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Monthly Archives: April 2017
How many American atheists are there really? – Vox
Posted: April 13, 2017 at 11:34 pm
Heres a simple question: How many Americans dont believe in God?
Pew and Gallup two of the most reputable polling firms in America both come to a similar figure. About 10 percent of Americans say they do not believe in God, and this figure has been slowly creeping up over the decades.
But maybe this isnt the whole story. University of Kentucky psychologists Will Gervais and Maxine Najle have long suspected that a lot of atheists arent showing up in these polls. The reason: Even in our increasingly secular society, theres still a lot of stigma around not believing in God. So when a stranger conducting a poll calls and asks the question, it may be uncomfortable for many to answer truthfully.
Gervais and Najle recently conducted a new analysis on the prevalence of atheists in America. And they conclude the number of people who do not believe in God may be even double that counted by these polling firms.
Theres a lot of atheists in the closet, Gervais says. And ... if they knew there are lots of people just like them out there, that could potentially promote more tolerance.
Currently, if youre seeking data to answer the question, How many Americans do not believe in God? you have two main sources.
First is the Pew Research Center. Most recently, Pew found that around 3 percent of Americans say they are atheists. It also found that a larger group around 9 percent say they do not believe in God or a universal spirit. (Which goes to show that you may not believe in God but could still be uncomfortable calling yourself an atheist because that term implies a strong personal identity and an outright rejection of religious rituals.) Gallup also regularly asks the question point blank Do you believe in God? The last time it asked, in 2016, 10 percent of respondents said no.
Gervaiss experience studying the stigma around atheism the world over made him suspect these numbers are wrong.
Study after study has shown that most people (even other atheists) believe atheists are less moral. Well give participants a little vignette, a story about someone doing something immoral, and probe their intuition about who they think the perpetrator was, Gervais says. And time and time again, people intuitively assume whoever is out there doing immoral stuff doesnt believe in God.
So it would make sense that when Pew or Gallup calls, people who dont believe in God may be reluctant to say so. We shouldnt expect people to give a stranger over the phone an honest answer to that question, Gervais says.
So recently, Gervais and Najle designed a test to find these closet atheists. Their results are currently pending publication in the journal Social Psychological and Personality Science (read the preprint of their paper here).
So if you cant ask people outright whether theyre atheist and get an honest response, how do you go about finding them?
Gervais and Najle set up a very subtle test. They sent a nationally representative poll to 2,000 Americans, who were randomly assigned to two conditions.
The first condition asked participants to read through a bunch of statements like, I am a vegetarian, I own a dog, and, I have a dishwasher in my kitchen.
All the participants had to do was simply write down the number of statements that were true for them.
The value of this method is that participants dont have to directly say, I am a vegetarian, or, Im a dog owner they only have to acknowledge the number of statements that apply to them. That alone should zero out any embarrassment or hesitance to admit to a particular item.
Thats important because the other 1,000 or so participants saw the exact same list but with one statement added: I believe in God.
By comparing the responses between the two groups, Gervais and Najle could then estimate how many people dont believe in God. (Because both groups of 1,000 poll takers should, in theory, have the same number of vegetarians, dog owners, and so on in each group, any increases in the number of agreed-to statements from the first group to the second should be reflective of the number of people who dont believe in God.)
One thing is clear from the results: Much more than 10 or 11 percent of the country (as assessed in Gallup and Pew polling) does not believe in God. We can say with a 99 percent probability that its higher than [11 percent], said Gervais.
His best estimate: Around 26 percent of Americans dont believe in God. According to our samples, about 1 in 3 atheists in our country don't feel comfortable disclosing their lack of belief, Najle explains in an email.
Gervais admits this method isnt perfect, and yields an answer with a wide margin of error. (On the other end of the margin of error, around 35 percent of Americans dont believe in God.) But the most fundamental question he and Najle are asking here is do polling firms like Gallup and Pew undercount atheists? And it seems the answer is yes.
Gervais and Najle also concurrently replicated the study with a second sample of 2,000 participants, and got similar results. (In this second sample, they framed the atheism question in the negative I do not believe in God which yielded a slightly lower number of atheists. This could be because people are a bit more anxious to respond to such a definite phrase as, No, I do not believe in God.)
