Wednesday 05 October 2022 4:35 pm
CPI is one of the most distorted figures reported by governments. In the US, CPI came in at 8.3% but Americans are experiencing inflation at much higher rates than the already steep 8-something percent.
By contrast, the cost of digital goods in the metaverse are witnessing a depression as risk-on assets nosedive. We have seen this so far this year in stocks, bonds, and cryptocurrencies. The macro environment of central bank tightening across most countries is the worst observed so far in this long-term debt cycle, a cycle typically lasting between 75-100 years. But despite the huge drops across these assets, how much lower can they go? Read on.
The median CPI recorded a 9.2% annual rate in August, the single highest monthly print in their dataset which starts in 1983 (second highest was in June).
The Fed can return to 2% inflation if it crashes all markets by creating the mother of all recessions by continuing to hike rates. This could create a worse financial crisis than 2008. Big banks would have to be allowed to fail which could include customers losing out on their deposits.
Interest rate hikes take time to impact inflation. The Fed is always behind the curve. CME Fed Futures now show two 75 bps hikes then a 50 bps hike in December, bringing the target FFR to 425-450. While higher rates curtail demand, the real issue is the supply side of the equation to which the Fed is ill-equipped to combat. Supply chain shocks due to COVID have largely contributed to inflation as have uneconomic global warming policies.
Everything is downstream from culture. Governments know this so use the mainstream media as a weapon to create FUD which, in turn, pushes politicians who want to be reelected to do what the misinformed, misguided, brainwashed public wants. The degree of disinformation on global warming, COVID, and nutrition, let alone drugs and sex is staggering.
So how did we get to where key important economic indicators are grossly misleading, to where central banks control fiat, and to where nation-states control and collapse freedom of movement and freedom of value transfer? The formula has been practiced by every dictator and corrupt government over the millennia. Focus on obvious issues that are emotional triggers such as terrorism, child trafficking, nuclear energy, kidnapping, or money laundering. Anchor the law to the protection of innocent victims even though the percentage of actual victims is at least an order of magnitude below common threats that get underreported. Then because the lawmakers now have the public on their side, they can easily enact laws that further remove our personal and economic rights.
Common threats that are not mainstream media fodder are vast and numerous yet get underreported. Such threats include record levels of teenage depression and suicide from overparenting #jonathanhaidt, domestic violence, kids getting sick on new viruses from degraded mask-induced immune systems, and kids malsocialized from nearly 2 years of lockdowns among numerous other issues. More than 1 in 5 teens is now obese due to the pandemic lockdowns.
In the world of trading, as one of many examples, eighths went to tinies which were then decimalized. This created more slippage for retail investors due to fewer market makers. In the world of economics, the printing of money debases fiat while assets rise in value, thus the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.
Such could never exist in the metaverse which is decentralized. There are no central banks to debase your fiat. There are no governing bodies to freeze your fiat. There are no authoritarian political bodies that can lockdown the metaverse. Mainstream media is far less likely to brainwash the public as reporting the truth becomes economic as I wrote HERE.
There is a pandemic of disinformation on drugs, sex, politics, COVID, voting, investing, taxes, religion, & education. If you go against the cultural narrative, you may be labelled a conspiracy theorist.
On #metoo, you cant apply modern standards to yesterdays actions. Standards change. Cultures change. This does not excuse any form of abuse but many innocents have been thrown under the bus. We should therefore have #sextoo #drugstoo #justicesystemsurvivor for the millions of victims imprisoned or ruined for victimless crimes.
You also cant apply modern standards cross-culturally. What is legal in one culture is a crime in another, ie, use of marjiuana in California vs Hong Kong and China. Jackie Chans family has been disgraced because his son was smoking weed recreationally with a couple friends on a Friday night. Likewise, what is sexually celebrated or embraced in one culture may be demonised in another.
Dont forget that witches were once burned at the stake, many careers were ruined during Senator Joseph McCarthys Red Scare in the 1950s and 1960s, millions were and in some countries continue to get sent to prison for smoking weed, and countless were and are sent to prison for victimless sex crimes.
