Monthly Archives: June 2020

Yup, Its Gamblers – Dealbreaker

Posted: June 20, 2020 at 10:27 am

As investors bid up shares of the probably worthless shares of the bankrupt Hertz ninefold for seemingly no reason at all, some speculated that the truly senseless move was the result of boredom: Too many day traders with too much government stimulus/enhanced unemployment money and too much time on their hands buying things for the sake of buying them, or for the adrenaline rush that comes when those shares collapse once more because the New York Stock Exchange is not as easily fooled as some guy who has run out of things to get mad about on the internet.

Well, they were on to something. Whats more, it wasnt only day-trader boredom driving things. Gambling, as you may have heard, is pretty addictive, and one of the main things people gamble onsportsis not happening right now. Some of those peoplequite a lot, in facthave apparently heard the old saw that investing in stocks is simply gambling, and taken that as an invitation rather than a warning.

Millions of small-time investors have opened trading accounts in recent months, a flood of new buyers unlike anything the market had seen in years, just as lockdown orders halted entire sectors of the economy and sent unemployment soaring.

Its not clear how many of the new arrivals are sports bettors, but some are behaving like aggressive gamblers. There has been a jump in small bets in the stock options market, where wagers on the direction of share prices can produce thrilling scores and gut-wrenching losses. And transactions that make little economic sense, like buying up the nearly valueless shares of bankrupt companies, are off the charts.

Investors are increasingly asking us about the participation of individual investors in the shares and options market, analysts from Goldman Sachs wrote in a note published late last month. Our data suggests that individual investors are indeed a significant proportion of daily volume.

Depending on how much illegal sports wagering you believe there is, and on how little of it has flowed to Korean baseball books, theres $145 billion or so sloshing around, and a sudden embarrassment of free trading options to pour it into, well.

There has been a surge in small investors using option trades to make pure win-or-lose bets on where stock prices will be at a specific time, said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, an asset management firm.

Thats another sign that its these gamblers, he said.

It all sounds like another disaster waiting to befall our already battered and benighted world. But, as it turns out, those bored gamblers are doing pretty well for themselves.

A portfolio of stocks popular among individuals has surged by 61% since the bear market trough compared with a gain of 45% for both hedge fund and mutual fund favorites and a 36% rise in the S&P 500 Index The narrative of Main Street weakness versus Wall Street asset inflation is misleading, the strategists said. The surge in retail trading activity has amplified the market rotation toward cyclicals and value stocks.

Trading Sportsbook for Brokerages, Bored Bettors Wager on Stocks [NYT]Goldman Says Mom-and-Pops Stock Picks Are Trouncing Wall Street [Bloomberg]

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Yup, Its Gamblers - Dealbreaker

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Fears for gambling frenzy as Premier League and Championship return – The Guardian

Posted: at 10:27 am

Gambling welfare campaigners have warned of a potential frenzy in betting on football when the Premier League and Championship restart, with all 92 remaining top-flight games televised live to supporters still largely in lockdown.

Betting companies are expected to resume sustained advertising and marketing, particularly via the apps on which people have accounts to gamble on sport, and TV broadcasts will also prominently show advertising around the grounds and on club shirts. Of the 44 clubs in the Premier League and Championship, 27 61% have a betting company as their main shirt sponsor.

Research by the Gambling Commission into betting habits during the Covid-19 lockdown, published this month, has found they remained quite resilient despite the lack of sport and large numbers of people suffering a drop in income, with only a 5% decrease in active player accounts.

A finding that has worried campaigners is the large proportion, 62%, of engaged gamblers people who participate in three or more gambling activities over a four-week period who in March and April increased the time or money they spent on at least one gambling activity. The research also found a significant increase over the last year in the number of different gambling activities by people who bet online, from 26% engaging in more than one online activity in April 2019 to 42% during the full lockdown month this April.

We know from previous studies that engagement across a larger number of activities can correlate to higher levels of moderate-risk and problem gambling, the commission said.

Charles Ritchie, who co-founded the charity Gambling with Lives after his 24-year-old son Jack killed himself in 2017, told the Guardian: During lockdown people with gambling problems have increased the amount of time and money they spend gambling. We fear that the situation is going to get worse because alongside the welcome return of football and televised live games, we face the awful prospect of a massive boom in gambling advertising and marketing.

Most people will deplore the constant parade in this marketing of the usual celebrities, false glamour and excitement, and incomprehensible offers. But for many people this could spell despair and disaster, lured back into the 90-minute non-stop in-game frenzy of betting on any and every aspect of the game, which is the reality of modern football betting.

Ritchie has consistently sounded the alarm about the increasingly addictive nature of betting on football, due to the growth of in-game offers on the next goal, booking or other event. Research has shown that rapid-outcome betting is more addictive than gambling on longer outcomes, such as a matchs result.

James Grimes, a recovering gambling addict who formed the Big Step gambling awareness campaign, has called on the government to ban gambling sponsorships and advertising in football, and in February completed a 100-mile walk between six Premier League and Championship clubs that have betting companies as sponsors.

