Daily Archives: April 14, 2017

The End of Transition: Shifting Focus Takes Place at USC

LOS ANGELES, Calif.To mark a quarter century of transition beginning with the Soviet collapse in 1991, the University of Southern California (USC) Institute of Armenian Studies held a two-day conference on April 9-10. Entitled The End of Transition: Shifting Focus, the Institute hosted scholars and specialists from across the globe as they discussed Armenias trajectory since it established independence in 1991.

(L to R) Professor Robert English, Amberin Zaman, Vartan Oskanian, and Dr. Hans Gutbrod

Salpi Ghazarian, the director of the Institute, kicked off the conference on April 9, with an introduction and welcome.

We dont see where the post-Soviet space is heading, she said. The people who care are the people of Armenia and the people of the Caucasus. They gave up the predictability and stability that were the hallmarks of the Soviet Union. And they did that in exchange for what? Thats what we want to know and frankly, thats what were going to be asking these next two days.

Salpi Ghazarian

The two-day Los Angeles conference is the first leg of what is planned as a two-city event. The conference will continue in Yerevan on May 23-24, with additional scholars and practitioners looking back over a quarter century, and looking forward to answer the question Now What? This question was especially appropriate as the April 9 conference came just a week after Armenias parliamentary election.

The first day of the conference was moderated by Dr. Robert English, Deputy Director of the USC School of International Relations.

Professor English introduced the first speaker, Jack Matlock, the last U.S. ambassador to the USSR. Matlock served between 1987 and 1991. Matlock will be present at the Yerevan conference as well. In Los Angeles, he spoke by video.

Matlock is certainly one of Americas most distinguished diplomats, in the tradition that stretches from Benjamin Franklin to George Kennan, English said. He not only represented his country with extraordinary skill, but played a vital personal role in the world-changing transformation that was the Cold Wars end.

Ambassador Matlock and English discussed the U.S. Embassys perspective on the various conflicts that emerged in the South Caucuses toward the late 1980s, tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Karabagh, and turmoil in Georgia.

I cant say there was a U.S. policy because basically these were things that the Soviet Union had to deal with, Matlock said. Our own foreign policy could only go so far, but we did try to explain to Washington what the problems were.

Both Armenian and Azerbaijani Communist Party First Secretaries had conveyed their growing concerns to the ambassador.

They frankly were in despair, Matlock said. Both of them said, We cant solve this.

With rising pressure from their home countries, the secretaries relied on Moscow to pose a solution; however, Matlock stated that Mikhail Gorbachev, the General Secretary of the Soviet Union at the time, extended very little effort toward resolving the issue.

Gorbachev was not willing to take a more active role, he said. It was against his principle of not applying force to these things.

While Azerbaijanis and Armenians engaged in clashes, Georgia was experiencing what President George Bush called suicidal nationalism, which Matlock said referenced Georgias frictions with South Ossetia.

Matlock noted that, as long as Russia continues to sense growing hostility from Baku, and Russian attitudes toward ethnic Azerbaijanis remain negative, it will lean toward favoring Armenia; however, his assessment also concluded that Russia would encourage inter-fighting between the two countries, in addition to Georgia, if it felt all three states were exhibiting anti-Russian sentiments.

Any rational Russian leader would like to have close relations with all three, he said.

Following Matlock, English introduced Amberin Zaman, a journalist formerly with the Economist, now with Al-Monitor, and analyst with the Woodrow Wilson Center, to speak about regional relations, with a focus on Turkey. Zaman summarized relations during the transitional period between Turkey and Armenia, between Turkey and Russia, and with the West.

Amberin Zaman

In the wake of the U.S. missile strike on Syria, Zaman concluded that Russias and Turkeys opposing interests in Syria, with the latter openly pushing for regime change and the former continuing to back Assads government, would impact Armenia. Due to the fluctuating relations between the two countries, Armenias own potential for improved relations with Turkey may be adversely effected to the Turkey-Russia standoff.

