Monthly Archives: June 2020

Throughout the coronavirus pandemic, weve been eagerly awaiting a return to normal. We want to be able to go out again, see our friends, and be in public places without feeling like were risking our health or that of others.

Now that Covid-19 case counts have gone down and restrictions are starting to lift, it seems were at last on the path back to some semblance of normalcy. But as recent events have shown, the status quo before the pandemic wasnt all that great for large swathes of the population, both in the US and around the world.

Do we really want to get back to normal, or should we be focusing on building a more just and inclusive future?

Last week at Singularity Universitys digital summit on the future of work, SU chair of Future Studies Paul Saffo and chair for the Future of Work Gary Bolles discussed a piece of the old normal they think needs to change: the structure of the economy.

Over the last few decades, weve increasingly distanced ourselves from the values our ancestors built into post-World War II society, and it appears that in many ways, were worse off for it. Rather than sticking to the winner-take-all capitalism thats gotten us where we are, Bolles and Saffo believe, the future will be far more promisingfor everyoneif we re-orient towards a moral economy.

A simple definition of a moral economy is an economy thats based on justice and fairness.

The term, Saffo said, is almost two centuries old. James C. Scott was one of the preeminent thinkers in this area, and he framed the concept of a moral economy like this: imagine youre a farmer in a small agrarian village. Youve had a bad year, but your neighbor is also a farmer and hes had a good year. So you go to your neighbor and he freely shares some of his surplus with you, not because hes just being nice, but rather because next year he may be the one who needs help, and you can be the one to help him then.

Essentially, a moral economy respects interdependence and relationships rather than leaving everyone to fend for his or herself with no regard for how others are faring. The other standout expert on this topic is E.P. Thompson, and he wrote about the moral economy in England before and after the Industrial Revolution. Moral contracts existed between landlord and peasants before the Industrial Revolution; but the rise of free-market thinking did away with putting these moral concepts first, and the long-standing contracts between people and groups were broken.

The important thing about the concept of a moral economy today is that whenever theres a big idea in the zeitgeist, we usually ask ourselves the wrong question, Saffo said. Back in 2009 everyone was asking will robots steal our jobs?, but then people realized that that was the wrong question, and we should be thinking about the future of work. Now that weve shifted to focusing on that topic, the way to tie in the myriad issues around itincluding the environment, equity, diversity, and technologyis to discuss the future of work within the context of a moral economy.

When looking at big disruptions to the economy, we tend to focus on the technologies that brought about massive change; the steam engine, nitrogen-based fertilizer, the incandescent light bulb, etc.but its equally significant to examine the laws and norms that went into place during these historical shifts.

In England before the Industrial Revolution, Bolles said, there were a lot of small farms, and in between the farms there was a common space where the farmers are allowed to graze their animals. When the Industrial Revolution and mass production techniques came along, the farms started to get bigger, and laws called the Enclosure Acts were created to hand the common areas over to large landholders; they unsurprisingly ended up having the most land and the most money.

A lot of the interconnections of those economies were lost, and they rewarded more bigger faster stronger, and that echoes down to today, Bolles said. Giant tech companies have created platforms, and weve rewarded them by putting more and more content and information and data on their platforms. The big get bigger, which ultimately leads to the small being forced out.

Today, we should ask ourselves what the new Enclosure Acts are, said Saffo. There are always forces trying to do enclosures, and moral economies dont appear by accident. People fight for them.

After the Great Depression, American workers unionized and organized to demand a moral economy. World War II prompted the creation of one that lasted for several decades, until, Saffo said, the early 1980s, when laws were passed that began systematically dismantling it. The Gini coefficient measures how far a countrys income distribution deviates from being perfectly equal, and in the US this number has steadily risen since the 1980s. In 2015, the top 1 percent of earners in the US averaged 40 times more income than the bottom 90 percent.

In the 1980s everybody took the order that had been created in the previous decades so much for granted that they didnt fight to preserve it, Saffo said. In my opinion, were at the breaking point today.

The world has changed dramatically since the 1980s (not to mention since January). Technological advancement has brought abundant food, resources, and income to many more people than ever before, but its also made us value independence (that is, a movement towards an individualistic society that de-emphasizes depending on and helping others) at the expense of interdependence, and now were seeing the fallout.

Were in the middle of this independence bubble, and independence has become a very dangerous myth, Saffo said. Granted, in a small agrarian community its easier to make a moral economy work, because people see the consequences of their actions and get feedback from other parties. The massive global economy were living in, on the other hand, is a society of strangers, with little to no feedback and consequences that are invisibleuntil theyre not.

How, then, can we use technology to foster social solidarity and interdependence? How do we encourage the balancing of economies to benefit the most people possible? How would the world look different if it was built on these precepts?

Digital technology has done its share of harm to democracy and to social cohesionhow do we turn it around and harness it for good? Its not going to come down from the top, Saffo said. Its going to have to come up from the bottom, with individual communities leading by example.

Our current economic structure and reward system doesnt take into account the most important factors for our collective well-being, like justice, equality, the environment, and our physical and mental health. We need to trade in our defunct system for one that pulls these things into the equation in a meaningful way.

