Monthly Archives: September 2020

Visitation on the rise in September but Macau recovery slower than other jurisdictions – Inside Asian Gaming

Posted: September 18, 2020 at 1:02 am

The recovery of Macaus gaming industry has proven to be slower than levels seen in other jurisdictions across Asia-Pacific, despite some signs of improvement over the first two weeks of September.

According to a Monday note from investment bank JP Morgan, gross gaming revenue over the past week reached approximately MOP$115 million per day an improvement upon MOP$80 million per day in the first week of September and three times higher than the MOP$40 million per day of July and August.

Visitation has also reached about 15,000 arrivals per day compared with 2,500 through July and less than 8,000 in August.

However, JP Morgan analysts DS Kim, Derek Choi and Jeremy An noted this was still below earlier expectations that daily GGR would have reached closer to MOP$200 million per day by now after IVS visas were reinstated for the entirety of Guangdong Province from 26 August.

The pace seems slower than what weve seen in other re-opened jurisdictions (such as Australia, Korea or US regionals, where local demand recovered to 70-100%+ of pre-COVID-19 levels in a matter of a months), they said, adding that the numbers suggest Guangdong has recovered to around 40% of its daily visitor numbers from 2019.

The slower recovery is attributed to, Weak VIP amidst increased scrutiny on capital-flow and junket/agents some practical issues that hinder visitations, such as slower visa processing (due to yet-to-reopen self-service kiosks) or COVID-19 testing; and seemingly less-than-strong confidence in travelling overseas.

Wed like to think that these are rather transitory and can be resolved gradually in the coming months, but we admit the visibility is low.

The analysts estimate September GGR to reach between 15% and 20% of last years level in September rising to between 40% and 50% in October, aided by the 1 October Golden Week holiday.

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Macau Racing Tips: The Honan 1510 Metres Sand 2020-09-19 | Sat | 14:00 – Macau Daily Times

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The new MJC racing season kicks off this Saturday with six sand races, I would like to pick for a runner that has already shown improvement in his races and with the off season preps that aim for an early season success coming through on the season opening. The runner is Modena Best (pictured) from Wayne Smiths yard, he will get his chance in this particular sand race. Wayne Smith has sat on him in his track work and he is very please with Modena Bests response in yesterday work out. Modena Best is a consistent sand performer his last race on 1800 metres turf was messy and raced wide without cover throughout, this time he has W.L Ho on the plate, hopefully through his good pair of hands, Modena Best will get good cover from the early stages of the race, and then find a good tactical position in the last 200 metres with the good stamina that he inherited from Medaglia DOro and fire on. Wayne Smith is in good form towards the end of last season lets all hope that Modena Best will fly the flag early for Waynes yard this Saturday. Davy Chiu

Race 5 Horse no. 9 Modena BestWin & Place

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Youth space for ‘education of love for the motherland’ due to open in December – Macau Business

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A new youth space on the education of Love for the Motherland and for Macau should open in the territory in December, authorities announced.

The space, located at MacausTransfer of Sovereignty Museum, will have several educational media on patriotic matters, the Education and Youth Bureau (DSEJ) Director, Lou Pak Sang, explained yesterday.

During a meeting with the media, Lou Pak Sang also said that the space will cost MOP2.5 million and will feature videos and materials on Chinese culture and history provided by the department.

Its facilities will also include a thematic interactive teaching area, a Chinese culture room, a country and Macau history corridor and a multimedia room with patriotic teaching materials, which will showcase Chinese history and culture over five thousand years, the successes of the development of China, the history of Macau and patriotic education, among other elements, using diversified forms, such as the recreation of real objects and multimedia, among others, he said.

On the same occasion, the authorities said that they are preparing a new public consultation on Medium and long-term planning for non-higher education (2021-2030) and Macau Youth Policy (2021-2030) and with the support of experts from Taiwan and Hong Kong, around 100 youth associations, among other local authorities.

Inheriting the love of the motherland Macau, physical and mental virtue, improving capacities, harmony and participation in society will be the themes highlighted in this plan, he detailed.

