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Monthly Archives: June 2020
Toxic narrative on cops is false and other commentary – New York Post
Posted: June 6, 2020 at 5:44 pm
Protest journal: A Toxic Narrative on Cops
At City Journal, Rafael A. Mangual sees irony in gripes that attention paid to the relative handful of violent agitators distorts the image of an otherwise peaceful movement even as the violence by cops that sparked the protests similarly doesnt fairly characterize law enforcement. Police are not perfect, he admits, but to bridge the gap between protesters and cops, destructive hyperbole about police violence needs to be recognized for what it is. Data on police use of force predominantly reveal professionalism and restraint, suggesting, for instance, that in 2018, police in America applied deadly force with a firearm in just 0.003 percent of arrests. To prevent more destruction and anarchy, the debate needs to be grounded in data rather than hyperbole.
While President Trump rails against mail-in voting, many Republican election officials are expanding it anyway as well they should, argues RealClearPolitics A.B. Stoddard. For one thing, Trumps claim that vote-by-mail is rife with fraud is false: The conservative Heritage Foundation found only 204 cases of the fraudulent use of absentee ballots out of the 250 million ballots cast in the last 20 years. And mail-in voting can benefit Republicans in places like Florida, whose many senior citizens are a critical bloc of Trumps support and the most susceptible age group to COVID-19. Even though many Republicans back the change, though, any effort to scale up mail-in voting will be difficult especially without pressure from Trump and the Republican National Committee.
Reasons Matt Welch rolls his eyes at the The New York Times, supposedly the serious journalistic institution in the United States, which published an article claiming its own employees were scared that a Times op-ed by Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) would threaten their very lives. Such a claim just shows how many in the media are noisily abandoning liberalism: Even outlets that once waved the flag of provocative viewpoint-diversity have long since become barely distinguishable enforcers of a joyless orthodoxy. If an editor dares to commit the sin of expressing a Wrongthink or publishing a Deplorable, he or she now has to make a full public confession or a cowed explanation. If that cramped cowardice is the future of journalism, warns Welch, journalism has no future.
Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms has been telling protesters things they dont want to hear, applauds National Reviews Jim Geraghty: Theyre risking their lives by gathering in large numbers during the pandemic, and their violence and looting are tainting the cause they claim to stand for. Many elected leaders who keep insisting they stand with the protesters and support them are playing along with the fantasy that the protests are somehow less dangerous than other gatherings, even when we have direct evidence to the contrary. Geraghty wonders: Do our leaders really love the protesters, as they claim? If you love someone, after all, you do as Bottoms is doing: Tell him the truth especially when he doesnt want to hear it.
Mars is within reach, cheers Kevin Mooney at the Washington Examiner, and its thanks in no small part to the public-private partnership between NASA and SpaceX. The successful launch of the SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule and docking at the International Space Station mark a turning point. As aerospace engineer Robert Zubrin, who founded the Mars Society, explains in his book The Case for Space, breakthroughs in rocketry are opening new avenues for the commercialization of space and manned missions leading to the colonization of the Red Planet. Zubrin believes we can establish our first small outpost on Mars within a decade. Thats optimistic, concedes Mooney. But over the past days, the case for space has suddenly become more compelling, exciting and believable than since the Apollo program which was a while ago.
Compiled by Karl Salzmann & Adam Brodsky
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Dealing with a wild swing of emotions | Columns – Frederick News Post
Posted: at 5:44 pm
Theyre throwing a lot at us lately almost too much to know what to make of it or how to deal with it. Were dealing with fear and worry over the coronavirus; elation and excitement with the SpaceX launch; and more recently, despair and disappointment with the police killing of a black man in Minneapolis and the reaction of protest and rioting.
The protests should have been expected. They are a protected and legitimate avenue to join others in addressing grievances and demanding change. But their cause is considerably weakened when the protests turned into rioting, vandalism, arson and looting. One bright spot was the attempt by some of the protesters to try to prevent some of the illegal activity and in one case even form a barricade around a business to curtail the looting. The governors and mayors of the hardest hit areas are blaming, without proof, non-local extremists for the worst of the incidents.
Then there is the extremist in the White House, who asked the governors to crack down hard on the protesters, but has been sadly lacking in any leadership role, like trying to bring the nation together during a volatile time.
The most bizarre image was the presidents meaningless, ridiculous stroll from the White House to St. Johns Episcopal Church on Monday, surrounded by security, after the streets had been cleared by police. He stood in front of the church, held up a Bible and gave a short speech before posing for photos with some White House officials. Not sure what the purpose of that was.
Regardless of the outcome, most of the damage has been done to our comfortable assurance that we are making so much progress in race relations. We may think weve come a long way, but recent events havent proven that to be the case. Its hard to imagine that after years of similar incidents, followed by this can never happen again, extensive training and education by law enforcement, it does happen again. No doubt, this is not the last time we will see a similar incident, followed by rage and protests. You have to wonder what it will take to bring about meaningful change.
