Category Archives: Ukraine

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (center) walks with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., (left) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., on September 21. Zelenskyy made his renewed case for American aid to Ukraine to a deeply divided Congress. Mark Schiefelbein/AP hide caption

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (center) walks with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., (left) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., on September 21. Zelenskyy made his renewed case for American aid to Ukraine to a deeply divided Congress.

The next speaker of the House will have the power to decide what policies come up for a vote in the House of Representatives, leaving funding for U.S. involvement in Ukraine in the balance.

Last week, former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., made a last-minute decision to move ahead with a short-term government spending bill without the $24 billion for military, humanitarian and economic aid for Ukraine requested by President Biden. That move avoided an impending government shutdown but it may have doomed any future funding.

McCarthy lost his job days later after hardline members turned on him for passing a spending bill with the support of Democrats. Now as House Republicans choose his successor, each candidate is under the same intense pressure from far-right members who ousted McCarthy.

Roughly half of House Republicans recently opposed a relatively small $300 million aid package for Ukraine and support for further spending is even less predictable. The issue also divides the three potential candidates who have emerged so far, House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., and Rep. Kevin Hern, R-Okla.

Jordan and Scalise are officially in the running and Hern has yet to decide. While others may still enter the race, the future speaker will need to win the support of 218 members and Ukraine is expected to be a significant factor.

Jordan told reporters Wednesday that he was "against" moving forward with an aid package for Ukraine. "The most pressing issue on Americans' minds is not Ukraine," he said. "It is the border situation, and it's crime on the streets. And everybody knows that. So let's address those."

Jordan and Hern have both consistently voted against Ukraine funding since the war began, and both voted against the $300 million in aid that was separated from the Defense bill last week.

Scalise, however, did vote for the $300 million in aid last week, as well as $40 billion in supplemental funding for Ukraine in 2022.

Ukraine aid was one of several sticking points among House Republicans as they tried to coalesce around government funding bills last month. There are a number of members in the conference who do not support any further assistance to Ukraine.

Others say they are sympathetic to the cause, but have concerns about oversight and potential corruption in the Ukrainian government. Republican leadership removed $300 million of Ukraine aid when the divide over that funding threatened their ability to pass the entire Defense Department appropriations bill.

Leaders decided instead to bring that $300 million up for a standalone vote 101 Republicans supported it and 117 Republicans opposed.

When McCarthy introduced a short-term government funding measure last week to avoid a shutdown, there was no money for Ukraine.

Democrats said they were disappointed the Ukraine money did not make it into the stopgap, but they were also optimistic that McCarthy would move forward with the aid separately. Rep. Jim McGovern, the top Democrat on the House Rules Committee, told reporters "I trust that we'll figure out a way" to pass more funding.

Top Democrats in the House released a statement saying, "When the House returns, we expect Speaker McCarthy to advance a bill to the House Floor for an up-or-down vote that supports Ukraine, consistent with his commitment to making sure that Vladimir Putin, Russia and authoritarianism are defeated."

But now that McCarthy has been voted out, Republicans have to choose his replacement before any work can be done to pass appropriations on the floor for Ukraine or otherwise. And there's no guarantee that McCarthy's successor would agree to advance Ukraine aid at all. Which brings us back to his potential replacements.

President Biden said Wednesday that he is worried the speakership shake-up could threaten Congress's ability to deliver more Ukraine funding. "But I know there are a majority of members of the House and Senate, in both parties, who have said that they support funding Ukraine," he added, noting he planned to soon announce a "major speech" on the issue.

It's unclear whether House Republicans who oppose aid to Ukraine would vote for a new speaker who supports it. But outright opposition to Ukraine aid could also alienate the 100 or so Republicans who do want continued support. And as we saw this week, it only takes a handful of defectors from within the narrow majority to bring the chamber to a screeching halt.

Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, who supports Ukraine funding, has suggested the money could be paired with border security measures to win passage in the House. He said the Senate should craft a package with Ukraine money, border security and natural disaster aid to send over to the House as part of the next short-term government funding measure.

"If they took up that package ... it would pass overwhelmingly in the House," he said. "You'd get more than half of the Republicans and virtually all Democrats."

Sen. Mike Rounds, R-S.D., said he would support further Ukraine funding however it could pass either as a standalone bill, part of a border package or attached to a larger appropriations bill.

"Regardless of who the speaker is, I believe that we will have appropriate funding for Ukraine. The question is what vehicle is the best vehicle and for what length of time," he said. "But for folks that are wondering whether or not we need to send a message to Putin, there is no misunderstanding about the fact that we will support Ukraine in their battle for freedom."

But even before McCarthy's ouster, Democrats brushed aside the idea of pairing Ukraine money with border security as unworkable, or political gamesmanship.

"Why are we playing politics with the future of the world order?" Sen. Chris Murphy said Saturday night. "Guess what? We haven't been able to do immigration reform in 40 years. It's hard. We should do it but you shouldn't put the survival of Ukraine on the backs of our ability to break a 40-year logjam on immigration. It's just too important."

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The fate of Ukraine funding lies in the balance with speaker's race - NPR

Its estimated that4.5 million more workers may be needed over the next decade in the labour force.

