Not long ago, the situation in Ukraine could have been characterised as a stalemate. Today, the situation for the defenders is worse, with Ukrainian positions heavily contested along long sections of the frontline. Russian troops are steadily advancing, and concern is building that they might be able to break through.
While not yet gamechanging, these advances indicate that Russia can move forward and still intends to win the ground war. Backed by aircraft and guided bombs, Russian troops can put pressure on Ukrainian forces, who are overstretched by exhaustion and equipment shortages.
Admittedly, what Russia has been able to accomplish so far doesnt feel much like winning. They have recaptured some important territory, though the price paid has been ruinous.
The capture of Avdiivka alone cost Russia thousands of troops and hundreds of vehicles. Still, stopping these advances from turning into breakthroughs is costly for Ukraine as well, and despite these losses, Russia is still massing forces for further offensives.
The nature of the frontline is challenging. The presence of drones is increasing the lethality of artillery and making movement difficult.
Both sides are dug in, with extensive networks of trenches and minefields around key locations. Ukraine has done well to hold on but is now approaching a critical moment. Their forces are stretched thin across an extended front line, their western-supplied weapon systems need maintenance, and a shortage of munitions particularly artillery shells- makes it difficult to react to Russian movements.
Ukrainian difficulties on the front reflect wider challenges. The nation is struggling with conscription, with insufficient skilled troops available to shore up the frontline. As the war drags on, morale is under increasing strain, with two years of conflict taking a toll.
Ukraines president Volodymyr Zelensky signed a bill into law on April 2 which lowers the conscription age from 27 to 25. And the Ukraine parliament has just passed a bill to overhaul the countrys system of mobilisation, but details of what the new law will do remain unclear.
But the key will be providing Ukraines armed forces with the weapons it needs to continue the fight. Kyiv needs solutions to Russian air power, ideally in the form of sophisticated air defence systems, as well as more artillery and missiles.
Some of these assets are becoming increasingly hard to acquire, however. Donor nations are contending with their own depleted ammunition stockpiles, and production is still well short of what is needed on the frontlines.
Both Europe and the US are stepping up their arms production, but this will take time. Recent windfalls, such as the shipment of seized Iranian arms sent to Ukraine by the US are helpful, but a consistent supply is harder to secure.
In addition to production problems, the political will to back Ukraine is fading. Support for the war has moved from a broad international consensus into a contentious political issue in both Europe and America.
While Ukraine still has vocal supporters around the world, aid packages are becoming more difficult to secure. This was demonstrated in Europe in February. And while the Biden administration is still working hard to get weapons to Ukraine, it has to contend with other international conflicts and mounting domestic pressure.
A recent rebellion by house Republicans shows how controversial the issue of Ukraine funding is becoming. The looming US election will undoubtedly introduce further challenges, particularly given the prospect of a second Trump presidency.
The Washington Post recently reported on what it called Donald Trumps secret, long-shot plan to end the war in Ukraine". This, the newspaper report said, would involve pushing Ukraine to cede Crimea and the Donbas border region to Russia. At present though there has been no indication from Kyiv that Zelensky would entertain either of those two options.
For their part, the Russians are adapting to the nature of the war. The Putin regime remains in control and has the backing of 77% of the Russian public, according to a poll taken on February 6.
Moscow can out-conscript Kyiv and accept severe casualties with greater ease. Its economy is shifting to reflect its commitment to a long war, and it has developed workarounds to evade western sanctions.
A steady, supply of equipment is ensured through its domestic arms industry and international partners. Russia has capabilities that Ukraine do not, and it is figuring out how to use them. As a result, it has been able to take the initiative.
By summer, Russia will be able to bring its force to bear. It has already begun shaping the battlefield, attacking Ukrainian positions with guided bombs in preparation for further major attacks. They have massed significant ground forces, certainly enough to present a problem for defending Ukrainian troops.
But Russia will be unable to sustain the offensive for long particularly if they keep suffering casualties at their current rate. The situation on the ground doesnt lend itself to advancing, and Russia is experiencing many of the problems that the Ukrainians encountered last year.
