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Monthly Archives: July 2021
NH sewer projects trickle to town taxes – Valley News
Posted: July 25, 2021 at 3:27 pm
WEST LEBANON Upper Valley municipal managers say the loss of a state grant program that helped New Hampshire towns and cities pay for costly wastewater upgrades will translate to higher tax and utility bills as they work to cover the funding shortfall.
The states two-year budget, signed into law last month by Republican Gov. Chris Sununu, reinstates a moratorium on new projects eligible for wastewater state aid grants.
The program, administered by the New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services, is intended to offset the multimillion-dollar costs that municipalities can incur while improving their sewer systems and thereby provide an incentive to curb pollution.
Under state law, it offers to cover between 20% and 30% of costs, with contributions often used to help pay off long-term bonds on already-completed projects.
However, the new moratorium leaves about 110 projects without funding over the next two years, many of which are already underway.
Taxpayers will have to pick this up, said Margaret Byrnes, executive director of the New Hampshire Municipal Association, which advocated for inclusion of the grants in the state budget.
Byrnes said that by instituting the moratorium, the state essentially failed to meet its promises and left local officials in a bind. With few other ways to pay for construction, she said, residents in many Granite State cities and towns are likely to see bills get passed on to them.
Thats the case in Lebanon, where city officials are now working to include the additional costs in the upcoming 2022 budget, according to City Manager Shaun Mulholland.
The city had seven projects on the states lists of potential grant recipients, including three phases of the combined sewer overflow, or CSO, projects, a $73 million, federally mandated effort to separate sewer and stormwater in 15 miles of Lebanons sewer system.
The states list estimates it cost $18.2 million for the three CSO projects, meaning the state grants would typically send at least $3.6 million to Lebanon.
It will impact water and sewer system users as well as taxpayers, since all three contribute to the projects, Mulholland predicted earlier this week.
Lebanon homeowners and businesses connected to the utilities already have been facing yearly water and sewer rate increases as the city attempts to pay off debt from the CSO projects.
Any more fees placed on the citys some 3,300 customers and those in neighboring Enfield could prove burdensome, said Lebanon Mayor Tim McNamara.
Having the (state aid) grants not there is a problem for capital projects, he said. We may have to put some things off or we may have to delay some other projects to get priority projects done.
Claremont also braced for the moratorium as it budgeted for the start of its fiscal year on July 1, City Manager Ed Morris said.
Claremont had two projects on the list of eligible projects, including more than $3.4 million in electrical upgrades to its wastewater treatment facility, so it could lose out on at least $170,000 in state grants.
Morris said both projects received low-interest loans from the state that will help minimize long-term costs. However, he acknowledged that ratepayers will be on the hook for more money and, without the state grants, future projects will likely be delayed.
I hope that the state Legislature will reconsider in future years, Morris said.
This isnt the first time that lawmakers have limited the wastewater grants. A moratorium on new projects was in place for years until the then-Democratic-controlled Legislature restored funding in its 2020-21 budget.
That move allowed 160 projects that were substantially completed before the end of 2019 to apply for aid, which will continue over the next two years, despite the restrictions placed on new grants. Overall, the states two-year budget allocates $15.6 million to continue paying for those older efforts.
Basically, thats good news, said Tracy Wood, who oversees the grant program at DES Wastewater Engineering Bureau.
Wood added that two bills were retained this year that could result in more wastewater programs getting funding next year, and the state agency will continue maintaining a list of projects just in case money is made available.
Some Republicans argue that they fully funded all of the states environmental requests. Rep Lynne Ober, R-Hudson, chairwoman of the House Finance Committee said DES didnt seek the additional grant funding when Sununu administration officials made their funding requests earlier this year.
There were agencies that did not get fully funded budget line items from the House, she said in an email. DES is not one as their budget was fully funded.
However, state Sen. Sue Prentiss, a Lebanon Democrat whose district includes Claremont, said Republicans should have anticipated the local shortfalls and adequately funded the program in the first place.
The most immediate impact is going to be felt by the ratepayers, Prentiss said of the halt to new wastewater grants. Anytime you take money out of that pot, something has to fill the gap.
Cuts to wastewater grants arent the only example of downshifting, or forcing municipalities to pick up higher costs once covered by the state, within the budget, said Prentiss, a former Lebanon mayor.
New Hampshires new school voucher program, also known as education freedom accounts, will take money away from local school districts and instead allow them to go to private institutions, she argued, and cuts to social services could force towns and cities to pay a higher share to nonprofits that assist their residents.
Tim Camerato can be reached at tcamerato@vnews.com or 603-727-3223.
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Falling case numbers may yet save the PM’s bacon – Telegraph.co.uk
Posted: at 3:27 pm
Two years into his premiership, Boris Johnson finds himself - yet again - in a tight spot.
The significant poll lead the Conservative Party hassustained over Labour ever since the vaccine rollout began in earnest at the start of the yearis evaporating. YouGov and Survation both have the Tories dipping below the 40 per centthreshold, theirlead down to four points in their latest surveys. Opinium has just recorded a ten-point drop in the Governments net approval rating for its handling of the pandemic apromise of trouble down the line.
And Keir Starmer has just made an important tactical decision that could further complicate matters for the PM. Starmer's choice not to back the implementation of Covid vaccine passports leaves the Government open toCommons defeat, given the objections of dozens of Tory backbenchers.
Those pointing to polling that suggests around 70 per cent of the public support vaccine passports are rather missing the point. Ever since the pandemic began, polls have found Labour voters much more inclined than Tory ones to back the withdrawal of normal liberties.But the current tribe of Labour voters shorn of its working class red wallers is most unlikely to switch its support to the Conservatives and would probably forgive Starmer for his stance if it results in the hated Johnson getting a bloody nose.
On the other hand, there is no doubt that the announcement of vaccine passports has enraged a large chunk of the Conservative base, triggering a rash of resignations among grassroots members and outpourings of fury in the shires. So if the policy is actually implemented at the end of September then we should expect a further Tory slump, despite it polling well with the electorate overall.
The measure has come to symbolise a growing feeling that Johnson has mislaid the fundamentals of Conservatism whether in the growing size of the state or his Government's readiness to intrude on the private citizen, impose higher taxes or allow fiscal discipline to crumble. A tendency to exempt ministers from the standards expectedof the general public, illustrated by the PM's lethargic handling of the Matt Hancock affair and his initial willingness to allow himself and his Chancellor to dodge the consequences of the pingdemic, has also outraged voters.
Yet the PMs detractors should not get carried away. They have predicted his downfall many times before for instance, when the Supreme Court declared his prorogation of the Commons unlawful in autumn 2019 and when he appeared to bungle lockdown decisions while in shopping trolley mode in autumn 2020 and yet he bounced back each time.
