Monthly Archives: June 2020

IVE just seen a new report (from Best for Britain and the Social Market Foundation) on the double impact of Brexit and coronavirus and feel like Ive spotted an iceberg on the horizon that everyone else is ignoring.

The report shows that any change to our trade relationship with Europe during the Covid-19 recession will hurt the UK economy. The North West and the Midlands regions of the UK would face a disproportionately severe impact should we leave the Brexit transition period without any kind of deal.

Brexit is done and we cannot stop it, but we can protect our jobs, our services and our local businesses. However, our communities are already stretched to breaking point by the coronavirus pandemic and we desperately need time to deal with that before we can turn our focus to our changing relationship with the EU.

J HOCKING

Paddock Grove, Verwood

Read more from the original source:

Letter to the editor: No-deal Brexit would make recession worse - Bournemouth Echo

The fourth round of official Brexit negotiations resumed on Tuesday, screen-to-screen. They will determine whether the stalemate can be broken and a trade deal sealed by the end of the transition date of 31 December. By mid-June, a high-level 'stock-take' between Boris Johnson and Commission PresidentUrsula von der Leyen will assess whether sufficient progress has been made to continue negotiations.

Such is not the case thus far, according to recent public utterances from Michel Barnier and David Frost, who hasclaimed 'very little progress'. Just like in Endgame, Samuel Becketts tragicomedy, a sense of hopelessness pervades the final scene of the drama. In the play as with Brexit the characters await deliverance while nothing, in fact, happens. How will it all end? For sure, if the absurdity is to finish thisEndgame cycle, then any extension is out of the question. So three scenarios are possible, but only one is likely.

The first is the conclusion of a full Free Trade Agreement; the second is that talks break down and Britain moves to WTO rules from 1 January 2021; the third sees talks become ever more fractious and the EUs kingmakers France and Germany step in to redirect the official negotiations.

Of the three, the second seems the most probable but not before Macron and Merkel make an entrance.

What will they press for? A wide gap exists on EU access to UK fishing waters and the requirement for Britain to provide a level playing field on regulations, security and governance. Nothing happens once, as during Theresa Mays premiership, it will be the Merkel-Macron good cop, bad cop dynamic. Merkel will be practical, calm and seemingly helpful in proffering compromises. Macron will be ideological, imperious and inflexible. But the context has changed dramatically since the days when Mrs Mays UK could be browbeaten by the Franco-German duo. The UK government is in a much stronger position domestically, while the EU is weaker and more divided than it has been since the 2008 great financial crash. There are several reasons for this.

First, the EU put on a hapless display of division during the early period of the coronavirus pandemic, with France and Germany blocking the export of masks and ventilators to the likes of Italy. Despite belated apologies from the President of the European Commission, the wound has not healed.

Second, in attempting to construct a financial rescue package for the pandemic, the European member states have split between north and south. The Franco-German rescue plan of 750 billion (670 billion) worth ofloan and debt mutualisation remains to be agreed by the 27 leaders, their governments and, crucially, their parliaments. That is a tall order.

Hostility to the package by the frugal four of Holland, Austria, Denmark, Sweden, is public knowledge. But other member-states are joining them to the anguish of the Commission. They have realised that the richest member states will receive substantial payouts from the fund France 39 billion (35 billion) and that the European Commission will be in charge of recouping the debt via EU taxes and overseeing member state expenditure, as Matthew Lynn pointed out last month. Fractured European solidarity on EU issues makes speaking to the UK with one voice difficult.

Third, the German Federal Constitutional Courts ruling of 5 May has undermined two fundamental EU principles: the primacy of European over domestic law andthe supremacy of the European Court of Justice. In so doing, it has theoretically boosted member states sovereignty.Other national jurisdictions may seek to follow the German example in contesting the legitimacy of unpopular EU actions, sowing further discord among member states. It also makes a mockery of the EUs insistence on the ECJs supremacy of jurisdiction over UK domestic law, a fortiori post-Brexit.