UN News asked Michael Newson, Senior Programme Coordinator for Migration and Sustainable Development at the International Organization for Migration (IOM) in Kyiv, Ukraine, about how people could be encouraged back home.

Michael Newson: IOM has already observed an increase of Ukrainians returning to Ukraine despite the ongoing war. Numerous surveys have indicated that a large percentage of Ukrainians who fled the country, especially those based in the European Union, intend to return once conditions allow. We can also expect that many will remain abroad in the long term. Current data suggests that Ukraine can expect a larger share of its population abroad to return after the war than we have seen in other post-conflict settings.

When and whether Ukrainians abroad return to the country will depend on a number of factors, including their conditions in their countries of refuge and in Ukraine. The number of people who choose to return to Ukraine will also depend on the types of policies and programmes that the Ukrainian Government and the international community put in place to incentivize return.

Reconstruction efforts are already underway in Ukraine, including schools.

UN News:What conditions are needed to encourage people to return home?

Michael Newson: Security is obviously a key criterion. Until people can feel safe and comfortable returning to their homes, any incentive programmes are likely to have a limited effect. People want to have a sense of economic stability and confidence that they will be able to provide for themselves and their families upon return. As such, ensuring basic healthcare and education services are in place is essential.

Developing programmes to link persons abroad with job opportunities in Ukraine even prior to their return will go a long way in encouraging people to return to the country. Often, we speak of providing financial incentives for return to address the costs of return and re-establishing oneself. Ultimately, incentive packages have to reduce the risks that people perceive with return. That includes security risks but also the economic risks and the risks that, should they choose to reverse their decision, they wont be able to return to their country of refuge.

UN News:How will IOM support the Ministry of Economy in the process of reintegrating Ukrainians and ensuring a smooth transition back into the labour market?

Michael Newson: These are precisely the types of conversations we are currently having with colleagues at the Ministry of Economy and International Labour Organization (ILO).

Agriculture is one of the most important industries in Ukraine.

What is absolutely essential is that programmes are evidence-based. We need to develop programmes that respond to concerns Ukrainians abroad have when they are considering returning and to issues people who have already returned have faced in terms of their reintegration and transition into the labour market.

We can also learn from previous post-war scenarios. We need to recognize that, like anyone who is considering a major move, having a job and being able to provide for oneself is only part of the concerns of moving.

Developing services for potential returnees that assist and facilitate the process of finding housing, enrolling children in school, finding a job, or linking with healthcare services for existing and chronic health issues will also encourage return and ensure a smooth transition.

What we want to avoid is providing incentives for return and reintegration that put returnees in a more favourable position to those who have remained in the country, as this can lead to social tensions.

UN News:If not enough Ukrainians workers return home post-war, how will this affect the job market?

Michael Newson: Given the demographic situation in Ukraine even before the full-scale invasion, its clear that returning Ukrainians, on their own, will not be sufficient to meet the labour market needs of the country going forward, both for reconstruction and the broader economic recovery.

The Ministry of Economy has indicated that an additional 4.5 million workers may be needed in the next 10 years to meet labour market needs and economic objectives.

Incoming labour migration will be one of several tools that will be used in order to address this.

Ukraine is one of many countries in the region which is not traditionally seen as countries of immigration but need to start to reconsider policies and look at bringing in foreign workers to meet growing labour market gaps both at higher and lower skill levels.

Many Ukrainians who were forced to live in basements during the early stages of the invasion fled the country.

Beyond these priorities, we should also be looking at capital investments such as machinery and automation as well as a re-design of management and operations structures that can increase productivity.

UN News: How challenging do you expect the post-war period to be as Ukraine readjusts to peace time?

Michael Newson: The challenges Ukraine faced even prior to the full-scale invasion were significant. The war has obviously exacerbated a number of these challenges relating to demographics, social services, and economic development.

However, I am heartened and encouraged by the Government of Ukraines willingness to acknowledge and face these challenges head on. The Government and the people of Ukraine have demonstrated incredible resilience and adaptability over the past 18 months.

There is no reason to think that, with the support of the international community, they could not adapt in order to stimulate the countrys reconstruction and economic recovery when peace arrives.

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INTERVIEW: Planning the post-invasion return of citizens to Ukraine - UN News

To date, this Emergency Appeal, which seeks CHF 800 million, is 59% cent funded, and a significant funding gap of CHF 328 million remains. To continue supporting National Societies around the world to play their key role in supporting people impacted by the crisis, the IFRC calls for partners to renew their commitment to accompanying the IFRC Network in its response by further contributing to the IFRC Appeal

Description of the crisis

Eighteen months of conflict escalation between Russia and Ukraine continues to claim lives and fuel a wide-ranging of hu-manitarian crisis. 21 million people are affected in and outside of Ukraine and the humanitarian needs remain high, with sudden spikes in response to the developments on the ground, including new hostilities in eastern Ukraine and movements of people within and outside the country.

One devastating recent consequence of the conflict has been the destruction and subsequent depletion of the Kakhovka dam, leading to urgent and dire humanitarian needs across southern and eastern Ukraine. The repercussions have extended to surrounding regions, where private homes, businesses, and community infrastructure have suffered extensive damage. Tens of thousands of people in the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast lost access to piped water, as the reservoir, which serves as a crucial source of drinking water for at least 700,000 individuals, experienced in the first week a staggering 70% decrease in capacity, as reported by Ukrainian authorities.

