Watch | ‘This Could Be Massive Escalation by China to Fundamentally Alter Status Quo’: Former NSA – The Wire

New Delhi: One of Indias most renowned China experts has said the present border skirmishes and tension between India and China are very worrying.

Although what we know is based on unverified newspaper reports which quote unnamed officials but, importantly, have not been denied by the government turns out to be actually true then we are seeing a massive escalation by China and an attempt to fundamentally change the status quo, says former National Security Advisor, Shivshankar Menon.

Menon, who demitted office as NSA in 2014 and also served as foreign secretary (2006-2009) and Indian ambassador to China (2000-2003), says the present situation is very different to the past and not comparable to the sort of incidents that happened in 2013 or 2017. As he put it, On this occasion China is occupying what it has never occupied before.

In an interview to The Wire, Shivshankar Menon spoke specifically about developments in the Galwan River Valley and Pangong Lake. He said the situation in Galwan has not changed since 1962 but now if reports that suggest there are a few thousand Chinese soldiers occupying Indian territory, backed up with artillery and heavy vehicles and satellite images of tented accommodation, are true, this represents a fundamental change in the status quo. He pointedly added that these newspaper reports have not been officially denied. We may be in a situation where China is trying to change the situation on the ground, he said.

Speaking about Pangong Lake, where reports suggest the Chinese have built defence structures and stopped India patrolling in a 50 square kilometre area where previously it had access are true, Menon said this is extremely serious. It means the Chinese are patrolling where India used to patrol in the past. This is another instance of China changing the status quo. He said reports that China has built permanent defence structures are worrying.

Menon told The Wire that the Indian government must absolutely insist on the restoration of the status quo ante i.e. the position on the ground prior to the present developments which, perhaps, date back to April. However, he pointedly added that this looks like another instance of Chinas two-step-forward-one-step-back strategy which permits China to retreat one step, thus suggesting a concession to the Indian side, while ending up with a net gain of one step.

Menon said this is precisely what happened in Doklam in 2017. After a 72-day face off, both sides withdrew but after that China occupied the rest of the Valley and has since then built 36 structures, three helipads and a number of metal tarred roads. Menon said he was worried that a similar outcome could be the end result of the present stand-off between India and China.

Menon said that he was concerned the government has not made its position clear even though the present situation has continued since April. Its silence suggests that everything is negotiable and that is not a good strategy for the Indian side. He said the government needs more and better strategic communication both internally and to the rest of the world so that China too could read and hear the message.

Menon made clear he had no doubt President Xi Jinping was aware of what was happening and, additionally, that it was happening with his approval. He added that this has serious implications for Indias relationship with China. He also pointed out that how the present problem is solved will affect the future course of the relationship.

Asked about reports in Fridays newspapers that both armies have moved their soldiers closer to the LAC right across its 3,500 kilometres length from Ladakh in the west and Arunachal Pradesh in the east, Menon said that the army can handle the military situation. He said the effective military balance has improved in Indias favour since 1962. However, he emphasized that this would have political and diplomatic repercussions that would significantly affect Indias relationship with China.

Asked by The Wire if he was worried that the situation, if not quickly resolved, could lead to conflict, Menon replied not yet. When it was put to him that this meant that there was a potential for the situation slipping out of control and an unintended accident happening, he replied You said it, not me.

However, Menon underlined that what China has done is fundamentally different to the Depsang problem of 2013. He pointed out Depsang was localised and only lasted for two or three weeks. Now it seems there is military activity possibly right across the 3,500-km LAC. He also added the wider relationship between Beijing and Delhi has altered over the past seven years. He said there are more points of contention today than common points between the two countries.

Asked for his assessment of the way the Modi government has handled the situation, Menon said it was difficult to comment because he did not know what the government has done. He said we are all relying on unverified newspaper reports based on interviews with unnamed officials.

Questioned about reports in several papers that the Indian army might have dropped its guard, either because it delayed annual exercises usually held in March because some soldiers got COVID-19 or because it was taken by surprise by the Chinese army, Menon said that now was not the time to go into this issue. At the moment we have a crisis that must be resolved. However, he added that afterwards we need an analysis of what happened, of what was done right and what was done wrong. He said we needed a proper post-mortem along the lines of what happened after Kargil in 2001.

Speaking to The Wire about why the Chinese had acted in the way they have and at this time when there is a pandemic alongside an economic crisis Menon suggested that this was part of a general shift in Chinas behaviour. He said for a variety of internal and external reasons, China was behaving more assertively and its response relies on ultra-nationalism. In this context, he cited Chinas tariff war with Australia, its various disputes with the US, its behaviour in Hong Kong, its attitude to Taiwan and its action in the South China Sea. What was happening on the India-China border was part of this general pattern.

Menon said he did not believe that this was just signalling by China because its a most inefficient way of doing so We are all guessing what the signal is.

Menon said some people hold the view that China senses this is her moment because the rest of the world has been weakened by COVID-19. However, he added, this is not a view he subscribes to.

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Watch | 'This Could Be Massive Escalation by China to Fundamentally Alter Status Quo': Former NSA - The Wire