Fourth, EU solidarity won the day in extracting the withdrawal agreement and political declaration from the UK. But now cracks are emerging in the final throes of trade negotiations where member states' conflicting national interests are visible. For instance, central and eastern European states, by their geography, contest their western counterparts dogged insistence on retaining, at all costs, fishing rights in UK waters an east-west fracture added to that of north-south.

Since the nadir of the May days, the boot has been on the other foot as regards negotiating solidarity. Expect particularly jaundiced member states the Scandinavians and the eastern Europeans to contest the Commission and Macrons euro-ideological hard line. The UK has the opportunity to drive a hard bargain by using discontented member-states with whom it has in the last few years increased its diplomatic presence to divide and conquer, in the manner of the European Commission towards the constituent nations of the United Kingdom.

In truth, the two sides are too far apart for a deal to be feasible. World Trade Organisation rules with annex agreements in an Australian deal is the sanest outcome. Otherwise, as with Endgames character Clov who constantly vows he is leaving, but cannot exit the room the Brexit play will join the theatre of the absurd.

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Inside the final act of the Brexit drama - Spectator.co.uk

Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has outlined further steps for re-opening the country.

It followed a Cabinet meeting on Friday, where the next phase of the roadmap was discussed.

Mr Varadkar announced that it is safe to move to phase two of the plan, starting on Monday.

Seven more people have died from COVID-19 in Ireland.

Latest figures also show that there are 28 new confirmed cases of the virus here.

This brings the overall death toll to 1,760 with a total of 25,163 cases.

The Government has confirmed that a summer education programme is to take place for children with significant special educational needs and those at greatest risk of educational disadvantage.

It was announced as part of an acceleration of the roadmap to re-open the country.

Education Minister Joe McHugh said it is "a stepping stone" to help some young people ahead of the next school year.

A woman in the UK has spoken of her hurt and offence at a decision to block her from using an Irish-language inscription on her mothers gravestone.

Margaret Keanes family want the words In r gcrothe go deo inscribed on her gravestone in the St Giles burial ground at Exhall, Coventry.

However, a Church of England judge ruled that the inscription must have an English translation alongside it so that it wont be mistaken as a political statement.

The EU's chief Brexit negotiator Michael Barnier says the UK is 'continuing to backtrack' on the commitments it has undertaken in the political declaration.

He made the remarks on Friday following a fourth round of negotiations for a new partnership between the European Union and Britain.

The talks have centred around fisheries, free and fair competition - the so-called level playing field' - guarantees protecting people's fundamental rights and freedoms, and the governance of a future relationship.

Read this article:

Evening top 5: Accelerated COVID-19 re-opening; summer schools; and 'no progress' on Brexit - Newstalk

AS the UKs Brexit farce has spun around in circles at full tilt this week, one big question has crystallised: what would it take to make the Conservative Government do the sensible thing and extend the transition period?

It is impossible to overstate the importance of kicking the notion of leaving the European single market, and the attendant huge economic damage to the UK, into the long grass.

Countries must remain focused on minimising deaths from the coronavirus pandemic. Governments around the world will also have to work very hard to rebuild economies, huge parts of which have been shut down to save many thousands of lives.

The relatively swift recovery in output that was viewed as at least a possibility back in March now looks increasingly unlikely as a raft of employers unveil huge job cuts. Engineering company Rolls-Royces announcement this week of plans to cut around 700 jobs at its plant at Inchinnan in Renfrewshire is among the bitter blows we are seeing to livelihoods and the economy.

In Scotland and the UK as a whole, and in many other countries around the world hit hard by coronavirus, government efforts on the economic front must be focused on doing everything possible to support living standards, as the crucial fight to minimise the Covid-19 death toll continues.

READ MORE:Ian McConnell: Is it Tory instinct that is risking the ship for a haporth of tar on furlough scheme?

