Monthly Archives: April 2020

How Does TAS Offshore Berhads (KLSE:TAS) P/E Compare To Its Industry, After Its Big Share Price Gain? – Simply Wall St

Posted: April 21, 2020 at 3:43 am

TAS Offshore Berhad (KLSE:TAS) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 41% in the last month alone, although it is still down 38% over the last quarter. But shareholders may not all be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down 16% in the last year.

Assuming no other changes, a sharply higher share price makes a stock less attractive to potential buyers. In the long term, share prices tend to follow earnings per share, but in the short term prices bounce around in response to short term factors (which are not always obvious). The implication here is that deep value investors might steer clear when expectations of a company are too high. Perhaps the simplest way to get a read on investors expectations of a business is to look at its Price to Earnings Ratio (PE Ratio). A high P/E implies that investors have high expectations of what a company can achieve compared to a company with a low P/E ratio.

View our latest analysis for TAS Offshore Berhad

TAS Offshore Berhads P/E of 32.91 indicates some degree of optimism towards the stock. You can see in the image below that the average P/E (11.7) for companies in the machinery industry is lower than TAS Offshore Berhads P/E.

Its relatively high P/E ratio indicates that TAS Offshore Berhad shareholders think it will perform better than other companies in its industry classification. The market is optimistic about the future, but that doesnt guarantee future growth. So investors should always consider the P/E ratio alongside other factors, such as whether company directors have been buying shares.

Probably the most important factor in determining what P/E a company trades on is the earnings growth. Thats because companies that grow earnings per share quickly will rapidly increase the E in the equation. Therefore, even if you pay a high multiple of earnings now, that multiple will become lower in the future. A lower P/E should indicate the stock is cheap relative to others and that may attract buyers.

TAS Offshore Berhad shrunk earnings per share by 46% over the last year. And over the longer term (5 years) earnings per share have decreased 44% annually. This growth rate might warrant a below average P/E ratio.

The Price in P/E reflects the market capitalization of the company. Thus, the metric does not reflect cash or debt held by the company. Hypothetically, a company could reduce its future P/E ratio by spending its cash (or taking on debt) to achieve higher earnings.

Such spending might be good or bad, overall, but the key point here is that you need to look at debt to understand the P/E ratio in context.

TAS Offshore Berhads net debt is 12% of its market cap. It would probably deserve a higher P/E ratio if it was net cash, since it would have more options for growth.

TAS Offshore Berhads P/E is 32.9 which is above average (12.4) in its market. With modest debt but no EPS growth in the last year, its fair to say the P/E implies some optimism about future earnings, from the market. What we know for sure is that investors have become much more excited about TAS Offshore Berhad recently, since they have pushed its P/E ratio from 23.3 to 32.9 over the last month. If you like to buy stocks that have recently impressed the market, then this one might be a candidate; but if you prefer to invest when there is blood in the streets, then you may feel the opportunity has passed.

Investors should be looking to buy stocks that the market is wrong about. People often underestimate remarkable growth so investors can make money when fast growth is not fully appreciated. We dont have analyst forecasts, but shareholders might want to examine this detailed historical graph of earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with modest (or no) debt, trading on a P/E below 20.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.

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How Does TAS Offshore Berhads (KLSE:TAS) P/E Compare To Its Industry, After Its Big Share Price Gain? - Simply Wall St

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The Year 2020 Will be a Large Stress Test for the Offshore Industry – Offshore Engineer

Posted: at 3:43 am

As the offshore market entered 2020, many within the industry had an optimistic outlook for the future and the consensus was the worst is behind us.

However, nobody could have foreseen the events that would unfold in Q1 2020 and the impact that would be felt throughout every corner of the global economy.

The coronavirus or Covid-19 swept through the world from the epicenter of Wuhan, first impacting surrounding Asian and Middle Eastern countries, quickly followed by Europe and the US.

The global economy was sent into a tailspin and as a result, the demand for oil plummeted. To add another twist, Saudi Arabia and Russia entered an aggressive oil price war and the price of the commodity fell sharply. In January 2020 Brent Crude was $63/bl and by 1st April it was c. $25/bl.

This article will discuss the regional impact of both COVID-19 and oil price decrease on key operating regions.AsiaAsia hasnt had an easy ride in the last 5 years, especially Singapore. The last thing Singaporean offshore players wanted or needed was a dramatic fall in oil prices.

The region was hit quickly by the oil price war and large companies such as Keppel, Sembcorp, Nam Chong and Mermaid, Marco Polo all saw their share price drop dramatically in a matter of days. Not good for a region still hurting from its past mistakes.

As discussed in last months article several early S.E. Asian adopters turned their attention to the growing windfarm industry in the region. This employment will be a welcomed relief now oil and gas contracts are under pressure. However, the vessels that have had contracts canceled, or are struggling to find new employment must go somewhere and renewables work will be on their radar.

Europe

European owners, especially the Norwegians, are feeling the effects of the current market. Even before the events unfolded over the last 2 months, they were under huge amounts of pressure and many in the industry questioned, one, how they had survived this long and two, not if, but when they would have to seek restructuring plans.