As sci-fi writer William Gibson famously said, The future is already here; its just not evenly distributed. Building a moral economy may be the first step towards righting that imbalance.

Image Credit: joko narimo from Pixabay

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Fixing What's Broken: If We Build a Moral Economy, the Future Will Be Better - Singularity Hub

EXCITING TIMES By Naoise Dolan

Already drawing comparisons to Sally Rooneys work, Exciting Times, by Naoise Dolan, has many of the familiar tropes of the millennial novel covered: Jealousy and obsession, love and late capitalism, sex and the internet all come whirling together in a wry and bracing tale of class and privilege.

The protagonist, Ava, is an intelligent, 22-year-old loner who moves from her native Dublin to Hong Kong to teach English, with no discernible qualifications other than being white. Not long after her arrival, she finds herself on a lunch date with Julian, an Oxford-educated British banker in his late 20s. She hopes hell be as impressed by her youth and attractiveness as she is by his salary, which she has Googled, thoroughly. I wasnt good at most things but I was good at men, Ava confides in the reader, and Julian was the richest man Id ever been good at.

Soon they are sleeping together, and Ava moves into Julians flat. She is highly attuned both to the power dynamics at play (do you want me to depend on you? she asks him) and to her moral predicament, as she adds up how much money she is saving on rent, as well as on the clothes and meals Julian pays for with the funds he doesnt know what to do with.

Ava admires how Julian handles his advantages, how he could calmly note where he benefited from unfairness not self-indulgently like I often did, but factually. As their undefined relationship goes on, she begins to develop her own brand of romantic longing, which begins with a desire for his life of privilege. I loved him potentially, she thinks. That, or I wanted to be him.

Ava is hyper-verbal and exacting, and Dolans writing excels when Ava turns her analytical eye on the intersections between English syntax, zeitgeist technology and interpersonal relationships: Because I lacked warmth, I was mainly assigned grammar classes, where children not liking you was a positive performance indicator. I found this an invigorating respite from how people usually assessed women.

By contrast, Avas written correspondences social media posts and emails she labors over, analyzes, doesnt send or sends by accident become increasingly vulnerable in their disclosures as the book moves along. They form a digital counterbalance to Avas aloof and guarded in-person presence, and through this duality Dolan captures perfectly the nauseating insecurity of growing up today.

Yet like many millennials, Ava exhausts the bulk of her mental energy on her bank account. Youre not easily pleased with how other people put sentences together, Julian accuses, but when it comes to money, youve got no taste. And no squeamishness about asking for it, discussing it, hoarding it. Ava doesnt flinch. The novel is shot through with moments of such startling self-awareness as this.

While Julian is back in London for six months, Ava meets Mei Ling Edith Zhang, a corporate lawyer from a well-off Hong Kong family. Edith has much in common with Julian: an Oxbridge pedigree and a high-powered, high-paying job. I wanted her life, Ava thinks. I worried this might endanger our friendship, but so far it seemed to be facilitating it.

Their friendship eventually moves through phases of awkward flirtation into a romantic affair, taking place mostly in Julians apartment, and in secret, as Edith is not out to her parents. But Julians impending return means Ava must decide not so much between her lovers as between Edith and the expensive flat that she doesnt pay for. Sure, her salary is good compared to the locals, but ending things with Julian would mean shed have to, gasp, live like they do, in coffin homes.

The novel takes place a few years after the 2014 Umbrella Movement, peaceful demonstrations that galvanized Hong Kongs youth, who were demanding open elections, in a renewed spirit of protest. Unfortunately, Dolans superficial evocation of the island is conjured mostly through Instagram latte art geotagged on fashionable streets. The actual experiences of local people her age have no effect whatsoever on Ava, the details of their lives mentioned, by the author, only in passing. Absent the textures of a real city that is sharply divided along generational, ideological and class lines, Dolans novel could have taken place in any other major Asian metropolis. None of the English-speaking characters seek to venture beyond their established social circles, where even brief references to elections or the conditions of domestic workers are dismissed as white savior-ish. They barely notice the Chinese characters on street signs, let alone try to understand them.

Those whove spent time in Hong Kong cant help wondering what its like to be among the Anglophone transplants who work and party there. Are they as insensitive and indifferent as they seem to the foreign city they call home? The answer Exciting Times seems to offer is yes, in this case they are just as shallow and myopic as one would assume. After a local waiter replies to her English greeting in Cantonese, an irritated Edith points out one of Avas blind spots: Youre not noticing because youre white, she says, people see me and assume Im from here. Edith might let Ava off the hook, but why should todays reader do the same?

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In Exciting Times, Echoes of Sally Rooney, but With a Queer Twist - The New York Times

Culture Movies

Netflixs Jeffrey Epstein: Filthy Rich is about the life of a billionaire and his obscene legacytold in all its ugly detail. By JAM PASCUAL

As soon as you think youve gotten used to all the ways the world can go wrong, the obscenely rich find a new way to stupefy you. This was pretty much how it went down last year when financier Jeffrey Epstein was arrested on federal charges for the sex trafficking of minors, as we around the world watched a web of lies and deception come undone, as the #MeToo movement gained more steam.

