Monthly Archives: March 2021

March 03, 2021

Does the U.S. economy need more help right now, and is the latest stimulus package well designed for the moment? Plus, Brexit has fully arrived what happens next?

Felix, Rawi, and Mihir discuss the new $1.9 trillion stimulus package in the U.S. and the departure of the UK from the European Union.

Each week, the hosts give their recommendations for reading, watching, and more. Here are This Weeks Picks:

You can visit our website atHarvardAfterHours.com. You can email your comments and ideas for future episodes to:harvardafterhours@gmail.com. You can follow Youngme, Mihir, Rebecca, and Rawi on Twitter at: @YoungmeMoon, @DesaiMihirA, @RebeccaReCap, and @RawiAbdelal.

HBR Presents is a network of podcasts curated by HBR editors, bringing you the best business ideas from the leading minds in management. The views and opinions expressed are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Harvard Business Review or its affiliates.

Originally posted here:

The New US Stimulus Package and the Meaning of Brexit - Harvard Business Review

Nigel Farage has announced he is quitting active politics after 30 years becausehe achieved his lifetime goal of securingBritains exit from the European Union.

It is the third time he has announced his departure from the frontline,but this time he insisted it would be permanentas Brexit wont be reversed.

He declared in amessage onTwitter: Weve done it, weve achieved it. For me, I feel my political career, in the sense of actively leading a political party, fighting election campaigns I think nows the moment to say I have done it.

The i politics newsletter cut through the noise

MrFarage, who is 56, said Brexit had been his lifes work and had taken over the best part of three decades but it was now time for a change.

However, headded that he would not be going away as he wantedtouse his social media reach tocampaign againstthe woke agenda andto highlight Chinasincreasing power and influencein Britain.

MrFarage first became active inUkipin 1992whenit was a fringe pressure group.As it grew steadily,he went on tolead it three times fora combined total of nine years.

He quit to form the Brexit Party, which topped thepolls in the 2019 European elections held in the wake of Theresa Mays failure to win parliamentary backing for her withdrawal agreement with the EuropeanUnion.

Rebranded Reform UK last year, it has been critical of the lengthy lockdowns imposed by the Government to combat the Covid pandemic.He is now handing over the partys leadership to its chairman, Richard Tice.

MrFarage told The Sunday Telegraph:Theres no going back Brexit is done. That wont be reversed. I know Ive come back once or twice when people thought Id gone, but this is it. Its done. Its over.

He said he didnt want to play golf four times a week followed by half a pint of bitter, but intended to campaign against Chinas influence in the UK and the so-called woke agenda.

He said:I see our communities being divided more than ever by this agenda. And Im very worried about it. I want to fight all those things.

I have built up over these years quite a considerable social media platform. Ive got reach.SoI want to go on influencing the debate. I want to go on changing debate. But I can do that without going out and fighting elections.

See more here:

Nigel Farage to quit active politics after 30 years because Brexit wont be reversed - iNews

The Cabinet Office run by Michael Gove has been officially reprimanded by the UK Statistics Authority for using unpublished and unverifiable data in an attempt to deny that Brexit had caused a massive fall in volumes of trade through British ports.

The criticism follows a story in the Observer on 7 February that cited a survey by the Road Haulage Association (RHA) of its international members showing export volumes had dropped by a staggering 68% in January through British ports and the Channel Tunnel.

The RHA wrote to Gove at the time saying: Intelligence that we are collecting on an ongoing basis from international hauliers suggests that loads to the EU have reduced by as much as 68%, which can also be evidenced by the increased number of empty trailers which are not currently considered in the statistics.

The RHA also accused Gove of failing to heed its warnings that trade would be damaged unless there was a dramatic increase in the number of customs officials.

The Cabinet Office had responded to the Observers story with a point-by-point rebuttal of the RHAs claims on its website, stating that inbound and outbound flows (across all UK ports) were close to normal, at 95% outbound and 96% inbound, in spite of the impact of Covid lockdowns on trade.

But in a letter to Richard Laux, chief statistician at the Cabinet Office, sent on Friday following an investigation Ed Humpherson, director general for regulation at the Statistics Authority, expressed serious concerns at the way the department had used data to rebut the RHAs information.

The letter said the Cabinet Offices strong rebuttal contained claims based on unpublished data, and as such these figures cannot be verified. It is our expectation that any data used publicly by government should be published in an accessible form, with appropriate explanations of context and sources.

While Humpherson suggested that the Cabinet Office has given assurances that it would provide more information about where its information came from, he added: The Cabinet Office should consider how, in future, it can be more transparent through the release of data.