The recent oil price crash has made the decision for them and most have been forced to find a solution. For example, Solstad Offshore the largest Norwegian offshore player was earlier this month taken over by Banks and bondholders as a $946m debt deal was agreed. Solstad will also be trimming its fleet to 90 vessels by disposing of 37 ships either in the second hand or demolition market. Other players in the region also forced into action include Havilla, DOF, Siem Offshore, Vroon etc. Solstads total fleet value 16/04/2020 is USD 1.304B (excluding the companies' two pipelay vessels).

US

The US oil and gas majors have reacted quickly and aggressively to the economic situation, ExxonMobil, Chevron, HESS, ConocoPhillips, Philips 66 have all cut 2020 CAPEX to adjust to this new price environment. These cuts will have huge implications for vessel owners in the region, the US Gulf already suffers from an oversupply of tonnage and investment cuts will certainly tip the supply and demand scales further out of favor.

Hornbeck Offshore this month announced they are entering chapter 11 restructuring. Unlike many other publicly US-listed OSV owners Hornbeck had not gone down the Chapter 11 route and instead sought other alternatives with their lenders. However, continued challenging market conditions over the last year combined with Covid-19 and the drop in oil price proved too potent a combination.

Conclusion

The current global economic situation is showing no signs of improving and how far into the future the repercussions will be felt is still very much unknown. What we do know is that the offshore industry is retracting, and 2020 is going to be a very large stress test for the industry and its players. Just as we thought we had seen the last of the mergers, bankruptcies, forced sales, delistings and chapter 11s it looks as though more pain is on the horizon.

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80% of US consumers in favour of offshore wind says AWEA – Smart Energy

Posted: at 3:43 am

The American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) has announced the results of a new national poll which shows that over 80% of the country favour offshore wind energy. Every demographic group across the US support offshore wind, according to the survey.

The national survey was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies between 16-19 March 2020, with ardent supporters emerging from both major political parties, indicating that the issue transcends political lines.

Voters across the board appreciate the benefits wind energy delivers, with Republicans overwhelmingly viewing wind as a clean, renewable, affordable power source that also reduces carbon emissions (88%) and keeps utility costs stable, while providing critical power to Americas densely populated areas (80%).

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AWEA said that both Democrats and Republicans prefer wind to the increased use of coal, nuclear or natural gas. Voters currently believe both oil and natural gas and wind energy play an important role in todays economy (93% and 86%, respectively), with more than half of Republican voters saying the United States should put more emphasis on producing domestic energy from both wind and solar (58% and 66%) than other forms of energy.

A majority of voters think the wind energy industry will be more important to the countrys economy than oil and natural gas ten years from now (57% to 43%), and 85% of voters agree wind energy is a clean, renewable, and affordable power source of the future, including 80% of Republicans.

The offshore wind industry possesses a power potential of more than 2,000GW, nearly double the nations current electricity use. AWEA estimates that the industry will support 83,000 jobs by 2030 and that it will drive $25 billion dollars per year in new economic activity by 2030.

Support for offshore wind is favoured across the country, not just in coastal states. With 90% of those in the South and 89% of those in the Midwest viewing it the most favorably. There are also no generational divisions on the issue.

Additionally, those who identify as conservative, moderate or liberal all are in high percent ages for their overall approval rating of offshore wind.

Republicans strongly believe that offshore wind:

Support is strong for Independents as well; 70% say the US needs to put more emphasis on wind energy and 82% of Independents favor offshore wind energy specifically. Support for offshore jumps after voters learn more about the industry.

The strong bipartisan support for offshore wind among voters is very encouraging, said AWEA CEO Tom Kiernan. Consumers clearly see that offshore wind provides significant environmental benefits and will serve as a real economic game-changer in the coming years, helping the nation recover and adding family-supporting jobs where theyre needed most at the local level following the coronavirus pandemic.

This story first appeared on our sister site, Renewable Energy World.

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Bringing fishing and wind communities together to site US offshore wind projects – Windpower Engineering

Posted: at 3:43 am

By Henry Schneider, senior communications associate, Stove Boat Communications

In April 2019, the Embassy of the United Kingdom and the state of New York brought two veteran British fishermen across the Atlantic Ocean to speak about their experiences working with offshore wind developers. While offshore wind is relatively new to the United States, with just one wind farm and 30 MW of capacity, the industry has exploded in Europe, with over 100 wind farms and more than 22,000 MW of capacity.

The British fishermen described an early disagreement: an offshore wind developer had done its surveys and determined the placement of a transmission cable, even though this meant laying the cable over a hard rock cliff where it would be exposed to damage and interfere with longstanding fishing activity. The fishermen recognized that this placement would be bad for both industries, hurting the cables longevity and creating a potential snag for fishing activity. The two industries hit the drawing board and found an alternative plan: the fishermen knew of nearby soft bottom ocean habitat where the cable could be buried, reducing the developers risk and preserving fishing in the area.

Issues like these are ones where fishermens knowledge of the seas they have worked on their whole lives and previous generations worked on before them can be invaluable, both for maintaining their livelihoods as offshore wind farms are constructed in or around fishing grounds, and for helping developers make the best decisions for their wind businesses.

It was in this spirit that in 2018, the Responsible Offshore Development Alliance (RODA) was formed. Comprised of fishing industry members from every Atlantic coastal state from North Carolina to Maine, as well as Pacific coast members in California, Oregon and Washington, RODA works directly with developers, regulators, scientists and other experts to promote coexistence between the offshore wind industry and fishing communities. To minimize conflicts with commercial fishing, RODA is committed to applying scientific and evidenced approaches to the expanding U.S. offshore wind industry.