These painful incidents of peaceful protests getting out of hand, of the threat of military intervention and a vacuum at the leadership position, is only compounded by the late and uneven response to the coronavirus pandemic. Its hard to imagine that this previously unknown virus has managed to kill more than 100,000 of us, and were still struggling to find ways to effectively deal with it until a vaccine is developed.
In the middle of all this we got a temporary lift. At any other time, a successful launch of a private/public mission to the International Space Station would be an uplifting event, a positive step in our quest to advance science and reach beyond the bounds of Earth. One of the commentators at the liftoff called it a triumph over fear when we need it. Its possible that we could have found a cheaper triumph over fear than this overall $2.5 billion project. And our reaction to the pandemic is probably more like a determination to deal with it effectively and contain it before a predicted return in the fall.
The money spent on our revived space program, supposedly designed to return to the moon do we really need another moon trip? or to explore other planets, could be better spent on exploring solutions to some of our problems here on the ground.
Some that come to mind are ensuring that all our citizens have enough to eat; have affordable and safe housing; that all of us rich or poor, of whatever age have access to the best medical care available; that our children have equal access to education; that our seniors are not warehoused in inadequate nursing homes; that we are prepared medically for the next pandemic; that our bridges, roads, tunnels, dams, railroads, utilities and whatever else is considered infrastructure, are safe and maintained on a regular basis.
Thats probably a short list. But a lot of this could be accomplished by trading the money spent on one or more whiz-bang space shots for some down-to-earth fixes. In place of colonizing Mars we could work on colonizing our planet with some vision, hope and leadership.
Bill Pritchard, who worked in community journalism for 40 years, writes from Frederick. Reach him at billpritchard.1@gmail.com
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Rejuvenated space program puts Mars within reach – Washington Examiner
Posted: at 5:44 pm
Mars is within reach of Americas manned space program, thanks in no small part to the public-private partnership between NASA and SpaceX that was on display this weekend.
In fact, the founder and president of a nonprofit group devoted to the exploration and settlement of the Red Planet is convinced that a manned mission could take place much sooner than is commonly thought.
An aerospace engineer by trade, Robert Zubrin has gained notoriety by urging mission planners to embrace a vision for interplanetary travel that makes it possible for NASA to lighten the load through space by exploiting the natural resources available on Mars. Zubrin founded the Colorado-based Mars Society in 1998 for the purpose of galvanizing public interest in establishing a permanent human presence on the planet.
The successful launch of the SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule from the Kennedy Space Center on Saturday, and its subsequent docking with the International Space Station about 19 hours later, marks a critical turning point in the American space program for sure. (The video for the SpaceX docking with the space station is available here.)
As Zubrin makes clear in his latest book, recent breakthroughs in rocket technology are opening up new avenues for the commercialization of space and for manned missions to the moon and Mars in the not-too-distant future.
The Case for Space: How the Revolution in Spaceflight Opens Up a Future of Limitless Possibility is, in some respects, as much about economics as it is about space. Zubrin credits Elon Musk, the founder and CEO of SpaceX, for the role he has played in engineering reusable rockets that can open the way to affordable, routine access to space. In his book, Zubrin describes SpaceX as the most remarkable aerospace company ever. He also discusses the technological and bureaucratic impediments that have prevented space launches from becoming more economical up until now.
The central institutional impediment to space progress is the system of cost-plus contracting the government has put into place in the very foolish belief that the price of hardware could best be kept under control by regulating contractors to charge their documented costs plus a modest set profit rate, Zubrin said. The private sector is needed, he argues, to create the right set of incentives. In the free enterprise world, manufacturers increase profit by cutting costs, he tells readers. In the cost-plus contractor world, manufacturers increase profit by increasing costs.
With the United States now back in the launch business, there is ample room for private entrepreneurs to step in with more advanced reusable space vehicles that will continue to lower the cost of entering space.
So, what about the future?
Zubrin is a proponent of what he calls a Mars Direct strategy for space travel he first outlined in 1989 that relies on relatively small spacecraft that can be launched directly from Earth to Mars. His plan has become even more feasible in recent years with the development of the SpaceX Falcon Heavy booster and the discovery of large quantities of water on Mars.
Instead of lugging fuel supplies through space in large, cumbersome vehicles, Zubrin would make use of the carbon dioxide, water, and other key ingredients already available in substantial supplies in the Martian atmosphere and environment to create the fuel needed for the return voyage. Thats the short version of how such a strategy would be executed.
Zubrin goes into detail about what kind of payload would be included in the Earth return vehicle and how the chemical process creating the fuel would work. He anticipates that the astronauts would explore the surface for 1.5 years before returning home. But the ultimate goal is to colonize Mars permanently. The raw materials available on the planet suggest this is an achievable goal. Zubrin points to experiments that show plants can grow in greenhouses with CO2 at Martian pressures to suggest that enough food could be produced to sustain human populations.
