Daily Archives: April 9, 2020

By Prakash Chandra

In recorded history, theres never been a worse time to catch a cold, as Covid-19 devastates populations and economies. Efforts to arrest the outbreak are hamstrung by the absence of definitive diagnostic tools as clinical symptoms like high fever, aches, and dry cough could also indicate other illnesses.

Pandemics usually occur every 20-30 years, the time it takes for a flu strain to change its genetic makeup so dramatically that people -- with little immunity built up from earlier bouts of flu -- would be most vulnerable. After the 1968 Hong Kong flu epidemic and the H5N1 bird flu in 1997, the last major outbreak was the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (Sars) -- whose causative germ shares more than 80% of its genome with Covid-19 -- in 2003.

So Covid-19 ties in with this strange timeline. That scientists managed to shut out the coronaviruses behind Sars and the 2012 Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (Mers) gives hope, although Covid-19 is much more infectious than either.

So, could this lethal microbe be a bioweapon? Some contend it is an experimental germ that accidently escaped from a Chinese lab. The Chinese, in any case, owe a big apology to the world for having kept a dark secret like Covid-19 for too long, making it too late for other nations to batten down their hatches. Others argue it is the handiwork of the worlds most powerful military, which used the planets most populated country as proving grounds for a new bioweapon.

Military experts, however, dismiss these concerns as conspiracy theories or propaganda in the absence of incontrovertible evidence. But one thing is certain: this is a grim reminder of the threat of weaponised pathogens and the pressing need to revise the 1975 Biological Weapons Convention (BWC).

BWC was written to outlaw biological weapons and prohibited the production or stockpiling of biological agents that have no justification for prophylactic, protective or other peaceful purposes. Ironically, militaries do not consider lab-created pandemic pathogens as good bioweapons, as their high transmissibility would also cripple the attackers.

BWC has failed the world on two counts. One is the absence of a monitoring mechanism and its dependence on signatory states having their own legal biosecurity safeguards. Voluntary adherence never works for international agreements, and BWC is no exception.

BWCs other omission is its silence on regulating academic research on bio-agents. The line dividing academic research (aimed at public health) and the development of bioweapons is thin. And even if most of such research is not aimed at building offensive bioweapons, it still leaves the field open for germ warfare science to develop dual use capabilities.

Many believe the odds of lab-created pathogens being accidentally released triggering a pandemic are actually higher than that of a natural pandemic. The double jeopardy here is that researchers who produce potentially pandemic pathogens seldom give the bioweaponry risk of their work top priority, and BWC cannot monitor the dual-use nature of such data to assess their public health benefits.

No wonder countries like the US, China and Russia have exploited this loophole to run their bioweapons programmes, often in the guise of civilian biotech research. There have been at least 15 reported instances in the last 40 years when germ warfare was actually used, and ten accidental releases of pathogens from biosafety level four (BSL)4 labs the highest level of biosecurity controls in the last 30 years.

In that sense, Covid 19 is the canary in the coal mine, warning humanity against trying to harness the destructive power of pathogens whose lethal nature is simply the consequence of their evolution. It is only when we mess with their natural design to fashion weapons that horrors visit the world.

Having let the germ war genie out of the bottle, none of the big powers can now disown responsibility. The least they can do is sit together and revise BWC, or write a new disarmament treaty with a global mechanism for verifying and ensuring strict compliance, including sanctions against violators.

Exemplifying the current chaos, the US Justice Department, last month, acknowledged Covid-19s potential for being weaponised and warned of action against anyone attempting it. There is even a private $20 trillion lawsuit in the US against China for allegedly releasing Covid-19 as part of a bioweapons project. Undoubtedly, a strong BWC is the need of the hour.

With a BWC review scheduled for next year, India has excellent credentials for steering the discussions on framing a new convention. Having never pursued an active bioweapons programme, Indias biodefence effort, which began in the early-1970s, is transparent and supported by its remarkable biotech infrastructure.

The time has come for a new world order that eschews bioweapons, where countries develop protective equipment, vaccines and pharmaceuticals all within the legal landscape of a robust global treaty that effectively addresses biosecurity concerns.

DISCLAIMER : Views expressed above are the author's own.

