.

Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley gives a speech. (Nikki Halley Stand for America PAC)

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WFW AF has so far endorsed 24 candidates for this year's midterms, but said there are "definitely more to come."

Fox News' Tyler Olson contributed to this report.

Brandon Gillespie is an associate editor at Fox News. Follow him on Twitter at @brandon_cg.

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Winning For Women: Group says road to Republican majority runs through electing female conservatives - Fox News

Now the Stefanik-Langworthy rift is spreading to fronts that could hurt the GOP further. Langworthys political director for the state party restricted fundraising and voter contact data Stefaniks team could access before the Republican National Committee intervened to restore it, according to one person familiar with the matter. Stefaniks team suggested the RNC stop sending money to the New York GOP to pay for staff and instead hire New York-based RNC-paid staffers, this person added, insisting on anonymity to address the feud candidly.

She is focused on representing New Yorks 21st district, winning back the House to save America, and working with fellow New Yorkers to help elect a Republican Governor to save New York.

A Stefanik spokesperson who declined to be named said in a statement.

RNC spokesperson Emma Vaughn said in a statement that the national party committee has a great partnership with NYGOP Chairman Langworthy and Republican Conference Chair Stefanik. Republican candidates are in an excellent position to score big wins in New York, and we plan on investing heavily in the state to support Republicans up and down the ballot.

New York GOP spokesperson Jessica Proud aired similar sentiments in a statement that did not mention Stefanik, touting an incredibly strong partnership with the RNC and adding that, Chairman Langworthy works together seamlessly with Chairwoman McDaniel and her team on behalf of all our GOP candidates and elected officials.

We have a number of important initiatives including the field program that we are working together on hiring and implementing for the 2022 cycle. Any suggestion otherwise is plain false, Proud said.

A Stefanik spokesperson who declined to be named said in a statement that if Elise wanted to run for Governor, she would have run for Governor. As everyone knows, Elise made the decision to run for House Republican Conference Chair and not to run for Governor. She is focused on representing New Yorks 21st district, winning back the House to save America, and working with fellow New Yorkers to help elect a Republican Governor to save New York.

While starting as an intrastate political fight, the burgeoning feud has the potential to spill over into national GOP politics. Stefanik is a rising star in conservative circles but her battle against Langworthy may have created a liability for herself as the No. 3 House Republican leader. Shes embraced Langworthys primary opponent Carl Paladino, whos made a mountain of controversial statements including a viral video from 2021 that showed him calling Adolf Hitler the kind of leader we need.

One House Republican lawmaker feared that if Paladino wins the race to replace Jacobs, he could behave on the Hill in the mold of Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), whos known to publicly blast her own GOP colleagues if they take votes she disagrees with.

Another House Republican warned that Stefaniks endorsement of Paladino could be used against her as she eyes a bid for leadership next year. The 37-year-old may try to remain in her current role as conference chair or to move up to majority whip, should the GOP take back the House in November as expected.

I think it could hurt her, depending on how she handles it going forward, this senior House Republican said on condition of anonymity, noting that it depends if Stefanik distances herself from Paladino should he continue to spark controversies her rivals might exploit.

But others jumped in to defend Stefanik, noting her record of successful endorsements in other House GOP races, including her previous work electing Republican women through her leadership PAC.

Members of Congress smearing Carl while trying to count leadership race votes would be wise to court Carl Paladino, who according to an independent poll is winning in a landslide against Nick Langworthy, a senior Republican operative said, speaking anonymously to share insight on the race. This will be a huge, embarrassing loss for Langworthy in August.

Langworthy, for his part, has accused Stefanik of endorsing Paladino as part of her vendetta against him. She endorsed a candidate that she knew was not in the best interest of the swing seats in the great state of New York, the party chair told the New York Post earlier this month. I mean, its really unfortunate.

But Langworthy himself has rubbed some in the New York GOP wrong, according to two Republicans interviewed for this story with some arguing it was a conflict of interest for him to vie for Jacobs seat after using his perch as state party chair to push the first-year lawmaker out of Congress.

Nick Langworthy.|Nick Niedzwiadek/POLITICO

As the Empire State spat rages on, multiple House Republicans professed to being unaware of Paladinos string of past objectionable moments.

That list includes racist and sexist statements about how he hoped then-President Barack Obama would die of mad cow disease and that then-First Lady Michelle Obama would return to being a male and let loose in the outback of Zimbabwe where she lives comfortably in a cave with Maxie, the gorilla. During his 2010 gubernatorial run, a batch of leaked emails he reportedly forwarded included bestiality videos.