Although there is only one U.S. offshore wind farm currently in operation and located in state waters, 16 sites have been leased throughout New England and the Mid-Atlantic, with additional sites proposed in both the Atlantic and Pacific. Offshore wind development is also complicated by the sheer number of developers, fishery sectors and regulators in play. On the regulatory side alone, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), the U.S. Coast Guard, regional fishery management councils and state agencies all have some jurisdiction over offshore wind and fisheries interactions. With so many different groups involved, RODAs ability to speak with a unified voice on behalf of the fishing industry is critical to the process.

One of RODAs most important projects conceived during a meeting between RODA and rsted leadership in 2019 is its Joint Industry Task Force with wind developers, a first-of-its-kind initiative created to improve direct communications between the two industries. In addition to RODAs fishing members, the task force consists of wind developers rsted, Equinor, Vineyard Wind, Mayflower, Atlantic Shores Offshore Wind, Avangrid and EnBW, comprising almost every offshore wind leaseholder on the Atlantic coast. The driving concept behind the task force is to take the best lessons learned from all regions like the British cable example apply them early and often, and continually improve upon them to reduce risk for both industries.

The Joint Industry Task Force is bringing the offshore wind and fishing industries together to pool their knowledge in a way thats never been attempted before, said Peter Hughes, RODAs Chairman and Director of Sustainability at Atlantic Capes Fisheries. Its groundbreaking work.

The task force first convened in June 2019 to determine how the industries could best work together and finalize a charter, with principles including promoting coexistence, identifying areas of conflict and cooperating to identify solutions, and ensuring fishing representation in the offshore wind process. Last October, the task force co-convened a Joint Industry Educational Forum in Warwick, Rhode Island a two-day informational exchange in which fishermen, developers, state leaders and regulators presented on everything from U.S. fisheries law to the physical components of a wind project to fish stock assessment surveys. More recently, the task force prepared a joint letter to BOEM on draft navigation guidelines and created a survey for mariner input on what kinds of navigational aids would benefit them most, from lighting and markings on turbines to AIS (automatic identification systems) to sound signals.

From our experience in other regions around the world, we believed that creating a forum made up of a broad fishing geographic and gear type representation, alongside of offshore wind developers, only leads to better communication and outcomes for both industries, said John OKeeffe, Head of Marine Affairs for rsted. We must still maintain strong direct ties with other regional fishing organizations and state and federal agencies, but having a national body can be extremely helpful. We wont agree on everything, but solid outcomes and practical solutions can be achieved.

In many ways just as important as the concrete developments that have emerged from the task force is the collaborative space that has resulted for both industries to work together. Through the task force, wind developers have an on-going and regular means to inquire about commercial fishing ideas and concerns, and vice versa. Some task force members have even engaged RODA in site-specific, detailed layout meetings on their wind projects something that almost certainly wouldnt have happened before the task force brought the two industries into closer collaboration.

One thing the fishing industry has learned from the task force is that not all offshore wind developers relate to the U.S. commercial fishing industry the same way, said Annie Hawkins, RODAs Executive Director. And I think the dialogue of the task force has provided offshore wind developers with a much deeper appreciation of the significant differences of needs across our different fisheries.

There remain plenty of issues to be resolved as offshore wind moves forward in the United States. As relationships continue to grow and trust evolves, task force participants hope that early identification of potential conflicts and adaptive learning once projects begin operations will minimize conflict in the future. Structured communications can assist in identifying and de-risking potential issues long before they become entrenched sources of conflict.

For example, some fisheries are managed on a days at sea basis whereby fishermen are allotted a certain number of days to make their catch without fishing input, developers wouldnt have known that spending extra time transiting offshore wind areas can directly impact how much fishermen are able to catch.

Other fisheries use low-altitude spotter planes that radio down to fishing boats where to go to catch schools of fish. These planes wouldnt be able to fly through large wind energy areas. In others, such as tuna fisheries in several regions, fishermen who have traditionally pursued their catch by following birds are concerned about potential disturbances.

Through initiatives like the Joint Industry Task Force, RODA is able to bring the fishing industrys knowledge and concerns directly to wind developers early in the process. And because of the open channels of communication created by the task force, the industries have the ability to collaborate on solutions early to avoid confrontation later on. As offshore wind becomes a major player in the U.S. energy system, this is the type of win-win work that must occur to ensure the industry is successful and historic U.S. commercial fishing communities are able to continue their way of life.

Henry Schneider is the senior communications associate at Stove Boat Communications, where he advises organizations across the U.S. commercial fishing sector, including RODA.

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Report: Over 77000 Trained On-Site Workers Needed in Emerging Offshore Wind Markets by 2024 – Offshore WIND

Posted: at 3:43 am

The offshore wind industry will need 77,000 GWO-trained on-site workers to deliver forecast installations in six key emerging markets for offshore wind between 2020-2024, a new report has found.

Published by the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) and Global Wind Organisation (GWO), Powering the Future: Global Offshore Wind Workforce Outlook 2020-2024 provides a qualitative analysis of the workforce training needs required to fulfill offshore market forecasts in North America, China, Taiwan, Japan, Vietnam, and South Korea.