On top of this, they are still making costly mistakes. A recent major attack north-west of the recently captured city of Avdiivka in the Donetsk region was repelled by Ukraine reportedly with huge losses of men and armoured vehicles.
But this is no reason to be complacent. Looking at other campaigns particularly their wars in Chechnya, it is possible to suggest that while Russia is willing to fight long and costly wars of attrition, the decisive factor may be external support. This is what distinguishes Ukraine from the wars Russia has fought within its own territory. Both Europe and America need to understand that failure to adequately support Ukraine could have disastrous consequences.
Here is the original post:
- Russia urges all sides to 'show restraint' after Iranian drone, missile attack on Israel - The Times of Israel - April 14th, 2024 [April 14th, 2024]
- China, Russia and Iran Are Rebuilding Empires to Defeat US, Europe - Bloomberg - April 14th, 2024 [April 14th, 2024]
- Ukraine appears to strike weapons system that's 'backbone' of Russia's EW - Business Insider - April 14th, 2024 [April 14th, 2024]
- Biden's Call: Survivors Say Russians Tortured Them With Twisted Sexual Abuse Named After Biden - The Daily Beast - April 14th, 2024 [April 14th, 2024]
- Drones saturate the skies over Ukraine, largely paralyzing battlefield - The Washington Post - April 14th, 2024 [April 14th, 2024]
- Ukrainians confront the once unthinkable: Losing war to Russia - Los Angeles Times - April 14th, 2024 [April 14th, 2024]
- US intelligence finding shows China surging equipment sales to Russia to help war effort in Ukraine - The Associated Press - April 14th, 2024 [April 14th, 2024]
- Reporter's notebook: Finland, happiness, saunas, NATO and the threat from Russia - USA TODAY - April 14th, 2024 [April 14th, 2024]
- Russian troops advance in Ukraine as Kyiv runs low on air defenses - The Washington Post - April 14th, 2024 [April 14th, 2024]
- Situation in east Ukraine has 'deteriorated significantly,' Kyiv commander says - POLITICO Europe - April 14th, 2024 [April 14th, 2024]
- Water levels rise and homes flood in Russia after a dam bursts near the Kazakhstan border - The Associated Press - April 14th, 2024 [April 14th, 2024]
- Trump thought Ukraine must be part of Russia during presidency, book says - The Guardian US - April 14th, 2024 [April 14th, 2024]
- Former Trump Adviser Fiona Hill Says Trump Believed Ukraine Was 'Part Of Russia' - Forbes - April 14th, 2024 [April 14th, 2024]
- US Imposes Sanctions on Use of Russian Metals on Exchanges - Bloomberg - April 14th, 2024 [April 14th, 2024]
- Russia Is Buying Politicians in Europe. Is It Happening Here Too? - The New Republic - April 14th, 2024 [April 14th, 2024]
- Western weakness in Ukraine could provoke a far bigger war with Russia - Atlantic Council - April 14th, 2024 [April 14th, 2024]
- NATO Countries Struggle to Recruit Troops to Counter Russia Threat - Foreign Policy - April 14th, 2024 [April 14th, 2024]
- Russia-Ukraine war live: US House speaker negotiates with White House over wartime funding for Ukraine - The Guardian - April 12th, 2024 [April 12th, 2024]
- FBI chief to share concerns of organized attack in US after Russia massacre - The Hill - April 12th, 2024 [April 12th, 2024]
- After Russia, FBI concerned about coordinated attack in US - NewsNation Now - April 12th, 2024 [April 12th, 2024]
- How Russia's disinformation campaign seeps into US views - Voice of America - VOA News - April 12th, 2024 [April 12th, 2024]
- Russia-Ukraine war: Ukraine parliament passes law to boost conscripts and fill army ranks - The Associated Press - April 12th, 2024 [April 12th, 2024]