Paladino has since apologized for his remarks about the Obamas. He also tried to distance himself for his recently resurfaced Hitler comments.

The context of my statement was in regards to something I heard on the radio from someone else and was repeating, I understand that invoking Hitler in any context is a serious mistake and rightfully upsets people, Paladino said in a statement. I strongly condemn the murderous atrocities committed against the Jewish people by Hitler and the Nazis.

Regarding Paladinos comments, the Stefanik spokesperson said the congresswoman has one of the strongest records in the US Congress condemning anti-Semitism and led and passed bipartisan legislation to expand Holocaust education.

Prior to the news reports about Paladinos Hitler remarks, POLITICO asked Stefanik about Paladinos past controversial comments, to which the GOP conference chair replied: Hes been smeared by the media before.

She also pointed to Paladinos failed 2010 gubernatorial bid, noting: He is beloved in Buffalo and won a Democratic county by two to one against Governor Cuomo in 2010.

Joe Spector contributed from Albany, N.Y.

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New York GOP roiled by feud with Stefanik at the center - POLITICO

A number of Republican-led states that are moving to ban abortion are, at the same time, extending health insurance benefits to new mothers, professing to support women in crisis.

As the US supreme court prepares to rule on national abortion rights, many Republican states are seeking severe abortion bans that would force many women to carry pregnancies to term, likely worsening the US maternal mortality crisis.

Some of those same lawmakers are now passing bills that extend Medicaid benefits to low-income mothers, typically for one year after they give birth rather than the current two months.

Arizona, Florida, Tennessee and Texas have all extended health benefits for low-income mothers in recent months, and Alabama and Georgia have both moved to implement such extensions, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation. All have also sought to impose severe abortion restrictions or bans.

Although expanding pregnancy-related health coverage is a win in many ways, it does not counteract the fact that abortion bans would certainly lead to higher risks for maternal morbidity or mortality, said Sarah Blake, an associate professor of health policy at Emory University in Georgia.

Blake said Georgia lawmakers are in Jekyll and Hyde mode. Even as advocates for maternal health, herself included, are very happy for the extension, she said, we know the state is very against women and their access to full scope reproductive health services.

Changes to postpartum benefits come as the supreme court is expected to rule in the coming days on a critical abortion rights case, Dobbs v Jackson Womens Health Organization. A leaked draft opinion showed conservative justices are on the verge of ending federal abortion protections. If that happened, 26 states would be certain or likely to ban abortion.

It shows you how [Republicans] are not operating in good faith, said Loretta Ross, an associate professor at Smith College in Georgia and a reproductive justice activist. If they really cared about maternal mortality theyd reduce the causes of maternal mortality and it goes way beyond Medicaid expansion.

State legislators in both Democrat- and Republican-led states have made changes to Medicaid, a federal and state partnership that provides health insurance for the poor and disabled, to take advantage of a provision of federal pandemic aid which streamlined postpartum benefit changes.

However, the most dramatic effects would be in Republican-led states, where lawmakers have long refused to expand the program to more low-income people.

The refusal is a legacy of Obamacare debates. Around the time the Affordable Care Act, better known as Obamacare, Republicans sued to stop the expansion of Medicaid. They succeeded in the supreme court, and each state was forced to adopt Medicaid expansion individually.

A dozen states, mostly in the US south, still refuse to do so, even though the federal government would pay 90% of the costs of expanding the program.

Expanding Medicaid only to postpartum women appears to be a way for Republican-led states to champion their aid to a sympathetic group, even as they oppose broader Medicaid expansion and ban abortion, said Ross.

In Texas, for example a state where one-quarter of women of reproductive age lack health insurance, the highest rate in the nation, and which is among the 10 worst states for maternal mortality lawmakers recently expanded Medicaid to pregnant patients for six months after giving birth, instead of two.

A single adult supporting two children cannot earn more than $2,760 a year and qualify for Medicaid unless they are pregnant, in which case they can earn up to $45,600 a year and qualify. However, the exemption previously lasted just 60 days after birth the federal minimum after which most people become uninsured once again.

The expansion to six months is welcome but insufficient, said Erika Ramirez, director of policy and advocacy for the Texas Womens Healthcare Coalition: We got six, which is better than nothing [But] over and over, [the] top recommendation [from maternal health experts] has been for women to get postpartum care for a full 12 months.

When the legislation was signed, Texas state senator Lois Kolkhorst, who sponsored it, described the Medicaid extension as a bipartisan effort to help keep Texas moms healthy and provide the care needed to avoid preventable deaths and illnesses .