Epsteins molestation pyramid scheme (three words which should never be beside each other) was a zeitgeist-defining crisis, its twists and turns faithfully documented. Its hard to imagine anyone being in the dark about the subject, but considering the terrible wealth of problems happening around the world, its feasible that one simply did not give the issue due attention. Jeffrey Epstein: Filthy Rich is a documentary on one of the vilest men of our time, meant for those who perhaps couldnt stomach reading about Epsteins vile exploits while the news cycle was churning the story out.

It is an accomplishment that this documentary is able to do what it does, considering the fact that we know how the story ends. Epstein dies, and a million memes about Epstein not killing himself are born. Its an amusing meme, one whose tone of tin foil hat hysteria matches the absurdity of the events that preceded it and their illuminati proportions. And yet Filthy Rich manages to surprise. It does this deftly, setting up the image that Epstein aims to projecta wealthy, international man of mysterythrough an anecdote of a Vanity Fair profile that, had Epstein and his lawyers not threatened and manipulated the magazine, couldve published testimonies from two of his victims.

And then the documentary spends the rest of its running time tearing it all apart. An island nicknamed Pedophile Island. Underage girls flown in from France. Buying off the FBI. Its good nonfiction, but even the organising of facts and real anecdotes needs good pacing, which Filthy Rich has a lot of.

The four part docu rightfully places its attention first, and for a majority of the series, on the women that Epstein trafficked, making this as much a story of survivorship as it is a story of power. It takes time to unpack the extreme class difference between Epsteins El Brillo Way neighbourhood in Palm Beach, and the nearby low-income neighbourhoods from which many of the girls he exploited came from. Epsteins friends are cut zero slackthe likes of Woody Allen, Harvey Weinstein, Bill Clinton, Prince Andrew are some of the many names dropped to demonstrate Epsteins proximity to power, and the dubious company he kept as a financier. Its a shame that Epsteins main accomplice, Ghislaine Maxwell, could not be reached, but her absence speaks volumes. The blatant flaws of the justice and incarceration system are put on blast. To the credit of Filthy Rich, it makes these effortful attempts to call the conditions that allow Jeffrey Epstein to thrive, a systemic problem.

But the docu is kind of a redundant project. While the documentary is a harrowing, suspenseful watch that gives a Netflix-sized platform to women whose testimonies were ignored for years and not given nearly enough time in court, it is more emotionally taxing than insightful. In a world where there is just so much bedlam happening at any given moment, it is hard to give this film the emotional bandwidth required to stomach its story. Maybe thats the fault of its release date.

Plus, Filthy Rich doesnt really offer new information other than what was bombarded upon us through the news cycles unrelenting reportage. I believe any investigative piece should be able to strike a balance between educational and cinematic. Filthy Rich doesnt do that. It tells us things that we already know, through cinematic beats were familiar with if weve consumed literally any true crime media. Its painful to watchand not always in a good waysurvivors reopen old wounds. That sort of research is always a difficult undertaking, and Im certain director Lisa Bryant handled the stories of her subjects with as much delicacy and care as she could. But the vindication of these women could have been given better treatment in this narrative, instead of having their healing treated as a neat conclusion to what was essentially a true crime drama.

This is a documentary for viewers who wants to educate themselves, need a refresher, or just never got around to reading the articles and think pieces they left as open tabs on their browsers. But even then Filthy Rich couldve stepped it up in that aspect. Part of what makes the story of Epstein so compelling is the tracing of disparate threads to the places of power that impact the world today, and have impacted the world for a long time. Alexander Acosta, who approved a plea deal to basically soften Epsteins sentence from 2007-2008, would eventually come to be nominated Labor Secretary by Donald Trump. Alan Dershowitz, one of Epsteins lawyers, turns out to also be connected with Trump, Harvey Weinstein, and O.J. Simpson.

Here is an investigative piece that couldve used some more thread-tracing, more undone spiderwebsnot just for dramatic effect, but also to drive home the fact that the Epstein issue is a social issue.

You know that thing many documentaries do thats like a supercut of a bunch of news anchors all saying connected things? Imagine this. Clips of the Occupy movement and protestors chanting we are the 99 percent! as they march through Wall Street, the locus of big money and home to many of Epsteins old associates. Reports on the Panama Papers, which Epstein is also connected to. Clips of the FBI doing stuff. More clips: the trials and arrest of Bill Cosby and Harvey Weinsten, the latter a friend of Epstein. The election of Donald Trump, the 2017 Womens March, the Stormy Daniels scandal. From there, zoom out to reveal Epsteins face as a mosaic of screens. Or cut to black then come in with an anecdote by a survivor. This might seem a little hammy, but Filthy Rich already does a lot of work exposing networks of power and the big names therein.

In any case, I can only recommend watching Filthy Rich as much as I recommend reading up on the story, whether its the James Patterson book from which this movie was roughly adapted, or articles from a trusted news outlet. I suppose its just a matter of whichever medium you prefer. Either way, it wont hurt less.