Mars is endowed with all the resources needed to support not only life but the development of a technological civilization, Zubrin writes. "Mars can be settled. For our generation and many that will follow, Mars is the New World.
Back on the space station, NASA officials view extended stays as a primer for missions to Mars. How long astronauts must remain in space depends on where Earth and Mars are in orbit when a mission is launched and on the power of the propulsion system. NASA documents estimate the trip could take as long as nine months.
But with SpaceX in mind, Zubrin entertains scenarios where the trip could be shorter.
Exploring Mars requires no miraculous new technologies, no orbiting spaceports and no gigantic interplanetary space cruisers, he writes. We can establish our first small outpost on Mars within a decade.
Thats optimistic, but the past few days demonstrate that the case for space has suddenly become more compelling, exciting, and believable than it has been at any other time since the Apollo program. That was a while ago.
Kevin Mooney (@KevinMooneyDC) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner's Beltway Confidential blog. He is an investigative reporter in Washington, D.C., who writes for several national publications.
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Basic Income activism in the United States | BIEN – Basic Income News
Posted: at 5:43 pm
Michael Howard, Co-ordinator of USBIG, has written an article about increasing Basic Income activism in the United States.
Two years ago, if one were to speak of a basic income movement, one might be accused of hyperbole. USBIG was able to muster support for annual congresses, in cooperation with the Basic Income Canada Network, and disseminate information and analysis through the website and newsflash. Then came the Yang campaign, putting UBI on the national agenda.
To read the article, click here.
Michael Howard has written 5 articles.
Michael W. Howard is Professor of Philosophy at the University of Maine, USA. He is the coordinator of the US Basic Income Guarantee Network, co-editor of Basic Income Studies, and co-editor, with Karl Widerquist, of two books on Alaska's Permanent Fund Dividend.
The views expressed in this Op-Ed piece are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of Basic Income News or BIEN. BIEN and Basic Income News do not endorse any particular policy, but Basic Income News welcomes discussion from all points of view in its Op-Ed section.
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When All Men Are Paid for Existing: Universal Basic Income Has Arrived – National Review
Posted: at 5:43 pm
(Pixabay)Such an expansion of the welfare state would have once kept conservatives awake at night.
Amid all the momentous events that have defined the coronavirus pandemic, the decision by both the Trump administration and, in near-unanimous votes, both houses of Congress to institute a stimulus program an element of which amounts to a de facto universal basic income (UBI) is perhaps the least appreciated.
Paying individuals a flat check of $1,200, is, effectively, a one-time UBI. Legislators are already considering a second round.
The long-term import of this is significant. At a time when the two parties can agree on almost nothing, they came together to support a policy that up until recently was restricted largely (but certainly not exclusively) to the Silicon Valley Left.
Watching this go through brought to mind Rudyard Kiplings 1919 poem The Gods of the Copybook Headings. Kipling contrasts the Gods of the Marketplace, meaning the socially acceptable wishful thinking, with the Gods of the Copybook Headings, who remind us of the eternal truths we routinely abandon for a more fashionable pantheon. He concludes with these lines:
And that after this is accomplished, and the brave new world beginsWhen all men are paid for existing and no man must pay for his sins,As surely as Water will wet us, as surely as Fire will burn,The Gods of the Copybook Headings with terror and slaughter return!
Sound familiar? In a few short months, we went from UBI (the idea of giving almost every adult citizen a check) being an idea favored only at the margins to its being the official policy of a Republican administration backed by a Republican-controlled Senate.
The counterargument is clear. These are extreme times. This is not UBI but merely a temporary support measure for working families in exceptional circumstances. It is an argument that might have more force had not conservative political parties in the Western world found it so difficult to rein in an expanding welfare state that can no longer be afforded, something that became all too obvious in the battles over austerity after the European debt crisis.
Since Americas current UBI was promoted as an essential element in a stimulus program, it seems reasonable to assume that, whatever is being said to the contrary, it will be more difficult to end it until the economy gets strong enough to no longer need stimulus. The list of temporary spending programs instituted during a crisis but later discontinued is distressingly short.
Fearing the electoral consequences of challenging this regime, many conservative parties of the Western world seem to have given up on the task of decreasing the size of government. In the United Kingdom, Prime Minister Boris Johnsons Conservative Party has made protecting the U.K.s public health-care system one of the cornerstones of his government.
The Trump administration has signed relief plans totaling over $2 trillion, in an environment where were already spending $4.45 trillion a year. The small-government that once defined conservative politics appears to have fallen out of fashion.