- U.S. Commander in Europe Says Russia Is a 'Chronic Threat' to World - Department of Defense - April 12th, 2024 [April 12th, 2024]
- WATCH: Pentagon holds news briefing as general warns Ukraine will soon be outgunned by Russia - PBS NewsHour - April 12th, 2024 [April 12th, 2024]
- Ukraine war: How to check Russia's momentum - The Interpreter - April 12th, 2024 [April 12th, 2024]
- What Washington got wrong about Niger and Russia - Responsible Statecraft - April 12th, 2024 [April 12th, 2024]
- Ukrainian parliament adopts law to expand military draft - The Washington Post - April 12th, 2024 [April 12th, 2024]
- Russian Orthodox Church declares Holy War against Ukraine and West - Atlantic Council - April 12th, 2024 [April 12th, 2024]
- In Russia's Far East, a new heavy-lift rocket blasts off into space after two aborted launches - The Associated Press - April 12th, 2024 [April 12th, 2024]
- Why are floods in Russia and Kazakhstan so bad this year? - Reuters - April 12th, 2024 [April 12th, 2024]
- Russian Air Force Has Lost 10 Percent of Fleet in Ukraine - Air & Space Forces Magazine - April 12th, 2024 [April 12th, 2024]
- Russia and the Far-Right: Insights From Ten European Countries - International Centre for Counter-Terrorism - The Hague - April 12th, 2024 [April 12th, 2024]
- Russia's migrants and ethnic minorities shiver at new Putin terror crackdown - POLITICO Europe - April 12th, 2024 [April 12th, 2024]
- France talks tough on Ukraine while gobbling up more Russian gas - POLITICO Europe - April 12th, 2024 [April 12th, 2024]
- Opinion | Everyone Wants to Seize Russia's Money. It's a Terrible Idea. - The New York Times - April 12th, 2024 [April 12th, 2024]
- Russia Seizes Over 650,000 Acres Of Farmland And Other Assets From Company With Ties To 'Unfriendly' Country - Yahoo Finance - April 12th, 2024 [April 12th, 2024]
- New Plot Striking the Heart of Russia Is Nightmare for Putin - The Daily Beast - April 12th, 2024 [April 12th, 2024]
- Russia's army is 15% larger than when it attacked Ukraine: US general - Business Insider - April 12th, 2024 [April 12th, 2024]
- 'His life is at risk': Lawmaker calls for release of jailed Russia critic - MSNBC - April 12th, 2024 [April 12th, 2024]
- Tommy Tubervilles line on Ukraine, Russia goes from bad to worse - MSNBC - April 12th, 2024 [April 12th, 2024]
- Russia Doing Everything to Stop Ukraines Counteroffensive, Zelensky Says - The New York Times - July 17th, 2023 [July 17th, 2023]
- An Arctic 'Great Game' as NATO allies and Russia face off in far north - The Washington Post - July 17th, 2023 [July 17th, 2023]
- Trouble in Paradise? New Disputes Cloud Russia-Turkey Relations - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace - July 17th, 2023 [July 17th, 2023]
- What We Know About the Crimea Bridge Attack - The New York Times - July 17th, 2023 [July 17th, 2023]
- Russia Looks to Economic Redistribution to Shore Up the Regime - The Moscow Times - July 17th, 2023 [July 17th, 2023]
- Biden and emissary for Pope Francis to meet on Russia's deportations of Ukrainian children - POLITICO - July 17th, 2023 [July 17th, 2023]
- Russia: Ukraine to blame for fatal attack on key bridge in Crimea - The Hill - July 17th, 2023 [July 17th, 2023]
- Opinion | How Putin Broke Russia - The New York Times - July 17th, 2023 [July 17th, 2023]
- Explosions on Crimean Bridge Disrupt Key Link to Russia - The New York Times - July 17th, 2023 [July 17th, 2023]
- Moscow halts grain deal in what UN calls a global blow to people in need - Yahoo News - July 17th, 2023 [July 17th, 2023]
- Explosions disrupt traffic on a key bridge from Crimea to Russia's mainland - NPR - July 17th, 2023 [July 17th, 2023]