I ran Gervais and Najles conclusion by Greg Smith, who directs Pews polling efforts on religion. Hes not yet ready to buy it.
I would be very reluctant to conclude that phone surveys like ours are underestimating the share the public who are atheists to that kind of magnitude, he says.
For one, Smith says, Pew has asked questions on religion both on the phone and online and didnt see much of a difference. Youd expect if people were unwilling to say that theyre atheists over the phone to a stranger, theyd be slightly more likely to input it into a computer. (Though Pews online questioning still has participants directly answer the question, instead of asking people to merely list the numbers of items they agree with. Even online, people might be uneasy answering the question.)
Also, Smith points out a weird quirk in Gervaiss data.
In one of the trials, instead of adding the I dont believe in God measure to the list, the survey added a nonsense phrase: I do not believe that 2 + 2 is less than 13. And 34 percent of their participants agreed. Bizarre indeed. The researchers explanation? It may reflect any combination of genuine innumeracy [lack of math skills], incomprehension of an oddly phrased item, participant inattentiveness or jesting, sampling error, or a genuine flaw in the ... technique, Gervais and Najle write in the paper.
But they still think their measure is valid. When they limited the sample to people who were self-professed atheists (as measured in a separate question), 100 percent said they didnt believe in God, which is correct. It is unlikely that a genuinely invalid method would track self-reported atheism this precisely, they write.
Still, more research is needed. In time, we'll hopefully be able to refine our methods and find other indirect measurement techniques, Gervais says. (Overall, kudos to Gervais and Najle for being forthright about their curious finding. In the past, psychologists have had incentives to avoid printing this type of contradictory finding in their papers.)
Theres something else to consider here: Our experience with religion cant really be boiled down to one question Do you believe in God?
Many of us have a complicated relationship with religion. There are plenty of people celebrating Easter and Passover this week not because they have devout faith, but because its a cultural tradition they cherish and identify with.
Pew regularly finds data that supports this multifaceted view. When people in their surveys say, I believe in God, Pew will often ask a follow-up question: How certain are you? And they find that not everyone is so sure.
About a quarter of the US population say they believe in God but are less than absolutely certain of it, Smith says.
The lesson: Belief in God doesnt exist as a binary. Not everyone is certain about what they feel; many people have shades of gray. There are gradations of belief, Smith says. Its not that its wrong to ask yes or no, but its not the whole story.
And Gervais admits: This measure doesnt capture the complex and contradictory feelings many people have about religion. (And Najle adds that these data are limited to the U.S. and should not be generalized beyond that.)
But in the data, they also find some small evidence that the stigma around atheism is changing. When they break the numbers down by demographics, they find that baby boomer and millennials report similar levels of disbelief (even though traditional polling shows baby boomers are more likely to believe in god). This could be because younger people feel less anxious about their atheism.
It could be underlying belief levels havent changed, Gervais says, comparing the generations, but norms have.
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How many American atheists are there really? - Vox
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Atheism Finally Front and Center in State Capitol, Across Iowa – DesMoinesRegister.com
Posted: at 11:34 pm
Justin Scott, Iowa View contributor Published 4:32 p.m. CT April 11, 2017 | Updated 9:42 a.m. CT April 12, 2017
Justin Scott(Photo: Special to the Register)
After last week, I hope its a little easier to be an atheist in Iowa.
On April 5, I proudly stood in the Iowa State Capitol and delivered what is believed to be the first ever atheist prayer (a.k.a. secular invocation) in the peoples house.Atheism was finally given the same platform and respect that had been extended to other religions and worldviews for years to start off a session of the Iowa Legislature.
The historic invocation garnered headlines across Iowa putting the words atheism and atheist front and center for many lawmakers and communities across Iowa. It also put our state government on notice that not all Iowans are Christians or even religious and that we deserve the same access to our Statehouse.
While Im not so naive to believe that achieving an equal voice at the Statehouse and the subsequent attention it gained for atheism in and of itself will end bullying, bigotry and discrimination against atheists in Iowa, it is my belief yes, atheists believe in some things, just not in the supernatural sense that Iowans will begin to better understand that atheists are an essential part of the Iowa experience.