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Canary in the Bioweapon Coal Mine: The lessons of Covid 19 pandemic - Economic Times

ZZZWAP! Take that COVID-19. Dr. Marvel of Medicine, Amy Acton, is front and center in the fight against the coronavirus in Ohio. Her cape, a white lab coat, represents her mission to conquer the mayhem of planet pandemic. Committed. Calm. Composed.

"I have the honor of wearing this white coat, which I know has become a little bit iconic. But it became very clear to me that I'm wearing a symbol of all my friends and colleagues and your family members who are out on the front lines," Acton said at a recent press conference in Columbus, Ohio. "I'm thinking about you a lot more than I can express because I've spent many years on the front lines and sometimes feel frustrated that I can't just come in there and work alongside of you in doing this bigger picture planning. But this white coat represents all of you.

Even with my back against the wall I dont give up! This quote by Captain Marvel (female superhero) sounds a lot like what Dr. Acton would assert.

Marvels superhero action sci-fi, set in the mid-1990s, follows the story of Carol Danvers (Brie Larson), a former U.S. Air Force fighter pilot, as she turns into a galaxy hero and joins Starforce, an elite Kree military team, before returning home with new questions about her past and identity when the Earth is caught in the center of an intergalactic conflict between two alien races.

Dr. Marvel of Medicine, an avenger to the virus villain, uses her knowledge, words, and experience to educate Ohioans. THWAPP! Take that COVID-19.

Amy Acton, M.D., MPH was appointed director of health for the Ohio Department of Health by Governor Mike DeWine in February 2019 the first woman to hold the position of Director of Ohio's Public Health Department. Go Amy! A licensed physician in preventive medicine with a Masters Degree in Public Health, Dr. Acton has more than 30 years of experience in medical practice, government and community service, healthcare policy and advocacy, academic and nonprofit administration, consulting, teaching, and data analysis.

Posts on Twitter, Reddit, and Instagram speak to her leadership. The Dr. Amy Acton Fan Club Facebook group has mucho members. Shes a modern fan-fave.

Kudos to Dr. Marvel of Medicine and Governor Mighty Mike the dynamic duo fighting germ warfare and keeping Ohioans safe.

Fear is not a choice. What you do with it is. Captain Marvel

Melissa Martin, Ph.D., is an author, columnist, educator, and therapist. She lives in Southern Ohio. Contact her at melissamcolumnist@gmail.com

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Dr. Marvel of Medicine to the rescue - Pike County News Watchman

As a classical scholar, our prime minister will be all too aware of some uncanny parallels between the onset of coronavirus and the plague that beset Athens in 430BC.

The immortal historian Thucydides wrote: At the beginning the doctors were quite incapable of treating the disease because of their ignorance of the right methods In fact, mortality among the doctors was the highest of all since they came more frequently in contact with the sick.

Again: Among the symptoms were sneezing and hoarseness of voice, and before long the pain settled on the chest and was accompanied by coughing.

Sound familiar? The plague struck just after the Athenians leader, Pericles, delivered his great funeral oration over the dead from the war against Sparta. Alas, Pericles himself died of the plague, and not long after Athenss glory was in decline.

Most historians would no doubt say that Britains glory days began their decline after the second world war. But one of the lessons from that war was that, well before it ended, the coalition government under Conservative prime minister Winston Churchill and Labour deputy prime minister Clement Attlee was planning for the aftermath.

One of the main things on Attlees mind was that the poor social conditions of the interwar years should not be experienced again. Central to postwar planning was the formation of the NHS under the first Attlee administration of 1945-50, which was set up, amid fierce resistance from the medical profession, by Aneurin Bevan in 1948.

There was no NHS in ancient Athens, and there is no NHS in the United States. To put it another way: we have a health service, they have a health sector. That is an important reason why, for all the well-publicised mishandling of this crisis in the UK, the US, still the mightiest economy in the world, seems to be in for an even bigger shock from the virus than we are experiencing.