You can watch Jeffrey Epstein: Filthy Rich on Netflix.

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This docu on Jeffrey Epstein is a harrowing watchalmost too harrowing, in fact, to stomach - ABS-CBN News

Associate professor of literature Sandy Alexandres research spans late-19th century to present-day black American literature and culture. In 2019, Alexandre was awarded a prestigious Bose Research Grant, which supports her study of the under-explored phenomenon of ideas that first appear in speculative fiction becoming technological and social reality. SHASS Communications spoke to Alexandre recently about her project to illuminate the literary, humanistic sources of many technological innovations and advancements.

Q: Literature as a source for technological innovation is under-explored territory. What directions are you most excited about in your current research? What are some historic examples of tech inspired by literature?

A: In asking participants in my study to read specifically for a work of speculative fiction's imaginary inventions, I am effectively asking them to read with a one-track mind. Needless to say, this approach to teaching literature is not characteristic of my usual or preferred modus operandi. So, besides a very extensive list of imaginary inventions, I'm curious to know what else that very particular way of reading might yield.

Could it help us understand how to factor imaginary inventions into a work of fiction's overall design, meaning, and significance, for example? Why is a particular category of imaginary invention, rather than another one, necessary to the particular story a work of speculative fiction wants to tell?

Overall, I hope that being able to survey speculative fiction's various and sundry imaginary inventionsmore systematicallywill not only illuminate the answers to these questions, but also generate new ones. My sense is that the larger the sample size of imaginary inventions we can collect, the better and more precise will be the kinds of questions we can ask of it. The world needs good question-askers as much as it needs good problem-solvers, and this research project aspires to produce some very good askers.

The World Wide Web is famously said to have been inspired by Arthur C. Clarke's short story Dial F For Frankenstein (1964). Whatever the truth is, I'm not surprised that a writer's process of meticulously crafting creative ways of communicating with readers would inevitably lead to the creation of imaginary inventions that foresee entirely new forms of communication. It's more than a little reasonable to assume that we can trace the lineage of communication platforms and devices back to well-crafted works of the language arts. Literature, its readers, and the inventors who are inspired by it are all a part of STEM history.

Q: Is the influence of literary texts on the development of technology an instance of one way literature functions in culture more broadlyoften as a harbinger, articulating new realities and possibilities? How does this research highlight how literature looks forward both technologically and socially?

A: Absolutely! My research will highlight how literature is inherently an imaginative and inventive enterprise. Putting words together in ways that are oft-thought but never so well-expressedis an exercise in prescience and trendsetting. A writer's constant tweaking and manipulation of words constitute atinkering the kind of tinkering one might associate with the makings of an engineer.

Literature is famously good for synthesizing a zeitgeist and distilling it into a cultural product. That ability, at the macro level, to compress a whole climate into a novel-length or short story-length work is not at all far from what writers do, at the micro level, when they harness their abstract ideas by transforming them into imagined physical objects. And frankly, who best to anticipate the needs of a society than writers who are deeply familiar with and who regularly immerse themselves in the countless narrative and life scenarios made available to them in the works of literature they read?

In other words, the sum of their many reading experiences is, to a great degree, encyclopedic in a way that necessarily makes their knowledge predictive. That such knowledge would endow writers with the ability to dream up inventions that should or could exist in the service of making our lives better and easier strikes me as the most logical progression. Avid readers who constantly encounter plot lines in manifold permutations and who write from that well-read positionality have a distinct advantage certainly over nonreaders in their ability to predict the future, to some extent, by virtue of being well-versed on past and current events.

Q:Why do you think these imagined innovations make the jump from page to the world we live in? Are there some new technologies you can imagine that you'd like to see become reality? What technology in modern speculative literature has the potential to become reality?

A: When these jumps from the page to reality in the world happen, they do so because the imagined innovations are utterly impressive, inspiring, and daring. Their kinetic energy is infectious inspiring inventors and technologists to attempt to reify them in the world. Offered up as plausible and attainable by how they're described (and the very fact that they are describable in the first place), it is no surprise that imaginary inventions would find their match in the ever-curious makers and would-be makers of the world.

These jumps also happen because, for the most part, readers know that speculative fiction writers have honed a knack for foresight. And many readers rely on this quality to become more prescient global citizens in an ever-changing world. Our speculative fiction writers are the unsung prophets among us.

As for new technologies that I can imagine and would like to see in reality well, I would like to see what Ill call intermediation technologies, which could be used, for example, between doctors and patients to create better communication and understanding. Too often, doctors make inaccurate diagnoses based on how patients answer questions, and whether the doctor believes those answers. Intermediation technologies would reconcile the fact that, while patients are, usually, laypersons in the medical field, they are also experts about certain aspects oftheir own bodies.

