Daily Archives: June 6, 2020

As a general proposition, when the nation is in a state of crisis, things do not go well for the Presidents party. When a war becomes a quagmire (Korea in 52, Vietnam in 68), when the economy craters (1980, 2008), voters look for a different leader. Far from a retreat to safety or a rally round the flag sentiment, there is an instinct to show the people in charge the way to the exit. (George W. Bushs re-election in 2004 may be a counterexample, but it took place in the broad wake of anxiety over the attacks of September 11three years before the electionand before the baleful consequences of the Iraq War were fully clear.)

This trend also has clear consequences for the Senate. When things are going reasonably well, and voters re-elect a President, senators from the other party often feel no impact at all. In 1972, Richard Nixon was returned to office in a historic landslide, winning 49 states and 60 per cent of the popular vote. But there wasnt a corresponding Republican sweep of Congress; in fact, Democrats picked up two Senate seats. In 1988, in a country buoyed by the flush economy of the Reagan years, George H.W. Bush won with an electoral landslide of 442 votesbut again, Democrats gained a Senate seat. In 1996, Bill Clinton glided to an easy re-election, but it was Republicans who picked up two Senate seats.

Those were essentially feel-good elections, where the nation was more or less comfortable with things as they were, and that comfort extended to whichever party held a Congressional majority. In contrast, look at what happened to the Senate the last two times voters were buffeted by economic woes. In 1980, when Ronald Reagan beat Jimmy Carter by 10 points, Democrats lost a remarkable 12 Senate seatsand with them, control of the chamber. In 2008, when Barack Obama was elected in the midst of a financial meltdown, Republicans lost eight senate seats, greatly strengthening the Democratic majority. (In the 2012 Obama re-election, only two Senate seats changed, and in the 1984 Reagan re-election 49 state landslide, Democrats picked up two.)

This year, the Senate Republicans hold a majority, again making them vulnerable to any vote to toss out the status quo. But dont voters make different choices when they vote for a President and then a Senator? Once upon a time, yes.

The potentially awful news for Republican Senate candidates is another historical trend: the increasing link between votes cast for a Presidential contender and votes cast for senators, which makes it harder to create distance from an unpopular incumbent.

It wasnt that long ago that ticket-splitting was commonplace. In 1992, 10 Senate candidates were elected from states that had given their electoral votes to the other party. But as party identification became more and more the key indicator of how votes were cast, this impulse all but disappeared. In 2016, every victorious Senate candidate came from a state whose presidential votes had gone to the same party. The days when Republican Al DAmato could retain his New York Senate seat in the wake of a million-vote plurality for Bill Clinton in 1992 seem a distant memory.

Now turn to the Senate map, and its clear how these factors combine to produce a migraine for any strategist looking to hold the Senate for the Republicans. Not that long ago, Republicans were a good bet to hold the Senate even though they held 23 of the 35 contested seats. Only twoCory Gardner of Colorado and Susan Collins of Mainewere in states that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016. Even with Arizona and North Carolina as potential Presidential battlegrounds, that left at most four vulnerable Republicans. And with Alabama Democrat Doug Jones a very likely loser, there was little breathing room for Democrats to pick up the three net seats theyd need to capture the Senate, assuming Biden wins in November.

Nowat least measured by pollsa passel of states now seem within Bidens reach, many of them with incumbent Republican senators up for re-election. Hes even in Georgia, where both incumbent Republican senators will be on the ballot; hes even in Iowa, where Joni Ernst is up for re-election. And if Biden is going to make a real fight in Georgia and Iowa, that means a get-out-the-vote effort that will bring a lot of Democrats to the polls there.

Nor is it necessary for Biden to actually win a state to provide aid to a Senate candidate: In Montana, Democratic Governor Steve Bullock won re-election in 2016 while Trump was winning the state by 20 points. The most recent Presidential poll shows Trump leading in Montana by only five points; a margin that would give Bullock, now the Democrats Senate candidate, a real shot at unseating Steve Daines and flipping that seat to the Dems. A close race in North Carolinawhich Trump carried by 3 1/2 points four years ago, and where he trails by four in the most recent surveyis a clear and present danger to Senator Tom Tillis. (Most recent surveys show Trump falling further behind Biden in the wake of his disastrous leadership in the George Floyd casealthough if job numbers continue this weeks apparent turnaround, Trumps fortunes could improve.)

Now put yourself in the position of one of these endangered incumbents, especially in states where Trump is particularly unpopular, like Colorado or Maine. If youre tempted to create some distance from President Trump, to assert your independence, youre facing one pesky obstacle: The Republican Party is effectively now a wholly owned subsidiary of Trumpworld, and independence from the President is a trait that all but guarantees instant and massive pushback from your own party.