We should thank the whistle Blowers dating all the way back to Galileo and Copernicus up to contemporary times such as Snowden, Assange, Swartz, and Guccione who asked the courts, Why do kids cartoons depict violence #roadrunnershow yet sex which is the act from which we are made is demonised? #religion
Indeed, contradictions run rampant. Legendary musician Frank Zappa said, There is more stupidity around than hydrogen and it has a longer shelf life. I would add that hypocrisy often follows. Freedom is the use case of crypto that solves censorship and control via decentralization. Crypto breaks apart big pharma, big oil, big business, big philanthropy, and big
Crypto has spawned the Web3 metaverse which will provide far greater freedoms to individuals than any other social system of governance. Hyper structures are being formed that exist as entirely on-chain crypto protocols that run for free and forever. They are unstoppable, running for as long as the underlying blockchain exists. They are permissionless and censorship resistant. They create a positive-sum ecosystem for its users.
Countless DAOs (decentralized autonomous organizations) are being created. Ones that are truly decentralized may also become hyper structures. They come with their own rules and live and die by their utility. Those DAOs that provide useful functionality will also be economic thus their token and NFT values will rise. Those that dont will founder. Uniswap is one such hyper structure. If the team and website were to disappear, the protocol would still run in perpetuity. Others include LexDAO which creates smart contracts that carry out legal services and BitDAO which allows anyone to participate in Web3 start-up funding.
The metaverse is growing exponentially regardless of where the price of bitcoin or valuations of the cryptospace go. Many continue to build out the metaverse. We most likely have yet to see the worst of the bear market. My calls for Bitcoin heading to $10k and major averages falling by at least 50% still stand until the Fed at the very least pivots to a dovish stance.
That said, there is no guarantee that stocks and crypto will find major lows once the Fed halts rate hikes. A halt to hikes probably comes by the end of the year once the FFR hits 400 bps or more.
High inflation will be far from resolved, far from the Feds target 2%, but near record levels of debt, personal insolvencies, crashing earnings, soaring unemployment, and broken supply chains will create the mother of all recessions unless the Fed finds a reason to halt rate hikes. The targeted 2% is a pipe dream. Instead, 4.5-5% is the new norm the Fed will set. Ray Dalio of Bridgewater had an informative view on this target range.
Even once they start to print money once again, this is no guarantee stock nor crypto markets will find major lows. In each of these bear markets, the discount rate was quickly reduced but the major averages continued to make new lows.
If they print massive sums as they did post-2008 after the great financial collapse or post Mar-2020 due to Covid-19, then roaring bull markets are possible. But printing such large sums seems less likely given the twin flame conflagrations of high inflation and near record debt.
Interest rates are also still well below historical norms. In other words, the Fed does not have inflation, debt, nor interest rates on its side to launch QE5. Such would likely end up pushing rates negative since interest rates are still relatively close to 0%. They may instead take a slower approach to at least prevent markets from rupturing further. Stagflation may be the standard for years to come, but the exponential growth of web3 metaverse technologies will press onwards and upwards.
(:B :B)
Dr Chris Kacher, PhD nuclear physics UC Berkeley/record breaking KPMG audited accts in stocks & crypto/bestselling author/top 40 charted musician/blockchain fintech specialist. Co-founder of Virtue of Selfish Investing, TriQuantum Technologies, and Hanse Digital Access. Dr Kacher bought his first Bitcoin at just over $10 in January-2013 and contributed to early Ethereum dev meetings in London hosted by Vitalik Buterin. His metrics have called every major top & bottom in Bitcoin since 2011 to within a few weeks. He was up in 2018 vs the avg performing crypto hedge fund (-54%) [PwC] and is up well ahead of Bitcoin & alt coins over the cycles as capital is force fed into the top performing alt coins while weaker ones are sold.