At this point as one who was born a year before the outbreak of the 1939-45 war I hope readers will forgive me if I point to an important difference in the dangers to the general public between then and now. Thus I confess that my initial inclination when asked what I felt personally about the virus as opposed to thoughts about the disturbing political and economic implications was to say something like: This is nothing like watching flying bombs overhead, listening as their engines switched off, and hoping they didnt land on you. In fact one did land on the church at the end of our road and shattered our windows while we were safe in the Anderson shelter in the garden.

The end of capitalism? I doubt it. The Tories suddenly becoming fully paid-up Keynesians? For how long, I wonder

The awful thing about this plague is that it is more like the Athenian one 2,500 years ago or the Spanish flu of 1918. It doesnt fly in or explode, it just hits people unawares that is to say, we are aware of the danger, but dont know if or when it will hit. A timely reminder of the horrors of germ warfare.

In common with most of the population, I feel as if I am under house arrest. But when I hear and read so many comments about draconian conditions, my classical background comes back to me. There is a breed of historians who say that the common understanding of the epithet draconian is a misrepresentation, and that Draco wasnt that bad: he merely codified existing civic practices.

On the other hand, lets face it: in ancient Athens, Draco prescribed the death penalty for petty theft even of cabbages, if you please. According to Plutarch, this produced the memorable comment that his laws were written not in ink but in blood.

So frankly, in the circumstances, I do not regard being asked to take precautions about the threat to my own and other peoples health indeed, lives as draconian.

But back to the economy. The unemployment and bankruptcy news is horrendous, and likely to get worse before it gets better.

There will be plenty of time in the coming months to examine the implications. But at this stage I should just issue a health warning (sorry) against taking some of the instant conclusions too seriously. The end of capitalism? I doubt it. The Conservative and Brexit party suddenly repenting of 10 years of austerity and becoming fully paid-up Keynesians? For how long, I wonder.

Finally, why are we in this mess? Could it possibly be anything to do with the fact that during 10 years of austerity, public spending on health was budgeted to rise by 1% a year at most (in real terms that is, after inflation) whereas all the professionals knew that it needed to rise by 4% a year merely to cope with the pressures of an ageing population and, especially, the cost of technological advance?

And could it also possibly be because this governments crazed obsession with Brexit means that it shut itself out of the joint ordering of vital medical supplies with the 27 members of the European Union? I merely ask.

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Plagues and wars alter economic policies: but not for ever - The Guardian

Key point:Underwater carriers would have been impractical had they ever come to fruition. Like Nazi Germany's many wonder weapons, a lot of these plans were too little, too late.

As soon as Colonel James Doolittles B-25 raid struck Japan in April 1942, Japan sought to wreak revenge on the United States, but by 1944 devastating aerial bombings on Japan by the Americans had become all too regular.

It was not until early 1945 that the Imperial Japanese Navy (IJN) was ready to strike America even further than it already had on December 7, 1941. After considering, then ruling out San Francisco, San Diego, New York City, and Washington, D.C. as targets, the IJN chiefs settled on Americas vital Panama Canal. The plan to disable the canalthrough which the United States was funneling military resources from the Atlantic to the Pacific without the long voyage around the southern tip of South Americahad been the brainchild of Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto, the architect of Japans attack on Pearl Harbor.

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The plans called for an aerial bombing by specially designed attack planes launched from surfaced submarines. Those submarines, the Sensuika, or I-400 Series, would be the largest submarines the world would see for decades to come. Loosely translated as Secret Attack Submarine, Sensuikan was shortened to Sen Toku.

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In mid-1942, Yamamoto foresaw two things: how susceptible Japan would become to American aerial bombing and how Japan could reciprocate against American soil. From that he envisioned 18 huge submarinesbasically underwater aircraft carriersthat could ferry attack bombers to their targets. Although Yamamotos plan envisioned two planes per submarine to attack Americas shoreline cities, in actuality each I-400 was designed to ferry three Aichi M6A Seiran Mountain Haze planes.

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Construction on the Sen Toku behemoths began on April 25, 1943, one week after Yamamoto was shot down and killed by American P-38s over Bougainville in the Solomons. But with Yamamotos death and the fortunes of war turning against Japan, there was nobody to champion Yamamotos dream.