The increased opportunity to watch games from home and for free has the potential to cause gambling harm, he said. The social aspect of football has gone for the time being and solitary viewing, with a bookmaker effectively on your phone in your pocket, is a recipe for harm.

As a recovering gambling addict, I think back to when my life revolved around betting on football. I didnt need an excuse to stay home, losing all my money on in-play, high-intensity gambling products associated to football. I dread to think of the consequences for my addiction if I was still gambling now, with the prevalence of betting opportunities and relentless marketing.

Tranmere Rovers chairman, Mark Palios, has spoken out against gambling sponsorship, which he says he has turned down for Tranmere, and the club are working with the Big Step and NHS on initiatives to combat increases in online gambling during the pandemic.

The coronavirus crisis is predicted to increase the commercial pressure for clubs to have gambling sponsors, as other consumer businesses suffer financial difficulties.

In February the Premier Leagues chief executive, Richard Masters, said he acknowledged that gambling required stronger governance, particularly to protect the vulnerable and that the league would cooperate with the governments promised review of the 2005 Gambling Act. However, he said the league would resist moves to ban advertising on clubs shirts.

The EFL has said of its association with Sky Bet that it is happy to work with a responsible, properly regulated bookmaker who recognises the importance of having the right safeguards in place.

A spokesperson for the Betting and Gaming Council, which represents gambling companies, said they had implemented several measures to protect against problem gambling during lockdown. With the return of some sports, the whistle-to-whistle ban on TV advertising during live sport will remain in place and we have further committed that 20% of all advertising will be safer gambling messaging, he said. This is in addition to implementing a ban on gambling with credit cards, new strict age and ID verification checks and providing additional funding for research, education and treatment.

GamCare (gamcare.org.uk, helpline: 0808 8020 133) offers free information, support and counselling for problem gamblers in the UK. In the UK and Ireland, Samaritans can be contacted on 116 123 or email jo@samaritans.org or jo@samaritans.ie. In the US, the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline is 1-800-273-8255. In Australia, the crisis support service Lifeline is 13 11 14. Other international helplines can be found at http://www.befrienders.org.

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Bombay of the 1970s, a Time of Shady Bars, Petty Gambling and Great Opportunity – The Wire

Posted: at 10:27 am

At Famous Studios in Tardeo, Avtar Kaul was editing his film 27 Down, next door to us editing Rajnigandha there. In his manic pace, sometimes Avtar would even be sleeping in the editing room itself.

Avtar, why the bloody hell are you working at this psychotic pace. Take it easy man, because you have no release date to meet. Abhi tak toh hamari filmen koi nahi kharid raha ha. Shayad dabbey mein hi reh jayegi dost?

Look, Suresh, I want to enter it in the National Awards this year. All the Dadas hats are in the ring. I want to throw my little topi in too. I have to meet that deadline, Buddy. You wont understand. he said, his voice trailing off.

None of us, including him, could imagine in our wildest imagination that on the eve of his film getting the National Award for the Best Hindi Film, he would tragically drown in the monsoon seas in Walkeshwar, trying to save a friend who had accidentally fallen off the parapet wall of the property where he had a paying guest accommodation.

We were all in our early 30s then, except Basuda who was 42 years old. Our worship mantra was: Surya soye aur daaru jaage. At sunset, in groups of four, we would pile into taxis and head for our place of worship and liberation; our favourite auntys adda under the swaying palms of a sleepy palms fringed Juhu, or the Koli village in Khar, or an under-construction building in Bandra, whose ground floor turned into a speakeasy at night. In fact, we explored all addas from behind the Taj Mahal Hotel to Sion, where next door, a Sikh rehriwala fried the most scrumptious fish in the universe. And you would tip the Bihari mundoo, of the way beyond Michelin Stars Chef, two one rupee coins for bringing it to you to enjoy with your tharra, and his face and eyes would light up like a jugnu in pitch dark on a summer night.

Those were the glorious days of Prohibition, when booze was available everywhere. Even your lift operator knew an aunty in the slum nearby, whose kholi sold it 247, when you ran out at 2 am, but were still partying.

Bandra was then still a leafy nearly in the boondocks suburb, when habitable Bombay ended at Mahim Church. Beyond the Causeway, except for Juhu, where the rich had their beach shacks, was dehat rural Bharat.

St Michaels Church in Mahim, Mumbai. Photo: Anuradha Sengupta CC BY 2.0

Every taxi driver in Bombay knew the famous aunty in Bandra who lived on the second floor of the building. After the adda served the last drinks but you still wanted another quarter to help you put down dinner at the food carts on Linking Road, the taxi took you below Auntys second floor flat. A basket would slither down from the flat in which you put the money for the brand and quantity of the bottle you wanted, and the basket would fly towards the stars, and would descend again like Pushpak Vahaan with the nectar.

If one of our fellow tipplers got too sizzled, you requested aunty to call a cab, who made the cabbie count the money in his pocket (which was just enough for the fare) and sternly told him: You will leave him at this address, take the cab fare from his pocket, help him to his door, ring the door bell and wait till someone opens it and takes his charge from you. Kya? Samjha?? And we never had an iota of doubt that our buddy would be safely home and puking in his own toilet bowl.