The number of displaced people increased over months in some of the neighboring countries. For instance, Bulgaria has witnessed a doubling of arrivals since May 2023, placing immense pressure on services and aid support. While some of these arrivals may be temporary, already 5,000 additional displaced people sought accommodation support in the country. Hosting countries are also issuing new legislations with a variety of impacts on displaced people from Ukraine and other migrants.

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Ukraine and Impacted Countries Crisis - Emergency Appeal n ... - ReliefWeb

In a bid to boost international research collaboration, the University of Liverpool has successfully led a project aiming to enhance digital research ties between the UK and Ukraine. Focusing on a broad digital theme, the initiative explores areas like mathematics, algorithms, AI, data science and more.

Titled Building Digital Capability for Recovery in Ukraine, the venture was pioneered by Professor Igor Potapov from the Department of Computer Science at the University of Liverpool Science for Ukraine initiative. The programme's goals are multifaceted, from stimulating the growth of the research environment and promoting Ukrainian scientific organisations to establishing a vibrant research network with representatives from various prestigious organisations. These include The Royal Society, The Turing Institute, and the National Research Foundation of Ukraine.

The project was formally started with an open call for Digital Theme Ambassadors in January 2023. This call saw significant promotion on popular social platforms like LinkedIn and Twitter. Thanks to assistance from the #ScienceForUkraine academic community group and the Cormack Consultancy Group, the call reached a broad audience. From January to March 2023, the project witnessed the recruitment of 64 Digital Theme Ambassadors. These ambassadors hail from diverse academic backgrounds, with 48.4% from the UK, 36.9% from Ukraine, and the remainder international academics.

To further nurture these collaborations, the University of Liverpool hosted a series of hybrid coordination meetings, culminating in the UK-Ukraine research twinning conference. The event occurred from March 27-30, 2023, with an impressive turnout of 292 participants from the UK and Ukraine. Post the conference, a research network known as the DIGITAL-UA Slack Channel emerged. The channel is initiated and maintained by Digital Theme Ambassador Dr Olexandr Konovalov from University of St Andrews and the channel now boasts 180 academic members, serving as a hub for discussion, information dissemination and fostering new initiatives.

Various online platforms facilitated this conference, with Easychair utilised for the submission review process, Gather.town for organising virtual poster sessions and Zoom for online sessions of invited talks and presentations.

On the benefits front, this initiative is expected to pave the way for Ukrainian academics to integrate seamlessly into the international research circuit. Numerous new collaborations have already surfaced. For instance, The Turing Institute is now in talks on cybersecurity and software verification, while there's a budding collaboration between BCS and top Ukrainian universities.

These advancements echo the OECD Policy Responses recommendation for Digitalisation for recovery in Ukraine. Furthermore, multiple academic media platforms and newsletters have reported the success of this initiative, amplifying its significance in bolstering UK-Ukraine digital research collaborations.

It is a groundbreaking move that promises to augment Ukraine's digital infrastructure, digital economy, and IT sector, potentially playing a pivotal role in its future recovery.

The University of Liverpool utilised a trio of online platforms for a recent conference: Zoom for videoconferencing, Gather.town as a virtual venue, and Slack for updates and chat conversations. Zoom provided the leading platform for talks, but solely relying on it could lead to a mundane experience. Gather.town was incorporated to mimic the atmosphere of a physical event, allowing participants to engage in impromptu interactions when their avatars approached each other.

Gather.town excelled during the poster sessions. Attendees could navigate their avatars to different poster booths, view previews, and interact with presenters in a designated private space. However, anticipating its use for spontaneous interaction was more challenging and might require more host interactions. Nonetheless, Gather.town is suited well for virtual exhibitions with predefined informational context for interactions or for more intimate gatherings where participants had pre-existing real-life connections.

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Digital Collaboration between UK and Ukraine | BCS - BCS

Inter Miami CF defender Sergii Kryvtsov has been called up to the Ukrainian national team for its upcoming 2024 UEFA Euro qualifying matches.

Kryvtsov and Ukraine will first face North Macedonia in epet ARENA in Prague, Czech Republic on Saturday, Oct. 14 at 9 a.m. ET. In the following matchup, the Ukrainian team will visit Malta in the Ta Qali National Stadium in Malta, on Tuesday, Oct. 17 at 2:45 p.m. ET.

In the international arena, Kryvtsov represented Ukraine's U-16, U-17, U-18, U-19, and U-21 youth sides before debuting for the nations senior side in 2011. Notably, he was a key member of Ukraines U-19 side that clinched the UEFA European Under-19 Championship in 2009, starting and playing the full 90 minutes in each of the teams five matches of the competition. The defender has played a total of 34 times for Ukraines senior side to date, including two UEFA Euro 2020 and seven UEFA Nations League appearances, and recorded an assist in the process. Most recently, Kryvtsov featured for Ukraine this past month for the UEFA Euro qualifying matches, coming on as a second-half substitute in the teams 1-1 draw against England before starting in Ukraines second match against Italy.