In this context, the Conservative Governments continuing utter determination and unseemly haste to leave the European single market a move which forecasts drawn up by the Theresa May administration show will cause major economic damage over many years under any scenario look ever more incongruous. It is surely ever more difficult for anyone but the most ardent of Brexiters to argue the UK Governments behaviour on the Brexit front is not absurd.

Sadly, this remains an ideological drive, with arch-Leavers having shown little sign of being satisfied with their technical Brexit on January 31, albeit many would at the same time probably try to pretend this official departure from the EU means the withdrawal has actually happened in a meaningful way. It has not, of course.

The all-important transition period, which runs to the end of 2020 and can be extended by up to two years if the UK Government asks, has of course ensured the actual effects of Brexit have not been felt yet by ensuring continued frictionless trade and free movement of people. That is the reality of the situation.

And there have been plenty of other realities, if only the Tory Brexiters would take a look.

One big catalyst for crystallisation of the question of what would make the Conservative Government perform a u-turn on its stubborn insistence to leave the European single market on December 31, no matter what, was car manufacturing giant Nissans intervention this week as fears of a no-deal Brexit mount. The Bank of England also underlined the importance of UK banks preparing for the possibility of a no-deal exit from the European single market.

READ MORE: Ian McConnell: Brexit circus tensions build as UK and EU reach critical point

It is easy to see why no-deal fears are mounting, with the UK and European Union looking as far apart as ever on massive broad issues. And the July 1 deadline by which an extension to the transition period of up to two years must be agreed is obviously very close now.

The EUs chief negotiator in the talks with the UK over the future relationship, Michel Barnier, emphasised his view ahead of the resumption of discussions this week that the UK has been taking a step back, two steps back, three steps back, from the original commitments.

Mr Barnier meanwhile hammered home the importance of this weeks talks on Twitter.

He said: A crucial week ahead of us to make tangible progress across all areas, in line [with] the political declaration. A high-level meeting later this month will take stock of progress.

But the noises from Downing Street, claiming the EU was making unprecedented and unbalanced demands regarding a post-Brexit trade deal did not appear to bode well for progress.

Prime Minister Boris Johnsons spokesman said: The political declaration sets out the potential scope of the future relationship; both we and the EU signed up to it. Any agreement based on it has to be balanced and represent a balance of benefits to both sides.

In relation to the level playing field, the EU has insisted on including a set of novel and unbalanced proposals, which would bind the UK to EU law or standards or impose control over our domestic legal regimes. These proposals are unprecedented in free trade agreements and not set out in the political declaration.

This comment does not look like something that Mr Barnier would regard as a step forward.

A Scottish Government study published this week has concluded that refusal by the Conservatives to agree an extension to the transition period would over two years cost the economy north of the Border up to 3 billion in cumulative lost activity on top of the devastating effects of the coronavirus outbreak. This is based on a projection that Scottish gross domestic product would, if an extension is not agreed, be up to 1.1 per cent lower than otherwise after two years.

The cumulative loss is put at nearly 2bn if a basic trade deal can be reached with the EU by December. The near-3bn figure relates to a no-deal outcome.

READ MORE:Boris Johnson and 'lovely' adviser Dominic Cummings will not risk public spending clampdown, global investment guru declares

Publishing the results of the study, Scottish Cabinet Secretary for the Constitution, Europe and External Affairs Michael Russell said: Given the huge economic hit caused by coronavirus, it would be an act of extraordinary recklessness for the UK Government to refuse to seek an extension. The Scottish Government believes the best future for Scotland is to be an independent member of the EU but regardless of peoples views on independence or Brexit, it makes no sense to impose additional damage on Scotlands economy at this, of all times.

It is certainly difficult to see how anyone, even an arch-Brexiter, could argue that imposing extra economic damage was sensible. And, regardless of political or constitutional views, extra economic damage is clearly not a good thing.

Mr Russell said: I believe there is a growing common-sense coalition to press for an extension to avoid such a disastrous outcome and the needless damage it would do to Scottish jobs and our economy.