Following Zaman, former Foreign Minister of Armenia, Vartan Oskanian, discussed Armenias foreign policy choices, the current situation in the Caucasus, and the early years of Armenias independence.

Vartan Oskanian

The Caucasus is among the worlds most divided and incoherent regions, Oskanian said. Its constituent republics Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia basically failed to learn from similarly grouped countries, like the Benelux countries or the Baltic states, which, despite their historical grievances and political differences, came together and worked together to achieve their common goals of stability, prosperity, and democracy.

According to Oskanian, such a vision was not impossible when the three Caucasus countries became independent, noting that when the Russian Empire collapsed during World War I, the three became part of a short-lived confederation before going their separate ways and being absorbed into the Soviet Union. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, similar ideas of confederation emerged in the region, though such outcomes were never realized.

What divides these three countries in the Caucasus is not religion, culture, history or tradition, Oskanian said. It is the differing visions, prospects, convictions and aspirations that each one of these countries espouses and pursues.

Comparing the unstable political systems and oligarchic economies to countries in the North Africa region, Oskanian said Georgia is the most democratic among the three nations. Georgians ability to change governments twice following independence empowered the populace, while Armenians in comparison, despite several attempts, were unable to bring change. In Azerbaijan, which remains dynastic, no such attempts have even been made.

The contrasting directions in democracy, institutions and political processes have led to what Oskanian called dangerously divisive and different foreign policy approaches. For example, Georgia signed with the European Union, suggesting serious future institutional changes to meet EU standards, while Armenia joined the Russian-led Eurasian Union. Azerbaijan is part of neither.

MIT Professor Daron Aemoglu followed up with a discussion entitled Why (Some) Nations Fail, focusing on obstacles to economic development. Aemoglus assessment stipulated that the Armenian Diaspora served as a bridge for Armenia and the Western World, passing along ideas for democratic models and market-driven economies. However, Aemoglu said that this bridge ultimately did not work, citing complex factors.

At a very high level, I think the biggest issue is that, in the transition economies where the former communist elites were totally cast aside, transition worked better, he said. In places like Russia, Uzbekistan or Kazakhstan, where the communist elites control the process, things work really badly. In Armenia, I think unfortunately we are much closer to the second type of transition and we have paid the price.

Sundays final speaker was Dr. Hans Gutbrod, director of Transparify, a policy research and advocacy organization based in Tbilisi, Georgia.

Dr. Hans Gutbrod

Gutbrods presentation focused on the transition away from a transition paradigm and what that means for activism and people who want to change things. Gutbrod said he hopes to appeal to different audiences: those with academic interests, but also activists and youth who want to contribute.

During his time running the Caucasus Research Resource Centers in Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan, he observed the different transitional periods of the three nations in the post-Soviet space. While Georgia experienced some successful governmental change, Armenia remained stagnant post independence and Azerbaijan transgressed despite abundant economic resources.

While some former Soviet states have undergone successful democratic, infrastructural and economic transitions, the countries of the South Caucasus have had more difficulty, particularly in terms of civil society. The concept of a content middle class has also failed to materialize successfully. In Armenia, surveys show that 28 to 30 percent of citizens aged 18 or above said they would leave the country and never go back.

Rather than having a content middle class citizen, we have people that dream of going abroad and that are apathetic about the extent to which they can change, and all of this at this point risks getting worse, Gutbrod said.

The Sunday discussions concluded with a conversation among English, Zaman, Oskanian, and Gutbrod.

The conference continued on April 10.

The first panelon Foreign Policy and Regional Integrationwas chaired by Professor English. Dr. Laurence Broers from the Royal Institute of International Affairs in the United Kingdom started the panel off by discussing the period of violence that erupted in 1998 and ended in a ceasefire between Azerbaijan and Armenia in 1994. He specifically honed in on the communal violence that occurred along ethnic lines among Armenians and Azerbaijanis. In the case of anti-Azerbaijani violence in Armenia, I argue that a very different emotional disposition was at play with a deep cultural schema prescribing innate historically framed roles to difference groups providing an explanation. That cultural schema was genocide. The pogrom in Sumgait and all subsequent outbreaks of anti-Armenian violence in Azerbaijan and even local incidents in Armenia such as the outbreak of a disease were merged into a unified narrative of serial genocide, explained Broers in trying to understand how the conflict and perceptions of the conflict were transformed in the early years.