Research determined that 2.5 workers per MW per project are needed to deliver the 31 GW forecast for these six markets.

The research was built upon GWO training data and GWEC Market Intelligence forecasts, combined with data from Renewables Consulting Groups GRIP database and a series of industry interviews.

The offshore wind industry is growing exponentially and there is no doubt that it will become a major driver of the energy transition across the world, with GWEC Market Intelligence forecasting 51GW of new offshore installations globally by 2024, Ben Backwell, CEO at GWEC, said.

The findings in this report are an important tool to match global market trends with local training needs and build a coherent roadmap for thriving offshore wind industries in emerging markets. These markets are moving faster than we have ever seen before, and it is crucial that workforce training keeps up to build a good reputation for the sector and ensure growth opportunities for years to come.

The Powering the Future report also underscores key workforce supply chain bottlenecks that must be addressed in order to realise these large-scale training needs.

Barriers include a lack of training centres, lack of familiarity with standards and risk of standards being perceived as imposed and unreflective of local context.

Additionally, the current COVID-19 crisis will pose a new challenge to both workforce and turbine supply chains to reach the worlds offshore wind ambitions.

Having a GWO trained workforce is often the missing piece of the puzzle when considering a new offshore wind project in any given market, but this should be seen as a top priority in nascent markets to secure their long-term growth and create thousands of local jobs, Jakob Lau Holst, CEO at GWO, said.

GWO already has training centres in China, the US and Taiwan, but we will need to ramp up training centres in these regions drastically to train the necessary workforce of almost 78,000 people. Due to the ongoing COVID-19 crisis, GWO is also rolling out digital training platforms to ensure continuity in training and continue driving forward the global energy transition.

This report is the first output of GWEC and GWOs partnership signed in November 2019 and is supported by research partners Renewables Consulting Group.

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The Coronavirus Might Force Minor Parties Off the 2020 Ballot – New York Magazine

Posted: at 3:41 am

Green Party presidential front-runner Howie Hawkins. Photo: Erik McGregor/Pacific Press/LightRocket via Getty Images

If the 2020 presidential election becomes another tense, tight contest like the last one, with candidates battling for Electoral College votes across a complex battleground, minor-party voting could again be an important factor in the outcome. Of the many factors that led to Donald Trumps threading-the-needle win, an unusually high level of votes for Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein is impossible to dismiss entirely, as the Guardian noted immediately after the election:

[Trumps 12,000-vote margin was] significantly less than the 242,867 votes that went to third-party candidates in Michigan. Its a similar story elsewhere: third-party candidates won more total votes than the Trumps margin of victory in Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina and Florida. Without those states, Trump would not have won the presidency.

In part because Johnson and Stein were each running for a second consecutive time, they did very well by the standards of their parties:

Johnson (and running mate William Weld), who was on the ballot in all 50 states, won nearly 4.5 million votes; only once (four years earlier, with Johnson as the nominee) had the Libertarians topped 1 million votes. Stein and Ajamu Baraka, on the ballot in 45 states, didnt match Naders enormous 2000 vote, but with around one percent of the total, they beat the previous three Green presidential tickets combined.

Both the Libertarians and the Greens will have new nominees this year who will have to work for name identification and credibility. But the bigger problem they face is the threshold challenge of ballot access, with the coronavirus pandemic complicating the task immeasurably, as Bill Scher explains for Politico:

In 2016, the Libertarian Party was on the general election ballot in all 50 states; this year, it has secured ballot access in just 35. Similarly, the Green Partywhich in 2016 had its best election ever by making the ballot in 44 states, with a further three states granting the partys candidate official write-in statushas qualified for the November ballot in only 22 states

At present, neither the Libertarian Party nor the Green Party has qualified for the ballot in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Iowa or Minnesota. Additionally, the Green Party has not secured a place on the ballot in Arizona, Georgia or Nevada, and the Libertarian Party is missing from Maine.

Collecting the petitions necessary for minor-party ballot access is always a chore. Getting it done during a pandemic is extremely difficult. Unsurprisingly, third-party representatives are asking states to waive petition requirements entirely (as Vermont just did, via legislation), or at least delay existing deadlines. But they also plan to go to court with a combination of traditional and pandemic-related arguments that barriers to the ballot infringe upon voting rights. Prospects for success are at best mixed, as Scher reports:

Those kind of cases are not slam dunks because courts are generally wary of changing election rules, said Rick Hasen of University of California Irvine School of Law, citing litigation over this months primary election in Wisconsin, which culminated in the U.S. Supreme Court deciding that the state could not extend the deadline for mail-in ballots because existing state law implied they needed to be postmarked by Election Day. The Court majority was not very moved by arguments about Covid-19 being a compelling enough reason to change from the ordinary requirements of an election, Hasen said.

I would be shocked if the minor parties do as well in terms of ballot access this year as they did [in 2016], said Michael S. Kang of Northwestern Universitys Pritzker School of Law. He argues because of a lack of binding precedents, judges have a lot of discretion. In turn, he expects a mixed response with some states providing relief and others refusing to change the rules.