Asking for an extension does surely seem like common sense, pure and simple.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has meanwhile this week noted the Scottish Government would have to divert resources from tackling the coronavirus crisis to no-deal Brexit planning if the UK Government continued to refuse to apply for an extension to the transition period.

She said: [If] you take the Scottish Government, we are, as I think absolutely everybody would expect, focused on dealing with the coronavirus crisis.

But if there is no extension request, we are going to have [to] divert resources from that to thinking about and starting to prepare for the consequences again of a no-deal Brexit.

The First Minister added: I would just appeal to common sense does anybody seriously think right now that that is a sensible thing to be doing? I dont, and I hope the UK Government comes to its senses.

You get the impression that Mr Johnson and his Brexit-minded Cabinet colleagues will continue to turn a deaf ear to pleas for an extension, especially if they come from the Scottish Government.

However, there have been plenty of other warning signs for Tory Leavers this week on the Brexit front.

And the Nissan intervention should be viewed in this context as a brightly flashing warning light.

The Japanese group has emphasised this week that its Sunderland factory, the largest car manufacturing plant in the UK employing around 7,000 workers, will be unsustainable if the UK leaves the EU without a trade deal.

Nissans chief operating officer, Ashwani Gupta, highlighted the fact that the EU was the biggest customer of the Sunderland plant in an interview with the BBC.

He hammered home the importance of continuing tariff-free access to EU markets in the context of the Japanese car manufacturers commitment to Sunderland.

Mr Gupta signalled Nissans commitment could not be maintained if the UK did not reach a free trade agreement with the EU.

Asked about the Sunderland plant, he said Nissan was committed but warned that a change to the tariff regime would mean it would not be sustainable.

Mr Gupta added: Thats what everybody has to understand.

In a Scottish context, Charles River Laboratories has this week cited Brexit as a crucial factor in its decision on job losses at its biopharmaceuticals sites at Riccarton, near Edinburgh, and Tranent in East Lothian.

Graeme Turnbull, regional officer of trade union Unite, said of the US-based companys decision: This is devastating news for the workforce based at Charles River Laboratories. Around 60 workers face losing their jobs over the next year in very challenging circumstances. The company is citing Brexit as being the decisive factor in this announcement rather than the Covid-19 pandemic so they have not listened to our pleas to furlough the workers.

Sadly, the answer to the big question of what would make the Tories halt the Brexit circus in its tracks, at least for a year or two, has not crystallised.

There seem to be increasing fears that some arch-Brexiters might regard the likely huge economic fall-out from the coronavirus crisis as cover for the significant additional damage that will be done from leaving the European single market.

Who knows to what degree these fears are on the money. However, whatever people might or might not be thinking, hopes of the UK Government hitting pause on the Brexit folly, to avoid compounding the economic damage arising from the coronavirus crisis, look increasingly forlorn.

The Conservative Brexiters have of course remained hidebound in pursuit of their European separation cause in spite of everything that has happened since the June 2016 vote to highlight the huge economic damage arising from their drive to tear the UK out of the EU bloc.

In the face of this weeks Brexit-related events, the Tory Leavers remain as stubborn as ever.

This only fuels the impression that this is a very ideological business indeed one far, far detached from economic reality and common sense.

Read more from the original source:

Ian McConnell: Will anything, anything at all make Johnson and Co. stop Brexit folly in its tracks in time as Scottish pleas ignored? - HeraldScotland

Michael St Georges selections for comment from recent Brexit-related media articles.

NB: () denotes article behind paywall

EU: Trade with China Trumps Freedom for Hong KongGatestone Institute

IT should by now be clear that, having either deliberately released the Covid-19 virus or negligently allowed to it escape (the jury is still out on that one), China intends to take advantage of the rest of the world being both distracted by it and intimidated by its dependency on China for PPE to advance the Chinese Communist Partys own agenda.

So far, the UK has reacted honourably to the Chinese threat to Hong Kongs freedoms by suggesting the grant of a 12-month UK visa as a pathway to citizenship for the roughly 3million Hong Kong residents who qualify for British National (Overseas) status. The EU, on the other hand, shows no inclination to do anything which might jeopardise its trade links with China.