Atheists are presidents of companies, theyre doctors and surgeons, they may even be your childs public school teacher. Heck, they very well could be the pastor of your church and just havent admitted to themselves and their congregation that they simply no longer believe what it is that they having made a career preaching about.
Dont just take my word for it. Studies by the Pew Research Center continue to show the increase in the number of atheists and people leaving religion, declaring that they are religiously unaffiliated. They also show the rapid decline of religion and religious affiliation. Its been reported that one of out every three millennials considers himself or herselfa religious none. Add that to the number of us known as religious dones that grew up in religion but have studied our way out of it (like me), and you now have one of the largest and most influential groups in the country, one that will likely influence public policy and our society for generations to come.While I fully understand and admit that this doesnt mean that these nones and dones dont necessarily identify as atheists, theyve already taken the first step to embracing atheism (which is simply the rejection of the god belief). Having future generations that exclusively use what I described in my invocation as the holy trinity of science (a phrase that was originally coined back in the 1850s by the infamous Great Agnostic Robert Ingersoll), the human race can finally break free from the chains that have been holding down scientific discovery and advancement for centuries.
Just like the LGBTQ movement of the 1970s, the atheist movement is starting to grow legs and become better organized and galvanized both here in Iowa and across the country. Atheist groups like mine, the Eastern Iowa Atheists, continue to appear and network with other groups, creating a powerful force of godless citizens that are committed to demanding atheist rights while defending the Constitutional Separation of religion and government. (Keep your theocracy off our democracy,thank you very much!)
Theres a tidal wave of atheism and secularism thats been building for years and its about to crash onto the shores of religious America. If youre an atheist or on the fence with your religious beliefs or upbringing, now is the time to own who you are and come catch the wave with other Iowa atheists!
Justin Scott of Denver, Ia.,is founder/director of Eastern Iowa Atheists. Contact:https://www.facebook.com/easterniowaatheists/
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Faith of the faithless: Is atheism just another religion? – New Scientist
Posted: at 11:34 pm
By Graham Lawton
I RECENTLY discovered that I am a member of a downtrodden minority, one of the most mistrusted and discriminated-against in the world. As a white, heterosexual, able-bodied, cis-gender male, this is not something Im used to. But my minority status is undeniable. I am an atheist.
Im not complaining. I live in one of the worlds most secular countries and work for a science magazine, so it hasnt got in the way. But for atheists living in societies with a strong religious tradition, discrimination is a real problem. In the US, atheists have one of the lowest approval ratings of any social group. Non-believers are the only significant minority considered unelectable as president and unelectable turns out to be a pretty low bar.
Even when atheists dont face open hostility or discrimination, we often have to endure put-downs about the sincerity of our (lack of) beliefs. One of the most common is that atheism is just another religion anyway. There is no way to prove or disprove the existence of god, the argument goes, so to deny it is a leap of faith. Ergo, atheism is just like a religion.
This idea turns up all the time, and it is very loaded, says Lois Lee, who directs the Nonreligion and Secularity Research Network at the University of Kent in Canterbury, UK. When people say atheism is just another religion, they normally mean it in a pejorative way. The subtext is clear: atheists are hypocrites.
But this is more than a personal slight. If atheism really is just another religion, its claim to be a superior way to run
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From atheism to Jesus: The Case for Christ hits the big screen – The Christian Institute
Posted: at 11:34 pm
He was an award-winning journalist, driven by facts. He was sure of his atheist beliefs, and was happy to ridicule those who begged to differ.
But when Lee Strobels wife became a Christian, Jesus Christ couldnt be ignored, and Strobels quest to discover more would change his life.
This is the story of The Case for Christ, a book which has sold millions of copies worldwide and has now been made into a film of the same name, showing in the USA and Canada.
Strobel says he hopes the movie, which stays close to his written account, will be helpful in others search for the Truth. As Christians around the world mark the death and resurrection of Jesus at Easter, its message is particularly timely.
The drama follows the Strobel family as they deal with the aftermath of an accident involving their young daughter.
Lee Strobel rejects thinking any deeper about the issue
Her life is saved by a Christian nurse, and Lees wife Leslie is intrigued by her faith. However, Lee rejects thinking any deeper about the issue.
Indeed, he tells their daughter after the accident: We are atheists, adding the family believe in whats real, what we can see and touch.