Also Read: Basu Chatterjee, the Real Stealer of Hearts, Remembered by the Boy Next Door

The Bombay Police was reputed to be one of the best in the world at that time. It operated on the system of it takes a thief to catch a thief. Of course, the police took their hafta to turn a blind eye to organised crime but also demanded that sharif log be neither, harassed, cheated or physically harmed. One could send a teenaged girl or a drunken friend in a cab at 2 am and could be sure they would reach their destination safe and unharmed. Bombay was the safest city in the world.

Other than bootlegging, the other major organised crimes were smuggling and Ratan Khatris matka. From the Elysian Fields of Malabar Hill to the slums of Dharavi, everyone had their very own bootlegger, smuggler man and matka bookie.

Everyone, I mean literally everyone, from the society housewife to the ever-smiling toothless beggar outside your building played matka, which could be played for as little one rupee in the slums to several lakhs in the citys satta bazaar. When the numbers were picked out at 8pm, everyone wherever they were, would start asking everyone else: Kya number inkle? The cabbie would ask you in the cab or you him, the lift man would too, while you were lifting to your flat, and the beggars while you were flagging down a cab or waiting for a bus. Ratan Khatris was the True and Revered Once and Future King of the Nights of Bombay. A man of sterling integrity who never had a single charge of unfairness or cheating till the Emergency shut down his operations and jailed him.

Haji Mastaan was the Smuggler King, larger than life and more romanticised by the aam aadmi than a Mills and Boons novel. Not only were smuggled goods available everywhere but everyone in high rises, shops, film and recording studios, clubs and addas had their own personal Smuggler Man. They were not criminals but normal, polite and neatly dressed men, Hindu and Muslim, trying to make a living by catering to a market of respectful citizens. We were in Nehruvian Socialism and flat broke to be able to import anything at all.

Our local industrialists got their license-permit-quotas by bribing both the Neta and the Babu. They manufactured razor blades that nicked off a little flesh along with the hair on your chin, lipstick that melted in sun making the mouths they adorned like Kalis after a blood feast, wooden pencils whose lead snapped after every half page of writing, erasers that adorned the page, after use, with black streaks like pre-monsoon skies, fountain pens which would flow with the same irregularity as the citys water supply.

It was just law-abiding folks who, in addition to the above necessities, wanted cheap tape recorders and cameras, terylene and nylon (the new man-made wonder fabrics) pants and shirt pieces for themselves and gifts to others, toys for the kids whose paint was not toxic, because the Commanding Heights of The State had chained our peoples natural animal spirits for entrepreneurship to institutionalize a corrupt, rent seeking and parasitic system.

Bombay was the lodestone to which, like lemmings to the sea, people from the vast cultural, linguistic and racial kaleidoscope landscape of India headed to make their fortunes through luck and pluck with fathomless optimism. Landless peasants came to become labourers in the massive construction boom, or cooks, drivers, watchmen, taxi drivers, bootleggers and smugglers. Small businessmen from the non-descript dusty towns to become seths and buy expensive flats in high rises popping up everywhere. Dhirubhai Ambani, the son of a village school teacher and ex-attendant of a petrol pump in Oman, was just getting to be known with the launch of Vimal Fabrics.

Educated young men and women came to become journalists and copy writers in the advertising industry, and stars in different areas of the film industry actors, producers, directors, playback singers, musicians.

It was a magical tour crackling with psychedelia, stardust, the music of the spheres seductive with limitless possibilities. It was real because every day someone you knew as a fellow lodger in a seedy guest house or paying guest accommodation in a faraway suburb was moving to his own flat in Bandra, Khar or Juhu, the new prestigious suburbs of upward mobility.

Basuda loved the city with a passion: Suresh, you tell me, which city in the world will make a boy from Mathura a well-known film director. With my family background, the most that was expected of me, and that my in-laws would consider a good match for their daughter, was to become an upper division government clerk.

From L to R: Manu Bhandari (writer of Yeh Such Hai on which Rajnigandha is based), Vidya Sinha, Amol, Basu Chatterjee, Dinesh Thakur, Suresh Jindal

As I trudged along with him on the streets or drove in taxis to studios and theatres to meet prospective actors to cast in Rajnigandha, or to Salil Chawdhurys flat on Pedder Road for a music sitting, or to eat in an Udupi or Irani dhaba, for thats all we could afford, he would give me anecdotal stories from his rich repertoire, both experienced and heard, of the film industry and of the citys famous and infamous icons.

At suraj soye daru jaage time, we would hop in a cab with other friends to float to our chosen adda for the night. Basuda would always drink moderately, silently with eyes half-closed, and leave earlier than all others in the gang, who were mostly younger and bachelors, to always eat his dinner at home in Prabhadevi.

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How a psychologist cracked the secret of winning at professional poker in just a year – Telegraph.co.uk

Posted: at 10:26 am

Together, Konnikova and Seidel put together a plan. They will commit a year of their lives with the goal of getting Konnikova from the greenest of novices to a seat at the table at the mecca of pro poker: the Main Event at the World Series of Poker in Las Vegas.