At the club level, the 32-year-old center-back has registered 37 appearances across all competitions to date since joining the team in January, recording an assist and a goal. Notably, Kryvtsov was a key member in the teams 2023 Leagues Cup title-winning campaign, starting in all seven matches throughout the competition and recording his first assist for the Club in the semifinals as Inter Miami won its first official trophy.

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Called Up: Sergii Kryvtsov Called Up by Ukraine National Team - Inter Miami CF

In addition to using airstrikes to attack Russian military forces on or near the battlefield, Ukraine has also conducted more than 100 attacks, mostly with an array of drones, inside Russia itself and against Russian-occupied Crimea. Ukraine has bombed not only numerous military targets, but also the Expo Center exhibition complex and a skyscraper under construction in Moscow, oil facilities in Crimea, and infrastructure in other areas, such as an electric substation. These strikes are now a regular occurrence and, while causing few casualties, have temporarily shut down various airports and otherwise disrupted daily life.

In addition to using airstrikes to attack Russian military forces on or near the battlefield, Ukraine has also conducted more than 100 attacks, mostly with an array of drones, inside Russia itself and against Russian-occupied Crimea. Ukraine has bombed not only numerous military targets, but also the Expo Center exhibition complex and a skyscraper under construction in Moscow, oil facilities in Crimea, and infrastructure in other areas, such as an electric substation. These strikes are now a regular occurrence and, while causing few casualties, have temporarily shut down various airports and otherwise disrupted daily life.

These attacks hinder Russian warfighting, but Ukrainian leaders probably also seek to have a more strategic impact, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky declaring that the strikes show that war is gradually returning to Russia. How might Ukraines air attacks coerce Russia, if at all?

Most studies of the strategic use of air power warn that having a major impact on adversary decision-making through air power alone is difficult. Drawing on the history of strategic bombing in World War II, Vietnam, the first Gulf War, Kosovo, and other campaigns, scholars have concluded that strategic effects are rare. Adversary leaders and publics rally in the face of bombing, at times becoming more supportive of their regimes or, at the very least, finding themselves unable to rebel against powerful governments, and these campaigns can divert air assets from the battlefield.

Yet these and other works also suggest that strategic bombing can have a range of effects, from diverting scarce air defense resources to building up morale in the country carrying out the bombing.

The Russia-Ukraine war differs from many past uses of air power. In this conflict, neither side has true air superiorityboth continue to bomb the other using drones and missiles, among other means. In addition, the strategic air campaign is at best a minor part of the overall struggle. The vast majority of air attacks are part of the clash of conventional forces. Finally, in the case of Ukrainian attacks on Russia, the strikes are at best minor, causing few casualties and only minimal disruptions to daily life, in contrast to the much more massiveand deadlyRussian bombing of Ukraine.

Most of the overall effort to coerce Moscow involves economic pressure and the clash of armies along various fronts in Ukraine. The United States and its European allies have orchestrated extensive financial, import and export, and other sanctions on Russia. Moscow has weathered these sanctions so far, but the pressure continues. Part of the goal is to undermine popular support for Russian President Vladimir Putins regime, putting pressure on it to end the conflict. A separate goal is to increase elite dissatisfaction, which may also put pressure on Putin and could even lead to a coup. In addition, Ukrainian bravery and resourcefulnessbacked by massive U.S. and European aidhas thwarted Russias expansive military goals. Continued resistance and counteroffensives are a form of coercion by denial, essentially sending a message to Moscow that it will not achieve its maximal objectives and that, as a result, continued fighting will achieve little.

Compared with these two coercive prongs, airstrikes deep into Russia are less importantbut they are not irrelevant. One possible effect is that Russians become afraid of the airstrikes and turn against their government. This seems highly unlikely. It is unclear if Ukraine has killed any Russians in these air attacks (though it is possible that Russia is covering up a small death toll), but in any event, the numbers would be small, especially for a big country like Russia.

In addition, the airstrikes are not that frequent and only hit small parts of the country. The vast majority of Russians can go about their daily lives largely unaffected. Perhaps most important, even if they are angry and terrified, it is hard for citizens to rebel against an authoritarian regime, though a rapid change is at least conceivable.

A more realistic goal would be to augment the strategy of military denial by making it clear to ordinary Russians and the Russian elite that they are not winning. Continued Ukrainian airstrikes can interrupt the steady drumbeat of regime propaganda, showing that Ukraines will to fight remains strong. Putin has successfully convincedor forcedordinary Russians to support the war, but they will be less enthusiastic the more apparent it is that they are not winning.

Even more important, these airstrikes, even if limited, can hearten Ukrainian resistance. Coercion is usually dynamic, with both sides trying to convince the other side that it cannot win and thus should make concessions. Ukraines efforts may seem paltry when compared with Russias bombing campaign, which has targeted civilians in Kyiv and other cities, as well as Ukraines power grid, grain shipping facilities in Odesa, and other sites. These attacks regularly kill civilians, sometimes in large numbers, such as the bombing of a theater-turned-shelter in Mariupol that reportedly killed around 300 Ukrainians.