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Fashion festival to be themed Green Sustainability – Macau Daily Times

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The Macao Fashion Festival 2020 will be held from October 22 to 24 at the Cotai Expo Hall A with the theme Green Sustainability.Covering an area of 1,116 square meters, the upcoming show will feature a total of 31 brands, the majority of which are from Macau. A number of the brands are from Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Hong Kong.According to the organizers of the show, this years festival aims to promote sustainable design to help reduce the negative impact of the fashion industry on the environment.Unlike last year, when international brands and designers participated in the event, this year the event will only feature designers from neighboring regions due to the travel and entry restrictions associated with Covid-19.Organizers announced in a meeting held yesterday that the festival will highlight the Boutique Gallery, inviting local fashion designers and creative stores to retail their products on the site.These products include accessories, wallets and watches, among others that are all Made-in-Macau items.For these three days, a 30-minute fashion tour will be held at the event daily.The opening ceremony will feature a fashion parade from designers from Shenzhen, Hong Kong, Guangzhou and Macau.Representing Shenzhen is designer Sun Gui Tian, who is the founder of Yizhou and was awarded the Shenzhen Fashion Grand Award at Shenzhen Fashion Week.Jeania Tang, from Guangzhou, will present some of her gold-threaded embroidered Chinese wedding gown pieces, while Janko Lam, from Hong Kong, will present her brand, which intertwines Chinese aesthetics with modern design elements informed by the concept of sustainability and durability.Meanwhile, local designer Isabella Choi is set to feature her brand, Nega C. Fashion, the design concept of which focuses on living a casual life that incorporate elements of street culture.Another local representative is Axoxyxoxs, a long-time recipient of the governments Subsidy Programme for Fashion Design on Sample Making.Last year, the festival attracted a total of 55 designers and fashion brands from different regions.Fifteen local brands had fashion displays, while six professional fashion shows were organized to show a total of 383 fashion pieces.This year, despite the social distancing measures urged by the government, organizers of the event are expecting a similar number of attendees.The festival is co-organized by the Macau Productivity and Technology Transfer Center (CPTTM) and the Macao Trade and Investment Promotion Institute.The Macau Daily Timesis an officialmedia partner of the event.

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US charges citizen with providing support to IS – Macau Business

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Prosecutors in Washington have charged a US citizen for joining the so-called Islamic State group in Syria, according to a statement from the Justice Department Wednesday.

The charges allege that Lirim Sylejmani conspired to provide and provided material support to IS, which the United States has classified as a terrorist organization, between 2015 and 2019.

The department also claimed he received military training from the self-styled caliphate.

The defendant is a U.S. citizen who abandoned the country that welcomed him to join ISIS in Syria, acting US Attorney Sherwin said in the statement of Sylejmani, who was born in Kosovo.He will now be held accountable for his actions in an American courtroom.

Sylejmani was captured by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) last year, according to the statement, before facing investigation by the FBIs Washington Field Office Joint Terrorism Task Force.

The question of how to handle captured foreign IS fighters has vexed Western governments, with the US vying for European countries to repatriate and try their own citizens.

Nations such as France and Britain reject the return of battle-hardened supporters of the ultra-violent IS group, which has claimed responsibility for a slew of grisly attacks against civilians.

Some European governments, including Britain, have revoked the citizenship of a number of citizens over alleged IS links.

But the US has pushed back against these approaches.

Leaving them in the desert is not an effective solution. It makes it more likely theyre going to find their way back to the battlefield, and accepting that risk is not being tough on terrorism, the US State Departments counterterrorism coordinator Nathan Sales told a meeting in Brussels last year.

Plus, it could put an undue burden on Middle Eastern countries already dealing with their own former IS-fighter citizens, according to the US.

The EU-backed Genocide Network this spring advocated that returning IS foreign fighters should be charged with war crimes under international law such as genocide or crimes against humanity in addition to whatever terrorism charges they may face at home.

As of May, some 2,000 fighters were still detained by Syrian forces and another 1,000 were in detention in Iraq, many of them European citizens mainly from France, Britain and Germany.

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Quantum and classical computers handle time differently. What does that mean for AI? – The Next Web

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As humans, we take time for granted. Were born into an innate understanding of the passage of events because its essential to our survival. But AI suffers from no such congenital condition. Robots do not understand the concept of time.