For example, it should ensure that where there is a significant reason to use unpublished management information in a public statement, the underlying data is published before or at the same time as the public statement. If there is continued or anticipated public interest in the data, it should consider whether there is need for a new ad hoc or regular statistical release.

The authority, which is independent of ministers, has a statutory objective to safeguard the production and dissemination of statistics by government. Its terms of reference state that it will intervene (raise concerns) if official statistics in a document or statement are presented in such a way that, in the authoritys opinion, they are liable to mislead the public or undermine the integrity of official statistics.

Rachel Reeves, shadow minister for the Cabinet Office, said: Our British businesses are under huge strain from the pandemic and reams of costly new red tape as a result of the governments deal with the EU the government should spend less time arguing with our businesses and spinning against them, and more time working with them to help.

Trade experts and industry sources said ministers had deliberately tried to deny there was a serious fall-off in trade caused by Brexit by claiming that flows of lorries had been largely unaffected, rather than the volume of goods contained in them.

The RHA had made clear, however, that it was referring to the volume of goods carried, and stressed that very high numbers of lorries which travelled to and from the UK were returning to the continent empty because of problems faced by UK exporters as a result of post-Brexit rules and regulations. Industry sources said last night that while there had been an improvement since January, there was evidence that the number of lorries returning empty to the EU was still around 50%.

The first official statistics on the level of trade to and from the EU since 1 January are due to be published later this month.

Read more from the original source:

UK Statistics Authority rebukes Gove over Brexit figures - The Guardian

For most European Christian Democrats, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban was a boogeyman who steadily eroded democracy in his country.

This week, Orban pulled his Fidesz party from the biggest political group in the European Parliament, the European People's Party (EPP), avoiding an all-but-certain expulsion after changes to its internal rules.

And Manfred Weber, the EPP chair, was unequivocal on who was responsible, placing the blame at Orban's doorstep.

"It is about rule of law, it is about the thing going on in Hungary, that is the substance of the problem, and the problem is the provocative approach against Europe and some of the statements of Viktor Orbn," Weber explained to reporters in the Parliament Wednesday.

"We are the bridge builders, but on the other side of the bridge nobody was there to use this bridge-building approach."

The Fidesz's EPP membership shielded Orban for a long time from harsher punishment for his so-called democratic backsliding.

But the self-inflicted isolation from his powerful allies could cost Hungary desperately-needed EU coronavirus recovery stimulus funds, which have been tied to adherence with the rule of law.

The future of these stimulus funds was also at the centre of a debate in Brussels this week for other reasons.

The European Commission extended the coronavirus exemption of the EU's fiscal rules in order to weather the brutal economic shock of the pandemic, meaning uncapped borrowing will continue to be allowed through this year and the next.

"Today the Commission states clearly that pulling back support too quickly would be a policy mistake," Paolo Gentiloni, the European Commissioner for Economy told Euronews on Wednesday.

"The best way to secure public debt sustainability, the best way to reduce the risk of scaring and economic divergence, is now to support the recovery."

The Commission announced further measures this week, laying out its plans to force companies to publish the wages of employees to help close the gender pay gap.

The Commissioner in charge of the proposals, Helena Dalli, said that transparency is key in achieving equality between men and women in the workplace

"The pay transparency proposal is a major step toward the enforcement of the principle of equal pay for equal work or work of equal value between women and men," Dalli said.

And just when everyone thought they had seen the back of it, Brexit came back.

The European Parliament delayed deciding a date for the vote to approve the Brexit trade deal with the UK after London "violated" the terms of the agreement.

The institution's most senior MEPs agreed to postpone the decision until they meet next week, after the UK unilaterally announced a grace period on border checks on agri-food products entering Northern Ireland, a move which has angered Brussels.

Continued here:

Europe's week: Orban leaves the EPP, as Brexit makes a dramatic return - Euronews

As an instrument of foreign policy, economic sanctions have become the preferred choice for many countries to exercise their political will over other nation states. Their use has increased over the past 20 years, which is not surprising given the lessons learnt from various military interventions in the Middle East.

The imposition of unilateral sanctions by one country over another usually has only a limited effect in achieving foreign policy goals. Although sanctions invariably take time to have a measurable impact that might change behaviour, they tend to be much more effective when implemented by a number of countries acting simultaneously in a coordinated way. Such collective efforts can then restrict the sanctioned country in terms of its capacity to sell goods and commodities or to procure certain goods and services both of which can encourage changes in behaviour.