Nevertheless, when punishment is one-sided, it is hard to convince people to stay in the fight. But the demonstrated ability to hurt the other side gives people hope. Shortly after Japan bombed Pearl Harbor, the United States conducted a daring bombing raid on Japan itself, known as the Doolittle Raid. Although the operation itself did only limited damage to Japan, and the United States lost most of the aircraft and several of the crew involved, it buoyed American spiritsthe United States was striking back and making its enemy pay.

Finally, airstrikes might force Russia to divert resources to protect its cities and infrastructure, including resources that might be better used on the battlefield. The Doolittle Raid led Japan to station four of its fighter groups in the home islands during 1942 and 1943, a time when it desperately needed air power elsewhere, as well as to increase its overall defensive perimeter, which made its supply lines vulnerable. To the extent that Putin is feeling political heat from Ukrainian attacks, he may feel compelled to have the Russian military increase air defenses around Russian cities and other targets, with less available for the battlefield.

Despite these possible benefits, coercive airstrikes can have several potentially negative effects. First, it is very difficult to send messages about willpower, surrendering, or red lines through the use of military force. Misperceptions, the fog of war, and other biases quickly come into play. Even accidents can be considered part of an overall design. The United States shot down Iran Air flight 655 in 1988, mistaking it for an Iranian military aircraft at a time of a military confrontation in the Strait of Hormuz and killing all 290 passengers aboard. As Iran expert Kenneth Pollack wrote, The Iranian government assumed that the attack had been purposeful as part of a U.S. plan to help Iraq in its war against Iran.

In the Russia-Ukraine context, it is possible that Ukrainian strikes meant to demonstrate resolve or show the Russian elite that Moscow is losing could instead convey a different, and quite unintended, message.

The adversary may even escalate in response. Ukraines attacks on civilians or civilian infrastructure could bolster Putins argument that the Ukrainians are barbaric and that Russias own numerous atrocities are justified. They could also discredit voices calling for peace or restraint and even strengthen domestic support for a regime that can now claim it is acting in self-defense.

They may even lead to more brutality against Ukrainian citizens. In addition to bolstering its air defenses after the Doolittle Raid, Japan carried out brutal reprisals in China, fearing that the nationalist government there posed a more dangerous threat than anticipated because of its sheltering of U.S. air forces. In August, Russia unleashed a barrage of missile and drone attacks, claiming that it was a response to a Ukrainian attack on a Russian tanker.

For Ukraine, the most important risk might be diplomatic. Although some supporters of sanctions and other anti-Russia measures are staunch, many care little about the conflict and would prefer to resume trade with Russia. Being able to use Ukrainian strikes as a false form of moral equivalency may allow some governments to reduce support for Ukraine.

Ukraines coercive airstrikes must be thought of in the broader context. The most important use of air power remains on the battlefield, but the strikes on Russia itself might have a range of benefits, not least to Ukrainian morale. At the same time, Ukraine must carefully balance how such strikes are perceived in Russia and abroad.

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Are Ukraine's Airstrikes Inside Russia Strategically Effective in the ... - Foreign Policy

Hamas vs. Israel, again. Rockets are targeting multiple northern and southern Israeli cities Tuesday, including the capital of Tel Aviv, as the militant group Hamas continues its new assault on Israel that began with a brutal surprise attack across several fronts on Saturday.

At least 1,600 people have died so far from the fighting, which has caused Israel to declare war and call up 360,000 reservists, which the New York Times reports is a record number in such a short period of time (four days of conflict). The death toll includes around 900 in Israel, and almost 700 in Gaza, according to the Associated Press, citing the Israeli military and officials in Gaza.

Hamas will understand that by attacking us, they have made a mistake of historic proportions, said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, writing Monday on social media. The savage attacks that Hamas perpetrated against innocent Israelis are mindboggling, he said; and those attacks included slaughtering families in their homes, massacring hundreds of young people at an outdoor festival, kidnapping scores of women, children and elderly, even Holocaust survivors.

We will exact a price that will be remembered by them and Israels other enemies for decades to come, Netanyahu vowed. Already, the scale of violence rivals Israels war with Egypt and Syria 50 years ago. Reuters reports the Israeli air force is carrying out its fiercest attacks on the Gaza Strip in its 75-year conflict with the Palestinians, razing whole districts to dust despite a threat from Hamas militants to execute a captive for each home hit.

What does Hamas want? Palestinian statehood and an end to Israeli occupation, for starters. According to AP, reporting Monday from Jerusalem, Desperation has grown among Palestinians, many of whom see nothing to lose under unending Israeli control and increasing settler depredations in the West Bank, the blockade in Gaza and what they see as the worlds apathy.

Meanwhile, Israel is run by its most hard-right government ever, dominated by ministers who adamantly reject Palestinian statehood, AP writes. So its far from clear when the current fighting could come to an end.

The view from Washington: Hamas is a terrorist group. Full stop, said a White House official in a phone call with reporters on Saturday, and promised, we will treat Hamas for what they are. They are an international terrorist organization.

The Israelis have described this as their September 11th, a Pentagon official told reporters Monday. This is ISIS-level savagery that we have seen committed against Israeli civilianshouses burned to the ground, young people massacred at music festivals, the official said.

Thats partly why the Pentagon ordered its USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group to the Eastern Mediterranean shortly after the attacks began. That group includes the Ticonderoga-class guided missile cruiser USS Normandy; and four Arleigh-Burke-class guided missile destroyersUSS Thomas Hudner, USS Ramage, USS Carney, and USS Roosevelt.