Say a patient comes in describing a nebulous abdominal pain using vocabulary that does not align with the doctors more specialized terminology and the doctor is not adept at translating the patient's vocabulary into medical terms. For that situation, Id like to see a visually compelling, user-friendly, hand-held digital device that presents a repertoire of diagnostic possibilities that the doctor and patient can consult and discuss together. Think of it as the medical version ofthe Shazam app that identifies music. But even beyond identification, this medical intermediation device would also further better communication, respect, and trust between doctors and patients.

Finally, thinking about imaginative tech with the potential to become reality, the 3D holographic human form that the Star Trek television series popularized is actually becoming reality, albeit still very costly at this stage. The recent transition to digital teaching and learning makes me wonder how much better "virtual" education would be if it was on a holographic platform one that enables more interaction, more eye movement, body language, and sense of presence in other words, more of the kind of holistic learning opportunities we experience in face-to-face environments.

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3 Questions: Sandy Alexandre on the literary roots of technological innovations - MIT News

The death of George Floyd by police in Minneapolis last week has caused an immediate response of grief and anger, as well as the examination by individuals and organisations across the world about how we respond to such deaths and the racism that they expose in Western society. Across the creative industries urgent questions have been asked about the slow response to calls for diversity and change, and what needs to happen now.

The instinctive initial response by many to Floyds death is to take to the streets and protest. Events are happening around the world, across America but also in London, Paris, Amsterdam and Berlin.

Photographers and filmmakers have been out capturing powerful scenes from the protests across the world:

PROTESTING FROM HOME

Yet during the pandemic, it can be difficult for people to protest physically. Mona Chalabi has been once again demonstrating the power that data can have to get to the heart of the matter in visuals online:

There are numerous petitions that can be signed, including the Justice for George Floyd petition. D&AD has put together a very useful resource list which includes other petitions as well as fundraising endeavours and wider reading. This can be found here.

And gal-dem has published a thoughtful piece on other ways to protest if you cant go out physically due to coronavirus. Protest has the function of agitating the state, though I believe its more moving function is one of collective catharsis, writes Melz. It allows us to come together as a collective and share in the grief and pain that we are all feeling. It gives us a place to channel and externalise the rage and hurt that runs through our veins each day in this white supremacist world. Still, the conflict remains how many more lives may we put at risk by taking to the streets during a pandemic? The piece then lists the many ways that people can channel grief and anger when physical protesting is not an option.

RESPONSES FROM BRANDS

As this New York Times piece points out, brands have begun responding to the cause, if somewhat warily. Theres a general trend toward executives in the C-suite being called out and pressure-tested by consumers who want to know where they stand theres an opportunity to differentiate not just on function, on whats a better mousetrap, but on values, says Americus Reed, a marketing professor at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania in the piece. Its smart theyre taking a stand, hopefully, because its moral, but also because they understand the long-term economic game.

And for brands that borrow heavily from black culture, the topic cannot be ignored, states influencer Jackie Aina in the piece. When it comes to relevant things happening, things you cant ignore like the Black Life Matters movement, police brutality or murders in our community, its crickets, and thats unacceptable, she said. If you are capitalising off of a culture, youre morally obligated to help them.

THE NEED FOR WIDER CHANGE

This moment is seeing a call for wider change across society, but also specifically in the creative industries with artists such as Campbell Addy, and Emmazed founder, Mo Mfinanga, calling for systemic change in how black creatives are treated in the industry.

In Vogue, UK editor Edward Enninful calls for recognition of the importance of cultivating an anti-racist agenda. This is an evolving conversation, writes Enninful, and it requires evolving education. We have to keep educating ourselves and our neighbours, or the atrocities wont stop. I do not condone the violence that is breaking out across America and other cities. I am not condoning the lootings. I support free speech, and the rights of people to protest, though I would caution that people make adequate safety arrangements in the light of the pandemic. I am convinced that we need to fight racism, to convert knowledge into anti-racism. And we need to do it together.

Fashion has a part to play in this, he continues. It occupies a unique place in the zeitgeist, and it has a singular ability to shift mindsets. I implore fashion brands, publications and retailers to employ more people from diverse backgrounds I truly believe this is the only way to effect real change. We need black people ingrained within the infrastructure of the fashion industry, not just on the other side of the camera or appearing on an Instagram feed. People need a seat at the table.

This is a viewpoint echoed in a recent piece in CR by Stormzy collaborator and writer Jude Yawson about racism in the UK. There is a grave and systematic error that pits people against each other, which has become the mainstay of the country, writes Yawson. If we want to reach a state of equality, the experiences of black and ethnic minorities must be recognised alongside wider Britishness. Whether its politically, or in the media, or in social media and its algorithms, creating our echo chambers of people this society as a whole needs to do better.

Diversity in the creative industries has been talked about for years, but, as is clear in the responses to Floyds death, change has not happened fast enough and there is a need for action as well as conversation. There is an opportunity here for the creative industries to respond to these terrible events by using its skills, talents and power to bring about real change and create a better world for us all.

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Black Lives Matter: Resources and Responses - Creative Review

Update 3 June 2020

After about 14 hours above $10,000, Bitcoin crashed back down to $9,500 as quickly as it went up.