The journey Seidel has planned out for her has no shortcuts. Shell have to work her way up from playing online poker in New Jersey coffee shops, through to charity tournaments, and off-Strip Las Vegas casinos, before she is allowed to play in the big leagues. Seidel teaches her the lingo (I was left baffled and amused by terms such as Naked Ace High, A Blocker to the Nut Flush, Capped Range, VPIP and degenning) and also offers an entre into the world of pro poker, a world populated by men with names such as LuckyChewy, Jungleman, and Chino, who have pink hair and fervent beliefs in the benefits of microdosing, and who bet on push-up competitions in between rounds at $100,000 tournaments in Monte Carlo.

The Biggest Bluff is a brilliant book mostly because Konnikova is a brilliant writer, but also because she is a brilliant observer of the weird world she has immersed herself into. Her pithy descriptions of casinos in Las Vegas, Macau, and elsewhere (she refers to Vegas perfectly as an adult playground on a lifelike scale) captures the seedy charm of these airless, dream-filled tombs.

She is also an excellent chronicler of the gender dynamics around a poker table. Pro poker is 97 per cent male. Men tend to view women as easy marks. (Konnikova cites a study showing that men bluff women 6 per cent more than they do other men) Then there is the mixture of condescension, bullying and lechery she encounters from her fellow players. Konnikova tries to flip these prejudices to her advantage, with limited success.

Not that chauvinism hinders her startling ascent through the poker ranks. From the outset, Konnikova is disarmingly modest about her successes. She mentions offhand that she made $2,000 on online poker while still a rookie. She wins her first tournament within six months of starting the project. Within 12 months she is flying to Europe to participate in tournaments. She clearly becomes very good at poker, very fast.

The most enthralling parts of the book are when she takes the reader inside the cockpit and talks through some of the high-stakes plays she finds herself involved in. Less interesting are her attempts to extract life lessons from the tables, (All too often, we stay in a hand long after we should have gotten out. Channel your outer warrior and your inner one may not be long in coming out. Do I go for the min cash in my life decisions?) but, in fairness, most good advice tends to be clich.

Perhaps the most penetrating insight is not that life is like poker, but rather that poker is better than life. For all its flaws, the world of pro poker is meritocratic and democratic to a tee. Everyone is allowed, she writes. No one will turn you away if you didnt come from the right school of have the right connections or diplomas. If you can afford the buy-in, you can play, simple as that.

I wont spoil the ending, but I looked up Konnikovas earnings on the Hendon Mob. By their count, she has earned $300,000 (240,000) at the tables. Id wager that missed deadline was worth it.

Clement Knox is the author of Strange Antics: A History of Seduction (William Collins)

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Live Poker Tournaments Are Slowly Returning Around The Globe – Poker News – CardPlayer.com

Posted: at 10:26 am

The coronavirus outbreak led to an abrupt halt of live tournament poker action in March of 2020. While the global poker circuit effectively ceased all operations over the course of just a few days, the return of tournament action is likely to be much more gradual.

The first major poker room in the world to reopen its doors was the Kings Casino Rozvadov, which is one of the largest rooms in Europe. It resumed operations on May 11, nearly two months after it first announced a temporary closure due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Cards were in the air in Rozvadov for two weeks before the venue hosted their first live tournament series, called The Big Week, which ran from May 25 31. The venue has continued to offer a selection of smaller daily tournaments and short series since resuming tournament action in late May.

Stateside, a number of poker rooms also resumed operations with only cash games available at first. Casinos in Florida began reopening in late May, including Derby Lane in St. Petersburg, the Seminole Hard Rock, and bestbet Jacksonville and bestbet Orange Park.

The Seminole Hard Rock Tampa recently announced that they would resume spreading select daily tournaments on June 23, after having first reopened on May 21. Derby Lane resumed spreading tournament events on June 6. Both venues currently include a maximum number of participants for their events.

We are going to start offering tournaments again in July, bestbet Director of Poker Jesse Hollander told Card Player. We will likely have three tournaments a week in Jacksonville and two a week at Orange Park, no-limit holdem tournaments with buy-ins of $60 and $150. We will offer those in July, and hopefully will offer more starting in August.

The Las Vegas strip reopened on June 4, and with it three poker rooms resumed operations: The Venetian Poker Room (pictured above before the outbreak), the Orleans Poker Room and the South Point Poker Room. The Golden Nugget followed suit a couple days later, and three more rooms opened on June 18 at Bellagio, Caesars Palace, and Sahara. The Venetian was the first to announce a return to multi-table tournament action. The room will host two $250 buy-in no-limit holdem shootout events, with one each on June 19 and June 20, with an eighty-player cap for the field and an 11:00 a.m. start time.

The events will have a maximum of five players per table, and will follow the shootout format that sees each table play down to a winner before moving on to the next round. The second round will shift to four-handed action, with the winners from those tables combining onto the final table of four to play down to a champion.

While these rooms and others around the country, and the world, have just begun to host live poker tournaments again, no major poker tours have yet announced the resumption of their publicly released schedules.

