Global protein production expected to slow, but persist in 2024 – MEAT+POULTRY

UTRECHT, NETHERLANDS Unfavorable market conditions persist, but the growth of animal protein production continues, although at a slower rate, according to Rabobanks annual Global Animal Protein Outlook report.

After four years of global production growth, producers and processors need to adapt to sustain success, Rabobank said, while margins remain tight in 2024.

Its a testament to the resilience and flexibility of companies along animal protein supply chains that they continue to grow production and deliver on customer expectations amid such challenging market conditions, said Justin Sherrard, global strategist of animal protein at Rabobank. Despite a cost of living crisis putting pressure on consumer finances, there continues to be demand for animal protein, and companies have been able to overcome challenges, from high costs to regulatory uncertainty and disease, to capitalize on it.

According to the report, higher production costs and tighter supplies will push animal protein prices up and constrain global consumption in 2024.

While still higher than pre-pandemic levels, input costs and inflation are expected to fall slightly. Growing accustomed to higher prices, some consumers are willing to pay a premium for quality, Rabobank added.

Not all structural changes in the market are detrimental many present new opportunities for businesses to improve their processes and products, Sherrard said. Those companies that can demonstrate agility in adapting to the new environment and navigate consumer willingness to pay for certain preferences will be able to take advantage of the tighter market and come out on top.

Sherrard recommended companies double down on improving their productivity, review their existing portfolios, strengthen supply chain partnerships, increase investment in new product development, and adjust their pricing strategies to navigate the coming years challenges.

Rabobanks analysts forecast marginal year-over-year production growth in the major markets of North America, Brazil, Europe, Oceania, China and Southeast Asia by 0.5% to 247 million tonnes next year.

Only poultry and aquaculture are anticipated to see production growth in 2024. Beef will continue to decline, as has been the trend in 2023, while pork will also contract modestly, Rabobank said.

Demand for plant-based meat alternatives is expected to continue dropping among customers and investors. Rabobank said foodservice is likely the key buyer for players in the category in 2024.

For companies to sustain the success of the past few years, its essential that they adapt to the structural changes in the market, Sherrard said. Instead of simply riding out the storm, animal protein businesses need to take stock of their strengths and prepare to transition their supply chains to operating in an environment with high costs and tight margins.

On a regional level, production growth for poultry and meat in Brazil will remain relatively robust, while it will also likely accelerate in Southeast Asia. China and the Oceania countries of Australia and New Zealand will see marginal growth. Meanwhile, Europe and North America will see an overall production contraction.

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Global protein production expected to slow, but persist in 2024 - MEAT+POULTRY