UBI programs such as the individual $1,200 checks are simply the next step in the evolution of the welfare state. The preexisting welfare systems (whatever their faults) are designed to act as safety nets, but the checks in this case are universal they go to people who havent fallen into the safety net as well as to those who have. It isnt an unemployment benefit, federal jobs guarantee, work-for-welfare regime, or any other welfare system. Those at least maintain the pretense of encouraging the recipient to be self-reliant.
An expansion of the welfare state of the type represented by these checks would have once kept conservatives awake at night. But wed put our emphasis on the used to, as conservative parties have been on their current path for years; it just took an excuse, provided now by the pandemic and accompanying shutdowns, to push them off the cliff. We might look back on the societal consequences of the pandemic not as revolutionary but as acceleratory.
Unfortunately, we have been doing the bidding of Kiplings Gods of the Marketplace for quite some time now, by acting as though we can infinitely expand the federal government and suffer no consequences. Had the Western world not abused monetary and fiscal policy during our past crises and recoveries, we would have had more margin, more room for error in dealing with this one. But we treated peacetime like wartime, and now that a true war is here, we find our swords are dull.
The United States is straining against the limits of sound policy and relying on the credulity of bond investors after decades of growth of the federal government in a way and to a size that now threatens our fiscal stability. Even if this first draft of UBI does not last past the pandemic, the Trump administration has normalized the practice of giving every American a check solely for existing. Dont be surprised if 2022 and 2024 feature politicians far more prominent than former Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang running campaigns on Universal Basic Income.
If a Republican president can do it, why not a Democratic one?
A pandemic should prompt some introspection, if nothing else. While it is far from clear how things will turn out and how severe the consequences of our policies will be, the coronavirus and its repercussions have demonstrated once again that we are not invincible. The laws of economics are not suspended just because theres a crisis.
Jerry Bowyer is the president of Bowyer Research and editor of Townhall Finance. Charles Bowyer is a risk analyst for Bowyer Research and a writer for Townhall Finance.
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Local funds model the racial reckoning and renewal central to the COVID recovery – ImpactAlpha
Posted: at 5:43 pm
ImpactAlpha, June 3 If the COVID crisis has laid bare longstanding inequities, the widespread protests over the police killing of George Floyd are pushing racial equity to the center of the COVID recovery.
Just as long-standing inequities have left black people disproportionately at risk to the virus, the lockdown has been particularly devastating to Black-owned businesses that are heavily concentrated in the service economy in hospitality, retail, wellness and other high-touch businesses. The number of working African American business owners in the U.S. has fallen by more than 40% in the pandemic, far more than for other groups. And these are the same kind of businesses that have struggled to access federal relief.
Impact investors and corporate leaders are calling for bold action for racial justice. All businesses are being closely watched for how they treat workers, customers, communities and other stakeholders. A growing chorus is demanding a bailout of people, not just corporations.
Racial lens investing, with both private and public funds, both equity and debt, has never been more timely.
Get up, stand up: Impact investors speak out for racial justice
The blueprints for a racially inclusive recovery already are taking shape in communities across the country. In Oakland, Calif., Boston, and New Mexico, local funds such as Runway Project, Ujima Fund and the Boston Impact Initiative are doing the kind of deep, innovative, relationship-based work that is needed to begin to heal racial inequities and trauma.
Such new revivalists, are modeling solutions that can be rolled out widely, to speed the recovery of people and families, as well as businesses. That includes universal basic income for black founders, people guarantee pools and sharing power in investment decision-making and ownership the financial infrastructure that is going to love black and brown people as Runways Jessica Norwood puts it.
The pandemic is an accelerator and amplifier of everything, says Deborah Frieze of Boston Impact Initiative. If we cant figure out how to respond now, when will we?
Runway was established to address the racial wealth gap. Its portfolio is an example of the potential for Black entrepreneurs when they have access to capital, mentoring and a support network that has too often been out of reach.
For Small Business Week in early May, the Runway Project had planned to celebrate the strides made by the Black-owned businesses in its portfolio, from Essence of Flowers, a locally-sourced floral business to Hox Uniforms, which makes custom team uniforms. Instead, the loan fund found itself scrambling to keep them afloat as the COVID crisis shut down large swaths of the economy.
We were trying to grow businesses, now were trying to stop the loss, says Jessica Norwood, who founded Runway in 2016 to tackle the gap in friends & family funding for Black entrepreneurs. COVID has changed everything.
Starting in Oakland, Calif. and expanding to Boston, Norwood and her team have spent the past few years modeling a different kind of financial system that is attuned to the needs of underserved communities and the historic legacy of social and economic discrimination they are trying to overcome.
Jessica Norwood: Believe in you money for black entrepreneurs
When COVID hit, the first order of business was to speed relief to small businesses whose revenues evaporated almost overnight. Small, local funds were among the parallel system of first financial responders. Norwood and her team conducted wellness checks and immediately deferred all loans and interest payments from its 30 or so borrowers for six months. (Its standard loan terms include a 2-year interest-only period).