Website 1 of 4: Virtue of Selfish Investing Crypto Reports
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chriskacher/
Company 1 of 3: TriQuantum Technologies: Hanse Digital Access
Twitter1: https://twitter.com/VSInvesting/
Twitter2: https://twitter.com/HanseCoin
Encyclopedia1: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Kacher
Encyclopedia2: https://everipedia.org/wiki/lang_en/Chris_Kacher
Author: https://www.amazon.com/author/chriskacher
Composer: https://music.apple.com/us/album/teardrop-rain/334012790
Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/user/teardropofficial
Interviews & Articles: https://www.virtueofselfishinvesting.com/news
Read more:
Outrageous raging inflation, and the distortion of CPI - City A.M.
- Ipswich Man given suspended sentence for burglary offences - Suffolk Constabulary - September 29th, 2023 [September 29th, 2023]
- Miller: Hey, Steve Rogers take a hike with your cronies! - The Observer Online - September 29th, 2023 [September 29th, 2023]
- Crime in Prison Referral Agreement - GOV.UK - September 29th, 2023 [September 29th, 2023]
- Reducing public defender workloads across the nation | Behind the ... - Missoulian - September 29th, 2023 [September 29th, 2023]
- The SIPT Judgement - Turks and Caicos Weekly News - September 29th, 2023 [September 29th, 2023]
- Two biotech CEOs charged with defrauding investors - UPI.com - December 26th, 2022 [December 26th, 2022]
- Most Free States 2022 - worldpopulationreview.com - December 26th, 2022 [December 26th, 2022]
- Economic and Social Effects of Crime | Encyclopedia.com - December 18th, 2022 [December 18th, 2022]
- What are Some Examples of Victimless Crimes? - eLawTalk.com - November 5th, 2022 [November 5th, 2022]
- Want to save Metro? Dare to re-criminalize fare beating - Washington Examiner - October 13th, 2022 [October 13th, 2022]
- Police: Catalytic converter thefts on the rise | Police and Fire | kokomotribune.com - Kokomo Tribune - October 8th, 2022 [October 8th, 2022]
- Holy See: Human dignity should be at the core of crime policies' - vaticannews.va - October 8th, 2022 [October 8th, 2022]
- Why bike theft needs to be re-criminalised, urgently - CyclingWeekly - October 8th, 2022 [October 8th, 2022]
- Quickly: Readers sound off on the issues of the day - Chicago Tribune - October 8th, 2022 [October 8th, 2022]
- Fortnum and Mason 'gives up on police catching shoplifters' - The Telegraph - September 27th, 2022 [September 27th, 2022]
- Asylum, Migration And US Foreign Policy OpEd - Eurasia Review - September 27th, 2022 [September 27th, 2022]
- The Victims of a Victimless Crime: The Future of Organized Retail Crime - Loss Prevention Magazine - September 14th, 2022 [September 14th, 2022]
- 2 people identified as human trafficking victims in Polk County | wtsp.com - September 11th, 2022 [September 11th, 2022]
- Parents of fentanyl victims rally in San Francisco - CBS San Francisco - August 22nd, 2022 [August 22nd, 2022]
- Retail Industry Joins With Law Enforcement to Keep Communities Safe - CSNews Online - August 22nd, 2022 [August 22nd, 2022]
- The boots on the ground stomping out insurance fraud - ITIJ - July 31st, 2022 [July 31st, 2022]
- Shoplifting rises 21% year-on-year | Features and Analysis - Convenience Store - July 25th, 2022 [July 25th, 2022]
- Retail Theft a National Crisis: What Must be Done to Help Businesses and Consumers - ABC Action News Tampa Bay - July 25th, 2022 [July 25th, 2022]
- Sex offender caught with vile image hoard avoids prison term - The Dumbarton and Vale of Leven Reporter - July 25th, 2022 [July 25th, 2022]