State of the art AI systems only understand time as an implicit construct (we program it to output time relevant to a clock) or as an explicit representation of mathematics (we use the time it takes to perform certain calculations to instruct its understanding of the passage of events). But an AI has no way of understanding the concept of time itself as we do.

Time doesnt exist in our classical reality in a physical, tangible form. We can check our watch or look at the sun or try and remember how long its been since we last ate, but those are all just measurements. The actual passage of time, in the physics sense, is less proven.

In fact, scientists have proven that times arrow a bedrock concept related to the classical view of time doesnt really work on quantum computers. Classical physics suffers from a concept called causal asymmetry. Basically, if you throw a bunch of confetti in the air and take a picture when each piece is at its apex, itll be easier for a classical computer to determine what happens next (where the confetti is going) than what happened before (what direction the confetti would travel in going backwards through time).

Quantum computers can perform both calculations with equal ease, thus indicating they do not suffer causal asymmetry. Times arrow is only relevant to classical systems of which the human mind appears to be, though our brains are almost certainly quantum constructs.

Where things get most interesting is if you consider the addition of artificial intelligence into the mix. As mentioned previously, AI doesnt have a classical or quantum understanding of time: time is irrelevant to a machine.

But experts such as Gary Marcus and Ernest Davis believe an understanding of time is essential to the future of AI, especially as it relates to human-level artificial general intelligence (AGI). The duo penned an op-ed for the New York Times where they stated:

In particular, we need to stop building computer systems that merely get better and better at detecting statistical patterns in data sets often using an approach known as deep learning and start building computer systems that from the moment of their assembly innately grasp three basic concepts: time, space and causality.

While the statement is intended as a sweeping indictment on relying on bare bones deep learning systems and brute force to achieve AGI, it serves as a bit of a litmus test as to where the computer science community is at when it comes to AI .

Currently, were building classical AI systems with the hopes theyll one day be robust enough to mimic the human mind. This is a technology endeavor, meaning computer experts are continuously pushing the limits of what modern hardware and software can do.

The problem with this approach is that its creating a copy of a copy. Quantum physics tells us that, at the very least, our understanding of time is likely different from what might be theultimate universal reality.

How close can robots ever come to imitating humans if they, like us, only think in classical terms? Perhaps a better question is: what happens when AI learns to think in quantum terms while us humans are still stuck with our classical interpretation of reality?

So youre interested in AI? Thenjoin our online event, TNW2020, where youll hear how artificial intelligence is transforming industries and businesses.

Published September 17, 2020 18:52 UTC

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World Views | ByteDance is playing chicken with Trump on TikTok – Macau Daily Times

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There havebeen enough leaks over the past few days to get a sense of what the TikTok-Oracle Corp. deal looks like. The details are revelatory, with two aspects in particularworthy of note.First, TikTok parentByteDance Ltd. would maintain majority ownership, leaving Oracle and other American partners collectively in a minority, Nick Wadhams and Shelly Banjo of Bloomberg News reported this week, citing people familiar with the matter. Secondly, Oracle would have full access to TikToks codebase, according to the report.In summary, Oracle would get the keys to the castle but ByteDance would still own the kingdom.Theres an important caveat: the White House and the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. havent signed off on the deal. President Trump said hell get a briefing today [Macau time], and isnt yet prepared to approve it.According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump administration officials remain committed to having TikTokunder U.S. control.ByteDances determination to hold onto majority ownership seems jarring. Despite being a global phenomenon, TikToks worldwide revenue last year accounted for about2% of ByteDances total sales. The Beijing-based company has plenty more products in its suite, including a domesticversion of TikTok called Douyin and news aggregator Toutiao. It would be a small financial sacrifice to let go of TikTok if that means keeping the business alive and operating in the U.S.I have no doubt Beijing has made its views on a majority sale clear to ByteDance management. After all, the Chinese government wouldprefer to see TikTok shut down than forced into American hands, according to a Reuters report.Yet the second aspect of the deal, as it stands now, is also revealing. Giving Oracle fullaccess to TikToks codebase indicates ByteDance is confident itll be just fine if the Americans get to peek under the hood at the software that has made the app such a global sensation.Software and algorithms dont stand still. The TikTok of today is vastly different from the TikTok of a year ago, and the product wed see next year would be better again. If improvements get slowed, or even halted, under U.S. management then ByteDance probably wont sweat it because it has thousands of engineers tweaking and refining the algorithms at its other products. And since TikTok is only a small part of its business, a certain amount of stagnation wont kill the company.Of course, that may bea harsh assessment U.S. software engineers remain the best in the world and would probably do a good job of developing the product. But either way, ByteDance can afford not to care too much as long as it still controls the company and can determine key decisions, such as whether to go for an initial public offeringor make an acquisition. It would also remain in the drivers seat should a future U.S. administration reverse course.That seems to be the Chinese companys endgame. Signing over majority control has a finality that the Chinese company hopes to avoid. Access to the codebase, on the other hand, can be reversed at anytime.ByteDance is playing chicken with President Trump. Lets see who flinches first. Tim Culpan, Bloomberg