But Leslie comes to faith through the ministry of a church and that prompts Lee to start an investigation to debunk Christianity.
Using his training as a journalist, he targets the resurrection, and proceeds to question experts in the fields of science, psychology and more.
He is shown speaking to an archaeologist who is now a Roman Catholic priest and has a short conversation about the possible relevance of the shroud of Turin. The film also features numerous historical depictions of Christ.
While he is tracking down evidence, Leslie is praying for her husband often going to Ezekiel 36:26: I will give you a new heart and put a new spirit in you; I will remove from you your heart of stone and give you a heart of flesh.
Gradually, after hearing factual evidence for the death and resurrection of Jesus, Lee begins to question his atheist beliefs.
Among the turning points is a conversation with a physician who roundly rejects the idea that Jesus did not actually die on the cross.
A touching moment then comes when Strobel reveals to his wife that he has been trying to disprove Christianity but now believes that it is true.
He kneels with his wife and prays to the God he previously thought was a myth.
a powerful message of faith, transformation, and grace
Released in America and Canada on 7 April, the Pure Flix-backed film does not currently have a UK release date.
It has been well received by Christian media, and gained some positive coverage in secular sources.
Variety magazine says it will impress even dedicated nonbelievers with its emphasis on the search for evidence.
The Hollywood Reporter is less complimentary, but writes that it is engrossing and will please churchgoers.
Plugged In, a Focus on the Family film-reviewing website, notes that it portrays Lees use of alcohol as an escape, but gives it a positive rating overall.
And The Gospel Coalitions writer Dustin Messer states that while it lacks sufficient acknowledgement of the problem of sin, The Case for Christ delivers from a production standpoint and also offers a powerful message of faith, transformation, and grace.
Leslie and Lee Strobel.
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CMU atheist finds community, support on campus free from faith – Central Michigan Life
Posted: at 11:34 pm
Between being a target for conversion to arguments about how atheism is actually a religion, Molly Sheehan hasheard it all before.
The Iron River freshman is an avowed atheist who has spent most of her life grappling with the concept of a divine creator. As a member of the Dogma Free Society registered student organization at Central Michigan University, shes been able to connect with like-minded students who have hope in humanity without the faith.
Sometimes its inspiring, like when she weighs how humans can be good without the guilt of sin. Other times, the absence of faith can be dreadful, especially when Sheehan thinks about it too hard.
Where a lot of people look toward God, I look toward humanity," she said."I dont want to accept that we dont have free will. I chose this because its what I wanted to do, not because someone is using me as a puppet.
As some students at CMU prepare to celebrate Easter Sunday, or finish Passover next week, Sheehan will be doing what she always does: contemplating life on her own terms.
To me, I dont ever get the sense that life is meaningless, Sheehan said. Its something more like, I better do what I can now. Eventually, I wont be able to do anything anymore, so I better soak it up now.
Her motto is that life without faith forces you to live harder. Its a practice shes developed since she was a young girl growing up with strictly atheist parents. That didnt stop her from trying out religion, even if the attempt was halfhearted at best, Sheehan said.
In a way you could say Im a born again atheist, Sheehan said. When I moved to Iron River from Wisconsin, there were so many people there who tried to shove religion down my throat. I decided to become part of that lifestyle.
I was in a phase of saying I was religious more for the sake of trying to fit in.
That changed as she became more aware of her surroundings. By the time she started taking classes at West Iron County High School, Sheehan noticed she often acted more Christian than her Christian friends. She also couldnt wrap her mind around the concept of morality for the sake of a heavenly reward.
They arent even closely linked, she thought. I dont think morals have anything to do with religion, and I dont believe being a part of a religion is your ticket to heaven.
When she finally came out as what she describes as an agnostic atheist to her friends in high school, many of them didnt understand. Some tried to convert her. The others just went their separate ways.
Sheehan said that was difficult, considering she doesnt know if there is an afterlife, or whether or not shell get there if heaven exists.
You cant be surrounded by people who think its such a big deal, she said.
Thats where the Dogma Free Society, and attending CMU, has helped fill the void. She stays hopeful about her future in broadcasting and cinematic arts. She stays focused on her schoolwork. Her motivation keeps her grounded.