As David Cameron, his contemporary at Eton and Oxford, wryly observed when Johnson concluded a new Withdrawal Agreement with the EU against expectations: The thing about the greased piglet is that he manages to slip through other peoples hands where mere mortals fail.
And a new escape route could already be opening up. Against the expectations of many experts and also contrary to Starmer's predictions -last Monday he declared that were heading to 100,000 cases a day - the latest official statistics show that new Covid cases are falling away. If this trend (which is now well-enough established to have led to a 4.5% fall in the seven-day average for case numbers) continues, then some Whitehall-watchersbelieve the PM will shelve the Covid passports policy, declaring it unnecessary.
It would then be seen as a mere ruse that was used to dragoon many younger adults down to vaccination centres for fear of not being allowed into nightclubs or football grounds in the autumn. No doubt it would still be highly resented as such by those of a libertarian disposition who follow politics closely, but its disappearance in a puff of smoke might well save the PMs bacon yet again.
By the end of nextweek, we will probably see whether the decline incase numbers will be sustained. Ministers fear it may be a blip caused by a reduction in mixing after the end of the Euros football tournament and that the July 19 Freedom Day relaxations will soon feed through into a new upward trend.
Yet the prize swinging tantalisingly towards the Prime Ministers reach is that normality resumes just as the virus ebbs away. Yes, there will need to be autumn booster shots for the over-50s. But his gamble of pressing ahead with relaxations on July 19 (notwithstanding the pingdemic and the threat of vaccine passports), on the basis of if not now, when? will have been vindicated.
Being able to throw Starmers doom-laden prediction of 100,000 daily cases plus a consequent upsurge in deaths back in his face in the autumn, and declare the UK the first major European country to have beaten the pandemic, would constitute a major political moment. The greased piglet would be running free once again.
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Philadelphia Union at Inter Miami CF odds, picks and prediction – USA TODAY Sportsbook Wire
Posted: at 3:27 pm
The Philadelphia Union (6 wins, 4 losses, 5 draws) travel south to take on Inter Miami CF (2-8-2) Sunday at DRV PNK Stadium in Fort Lauderdale, Fla. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we preview the Philadelphia Union vs. Inter Miami CF odds and lines, and make our best MLS bets, picks and predictions.
The Union come in struggling of late with a 1-2-2 record over their last five games. However, its excused as Philadelphia sent many players to represent their respective nations in the CONCACAF Gold Cup.
Philadelphia is down GK Andre Blake, F Cory Burke and D Alvas Powell, all of which have played an impactful role this season. Inter Miami CF sent just D Kelvin Leerdam.
Over the last five games, Miami has allowed 12 goals and scored just 1. Its been a brutal stretch for the Eastern Conferences last-place team.
Odds via BetMGM; accessUSA TODAY Sports betting oddsfor a full list. Lines last updated at 9:10 a.m. ET.
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Philadelphia Union 1, Inter Miami CF 0
BET on the UNION (+130) as the couple of pieces theyre down shouldnt impact them too much. Blake is the most important loss as hes their starting goalie.
GKJoe Bendik has served as a decent backup. This match will be more about Inter Miamis inability to defend. It has given up 22 goals through 12 matches and Miami has also lost five of six home games and doesnt take advantage of the home crowd.
Despite being down a couple players, Id still back Philadelphia.
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LEAN to the UNDER 2.5 (-125) as the best value on the total.
The Union will be without their second-leading scorer in Burke. They arent a score-heavy side as they have just 19 goals through 15 matches.
Philadelphias strength comes in its defending which should get a nice break as the only player on the opposing side to really worry about is F Gonzalo Higuan. Hes the only Inter Miami player with more than 1 goal on the season.
That said, the Under hit in three of the last six games for both sides. Its the better play but just for half a unit.
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Philadelphia Union at Inter Miami CF odds, picks and prediction - USA TODAY Sportsbook Wire
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Family Has Miracle On Their CF Journey The Okawville Times – The Okawville Times
Posted: at 3:27 pm
Ryan and Alicia Luechtefeld have had their share of ups and downs in their journey of raising two children with Cystic Fibrosis. Both Madison, 17, and Logan, 11 take daily treatments and medication for the inherited disorder that affects the lungs, digestion system, and other organs.
Their latest up is so high that it is off the radar.
Thanks to a new Trikafta medication Madison has been taking for 18 months, recent testing showed that her sodium chloride level was so low that she no longer has CF.
The Luechtefelds consider that nothing short of a miracle. Miracles do happen when you believe the fight can be won! said Alicia.
Logan started taking Trikafta three weeks ago when the drug was approved for 6-12 year olds. In just three days of taking Trikafta, Logans cough was almost completely eliminated, his mother said.
Read the full story in this weeks issue.
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Former CF Bank building turned over to Wellsville Community Foundation – Morning Journal News
Posted: at 3:27 pm
WELLSVILLE The Wellsville Community Foundation (WCF) took ownership of the former CF Bank office building on Main Street last month.
The building, which has not been in full use for a number of years, was given to the non-profit WCF by the bank. The foundation plans to determine the best charitable or non-profit use of the buildings and are soliciting ideas from the community. There will be several open houses held.
We are honored that CF Bank has entrusted us with this historic building, said WCF President Eddie Murphy. Each effort pursued or adopted will be done in the spirit of community advocacy and advancement.
There are seven current trustees of the WCF Attorney Nick Amato; Cressy Belden, a new resident to the area; County Municipal Court Judge Timothy McNicol; Murphy, a retired executive; Peter Russell, a former banker; Linda Weekley, a retired educator; and Robert G. Geno Williamson, a retired executive.
Mr. Tim ODell, CEO and the board of directors of CF Bank were extremely generous in their gift of this property, said Russell, who initiated the negotiations on behalf of the foundation. But thats not all. They also gave us an additional $5,000 to kick off our fundraising for necessary improvements to the property.
The WCF is welcoming donations. Membership starts at $100. Donations can be made through the website, http://www.wellsvillecommunityfoundation.org or through any board member. The WCF is a non-profit, IRS tax exempt organization, founded and incorporated in late 2020 and receiving 501c3 status in 2021. The mission of the organization is to contribute to charitable purposes, or conduct activities, for the common good, general welfare and civic benefits of the Wellsville community and its environs.
Besides the CF Bank building project, the WCF is eager to begin supporting the community through improvement projects with the first being the ongoing business district Clean Streets campaign, which is being led by member Cris McNicol.
Williamson points out nearly everyone on the board grew up in Wellsville.
Eddie (Murphy) went to L.A. and I went to Long Island, Williamson said, and we came back to the Ville. We all want to support the town any way we can, and raise some revenue to spur growth. I think we will be able to accomplish something; how many somethings? We will see.