The U.S. military also augmented F-35, F-15, F-16, and A-10 fighter aircraft squadrons in the region, Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin said in a statement Sunday, and added, The U.S. maintains ready forces globally to further reinforce this deterrence posture if required.

The Pentagon is already sending additional military aid to Israel, John Kirby of the National Security Council said Monday evening. We fully expect that there will be additional requests for security assistance from Israel as they continue to expend munitions in this fight, he said. And we will stay in lockstep with them, making sure that were filling their needs as best we can and as fast as we can.

Developing: Hamas officials claim Iran helped plan the attacks, according to the Wall Street Journal, reporting Sunday from Dubai. However, White House and Pentagon officials said publicly afterward that they have not yet seen any evidence to support that claim, though officials are watching closely for any signs. After all, Kirby said Monday evening, Iran has been supporting Hamas for many, many yearstools, training, capabilitiescertainly rhetorically but in much more tangible ways than that. So, absolutely, theres a degree of complicity here writ large.

At least 11 Americans have been killed in the attacks by Hamas militants; others may be held hostage. (The New York Times is keeping tabs on foreigners who are believed to have perished or remain unaccounted for so far, here.) President Joe Biden said Monday that hes directed my team to work with their Israeli counterparts on every aspect of the hostage crisis, including sharing intelligence and deploying experts from across the United States government to consult with and advise Israeli counterparts on hostage recovery efforts.

In this moment of heartbreak, the American people stand shoulder-to-shoulder with Israelis, said Biden. We remember the pain of being attacked by terrorists at home, and Americans across the country stand united against these evil acts that have once more claimed innocent American lives.

Biden also joined his French, German, Italian, and British counterparts condemning Hamas and its appalling acts of terrorism, according to a joint statement released Monday. There is never any justification for terrorism, they said, and threw their support behind Israel, warning, this is not a moment for any party hostile to Israel to exploit these attacks to seek advantage.

All of us recognize the legitimate aspirations of the Palestinian people, and support equal measures of justice and freedom for Israelis and Palestinians alike, the five leaders added. But make no mistake, they said; Hamas does not represent those aspirations, and it offers nothing for the Palestinian people other than more terror and bloodshed.

Looking ahead, if the U.S. wants to help Israel and Ukraine simultaneously in their times of need, We need additional support from Congress, Army Secretary Christine Wormuth told reporters at the AUSA annual conference in Washington on Monday. Wormuth has been spending the last several months trying to shake out whatever additional munitions she can from the U.S. defense industrial base to help satisfy Ukraines artillery needs.

The Army will need additional funding from Congress, to be able to increase our capacityto expand production and then to also pay for the munitions themselves, she said Monday.

A Pentagon official concurred on Monday, telling reporters, This is a clarifying moment in which we would welcome working in a bipartisan manner with Congress and the executive branch to ensure that we're sending a signal to allies and partners across the world that our government, both parties and both branches of our government, are working together to ensure that the appropriate authority and appropriations are available to support and respond to crises and contingencies.

A snapshot from the Association of the U.S. Armys annual meeting: As the war raged in the Middle East, the annual AUSA show went on in Washingtonbut several of the display booths at Israels capacious pavilion on the show floor sat deserted, Defense One staff reported Monday. Instead, a candle burned on a counter and sales representatives wore black swatches behind their U.S.-Israel flag pins. Israel Aerospace Industries canceled a planned press event.

We have a bit more from AUSA below the fold

Welcome to this Tuesday edition of The D Brief, brought to you by Ben Watson with Bradley Peniston. If youre not already subscribed, you can sign up here. On this day in 1845, the U.S. Naval Academy opened in Annapolis, Maryland, with a class of 50 midshipmen and seven professors. The curriculum included mathematics and navigation, gunnery and steam, chemistry, English, natural philosophy, and French.

Pentagon chief Austin and Joint Chiefs Chairman Air Force Gen. Charles Brown are traveling to Brussels for Wednesdays in-person meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, which is the 16th group meeting to date. While in Brussels, Secretary Austin will also join a NATO Defense Ministerial scheduled for Thursday at NATO headquarters in Brussels.

The rainy season has begun in Ukraine, though conditions vary across the vast front lines, according to the latest assessment from the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War, writing Monday evening. Otherwise, Ukrainian forces continue to advance incrementally in several locations around western Zaporizhzhia and to the east, while the deteriorating weather is making drone operations more challenging. Reuters has a bit more on recent alleged Ukrainian gains, here.

Its a big week for Pentagon officials in public, due partly to the AUSA conference in downtown D.C. But its also a busy week for several other organizations hosting events this week, too, including the Intelligence and National Security Alliance, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and the Atlantic Council.

Army chief Gen. Randy George is set to speak Tuesday at the AUSA conference; thats slated for 12:30 p.m. ET. NORTHCOM and SOUTHCOM commanders are expected to speak as well at AUSA on Tuesday. Check out an online interactive schedule for AUSA, here.

Indo-Pacific Command's Intelligence Director Rear Admiral Thomas Henderschedt headlines the event hosted by INSA. Hell be speaking with INSA President Suzanne Wilson Heckenberg at 2 p.m. ET. Details here.