(L to R) Dr. Nona Shahnazarian, Professor Arman Grigoryan, and Professor Anna Ohanyan

The Karabagh topic continued in a presentation by Emil Sanamyan, an independent analyst who specializes in the Karabagh conflict, and edits Focus on Karabagh on the USC Institute of Armenian Studies website. Sanamyans talk was called Who is Fighting and Who is Dying in Karabagh. He pointed to a map and explained: This is an interesting map that somebody from Azerbaijan prepared. It shows the birth places of soldiers killed in the April 2016 War. You see that it is fairly spread out, one area that is sort of missing is Baku. There were no casualties from the city of Baku. And Baku represents roughly one-fourth of Azerbaijans population. There were some kids, mostly conscripts, from villages around Baku but not from Baku itself. On the Armenian side, the situation is slightly more egalitarian. Yerevan represents a substantial number of casualties, both amongst the regular army and the volunteers but a majority are still from rural areas; so this is a socio-economic breakdown of casualties.

Gregory Aftandlian addressed American foreign policys diminishing interest in Armenia. He explained that foreign policy is based on ideas and interests. The idea of democracy and liberalization is important to the US, but not being followed by Armenia; and the US oil interests provide reason for it to veer towards Azerbaijan. Since the early 1990s, US government aid to Armenia is about 2 billion dollars overall. This has been on a downward slope. Today assistance level is about $11 or $12 million while in some years it was something like $120 million.

Dr. Phil Gamaghelyan traced the evolution of thinking and feeling among groups of Armenian and Turkish students living in the US and interacting over periods of time to come to understand the others sense of history. This effort at people-to-people interaction to begin to come to a reciprocal understanding of each others perceptions of history resulted in a variety of new questions about each sides own understanding of its own history.

(L to R) Professor Robert English, Dr. Laurence Broers, Emil Sanamyan, Gregory Aftandilian, and Dr. Hrant Kostanyan

Dr. Hrant Kostanyan, with the Centre for European Policy Studies spoke about the missed opportunities for European Union Armenian rapprochement during the transition years. He concluded that the EU had been unable to fulfill Armenias serious security needs, while Armenias elites and institutions were unable or unwilling to adapt to (or benefit from) the EUs stringent safety and quality standards for trade. This, despite the fact that the EU is Armenias largest trading partner.

In between discussions of foreign policy and internal governance, the conference audience enjoyed a presentation by Eric Nazarian, a filmmaker, and a Fellow of the USC Institute of Armenian Studies. Nazarian provided a quick overview of Armenian cinema in transition. I always think of Janis Joplin, in this notion of freedom, he said. Freedom is just another word for nothing left to lose. Of the losses that were incurred during the period of independence, there was one positive aspect of the incredible depression of the film industry in the early 1990s: censorship disappeared. Also, come the end of the 1990s and the early 2000s, the democratization of technology from film to digital, really cut costs of film production by leaps and bounds. Hence you had the old generation of dogma and a whole new generation of filmmakers, and student filmmakers who were starting to experiment with film grammar.

Eric Nazarian

The second panelon Governance and Economicswas moderated by Dr. Hans Gutbrod.

The first speaker was Garik Hayrapetyan, who heads the UNFPA (Fund for Population Activities) in Armenia. Hayrapetyan presented an overview of the transition through stark demographic indicators. There have been powerful shifts in demographic issues in Armenia in three areas: migration, aging, and fertility. Of these, migration is the strongest driver. Overall, we have lost 1.5 million Armenians to emigration from 1988 to 2016.