- Ukrainian helicopter crew say women flash them as they fly overhead to boost their morale fighting Russia - Yahoo News - July 17th, 2023 [July 17th, 2023]
- Russia halts traffic over Crimea bridge after Ukrainian attack - Financial Times - July 17th, 2023 [July 17th, 2023]
- Key Russian bridge to Crimea is struck again, with Moscow blaming Kyiv for attack that killed 2 - Yahoo News - July 17th, 2023 [July 17th, 2023]
- The bridge to Crimea is crucial to Russia's war effort in Ukraine and to asserting Moscow's control - Yahoo News - July 17th, 2023 [July 17th, 2023]
- Russia's Embassy in Washington is enmeshed in a different kind of war. - The New York Times - July 17th, 2023 [July 17th, 2023]
- A deal that lets Ukraine export grain during its war with Russia is about to expire - NPR - July 17th, 2023 [July 17th, 2023]
- China and Russia to Hold Joint Naval Drills - The Moscow Times - July 17th, 2023 [July 17th, 2023]
- UK announces new sanctions in response to Russia's forced ... - GOV.UK - July 17th, 2023 [July 17th, 2023]
- Russia Looks to Economic Redistribution to Shore Up the Regime - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace - July 17th, 2023 [July 17th, 2023]
- Raiffeisen Bank Hopes War Ends 'Soon' to Avoid Costly Russia Exit Reuters - The Moscow Times - July 6th, 2023 [July 6th, 2023]
- Ex-Wagner Group soldier on the failed rebellion in Russia, Prigozhin fallout - Yahoo News - July 6th, 2023 [July 6th, 2023]
- Who Is Aleksandr Lukashenko? - The New York Times - July 6th, 2023 [July 6th, 2023]
- Photos Leak of Russias Mercenary Boss in Ridiculous Disguises - Yahoo! Voices - July 6th, 2023 [July 6th, 2023]
- U.S. is expected to announce it will send cluster munitions to Ukraine - NPR - July 6th, 2023 [July 6th, 2023]
- The Russia-Ukraine War Changed This Finland Company Forever - The New York Times - July 6th, 2023 [July 6th, 2023]
- Russia is split, chain of command crumbles Zelenskyy - Yahoo News - July 6th, 2023 [July 6th, 2023]
- Russia Now Using Parachute Flares In Attempts To Down U.S. MQ-9 Reapers - The War Zone - July 6th, 2023 [July 6th, 2023]
- Explosions in Lviv in Western Ukraine Injure at Least 4 - The New York Times - July 6th, 2023 [July 6th, 2023]
- Pentagon Aims to Stop China and Russia from Spying on Academia | Air & Space Forces Magazine - Air & Space Forces Magazine - July 6th, 2023 [July 6th, 2023]
- Putin says Russia positions nuclear bombs in Belarus as warning to West - Reuters - June 16th, 2023 [June 16th, 2023]
- Russia says it destroyed Leopard tanks, it turned out to be tractors - Euronews - June 16th, 2023 [June 16th, 2023]
- The Straits Times - Peace is not 'no war' and derisking has risks: Josep Borrell | EEAS - EEAS - June 16th, 2023 [June 16th, 2023]
- Russia's latest space agency mission: raising a militia for the war in Ukraine - Financial Times - June 16th, 2023 [June 16th, 2023]
- Blinken: US has no reason to adjust nuclear posture over Russias weapons transfer to Belarus - The Hill - June 16th, 2023 [June 16th, 2023]
- Orbn still vetoing EU's Russia sanctions over bank insult - EUobserver - June 16th, 2023 [June 16th, 2023]
- Putin's Silence Heralds the Return of Russia's Governors as a Political Force - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace - June 16th, 2023 [June 16th, 2023]
- How Russia Went from Ally to Adversary - The New Yorker - June 16th, 2023 [June 16th, 2023]
- Opinion | Joining NATO Wont Keep the Peace in Ukraine - The New York Times - June 16th, 2023 [June 16th, 2023]
- Putin touts Russian economy as Western investors steer clear of St. Petersburg event - The Associated Press - June 16th, 2023 [June 16th, 2023]