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The Fate of Schrdinger’s Cat Probably Isn’t in The Hands of Gravity, Experiment Finds – ScienceAlert

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For the better part of a century, the world's greatest minds have struggled with the mathematical certainty that objects can be in multiple positions at the same time before something causes them to snap into place.

A number of physicists have wondered if good old gravity is responsible for forcing the particle equivalent of a roulette ball to settle into its metaphorical pocket. That's looking a little less likely in the wake of a new experiment.

Researchers from across Europe recently tested a potential explanation of the apparent collapse of a waveform, determined not by observations or weirdly branching multiverses, but by the geometry of spacetime.

It's an idea that has its roots in a paperpublished back in 1966 by the Hungarian physicist Frigyes Karolyhazy, championed decades later by renowned minds like Roger Penrose and Lajos Disi.

In fact, it was Disi who teamed up with a handful of scientists to determine if we could blame gravity for one of quantum physics' most brain-numbing paradoxes.

"For 30 years, I had been always criticised in my country that I speculated on something which was totally untestable," Disi told Science Magazine's George Musser.

New technology has finally made the untestable a possibility. But to understand how it works, we need to take a brief dive into quantum insanity.

Back in the early 20th century, theorists modelled particles as if they were waves in order to reconcile what they were learning about atomics and light.

These particles weren't quite like waves rippling across the surface of a pond, though. Think of the curving line you might draw on a graph to describe your chances of winning a bet in a dice game.

To some physicists, this whole gambling analogy was just a convenient fudge-factor, to be later resolved when we worked out more about the fundamental nature of quantum physics.

Others were adamant quantum physics is as complete as it gets. Meaning it really is a muddy mess of maybes down in the depths of physics.

Explaining how we get from a rolled dice to a clearly defined number describing things like particle spin, position, or momentum is the part that has had everybody stumped.

The famous Swiss physicist Erwin Schrdinger was firmly on team 'fudge factor'.

He came up with that outrageous thought experiment involving a hidden cat that was alive and dead at the same time (until you looked at it), just to show just how nuts the whole 'undecided reality' thing was.

And yet here we are, a century on, and still superposition the idea of objects like electrons(or bigger) occupying multiple states and positions at once until you measure them is a core feature of modern physics.

So much so, we're developing a whole branch of technology quantum computing around the concept.

To avoid needing to invoke half-baked notions of consciousness or infinite co-existing versions of reality to explain why many possibilities become one when we look at a particle, something less whimsical is needed for quantum probability to collapse into.

For physicists like Penrose and Disi, gravity might be that very thing.

Einstein's explanation of this force rests upon a curving fabric of three-dimensional space woven with time's single dimension.Frustratingly, a quantum description of this 'spacetime' continues to elude theorists.

Yet this firm discrepancy between the two fields makes for a good backbone to pull waves of possibility into line.

Penrose's version of this idea rests on the assertion that it takes different amounts of energy for particles to persist in different states.

If we follow Einstein's old E=mc^2 rule, that energy difference manifests as a difference in mass; which, in turn, influences the shape of spacetime in what we observe as gravity.

Given enough of a contrast in all possible states, spacetime's immutable shape will ensure there's a substantial cost to pay, effectively choosing a single low-energy version of a particle's properties to yank into place.