He continued, Armenia is exhibiting 1000 births less per year now. According to our projections, only 26,392 births will be registered in 2026. This is significant because this is already becoming an issue of national security. Finally, by 2050, Armenias 65+ population will rise to 22-24% of the population from its current percentage of 10.7%. This is very important for social policy.

Hayrapetyan explained that the decreasing birthrate is not just a reaction to the socio-economic situation, it is also due to changes of gender roles and of work-life balance. Hayrapetyan also referred to the dangerous trend of sex selective abortions, with Armenia having the third highest rate after China and Azerbaijan. According to our projections, by 2060, there will be 93,000 girls lost, not born. This means future mothers. That means that Armenias maternal base will decrease by almost 100,000. That is equal to total births in Armenia for two and a half years, he concluded.

(L to R) Dr. Hans Gutbrod, Garik Hayrapetyan, Dr. Nona Shahnazarian, Professor Arman Grigoryan, and Professor Anna Ohanyan

Nona Shahnazarian, a social anthropologist, spoke about Armenians in Azerbaijan losing not only their formal financial savings, but also informal investments and social capital, as demonstrated by gifts and investments in funerals and weddings giving and receiving money from friends and neighbors.

Arman Grigoryan, who teaches at LeHigh University in Pennsylvania, presented the argument that Armenias unresolved conflict with Azerbaijan is the fundamental impediment to democratization. Armenia is one of the most militarized nations in the world. Wars and bad security environments are bad for democracy because they create vested interests in belligerence and war. They create elites who are not suffering from the status quo. They have the power to deter internal challengers and they control the marketplace of ideas, he said.

Professor Anna Ohanyan of Stonehill College in Massachusetts spoke about a fractured region. The South Caucasus inherited a system of very poor regional structures of engagement. Regional fracture differs from divide-and-rule policies because it can be a lever as well as a liability to bigger powers. As colonial legacies, theyre often deployed by neo-imperial powers, but the opposite is also true. Fractured regions can also constrain and challenge these very same neo-imperial powers, especially those seeking to adjust to the changing world. Just reflecting on Armenias current choices, being pooled in the Eurasian Economic Union, which many analysts are critical of, in terms of its overdependence on Russia that it is going to create. An uncritical engagement with that regional bloc, creates the danger of history repeating itself, Ohanyan said.

Ohanyan moderated the days (and the conferences) final panel.

Dr. Karena Avedissian discussed changes in the Armenian publics perceptions and attitudes. With access to interviews conducted by Professor Donald E. Miller and Lorna Touryan Miller in Armenia in 1993 and 1994, Avedissian conducted her own set of interviews in 2015 for a comparative analysis of perceptions between the early days of independence and the present.

What emerged was a clear change in peoples attitudes toward public issues, Avedissian said. Earlier, more philosophic and tolerant attitudes were replaced by pessimism and general hopelessness.

Dr. Ara Sanjian, of the Armenian Studies Center at the University of Michigan, Dearborn, did a brief content analysis of the 2012 edition of the Armenian history textbook used at Yerevan State University. The scope of topics it covers continues to remain less encompassing than that of its Soviet era antecedents, Sanjian said. He pointed out uneven coverage of the accomplishments of various Soviet-era leaders, a heavy focus on the genocide, and minimal concentration on the independence period and the present.

Serouj Aprahamian, a doctoral candidate at York University in Canada, examined societal change through unifying artistic expressions like breakdancing. In 2005, Aprahamian only came across three dance crews with roughly 50 dancers. It was a very limited, kind of underground and secluded thing, he said.

(L to R) Professor Anna Ohanyan, Dr. Karena Avedissian, Professor Ara Sanjian, Serouj Aprahamian, Shant Shekherdimian, Armen Karamanian, Nelli Ghazaryan

A decade later, however, Armenia now has fifteen crews with more than 500 breakers who engage in various events with dancers who visit from different countries, including Finland and Russia. He concluded that this unusual form of self-expression is in line with young peoples search for a new identity in the post-independence era.