They helped portfolio companies apply for federal aid via banking partners such as Self-Help Credit Union and Berkshire Bank. And they offered strategic and marketing support through partner Uptima Business Bootcamp, an Oakland-based accelerator cooperative, so that businesses could retool for the new socially distant world.
Even more was needed to stem the loss of income for Runways business owners, many of whom are sole proprietors. The answer: six months of no strings attached payment or, universal basic income for Black business owners.
We wanted to create spaciousness to pivot, reimagine, create a new business plan for the post-COVID world, says Norwood. UBI reflects our belief in choosing trust and relationships over bureaucracy and evaluation, and doubling down on what it means to be friends and family.
That support made all the difference for Ariana Marbley, the founder of Esscents of Flowers, a local flower delivery service in East Oakland. Marbley had entered 2020 with a full schedule of events and weddings, but as COVID took hold, one by once they cancelled or postponed. She reluctantly applied for loans, but was turned down by bank after bank.
The monthly payments from Runway have relieved the stress and allowed her to focus on marketing. I felt for the first time in a long time that I was taken care of, that the business was taken care, says Marbley. Its not until times like this that you realize how deep that support and love runs.
Shes returning the favor, in a sense, by handing out yellow roses with a message of affirmation to Black East Oakland residents grieving over the killing of George Floyd.
Oaklands community capitalists are modeling an inclusive economy
Runway was inspired in part by Aisha Nyandoros Magnolia Mothers Trust, which distributes $1,000 a month for a year to twenty families in Jackson, Mississippi. The city of Stockton, Calif., has also experimented with $500 universal basic income payments to low-income residents. In the face of the COVID crisis, Stockton has extended the program, which was set to wind down this summer, through January.
Runway was able to raise the money to fund these programs in less than a month from longtime funders including RSF Social Finance and Candides Olamina Fund.
In Boston, Deborah Frieze conducted resiliency tests with the 30 portfolio companies of the Boston Impact Initiative, the charitable loan fund she founded to help close the racial wealth divide. Only four have had to completely close (seven were deemed essential and a dozen or so were able to operate remotely). But some teetered on the brink after gearing up for big contracts with hard-hit industries like airlines that were put on hold. All told, 200 employees suffered a full or partial loss of income.
Her first imperative was to throw out a lifeline for workers, many of them women of color, undocumented immigrants, formerly incarcerated or part-time employees who lacked savings and might not be eligible for federal aid. Frieze worked with her lawyers to structure what she calls a People Guarantee Pool to provide a one-time $1,200 non-taxable gift to portfolio company employees (those who lost partial income received $600).
At the same time, she instituted a blanket three-month principal and interest forgiveness for business owners starting April 1, which could be extended, restructured or deferred further as circumstances required.
BII also worked with portfolio companies to help them preserve cash and renegotiate rents and other expenses.
As a small fund, we can actually wrap our arms around the entire set of companies in our portfolio, says Frieze, who raised $162,000 in grants to fund the peoples guarantee pool and another $230,000 in recoverable grants for the loan forgiveness programs. Some donations came from MBA 1200, where Harvard and other MBA students or alumni donated part of their government relief checks.
That kind of unconventional thinking is a hallmark of BII. The fund deploys a creative mix of debt and equity financing to achieve its goals. Rather than lavishing perks on its biggest investors, it prioritizes the small, retail investors with higher interest rates and more loss protection.
Those that can least afford to lose the money should be de-risked the most, says Frieze. And those who have the most can take on more risk, either a lower rate or higher risk.
How community investment funds are building resiliency to disasters, pandemics and economic shocks
BII helped incubate and launch the Boston Ujima Fund, which is democratically controlled by community members in Bostons working class neighborhoods, who vote on impact objectives and investment decisions. Ujima has created its own relief fund, the Ujima Boston Worker and Resident Care Fund, that will issue one-time payments to voting members, businesses and employees impacted by COVID.
Now, Frieze is turning her attention to the recovery phase, which will be equally hard on business owners of color that have traditionally struggled to access capital but will need to invest in order to re-open. BII is looking to raise a $2.5 million Business Resilience Fund fund to originate zero-percent working capital loans to fund an inclusive recovery.
The recovery has just begun. But the models these small funds are designing and testing point the way to a recovery and system rooted in a different set of values and beliefs. If we understood ourselves as interdependent, wed be looking at, how can I ensure that my suppliers stay healthy? My customers and employees? says Frieze.
The COVID crisis may speed up the development of infrastructure to nurture and support entrepreneurs of color. We really leaned into our values at this time and it made all the difference, says Norwood. There is another way and world possible, and its happening right now. We all feel so much stronger.
The kind of deep, relationship-based work does not necessarily scale. Thats why Runway is evolving its model to support more communities of practice and moving the needle on what it means to build a repair economy and infrastructure that loves black and brown businesses.