It's an alluring idea, and luckily one with a potentially testable component.For all purposes, that snap should affect a particle's position.

"It is as if you gave a kick to a particle," Frankfurt Institute for Advanced Studies physicist Sandro Donadi told Science Magazine.

Kick an electron enough and you'll force it to cry photons of light. Logically, all that's left is to create a kind of Schrdinger's cat experiment by locking the right kind of material inside a lead box, buried far from the confounding effects of radiation, and listen for its cries. That material, in this case, is germanium.

If Penrose's sums are right, a crystal of germanium should generate tens of thousands of photon flashes over several months as its superpositioned particles settle into measured states.

But Disi and his team didn't observe tens of thousands of photons.

Over a two month period when they conducted the experiment underground five years ago at INFN Gran Sasso National Laboratory, they measured barely several hundred just what you'd expect from the radiation that managed to leak through.

Penrose isn't too worried. If gravity were to cause particles to emit radiation on collapse, it might run against the Universe's tightly controlled laws of thermodynamics, anyway.

Of course, this isn't the end of the story. In future experiments, gravity might yet be shown to be responsible for flattening quantum waves. Right now, anything seems possible.

This research was published in Nature Physics.

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Hybrid lightmatter particles offer tantalising new way to control chemistry – Chemistry World

Posted: at 1:01 am

People thought what we did was totally wacky, recalls Thomas Ebbesen from the University of Strasbourg in France. When we tried to submit [our 2012 Angewandte Chemie] paper,1 there was one referee report that was very short and simply said: This is not science, this is science fiction.

For many, Ebbesens study might indeed sound like make-believe. His team showed it could change the rate and yield of a photoisomerisation reaction by instead of carrying it out in a beaker putting it in a small space between two mirrors. The space contained no chemical catalyst, nothing obvious that might make this possible. What the researchers did is tap into the power of the vacuum field, a weird quantum mechanical soup that surrounds everything.

2012 was an eye-opener for everyone, says Felipe Herrera who leads a molecular quantum technology group at the University of Santiago, Chile. Nobody believed this, and people spent maybe two or three years until they could reproduce the results.

Although vacuum-field catalysis is still in its infancy and doesnt have any practical applications yet, it could bring catalyst-free catalysis, ultra-selective carbon dioxide reduction and new photosensitisers. It might become a powerful tool to steer chemical reactions akin to photocatalysis. I think this field is going to have far-reaching implications, says Herrera.

It is the view of modern physics that there is no such thing as truly empty space, wrote physicist Brian Skinner from Ohio State University, US, on his blog over a decade ago. Physicists discovered that the universe is filled with an energetic soup, boiling and bubbling with particles that appear as fast as they disappear. Although this almost sounds like a ridiculous return to the long-discarded aether theory, experimental results like the Casimir effect have long since established the vacuum fields existence.

But what has been firmly in the realm of physics is now starting to interest chemists, who hope to one day catalyse reactions with this vacuum field. They do this by creating polaritons, hybrid particles that are part light, part matter. They form even in the absence of light when molecules strongly interact with the so-called virtual photons spontaneously thrown up by the vacuum field.

Creating polaritons out of light and matter is not unlike creating a molecule out of two atoms, Herrera explains. Bring two atoms close enough together and they form a molecule, a new entity with new orbitals, and new chemical properties. Similarly, polaritons often have dramatically different reactivities to their parent molecules so dramatic in fact that they could be likened to a new state of matter.

Although a small field, it has seen an uptick in attention from the scientific community. According to Web of Science, the number of studies containing the keyword molecular polariton has doubled, rising from less than 25 in 2017 to more than 50 in 2019. Since the start of the Covid-19 lockdown, around 200 scientists have been attending weekly webinars on polariton chemistry hosted by researchers at the University of California San Diego, US.

I think this field will open many minds, especially among experimental chemistry colleagues, says Herrera. Thats why I like this field so much, because its a bridge between maybe 50 or 60 years of quantum optics and perhaps 100 years of physical chemistry.