You have only to gaze around the Senate chamber, where ex-Senator Dean Heller, ex-Senator Jeff Flake, and ex-Senator Bob Corker sat, to see what happened to colleagues who did not tug the forelock with sufficient enthusiasm. If youre Gardner, or Collins, the temptation to confront the Presidents behavior has to be weighed against the likely outrage from the party apparatus whose help you need in an election, to say nothing of the populist media that animates your rank-and-file voters.

This election, of course, is taking place with even fewer known knowns than usual. Before the pandemic, before the killing of George Floyd, wed gone from Biden is toast to can Sanders be stopped? to contested convention! to Bidens the nominee in roughly 10 days. Since Trump has broken pretty much every rule about Presidential politics so far, he may well be able to defy history and turn the current crises to his advantage. (Its also possible that if Trump drops further in the polls, GOP incumbents may conclude that their chances for survival are better if they leave the burning ship of stateand discover some safety in numbers.)

But if you are playing the percentages, the odds say that if the President cannot persuade a rattled, fretful electorate to say with him, he will take the Republican Senate down with him.

See the article here:

Is the Crisis Putting the Republican Senate in Jeopardy? - POLITICO

WASHINGTON Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins the ultimate authority on whether a mass gathering can be held during COVID-19 ruled out bringing the Republican National Convention to Dallas, saying Saturday that the event is too big to be safe.

He cited the current code red rating from the countys Public Health Committee. At that risk level, people should stay home and avoid crowds.

President Donald Trump is insisting on a traditional convention that includes 19,000 GOP delegates and officials, plus thousands of news media, donors, security and protesters.

They strongly recommend against that, Jenkins said of the countys epidemiology and infectious disease experts. I made my peace early on to follow the lead of doctors and so I would respect that. And that would be my position on that.

North Carolinas governor, Democrat Roy Cooper, has refused to promise that Republicans can gather as planned in Charlotte, which was picked two years ago.

For the past week, the Republican National Committee has scrambled to find a fallback, naming a half-dozen cities as contenders, including Dallas; Orlando and Jacksonville, Fla.; Phoenix; and Nashville, Tenn.

RNC chairwoman Ronna McDaniel told the Charlotte host committee on Thursday that the party is turning its focus to cities that have actively courted the massive event.

In fact, Dallas has taken no steps to lure the convention to the city, and local officials express no enthusiasm.

Mayor Eric Johnson said Friday that hes heard nothing from the GOP and isnt mounting a bid. He noted that the county has the ultimate say on approving such an event during a pandemic. The convention and visitors bureau, VisitDallas, is also unaware of any effort to bring the convention to the area, and it coordinated the citys bid for the 2016 GOP convention six years ago.

Jenkins, speaking with journalists Saturday via video as part of the Texas Democratic Partys virtual convention, confirmed that he hasnt discussed the convention with anyone, either, let alone issued an invitation.

I havent had any conversations with anyone planning the convention, he said in response to a question from The Dallas Morning News. What I hope they will do is look at the guidelines. Anyone can go to DallasCountyCovid.org, and you can look at what our local doctors are saying. What theyre saying is that were now at a red color.

The four-day convention is scheduled to start Aug. 24.

Red, the highest level of public health danger under Dallas Countys system, calls for a stay home, stay safe response.

Among the recommendations: Eliminate non-essential travel and group settings. For essential travel, practice strict physical distancing, wear facial coverings. Avoid all group settings or crowded areas at hotels or other facilities. Do not eat in shared dining areas. Avoid travel if over 65 or in a high-risk group.

A convention that big is unwise, Jenkins said, even if we get to an orange or yellow color, which, frankly, given the spike and deaths and things were seeing, is unlikely to happen by the time of the convention, unfortunately.

Excerpt from:

Dallas County judge rules out Republican convention, citing COVID-19 risk of mass event Trump demands - The Dallas Morning News

By MICHAEL DAVIDOW, Radio Free New Hampshire

Many years ago, journalist Teddy White visited New York City and asked his cabdriver for whom he was voting. I dont even remember the election in question. It doesnt matter. Because White got both a lecture in history and a lesson in politics for a reply.

His cabdriver told him that he always voted for the other guy, because no matter which party was in power, they always forgot what was important after they had been in office for a while. There was only one exception, his cabdriver told him.

LaGuardia. I would vote for LaGuardia every time. White asked him why. Because LaGuardia was different, his cabdriver said, turning around to make his point. He really cared.