The EU currently has over 40 different sanctions regimes in place. According to the European Commission, restrictive measures (sanctions) are an essential tool in the EUs common foreign and security policy (CFSP), through which the EU can intervene where necessary to prevent conflict, or respond to emerging or current crises. The Commission states that in spite of their colloquial name sanctions, EU restrictive measures are not punitive. They are intended to bring about a change in policy or activity by targeting non-EU countries, as well as entities and individuals, responsible for the malign behaviour at stake.

EU sanctions can target governments of non-EU countries because of their policies, as well as companies, groups or organisations such as terrorists, or individuals supporting the targeted policies through the following measures: arms embargoes, restrictions on admission (travel bans), asset freezes, and other economic measures such as restrictions on imports and exports.

Prior to Brexit, the United Kingdom was a key player in the CFSP, together with France and Germany, in formulating sanctions policies at an EU-wide level. Once adopted by the European Council, these policies applied across all EU member states.

The close relationship which the UK has long enjoyed with the United States, both historically and currently the most prominent implementer of sanctions, also put the UK in an ideal position to co-ordinate US and EU sanctions policy at a European Level.

But post Brexit, things have changed and will continue to do so. Despite the trade deal agreed last December, considerable uncertainty remains in several areas concerning Britains future relationship with the EU. Certainty does, however, exist in relation to the EU sanctions regime: it no longer directly applies to the UK, which is now free to formulate and implement its own sanctions policies under powers granted by the Sanctions and Anti-Money Laundering Act 2018 (SAMLA). According to the UK government, this legislation has enabled us to transition existing EU regimes into UK law and establish UK autonomous regimes.

So how might autonomy over sanctions policy look in practice? Now a lone wolf on the world stage, it will be interesting to see if the UK continues to shadow EU sanctions policies (to which it can no longer contribute as a member of the EU), or intentionally diverges from them. The countries which are subject to sanctions may not be too concerned about them being imposed by the UK acting alone, given the size and scale of its economy. Whereas sanctions imposed by much bigger economies, such as the EU and US, would have much greater clout. There is, therefore, a question mark over whether the UK will be able to continue to exercise its soft power in world politics, just as it did as a big player in the European Union. Some commentators suggest that the UKs role will diminish as it becomes a small global player, which will be forced to follow the lead of bigger actors such as the US or the EU.

There is uncertainty too over the issue of how much the UK will still be able to bear fruit from acting as an interlocutor between the US and EU. It will be interesting to see whether the UK is able to maintain this role or is side-lined by the US and the EU.

Ahead of Brexit, the UK government outlined an ambitious vision of its future sanctions policy. Speaking about the use of sanctions in human rights abuses, foreign secretary Dominic Raab said that as part of the UKs role as a good global citizen, it would use its sanctions powers against those who targeted journalists, whistle-blowers and human rights campaigners.

It seems unlikely that UK sanctions will operate in isolation from other sanctions regimes since such an independent sanctions policy would be isolationist and unproductive. Arguably, it is self-evident that future UK sanctions regimes will have much greater legitimacy if they are widely implemented by a broad coalition of countries. Such a united approach would obviously have the greatest impact on the intended targets.

The US may see things through a slightly different prism. As with a range of other matters - economic, political and security-related - it may look instead towards France, Germany, or both, rather than the UK, to ensure that its foreign policy is coordinated with that of the European Union. Only time will tell just how Brexit will impact the UKs wider role in world politics, especially as the impact of China and India becomes ever more prevalent.

Kartik Mittal is partner at Zaiwalla & Co

See the rest here:

Brexit: Exercise of soft power by the UK through sanctions - Law Gazette

NewsPoliticsDouglas Ross has insisted the younger generation are already seeing the benefits of Brexit.

Friday, 5th March 2021, 12:09 pm

The Scottish Conservative leader went against comments from his colleague Andrew Bowie, who warned people under 30 will not "reap the benefits" of Brexit.

Asked about them at a Bright Blue event on Friday, Mr Ross admitted he was a reluctant remainer, but that leaving the EU had helped with tariffs and vaccines.

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He said: This generation are already seeing the benefit of Brexit.

The 50,000 people employed directly or indirectly in the Scottish whisky industry are celebrating today because they can see these tariffs being suspended, and young people here in Scotland and right across the UK are seeing the benefits of our vaccination programme, which isnt being replicated in Europe, and that will see our freedoms being returned far quicker.

"We are already seeing the benefits of being an independent country outside the EU.

Earlier this week appearing on BBC Debate Night, Mr Bowie, the West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine MP, had declined to give a timeframe for when the benefits would appear.

He said: We are hoping very much in the near future to allow students from this country to be able to study and enjoy life abroad, but am I going to sit here and say Brexit is perfect and that your generation is going to reap the benefits?