Ballot access aside, the minor parties will simply be struggling for attention during the pandemic, much like other political actors who are not in a position to command media coverage of official actions germane to public health and economic recovery. And its unlikely they will attract as much support as Johnson and Stein did. Green front-runner Howie Hawkins is known to some for his claim that he was the originator of the Green New Deal but is not a national figure. And the Libertarians seem to be going through a purist phase, departing from their recent practice of handing their presidential nomination to dissident Republicans like Johnson. The current front-runner, Jacob Hornberger, is committed to the very poorly timed idea of abolishing the Fed and moving to a deflationary hard-money currency.

Yes, independent (and ex-Republican) congressman Justin Amash is flirting with a Libertarian candidacy; a lot may depend on whether the party delays its May convention in Texas. Amash could raise Libertarian prospects significantly, in part because hes from the key battleground state of Michigan and gained significant national attention by voting for Trumps impeachment.

Ballot-access appeals by the Greens and the Libertarians could open the door for other minor parties, notably the far-right Constitution Party, which is already on the ballot in 15 states, including battlegrounds Florida, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin. The best-known candidate for that partys nomination (which will be determined by phone balloting May 12) is former West Virginia coal baron Don Blankenship. Most famous for a strange, more-Trumpian-than-Trump Senate Republican primary run in 2018, featuring wild charges that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell was involved in the drug trade, Blankenship has the wealth to self-finance something of a campaign.

The relevance of any minor-party presidential candidate, of course, will depend on the dynamics of the major-party competition. Arguably a key factor in the abundant 2016 protest vote was the widespread belief that Hillary Clinton had the presidency in the bag. Its extremely unlikely that opinion leaders or voters will be so confident in the outcome this time around. But crazy things can happen in crazy-close elections, so keeping an eye on the Greens, the Libertarians, and even the theocrats of the Constitution Party as the battle for ballot access unfolds would be a good idea.

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Who should be included in the libertarian canon – UConn Daily Campus

Posted: at 3:41 am

Many are familiar with the long intellectual tradition of progressivism within academia. While progressive ideas may hold true, it is important students are exposed to the full breadth of knowledge academia holds. Without ideological diversity, students lose the critical thinking skills to discern between important ideas. Who I think should be included in the libertarian canon is merely a sample, but sufficient enough for readers to get their feet wet in libertarianism. My methodology is multidisciplinary, ranging from literature, to economics and more. All of the figures in this article are a product of my own research and I have never been formally taught any of them in school, which is why it is doubly important this message is expressed. Besides, one of the main tenets of libertarianism is self-directed education.

Firstly, lets discuss literature. My favorite author, George Orwell was a libertarian socialist. Another author, Ayn Rand, was a libertarian capitalist. Ive read both 1984 and Animal Farm by George Orwell and enjoyed them, thoroughly. Both were a critique of the overreach of government and totalitarianism. Some readers believe Snowball and Napoleon from Animal Farm represent dictators, Stalin and Trotsky.

Orwell also coined such phrases as The real division is not between conservatives and revolutionaries but between authoritarians and libertarians, and If liberty means anything at all, it means the right to tell people what they do not want to hear. In short this man stood up for and advocated what he believed in: libertarianism.

As for Ayn Rand: I listened to half of her audiobook, Anthem. The book is written in first-person, plural pronouns. Individuality in the book is deemphasized. In fact, individuality is an important theme in her books and her philosophy, which she called Objectivism. Though I disagree with major components of Objectivism it believes altruism is evil I appreciate that it stresses capitalism, individualism and limited government. Ive been learning a lot about Ayn Rands work through her think tanks and through Yaron Brook, businessman and president of the Ayn Rand institute.

Economics is where the vast majority of libertarian theories arises. It goes without saying that I believe students should study the works of F.A. Hayek and Ludwig von Mises. As Hayek says, The argument for liberty is not an argument against organization, which is one of the most powerful tools human reason can employ, but an argument against all exclusive, privileged, monopolistic organization, against the use of coercion to prevent others from doing better. Despite these economists long accolades and contributions to society, my favorite economist is someone else, an obscure economist from Virginia.

I first became a fan of economist Bryan Caplan when I was googling libertarian quizzes, several years ago. From there, I became curious about his work, watching lectures, interviews and debates he participated in. I eventually bought two of his books, The Case Against Education and Open Borders. Caplans statistics were educational and pointed to an idea he called signalling, the idea that educations mere purpose is to convey intelligence, conformity and conscientiousness. In Open Borders, he explained a philosophical thought experiment my favorite about a man named Marvin. I had emailed Dr. Caplan last summer, out of sheer curiosity, about his positions of abolishing the FDA and anti-discrimination laws, ideas hes defended in the past. He answered my emails, thanking me for emailing him, along with a link for senior economics students, using statistics to convey why the general public is not bigoted. Overall, it was an interesting read, but Im not sure if Im ready to repeal anti-discrimination laws just yet, but he definitely deserves to be in the canon.

Overall, this is a sampling of who should be in the libertarian canon. You are free to research, enjoy and discern between opinions. I hope this article helps someone in exploring libertarianism, even if they decide libertarianism is not for them.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed by individual writers in the opinion section do not reflect the views and opinions of The Daily Campus or other staff members. Only articles labeled Editorial are the official opinions of The Daily Campus.