Consumers Bank of Minerva is assuming ownership of the former CF Bank drive-through in Wellsville, along with the branch bank in Calcutta.
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Former CF Bank building turned over to Wellsville Community Foundation - Morning Journal News
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WATCH: Odds and bets on New England Revolution vs. CF Montreal – USA TODAY Sportsbook Wire
Posted: at 3:27 pm
The New England Revolution look to extend their win streak Sunday against CF Montreal. Sitting at No. 1 in the Eastern Conference and No. 2 in MLS standings, the Revs are coming off a 5-0 rout of Inter Miami CF on the road Wednesday. CF Montreal is 6-4-4 and looks to bounce back after a 1-0 loss to NYCFC earlier in the week.
With both teams having played Wednesday, Sundays matchup will show who can outperform on short rest. Will New England continue to shine at home, or will Montreal pull off an upset on the road vs. the top team in the conference? Watch to find out each teams odds of coming away with a W. CheckBetMGMfor the most updated odds.
BetMGM Sportsbook is offering a RISK-FREE first bet up to $600 (paid in free bets). Promotion available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offer, terms and conditions apply. Place all of your legal, online sports bets at BetMGM Sportsbook. Bet now!
For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Pleasegamble responsibly.
Follow @SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.
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Jesus Madrazo Elected to Board of Directors of CF Industries Holdings, Inc. – Business Wire
Posted: at 3:26 pm
DEERFIELD, Ill.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF) today announced that its Board of Directors has elected Jesus Madrazo, founder and chairman of Kompali Farms, as an independent director for the company. Prior to founding Kompali Farms, Mr. Madrazo served for more than two decades in diverse global leadership roles at Monsanto Company and, more recently, as executive vice president, public affairs and sustainability, for the Crop Science division of Bayer.
The election of Mr. Madrazo brings membership of the CF Industries Holdings, Inc. Board of Directors to twelve. He is expected to stand for re-election by stockholders at the companys 2022 Annual Meeting.
We are pleased to welcome Jesus to the CF Industries Board, said Stephen A. Furbacher, chairman of the board, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. With his strong leadership experience, a global perspective, a passion for sustainability, and a deep background in agriculture serving customers and as a farmer himself, Jesus will serve the Board and our management team greatly. We look forward to his contributions as we work together to create long-term value for our stockholders.
About Jesus MadrazoMr. Madrazo, 51, is the founder and chairman of Kompali Farms, a large wine venture in Mexico renowned for its innovation by uniting technology and sustainability to deliver value to consumers while minimizing environmental impact. Prior to Kompali Farms, he served as a member of the executive leadership team and as executive vice president, public affairs and sustainability, for the Crop Science division of Bayer. Prior to joining Bayer, Madrazo held the role of Vice President, Commercial and Global Supply Chain, at Monsanto, which he first joined in 1999.
Mr. Madrazo holds a legal degree from the Instituto Tecnolgico y de Estudios Superiores de Monterrey in Mexico and received post-legal degrees from Universidad Nacional Autnoma de Mxico (UNAM) and University of Arizona. He also holds an MBA from Cardiff Business School in the United Kingdom. He has been a member of multiple industry coalitions and non-governmental organization boards of directors around the world.
About CF Industries Holdings, Inc.At CF Industries, our mission is to provide clean energy to feed and fuel the world sustainably. With our employees focused on safe and reliable operations, environmental stewardship, and disciplined capital and corporate management, we are on a path to decarbonize our ammonia production network the worlds largest to enable green and blue hydrogen and nitrogen products for energy, fertilizer, emissions abatement and other industrial activities. Our nine manufacturing complexes in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom, an unparalleled storage, transportation and distribution network in North America, and logistics capabilities enabling a global reach underpin our strategy to leverage our unique capabilities to accelerate the worlds transition to clean energy. CF Industries routinely posts investor announcements and additional information on the companys website at http://www.cfindustries.com and encourages those interested in the company to check there frequently.
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Jesus Madrazo Elected to Board of Directors of CF Industries Holdings, Inc. - Business Wire
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Dive into the latest features for VMware Instant Clones – TechTarget
Posted: at 3:26 pm
With the release of Horizon 2006, VMware brings new deployment features to its Instant Clone technology. IT teams can use smart provisioning and ClonePrep to create secure, efficient VMs with vCenter, plus they can use VMware's Guest Customization Engine to launch Instant Clones on Linux.
When admins clone a VM, VMware Horizon creates an exact copy, which means the clone consumes the same amount of data as the original VM. Linked Clones were the first efficiency improvements of the VM cloning process. With Linked Clones, a parent VM is the central disk that connects to child VMs, and it only recognizes and stores changes related to the parent VM.
This reduces the necessary disk space, because for each VM, only the unique disk blocks are stored. The creation process is also fast because instead of cloning the entire disk, each VM starts with an almost empty disk.
This process is efficient on disk, but the hypervisor memory still registers each VM as a full VM -- where every machine must be individually booted and customized -- which takes time and resources. Plus, for each parent VM, first a replica is created to link the VM so that admins can update the parent VM independently from any clones.
VMware introduced a new technology with vSphere 6.0 Update 1 that lets admins implement a cloning technology that uses a parent VM that boots and loads in the memory; any child VMs spawn off from the parent VM.
These VMs are Instant Clones and they do go through a boot cycle because the run process is based on the already booted parent VM. For each machine, only the machine's unique memory pages are placed in the hypervisor's memory. On-disk Instant Clones work similarly to Linked Clones in terms of efficiency and resource savings. The image shows the relationships between the parent and child VMs.
VMware added native support for Instant Clones in VMware Horizon version 7. When they were first introduced, they were only available for Enterprise license customers. Other IT teams still relied on Linked Clones for efficient desktop deployments.
However, VMware decided all customers must switch to Instant Clones and now this feature is available to customers starting with Horizon 2006. To give organizations time to switch, Linked Clones are still available in Horizon 2006's initial release but VMware plans to remove them in Q4 2020.
The requirement to create an Instant Clone desktop is to have a Golden VM prepared with the VMware Horizon Agent with the Instant Clone component enabled. That machine then creates a Linked Clone template. Then, a full clone replica is created on each datastore used for the pool and a parent VM is created per host, per datastore.
The following image shows the objects that the vCenter inventory can create.
Instant Clone implementation can cause a sprawl of replica and parent VMs, depending on the design. There is a replica per datastore, and a parent per host, per datastore in an eight-node cluster. If admins configure four data stores for a pool, there would be four replicas and 32 parent VMs.