- Top Sheffield judge highlights sickening treatment of children who are sexually abused for content shared online - The Star - July 25th, 2022 [July 25th, 2022]
- Resident Evil: Netflix's eight-part adaptation's very different from the movies - Stuff - July 25th, 2022 [July 25th, 2022]
- The Consequences Of Justice Not Seen To Be Done: The Case Of Najib Razak Analysis - Eurasia Review - July 17th, 2022 [July 17th, 2022]
- Dad's weed grow 'to fund son's treatment' - Kent Online - July 13th, 2022 [July 13th, 2022]
- Reward to catch cable thieves as hundreds without internet - Kent Online - June 30th, 2022 [June 30th, 2022]
- Claim fraud on the rise: insurance firms hard-hit - Bizcommunity.com - June 30th, 2022 [June 30th, 2022]
- Smash-and-Grab Hits Calif. Macy's; NY Plans to Target Repeat Offenders - Sourcing Journal - June 30th, 2022 [June 30th, 2022]
- Human trafficking probe in Winnipeg nets three-year sentence | CTV News - CTV News Winnipeg - June 30th, 2022 [June 30th, 2022]
- Guest opinion: Clarity amid confusion in the county attorney's race - Daily Herald - June 22nd, 2022 [June 22nd, 2022]
- Fraudster jailed after trying to scam taxpayer out of 70000 with bogus claims - Shropshire Star - June 22nd, 2022 [June 22nd, 2022]
- Hack Me If You Can, Part 1: The Making of a Russian Hacker - The Journal. - WSJ Podcasts - The Wall Street Journal - June 15th, 2022 [June 15th, 2022]
- Crimes Against Morality: Definition & Examples - Study.com - June 11th, 2022 [June 11th, 2022]
- Britain's first police shoplifting squad catches twice as many thieves - The Telegraph - June 11th, 2022 [June 11th, 2022]
- Integrated assessment team to be involved in Narcotics Law revision - ANTARA English - June 11th, 2022 [June 11th, 2022]
- Soft Review: Young Black Men, Gently Pointed Toward Liberation - The New York Times - June 11th, 2022 [June 11th, 2022]
- Lubbock Woman Has Her Pot Stolen And Refuses To Call Police - KFMX-FM - June 11th, 2022 [June 11th, 2022]
- Teens held in spree of SF smash-and-grab thefts - KTVU FOX 2 San Francisco - June 11th, 2022 [June 11th, 2022]
- Michael Moynihan: Why is it that noisy people show no consideration for others? - Irish Examiner - June 11th, 2022 [June 11th, 2022]
- Sheriff Marceno: "We are taking the streets back" in reference to narcotics investigations - FOX 4 News Fort Myers WFTX - June 5th, 2022 [June 5th, 2022]
- Opinion: Are we fooling ourselves to say we're a nation of laws? - Yakima Herald-Republic - June 3rd, 2022 [June 3rd, 2022]
- He Owns This City: How Jon Bernthal Gave the Performance of the Year - Decider - June 3rd, 2022 [June 3rd, 2022]
- Guest Commentary: The Truth about Reisig - The Peoples Vanguard of Davis - June 3rd, 2022 [June 3rd, 2022]
- Matthew in the Middle | The war on drugs and crime - Eureka Times-Standard - May 3rd, 2022 [May 3rd, 2022]
- Police operation targets prostitution at Fishkill hotel - Mid Hudson News Website - May 3rd, 2022 [May 3rd, 2022]
- California State Senate Public Safety Committee Votes 4-0 to Pass SB 1472: Ryan's Law - Redefines Gross Negligence to Include Driving Over 100 MPH,... - May 3rd, 2022 [May 3rd, 2022]
- The Secret History of the War on Weed #1 - Multiversity Comics - April 25th, 2022 [April 25th, 2022]
- OPINION: Beware 'The Next Big Thing' - Daily Journal - April 22nd, 2022 [April 22nd, 2022]
- War has never been a reason not to replace a UK Prime Minister - The National - April 20th, 2022 [April 20th, 2022]
- Method 4 How to make $1k-$3k without any carding ... - reddit - April 11th, 2022 [April 11th, 2022]
- Meeting the challenge of organized retail crime - NRF News - April 11th, 2022 [April 11th, 2022]