I can get together with people who have more inclusive beliefs here, she said. Thats not something I would have gotten in high school. No ones tried to convert me here, and its actually made me more interested in religion in general to defend my beliefs.
By now, Sheehans stance on atheism must be battle ready, especially when the faithful try to argue that a community of atheists is more like a religion than not.
Having a bunch of atheists hanging out together doesnt equal more religion, she said while shaking her head. Its just a bigger lack of religion. Thats like if someone said, Well, darkness is also light. Its not.
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NASA’s Hubble telescope spots potential water plumes on Europa … – The Verge
Posted: at 11:32 pm
Theres more evidence that plumes of water are erupting from underneath the crust of Jupiters moon Europa. NASA announced the findings today at a press conference, at the same time that the agency also announced new clues that Saturns moon Enceladus may have the right conditions for life.
A possible plume was spotted in 2016 by NASAs Hubble Space Telescope, which is currently in orbit around Earth. At the time, the telescope imaged what looked like a 62-mile-high water plume in ultraviolet light. A similar watery eruption on Europa has been observed before. In 2014, Hubble saw a potential plume that reached 30 miles high, and it was spewing from the same spot as the one in 2016. That means these plumes may be consistently erupting from one region.
NASA isnt saying that these are actual plumes just yet, but if they do exist theyre probably coming from the vast saltwater ocean that is thought to lurk underneath Europas surface. These plumes also seem to be coming from a particularly warm region on the moon, where there are cracks in the icy crust. Its possible that the water being vented from the sea floor underneath this spot is warming the crust. Or maybe the plume materials are falling back to the surface, changing the crust in such a way so that it stays warm.
Either way, this site on Europa could serve as a great place to visit, and NASA is currently making a spacecraft to do just that. The Europa Clipper mission, which is supposed to launch in the 2020s, involves sending a vehicle to the ocean moon that will periodically fly by the world and collect crucial data. Europa Clipper will also be equipped with an ultraviolet imager like Hubble, but the images it takes will be thousands of times closer. And more refined instruments will be able to figure out what the particles surrounding Europa are made of.
If there are plumes on Europa, as we now strongly suspect, with the Europa Clipper we will be ready for them, Jim Green, NASAs director of planetary science, said in a statement.
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Hubble Telescope takes stunning images of white auroras on Uranus – Express.co.uk
Posted: at 11:32 pm
GETTY
Images taken from the NASA and European Space Agency (ESA) spacecrafts of Voyager2 and the Hubble Space Telescope show beautiful white auroras hovering over Uranus.
Auroras occur on the chillingly blue seventh planet farthest from the sun in the sam fashion as they do here on Earth.
Auroras here and on Uranus form when atmospheric molecules and energetic particles collide to create light.
A statement from the ESA and NASA adds: They become caught in powerful magnetic fields and are channeled into the upper atmosphere, where their interactions with gas particles, such as oxygen or nitrogen, set off spectacular bursts of light.
ESA/Hubble & NASA, L. Lamy/Observatoire de Paris
However, auroras on Earth typically stick to regions near to the north and south poles.
But as the statement explains: By watching the auroras over time, they collected the first direct evidence that these powerful shimmering regions rotate with the planet.
GETTY
Uranus sits about 19 times farther from the Sun that Earth does and is the third larges planet in the solar system behind Saturn and Jupiter.
Auroras were also spotted on Jupiter, aptly named the King of the Solar System due to it being the far biggest planet in our galactic neighbourhood, last year but the auroras there are unique.
GETTY
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Aurora lights reflect in lagoon, Jokulsarlon, Iceland
On Jupiter the rapid rotating magnetic field collides with energetic particles from both solar winds blasting against the planet at a million miles per hour and particles released from volcanic eruptions on one of its moons, Io.
However, it is unclear how the aurora on Jupiter is affected by solar flares, which Nasa is hoping to shed light on through its historic Juno mission.
