Ron McMullen| Guest opinion
The Taliban, who murder girls for attending school, have in recent days captured a score of cities in Afghanistan, including provincial capitals such as Kunduz, Taleqanand Sheberghan.
Some cities were taken with only token resistance from Afghan government troops; in other places troops surrendered or deserted without a fight.Although this probably doesnt spell the immediate end of the U.S.-supported Afghan government, it certainly looks like the beginning of the end.
After 20 years of direct U.S. support including the deaths of 2,373 American servicemembers and the wounding of another 20,320 the Afghan government has failed to build the legitimacy and domestic support necessary to survive.How did this happen?
The multifaceted answer includes one very salient fact:Afghanistan is the worlds premier narco-state, and its government is one of the most corrupt in the world (12th most corrupt to be exact).Afghanistans economy is based on drugs.
It produces about 90% of the worlds opium, the raw material for heroin, and produces huge amounts of methamphetamines using mountain-grown ephedra plants.Afghanistans drug industry comprises between 40%and 50% of the countrys GNP and generates billions of dollars to fund the Taliban and corrupt government officials.
The Taliban provide protection to opium poppy farmers for a fee, collect taxes on production, and charge tolls on trafficking routes.Drug money, along with funding from Pakistan (the Talibans ruling council regularly meets in the Pakistani city of Quetta), has kept the Taliban fighters fed and armed for two decades.
When the Taliban ruled Afghanistan, they became anti-poppy.In 2001, opium production was near zero, as the Taliban government did not eradicate opium poppies, it eradicated opium poppy farmers.
After the American invasion and the establishment of the Karzai government, opium poppies sprouted across the country.The United States began to press Kabul to reduce opium production by crop substitution, demand reductionand the eradication of poppy fields.
With President Karzais home region and even his brother up to their eyeballs in the narcotics trade, the effort was half-hearted.The subsequent Ghani administration is perhaps even more corrupt.
I was once in charge of the State Departments counternarcotics programs in Afghanistan and Pakistan.Using Polaris ATVs dragging iron bars through poppy fields, the special Afghan poppy eradication force made substantial headway in 2007 opium production fell for the next two years as poppy fields faced the threat of eradication.
The Barack Obama administration in 2009 downplayed counternarcotics, hoping (incorrectly, it seems) that the drug problem could be addressed once the war was won.But with drugs funding the Taliban and corrupting the Afghan government, the war couldnt be won.
In a 2012 survey of Afghans, corruption was revealed to be the second-largest concern, after insecurity.Afghan officials take kickbacks, steal money intended for development projectsand brazenly solicit bribes.High government officials buy their way into senior posts senior customs positions in Jalalabad were the most expensive to buy, given the lucrative narcotics and regular trade passing through that city to the Khyber Pass and Pakistan.
American air power and dollars may very well prolong the lifespan of the Ghani administration, but it seems unlikely that it can somehow garner the legitimacy and support to survive.After all, the communist dictator Najibullah lasted three years after Soviet forces pulled out in 1989.
It was only after the cut-off of Soviet funding that he sought political asylum with the United Nationsin Kabul.When the Taliban took Kabul in 1996, they seized Najibullah, who was tortured to death, castrated, dragged through the streets, and had his body hung from a light post.
We should be very concerned for Afghan girls and women, reporters, teachers, those who work at the American embassy, musicians, democrats, businesspeople, and ethnic and religious minorities.We should also be very concerned about Iowans susceptible to opioid addiction in 2020, 212 Iowans died of opioid overdoses.
While the Taliban probably wont take over the whole of Afghanistan this month, the country could very easily fall into a multi-sided civil war featuring warlords and drug lords battling the Taliban and each other as central administration crumbles.The countryside could blossom with pretty pink and white poppies spelling death and misery in Afghanistan, and in Iowa.
Ron McMullen is a former foreign service officer currently teaching at the University of Iowa.
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