Dr. Shant Shekherdimian, a pediatric surgeon, presented an analysis of the nature of Diaspora input into Armenias health care system. Despite sizable humanitarian efforts, Shekherdimian said the diaspora has not contributed to long-term, cost-effective, sustainable improvement of the medical care system in Armenia, resulting in increased emigration even by those who benefit from short-term intervention but worry about its long-term availability.

Armen Karamanian, of Macquarie Univeristy in Australia, asked whether its possible to maintain a Western Armenian identity in Eastern Armenia. The independence of Armenia sparked the much desired reunion between homeland and the diaspora, Karamanian said. Twenty-five years have passed, transition is over and institutions such as Birthright Armenia and government programs have capitalized on the diasporas longing to return in order to secure the development of the Armenian nation through the volunteer return of its global diaspora.

Karamanian said that the desire to return amongst members of the diaspora is rooted in the desire to live in what remains of the ancestral homeland, despite differences in the Western and Eastern Armenian identities. However, Karamanian pointed to the integration of Western Armenian dialect as examples of a shifting homeland attitude and inter-acceptance of variations of Armenianness, largely due to the arrival of thousands of Syrian Armenians.

The final panelist, Nelli Ghazaryan spoke about the state of the Armenian healthcare infrastructure and compared efforts by Georgia, Armenia and Belarus to improve their healthcare infrastructure after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Despite their shared Soviet history, the three countries have travelled down different pathways in terms of healthcare infrastructure. Armenia experienced de-centralization in its health care system, while Belarus maintained a central, government-run system. Georgia, however, experienced huge privatization. As a result, Ghazaryan found that while Armenia and Georgia lack strong public health systems, Belarus maintained the same system of public health that the Soviet Union had, in addition to incorporating patient advocacy efforts and systems that promoted wellness.

What this conference demonstrated is that there is a demand for solid, detailed research on the specific aspects of issues facing the Republic of Armenia and the Diaspora. It also demonstrated that there is in fact a supply of scholars eager to delve into the most complicated questions. The Institute of Armenian Studies is committed to continuing to make this scholarship accessible, said Salpi Ghazarian, at the conclusion of the conference.

Video of the two-day conference is available below.

The conference will continue in Yerevan on May 23 and 24.

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End of Transition: Armenia 25 Years On, Now What? - Armenian Weekly

The best path to long-term stability is encouraging economic reform and growth in the DPRK.

By Joseph Yi, Byeonggeun Heo, and Junbeom Bah, The Diplomat

On March 6, 2017, the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea (DPRK) launched four ballistic missiles, three of which landed 200 miles off Japans coastline. DPRK supreme leader Kim Jong-un promises that his country will eventually have nuclear-armed, intercontinental ballistic missiles that can reach the continental United States. The Trump Administration is currently reviewing its policy options,including preemptive strikes or total isolation of the North Korean economy.

A hard-line strategy is not likely to persuadethe DPRK regime to give up its missiles and nuclear weapons. Nor will it garner the support of the South Korean public, which is poised to elect a centrist or center-left president in the May 9 election. Most importantly, preemptive strikes or enhanced sanctions will delay ongoing economic reforms in North Korea andset back its integration into the global economy. Internal economic and social change is ultimately the only path to moderate the DPRK regime and its policies.

Containment and Engagement

Since 2012, Kim Jong-un has pursued a dual strategy of nuclear deterrence and Chinese-style economic reforms. The prudent response of liberal democracies is to contain the military ambitions of North Korea and to support the belated integration of its citizens into global society. For instance, the United States and its Asian allies could continue their strategy of overt (e.g., deploying the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system in South Korea) and covert (e.g., cyber warfare) actions against the DPRK military. At the same time, we should endorse the regimes move to a decentralized, market economy, such as increasing the legal autonomy of business enterprises and allowing farmers private plots or pojon(vegetable gardens).