I believe to have large scale multi-table tournaments [running again], the most important thing is that some restrictions have to be lifted, said World Poker Tour Executive Tour Director Matt Savage. Travel restrictions so that players can attend, capacity restrictions so that tournaments dont have to be capped, and player per table restrictions so that tournaments can be played more than six-handed so that the properties that are open are fine with giving up cash games to run less profitable tournaments while maximizing attendance.

Savage spoke to Card Player about the Coronavirus impact on the live tournament scene back in late April. In that discussion, he highlighted the most important factor for himself and other tournament organizers: the wellbeing of those involved in putting on and playing in potential events.

The top priorities for us are to make sure that the players are safe and make sure our staff are safe, said Savage.

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Will the online poker boom last? – Casino Beats

Posted: at 10:26 am

Mark Robson, co-founder of Champions Sports, says operators need to be smart if thecurrent online poker boom is to continue once sport returns.

Online poker has enjoyed something of a resurgence following the global sports blackout resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic with some operators reporting a 60 per cent boom in play.

There are several reasons why players are returning to the game, but the big question operators are asking themselves is whether the higher levels of engagement can be maintained.

That will ultimately depend on the operator and its strategy for acquiring and retaining players, as well as the preferences of the players themselves.

Before discussing how operators may be able to prolong this unexpected rise in interest, lets first look at why a lack of sports and sports betting has led to a spike in poker play.

Sports and poker are different but the same

There are many similarities between sports betting and poker, especially the way it appeals to two different types of gambler the emotional player and the intellectual player.

Emotional sports bettors bet on a team or a player because they are fans and it adds even more excitement to watching the game.

Emotional bettors can enjoy the same feeling when playing online poker playing based on gut feeling or because they are holding their lucky hand.

Intellectual bettors, on the other hand, use their skill and knowledge to study form and bet based on the information available to them even if that means going against their favourite team.

Intellectual bettors are drawn to poker because it also requires skill and knowledge to master not only the game, but also their opponents. Instead of beating the odds, they are beating their rivals.

In addition to this, poker is an inherently social game and allows players to chat. At a time whenpeople are craving interaction, poker stands out from other gambling products.

Returning to the game they love

Another reason for the current poker boom is the lack of sports has pushed bettors back to a game they already know and love for some, poker will be the first game they played online.

This is certainly true of those that were introduced to online gambling during the poker boom of the early noughties. Of course, the passing of UIGEA dramatically changed the landscape (and not necessarily in a good way).

With diminishing player pools, many migrated away from online poker to other products such as sports betting and even casino and live dealer.

But with sports off the agenda due to the pandemic, many have gone back to poker and seem for the time being at least to have rekindled their passion for the game.

New players have the time to learn the game

As well as attracting existing players, the current situation is driving new players to the game as well. This is partly because they have the time to understand and learn how to play.

Some will have been curious about poker for some time, but with other entertainment and betting options available they simply wont have got around to giving it a go.

But with no sport to bet on and with fewer entertainment options on which to spend their budget many are turning to online poker for the very first time.

Boom or bust

The big question of course is whether operators will be able to maintain the high levels of interest they are currently enjoying once sports events and betting return.

Undoubtedly some players will stop playing poker and return to their preferred sports betting activity, but savvy operators can keep some of the players engaged in the long term.

This will require a smart approach to marketing and in particular the structure of the tournaments and satellites they are running now and throughout the year.

Operators should look to run satellites into bigger tournaments with decent prizes up for grabs. It doesnt have to be large cash prizes, either.

It could be a car, a home entertainment system anything that is going to excite players and encourage them to enter the satellites and earn their seat at the final.

By hosting the final at the back end of the year, and by running weekly satellites between now and then, there is a huge chance for operators to continue to engage players and drive retention.

Will the online poker boom last? Possibly not, but the current situation will undoubtedly drive growth in online poker and operators just need to figure out how best to take advantage of it.

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The Biggest Bluff Pays Off – Forbes

Posted: at 10:26 am

In The Biggest Bluff Maria Konnikova becomes an expert poker player and learns even more about life. ... [+]

I was talking to a client recently, the president of a large real estate organization. We were discussing his hiring process. He told me that they hired smart people who graduated from name brand schools who were obviously driven. But somehow they didnt make good decisions when it counted and they didnt seem to learn from their experiences. I asked him if he had considered networking in the poker world to find possible hires. He was taken aback, (isnt poker kind of shady?) but as we talked about it he could see that the skills you learn in poker set you up to make good decisions in your day job.

Thats one tangible idea I got from The Biggest Bluff, the wisdom-packed new book by psychologist and author Maria Konnikova. As a complete novice she goes on a quest to learn how to play poker as a way to explore the topics of luck and skill and decision-making. Along the way she becomes an international poker champion winning over $300,000 and playing in the main event of the World Series of Poker. You will be gripped by her story, and youll learn a little bit about poker and a lot of insights for your work and life.

I asked Konnikova about her views on personal risk taking. She had a coveted job as a writer at the New Yorker. How could she leave this behind and take up professional poker to write a book about it, with no guarantee of success?