Making molecules interact with the vacuum field is as easy as putting them in a cavity. Simply put, optical cavities consist of two mirrors facing each other and separated by only a few nanometres in some cases. Cavities are a major component of lasers where they form a resonator for light waves. But in the dark, they can be used to create polaritons. Free space is infinite and vacuum field fluctuations are very tiny, which is why we dont see strong coupling in free space, Herrera explains. If you confine the field into tiny spaces, then these vacuum fluctuations are very large.

The dream would be to have super selective chemical protocols using cavities

Joel Yuen-Zhou,University of California San Diego

The cavitys size dictates the wavelength of the virtual photons that can live inside it. Matching this wavelength to be resonant with a molecules bond vibration or an electronic transition creates the conditions for lightmatter mixing, forming molecular polaritons.

An experiment to create polaritonic states might seem surprisingly crude: silver-coated glass slides serve as mirrors sandwiching a layer of target molecules. The setup is held together with screws, so the cavitys resonance frequency can be fine-tuned by minutely changing the mirror-to-mirror distance with a screwdriver.

Before 2012, physicists had modified molecules optical properties like light emission rates in this way. But Ebbesens team showed for the first time that sticking molecules inside a cavity can also alter their chemical properties. It was a proof of concept, and other studies conducted since hinted at the tantalising prospect of controlling chemistry in an entirely new way. It was revolutionary, certainly challenging how we think about chemical reactions, says Wei Xiong who works on ultrafast spectroscopy at the University of California San Diego in the US.

Although synthetic chemists might not see cavity catalysts in the catalogues of their favourite chemicals suppliers anytime soon, there has been progress in the field. In a preprint published in 2018, a team around Hidefumi Hiura from Japans NEC Corporation reported a 10,000-fold increase in the rate of ammonia borane hydrolysis when it was put inside a cavity containing water polaritons.2 Last year, the groups of Ebbesen and Strasbourg colleague Joseph Moran showed how coupling to the vacuum field changes the product ratio in a reaction that can produce two different products.3 And earlier this year, scientists led by Kenji Hirai and Hiroshi Ujii from Hokkaido University, Japan, tuned a cavity to the carbonyl stretching motion of ketones and aldehydes, slowing down the rate of a Prins cyclisation by up to 70%.4

People who learn quantum electrodynamics dont often sit in advanced organic chemistry classes and vice versa

Prineha Narang, Harvard University

How far could we push these changes? wonders computational materials scientist Prineha Narang from Harvard University, US. Could we have something that is completely selective to one product and shuts off all the other products, in particular for reactions that are of technological relevance? Carbon dioxide reduction would be one of those reactions, she adds.

While polaritonic chemistry might not become the next big thing for industrial synthesis, flow setups that funnel reagents through a cavity could provide a solution to scaling up reactions. I think it would be very nice to see controlling chemistry of triplet states, suggest Herrera. There are many photosensitisers that are used in industry that rely on electrons becoming unpaired.

The dream would be to have super selective chemical protocols using cavities, says Joel Yuen-Zhou who works on polariton chemistry at the University of California San Diego, US. This is still under development, but it might be the case that with appropriate photonic architectures, this will be possible.

However, so far, researchers havent been able to show that vacuum-field catalysis can do reactions that are impossible or hard to do with other types of chemistry. This is what we would love to demonstrate, says Ebbesen. But for the moment, were trying to understand the underlying mechanism of why some reactions are enhanced and some reactions are slowed down.

For the most part, scientists still dont understand the microscopic mechanism underlying vacuum-field catalysis. When molecules sit inside a cavity, only a small fraction less than 1% are actually occupying polaritonic states. The rest are in dark states, which can be likened to non-bonding orbitals. How exactly macroscopic changes happen with most molecules remaining dark is still a mystery.

Sometimes the evidence is confusing or contradictory, says Herrera. The mechanism that colleagues conclude in one paper doesnt work for a very similar molecule in another paper. Initially, researchers tried to reason that polaritons unpredictable behaviour was due to energetic variations like changes in reaction barrier.

However, first theoretical5 and then experimental6 evidence like the fact that like polar bonds are more strongly influenced than non-polar ones now point to vibrational symmetry as the key to solving the dark state paradox. Vibrational modes can be naturally self-excited or de-excited by the vacuum field depending on their dipolar symmetry, explains Herrera though how this links to reaction rate changes remains unclear.