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The Government Has a Lot More Emergency Powers Than Libertarians Like, but It Still Can’t Control Everything – Cato Institute

Posted: at 3:41 am

Dont these orders go beyond the Commerce Clause, infringe the Privileges or Immunities Clause, or violate one of the other constitutional provisions Im constantly banging on about? Surely Icant approve such extreme impositions on economic liberty, the right to travel, and just the basic freedom to go about your daily life as you choose so long as you dont get in the way of others freedom to do the same?

Well, thats the rub. As Iexplained during Catos online forum on Coronavirus and the Constitution, in apandemic when we dont know whos infected and infections are often asymptomatic, these sorts of restrictions end up maximizing freedom. The traditional libertarian principle that one has aright to swing ones fists, but that right ends at the tip of someone elses nose, means government can restrict our movements and activities, because were all fistswingers now.

This isnt like seatbelt mandates or soda restrictions, where the government regulates your behavior for our own good, becausesetting aside the issue of publicly borne health care coststhe only person you hurt by not wearing aseatbelt or drinking too much sugar is yourself. With communicable diseases, you violate others rights just by being around them.

The federal government is one of enumerated and thus limited powersat least in theory, if observed largely in the breach since the New Dealbut states have police powers to govern for the public health, safety, welfare, and morals (the last one having fallen away in recent decades). Accordingly, in light of the best epidemiological data we have, state and local executives ordered shut downs to prevent people from being around too many other people and thus spreading the disease.

Interestingly, despite the infamous pictures of springbreakers and St. Patricks Day revelers, these government actions were lagging indicators. Restaurant traffic and airline travel fell off acliff before any official action. Airports are still open, even though the president has total authority to shut them down, as George W. Bush did on 9/11.

People began socialdistancing and wearing masks without any edicts. Sports leagues canceled their seasons without so much as a dont play ball from state umpires.

Not being satisfied with this largescale recognition of the threat we face and compliance with commonsense rules for the new normal, however, governors and mayors have begun to overreach. Although Ihad been telling reporters that nobody was going to get arrested for reading in the park or enjoying wildlife with her family, police were indeed telling people to move along if they were in apublic space, even if they were nowhere near anybody else.

When we got questions at that Cato forum about restrictions on the sale of nonessential products or prohibitions on fishinga right going back to Magna Carta!I thought these were farfetched hypotheticals, but it turns out they were all too real.

Then came the bans on parking at achurch and staying in your car to hear asermon, ahead of Easter Sunday, no less, which led toone of the best district court opinionsIve read in along time, reversing such an order in Louisville. (Full disclosure: Judge Justin Walker is afriend, and Im advising the Mississippi Justice Institute on one of these cases in Greenville, Miss.)

Look, this isnt about religious liberty, or any other constitutional right in particular. Assuming that socialdistancing is required to flatten the curve and fight COVID-19, such rules are fine so long as theyre applied equally everywhere, whether to yoga studios or churches, hackathons or street protests.

But theyre not fine when theyre arbitrarily targeted at some businesses and not others, as if coronavirus spreads more in gun shops than liquor stores. Theyre also not fine when they have nothing to do with socialdistancing, as with the fatwas against drivein liturgy or closing only aisles three and five of abigbox store. Or when tennis courts are closed even if the players wear allwhite masks and promise not to both go to the net at the same time. Or that video of the cop chasing that poor guy going for arun on the beach by his lonesome.

These ridiculous examples of petty tyranny led to mymost viral tweet ever: Angered by citations for being in park with nuclear family, or in car at church, or running on the beach. Or nonessential goods roped off in stores. These things have nothing to do with fighting the virus and everything to do with powerhungry politicians and law enforcement.

Just because significant restrictions on our daytoday lives are warranted doesnt mean its afreeforall for government coercion. To borrow alegal standard from adifferent context, the rules have to be congruent and proportional to the harm being addressed. As amatter of law, judges will give executives awide berth to deal with acrisis, but their enforcement measures still have to pass the constitutional smell test.

More fundamentally, any regulations that dont make common sense, that arent seen as reasonable by most people, are simply not going to be taken as legitimate, and they wont be followed. The American people will decide what restrictions are reasonable, and for how long. Just like they decided when to shut down, they have total authority to decide when to reopen.

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The Government Has a Lot More Emergency Powers Than Libertarians Like, but It Still Can't Control Everything - Cato Institute

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Opinion | A new populist revolution is here. Don’t buy in. – The Daily Northwestern

Posted: at 3:41 am

On April 15, protesters in Michigan railed against Gov. Gretchen Whitmers stay-at-home executive order. Spurred by right-wing media goliaths like Tucker Carlson and Rush Limbaugh, demonstrators took to the streets of Lansing, holding signs and waving flags. Some of the signs compared Gov. Whitmer to Adolf Hitler. Some protesters waved Confederate flags. Republican National Committee chair Ronna McDaniel tweeted that Democrat Gretchen Whitmer is turning Michigan into a police state.

Sound familiar?

The Tea Party burst onto the national scene in February 2009 after the Obama administration announced the Homeowners Affordability and Stability Plan, which refinanced mortgages while the country was in the throes of the Great Recession. The first national Tea Party protest was on Feb. 27, 2009, but the seeds of the movement were sown before that day.