Delays plagued the project from the beginning. The I-400 prototype, built at Hiroshima Bays Kure Navy Yard, was not commissioned until December 30, 1944, while both the I-401 and I-402 were laid down shortly thereafter at the Sasebo Navy Yard Docks at Nagasaki. Further, the naval construction facilities at Kure and Sasebo were often targeted by American planes but the damage was insignificant; the American bomber pilots had no knowledge of the giant submarines being built beneath them.

On January 8, 1945, the I-401 was commissioned and, six months later, on July 24, 1945, came the I-402. Once completed and out to sea, these vessels would become Submarine Division One.

Of the planned 18 submarines, however, only three would be completed: the I-400, I-401, and I-402; numbers I-404 and I-405 were still under construction when the war ended in August 1945. The remaining proposed fleet of the I-Series403 and 406-417was scrapped before construction could begin. In their place came two new submarinesthe I-13 and I-14that were smaller but still held the same design aspirations.

The Sen Toku were beyond comprehension of any navy but that of Japan; they were 60 percent larger than any submarine America would put forth until the nuclear submarine age. The most important part of the I-400s were the planes they sequestered within their watertight forward hangars. Japan had long mastered the art of flying piggy-backed scouting planes off of their surfaced subs.

The sea beast I-400 series measured 400 feet long with a beam of 39 feet and a draft of 23 feet. It was a double-hull configuration that the Soviets would replicate 30 years later. It operated on four diesel engines of 7,700 horsepower with two electric motors as back up. The subs surface tonnage was 5,223 tons; when submerged, it weighed 6,560 tons.

Prior to their deployment, the I-400s had retractable snorkels fitted. When they were submerged for extensive periods, fresh air could be taken in while poisonous diesel exhaust fumes would be expelled. The sea-roaming range was a staggering 37,500 miles without refueling. Their fastest surface speed just topped 18 knots; submerged, the speed was reduced to 6.5 knots. The deepest they could safely dive was 330 feet.

The crew, which numbered from 140 to 220 sailors per sub, had the extravagant luxury of a walk-in freezer for storing their on-board rations. Still, potable water was limited to mealtime servings only, and latrine service was less accommodating, with just one head per boat available.

The I-400s were well armed. From their eight forward torpedoes tubes, 20 Type-95 torpedoes could be fired. On deck, three triple-barrel 25mm guns and one 25mm single-barrel gun were mounted. An even heavier guna 140mm/5.5-incherwas also part of the armament.

Another unique application was a slide. Once ordered to clear the deck for a dive, sailors rushed the hatch of the conning tower. Jumping inside, they slid down a funnel onto a cushioned landing spot, thus cutting the time it took to clear the deck by more than half that of regular subs.

In appearance there was an oddity in the I-400s structure. From the bows view, the conning tower jutted off-center to the right. This was done to facilitate the 115-foot-long, 12-foot-wide, watertight aircraft hangar that housed the three attack floatplanes specially built by Aichi Aircraft Company of Nagoya just for the I-400 Series subs. Adjoining the hangar was an 80-foot-long pneumatic catapult.

In 1942 the Aichi company was put to work designing these floatplanes that became known as the M6A1 Seiran Mountain Haze. Each plane required a crew of twoa pilot and a gunner. The gunner faced rearward in the back seat and manned a 12.7mm Type-2 machine gun.

To save room in the subs hangars, the planes wings and tail had to be engineered to fold in along the fuselage. Instead of wheels, the Seirans came with two detachable floats. The bomb load came in varied combinationstwo 551-pound bombs, one 1,764-pound bomb, or one 1,874-pound bomb. Once in flight, the Seiran could extend over 642 nautical miles/739 standard miles.

To expedite launch preparation, portions of the planes exteriors were coated with fluorescent paint, thus allowing the four-man teams readying the planes for flight to work in a minimum amount of light. Once the subs surfaced, a four-man deck crew could launch all three planes within 45 minutes. (After numerous delays, by July 1945, only 28 Seirans had come off the production line16 short of the intended goal.)

The sole reason for the planes existence: to attack mainland America. All that was needed now was a target. Various targets were considered: West Coast cities and even Washington, D.C., were discussed. The idea of attacking the Panama Canal was also considered.