Yet just two days before the bill passed in the Senate, Kolkhorst and her Republican colleagues passed a total abortion ban, which is expected to go into effect immediately if the US supreme court ends federal abortion protections. It is one of 26 abortion restrictions Kolkhorst voted for in her 11-year career as a legislator.

A similar effort to simultaneously extend Medicaid to pregnant women and ban abortion is under way in Alabama. There, one of the most vocal proponents of expansion is Republican state representative Debbie Wood, who also opposes abortion in nearly all circumstances, including rape and incest.

Kolkhorst could not be reached for comment and Wood did not respond to requests for an interview.

In Tennessee, the Republican governor, Bill Lee, directly connected the states postpartum Medicaid expansion and abortion. At a press conference in May, he spoke about Tennessees trigger ban, a law that will allow the state to immediately ban abortion if the supreme court ends federal protections.

The lives of unborn children its very important that we protect the lives of them, he said, adding: Its also important that we recognize that women in crisis need support and assistance through this process. For example, thats why weve expanded our postpartum coverage for women in TennCare.

This kind of strategy pits needy people against each other, said Ross. Were supposed to advocate for postpartum women to get Medicaid, and screw everybody else who needs it? Its a classic divide and conquer strategy.

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Republican states trying to ban abortion expand health benefits for new mothers - The Guardian US

Where the hells my party? Newsom said. Wheres the counteroffensive?

He is always careful to explain that he means no disrespect to the gerontocratic official leaders of the Democratic Party: President Biden (who is 79), Speaker Nancy Pelosi (82) and Senator Chuck Schumer (71), the majority leader.

And though Newsom has declared that he has subzero interest in running for president and aides insist that he is deadly earnest about that he appears to be not only positioning himself as a point man for blue states but also laying the groundwork for a future White House run.

During an interview with my colleagues Shawn Hubler and Jill Cowan in March, Newsom said he felt a real sense of obligation to speak out.

Theres something really profound happening at the state level, and I just think weve been sleepwalking, he said.

As demoralized Democrats search for political heroes, Newsom offers the allure of a proven winner. He crushed a recall attempt last year and emerged stronger. In Californias recent primary election, he finished ahead of his closest opponent by nearly 40 percentage points.

On election night, Newsom will be the winner of the largest state and by the largest margin, Mike Madrid, a former Republican political consultant based in Sacramento, predicted about November. Theres no way he cannot be part of a national conversation.

Last weeks editorial choices by The Atlantic, the proverbial in-flight magazine of Air Force One, were especially striking: Ron Brownstein, the influential Los Angeles-based pundit and CNN analyst, gushed over Newsoms leadership in one breath while Mark Leibovich, a former New York Times writer, raised doubts about Bidens re-election chances in another.

During the Trump presidency, as blue-state governors battled with the White House over pandemic restrictions and immigration, Newsom often seemed to be competing with Gov. Andrew Cuomo of New York for influence. But Cuomo resigned in 2021 amid allegations of sexual misconduct, leaving Newsom as the nations most powerful Democratic governor.

Hes filling a vacuum, said David Atkins, a Democratic National Committee member from California. Newsom really understands the current political moment and what the modern Republican Party has become.

The surge of interest in Newsom comes as Democrats begin to openly debate whether Biden, given his age (which is high) and his approval ratings (which are low), ought to bear the partys standard again in 2024.

Most such conversations begin with two assumptions: that Vice President Kamala Harris is Bidens natural heir, and that she would face many Democratic challengers should he bow out.

On Saturday, Gov. J.B. Pritzker of Illinois was the keynote speaker at a dinner for the Democratic Party of New Hampshire, prompting speculation that his motives go beyond the stated goal of helping fellow governors who support abortion rights.

Newsoms rise coincides with a series of stinging defeats for prized progressive policies and goals. The Supreme Court appears poised to reverse Roe, while Republican-led states like Florida and Texas are enacting new restrictions on what teachers in public schools may say about gender and sexual identity. In Congress, Republicans have foiled Democrats attempts to pass legislation aimed at protecting voting rights, slowing the pace of climate change and a host of other priorities.

If the president were not to run, its hard to imagine that Newsom would not be sorely tempted to enter the race, said David Axelrod, a longtime Democratic strategist and political adviser to former President Barack Obama.

Newsom is young and politically muscular, Axelrod added, which may be just what the market will be seeking post-Biden.

But the Peoples Republic of California can be a dual-edged blade for Democrats with national aspirations.

With a population of nearly 40 million people, hordes of wealthy liberal donors and an economy larger than Indias, the state is an appealing platform for a presidential run.