No, Im not, because youre not, frankly, at the minute. And I can see that weve got work to do.

Mr Ross was also challenged on a lack of support for Scotland's fishing communities in this week's UK Budget.

The Moray MP had written to the Chancellor urging an increase to the Brexit fishing fund as part of his eight-point plan, but his pleas fell on deaf ears.

He explained: "I dont just ask for things I know I am going to get.

"Our coastal communities and fishing communities need our support. The Brexit deal did not deliver for them in the way they would have hoped.

There have been added problems in terms of paperwork and bureaucracy that need to be resolved.

"I am pretty sure the Chancellor is looking at how that support is being spent and we might have to come back to this."

The Scottish Conservatives leader also admitted he "deeply regrets" comments he made about gypsy travellers earlier in his career.

Mr Ross was heavily criticised in 2017 when he was asked what his priority would be if he was prime minister for a day.

His answer was "tougher enforcement against gypsy travellers".

Now apologising, he said: I was asked when I was a new MP what would be my number one priority if I was prime minister for a day.

"And there are a multiple of different, better answers than one I gave about a local issue here on enforcement against gypsy travellers that's something that still comes up.

"It was on my Twitter feed the other day.

"I deeply regret my answer to that question and the way it was interpreted.

"I said at the time it was a big local issue and it continues to be a big issue here in Moray every summer. But it's not something I should have answered as being my top priority if I had one day as prime minister."

See the original post:

Douglas Ross insists younger generation 'already seeing benefits of Brexit' - The Scotsman

The revelation came from Conservative Teesside mayor Ben Houchen after Chancellor Rishi Sunak named his region as the biggest of the eight new freeports in England in last weeks budget. Mr Houchen told the Sunday Express: This is a demonstration of why people in Teesside voted for Brexit. On average across the whole of the region 750,000 people, 67 percent voted to leave the EU.

We could not have had a freeport policy without Brexit. You cannot have proper freeports in the EU.

The announcement is expected in the next few weeks but is the fruition of 8 months of talks but was dependent on the region being allowed to set up a freeport.

It means that around 18,000 new jobs will be created in an area which was badly hit by the closure of the steel works a few weeks ago.

Mr Houchen said: Freeports are a bit wonky and geeky but ultimately what it delivers is absolutely the definition of levelling up.

When it comes to places like Teeside it is absolutely essential to the levelling up agenda because what freeports deliver are real tangible things like factories and processes that people can physically see and touch which wouldnt have been done without a Conservative government and without us delivering Brexit.

Freeports create jobs. The more jobs you have, the more money people have in their pockets, the more opportunities you create.

It also means that instead of suffering a brain drain Teeside will be able to attract the brightest and best in terms of innovative technology such as carbon capture.

The way Rishi Sunak has established the UK freeport policy is that the tax incentives are almost solely around employment incentives and capital cost investment building incentives, Mr Houchen explained.

You look at things like the buildings and structures tax relief, the capital allowances, the abolition of employers national insurance contributions, business rates relief, that is about capital incentives to major businesses to bring large scale manufacturing processes that are often labour intensive into the UK.

This is not about fine art or hoarding bottles of wine, its about real jobs for real people in the regions across the UK.

The new freeport will cover the former steel work site, the port of Hartlepool right the way across up the river to Darlington and Teeside airport.

Another 800 jobs will be created in Teesside with the Treasury relocating part of its department there.

The massive investments were only made possible by Mr Houchens decision to take Teesside airport into public ownership to save it from being redeveloped for housing.

It now has twice daily flights between Heathrow and a London City connection.

Mr Houchen said: Transport connections are essential if you want to start landing things like big government departments and big international private investment.

Are they going to invest in an area which it is difficult for them to connect back from? Of course not but with an airport in the area it makes it easier for them to make that decision.

Mr Sunak travelled to Teesside on Thursday the day after his Budget to hail the progress in the region under its Tory mayor who is up for election this year.

A Treasury source said: Longer term things like freeports are an example of us creating up zones where things are easier and cheaper both on tax cuts and regulation planning which will hopefully drive growth investment and kind of an example of doing regeneration in a Conservative and free enterprise oriented way.

Weve seen you know great excitement about that and areas like Teesside, as the Chancellor saw for himself when he visited on Thursday, have had a complete lift.

Read more from the original source:

Major EU European manufacturer to relocate to Teeside as result of Brexit and freeports - Daily Express

German exports to the UK plunged by almost a third in January, as the downward trend since Brexit continues to gather pace. A preliminary estimate published this week by the Federal Statistics Office reveals that the UKs divorce from the EU, combined with coronavirus, helped trigger a nearly 30 percent slump in German exports to Britain in the first month of the year. That was nearly double the 15.5 percent decline in 2020, which was the biggest annual drop since the financial crisis in 2009, according to the agency.