Kim is belatedly recognizing and legalizing the peoples de facto transition to a market economy, a process already started during his father Kim Jong-ils regime. The collapse of the Soviet Union and the devastating famine in the 1990s destroyed much of the top-down, governmental distribution system. To survive, ordinary North Koreans created non-governmental markets for goods and services, at first rudimentary and illegal, later more sophisticated and (at least partially) legal (Andrei Lankov analyzes the transformation in Real North Korea;Felix Abt offers a first-hand account in Capitalist in North Korea). With economic recovery and growth, the DPRK has developed an expansive transportation system and a nationwide cellular network (with more than 3 million subscribers), both of which further the flow of goods and information.

North Koreans are increasingly aware and desiring of goods, information, and personal contacts from the outside world. Economic reforms offer legal space for foreign tourists, volunteers, businesses, and NGOs to contribute to social and economic development and to interact with ordinary citizens. Jamie Kim (director of Reah International) has documented about 4,000 activities carried out by 500 Western organizations (governmental, nongovernmental, and private) from 2005 to 2012. Significantly, these organizations included about 50, mostly small-staffed and U.S.-registered, faith-based organizations (FBOs), such as the American Friends Service Committee, the Eugene Bell Foundation, Christian Friends of Korea, and Global Resource Services.

Since 2012, many secular organizations have left North Korea, because of international sanctions and the reduction of Western government funding. Faith-based organizations receive donations and voluntary labor from Christians, and are relatively immune to the vagaries of government funding. Probably the most famous, faith-based operation is the Pyongyang University of Science and Technology, established in 2010. North Koreas first private university, PUST is largely funded by evangelical Christians in South Korea, the United States,and other countries. About 60 foreign, Christian volunteer professors instruct 500 undergraduate and 90 graduate students, who represent the academic elite of North Korea. A few students receive scholarships to study abroad in prestigious universities (e.g., University of Westminster and Cambridge University in Britainand Uppsala University in Sweden). PUST has received much media coverage and controversy, including a BBC documentary. Former PUST instructors, such as Helen Kibby from New Zealand, have also uploaded their own YouTube videos.

One long-term PUST professor writes:

Although foreign faculty and North Korean students are both pretty guarded in general, their interaction is changing year by year. After PUST was opened in 2010, students didnt talk much with professors outside their classrooms for a while. As time went by, they could build up trust with each other to some degree and the campus atmosphere got to warm up. That has helped them become more open to have closer conversations. Dynamic interaction between faculty and students happens during different contexts: class, lab and research, advising students, thesis defense, events and contests, sports day, eating lunch and dinner together at the cafeteria, etc. Nevertheless there are always certain boundaries that they both are aware of to respect and protect each other overall.

The numbers and activities of FBOs have increased in recent years, especially entrepreneurs who combine nonprofit and business activities. Gabe* (from the United States)organized North Koreas first surfing camp in partnership with the state-run Korea International Travel Company and an American FBO, Surfing the Nations. The initial camp, which ran from July 28 to August 6, 2014, attracted 19 surfers, instructors, and safety personnel from the United States, Sweden, Switzerland, Denmark, and Australia to North Koreas east coast. The summer camp offers surfing and skating lessons and other cultural exchanges between local residents and foreign visitors. On August 2016, celebrity British vlogger Louis John Cole posted a YouTube videoabout the surfing camp, which attracted more than 700,000 views and global media controversy.

Less publicized are the hundreds of small groups that legally visit North Korea through tourism companies. Kevin* (from the United States) participated in a 16-person tour group, which planted 2,000 trees and conversed with students in English at a foreign language middle school in the Rason region near the Chinese border. Kevin was one of around 100,000 annual tourists to North Korea, the vast majority of whom are Chinese. Kevin, Helen, Gabe, and Louis all reported a deep longing among North Koreans, especially the younger and more-educated, to better themselves and to engage the outside world. They wish to inspire millions more international tourists, volunteers, and businesses to come to North Korea, develop its economy, and befriend its people.