Modern right-wing populism was born in a time similar to this one, during a recession with a big-government response. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson proposed what would become the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 on September 20 of that year, and while the bailouts were necessary to save the global economy, they were unpopular. Grassroots organizations on both the left and right mobilized against the Acts Troubled Asset Relief Program. Protesters on the left argued against what they perceived to be a policy package that would only help Wall Street, not ordinary Americans, in step with the lefts positions on Wall Street for decades. Opposition to TARP on the right came from a new movement.

When the Bush administration unveiled its bailout plan, fiscal libertarians who would become the Tea Party felt that TARP was the government picking winners and losers in the economy. Staunch advocates against federal intervention, they immediately opposed the plan, despite evidence that without it, Americans would soon be unable to get money from ATMs.

Libertarian conservatives were not unreasonable in their growing discontent with President George W. Bush. The compassionate conservatism he campaigned on manifested in big-government policy. It makes sense that some Republicans felt like their leader had abandoned them with Medicare Part D. Civil libertarians in the party werent happy with the Patriot Act either, as they felt it represented big government violating citizens privacy. The Bush administration also found resistance to its stance on immigration; a nascent paleoconservative wing of the party defeated Bushs immigration reform plan because of the path to citizenship it sought to provide to illegal immigrants.

Conservatives werent stupid to think the Tea Party was going to right the ship. Tea Party candidates won handily in the 2010 midterms, but their time in Washington was indicative of a greater issue in the movement.

Tea Party protesters held signs and waved flags. A lot of the signs compared Obama to Hitler. Occasionally, protestors had Confederate flags. Tea Party Republicans complained that Obama was turning this country into a police state, taking their guns and taxing the bejesus out of them.

Conservative intelligentsia largely saw the Tea Party as a vehicle for a return to Reagan-era conservatism. Tea Party candidates evoked the Gippers memory in their speeches and policies. In fact, Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), who rode the Tea Party wave into office in 2010, was hailed as the next Reagan before his 2016 presidential campaign.

But it was all a lie.

If Tea Party voters actually cared about limited government and the separation of powers, they couldnt possibly be Trump supporters.

The thing is, it was never about principles.

Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), a libertarian hardliner, said to the Washington Examiner of his voters:

All this time, I thought they were voting for libertarian Republicans. But after some soul searching I realized when they voted for Rand and Ron and me in these primaries, they werent voting for libertarian ideasthey were voting for the craziest son of a b- in the race.

Massie is spot-on here. The vast majority of Tea Party voters and politicians still in office have pledged fealty to Donald Total Authority Trump, certainly not deigning to investigate his flagrant corruption, their one-time raison dtre. The anti-Whitmer protest, and similar demonstrations across the country, are nothing more than a redux of the Tea Partys beginnings this time without any pretense of support for the free market and limited government.

Lets not get caught up in the same narrative. It was all about tearing down the establishment. Real Americans versus the latte-sipping elites. Thats what it is now, too. Trump, in his unwillingness to listen to medical and epidemiological experts, is a man of the people. Hes draining the swamp when he reassigns career public servants Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman and his brother from the National Security Council to lower posts after Vindman testifies against him in his impeachment hearings.

Bulwark founder and editor-at-large, Charlie Sykes, wrote Thursday that on the populist right, there is no tension between outrage over the Nanny State and slavish devotion to the Orange God King. Although as a matter of political philosophy or logic you would think those two things would be incompatible, as a matter of psychology theyre not.

Hes absolutely right on that point. Its a psychology of war, one that the Tea Party instilled in the partys identity, and that persists today. John McCain was a squishy RINO in 2008 to the conservative wing of the party, so he picked Sarah Palin, who ended up being maybe the highest-profile Tea Party leader. Mitt Romney wasnt conservative enough, and he picked Paul Ryan, who, while as conservative as Tea Party politicians, was seen as too much of a Washington policy wonk.

The right wing of the Republican Party wanted someone to take up the cause. Not of conservatism, but of populism. Donald Trump is the strongman who can give power back to the people the president who will tweet all-caps calls to LIBERATE three states, which might have been incitement.

Its not as if there arent valid reasons for all kinds of Americans to be distrustful of government and our countrys institutions. If the 21st century can be described in one word, that word would be disillusionment. But Trumps goal, and greatest strength, is self-preservation. Hell do whatever he and his team think necessary for him to stay in power.

What happens next?

Trump will likely exploit growing populist indignation, pitting Americans against one another even more than he did in 2016. Hell double down on immigration, citing the coronavirus pandemic as a reason to tighten border security. Hell claim countless powers he doesnt have, all while calling Biden a big-government socialist. His supporters wont call him out on his hypocrisy, because to them, the president isnt the government. Hes a fighter, and the government is the deep state that he has to beat.

My hope is that real conservatives dont fall prey to this faux-libertarian movement the way the right did a decade ago. Considering the responses to Trumps claim that when somebodys the president of the United States, the authority is total and Trumps history of not typically following through on his loudest pronouncements, I doubt anything shockingly more apocalyptic than what were currently experiencing comes to pass. Im sure there will be protests, more hand-wringing from elected Republicans when Trump says something particularly egregious about liberating states and Democrats taking guns, but not much more.

Polling data overwhelmingly shows that Americans support social isolation measures and stay-at-home orders. The divide between those who do and dont is almost entirely partisan. Americans are growing increasingly frustrated with the federal response to the pandemic, and theyre not the ones out in the streets protesting. The new silent majority is the moderate suburban voter, and their vote is right there for Joe Biden to pick up.