If an admin runs only 20 virtual desktops, then the overhead outweighs the benefits. In this scenario, it would be best to use a single datastore because it limits the number of parent VMs to eight. But it is not the most efficient approach with the same 20. With Horizon 2006, parent VMs are only created if admins run more than 12 virtual desktops for an Instant Clone pool per host.
If an admin had eight hosts and 20 virtual desktops, then there would be no more machines beyond the 20 desktops themselves. The disadvantage of this is that Instant Clone deployment time takes longer. They behave like older Linked Clones because they do not share parent VM memory.
Because Instant Clones that are spawned off from a parent are a clone of a running process, they don't require the Windows boot process.
It's very efficient but imposes a new problem because the computer name and domain membership must be changed, which normally requires a reboot. Because of this, VMware introduced a new utility called ClonePrep that takes care of the rename and domain join without a Windows boot process.
This function replaces QuickPrep and Sysprep. There is one important difference between these utilities and that is that only Sysprep can change the Security Identifier (SID) for a machine. It is very rare that a unique SID is necessary for all virtual desktops.
In the rare case that an application requires a unique SID, the only other option would be to use full clones.
This ClonePrep for Windows requirement, which is only available with Horizon, is the reason that it's tricky for admins to deploy their own Instant Clones on vSphere.
Any admin can launch their own Instant Clones through the vSphere API, but then the customization process for Windows is unavailable. This makes efforts to create Instant Clones outside of Horizon that are targeted toward non-Windows OSes.
It is only possible to create Instant Clones through the vSphere API, not directly in the vSphere Client. For admins who can use the SDK from a programming language, there is a set of PowerCLI extensions that contain a cmdlet to create an Instant Clone.
Creating an individual Instant Clone is only 50% of the work, the other half is to customize the OS. For Windows, this is done with Horizon's ClonePrep, but outside of Horizon there are only Linux-based tools. VMware offers a Guest Customization Engine for admins that use Linux.
Once installed, this engine configures the network in the guest VM and allows an admin to run their own required scripts for Instant Clone that support an application or need OS customizations.
There are not only options available for Linux. William Lam, a solution architect at VMware, made a solution to create Instant Clones for nested ESXi hosts. When admins use PowerCLI and shell scripts written for this workflow, it's possible to run many nested ESXi servers with a small memory footprint.
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The de-extinction club: Could we resurrect mammoths, Tassie tigers and dinosaurs? – Sydney Morning Herald
Posted: at 3:26 pm
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He died of the cold. His name was Benjamin, the thylacine, Ben, the last Tasmanian Tiger only we didnt know that when he was captured and put in a zoo in 1933.
In grainy black-and-white footage, Benjamin paces his enclosure, yawning and baring his jaws. He lies down, he sniffs the concrete. At one point (off-screen) he even gives the cameraman a cheeky bite on the bum.
He died three years later, locked out of his backroom shelter one freezing night, just weeks after his species was at last granted protected status in Tasmania following decades of hunting. Eventually, the world came to realise that Benjamin really was the last of Australias great striped marsupial. But, when he died, they saw only an animal too damaged to be preserved in a museum. His body was tossed in a dumpster.
Benjamin, the last thylacine, in 1933 shortly after he arrived at Hobart Zoo.Credit:The Thylacine Museum/Wiki Commons
Benjamins story now haunts ecologist Euan Ritchie as he maps accelerating extinction rates around the world. What a perfect metaphor, he says. Benjamin died of neglect and then we threw him out. These species took millions of years to evolve and now theyre disappearing by the thousands because we dont care enough. Its like going into a museum and lighting all of its precious paintings on fire.
Paleontologist Michael Archer is also haunted by the story. But he has a plan to make sure Benjamin is not the last thylacine. Archer isnt one of Australias infamous Tasmanian Tiger hunters, the ones who trek into the bush convinced they may yet find a survivor of the extinct species. Though he has diligently DNA-tested suspected thylacine excrement sent in by such spotters, Archer says sightings always turn out to be fascinating bullshit.
Instead, he is part of the de-extinction club: a growing group of scientists working to harness genetic engineering and cloning to reach into the past and resurrect extinct animals. Top of the list are the thylacine and the woolly mammoth. Archer and others say the unnatural pace of climate change and habitat destruction mean bringing back key species may now be the only way to stop ecosystems from collapsing. Harvard Universitys renowned geneticist George Church, himself working to return the mammoth to the Arctic tundra, says reviving some species could even help combat the effects of global warming. But others, such as Ritchie, warn that it might put the wild in jeopardy all over again, or pull vital focus from the urgent work underway to save those species we do have left.
So how does de-extinction work? Would a woolly mammoth cooked up in a lab be a real mammoth or just a funny-looking elephant? How do we choose which species get a second chance? And is there any dino DNA left to get us to Jurassic Park?
Credit:Illustration: Matt Davidson
Theres a story humans tell of saving animals in an ark two of each kind to survive a great catastrophe. Today, the great catastrophe is here, at least for wildlife. Humans are burning through the planets resources with an unprecedented appetite, changing the climate, concreting over the wild. Archer says extinction rates are as high as they were during the Cretaceous period, when 75 per cent of species including the dinosaurs were wiped from the map. In half a century, the World Wildlife Fund calculates, we have lost more than half of the planets biodiversity. Weve now entered the planets sixth mass extinction event, Ritchie says. And, ultimately, humans need these ecosystems to survive, too. Theyre our life support system.
Archer argues that conventional conservation efforts arent cutting the mustard and the time has come for extraordinary intervention - an ark of sorts. Normally, nature fills the vacancies from a big extinction event like this. But were not leaving any room for that this time. So were really in uncharted territory. And we have to be smart.
For some scientists, being smart means conserving sperm, egg and tissue samples from endangered species in cryogenically frozen arks, the same way conservationists might keep breeding pairs in captive populations, in case they can one day be returned to the wild. For Archer and others, being smart means using technology not just to slow down extinction but to reverse it.
Of course, unlike Noah, you will need more than two of a species to bring it back. If de-extinction is to mean more than a few curiosities in a lab or a zoo, scientists recommend a gene pool of at least 50 to 1000 animals to start. And you need to make sure that both the species and the wild youre sending them back into can cope with their return. And thats even before we get to the technology itself.
Laura Dern and Sam Neill starred in Jurassic Park, where ancient dino blood recovered from a mosquito helped recreate the prehistoric past.Credit:Fair Use
Its not quite enough to thaw a frozen mammoth from a block of ice. Scientists need either tissue to clone an animal or enough of its DNA, its genetic blueprint, to engineer it. In Jurassic Park, that source code came from a preserved mosquito with a belly full of dinosaur blood. In real life, that wouldnt actually be enough DNA to rebuild a dinosaur (the little molecule is hardy enough to survive at crime scenes but, after about 1.5 billion years, its too decayed to read anymore). Still, carcasses of mammoths and Neanderthals preserved in the icy permafrost at the top of the world, some of them a million years old, have yielded enough of their genetic code for scientists such as Church to rebuild, and edit. Even the mysterious virus behind the deadly Spanish flu of 1918 was recreated in a lab from the frozen lungs of one of its victims, unearthed from an icy grave in Alaska.