I always think of worst case scenarios, Konnikova said. That makes me relax. Colleagues and friends (and her grandmother) told her that it was unwise, she said, But Ive never listened to what other people tell me. Ive come to trust myself to a certain extent. And if I think something is fascinating other people will as well.

Here are some of my takeaways:

Dont dwell on your setbacks. When she started playing poker, Konnikova complained to her poker coach, Poker Hall of Fame inductee Erik Seidel, about her rotten luck. He cut her off and told her not to replay bad beats. Bad beats are a really bad mental habit. You dont want to ever dwell on them. It doesnt help you become a better player. Its like dumping your garbage on someone elses lawn. It just stinks.

Some people dont realize the amount of time they spend replaying past mistakes or being frustrated at the hand theyve been dealt in business or in life. As Konnikova says: When you begin to think about yourself as the victim of bad circumstances, you dont open your eyes to possibilities around you and your opportunities naturally narrow so you create a self-fulfilling prophecy.

This is a key insight for you as a leader. A CEO I work with used to complain vehemently to his staff about moves his competitors would make. The entire company would discuss external circumstances over and over again. It sapped their energy, wasted time and took focus away from improving their own product and internal systems. I coached the CEO to focus on what he and his team could control.I also helped him see the competition not as an annoying problem, but as a worthy adversary which helps make his team better. We eliminated bad beats which unclogged the energy of the team to be more creative and focus on solutions inside of the company.

Take full responsibility for whats happening. As she learns the game, Konnikova replays her various hands to her coach Seidel who says she is describing things as happening to me rather than taking responsibility for my actions.

By working with a performance coach, Jared Tendler, she further developed her ability to be more proactive. Konnikova saw, for example, that when she got rattled at the poker table her emotions would seep into her decision-making. Tendler suggested that she get up and walk around to clear her head, even though she would lose a few chips if she wasnt present for a hand or two. That was actually better than playing when I was emotional, she said, and that was something I hadnt thought of on my own.

Many leaders are scheduled back to back all day. You may have an emotional discussion with an employee, followed by a high stakes sales conversation with a potential customer from which you go straight into an all-hands meeting.

Its easy to get overwhelmed, causing the quality of your decision-making to go down. When I first meet leaders, they often show me their calendars so I can see that they are scheduled all day long. They act like their calendar just happens to them. Too many meetings are natural in the corporate world, but you can take control of your schedule. You can block out several hours per week to make sure you have thinking time. You can tune in to how youre feeling and take a walk around the block when you see youre no longer clear-headed. And you can stop a conversation when it gets heated. These actions are not intuitive, so you have to build your self-awareness, adjust your behavior, and take control of your day.

Dont get sunk by sunk costs. As part of her poker immersion, Konnikova saw others and herself enact some common decision-making biases and traps. One we discussed was the sunk cost fallacy: this is when people continue on a course of action because they have already invested time and energy into it. In poker you might keep betting, when you really should fold, because you feel like youve already put a lot of money into the pot. If you keep making decisions that way and you dont adjust your process, you keep losing.

Thats true for leaders, too. You may keep developing a product even though data tells you that customers no longer want it because your team has committed so much to it. Or you may keep one of your underperforming executives far too long because youve invested so much time and energy in getting them up to speed.

Konnikova told me that poker helped her see her own tendencies and correct for them. For example she and her husband planned to travel to Florida. After the pandemic hit they canceled their trip even though they couldnt get a refund. They didnt let the sunk cost of the money already spent influence their decision now that they had new information.

Add curiosity and subtract certainty. The best way to learn is to keep an open mind. As Seidel says regularly: Less certainty, more inquiry. Curiosity and intellectual humility are the keys to growing, to seeing the world the way it is and adjusting. They are also qualities that lead to personal growth.

These are also the qualities that make you a great coach to your employees. Your team may regularly ask you to answer their questions, and of course sometimes you will. But if you pause and teach them to grapple with questions and have the patience and discipline to think things through to inquire even when they are not certain they will be forced to find their way through and, in doing so, build their own capability.

This book may or may not inspire you to learn to play poker. But I hope it will spark you to take some of the principles and apply them to your own leadership repertoire.

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The Biggest Bluff Pays Off - Forbes

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With Brexit Trade Talks at an Impasse, Boris Johnson Finally Engages – The New York Times

Posted: at 10:25 am

BRUSSELS Prime Minister Boris Johnson of Britain, in his first direct talks with Brussels about Brexit since his country left the European Union at the end of January, agreed with European leaders on Monday to push ahead with intensified talks in July and August to try to reach a trade deal by the end of the year.

Mr. Johnsons remarks came in a videoconference with the unions three presidents Ursula von der Leyen of the European Commission, Charles Michel of the European Council and David Sassoli of the European Parliament.

In a brief joint statement after the videoconference, the two sides praised their negotiators but agreed nevertheless that new momentum was required.

With negotiations at an impasse, both sides agreed to intensify the talks this summer, with the aim of concluding and ratifying a deal before the end of 2020, the statement said, including, if possible, finding an early understanding on the principles underlying any agreement.