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Trump’s Previous View of NATO Is Now Obsolete – New York Times
Posted: at 11:32 pm
New York Times | Trump's Previous View of NATO Is Now Obsolete New York Times WASHINGTON As a candidate, President Trump disparaged NATO as a musty relic of old thinking, an alliance focused on long-gone adversaries rather than new-era threats, a burden that drained American resources on behalf of ungrateful partners who ... Montenegro has the US greenlight to join NATO - now what? NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg Encourages Debate Between Members What is Nato? Why did Donald Trump say Nato is 'no longer obsolete'? |
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Trump's Previous View of NATO Is Now Obsolete - New York Times
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If Trump really wants to improve relations with Russia, he should persuade NATO to stop expanding – Los Angeles Times
Posted: at 11:32 pm
President Trumps relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin may turn out to be too close for comfort, but Trumps instincts about U.S.-Russia ties are at least partly right. The U.S. simply cant afford poor relations with the planets other nuclear superpower.
Security in Syria depends on it, for one. The even bigger issue, however, is security in Europe, where tensions between Russia and NATO have been acute for three years.
Some analysts maintain that Putin cultivates an adversarial relationship with the outside world to strengthen his popularity at home and thus his hold on power, and also to provide him with an excuse to suppress dissent. This may be true, but he also appears to bear a genuine grudge against the United States for its post-Cold War assertiveness near Russian territory. For two decades, and especially over the last 10 years, Putin and many other Russian officials have complained that NATO's eastward march threatens Russias security.
Granted, NATO has gone out of its way to consult and work with Russia since the Cold War ended. It has also avoided putting major combat forces in new member states that are located near Russias borders.
Still, one can understand why Russians would find it overbearing and triumphalist that NATO moved 1,000 miles east while taking in a dozen new members, most of which were previously part of the Warsaw Pact or the Soviet Union. The U.S. also supported democratic forces that gave rise to revolutions in Ukraine, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan, and, as Moscow sees it, we attacked other countries, including Serbia, Iraq and Libya, without a legal basis for doing so and often with poor results. Meanwhile, NATO expansion continues. Last month, the U.S. Senate ratified the Balkan nation of Montenegros accession to the alliance, and Trump on Tuesday signed off on the move.
In Putin's eyes, we are an out-of-control hyper-power that must be opposed. His view is warped, but it appears to be sincere.
The whole situation is counterproductive, and nowhere more so than in Ukraine and Georgia. President George W. Bush persuaded NATO to publicly offer eventual membership to the two countries both former Soviet republics, both adjacent to Russia but there was no timetable established and no interim guarantee of security in the meantime. They are thus fully exposed to Russian aggression. Exacerbating matters, NATO has a longstanding policy of not accepting new members until they resolve any territorial disputes with neighbors. Though a sensible idea in the abstract, the policy gives Putin an incentive to stoke trouble with Ukraine and Georgia, because any ongoing disputes invalidate their near-term eligibility for NATO membership.
Trump should at least try to deescalate tensions. He could do so with a broad agreement between NATO states, Moscow and the neutral countries of Europe. In such an agreement, NATO could vow not to expand further. In return, Russia would commit to leave the neutral countries alone, withdraw military forces from their territories, allow them to join whatever diplomatic and economic groups they want (including the European Union), and stop arming and abetting separatists in places such as the Donbas region of Ukraine and northern Georgia. Once Putin met these conditions, the U.S. could lift its sanctions against Russia.
Trumps two predecessors also wanted to improve U.S.-Russia relations, of course. Bush tried until disputes over Iraq and NATO soured the atmosphere; Russia then invaded Georgia in the summer of 2008. President Obama talked of a reset with Moscow before his hopes were dashed by Russia's aggression against Ukraine and Syria, and by Putin's suppression of dissent and democracy at home.
Putin continues to make diplomacy difficult. He is now adamantly opposing Trumps limited and careful reprisal against the gruesome use of chemical weapons by the Syrian regime. And as investigations heat up into Russian interference in the U.S. presidential election, much of Trump's top national security team is reverting to anti-Russia rhetoric.
If we continue down this path, a U.S.-Russia war could even erupt over a contested area in Europe. To reduce the risk, we need to develop an alternative to further expansion of NATO, one that promotes the security and prosperity of the neutral countries in Eastern Europe.
Michael E. OHanlon is a senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution.
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If Trump really wants to improve relations with Russia, he should persuade NATO to stop expanding - Los Angeles Times
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NATO, the UN and democracy: A trio for Trump – The Hill (blog)
Posted: at 11:32 pm
Its been a busy week for President Trump. In less than seven days, he has learned that Russia is not our ally and that far from being obsolete, NATO is instead a great alliance and the bulwark of international peace and stability as he declared to NATOs Secretary General during a meeting at the White House on April 12.