It appears to have been for the same reason it rose in the first place: whales traded big against the prevailing futures positions, triggering a squeeze. Basically, a big price movement starts liquidating futures contracts, which adds fuel to whatever direction the market is already moving.

The whales giveth, the whales taketh.

Michael Novogratz's prediction: "When 10k goes it will move fast" ended up being correct twice in one day, on both the way up and the way down.

The article below has been left as it was originally published, way back in the heady days of 2 June 2020.

Bitcoin is finally back above US$10,000, for the first time since February 2020, shortly before the massive crash of March. It was straining mightily and unsuccessfully to get past $10,000 a couple of weeks ago, but today it just abruptly pinged from around $9,700 to $10,200 in an hour flat.

Seeing Bitcoin back above that psychological five-digit mark is a heartwarming thing. It feels like Bitcoin is back where it belongs now and that everything is all right in the world once again.

Of course, given the actual state of the world right now that just goes to show why the number one rule of trading is to not trust your feelings.

In that vein, let's look at several different analysts who felt like Bitcoin was going to break $10,000 before it happened, and why they felt that way.

Some analysts are feeling the wind in their hair as they ride the Bitcoin rollercoaster out of the channel set following the 2017 highs, suggesting that Bitcoin may be on track to fundamentally shift out of its current price range.

Source

The timing is impeccable, because it lines up uncannily with the predictions laid out by the stock to flow model of Bitcoin valuation.

More specifically, we hit the "red dot" phase of the model on 1/2 June (depending on timezone), as laid out by pseudonymous analyst PlanB, just hours before Bitcoin pumped above $10,000. So, quite a few of the "red dot" crowd were celebrating this price rise before it even happened.

"The red dot" refers to the period immediately after the Bitcoin halving. It's called "the red dot" because improvised symbolism is the cornerstone of all faiths including the Bitcoin religion, and because red is the colour of certain dots on the chart below.

Source

The coloured dots on this chart are monthly Bitcoin prices, with the colour indicating how long until the next halving, and how long since the last halving.

The darkest blue dots are Bitcoin prices the month before each halving, while the darkest red dots (of the kind that popped out today) come out in the month after each halving. So, wherever the blue flips to red, that indicates a halving. As you can see, red dots have very consistently predicted a major Bitcoin price run since as far back as 2012.

In short, the red dot says that if history repeats itself, Bitcoin should see a major ascent this year to break $100,000 sometime next year. And now Bitcoin popped up above $10,000 just hours after the first dark red dot since 2016.

The thing about the red dot idea is that it simply says market forces will ineffably propel Bitcoin to higher price tiers, and that the power of maths means Bitcoin is simply destined to rise. That theory existed long before the Federal Reserve overclocked its printing presses in response to everything that's happening in 2020.

This poses something of a philosophical dilemma for anyone who wants to believe that the stock to flow theory predicts Bitcoin prices, while also attributing its price rises to other factors like quantitative easing or the White House's reaction to the ongoing protests, because it suggests Bitcoin prices would be doing the same thing regardless of what's going on in the world.

Other experts successfully called the rise before it happened by looking at more earthly factors, citing the general state of the world as a driver of Bitcoin prices, just generally feeling the vibe in the air and presumably tasting Bitcoin trading volume on the wind.

The tightest prediction around probably belongs to Galaxy Digital's Michael Novogratz, who pulled off this call about an hour before Bitcoin prices jumped above $10,000.

Source

Bitcoin's "coiling" was pointed out by others, who noted that Bitcoin had been settling into a tighter price range over time, which usually heralds a sudden, big move in one direction or the other.

The tension in the air may have given it the push it needed to go up instead of down when the time came. It's worth noting that the exact timing of the rise lines up closely with some of the US president's more fiery statements of the day.

"There was a sharp spike in the price this morning as US President Trump spoke to the press regarding the ongoing protests, which have been unfolding in cities across America. In the speech, he proclaimed that he would mobilise all available federal resources civilian and military. This quickly made headlines around the world as the mobilisation of the military in the United States is a rare occurrence," points out eToro analyst Matthew de Corrado. "For cryptoasset investors, this may have signified an escalation in the tension, and has no doubt caused some uncertainty over what could transpire in the coming few days."

Novogratz's first prediction ("Bitcoin will rise to $10k") has come to fruition, but the second ("Bitcoin will rise even faster after $10k") is still in the making and may hinge on current affairs, de Corrado said.

"In my opinion, Bitcoin, typically responds to depreciation of currency, global uncertainty and governmental instability. As weve seen this morning, the threat of using military action may have had a bullish effect on the asset. Any further instability in the US could put further upward pressure on Bitcoin," he said.

Craig "TraderCobb" Cobb also felt the move coming a full day in advance, as foretold in the charts. Some pretty high cap altcoins have been making major gains lately, he noted, and when people take profit against them they'll be trading back into Bitcoin.

"People trading the Cardano bitcoin cross will be taking profits back to Bitcoin when they do. Cardano/Bitcoin added 50% in 2 weeks. Due to the relative size of Cardano market cap wise with a 1.9 billion token value, the recent move higher is a lot of money to potentially flow back to Bitcoin," he wrote roughly 24 hours before Bitcoin made its move.