Speaking later in London, Mr. Johnson said, I dont think were actually that far apart, but what we need now is to see a bit of oomph in the negotiations.

The faster we can do this, the better, and we see no reason why you shouldnt get this done in July, Mr. Johnson added. I certainly dont want to see it going on until the autumn, winter, as I think perhaps in Brussels they would like. I dont see any point in that, so lets get it done.

Britain has legally left the European Union, but both sides agreed on a transition period until at least the end of this year, so nothing has fundamentally changed. The idea was to give time for both sides to negotiate their future relationship, with the possibility of an extension to the talks. But Mr. Johnson, eager to fulfill his Brexit promises and to stop paying into the European Union budget, has ruled out any extension.

With both sides concentrating on how to manage the coronavirus pandemic, talks so far have been slow to progress. Heightened and even angry rhetoric from the chief negotiators David Frost for London and Michel Barnier for Brussels has contrasted to what officials on both sides describe as polite and professional staff-level talks involving as many as 150 people on each side.

Mr. Barnier said last week that there had been no significant areas of progress at the last negotiating round. Mr. Frost said that progress remains limited, with negotiators reaching the limits of what could be achieved in formal talks.

Without key political decisions, the talks after four rounds were faltering. Mr. Johnson and Ms. von der Leyen have agreed on an accelerated series of negotiations to run through July and part of August. Both sides say that any agreement must be made before the end of October, to allow the British and all the European parliaments to ratify the deal and for both sides to prepare.

But that is not much time, and some believe that faced with the prospect of no deal, some form of modest extension could be arranged if the two sides were close to an agreement.

The two sides have adopted a posture of being open to an outcome with no deal, rather than to make too many concessions. Both want an agreement though, because the economic disruption of a brutal break would be significant.

Given comparable size and the flow of goods, it would probably be worse for Britain, which sends more than 40 percent of its exports to the European Union and gets more than 50 percent of its imports from the bloc. But the pain would be felt on the continent as well.

The remaining roadblocks to a deal are significant, both political and economic. Europe wants a comprehensive agreement, as suggested in the nonbinding political declaration both sides signed as part of the withdrawal agreement. Britain, especially with time so short, wants a more modest free trade agreement, with side deals to handle issues like fishing, which has a larger political than economic importance for both sides.

There is a fundamental disagreement on governance, with Europe regarding the European Court of Justice as its ultimate authority and Britain saying that its Parliament and courts must remain supreme. So how future disagreements would be adjudicated or arbitrated remains a serious area for dispute.

Brussels and Mr. Barnier insist on preserving the coherence and integrity of the European Unions single market. To ensure that, they want an agreement on what has been called a level playing field, to prevent Britain from loosening its regulations and lowering its taxes to make European goods less competitive.

British officials say that their regulations are now the same or even tougher than those of Brussels, so its good intentions should be assurance enough. In any case, they add, any of its goods entering the European market must meet European standards.

Britain would like access with zero quotas and zero tariffs. But that, Brussels says, would require a legally binding agreement to keep to the regulations of the single market the level playing field.

But in a February document outlining Britains red lines, the government said that, we will not agree to any obligations for our laws to be aligned with the E.U.s. Instead, Mr. Johnson proposed some kind of independent monitoring system, perhaps arbitration.

Brussels also wants commitments on state aid and subsidies to British companies, so that they do not undercut European ones.

Brussels says that without a deal on fishing and on competition rules, there can be no deal at all.

On the one hand, the British complain, the Europeans say that Britain is a smaller economy and needs to be realistic, and on the other, that Britain is a serious economic threat. By that logic, Europe would have difficulty with any relatively large economy close to its borders.

And it is absurd, the British say, for an independent country to promise to mirror Brussels rules forever, or to pretend that fishing quotas should not change over time, given that fish move and fish stocks change.

But the Europeans complain that Britain wants to cherry pick bits of previous trade deals with countries that are not comparable, like South Korea or Canada, given their geographical separation.

Stefaan De Rynck, a senior adviser to Mr. Barnier, said last month that the U.K. will always be special to us, but it is also right next door, and proximity matters in trade. Every deal is custom-made, he said. The U.K. cant say I want a little bit of South Korea, a little of Mexico, Canada and Japan on the side.

Brussels also complains that Mr. Johnson is backtracking on the existing agreement governing the island of Ireland to ensure that the land border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic now the border between the United Kingdom and the European Union remains as open as it is now. While the deal allows European officials to be present during checks at Northern Irish ports and airports, Britain has objected to those officials keeping an office in Belfast.

Neither side is really ready for what will be in the end a hard Brexit, let alone a no-deal Brexit, said Fabian Zuleeg, head of the European Policy Center, a think tank in Brussels. As an indication that Britain wants to avoid too much disruption, the government announced last week that full border controls on goods entering from the European Union would not apply until at least July 2021.

That approach will allow most importers of standard goods up to six months to complete customs declarations and to pay tariffs, if any apply. The announcement was praised by British trade associations, because it would reduce the expected backlog at British ports.