Frieze has launched a fund-building cohort to share BIIs experience with others looking to create their own place-based and racial justice funds. A dozen teams spanning Baltimore to the Twin Cities to New Mexico have been meeting virtually since April. Many are speeding up their timelines and prototyping funds in realtime to deal with the COVID fallout.
As Norwood says, I dont believe we will make it on the other side of this COVID crisis if we dont all make it.
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Democrats move within striking range of taking the Senate, forecasts say – NBC News
Posted: at 5:41 pm
WASHINGTON The Senate landscape has improved so much for Democrats that top party operatives are calling and texting one another to say they wish the election were held today.
Election Day is still five months away, but recent polls, fundraising deficits and other problems for Republican incumbents have diminished their prospects and opened up several possible avenues for Democrats to take control of the chamber.
I would rather be the Democrats than Republicans right now, said Jessica Taylor, the Senate editor of the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election forecaster. Democrats have expanded the map and put Republicans on defense even in some very red states.
The stakes are enormous for the legislative agenda of the next president a re-elected Donald Trump or apparent Democratic nominee Joe Biden, who leads in national polls and most swing states as well as the future of the courts. Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, the leader of the liberal wing, turns 88 next year, and the next Senate might get to confirm her successor.
Trump's struggles in historically Republican states, like Arizona and Georgia, are creating collateral damage for his party's Senate candidates. Public skepticism of Trump's handling of the pandemic, and a Biden's expanding lead since the nationwide backlash to George Floyd's death, has put many GOP Senate candidates in a difficult position. They're forced to navigate a polarizing president whose ardent supporters they cannot afford to alienate and whose skeptics they'll likely need to attract to win.
Democrats currently have 47 seats four short of an outright majority and three shy of a controlling number should Biden win as his vice president could cast any tie-breaking votes. Theyre more likely than not to lose one seat in Alabama, held by Sen. Doug Jones, but have lots of pickup opportunities. GOP-held seats in Arizona, Colorado, Maine and North Carolina are rated toss up by the Cook Political Report.
Republicans are defending another five seats in Iowa, Kansas, Montana and two in Georgia that are in play but lean GOP, while Democrats are defending a seat in Michigan, where theyre favored. Of the 11 most competitive seats, Republicans are defending nine and Democrats two.
A few months ago, Democrats felt uncertain about winning the majority as Sens. Cory Gardner of Colorado and Susan Collins of Maine are the only Republican targets in states Trump lost in 2016.
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Lately theyre feeling so good that Biden said at a fundraiser last week that he believes Democrats will pick up six Senate seats, without elaborating, according to a pool report.
For the moment, all of the things that need to happen for Democrats to take control of the Senate are happening, said Guy Cecil, chairman of the Democratic super PAC Priorities USA, which plans to spend more than $200 million to win the White House and Senate. Im optimistic that we can win back the Senate.
Some GOP operatives fear that races like Colorado and Arizona once thought to be close are slipping away while Maine and North Carolina are becoming too close for comfort.
The nonpartisan newsletter Inside Elections rates Gardner's seat as "tilt Democratic."
Collins, meanwhile, did not join Trump during his visit to Maine on Friday, although she denied that the president was hurting her chances of re-election. But she said Democrats' attacks on her have had an impact as she has been out-raised and out-spent: "Its the barrage of unfounded falsehoods that have taken a toll," she said.
Arizona's Republican Sen. Martha McSally has consistently trailed former astronaut Mark Kelly, husband of former Rep. Gabby Giffords, since last August, including by 13 points in a new Fox News survey.
And in North Carolina, Thom Tillis, the GOP incumbent, and his Democratic opponent, former state Sen. Cal Cunningham, were statistically tied in two recent polls.
A Montana State University poll in April found that state's Democratic governor, Steve Bullock, leading Republican Sen. Steve Daines by 7 points after Bullock's late entry breathed life into a red-state race that Democrats had all but written off.
And in Georgia, appointed Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler, sworn in this year, drew criticism for stock trades made on her behalf after early coronavirus briefings, for which shes been cleared by the Justice Department. Loeffler, who said she was unaware of the transactions at the time, faces a contentious "jungle primary" that includes Republican Rep. Doug Collins.
Republicans say the political environment will change as coronavirus lockdowns continue to ease after claiming more than 100,000 lives and Americans start to return to work.
Where we stand today is not an accurate picture of where we will be, said GOP consultant Brad Todd, who counts Tillis and Gardner as clients. We've been in such an abnormal position for the past 60 days that projecting it forward is careless, if not hubris.
Todd said Republicans will be helped by elevating the question of which party voters trust to rebuild the economy.
"I don't see anybody thinking that by October the economy has bounced back completely, he said.