A large academic literature finds a positive, symbiotic relationship between economic development and liberal democracy. In particular, the growth of a stable, middle class generates powerful demands for the rule of law (not of arbitrary rulers), more popular participation in politics, and resistance to military adventurism. Other literature stresses the moderating effects of interpersonal contact. People get to know each other as individuals, rather than as representatives of disliked groups; these personal relations of trust and friendship erode ones prejudices.

Any interaction between North Koreans and the outside world that increases information exchange and economic opportunity should be welcomed: these are the seeds that with time and nurturing sprout into stout trees of liberty. Andrei Lankov reminds that the transformation of the former Soviet Union ultimately came from within, from citizens who were exposed first-hand to the West. Notably, two Soviet students selected by Moscow for the first study abroad in the United States in 1958 ultimately became the top leaders of the perestroika reforms in the late 1980s. Both men later said that their one-year experiences in the United States changed the way they saw the world.

Let a Million Deals Bloom: The Imperfect Pakistan Model

The Trump administration should remember the enduring lure and power of liberty and the hunger of ordinary people to better their lives. As the administration pursues a big deal to contain the DPRKs nuclear weapons, it should also support opportunities for ordinary North Koreans to trade, attend school, sell their produce, make foreign friends, and generally negotiate a million other deals to better their lives.

American hard-liners claim that enhanced sanctions forced Iran to the negotiating table and will do the same to North Korea. Iran is not a useful analogy. Iran possesses the most powerful military in the Middle East (outside of Israel) and lacks a credible military threat from any its immediate neighbors (especially after the United States conveniently ousted Iraqs Saddam Hussein). Its regime survival does not depend on a nuclear deterrent. In contrast, the DPRK regime feels incredibly vulnerable from the United States and its Asian allies and absolutely believes that obtaining nuclear weapons is its only means of survival.

A better analogy for American policymakers is Pakistan, another historically poor, historically authoritarian country that believes nuclear weapons are necessary protection against more powerful neighbors (notably India). In fact, Indias 1971 military intervention in Pakistans civil war (which helped Pakistans eastern state become independent Bangladesh) spurred Pakistani Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto to start the nuclear weapons program as a matter of national survival. Washington has yet to finalize a deal to satisfactorily containIslamabads nuclear and missile program, or even secure such materialsfrom potential proliferation or theft. Still, the United States maintains trade and diplomatic dialogue with Pakistan, which has contributed to its stability and an expanding middle class. Growing the middle classes of Pakistan and its neighbor India are ultimately the most effective path to moderate each countrys politics and to limit the risks of military adventurism, state failure, and terrorism. Likewise, we advise the Trump Administration to engage in targeted or smart sanctions that would contain DPRK nuclear and missile programs, but not the socio-economic aspirations of its emerging, entrepreneurial middle class.

Talking With DPRK Refugees and American NGOs

As the Trump administration reviews its policy options, it would benefit from credible, first-hand information about what is actually happening inside the DPRK. The administration should be cautious about the testimonies of celebrity defectors who receive financial incentives to depict the DPRK regime in a negative, sensational manner (for example, storiesofChristians being murdered withmolten iron in political prison camps). More credible and objective testimonials come from ordinary North Korean refugees (most of whom left the DPRK for better economic opportunities, not because of political dissent) and Americans who have extensively worked in the DPRK.

American NGOs are among the most active contributors to the peaceful development of North Korea. They have witnessed tremendous changes in the past two decades and expect even more in upcoming decades, culminating with the peaceful unification of North and South Korea. They should share their experiences with their fellow Americans and assist the Trump administration to exercise wise, prudent judgment on behalf of the people of North Korea.

Joseph Yi is associate professor of political science at Hanyang University. Byeonggeun Heo is a student at Hanyang University. Junbeom Bahk graduated from Vanderbilt University. This article was supported by the Hanyang University Research Fund.

Source:http://thediplomat.com/2017/04/the-case-for-engaging-north-korea/

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A case for engaging North Korea - AmeriForce Publishing, Inc.