All three of the countrys Californian presidents Herbert Hoover, Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan were Republicans, however. No Democrat from California has ever been elected to the Oval Office.

Theyve never really been to college on how to win a Michigan or a Wisconsin, said Mike Murphy, a Republican political consultant based in Los Angeles. So their instincts tend to be wrong.

Aides to Newsom say theres no hidden agenda here: He just wants to prove to Democrats across the country that taking on Republicans, forcefully and directly, is a winning political move. And in a state as diverse and geographically complex as California, he can reach more Democratic voters by popping off on Maddow than by appearing on, say, local television.

Newsoms political advisers have studied the way Scott Walker handled a similar drive to recall him as governor of Wisconsin in 2012. Walker survived with 53 percent of the vote, setting him up with a national following and donor base on the right.

But Walkers ensuing bid for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination flamed out quickly. Broke and polling badly, he dropped out in September 2015, months before the Iowa caucuses.

For Newsom, gleaning insights from Walkers recall was simply a matter of political survival, aides say. And today, by defining Republicans as capricious and cruel, he is merely taking full advantage of his platform.

Hes expressing general concern about whats happening and offering up California as an alternative vision, said Anthony York, a spokesman for the governor. The stuff thats going on in other states across the country is dangerous.

Complicating Newsoms calculations, Democratic insiders say, is his relationship with Harris, who served as Californias attorney general before her successful run for Senate in 2016.

Taking on Harris would put Newsom at odds with the only Black woman ever to serve as vice president. Whatever private doubts many top Democrats voice about her viability in a hypothetical contest with Trump, she would be a formidable opponent in early presidential primary states like South Carolina, where Black voters powered Biden to victory in 2020. Most of the highly speculative, early polls presuming a Biden-free Democratic primary in 2024 place Harris atop the heap.

Newsom and Harris have also shared the same political consulting firm and swim in many of the same elite waters. Megadonors and other power brokers in California are likely to blanch at the prospect of an open conflict between the states two most powerful Democrats.

I cant imagine a world in which they would run against each other, said Michael Kapp, a Los Angeles County official and D.N.C. member.

Newsom might be better off running in a year that looks more auspicious for Democrats, such as 2028. At that point, the governor would be 61 years old and amply seasoned after two terms in office, though he would need to amass and smartly package a record that could appeal to primary and general election voters alike, Murphy cautioned.

For now, in taking on Ron DeSantis and Greg Abbott, his ambitious counterparts in Florida and Texas, Newsom is stoking cross-country rivalries that could benefit all three governors. He has mentioned DeSantis dozens of times over the last few years, while jabbing Abbott somewhat less often. Most recently, Newsom criticized DeSantis on Twitter for refusing to assist with the distribution of federally supplied vaccines for children.

He tweets all the time about my boss, said Christina Pushaw, a spokeswoman for DeSantis who spars frequently with the California governor online. Newsom seems to be trying to start some kind of feud.

If so, its a two-way affair: DeSantis has blamed liberal voters for turning San Francisco into a dumpster fire and said he didnt want residents from California moving to Florida because they would continue to vote the same way.

Shawn Hubler contributed reporting.

As the House committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack resumed its public hearings today, it revealed that Donald Trump was directly involved in a scheme to put forward slates of false pro-Trump electors in states won by Joe Biden. Read how the afternoon unfolded.

Vice President Mike Pence is trying to navigate a difficult political moment as his former boss faces withering scrutiny over Jan. 6, Maggie Haberman and Reid Epstein write.

Voters in Alabama and Georgia were making their final selections today in congressional runoff elections, and Virginia primary voters were choosing party nominees for two of the most closely watched House races in the country. Follow our live updates here and watch the results as they arrive here.

Thanks for reading. Well see you tomorrow.

Blake

Is there anything you think were missing? Anything you want to see more of? Wed love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com.

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Why Is Gavin Newsom Poking the G.O.P. Bear? - The New York Times

In the hearing room on Capitol Hill this week, a parade of Trump advisors testified that they tried to tell the President that he had lost the 2020 election. Its possible that Trump knew he had lost but decided to pursue another, more cynical route to power by persisting in whats come to be known as the Big Lie. Or its possible that Trumps narcissism was so powerful that he simply couldnt believe the experts and pursued the Big Lie out of a delusional fantasy. Sorting this out will keep historians and psychiatrists busy for years to come. In the meantime, however, the Big Lie has become a prominent feature of some Republican primary races around the country and one more way of measuring Donald Trumps strength within the Republican Party.