National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesman Jesse Hunt said most Democratic candidates have not yet faced the scrutiny that GOP incumbents have.
Democratic challengers have lived a charmed life up to this point, Hunt said. As the ad wars begin to heat up and the press begins to scrutinize these Democrats, their records and scandals will be laid bare for voters to see and evaluate whether or not they are capable of handling the immense challenges facing the Senate.
But Lauren Passalacqua, a spokeswoman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said Republicans will pay a price for their efforts to repeal or overturn Affordable Care Act protections, as health care remains a top issue for voters.
"Democrats are focused on the issues that matter to voters, including affordable health care coverage, and are reporting record-breaking grassroots support, which is how weve expanded the map and continue to move these races in our direction," she said.
Republicans, meanwhile, are hyping the Michigan race after GOP businessman and Iraq war veteran John James out-raised Democratic Sen. Gary Peters. Polls roundly show Peters leading.
Overall, the Cook Political Report's Taylor said, Democratic challengers are by far out-raising the Republicans early on.
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Democrats move within striking range of taking the Senate, forecasts say - NBC News
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With Steve King Gone, Does the Democrat Have a Shot in His Iowa District? – The New York Times
Posted: at 5:41 pm
Not at all. We laid the groundwork in 2018 and he wouldnt have had a competitive primary if not for what we were able to do. I think what America needs is for people like Steve King to have their voices quieted, and I think this is a huge step forward for America. What were trying to do here in the Fourth District is the same thing we did last time. Its not talking about who were against or what were against, but what were for.
But doesnt this mean you have a tougher campaign ahead?
The people who are saying this race is an uphill battle as of now are the same people who told me that last time. Were going to work our tails off, get out there with our campaign R.V., which we named Sioux City Sue. Were going to go out and earn your vote. I spent more nights in Walmart parking lots the last few months of the campaign last cycle than I did in my own bed.
Were the second biggest agriculture-producing district in America. Were 39 counties, very rural, and in order to compete and connect with folks where theyre at, youve got to get out there. This past fall we went to 38 of 39 counties and towns of under 1,000 people and we called it the Dont Forget About Us tour. Some of these communities are fighting to keep their grocery stores. Some have to drive 30 minutes to buy fresh produce. When farmers arent making a dime, something isnt adding up.
How do you change your strategy?
It literally doesnt change. We go out there and campaign everywhere and, like I said, it doesnt matter who you are, were going to invite you to the table. If you came on the road with us last time, we barely mentioned Steve King.
Theres not enough people fighting for something who are running for office. The people of the Fourth District are sick of divisive politics. Its not enough just not being Steve King. We need to have something for this district and the ability to bring people together. And thats what we plan to do.
Do you intend to make it a campaign issue that Mr. Feenstra did not attack Mr. Kings racism?
He talks about how much of a man he is of faith. And theres a Proverbs message that really is near and dear to my heart. Its Speak up for those who cannot speak up for themselves, ensure justice for those being crushed. To me, the absence of all five of the Republicans even addressing the George Floyd death or any of these protests or anything like that, I feel thats a huge issue. I think thats the type of people we dont need to go to Congress.
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With Steve King Gone, Does the Democrat Have a Shot in His Iowa District? - The New York Times
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NRCC turns up heat on vulnerable Democrats over Omar’s call to abolish police | TheHill – The Hill
Posted: at 5:41 pm
Republican operatives are attempting to link vulnerable Democrats to progressive members calls to disband police departments and reduce their budgets as they look to flip key swing districts in November.
Top progressive lawmakers and outside groups have called for substantial changes to the structure of U.S. law enforcement after thedeath of George Floyd, an unarmed black man in Minneapolis who died during an arrest after a police officer knelt on his neck.
Rep. Ilhan OmarIlhan OmarNRCC turns up heat on vulnerable Democrats over Omar's call to abolish police Top progressive lawmaker unveils bill requiring national police training standards Pelosi demands Trump clarify deployment of unidentified law enforcement in DC MORE (D-Minn.) tweeted Friday: The Minneapolis Police Department has proven themselves beyond reform. Its time to disband them and reimagine public safety in Minneapolis."
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-CortezNRCC turns up heat on vulnerable Democrats over Omar's call to abolish police Overnight Energy: US Park Police say 'tear gas' statements were 'mistake' | Trump to reopen area off New England coast for fishing | Vulnerable Republicans embrace green issues Engel primary challenger hits million in donations MORE (D-N.Y.) also took to social media to blast New Yorks police budget, tweeting: If police budgets bought peace, the $6 billion NYPD budget wouldve bought the most sophisticated de-escalatory operation in the world. Clearly, it didnt.
The Minneapolis Police Department has proven themselves beyond reform.
Its time to disband them and reimagine public safety in Minneapolis.
Thank you to @MplsWard3 for your leadership on this! https://t.co/AQfHM5M6eR
Last night the NYPD Sergeants union *publicly threatened the mayors daughter* while they held her.