Before attacks on any of those targets became operational, however, Vice Admiral Jisaburo Ozawa set forth the I-400s first mission. For its short existence, it was known as Operation PX, based on the achievements of Special Unit 731.

Special Unit 731 was a large, permanent-structure complex established in Harbin, Manchuria, that was opened as soon as Japan gained control on the Asian mainland. The facility was disguised as a water-treatment plant, but its real purpose was to research the causes and effects of germ/biological warfare. Their test subjects were thousands of civilian and military prisoners of war. (See the sidebar.)

By the early months of 1945, Japan was hell-bent on bringing some form of warfare upon Americas citizenry. Ozawas plan was to have the four subs of Sub Division OneI-400, I-401, I-13, and I-14sail for Americas West Coast. Once in position they would launch their combined total of 10 Seirans with ceramic canister bombs filled with flea-bearing rodents infected with cholera, typhus, plague, and other pathogens designed to cause widespread illness in the United States. Previous attempts to launch such biological-warfare attacks on China had already been tried and found to be successful. The proposed target was San Diego, California.

Planning for the Panama Canal attack went forward. The birth of that plan came from two individuals with completely contradicting existences. One was a senior Japanese citizen who had once worked on the canal; he freely furnished to Japanese authorities hundreds of pages of personal notes, drafts, blueprints, and so on, that were in his possession.

The second source was less willing. He was an American soldier detained at the infamous Ofuna prisoner-of-war camp near Yokohamaa site that became well known for its excessively brutal, torturous treatment of inmates. This inmate had been stationed at the Panama Canal at the wars outbreak. With that known to his captors, he was tortured and grilled for all he knew of the canals defensive positions. He informed his interrogators that as the war progressed and Japan lost more and more ground, the attentiveness of those guarding the canal had dwindled by the time he left there.

It was easy, then, for the planners to move forward at that point. The ultimate Panama Canal target was its Gatun Locks.

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Genius or Insane? How Imperial Japan Wanted to Build Underwater Aircraft Carriers - The National Interest

Mea culpa. In "Coronavirus Lays Low the Military" (Antiwar.com, Apr. 2), I wrote that "its taken the military several weeks to realize whats going on" with Covid-19, and that "judging from the mixed messages sent by Secretary of Defense Mark Esper, it still hasnt figured it all out."

This was way too kind since it implies that Esper was honestly wrestling with the problem when, as is now clear, hes not honestly wrestling with anything at all. Along with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and National Security Adviser Robert C. OBrien, rather, hes part of a spooky cabal that is in full-scale denial about Covid-19 and, whats worse, sees it as an opportunity to take out longtime foes. In recent weeks, these mini-Dr. Strangeloves have:

In the 1340s, Mongols used catapults to hurl diseased cadavers into the besieged Crimean city of Caffa, now known as Feodosia, in order to spread bubonic plague. Today, the US blocks money for ventilators and prevents the import of lifesaving pharmaceuticals in order to spread Covid-19.

Strangelovian as all this is, we now have the curious example of an attack dog in human form named Thomas Modly, who has just gotten the ax for calling an aircraft-carrier skipper "stupid" and "nave" for trying to safeguard the health of his crew. A former Pentagon business consultant who was named acting Navy secretary last November, Modley is the best example in years of why the scariest people among us are not the toughest but the most cowardly. A relentless self-promoter, he was reportedly terrified of suffering the same fate as his predecessor, Richard V. Spencer, who wound up on the sidewalk after daring to oppose Trumps decision to let accused Navy SEAL murderer Eddie Gallagher off with a slap on the wrist. So when it came to a skipper who didnt mind sticking his neck out in behalf of his crew, Modly figured that the only way to deal with him was to go after him the way Trump would, only worse.

So he pilloried Brett Crozier, captain of the USS Theodore Roosevelt, as "too naive or too stupid to be the commanding officer of a ship like this" because he didnt realize that a four-page memo he wrote calling for quarantining the crew to combat a corona outbreak would likely be leaked. He called him disloyal for blabbing to the press, even though theres no evidence that Crozier sought to do so. And he described him as self-promoting even though theres zero evidence of that as well.