Fiorella LaGuardia was a Republican, of course. And it has taken the Republican party this long to produce another exception to the rule, but they finally have: Donald Trump, a man who is also different.But this time, the magic of politics has been reversed. No matter what your politics might be, all Americans must vote against him this November.

All politics is local, and for that reason, neither of Americas great political parties have ever had a monopoly on rightness or decency. That is why Whites cabdriver had it right, in many ways. Each party needs the correction of the other.

It is important to remember that the Democrats, for instance, represented the racist American south for a very long time after the Civil War. If you were a progressive who believed in the sanctity of human life in Atlanta, Montgomery, or Tallahassee in the 1920s, odds were that you were also a Republican.

The Democrats were also the party of Tammany Hall and the other big city machines, famous for their corruption and strong-arm tactics; that was how LaGuardia came into his natural affiliation. Half-Jewish and half-Italian, he grew up being kicked by Irish boots; with an urge to root out corruption, to stick up for those who had no power, and to prize kindness and opportunity.

The Republican party as it developed in New York City, in fact, was a wonderful thing in many ways. It was a minority party; the numbers were always against it. It had a gallantry about it, for that fact. Its chief journalistic outlet, the New York Herald Tribune, was famous for its willingness to publish works of real art and real thought (Jean Seberg advertized that rag in 1960, in the classic French film,Breathless; can you imagine some snobby French director today doing that for Fox News?).

Its politicians had verve and intelligence:Rockefeller, Javits, Lindsay, and yes, Dick Nixon. Though Nixon was a Californian, his intellect was leavened by the time he spent as a corporate lawyer in Manhattan, and his entire political career represented a compromise between the Republican partys eastern and western wings.

But you can also see the weaknesses in the Republican partys structure, the flaws that would have caused Whites cabbie to vote against it on every other occasion.Just as the Democrats were marked by their racism, the Republicans suffered for their natural animosity towards the immigrant and the factory worker.

Those big city machines were not just corrupt; they were also the method by which new Americans came into their political maturity. In city after city, the Republicans lined up not only against corruption, but also against cultural change. There was a stodginess about the Republican party in many places, with which one might sympathize (who is ever comfortable with change?), but not always condone. It too often transmuted itself into a conservatism based not on principle, but on reaction; into a base thing that implicated hatred of the other. Likewise, its born tendency to defend the business owners interests over those of the factory worker too often stopped being in the service of American capitalism and veered instead into the servicing of American wealth.

Again, historically speaking, these considerations have always been balanced against the flaws of the Democrats, who have too often pandered to their own constituencies.Whites cabbie voted for and against both of these parties. He instinctively sought the balance that our country needs.

LaGuardia was different, though: because LaGuardia really cared. LaGuardia, who spoke Yiddish better than many Jews, even though most people considered him Italian. LaGuardia, who read the Sunday comics to children over the radio in case their parents didnt have the newspapers. LaGuardia, who could never really play outside of New York City, because the rest of the country found him short, and fat, and funny-looking.

Trump is different, too.Because he really does not care.I am out of space today, so I will continue this article soon.

Michael Davidow is a lawyer in Nashua. He is the author ofGate City,Split Thirty, andThe Rocketdyne Commission, three novels about politics and advertising which, taken together, formThe Henry Bell Project. His most recent one isThe Book of Order. They are available on Amazon.

Views expressed in columns and opinion pieces belong to the author and do not reflect those of InDepthNH.org.

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A Republican Who Read Comics on the Radio for Poor Children - indepthnh.org

While the past few days have felt unprecedented in almost all respects, theyve been familiar in at least one way: President Trump has once again done something widely viewed as outrageous. In this case, his administration had law enforcement officials clear a path for Trump to visit a nearby church, leading to protesters being tear gassed outside the White House.

And, as has often been the case when Trump draws criticism, many GOP senators have evaded questions about the violence and Trumps role in it. I dont have any reaction to it. I havent seen footage. I didnt follow, Im sorry. And even, He has moments. But I mean, as you know, it lasts generally as long as the next tweet.

Yet maybe this time is a little different. Even before the protesters were driven away from the White House, wed begun to hear a number of strong condemnations of both Trump and how he was handling the protests across the country some from familiar corners and others from more surprising sources, like military leaders.