- Industry Perspectives Op-Ed: When contractors engage in tax fraud they are stealing from the rest of us - constructconnect.com - Daily Commercial News - April 11th, 2022 [April 11th, 2022]
- A Woman's Take On the Men's Rights Movement | Hannah Cox - Foundation for Economic Education - April 11th, 2022 [April 11th, 2022]
- Sunnyside caf hit by theft and damages in second incident - LiveWire Calgary - March 27th, 2022 [March 27th, 2022]
- Fuel thefts might be 'low-level' crimes but they aren't victimless - Daily Record - March 21st, 2022 [March 21st, 2022]
- The false fantasy of funding the police - TheGrio - March 21st, 2022 [March 21st, 2022]
- Pandemic Relief Fraud- A Focus And Priority For The Department Of Justice - JD Supra - March 21st, 2022 [March 21st, 2022]
- Taraji P. Henson Uses Emmett Till As An Example To Demand Jussie Smolletts Release From Prison - Majic 102.1 - March 21st, 2022 [March 21st, 2022]
- Eight arrested as Sheriff's Office conducts prostitution sting - Palm Coast Observer - March 8th, 2022 [March 8th, 2022]
- The Rise Of Online Fraud: How To Stay Safe When iGaming - Euro Weekly News - March 8th, 2022 [March 8th, 2022]
- Brutal double murderer and school worker paedophile among the men jailed in February - Grimsby Live - March 8th, 2022 [March 8th, 2022]
- House Bill 672 Fish and game, violations - Idaho Freedom - idahofreedom.org - February 24th, 2022 [February 24th, 2022]
- Drugs and 150,000 illegal cigarettes found stashed behind wall in Hessle Road - Hull Live - February 24th, 2022 [February 24th, 2022]
- A RI city and judge start new approach for petty offenses driven by addiction. Here's why - The Providence Journal - February 17th, 2022 [February 17th, 2022]
- Police slap down suggestion they should 'focus on real crime' after cannabis bust in Coalville - Leicestershire Live - February 17th, 2022 [February 17th, 2022]
- Netflix's 'Inventing Anna' and the 'girlboss-ification' of Anna Delvey - MSNBC - February 17th, 2022 [February 17th, 2022]
- Bus lane fines rocket by more than 60 per cent in a year in Edinburgh as number cameras shot up during lockdown - Edinburgh News - February 17th, 2022 [February 17th, 2022]
- Two men involved in laundering 15 million have been sentenced to a total of 12 years in jail UKNIP - UK News in Pictures - February 17th, 2022 [February 17th, 2022]
- Judge in warning to people who view child abuse images as he jails dad who downloaded hundreds of vile pictures - The Star - February 11th, 2022 [February 11th, 2022]
- Tacarre Harper, Alleged Leader Of Smash-And-Grab Burglars That Targeted Stores On Mag Mile And Around City, Arrested And Charged - CBS Chicago - February 9th, 2022 [February 9th, 2022]
- What Homeland Security Will Be on Prowl for at Super Bowl - Newsweek - February 9th, 2022 [February 9th, 2022]
- Republicans Call For Tougher Penalties For Car Thefts, Hit-And-Runs - NBC Connecticut - February 7th, 2022 [February 7th, 2022]
- Gov. Bill Lee plays politics by failing to mention Tennessee's 22,000 COVID dead | Opinion - Tennessean - February 7th, 2022 [February 7th, 2022]
- Guelph police investigated almost 200 vehicle thefts in 2021 - GuelphToday - February 7th, 2022 [February 7th, 2022]
- How Do We Reconcile the Olympics and China's Human Rights Crisis? - Bleacher Report - February 7th, 2022 [February 7th, 2022]
- Car enthusiasts speak out about reckless driving as new bill is proposed to rev up penalties | News Channel 3-12 - KEYT - February 1st, 2022 [February 1st, 2022]
- Vandalism reported at Tiffin city parks - TiffinOhio.net - February 1st, 2022 [February 1st, 2022]