"I understand you love the guy," Modly acknowledged in the course of an unhinged fifteen-minute rant over the TR intercom on Monday. "Its good that you love him." But Crozier was guilty of a "betrayal" because he allowed his concerns to be "put it in the publics forum, and its now become a big controversy in Washington, DC, and across the country about a martyr CO [i.e. commanding officer] who wasnt getting the help he needed."

"I expect you never to do that to your shipmates either," he went on, "the ones on the shore right now who told me that when Captain Croziers email made it to the San Francisco Chronicle after working fifteen-hour days, they were demoralized because they knew what they had been doing for you guys since the 25th of March to get you guys what you need."

So thousands of sailors shown cheering Crozier in videos that quickly went viral werent cheering him at all, you see. All that lusty applause aside, they were actually complaining that that he was throwing them overboard and that real heroes like Modly werent getting the thanks they deserved.

"If I could offer you a glimpse of the level of hatred and pure evil that has been thrown my way, my familys way, over this decision [to fire Crozier]," the Navy secretary said, "I would. But it doesnt matter. Its not about me."

No, of course not, even though Modly or "Moldy," as hes known onboard the TR was really trying to save the day.

This is pure stomach-turning nonsense, of course, which is why Modly deserved the Order of the Boot more than anyone in recent history. But before we allow this creep to slink off into the sunset, we should give his Apr. 6 comments a bit more attention because of what they say about the uber-hawks who now dominate foreign policy.

One is that they dont just regard the press as biased, but as an outright hostile force. As Modly put it: "the media has an agenda. And the agenda that they have depends on which side of the political aisle they sit. And Im sorry thats the way the country is now, but its the truth. And so they use it to divide us. They use it to embarrass the Navy. They use it to embarrass you."

Which suggests what? That the press is the enemy, that the military and the media are on opposite sides of the battlefield, and that one will have to suppress the other if a real emergency arises, like the one were in now?

A second is that anti-Chinese rhetoric has reached levels that are truly dangerous. "One of the things about his [Croziers] email that bothered me the most was saying that we are not at war," Modly declared. "Well, were not technically at war. But let me tell you something. The only reason we are dealing with this right now is because a big authoritarian regime called China was not forthcoming about what was happening with this virus. And they put the world at risk to protect themselves and to protect their reputations."

So were not at war, except that Chinas behavior is so derelict that we might as well be. A seemingly passing comment about hypersonic missiles suggest that Pentagon fears about growing Chinese military prowess is not the least bit theoretical or abstract. "I tell you something," Modly said at one point, "if this ship was in combat and there were hypersonic missiles coming at it, youd be pretty fucking scared too." It was a Freudian slip that suggests that top brass is indeed "pretty fucking scared" about the threat that such weapons pose, especially to Americas eleven aircraft carriers, which are now as obsolete as a World War I-era dreadnought.

Finally, theres the suggestion that merely by disclosing a problem, Crozier "compromised critical information about your status intentionally to draw greater attention to your situation."

This is pure authoritarianism. Its the belief that merely airing a problem is disloyal because it provides the enemy with information he shouldnt have. "Loose lips sink ships" may be warranted in wartime. But thats not the case now, as Crozier pointed out in his Mar. 30 memo, and any suggestion to the contrary represents an effort to impose strict martial values in a time of peace.

This should be reason to pour yourself another scotch. Modly deserves to get the ax since hes a danger not only to the crew of the Teddy Roosevelt but to US naval personnel in general. But Pompeo, Esper, and other latter-day advocates of germ warfare are threats to the world at large and should not only be canned, but forced to stand before an international tribunal for crimes against humanity. As for Trump, not only has he thoroughly blown the anti-corona effort here in the US, but hes now pushing the same misbegotten policies on other countries as well. The world has a problem, and its not Covid-19. Its the United States.

Daniel Lazare is the author of The Frozen Republic: How the Constitution Is Paralyzing Democracy (Harcourt Brace, 1996) and other books about American politics. He writes a weekly column for Antiwar.com. He has written for a wide variety of publications from The Nation to Le Monde Diplomatique and blogs about the Constitution and related matters at Daniellazare.com.

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Mad Man Modly: The Secretary of the Navy Gets the Boot - Antiwar.com