No-ones advocating for the de-extinction of viruses, of course, Church says. But theres a lot more possible than we first imagined.
Since the development of better gene-editing tools such as CRISPR (which borrows the precision of ancient bacteria immune systems to find and edit specific genes), Archer says museum collections, too, have become the flavour of the month. Suddenly everyone wants to go in and sample shrivelled toes [for] the DNA.
Scientists are even learning how to wind back the clock on a living animals family tree, searching for dormant genes switched off over their evolution, such as a tail or bigger teeth, to help revive extinct ancestors, gene by gene. Thats how the paleontologist who inspired Michael Crichtons Jurassic Park in the first place, Jack Horner, is hoping to build a dinosaur from its decidedly less scaly descendant: the chicken. Birds are the dinosaurs that escaped extinction, after all.
Genes even older than [those of] the dinosaurs can be brought back, too, Church says. But its limited. Its hard to reconstruct a [species] entire genome that way. Its not like you have a 3D printer where you say, Print out this organism because the rules are way more powerful than that. Theyre more mysterious. And the question is always, why do it?
Horner himself says hed be looking to turn on only a few lost traits in his dino-chicken (the claws, teeth, arms, scales and the tail to keep the fourth-graders happy). Already, a beak has become a snout in chicken embryos. The tail has proven the most difficult but in recent months weve made headway understanding how [it] evolved from dinosaur to bird. Even so, Horners chickenosaurus wouldnt really be an extinct animal. Itd be a new kind of dinosaur-like bird, he says.
An Asian elephant: they are the closest genetic relative of the mammoth.Credit:Getty Images
Church himself has viable DNA of his mammoth but will still need to pair it with the genome of its closest living relative, the Asian elephant, to try to bring it back (he sometimes calls the project the mammophant). Likewise, Ben Novak at the genetic rescue and de-extinction group Revive & Restore has big plans to re-engineer and breed an extinct line of North American bird known as the passenger pigeon using existing flocks (hes even done some experiments on birds at the CSIROs secure lab in Melbourne). And Archer plans to turn to the Tasmanian devil as a template to recreate the Tasmanian tiger, after the thylacines genome was at last sequenced from DNA found in teeth specimens at the Australian Museum.
These animals, if they ever come blinking and growling to life in the lab, will be hybrids of the past and the present. But there is a way to bring back an 100 per cent extinct animal, Archer says, and thats cloning.
More than 20 years after Dolly the sheep became the first mammal cloned from an adult cell, the technique is yet to be perfected, but Archer says its not quite the horror show people imagine. While the sci-fi nightmare of cloned humans never materialised, livestock can be cloned to preserve breeding lines, and celebrities and millionaires fork out upwards of $40,000 to clone beloved pets.
Some conservationists are also turning to the technique to stop inbreeding in dwindling wildlife populations. In late 2020, Novak teamed up with the US Fish and Wildlife Service to clone a critically endangered black-footed ferret from the frozen cells of a ferret who died in 1988. The clone, named Elizabeth Ann, is now a healthy six-month-old who is fond of tearing apart paper bags, barking at anyone who invades her personal space, and has three times more genetic variation in her little body than any other [blackfooted] ferret on the planet, Novak says.
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Of course, to clone an animal, the cell you are using must still be intact alive, in a sense. That makes cloning an extinct species almost impossible. But it has happened. In 2003, scientists in Spain cloned an extinct mountain goat known as the Pyrenean ibex from the frozen tissue of the last of its species, Celia.
To clone, you take the egg of a suitably similar host animal, say, a domestic goat, and suck out the DNA-packed nucleus within, replacing it with that of the animal in line for resurrection, in this case, Celia the ibex. Then you hit it with a Frankstein-esque jolt of electricity to fuse the egg and nucleus, and you implant that new egg in a surrogate mother (another goat). If all goes to plan, the DNA will tell the egg to grow an ibex instead. In this case, a baby ibex did arrive but she lived for just 10 minutes, born with a fatal lung defect scientists say can be typical of the species, clone or not.
The gastric brooding frog, which gave birth to live froglets out of its mouth, went extinct shortly after it was discovered.Credit:Mike Tyler
The experiment was never tried again because by then the Spanish government had released goats into the mountains to replace the ibex, and so the team despaired they were too late. The ibex had lost its habitat. It had effectively gone extinct twice.
Archer hopes there will be a happier ending for the gastric-brooding frog, an extinct Australian species hes been working to clone since a colleague discovered some intact tissue cells miraculously still tucked away at the back of an old university freezer. This frog first caught the eye of medical researchers for its bizarre ability to turn its stomach into a womb and vomit up its babies. Nothing else in nature can do that, Archer says. But before it could be studied, in the mid-1980s, it vanished. Then in 2013, Archers team had a breakthrough. The extinct frogs DNA began to replicate when it was implanted in donor frog eggs. Under the microscope, the team watched the embryos start to develop with growing excitement.
But suddenly it just stopped, Archer says. The team believes the problem lies not with the DNA, but with their technique for cloning amphibians. We hit the same wall when we tried a living frogs DNA. We just need to get one [species] back, one of these [de-extinction] projects over the line, and people will see were not making monsters.
A woolly mammoth. Could its DNA be mixed with that of an Asian elephant to create a mammophant?Credit:Getty Images
OK, so Jurassic Park probably wont happen but what about a Pleistocene Park for the king of that Ice Age, the woolly mammoth? These towering herbivores were hunted to extinction by early humans some 10,000 years ago, the very last of them surviving on Arctic islands until 4000 years ago. But the mammoth is still the closest genetic relative to the now endangered Asian elephant. Even closer than the African elephant, Church says.
He believes resurrecting the mammoths ancient genes could stop the Asian elephant from following it into extinction. Splicing in traits that helped the mammoth thrive in the Arctic could open up crucial new habitat, as land-clearing and poaching closer to the equator increasingly whittle down their numbers. Endangered species are already relocated, with varying success, by conservationists, and their genes managed via breeding programs to protect diversity.
Church estimates that editing in about 40 to 100 mammoth genes, chiefly around cold resistance, will be enough to allow Asian elephants to thrive up north. Separate projects have edited about that number in pigs, for different traits, and Church says they are now breeding whole generations of healthy, engineered animals.