Indefensible.
If police budgets bought peace, the $6 *billion* NYPD budget wouldve bought the most sophisticated de-escalatory operation in the world.
Clearly, it didnt. https://t.co/wjl8MG059w
Republicans have slammed the proposal, arguing that while bad actors like those responsible for Floyds death should be held accountable, they believe that defunding and disbanding the police goes too far. A number of Democrats, including Congressional Black Caucus Chairwoman Karen BassKaren Ruth BassNRCC turns up heat on vulnerable Democrats over Omar's call to abolish police House Judiciary Committee to hold hearing on police brutality next week Minority caucuses call for quick action on police reform MORE (D-Calif.), also said they dont agree with calls to defund law enforcement.
"No, I don't believe that we should defund police departments," she said at apress conference on Wednesday.
While the Democratic party is not in agreement over the issue, the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), the House GOP's campaign arm, and outside groups like the Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF) are looking to seize on progressives comments by taking aim at those representing purple districts, many of which flipped during the midterm election cycle.
Of all of the things these insane Democrats have tried to abolish, this may be the most dangerously insane one yet, NRCC spokesman Chris Pack said in a statement. Whats next, the fire department?
While the Democratic lawmakers and candidates being targeted have not publicly weighed in on the topic, the NRCC has taken to social media and sent out numerous email blasts targeting members.
[Rep.] Tom MalinowskiThomas (Tom) MalinowskiNRCC turns up heat on vulnerable Democrats over Omar's call to abolish police Gun control group rolls out House endorsements Human Rights Campaign rolls out congressional endorsements on Equality Act anniversary MORE (D-N.J.) is honored to have the support of Indivisible, an extreme liberal group that wants to defund the police. Malinowski has even gone so far to say the group is 'essential to a healthy democracy',"it sent in a mass email on Thursday.
And CLF, the main House Republican super PAC, has employed similar tactics, highlighting donations made by Omar to vulnerable members campaigns.
WillRep. Underwood stay silent about her top donor [Omar]'s support of defunding the police? WillUnderwood push to defundChicago Police as well? the group tweeted, referring to Rep. Lauren UnderwoodLauren UnderwoodNRCC turns up heat on vulnerable Democrats over Omar's call to abolish police Julin Castro launches PAC to support progressive candidates Gun control group rolls out House endorsements MORE (D-Ill.), whom Omar has supported.
Will @RepUnderwood stay silent about her top donor @IlhanMN's support of defunding the police? Will @LaurenUnderwood push to defund @Chicago_Police as well? https://t.co/ljEng9EBb7 #ILpolitics #IL14 https://t.co/8trZRfwd2y
Attempting to connect moderates with progressive policies has been a leading component in the GOPs strategy in its efforts to take back control of the lower chamber.
While at times the NRCCs aggressive messaging tactics have come under fire, the group has asserted it needs to take a bold approach if theGOP is going to flip back the House.
Democratic lawmakers have vowed to take bold legislative action to prevent police brutality, but it is unclear whether any of the bills will include language to change the funding mechanisms for police departments.
Well, I did hear of Los Angeles, that's about almost onetenth of the budget, it's about $1.3ish billion, so that would be onetenth of that,"Speaker Nancy PelosiNancy PelosiNRCC turns up heat on vulnerable Democrats over Omar's call to abolish police Shocking job numbers raise hopes for quicker recovery Engel primary challenger hits million in donations MORE (D-Calif.) said at a press conference on Thursday when asked about thecity'splan to divert $150 million fromLAPD to various other programs. "Again, I'd refer to the Congressional Black Caucus as to how they want to prioritize. Its a question of curating some of these... overlap, prioritizing and then deciding in how many different bills will they appear."
Some of them may have some bipartisan support right away and others may need some more work in that regard," she added. "So we shall see.
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Royce West and MJ Hegar debate ahead of U.S. Senate Democratic runoff – The Texas Tribune
Posted: at 5:41 pm
As the pandemic continues to prevent large in-person gatherings, the candidates in Texas' top Democratic primary runoff will meet Saturday for a virtual debate at the Texas Democratic Convention. The threat of the new coronavirus has meant MJ Hegar and Royce West have been campaigning almost exclusively online since the March primary.
West, a state senator from Dallas, has emphasized his endorsements. He has touted the support of most of his Democratic colleagues in the Legislature. Hegar, a former Air Force helicopter pilot, has received the backing of the powerful Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
Hegar finished first in the 12-way Democratic Senate primary on March 3. She remains the top Democratic fundraiser, ending the latest fundraising period which went through March 31 with $1.1 million cash on hand to West's $121,000.
Watch the debate live starting at 6 p.m. Central Time.
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Royce West and MJ Hegar debate ahead of U.S. Senate Democratic runoff - The Texas Tribune
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