A model that reproduces let alone predicts how different compounds behave is still missing. What scientists are after is a set of rules not unlike the WoodwardHoffman rules: something simple that nevertheless reflects the complexity of the underlying quantum mechanics.

Most reactions studied so far are slowed down by cavities rather than accelerated not something chemists usually look for in a catalyst. But why this happens and how they can be speeded up remain open questions, says Xiong. Only if we can understand what knobs we need to turn, we can control the selectivity, he adds.

Still, the prospect of doing reactions by simply putting reagents between two mirrors remains intriguing. Whether this is going to be a universal tool or not I think, as of now, I would say no but I wouldnt discard it in the future, says Yuen-Zhou. Just like with photoredox catalysis, you just need to find the right class of reactions.

There might certainly be something said for more people becoming involved and working together within this field. People who learn quantum electrodynamics dont often sit in advanced organic chemistry classes and vice versa theres a gap to be bridged, Narang says. But of course thats also where a lot of exciting discoveries come from.

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Empiricism, Instrumentalism, Critical Rationalism and Value Investing – Part II – Yahoo Finance

Posted: at 1:01 am

- By Grahamites

In a previous article, I briefly introduced empiricism, instrumentalism and critical rationalism. They are three different attitudes towards knowledge acquisition as well as three different theories about how to acquire knowledge. Each also has a different definition of rationality.

I won't go into the details of each school of thoughts. What resonates with me the most is critical rationalism, an idea brought about by Karl Popper in the middle of the twentieth century.

Some readers might not be familiar with Karl Popper. In my view, Popper is one of the most underappreciated thinkers who has had great impact on some of the most prominent financial figures in our time. His most famous student is George Soros (Trades, Portfolio). Nassim Taleb's thinking is also heavily influenced by Popper. Therefore, when I saw Popper's name on Li Lu's recommended list, I knew I had to read his books.

Popper's most important work, in my opinion, is his theory on scientific knowledge. He started to grapple with the problem "When should a theory be ranked as scientific?" or "Is there a criterion for the scientific character or status of a theory?" at age seventeen. He was interested in four theories then - Marx's theory of history, Freud's psycho-analysis, Alfred Adler's individual psychology and Einstein's theory of relativity.

Of them, he found Einstein's theory strikingly different because the risk involved in Einstein's prediction was very high. If observation shows that the predicted effect is absent, then his theory is simply refuted. In other words, the theory is incompatible with certain possible results of the observation. Later, Popper summed it all up by saying that the criterion of the scientific status of a theory is its falsifiability, or refutability, or testability.

Popper suggested that both science and philosophy should use the method of rational or critical analysis "of stating one's problem clearly and of examining its various proposed solutions critically." When I read Li Lu's book, I particularly noticed the frequent mentioning of scientific method and rationality. It appears to me that Li borrowed the idea from Popper. Not surprisingly, this is also what Charlie Munger (Trades, Portfolio) believes.

We often hear that value investing is partly artistic and partly scientific. If so, shouldn't we use the scientific method for the science part? Shouldn't we first clearly define what truth and rationality are?

I view this as a critical issue in value investing because value investors define rationality and truth differently. For instance, some believe in "rule of thumb" and historical valuation analysis. One issue with this approach is that you can't falsify valuation analysis. For instance, an investment thesis might be stated as Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) should trade at 14 times earnings. It's impossible to refute them because you can always argue that first of all, Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) has traded at 14 times earnings in the past multiple times. And secondly, it could trade at similar multiples in the future because it's the fair value. This is the empiricistic way of investing, which some value investors use.

On the other hand, the rationally critical value investors would propose falsifiable theories and actively seek contradictions. For instance, a falsifiable hypothesis regarding Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) would be that its cost of fund is the bank's sustainable competitive advantage. This is falsifiable because if in the future, Wells Fargo's cost of fund rises above its peers, then the hypothesis is invalid.

Above is just one example of how different ways of viewing rationality may lead to different ways of behavior. In practice, different views will inevitably lead to different approaches to research and actual investment decisions.

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Empiricism, Instrumentalism, Critical Rationalism and Value Investing - Part II - Yahoo Finance

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