In the case of his mammophant, the team would grow the animal in an artificial womb to avoid any risk to the endangered elephant they would otherwise have to use as a surrogate. That means theres an extra hurdle to scale growing a mammal artificially, all the way from fertilisation to birth, hasnt been done before. Church expects to crack the problem in about five years, in mice first, which have a faster gestation period than elephants (20 days versus 22 months). Then itll probably take another five to adapt it to larger animals and then we can see how it scales up for the mammoth.
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If it works, he already has a place to put the herd. Since the 90s, a group of Russian scientists has been transforming a huge swathe of land in Siberia back to the grasslands that mammoths and other large animals once roamed. It really is called Pleistocene Park and, with the mammoths help, some think it could actually slow climate change. Grasslands can absorb more carbon than forests, and mammoths rip down trees and create this tundra as they go. But, more importantly, their heavy feet also trample snow cover, stopping it from acting as insulation and so allowing the permafrost to be chilled by the icy Arctic winds. In theory, Church says this should help slow its thaw, which eventually threatens to release more carbon and methane than the atmosphere holds today.
But Ritchie questions why you would bring back a mammoth, a creature of the Ice Age, to a rapidly warming world? Youre not going to have herds of thousands of mammoths in time to have a real impact on the permafrost, given how fast its melting now with climate change, he says. Youll just end up with an elephant that cant handle the heat, and probably, a freak show. We have to think very carefully about how the world is going to be when we consider what to bring back.
Benjamin, the last thylacine, at Hobart Zoo in 1933.Credit:David Fleay Trustees
Theres not much point resurrecting a species if it will face the same threat of extinction soon after, like the Pyrenean ibex muscled out of its mountains. And de-extinction proponents stress that animals should fill an empty ecological niche too. When wolves were hunted out of Yellowstone National Park in the United States, elk numbers exploded. With no predator to keep them in check, they tore up the grasses and rivers. Suddenly, the beavers had vanished too. And when they brought the wolves back, 70 years later, the ecosystem was restored, Church says.
Of course, for this more classical rewilding to work with a resurrected animal, it needs to act the way its ancestor did. But not everything is encoded in genes. How will an engineered mammophant, for example, learn to migrate across the Arctic tundra as mammoths once did if theres no parent to show it the way? And what if cutting and pasting together species genomes, in this case of elephant and mammoth or thylacine and Tasmanian devil, interferes with other natural instincts?
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These are problems Archer ponders a lot. You could even have two sets of instructions [in the DNA] that are contradictory, he says. But dont forget that the mammoth is a kind of specialised elephant, so most of the genome is already the same. Tasmanian devils, too, are close enough to thylacines, even though theyre smaller. For his part, he believes well have 99 per cent original behaviours in resurrected species. Most behaviour really is gene-deep in animals, he says, even the strange case of the gastric-brooding frog swallowing its fertilised eggs. No frog teaches another frog to do anything, theyre on their own from the moment theyre a tadpole.
In the case of a resurrected thylacine, there wont be much to compare it to. There are few records of how the marsupial lived, so some ecologists warn not enough is known to bring it back safely. Archer is quick to point out that the thylacine vanished from Tasmania only 90 years ago, and from the mainland at the same time as the devil (which is itself being considered for reintroduction over the Bass Strait) some 3200 years ago. We know what its going to do. Its going to become the king of beasts [in Australia] again.
Ben Novak with Martha, the last passenger pigeon, preserved with another of her species. Her death in 1914 galvanised Americas conservation movement.Credit:Revive&Restore
But consider the case of the passenger pigeon Novak hopes to bring back to North America. One hundred and fifty years ago, they were the most abundant bird on the planet. And, though they numbered as many as six billion, Novak says there were only three or four flocks flying the world at any one time. When they moved from forest to forest, they came in like a hurricane or a forest fire, breaking branches, destroying canopies and forcing those woods into regeneration cycles.
No other birds do this, Novak says. They were ecosystem engineers. Some of the restoration we thought fire did to the landscape weve now shown the birds did. Novak argues the forest needs them back. He and his team have sequenced the pigeons genome and compared it to its closest living relative, the bandtailed pigeon. Of the 25-million-odd genes where they differed, Novak has identified about 30 that could be particularly significant in making a pigeon behave like a passenger pigeon, such as disease resistance and, potentially, extra-social behaviour.
So heres his plan: Novak imagines a carefully controlled release, first on a netted reserve with nesting baskets packed into dense trees, encouraging the birds to breed in colonies and, to fool them into thinking they are already part of a much bigger flock, with speakers blasting pigeon calls and coos. If the birds gang up as planned, they would be fitted with GPS trackers and set free, by the thousand or so.
With enough funding, which Novak ballparks at about $US25 million, he thinks he could create a live passenger pigeon in the lab within seven years using CRISPR. Parallel work focused on breeding shows it would only take a few more years to build up a healthy sustainable population of 10,000 birds or so. That wont be enough to make a dent in forests the way the sky-darkening flocks of the last century did. Still, Novak says, its a start.
But does that mean that monster pigeon swarms will start descending on cities like New York? Historically, Novak says, the birds stayed clear of urban centres as there was not enough food. The bigger their flocks get, the more they will stay remote, near tree cover. And, if things do get out of hand, he says we already know what to do: it was just a few decades of hunting that wiped out those billions of birds in the first place.
Strange insects wreak havoc after they emerge from an unearthed mammoth carcass in the TV sci-fi thriller Fortitude.Credit:Fair Use
But suppose passenger pigeon flocks really are too much for American forests already scarred by record wildfires. Or that bizarre little frog becomes the next cane toad. Some have even wondered whether ancient viruses, entangled in the DNA of long-dead species, could be reawakened (cue the buzzing mammoth carcass in the TV sci-fi thriller Fortitude).
Archer, who himself was the first ecologist to sound the alarm on the danger of cane toads in Australia, says the fossil record can offer important clues as to how an ecosystem will fare with a reintroduced species. When he ventured into the Tasmanian bush with one of the last people to see thylacines in the wild, he found their habitat was broadly unchanged since the 1930s. Peter Ward, in his 90s on the hike, had trapped and hunted the tigers as a boy with his father and brother, back when there was a bounty on the marsupials head (due to now-debunked fears that thylacines were eating livestock). At the end of the track, Wards family hut was still there, just as hed left it, tins of food still on the shelf. Tears came into his eyes, Archer says. He even remembered what they sounded like. He said theyd make this yip yip yip sound as they circled the hut at night. The forest hasnt moved on.
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Novak says ecosystems are not a house of cards. When they have the right pillars our keystone species like predators and pollinators and herds then theyre more like a tower that an earthquake wobbles, but it doesnt collapse.