The UK must resist any moves by the EU in Brexit negotiations to capitalise on a potential future reduction in UK-China trade by being even more intransigent on future UK-EU trade relations. The EU has more to lose. Not only would the arrival in Britain of up to 3million from one of the most dynamic and entrepreneurial economies on Earth be a welcome boost to our post-pandemic recovery; the prospect of Hong Kong-style low-tax, free-market, small-state attitudes growing and thriving only 22 miles off the declining, sclerotic EU mainland would put the fear of God into it.

History will judge Brexit on how the fisheries issue is settledGlobal Vision

TCWs Brexit Watch has mentioned on several occasions how British commercial fishing has a symbolic, almost talismanic, political status as a proxy for Britains surrender of economic and territorial sovereignty since joining the then EEC in 1973, even if that status is out of proportion to the industrys economic significance.

So the article authorHjrtur Gumundssonis right to warn that the UK must maintain its stance of refusing to lump fishing in with all other aspects of a UK-EU trade deal assuming one can be reached at all, which looks increasingly doubtful, though not necessarily harmful and instead continue to insist that it be treated separately.UK chief negotiator David Frost has so far also been adamant that EU intransigence on access to UK fishing waters will heighten the risk of the UK walking away from a trade deal, and this pressure too should be maintained. Playing hardball may be paying off.

The greatest danger here, paradoxically, may arise from Boris Johnsons reported intention to involve himself more closely in the minutiae of negotiation.Never a details man at the best of times, the risk that, amid some typically Johnson bluffnbluster, a disadvantageous trade-off or concession might be made purely to achieve a deal for political purposes but whose baleful effects could reverberate, couldnt be discounted. In that case, Brexit would indeed be judged on how the fisheries issue was settled, and Johnson would be in the dock.

No-deal Brexit holds fewer fears for a Covid-ravaged economyFinancial Times ()

Even the irreconcilably Continuity-RemainerFTtacitly, albeit reluctantly, acknowledges what many have been saying ever since Covid-19 first appeared on the horizon.Set against the costs to the UK economy of the pandemic, or more accurately, the costs of the panicking Government:

1.putting the economy into the deep freeze;

2.placing millions on the State payroll;

3.borrowing upwards of 300 billion; and

4.restricting civil liberties to an extent unprecedented even in wartime,

the costs in comparison of a No-Deal Brexit pale into insignificance.

Not only would the likely scale of the inevitable-in-any-event decline in economic output ameliorate any adverse economic consequences of reverting to WTO terms on a No-Deal final exit, but Covid-19-induced unemployment might even be lessened by the recruitment of personnel needed to operate new border controls.

TheFTof course quotes the usual anti-Brexit Jeremiahs in abundance, but for it to admit that it may not be all doom and gloom is quite something. Its an ill wind. . . .

Free trade with America will see our farmers prosper Centre for Brexit Policy

Considering how the iniquities of the EUs Common Agricultural Policy, and the importance of the UK re-acquiring the ability as an independent sovereign nation to conclude trade deals, were among the significant issues aired during the 2016 EU Referendum campaign, its sometimes surprising how they appear to have receded in the public mind since then.

Yet, as this article by former Environment Secretary Owen Paterson makes clear, the calls to maintain EU-amenable levels of trade protectionism, particularly as regards agricultural products, have not gone away, merely re-surfaced under animal hygiene or animal welfare labels.

To end being told by countries into whose legislatures we have no democratic input what regulations we must apply domestically is one of the reasons we voted to leave the EU. Paterson is undoubtedly correct to say that free trade, policed by reputable global organisations overseeing regulatory equivalence rather than harmonisation, offers us a better chance of benefiting from our decision while improving animal welfare than does the alternative of continued trade-protectionism.

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TCW's Brexit Watch: Our Hong Kong connection strikes fear into EU - The Conservative Woman