The European Union, however, has said that in the case of a no deal, it would apply complete customs and tariff controls from Jan. 1 of next year. That would most likely mean extended delays on the European side.

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With Brexit Trade Talks at an Impasse, Boris Johnson Finally Engages - The New York Times

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Brexit victory: Macron WILL cave to UK fishing stance by autumn – but there is a catch – Express

Posted: at 10:25 am

King's College London Professor of European Politics and Foreign Affairs and Director of UK in a Changing Europe, Anand Menon, predicted a potential Brexit breakthrough. During an interview with Express.co.uk, Mr Menon noted the UK could see France's President Emmanuel Macron drop his demands regarding access to UK fishing waters. Mr Menon added this could happen as soon as the autumn time as pressure grows for the EU the closer to the end of the transition period both sides get.

However, the European politics expert claimed Britain may have to compromise on other issues like trade standards.

Mr Menon insisted a compromise from both Britain and the EU was needed to ensure a trade agreement could be reached.

He said: "If we are going to get a deal then by the time we get into the autumn political leaders on both sides are going to have to make some trade-offs.

"It might be that the French will say they will ask less about fish.

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"It may be the British side saying we are going to accept some minimum standards from the EU.

"Unless there is some ground given it looks like there won't be an agreement."

Mr Menon explained the difficulty in predicting whether a trade deal would eventually be reached at this stage.

He said: "In order for there to be a Brexit deal, one or both sides of the negotiations are going to have to give ground.

"What we don't know yet is whether either side is willing to give ground.

"I think one of the things about the Brexit trade talks to date is because of COVID-19 the political leaders on both sides have not been engaging in the Brexit talks.

"Remember, on the UK side the negotiations are being solely carried out by a special adviser, there is no direct political involvement."

Mr Menon also explained tensions were rising in the EU camp as Brexit trade talks intensify.

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Mr Menon claimed chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier was growing frustrated with the member state leaders.

He insisted that Mr Barnier was asking for more leeway from member states on demands in hopes of more smoothly moving talks along with the UK.

Contrary to Mr Barnier's hopes and wishes after speaking to leaders, some were tightening their mandate ultimately making the Brexit trade talks more difficult for Mr Barnier.

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Brexit victory: Macron WILL cave to UK fishing stance by autumn - but there is a catch - Express

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Brexit news: What would ending the transition period with no deal really mean? – Express.co.uk

Posted: at 10:25 am

The Brexit transition period will not be extended according to Cabinet minister Michael Gove. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said there is a very good chance of getting a trade deal by December. But if a deal cannot be done, what would this mean for the UK after December?

At the end of last year, a No Deal Brexit was a topic of discussion, but now the term has returned to common usage.

The UK formally left the European Union on January 31 and now the country is in a transition period until the end of the year.

This means the UK is still part of the EU single market and the customs union currently, and therefore all the rules and regulations, as well as budget payments, remain the same.

The UK has decided not to take up the option of extending the transition period for one to two years to enable negotiations to continue regarding a future free trade deal.

READ MORE:EU finally admits UK fishing waters 'sovereign'

If negotiations do not lead to an agreed deal by the end of the year, a new version of No Deal would take place.

This would mean trade with the EU would automatically fall back on the basic World Trade Organization (WTO) rules.

The WTO is the global body where countries negotiate the rules of international trade.

In total, there are 164 members in the WTO and if they do not have their own free trade agreements with one another, they trade under WTO rules.

Every WTO member has a list of tariffs and quotas which apply to other countries with which they do not have any free trade agreements.

These deals are known as their WTO schedules.

Under WTO rules, cares would be taxed at 10 percent when they cross the UK-EU border after the end of the transition period.

Agricultural tariffs would rise to an average of more than 35 percent for dairy products.

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The Government has published a guide to UK tariffs from January 1, 2021.

The UK Global Tariff (UKGT) will replace the EUs Common External Tariff from January 1 and will apply to all goods imported into the UK unless:

An exception applies, such as a relief or tariff suspension.

The goods come from countries that are part of theGeneralised Scheme of Preferences.

The country youre importing from has a trade agreement with the UK.

It only shows the tariff that will be applied to goods at the border when they are imported into the UK.

It does not cover:

The Government is removing all tariffs below 2.5 percent which it refers to as nuisance tariffs.

In total, 47 percent of all products will have zero tariffs, compared with 28 percent when in the EU.

Among the biggest tariff cuts will be types of preserved mushrooms, which will have their tariffs cut from 18.4 percent to zero and yeast, which will have its tariff cut from up to 14.7 percent to zero.

The following items are having their tariffs to cut from the following current tariff rates to zero:

There are also likely to be non-tariff barriers such as product standards, safety regulations and sanitary checks on food and animals.

The UK and EU will need to find ways to work with each others regulations.

The UK has announced that with or without a deal, checks on EU goods coming into the UK will be phased in the next year to give firms time to adjust.

Non-tariff barriers would have an even greater impact on the service sector, which makes up about 80 percent of the UK economy.

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Brexit news: What would ending the transition period with no deal really mean? - Express.co.uk

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