"Another example is Ethereum over the same 2 week period which has put on an impressive 14.85% against Bitcoin. Ethereum is the second highest by market cap behind bitcoin with $25 billion to its name which is another large amount of money if profits were to be taken and put into Bitcoin."

"So here we have 2 of the big market cap players both having added impressive gains against Bitcoin recently. These moves will account for a large portion of the possible money flow back to Bitcoin," he predicted.

That's exactly what happened. Bitcoin's sudden ascent initially dragged altcoins up with it, but then after Bitcoin crested $10,000 a lot of money bailed from altcoins back to Bitcoin, pouring gasoline on the fire and giving Bitcoin the cash infusion it needed to convincingly stay above $10,000.

The gold line is Bitcoin, the light blue is ADA/BTC, the purple is ADA/USD.

ADABTC chart by TradingView

Here we have three completely very different predictive methods, all of which looked at completely different things but somehow managed to paint the same picture, flagging down a price rise hours before it happened.

Something else they all have in common is that they're all expecting further rises.

The stock to flow model, or "the red dot" if you're feeling symbolic, predicts future rises because the unstoppable weight of sheer maths says Bitcoin prices should go up, and that's what the most consistent trend in Bitcoin says will happen.

Meanwhile, Novogratz is predicting a further rise because that's where the zeitgeist is leading us, and Cobb suggests that Bitcoin at $10,000 could reawaken wider media interest and bring some new money in.

"We really need to see Bitcoin above $10,000 to get the media back and new money flowing in," he wrote. "So, the question for bitcoin is how can the current market players get us above $10,000 to get the media chirping and the new money in?"

"Bitcoin is the headline grabber, you wont see anything in the news about the recent move of Cardano. Bitcoin needs to break above $10,000 for the media to come back to it."

The Bitcoin world appears to be feeling about as bullish as it ever has. But on the other hand, past performance does not guarantee future results, no matter how much it feels like it should.

It's also possible that whales deliberately orchestrated this rise specifically hoping that a break above $10,000, in conjunction with the red dot and the general vibes of the times, would be enough to spur some retail FOMO. There are enough mysterious whales in Bitcoin's ocean to move prices in all kinds of strange ways.

Plus, when we're asking whether Bitcoin is going to go up or down right now, the wisdom of the red dot is quite limited. It's all about tracing movements across years (with a yet-unknown degree of accuracy), rather than the day-to-day and week-to-week here. No matter how compelling or historically accurate it is, it can't indicate short, sharp moves of the kind we saw today.

"While the stock-to-flow analysis produced by PlanB has done very well to date in tracking the price of Bitcoin and predicting its future movements, my immediate concern would be correlating intraday movements in relation to a model that looks at data spanning multiple years," de Corrado said. "Investors should also remember that any historical data is not an indicator of future performance."

In the end, it seems the most accurate way of predicting the future is to wait until it happens.

Disclosure: The author holds BNB, BTC at the time of writing.

Disclaimer: This information should not be interpreted as an endorsement of cryptocurrency or any specific provider, service or offering. It is not a recommendation to trade. Cryptocurrencies are speculative, complex and involve significant risks they are highly volatile and sensitive to secondary activity. Performance is unpredictable and past performance is no guarantee of future performance. Consider your own circumstances, and obtain your own advice, before relying on this information. You should also verify the nature of any product or service (including its legal status and relevant regulatory requirements) and consult the relevant Regulators' websites before making any decision. Finder, or the author, may have holdings in the cryptocurrencies discussed.

Picture: Getty Images

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3 people who correctly predicted $10,000 Bitcoin (and how) - finder.com.au

Last week we completed our countdown of the Top 250 Songs of the 2010s. Whether you agreed or disagreed, loved or hated our countdown, hopefully you enjoyed the ride but now its your turn. The votes have been cast, the results have been tallied and its time to reveal the 411 Readers Poll results.

Note:The readers poll has no limitations in terms of artists or tracks. It is also worth pointing out that when it comes to voting for songs (compared to albums) the voting gets spread incredibly thin. So tracks 20-15 received far fewer votes than tracks 14-1.

Foster The People didnt feature on the 411 list, but there is no denying that Pumped Up Kicks is one of the premier indie anthems of the 2010s that somehow slipped through our net. Listening back in 2020, Pumped Up Kicks feels very distant sonically more connected to the indie and psych revivals of the 2000s than 2010s strange adventures in sound.

Justin Timberlake is another artist that didnt make the cut on the 411 countdown, Ill happily take the blame for this one: reviewingMan Of The Woodsfor two different publication likely erased all my positive memories of JT which is a genuine shame as Mirrors is an ambitious, seductive and, by modern standards, understated R&B love letter.

M.A.A.D. City finished 2nd on the official 411 countdown and you can read our mini-essay about Kendricks street level teenaged anthem here.