Space Force Deputy Chief of Space Operations for Intelligence Maj. Gen. Gagnon is visiting CSIS for a 3 p.m. ET event entitled, Implementing Competitive Endurance: Space Intelligence. Details and livestream, here.

And Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall is visiting the Atlantic Council to unpack Air and Space Force modernization at about 3:30 p.m. ET. Details and livestream, here.

News out of AUSA:

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Today's D Brief: Hamas-Israel war; US reaction; Rain arrives in ... - Defense One

The U.S. Capitol, pictured on Thursday. Congress has a lot to do, but House business is stalled without a leader. Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images hide caption

The U.S. Capitol, pictured on Thursday. Congress has a lot to do, but House business is stalled without a leader.

A revolt by a small group of hard-line Republicans has left the House without an elected speaker and, as a result, unable to do legislative business.

It spent much of last week on recess, and isn't expected to reconvene to vote on a new speaker until midweek at the earliest. It's not clear how long that process will take.

And if Republicans elect a far-right speaker, their odds of cooperating with House Democrats let alone the Democratic-controlled Senate are likely to be slim.

The delay doesn't just mean the House can't act on the items on its lengthy to-do list it also can't add new ones.

For example: The Biden administration said over the weekend that it's examining whether the chaos in the House could have an impact on any additional funding needed to help Israel, after a surprise attack by Hamas.

It's all set against the backdrop of a clock ticking down to a potential government shutdown. As it stands, Congress has 39 days to pass the 12 appropriations bills needed to keep the federal government open long-term. If it does not, the ensuing disruptions would affect millions of Americans.

The speakership saga is yet another example of how decisions at the highest levels of government have direct effects on peoples' lives, historian Heather Cox Richardson told Morning Edition.

"Sometimes you get frustrated listening to people scream at each other, but what they're screaming about is your life and what things you are allowed to do in your life," she said. "And it's a really important thing to pay attention to."

Here are some of the other things that hang in the balance, from Ukraine aid and defense spending to global health efforts and pandemic relief.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (center) walks with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., during a trip to Washington last month. Pedro Ugarte/AFP via Getty Images hide caption

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (center) walks with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., during a trip to Washington last month.

Funding for Ukraine's war is on the line and incredibly divisive.

President Biden asked Congress to authorize $24 billion for fresh military, humanitarian and economic aid for Ukraine through the end of the calendar year.

That would help its embattled military continue its slow-moving offensive against Russian troops in the east and south, and bolster the air defenses needed to limit the rolling blackouts they faced last winter.

The Pentagon has warned U.S. lawmakers that military aid for Ukraine is rapidly running out, NPR has reported. It's particularly concerned about the need to replenish air defense systems and provide additional artillery, including 155 mm shells.

Most Democrats and Senate Republicans agree on the practical and strategic importance of helping Ukraine defend itself from Russia. But more than $112 billion and a year-and-a-half into the war, many Republicans believe such support should come to an end.

House Republicans are split on the issue.

Last week, McCarthy, before he was ousted after hard-line Republicans turned on him for cooperating with Democrats, moved ahead with a short-term government spending bill that did not include aid for Ukraine.

Democrats are seeking to authorize aid through a standalone bill, and had hoped McCarthy would be willing to move it forward. Now that he's out, the path ahead is unclear.

The two candidates who have announced their speakership bids so far have differing views on Ukraine aid: House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, is against it while House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., has voted for it.

Biden says he plans to deliver a major address soon to try to persuade the American public why support for Ukraine is in the national interest.

Girls hold U.S. and Kenyan flags while waiting for the arrival of a U.S. ambassador at a site supported by PEPFAR in Nairobi, Kenya in March 2018. Ben Curtis/AP hide caption

Girls hold U.S. and Kenyan flags while waiting for the arrival of a U.S. ambassador at a site supported by PEPFAR in Nairobi, Kenya in March 2018.

PEPFAR, the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, is considered one of the most successful aid programs in U.S. history.

It's funded antiretroviral treatment for more than 20 million people across more than 50 countries since it was launched by President George W. Bush in 2003.

And it's enjoyed consistently strong bipartisan support, having been reauthorized several times over three presidential administrations.

Congress missed its Sept. 30 deadline to reauthorize it for another five-year term leaving the program intact but letting some of the requirements on its funding lapse.

"In the short term, PEPFAR will be able to continue providing the lifesaving prevention, care, and treatment services in partnership with PEPFAR-supportive countries," State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said this week, adding that Congress' failure to reauthorize it sends a message to the world that "we are backing down from our leadership in ending HIV/AIDS as a public health threat."

The popular program has recently taken a partisan turn, after Republican lawmakers accused it of promoting abortions abroad.

Those complaints center on the Biden administration's rescinding of the "Mexico City Policy," which prohibited U.S. foreign aid from going to organizations that use their own money to provide abortions, referrals and related information. (Democratic presidential administrations typically rescind the rule while Republican ones enforce it.)

U.S. law has long prohibited foreign aid money from being used for abortions. And supporters of PEPFAR say there are only so many groups it can partner with on the ground and that ending those partnerships would make it less effective.