Besides, Church adds, the larger the animal, the easier a reintroduction is to reverse. Just as feral goats were removed from the Galapagos Islands, rounding up wayward mammoths wouldnt be impossible.
But while thylacines could help with Australias feral cat problem, as dingoes do on the mainland, Archer says its not quite a wolves-in-Yellowstone situation. Theyre not going to be chasing the big animals. In Tasmania, where there are no dingoes, thylacines would be competing for smaller prey with the Tasmanian devil. On the mainland, it might put pressure on the quoll too. These are both endangered species themselves, and so the thylacines impact would have to be closely monitored, Archer says, released as a trial in fenced areas first.
But 99 per cent of the time, with some careful planning, what happens is what you intend. This is the part of conservation we already know how to do well.
Indeed, for all the focus on worst-case scenarios, Novak says he could only find one instance of a conservation reintroduction backfiring, after analysing more than a century of US rewildings: when moving some endangered water birds into a wetland in 1988 caused others in the area to die off.
In America, regulators have now green-lit the worlds first release of a de-extinct species: a chestnut tree. Once the most abundant on the continent, the towering tree has been genetically engineered to survive the imported fungus that wiped it out eight decades ago. Some Native American tribes have even agreed to replant it on native land. Regulating the chestnuts return was no easy task and Novak hopes it will now be a guiding light for future de-extinctions, though he admits mammoths and pigeons are a whole different ball game to trees.
People just fell in love with Elizabeth Ann, Novak says of the cloned blackfooted ferret, pictured here as a baby.
But, just as gene-editing can bring back life, it can also end it. Gene drives hold awesome power to accelerate evolution and take out feral populations by spreading edits that disadvantage or kill a pest species quickly. Scientists have even proposed such an approach to tackle the mouse plague gripping Australias east. Novak says gene drives must be used carefully, but sometimes the risk of doing nothing, whether thats gene drives or de-extinction ... is actually a lot worse.
For scientists eyeing de-extinction projects, there are a lot of vacancies out in the wild in need of filling. Novak says the technologies being developed will benefit existing endangered species too as their gene pools narrow, from the black-footed ferret to the northern white rhino, pictured below. The passenger pigeons and the mammoths, theyre our moon shots, he says. This is never going to replace traditional conservation.
But others worry that critical funding will be taken away from on-the-ground recovery efforts and shunted into pie-in-the-sky de-extinction projects. Australia has some of the worlds highest extinction rates but spends a tenth of what the US does on conservation efforts. De-extinction, if proven to work, will still carry a higher price tag than traditional conservation. At this late hour, Ritchie says, funnelling more funding into proven methods is a safer bet.
A northern white rhino: there are only two females left. Credit:Getty Images
Novak understands the concern but says funding for de-extinction projects so far generally comes from sources not already investing in conservation, such as big tech. Weve tried hard [at Revive & Restore] to get money from new places like biotech companies, even Facebook. Since the not-for-profit was founded by conservationist Stewart Brand in 2012, Novak says about 90 per cent of the funding its raised has been spent on genetic rescue, such as their work with ferrets, not de-extinction. With the birth of Elizabeth Ann, he says those projects are advancing enough that they might begin to compete with traditional conservation. But in conservation, we always fight for funding to re-introduce this species or that one. Its always triage.
Archer, who says money for his own frog project comes primarily from people interested in the technology rather than the frog, stresses that forcing a choice between de-extinction and conservation will crush innovation. In Australia, where life has evolved over the past 50 million years cut off from the other continents, he says the case for de-extinction is especially strong. We have this added responsibility because our animals just dont exist anywhere else. Were a whole distinct branch of the global genome.
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Ritchie recalls the story of an Australian naturalist who took a taxidermied northern quoll into parts of the Northern Territory where it had vanished. A local Aboriginal woman just held it, crying, when she saw it again. It was one of her totemic species, and that pain, that loss, was still so strong.
Archer and Church say de-extinction could help end the doom and gloom of conservation, turning it around from an unwinnable war into something that could capture the publics attention (and perhaps real funding). But will the path there be littered with ghastly mistakes, animals trapped in awful lives because of editing blunders?
Genetic powers the most awesome force the world has ever seen but you wield it like a kid whos found his dads gun, Jeff Goldblums character Dr Ian Malcolm warns in Jurassic Park.
How can we stand in the light of discovery and not act? counters the parks creator John Hammond, played by Richard Attenborough.
Like Benjamin the thylacine, many of the species we have lost in the past century or two also died of the cold of our indifference, our cruelty, our thoughtlessness. But does that mean we have a moral obligation to bring them back, as Brand says, to a world that misses them?
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Four Things to Consider on the Future of AI-enabled Deterrence – Lawfare
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Editors Note: The impact of artificial intelligence on security policy has many dimensions, and one of the most important will be how it shapes deterrence. Artificial intelligence complexifies many of the components of successful deterrence, such as communicating a threat clearly and being prepared for adversary adaptation. Alex Wilner, Casey Babb and Jessica Davis of Carleton University unpack the relationship between artificial intelligence and deterrence, explaining some of the likely challenges and offering suggestions for how to improve deterrence.
Daniel Byman
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Analysts and policymakers alike believe artificial intelligence (AI) may fundamentally reshape security. It is now vital to understand its implications for deterrence and coercion.Over the past three years, with funding from Canadas Department of National Defence through its Innovation for Defence Excellence and Security (IDEaS) program, we undertook extensive research to better understand how AI intersects with traditional deterrence theory and practice in both the physical and digital domains. After dozens of interviews and consultations with subject matter experts in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Europe, Israel and elsewhere, we came away with four key insights about AIs potential effect on deterrence. The implications of these findings pose challenges that states will have to reckon with as they integrate AI into their efforts to deter threats ranging from organized criminal activities, to terrorist and cyberattacks, to nuclear conflict and beyond.
AI Poses a Communications Dilemma
First, deterrence does not usually happen on its own. It is the result of countries actively (and occasionally passively) signaling or communicating their intentions, capabilities and expectations to would-be adversaries. Several experts we spoke with stressed that the prerequisites of communication and signaling pose a particular limitation in applying AI to deterrence. Darek Saunders, with the European Border and Coast Guard Agency, noted that no oneno government department or agencyis making public how they are detecting certain things, so threat actors will not know if it is AI, good intelligence or just bad luck that has put them in jeopardy or forced them to divert their efforts elsewhere. Unless governments are willing to publicly clarify how they use AI to monitor certain forms of behavior, it will be nearly impossible to attribute what, if any, utility AI has had in deterring adversaries. Joe Burton with the New Zealand Institute for Security and Crime Science drew parallels with the Cold War to illustrate the limitations of communication in terms of AI-enabled coercion: Deterrence was effective because we knew what a nuclear explosion looked like. If you cant demonstrate what an AI capability looks like, its not going to have a significant deterrence capability. Furthermore, many (if not all) capabilities related to AI require sensitive data, an asset most governments rarely advertise to friends or foes.