On the usual suspects list theres Sens. Mitt Romney, Susan Collins, Ben Sasse and Lisa Murkowski (although Murkowski avoided saying much about the protests specifically, she did say she is struggling with whether to vote for Trump in 2020). But some current and former members of the presidents inner circle have also criticized him. Most notably, former Secretary of Defense James Mattis, who resigned in protest in December 2018, issued a scathing rebuke of Trumps actions on Wednesday night, writing, We must reject and hold accountable those in office who would make a mockery of our Constitution. (He also said, The protests are defined by tens of thousands of people of conscience who are insisting that we live up to our values our values as people and our values as a nation.) Current Secretary of Defense Mark Esper has also objected to using active-duty troops to respond to mostly peaceful protests.

Former President George W. Bush also weighed in on the side of the protesters, writing, The only way to see ourselves in a true light is to listen to the voices of so many who are hurting and grieving. Those who set out to silence those voices do not understand the meaning of America. Bush didnt name Trump directly, but its still a telling rebuke from a former president of the same political party.

This is one of those rare moments of uncertainty when its possible that the wall of Republican support sheltering Trump finally crumbles. It is still unlikely to happen, but as Ive written before, if it does happen, it will happen suddenly.

Political science helps us understand why this is the case. In my previous article, I cited political scientist Timur Kurans classic work, Private Truth, Public Lies: The Social Consequences of Preference Falsification, to help explain why:

[Kuran] argues that political regimes can persist despite being unpopular, which is why a government overthrow, when it does come, can often seem so sudden.

Consider the Arab Spring, which began with one Tunisian vendor, who protested being mistreated by government officials by setting himself on fire. His death triggered a series of events, and a month later, the long-unpopular authoritarian Tunisian president fled the country after more than 23 years in power. A few weeks later, protesters in Egypt ousted their own long-serving authoritarian leader. What looked like ironclad power collapsed in a matter of weeks. Why?

Kuran argues in his book that protests need a critical mass of supporters in order to force change. The logic is that theres safety in numbers, so if multiple citizens rise up in protest of a regime, it signals that its OK to protest which can cause decades-old regimes to collapse all at once.

Of course, so far the criticism against Trump has mostly come from retired generals or members of Congress who already had a history of publicly chastising the president. But as conflict escalates over the protests, more and more elected Republicans may start to speak up.

After all, Trumps continued unpopularity threatens to weigh down Republicans chances of holding on to the Senate or taking back the House, and head-to-head polling shows Biden holds a steady lead against Trump in the general election. Is it possible, then, that Republican leaders might privately be wondering if theyd be better off with somebody else on the ticket in November? With unemployment at historic levels, protests spreading and the coronavirus pandemic lingering, Trump faces an increasingly difficult path to reelection.

Most likely, Senate and House Republicans will eventually find a way to defend Trumps actions, as they have done before (remember the impeachment trial?). Trump may not be perfect, they may say, but the Democrats are much worse. This is the prevailing rationalization of our zero-sum politics.

But in moments like this, when nobody knows exactly what to say or do, a few unlikely public critiques of Trump could have a surprising cascade effect. And if the president continues to transgress widely-shared democratic values putting congressional Republicans in an increasingly difficult electoral position we may yet see a consequential crack in the Republican Party.

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If Republicans Are Ever Going To Turn On Trump, This Might Be The Moment - FiveThirtyEight

ANDOVER The Democratic Town Committee is denouncing Republicans endorsement to reconfirm former town employee Jay Linddy as justice of the peace.

The Republican caucus nominated Linddy during a virtual meeting last month.

Linddy, a former transfer station employee and animal control officer, was fired as a town employee in 2017 for sexually harassing female workers and members of the public. Linddy also held elected positions on the Board of Selectmen and Board of Education.

If you dont like the idea of him being a justice of the peace, dont ask him to proceed over anything that requires a justice of the peace, Republican Town Chairwoman Carol Barton said Friday in defense of the endorsement. We dont feel that the Democrats should be commenting on who we put in for justices of the peace.

Each party is allowed to elect five justices of the peace every four years. This year, one person stepped down and the other four, including Linddy, asked to be reconfirmed, Barton said.

Linddy had been a justice of the peace in town for several years, however he was last elected before the scandal broke.

In a Facebook post, the Democratic Town Committee said it was at a loss to understand Republicans.

I know many of these people and I know they are decent people, but I cannot answer the question why decent people support indecent men, the partys statement reads.

On Thursday, the Republican Town Committee released a statement on its Facebook page, stating there were many slots open and Republicans did not have an excess of candidates so he was added.

We felt it is a personal decision if people wanted to use his services or not, it reads.

The statement also highlighted that Linddy would not be in a position in which he would make any town policy decisions or act on behalf of the town.