That offers hope. To really reduce innocent deaths and violence, Trump could add United Nations peacekeeping, and democracy support to his tutorial. Meanwhile, like a clock stuck on twelve, Trump was occasionally if unwittingly correct about the need for NATO reform.
Yet, NATO was fundamentally designed for an older style of warfare in which the Russians came barreling through the Fulda gap in tanks. NATO is simply not designed for todays murky form of proxy warfare.
Prepositioning weapons in Eastern Europe may offer some deterrent, but weaponry is less decisive than willpower and more creative methods of intervention.
Wars today are likely to mimic the Ukraine where Russian troops mingle with fifth-column separatists, or Syria, where Russian weapons and air support assist Assads troops and murkier forces from Iran and Hezbollah.
A united NATO may deter such incursions, but the Wests admonishment of Georgias President for egging Russia into war in 2008, the failure of Britain and the U.S. to uphold a red line in Syria in 2013, and the weak pushback on Russias seizure of the Crimea the following year have encouraged Russia to continue its strategy.
To do its primary job, NATO must recalibrate, creating tripwires and treaties that serve as deterrents to a new form of warfare that is likely to continue.
Meanwhile, war is no longer the great killer it once was. Battle deaths used to be in the millions, but todays shadowy wars are far less deadly. On average, wars between states kill only about 3,000 people a year today, and despite an uptick in civil war deaths thanks to Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan, civil wars now kill only about 90,000 people a year.
Meanwhile, Mexicos drug cartels killed the same number of people as the violence in Iraq in 2015. More Nigerians and Indians died violently that year than Syrians, and more people died violent deaths in Brazil than in Iraq and Syria combined. The devastation of war is horrific, but 83 percent of violent deaths today occur outside of conflict zones.
From 2010 to 2015, three kinds of violence were responsible for the deaths of more than four times as many individuals as battle deaths from war: Homicide often caused by organized crime; violence among organized groups of citizens, such as paramilitaries and gangs; and violence from terrorists and states killing their own citizens. And the people killed were more likely to be children and ordinary people, rather than professional soldiers or self-proclaimed rebels.
If Trump is truly concerned about the violent, unwarranted deaths of innocent children and it seems he is there is more he can do.
The much-maligned United Nations actually has a strong track record of keeping peace. A RAND study analyzing U.S. and UN missions from the 1960s through 2005 found that two-thirds of those UN peacekeeping missions were successful. They are also cheap: In 2005, the UNs 17 peacekeeping operations, involving 70,000 troops, cost less than one month of U.S. led operations in Iraq. Despite its flaws, peacekeeping contributed to the fact that since the early 1990s, civil wars have been cut in half and from 1993 to 2003, deaths in civil wars reduced by fivefold.
Some of the greatest problems with peacekeeping stem from the Security Councils imposed rules of engagement and the failure of the great powers to provide speedy money for troops. Some of the worlds best conflict scholars estimate that if the peacekeeping budget was increased to $800 million and stronger rules of engagement were mandated, major armed conflict might be halved. The deal-maker-in-chief could get better security for less cost by really focusing on reforming and strengthening the United Nations, building on the work of his predecessor.
Finally, state killings, terrorism and even homicide are all linked by a single thread: rotten governments that extract most of a countrys wealth, favor certain groups of citizens, and leave most of society to fend for themselves.
U.S. democracy assistance has a track record of helping people in such countries help themselves. Thats why Russia hates it and has been funding lobbying efforts in the U.S. to curb the paltry money the U.S. spends helping civil societies. Yet instead of doubling down, the Trump Administration and some Senators are letting Russia divide us internally.
Lifeless infants cradled in their fathers arms and grey-faced toddlers gassed to death should drive America and its allies closer together to fight the deaths of innocents. Seizing the moment to reform NATO and the UN and deepen democracy support could place Trump in the surprising role of statesman.
Rachel Kleinfeld has a doctor of philosophy and master of philosophy fromSt. Antony's College, Oxford and aB.A. from Yale University. She is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Her forthcoming boo is on how countries escape immense violence. You can find her onTwitter: @RachelKleinfeld.
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