But heres the rub: By better communicating AI capability to strengthen deterrence, countries risk inadvertently enabling an adversary to leverage that awareness to circumvent the capability to avoid detection, capture or defeat. With AI, too much information may diminish deterrence. As Richard Pinch, former strategic adviser for mathematics research at the Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ), explained to us, If we let bad actors know about our capabilities, we would then be educating the adversary on what to watch for.
AI-enabled deterrence is ultimately about finding the right balance between communicating capabilities and safeguarding those capabilities. As Anthony Finkelstein, then-chief scientific adviser for national security in the United Kingdom concluded, You want to ensure your actual systems and technology are not known, at least not technically, while ensuring that the presence of these assets is known. More practical research is needed on developing the AI equivalent of openly testing a nuclear or anti-satellite weapona demonstration of capability and a signaling of force and intent that does not undermine the technology itself.
AI Is Part of a Process
Second, AI is just one piece of a much larger process at work. The purpose of AI-driven security analysis is not chiefly about immediate deterrence but rather about identifying valuable irregularities in adversarial behavior and using that information to inform a broader general deterrence perspective. Using European border security as an example, Dave Palmer, formerly with GCHQ and MI5, explained that its unlikely that AI will deter criminals at the borders on the spot or that you can have a single point in time where the technology will work and you will be able to capture someone doing something they shouldnt be. Instead, it is more likely that AI will allow border security agencies to better identify unlawful behaviour, providing that information downstream to other organizations, agencies or governments that can use it to inform a more comprehensive effort to stop malicious activity. In a nutshell, AI alone might not deter, but AI-enabled information captured within a larger process at work might make some behavior more challenging and less likely to occur.
AI May Lead to Displacement and Adaptation
Third, successfully deterring activities within one domain may invite other unwanted activities within anotherfor example, if AI enables greater deterrence in the maritime domain, it may lead an adversary to pivot elsewhere and prioritize new cyber operations to achieve their objectives. In deterrence theoryespecially as conceived of in criminology and terrorism studiesthis phenomenon is usually understood as displacement (i.e., displacing criminal activities in one domain, or of a particular nature, for another).
Putting this into a larger context, the nature of AIs technological development suggests its application to coercion will invite adversarial adaptation, innovation and mimicry. AI begets AI; new advancements and applications of AI will prompt adversaries to develop technological solutions to counter them. The more sophisticated the adversary, the more sophisticated their AI countermeasures will be, and by association, their countercoercion efforts. State-based adversaries and sophisticated non-state actors, for instance, might manipulate or mislead the technology and data on which these AI-based capabilities rely. As an illustration, when the European Union sought to deter human smuggling via the Mediterranean into Italy and Spain by using AI to increase interdictions, authorities soon realized that smugglers were purposefully sending out misleading cellular data to misinform and manipulate the technology and AI used to track and intercept them.
From the perspective of deterrence theory, adversarial adaptation can be interpreted in different ways. It is a form of success, in that adaptation entails a cost on an adversary and diminishes the feasibility of some activities, therefore augmenting deterrence by denial. But it can also be seen as a failure because adaptation invites greater adversarial sophistication and new types of malicious activity.
How AI Is Used Will Depend on Ethics
Ethics and deterrence do not regularly meet, though a lively debate did emerge during the Cold War as to the morality of nuclear deterrence. AI-enabled deterrence, conversely, might altogether hinge on ethics. Several interviewees discussed concerns about how AI could be used within society. For example, Thorsten Wetzling with the Berlin-based think tank Stiftung Neue Verantwortung suggested that in some instances European countries are approaching AI from entirely different perspectives as a result of their diverging history and strategic culture. Germans appear especially conscious of the potential societal implications of AI, emerging technology, and government reach because of the countrys history of authoritarian rule; as a result, Germany is particularly drawn to regulation and oversight. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Israel tends to be more comfortable using emerging technology and certain forms of AI for national security purposes. Indeed, Israels history of conflict informs its continual push to enhance and improve security and defense. In national security uses, one Israeli interviewee noted, there is little resistance to integrating new technologies like AI.
Other interviewees couched this larger argument as one centered around democracy, rather than strategic culture. Simona Soare with the International Institute for Strategic Studies argued that there are differences in the utility AI has when it comes to deterrence between democracies and non-democracies. One European interviewee noted, for illustration, that any information derived from AI is not simply applied; it is screened through multiple individuals, who determine what to do with the data, and whether or not to take action using it. As AI is further integrated into European security and defense, it is likely that security and intelligence agencies, law enforcement, and militaries will be pressed to justify their use of AI. Ethics may drive that process of justification and, as a result, may figure prominently in AIs use in deterrence and coercion. In China, however, AI has enabled the government to effectively create what a U.S. official has referred to as an open-air prison in Xinjiang province, where the regime has developed, tested and applied a range of innovative technologies to support the countrys discriminatory national surveillance system. The government has leveraged everything from predictive analytics to advanced facial recognition technology designed to identify peoples ethnicities in order to maintain its authoritarian grip. As Ross Andersen argued in the Atlantic in 2020, [President] Xi [Jinping] wants to use artificial intelligence to build a digital system of social control, patrolled by precog algorithms that identify dissenters in real time. Of particular concern to the United States, Canada and other states is the way these technologies have been used to target and oppress Chinas Uighur and other minority populations. Across these examples, the use and utility of AI in deterrence and coercion will be partially informed by the degree to which ethics and norms play a role.
The Future of Deterrence
The concept of deterrence is flexible and has responded to shifting geopolitical realities and emerging technologies. This evolution has taken place within distinct waves of scholarship; a fifth wave is now emerging, with AI (and other technologies) a prevailing feature. In practice, new and concrete applications of deterrence usually follow advancements in scholarship. Lessons drawn from the emerging empirical study of AI-enabled deterrence need to be appropriately applied and integrated into strategy, doctrine and policy. Much still needs to be done. For the United States, AI capabilities need to be translated into a larger process of coercion by way of signaling both technological capacity and political intent that avoids adversarial adaptation but also meets the diverging ethical requirements of U.S. allies. No small feat. However, a failure to think creatively about how best to leverage AI toward deterrence across the domains of warfare, cybersecurity and national security more broadly leaves the United States vulnerable to novel and surprising innovations in coercion introduced by challengers and adversaries. The geopolitics of AI includes a deterrence dimension.
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Four Things to Consider on the Future of AI-enabled Deterrence - Lawfare
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