The importance of the Big Lie was on display in the June 14 Republican primary in South Carolina. It featured two House races in which Republican candidates embraced Trumps delusion against two incumbent Republicans who refused to go along. In South Carolinas 1st district, incumbent Nancy Mace, was running for a second term. In 2020, she flipped a Democratic seat, campaigning as a solid supporter of Trump and ran with Trumps endorsement. But, appalled by the January 6 rioters, in one of her first acts in Congress she refused to object to the certification of electors, and she called on Trump to get off Twitter. Her opposition to the Big Lie earned her Trumps enmity and a primary opponent, Katie Arrington, who had Trumps support. Because the two candidates share many of the same positions on issues, the race largely revolved around Maces betrayal of Trump. In South Carolinas 7th congressional district, incumbent Tom Rice, also broke with Trump over the January 6 riotsgoing even farther than Mace did by voting to impeach Trump. That got him a primary challenger, state representative Russell Fry, who has been running with Trumps endorsement. Unlike Mace, Rice has not tried to soften his opposition to the Big Lie. On primary night, Mace won her race and Rice lost his.

In our study of all the candidates to date, we broke the Big Lie down into three parts in order to get a more nuanced understanding of how Republicans are dealing with this issue. In one we looked to see if the candidate mentioned the January 6 attack on the Capitol and how they felt about it. In another we looked for the candidates views on the 2020 election and in yet another we looked for the candidates views on issues of election integrity in general. In House and Senate primaries, we coded candidates websites, Facebook pages, other social media platforms and media interviews. So far, we have evaluated 759 Republican House and Senate candidates.

Republican candidates generally refrained from discussing the January 6 riots in their campaign materials. As Table 1 indicates, only 38 candidates or 5.01% of all Republican candidates made statements to the effect that January 6 was the work of patriots legitimately protesting a corrupt election. Surprisingly, slightly more Republican candidates made statements indicating January 6 was a violent insurrection/coup attempt and steps must be taken to protect democracy63 candidates or 8.3% of the total. The vast majority of Republican candidates did not seek to opine on January 6. Nearly 87% made no mention of the event at all.

The final columns in Table 1 show the percentage of candidates in each category who actually won their races. Surprisingly, the candidates who spoke out against the insurrection did better than those who supported it, but the numbers are small, there are still candidates in runoffs and there are still races to be decided.

We also looked for statements showing how candidates felt about the legitimacy of the 2020 election. More candidates had opinions on this than they did on January 6 but still not very many. As Table 2 indicates, 65 candidates or 8.56% of all candidates to date campaigned on something to the effect of, Bidens win was a myth, and Trump would have won without voter fraud. Notably more candidates believed something like, the election should have been investigated further, but I dont believe Biden is illegitimate; 113 candidates or 14.89% of all candidates to date said something like that in their campaign materials or appearances. As one would imagine, practically no Republican candidates went so far as to state that Biden won the election fairly. But, perhaps most importantly, 74.7% or 567 candidates made no mention of the legitimacy of the 2020 election at all.

Candidates who took the more moderate position, that the election should have been investigated further, did better than candidates who bought into the Big Lie. Only 14 Republican candidates believed Biden was the clear winner and they did well too.

Finally, we looked for general statements about election integrity with a focus on the future not the past. In Table 3, 42.6% or 323 candidates made statements in favor of election reforms that would make it harder to cheat, and only 17 candidates or 2.24% of the total made statements indicating that theyd like to make it easier for people to vote. Clearly the former was a safe haven for most candidates: expressing concern about election integrity without having to support the violence around January 6 or the Big Lie. But even here the majority of Republican candidates419 candidates or 55.2% of the total candidates to datestayed away from the issue.

On this issue, overall election integrity, Republican candidates who were in favor of tightening voting rules in the name of improving election integrity did fairly well. No wonder so many Republican candidates adopted this position. It was a forward-looking position that allowed them to express some doubt about the past without getting mired in approving or disapproving the violence of January 6 and without getting sucked into conspiracy theories about the 2020 election.

What are we to make of these findings?

First, January 6 and the 2020 elections do not loom as large in the minds of Republican candidates in 2022 as they do in the mind of Donald Trump.

Second, to the despair of many Republicans, Trumps strategy for the 2022 midterms has been all about him and the 2020 election. It is a backwards looking strategy that has resulted in mixed verdicts on Trump all across the countryas it did in South Carolina on June 14. And third, most of his victories are in deep red states and districts. Trump is not changing hearts and minds as much as he is activating a cadre of 2020 voters who are among his most passionate and committed.

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What impact are the events of January 6 having on the Republican primaries? - Brookings Institution