Larry Elder is the Trumpist who may save Gavin Newsom’s job – San Francisco Chronicle

Donald Trump hasnt said much about Californias recall election. But Trumpism may be responsible for killing its chances to succeed.

A spate of recent polls show Tuesdays recall headed to defeat, just weeks after likely voters were split on whether to toss out Gov. Gavin Newsom. The difference: Then, Democratic voters were far less engaged or even aware of the fact that Newsom was on the endangered governors list and werent dialed into an off-election-calendar recall vote.

That has changed in part because of what the Newsom supporters are touting as the largest voter outreach plan in the states history.

But lets be real: It would have been a lot harder for Newsom to wake up Democrats if he hadnt received the early Christmas present of Trump-friendly conservative commentator Larry Elder emerging as the leading Republican to replace him. A Berkeley IGS Poll out Friday found that 38% of likely voters backed Elder to replace Newsom, far more than his next closest competitor, Democrat Kevin Paffrath at 10%, or other Republican rivals.

It was one thing for the Newsom campaign to try to cast the recall campaign as Trump-inspired, which it did from before the recall officially began. But Team Newsom wasnt finding a lot of traction in painting his top Republican foes John Cox, Kevin Faulconer and Kevin Kiley as marching in lockstep with Trump. They were either too bland or too moderate in Faulconers case to be mistaken for Trumpists on the order of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Then, on July 12, Elder entered the race. And Newsom found the foil he was seeking.

When the delta variant spiked, and Elder and most other top Republican candidates rejected mask and vaccine requirements as an impingement on personal freedom, Newsom received another gift. During an appearance in Bakersfield this month, Elder promised that as governor he would repeal mask mandates for state workers before I have my first cup of tea.

Our challenge from the start of this thing has been about getting Democrats understanding that this campaign is happening, Newsom consultant Sean Clegg said in San Leandro last week, where Vice President Kamala Harris parachuted in to speak for 11 minutes at a rally for Newsom.

Clegg said that the operating theory of the case from day one was to kind of learn from the mistakes that we experienced here in California when voters recalled Democrat Gov. Gray Davis in 2003.

Then, much of the campaigns narrative was focused on the unpopular Davis who had a 26% pre-recall approval rating while comparatively less critical analysis was trained on political newcomer Arnold Schwarzenegger he of the 100% movie-star name recognition.

This recall was about making the campaign a referendum on the opposition, Clegg said. Not just a kind of a dunking booth exercise on the incumbent.

In Elder, they found someone else to dunk on. Someone who not only held positions far outside the California mainstream, but like Trump wont back down from them. Orrin Heatlie, the retired Yolo County Sheriffs sergeant who initiated the recall drive, compared Elder to a streaker darting across the field naked at a football game.

His friends egged him on to do it (get in the race), the crowd is cheering him on, Heatlie told me, emphasizing that he was speaking as an individual. But he has no business being on the field.

Heatlie said Elder has been a dual-edged sword for those who want to boot Newsom.

He definitely brings the attention to the yes vote, but it also gives the opposition a villain they can focus on, said Heatlie, who has individually endorsed Kiley, a GOP Assembly member from Placer County, to replace Newsom.

The best news of all for the Newsom camp: Elders decades of off-the-cuff Trumpian commentary are preserved in the amber of his radio shows, speeches and writings.

Elder, who would be Californias first Black governor, mused in July that if California was going to talk about reparations the state has a task force that is studying the idea then slaveholders should be eligible for reparations for their financial losses since slaves were legally considered property at the time.

When people talk about reparations, do they really want to have that conversation? Like it or not, slavery was legal, Elder said as a guest on conservative commentator Candace Owens radio show in July. Their legal property was taken away from them after the Civil War, so you could make an argument that the people that are owed reparations are not only just Black people but also the people whose property was taken away after the end of the Civil War.

Some Republicans were frustrated that the more Elder spoke, the more he helped Newsom.

Are we done with this radio talk show host campaign-as-a-PR-stunt thing yet? tweeted Ron Nehring, the former chair of the California Republican Party, who supports former San Diego Mayor Faulconer. This guy Elder delivers ammo to Newsom and the Dems faster than a fleet of C17s heading out of Afghanistan.

On policy, the Newsom team emphasized how out-of-step Elder was on issues like the minimum wage. Elder opposes it. Hes not just against increasing the minimum wage he opposes any minimum wage. For weeks, Newsom has turned that fact into an alarm clock and stuffed it under organized labors pillow with lines like this at the San Leandro rally:

The fight for $15 (an-hour minimum wage)? He doesnt even believe in 15 cents, Newsom said. The governor spent about half of his dozen minutes on stage reciting a litany of Elders positions more time than he spent explaining his own.

That was a marked change from Newsoms campaign theme just a few months earlier, when he kept repeating that California was roaring back from the pandemic. Then the delta variant appeared. And Newsoms roaring back message disappeared.

Even so, Newsoms handling of the pandemic may have saved him. The Berkeley IGS Poll found that 60% of likely voters did not feel that he greatly overstepped his authority as governor in responding to the Covid-19 pandemic a common critique from recall proponents. A Public Policy Institute of California survey last week found that 78% of likely voters thought the government had done at least a good job. Thats a big increase from January, when only 36% felt that way.

Newsom consultant Ace Smith said the governors handling of the pandemic could be a template for other Democrats to emulate in next years midterm races.

The message that should be taken from this campaign is simple, which is dont be timid on COVID, Smith said. The message Democrats should use is Do you want to be safe? Do you want your communities to be safe, you want your schools to stay open? We decided to be bold on it. And frankly, that was the turning point in this campaign when voters saw that there was this clear choice between Newsom and Elder.

Recall organizer Anne Dunsmore said there will be an Elder effect, theres no question about it in this campaign, but that it is too soon to know exactly what it is.

It could be that Elder emboldened the Democratic base. It could be that Elder emboldened more Republicans who think they have a chance to win because he is a very well-known public figure. It could be that hes alienating some of the left-of-center (voters) that we may have been able to capture, Dunsmore told me. We just dont know yet. But there will be an effect.

Joe Garofoli is The San Francisco Chronicles senior political writer. Email: jgarofoli@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @joegarofoli

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Larry Elder is the Trumpist who may save Gavin Newsom's job - San Francisco Chronicle