The statement goes on to say that anyone who feels the endorsement is inappropriate should consider that it has been more than three years since the incidents and accusations occurred.

It was reported in the papers. He was publicly shamed, and he was dismissed from his town duties. He paid dearly for his actions and its time to heal, move on, and give someone an opportunity to be part of the community again if they so choose, it reads.

The committee goes on to say that it was in poor taste that the Democrats have made an issue of the nomination when the party has always advanced a policy of rehabilitation, second chances, and early release for offenders.

I guess their Second Chance Policy does not apply here and the Andover Democrats feel in the court of public opinion that Jay should pay for what he did for the rest of his life, the statement says.

Read more:

Andover Republican Jay Linddy backed for justice of the peace - Journal Inquirer

APPLETON - A three-way Republican primary election will be held Aug. 11 to narrow the number of candidates in the 55th Assembly District.

The candidates areLauri Asbury, Rachael Cabral-Guevara andJay Schroeder, according to nomination papers filed with the Wisconsin Elections Commission.

The winner of the primary will face DemocratDaniel Schierl in the Nov. 3 general election.

The55th Assembly Districtincludes Neenah, Clayton, Greenville, Grand Chute and Fox Crossing.Incumbent Mike Rohrkaste didn't seek re-election.

Monday was the deadline for candidates to file their nomination papers for congressional, legislative, district attorney and partisan county races.

The candidates who filed nomination papers are listed below. An * indicates a race will require an Aug. 11 primary; (i) denotes incumbent.

Democrat*:Michael G. Beardsley,Oshkosh; Jessica J. King, Oshkosh; Matthew L. Boor,Cleveland

Republican: Glenn Grothman (i), Glenbeulah

Democrat: Amanda Stuck, Appleton

Republican: Mike Gallagher (i), Allouez

RELATED:Wisconsin Rep. Amanda Stuck takes on bid for Congress

RELATED:Appleton debates asking voters to set 12-year term limits for mayor, council

Republican: Robert L. Cowles (i),Green Bay

Democrat: Joni D. Anderson,Adams

Republican*:Joan A. Ballweg,Markesan; Ken Van DykeSr., Scandinavia

Incumbent Luther Olsen didn't seek re-election.

Democrat:Mark A. Kiley,Two Rivers

Republican:Shae Sortwell (i), Two Rivers

Democrat:Emily Voight,Appleton

Republican:Ron Tusler (i),Menasha

Republican:Jim Steineke (i),Kaukauna

Democrat*:Richard Sarnwick,Shawano;Simon Moesch,Shawano

Republican:Gary Tauchen (i),Bonduel

Democrat:Deb Silvers,New London

Republican:Kevin Petersen (i), Waupaca

Democrat:Daniel Schierl,Neenah

Republican*:Lauri Asbury,Neenah; Rachael Cabral-Guevara,Appleton;Jay Schroeder,Neenah

Democrat:Diana Lawrence,Appleton

Republican:Dave Murphy (i),Greenville

RELATED:Greenville asks voters for $6.5 million to developsports and splash park

Democrat:Lee Snodgrass,Appleton

Republican:Eric J. Beach,Appleton

Incumbent Amanda Stuck didn't seek re-election.

Republican:Nathan F. Haberman (i), Appleton

Republican:Mindy Tempelis (i),Appleton

Republican:Veronica Isherwood (i), Waupaca

Republican:Christian A. Gossett (i), Oshkosh

Republican: Beth A. Hauser (i), Menasha

Republican: Michael V. Schlaak (i), Appleton

Republican: Tami J. Alten (i), Chilton

Republican:Jeff King,Appleton

Incumbent Lori O'Bright didn't seek re-election.

Republican:Trenten JWoelfel (i),Combined Locks

Republican:Sarah R. Van Camp (i), Appleton

Republican:Jill Loken Lodewegen (i), Iola

Republican: Mark H. Sether (i), Iola

Republican: Michael Mazemke (i), Iola

Republican: Susan T. Ertmer (i), Oshkosh

Republican: Mary E. Krueger (i), Oshkosh

Independent: Seth Reid, Oshkosh

Republican*: Natalie Strohmeyer (i), Neenah; Paul Esslinger, Oshkosh

Contact Duke Behnke at 920-993-7176 or dbehnke@gannett.com.Follow him on Twitter at@DukeBehnke.

Read or Share this story: https://www.postcrescent.com/story/news/local/2020/06/01/wisconsin-elections-three-republicans-55th-assembly-primary/5307377002/

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2020 election: Three Republicans face off in primary for 55th Assembly District - Post-Crescent