If he does, and is elected president of the United States, this new Tea Party wont pick up much political momentum, but itll exist as long as we as a country feel the effects of coronavirus. And theres no telling how long the GOPs populist turn will last, but its clear that its never been about conservative principles.

Zach Kessel is a Medill freshman. He can be contacted at zachkessel2023@u.northwestern.edu. If you would like to respond publicly to this op-ed, send a Letter to the Editor to opinion@dailynorthwestern.com. The views expressed in this piece do not necessarily reflect the views of all staff members of The Daily Northwestern.

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COVID-19 is killing minor parties’ ability to get candidates on the ballot in Minnesota – MinnPost

Posted: at 3:41 am

The most fertile places for Minnesotas minor political parties to gather signatures to get their candidates on the ballot are lakes and festivals. But COVID-19 has made both off-limits for party petitioners and going door-to-door isnt a viable alternative.

So the leaders of Minnesotas Libertarian, Green and Independence-Alliance parties have asked state lawmakers for emergency relief to let them gather those signatures electronically.

Secretary of State Steve Simon has included that provision among several others related to the peacetime emergency caused by the coronavirus. But that request has been caught up in the fight over expanded vote by mail in Minnesota.

Under state election law, minor parties must gather signatures of 2,000 registered voters to place a U.S. Senate candidate before fall voters; 1,000 signatures for a U.S. House candidate; and 500 for state House and Senate candidates. They must collect those signatures from May 19 to June 2 (though they have more time for a presidential nominee).

Minnesotas requirements are already a heavy lift, the parties complain, which is why they are part of a federal lawsuit that is set to be heard on May 19.

We can only get so many signatures every day, and we only have 14 days to do it, maybe it limits the number of candidates for us, said Chris Holbrook, the chair of the Minnesota Libertarian party. The coronavirus only underscores the structural problems that we started suing on last year in the first place.

He said the Libertarians get 80 percent of the signatures needed by petitioning around the lakes in Minneapolis and at festivals like Grand Old Day in St. Paul. The parks will likely remain closed and Grand Old Day has been cancelled this year.

MinnPost photo by Peter Callaghan

Libertarian Party Chair Chris Holbrook

The Libertarians are working with the Green Party and the Independence-Alliance Party to win the changes at the capitol.

Were all in the same boat, Holbrook said of the other parties. They have their different political philosophies and ideologies, and were not merging our political efforts with the exception of all minor parties are going to get screwed if they dont give us some option to participate.

The lawsuit is asking the U.S. District Court for injunctive relief to extend the petition window to the August 11 state primary date. At the same time, the minor parties have also asked Gov. Tim Walz to use an executive order to change the dates or lower the signature requirements. Finally, the parties are also asking the legislature to allow electronic signatures so we dont endanger the public or ourselves in getting our candidates on the ballots.

But Holbrook said the changes minor parties have asked for have previously been blocked by legislative Republicans, and that he expects a similar reaction this year.

The bill before the House State Government Finance subcommittee addressing some of the minor parties concerns tries to do a lot of things. Initially, the purpose of the bill was to appropriate money sent to the states by Congress for cybersecurity projects. While some of that money was eventually cleared for use by Secretary of State Steve Simon, an argument between DFLer Simon and the GOP-controlled Senate over voter ID and provisional balloting has left the rest, some $7.39 million, unappropriated. (In the meantime, Congress has sent even more money to the states, this time for COVID-19 related expenses related to elections; Minnesotas share is $6.9 million.)

Amendments to the bill, House File 3499, would give Simon the authority to make other election changes if the COVID-19 crisis continues through the primary and general elections. Those changes could include ordering the closure of high-risk polling places such as those in long-term care facilities. It would also authorize remote filing for office as well as extend the period before and after elections for absentee ballots to be processed and counted. Finally, it would respond to the request of the minor parties to be allowed to gather petition signatures electronically.

It is not really right and fair to make supporters of those parties go door-to-door or to public places to gather physical human signatures, Simon told the House committee Thursday. We might have our differences with people from non-major parties, but to ask them to go out and hustle signatures in public places doesnt seem very safe.

MinnPost photo by Greta Kaul

Secretary of State Steve Simon

Vote-by-mail has drawn opposition for national and state Republicans, making it unlikely to pass the GOP-controlled Senate. But Rep. Jim Nash, R-Waconia, said he was leery of giving Simon any of the emergency powers the bill envisions. Instead, the Legislature could return to pass changes related to COVID-19 should they be needed as the election dates draw nearer.

Im hesitant to say were gonna wrap this up in a bow and let the secretary figure it out, Nash said. The Legislature has to continue operating as the Legislature. We have the election certificates, we have the ability to make these changes, committees are still meeting, we have a commitment to address election issues.

Rep. Michael Nelson, a DFLer from Brooklyn Park and chair of the committee, said the committee will keep working on the bill. I dont see this as us handing huge powers to the Secretary of State, Nelson said.

Current law does not allow any changes to polling places after December, 2019, for example, so moving or combining them because of concerns over COVID exposure must be authorized by the Legislature. There are things that have got to get done in here, he said.

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COVID-19 is killing minor parties' ability to get candidates on the ballot in Minnesota - MinnPost

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