Lordes Liability featured in 411s Top 10, but the trouble with picking a narrative driven album track is that you leave out an artists globe conquering bangers. Lordes whirlwind moment of dancefloor insecurity and seduction would have undoubtedly made our countdown were it not for the one track per artist rule. Check out our original review of Green Light

Kendrick Lamar finished second in 411s countdown and truth be told there were at least 10 tracks in contention for M.A.A.D. Citys placement. Swimming Pools (Drank) is one of Kendricks most successful crossover singles: a sorrowful reflection on alcoholism and the perils of using alcohol as an escape from the trauma of the streets.

Following in M.A.A.D. Citys footsteps, Beyonces zeitgeist capturing anthem, Formation, features on both the 411 and readers poll. Read more.

Nearly an exact match, the bombastic brilliance and cocksure swagger of Mark Ronsons Uptown Funk finishes just one place higher in the readers selection than it did on the 411 countdown.

Theres no denying Adeles dominance in the 2010s and while 411 ultimately opted for Rolling In The Deep few would question the inclusion of Set Fire To The Rain. This bulldozing anthem drives through the downpour in the verse before soaring triumphant during its arena shattering chorus. Set Fire To The Rain isnt Adeles biggest hit, but it is the sneaky favorite of millions of music fans the world over.

Frank Oceans dreamy and intoxicating rumination on his first gay kiss, Thinkin Bout You, becomes the latest track place on both countdowns. Read our full thoughts here.

An exact match! Rolling In The Deep finishes 11th in both countdowns and as a tease for what is to come, this is the one and only time our countdowns will (exactly) agree.

All Too Well which I think we can safely label Taylor Swifts finest songwriting accomplishment finished 138th in 411s countdown, but stands as the gatekeeper to the top 10 in the readers poll. Its worth noting that both Taylor Swift and Frank Ocean received a huge number of individual votes (albeit typically lower placements) from the readers and would have finished much high in an unranked vote. Read 411s take on All Too Well here.

Harry Styles tender, weightless and beautiful Bowie-esque ballad was an alternate on the 411 list, but its easy to see why this glorious 70s throwback ranks so highly among readers. This was the moment when the former One Direction star made it clear he would not follow Zayn Malik in chasing modern R&B trends, instead hed delve into the British rock canon for inspiration. Styles decision remains bold, while his peers found themselves wallowing in 90s revivalism he cast his net far broader to write retro-futuristic pop music that at the decades end feels more timeless than anything his former bandmates or celebrity peers have managed to produce.

This was a genuinely tough choice. Daft Punk finished 6th on the official 411 countdown with their mesmeric love letter to art of creation itself Giorgio by Moroder. The trouble with limiting yourself to one track per artist is that you are forced to choose between the grand artistic statement and the pristine banger. In many ways Im relieved the readers backed Get Lucky, both sides of Daft Punks sound deserve celebration. Nile Rodgers delicate disco guitar forms the backbone of this airy but irresistible anti-EDM anthem. Get Lucky was the sound of the summer in 2013 and every summer since.

One of the biggest climbers between countdowns leaping from no.94 to a 7th placed finished, but that should come as no surprise. Not only is Midnight City an incadescent peach of a track that thrives on both a packed dancefloor and alone through headphones, M83 are without question one of our readers favorite acts. Read our full thoughts here.

Its no shock to see Alright place so highly, it is unquestionable Kendrick Lamars most important track. Overnight Alright was transformed into an anthem for the burgeoning Black Lives Matters movement, with crowds of protestors and mourners across America chanting we gon be alright in unison. The perfect blend of an unsettling-yet-trippy arrangement with a wild, swerving verse that leads to a chorus that speaks profoundly to faith, communal spirit and resilience in the face of indignity. Alright believes in a brighter future while acknowledging the soul crushing brutality that must be endured en route to that better tomorrow.

The deft and understated in its magnificence, Holocene leaps eight places to secure a top five finish in the readers poll. Read our full thoughts on this soulful and slight wonder here.

I braced myself dogs abuse when placing Gotye in the upper echelon of the 411 countdown. I genuinely thought our readers might find the idea of having a one hit wonder in the top 10 absurd, but little did I know that they would rank the pained post-break-up angst of Somebody That I Used To Know even higher than I did!

Gotye and Robyn remain back to back, but have been bumped up a handful of positions. Robyns tears on the dancefloor act of defiance, Dancing On My Own, sits atop the aggregated song of the decade list (when all the critics lists are taken into consideration), so its no surprise to see Robyn triumphing on both 411 lists.

Kanye West and Runaway just misses out on being a consensus no.1. Read our full thoughts on Runaway here.

The readers vote was a two horse race between Runaway and Royals. Similar to Get Luckys appearance earlier earlier in this countdown, I am glad that the readers have recognised Lordes breakout hit single as the choice between bangers and profound album cuts was incredibly difficult to make. Royals is one of the defining anthems of the decade as Lorde ruminates on the strange disconnect between the glitz laden life thats sold to modern teenagers through pop and hip hop and the mundanity of their actual real world existence.

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411 Readers Poll Results: The Top 20 Songs Of The 2010s - 411mania.com