The new figures are not the only thing Mrs Merkel has to worry about, though, as a recent survey published by FAZ also reveals German companies spent 2.2 percent less on innovation last year than in 2019.

According to the head of Oxford-based think-tank Euro Intelligence Wolfgang Munchau, this report is significant as spending on innovation is a barometer for future productivity growth.

He explained: "FAZ says one of the factors is Brexit, which has added to the uncertainties of the pandemic. Another factor which is not reflected in the data is a reduced efficiency of the investments.

"Our suspicion is that the growing gap in digital infrastructure is a factor.

"What the ZEW data show is that large companies kept investing. Virtually all of the decline is due to small and medium sized companies, where investments in innovation fell by nine percent."

Mr Munchau noted the rise in innovation investments from 2.4 percent of GDP in 2005 to 3.1 percent in 2019 was one of the engines behind Germany's strong economic performance.

However, one-third of that was due to the car industry alone another indicator of Germany's vulnerability to that one sector.

He concluded: "Another problem is the lack of digital investments. Germany's tendency to double down on analogue technologies, like diesel cars, and the failure to invest in digital technologies is showing through in the data.

"Just as it took a long time for the misallocation to affect investments and productivity growth, it will take a long time for catch-up investments in digital technologies to reverse.

"What we expect to see in Germany is a period of relative economic decline ahead - relative to the world, but also relative to other countries in the eurozone."

The survey and the trade slump might have raised alarm bells in the EU, as according to German MEP Gunnar Beck the bloc will start crumbling when German money runs out.

He told Express.co.uk: "EU leaders absolutely want European integration... why?

"It's a mystery to me because, so far, they haven't been successful.

"The European Community was relatively successful but things started going down the drain with the single currency and so on.

"The economic performance of the last 25 years has been abysmal."

JUST IN:Barclays urges City of London to focus on US and Asia instead of EU

"This whole idea of Merkel's austerity is very unconvincing.

"She is the most expensive Chancellor in German history."

He added: "She is obviously paying German money left, right and centre.

"What is happening now is that the whole of Europe is becoming dependent on Germany and to a less extent Northern European money.

"Southern Europe appears to stand no chance at regaining competitiveness.

"It is not a very healthy state of affairs."

At the end of July, EU leaders struck a deal on a huge coronavirus recovery package after days of bitter talks.

The 750billion (668billion) coronavirus fund, spearheaded by France and Germany, will be used as loans and grants to the countries hit hardest by the virus.

The remaining money represents the EU budget for the next seven years.

See the original post:

EU tipped for catastrophic breakup as Brexit hits German exports to UK - Daily Express

An immigration crisis is facing Britain now that Brexit reality is hitting

I read Ian Dunts column on EU citizensand I agree that there is cause for concern, because since the pandemic the issue appears to have gone under the radar, with little ongoing publicity about the fact that the finishing line to gain full or pre-settled status is June.

Surely there will not be a dire repetition of the Windrush scandal, when men and women were hounded for their perceived lack of status? This is a minefield and an immigration crisis waiting to happen.

Politicians of all parties need to take this up urgently or there will be a catastrophe and yet another hostile environment mark 2, and our EU citizens who have benefitted this country enormously, many as key workers in the NHS and in the front line of this pandemic, may find themselves referred to on the side of iniquitous and deplorable vans.Judith A. Daniels, Great Yarmouth

According to James Ball Im one of those sad saps who threw away good money on the useless cause of trying to hold Matt Hancock to his legal responsibilities by supporting the Good Law Project.

With the governments majority as unassailable as it is, a largely right wing press that frankly doesnt give a damn, the courts are the only and realistic hope for speaking truth unto power. The article was no more than a counsel of despair, even ending with the writers hollow call, Surely its time for a change of tactics.

A fine invitation for which he never even attempted a proposal.

In the words of the Jack Nicholson character in One Flew Over the Cuckoos Nest as he is carted off for treatment for resisting the system: At least I tried dammit, Chief. I tried. That message got through and spurred the Chief on to his own successful challenge.Stephen Hanvey, Winchester

Have your say by emailing theneweuropean@archant.co.uk. Our deadline for letters is Tuesday at 9am for inclusion in Thursdays edition. Please be concise - letters over five paragraphs long may be edited before printing.

See original here:

Windrush 2 is looming as Brexit reality bites - The New European