Jen Kates of the nonprofit organization KFF told NPR that while the program's broad popularity makes it unlikely to see funding cuts, the fact that it's been caught up in abortion politics is troubling.

"It sends a potentially sad message to America and to the world that we can't move forward with things that really work and that really are about saving lives," she said.

The House and Senate have each passed their own versions of the National Defense Authorization Act, and will need to reconcile them before the end of the year. Paul J. Richards/AFP via Getty Images hide caption

The House and Senate have each passed their own versions of the National Defense Authorization Act, and will need to reconcile them before the end of the year.

The National Defense Authorization Act is an annual piece of legislation that lawmakers call a "must-pass" bill. It addresses the policies and administrative organization of the Department of Defense, and provides guidance on how military funding can be spent.

"The NDAA can be thought of as the Department of Defense's (DoD) grocery list," writes the Center for Junior Officers. "It details every program or activity that should be continued, eliminated, or created. It even has proposals for how much should be spent."

Because it comes up annually, the NDAA has become a popular tool for lawmakers to tack on unrelated legislation. And some of those amendments are making its path through Congress considerably more difficult this year.

The House narrowly passed its bill mostly along party lines in July, breaking a 60-year precedent of passing with broad bipartisan support.

Hard-line House Republicans threatened to block a vote on the measure unless McCarthy agreed to their amendments on a range of policies. It eventually passed with new stipulations including measures eliminating the Pentagon's offices of diversity, equity and inclusion and prohibiting it from reimbursing travel expenses related to abortion care for service members.

"Extreme MAGA Republicans have hijacked a bipartisan bill that is essential to our national security and taken it over and weaponized it in order to jam their extreme right-wing ideology down the throats of the American people," House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said at the time.

The Senate version, which passed later that month with much less drama, looks pretty different. Provisions include a 5.2% pay increase for military personnel and $300 million for Ukraine.

Now Congress has to reconcile the competing versions to pass an overall package it typically aims to do so by the end of the fiscal year.

The final version needs to be able to pass the Senate with 60 votes and head to Biden's desk by the end of the calendar year.

The far-right Republicans who pushed for these controversial amendments are the same ones who pushed out McCarthy. It's not clear how his successor, whoever it is, will find a path forward.

If the NDAA doesn't pass before the end of 2023, lawmakers would need to bring it up again from scratch and go through the entire process again next year.

Staff and toddlers play at a daycare in Williamson, W.Va., in September. Leah Willingham/AP hide caption

Staff and toddlers play at a daycare in Williamson, W.Va., in September.

Congress authorized trillions of dollars in pandemic relief in 2020 and 2021 to help households and industries struggling with the economic fallout.

Some of those programs have long expired like the expanded child tax credit and direct stimulus checks. But Congress could have chosen to extend others.

Several pandemic-era benefits expired on Sept. 30, at the end of the fiscal year. Among them is emergency funding for childcare providers, which allowed many workers and parents to stay afloat financially.

Without further congressional action, some 70,000 childcare programs are projected to close leaving 3.2 million children without care, according to a study by the progressive Century Foundation. It warns of the ripple effects that will have for working parents, businesses and state economies.

Supplemental pay for federal firefighters is also at stake. Congress gave federal first responders a temporary bump of $20,000 or 50%, whichever was less, retroactive to October 2021 and lasting for two years.

The hope was always that Congress would pass a permanent pay fix. While there have been bipartisan efforts in the Senate, the House has not similarly made progress.

Congress has until Nov. 17 to avoid a government shutdown. Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images hide caption

Congress has until Nov. 17 to avoid a government shutdown.

Congress hasn't passed any of the 12 appropriations bills it's supposed to enact by the start of the fiscal year on Oct. 1.

That in itself isn't unusual. It's only passed all of the required bills on time four times, most recently in 1997, according to Pew Research Center.

Congress can buy itself time by passing continuing resolutions, which extend funding for existing programs for a designated amount of time from the previous fiscal year.

The Senate had advanced all 12 of its appropriations bills by late July, the first time it had done so in five years, though has not passed any. The House has passed four.

With a government shutdown once again looming, and a to-do list growing, more than a dozen Republican senators wrote a letter to Majority Leader Chuck Schumer asking him to keep the Senate in session until it can pass all 12 bills.

The Senate was previously scheduled to be away on recess this coming week for members to do work in their home states.

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5 policy issues the leaderless House faces, from Ukraine to NDAA to ... - NPR

Three weeks in, Ukraine has made little progress toward one of its main lines of attack in southern Ukraine. Russia has a crucial ally: the unforgiving terrain of the south.

Territory reclaimed by

Ukraine since June 4

Wide-open fields leave little room for cover for Ukrainian troops, tanks and armored vehicles.

1 mile from

the front line

Fields surrounded

by tree lines

Trees line the edges of those fields, concealing Russian forces and shielding them from aerial observation.

5 miles from

the front line

Beyond natural obstacles, miles of Russian defenses trenches, tank traps and mines only allow Ukraines troops to make incremental progress at best.

10 miles from

the front line

If Ukraine can get 15 miles from the front line, to the city of Tokmak, urban warfare will pose its own challenges. Tall buildings and narrow sidestreets ensure combat will be at close quarters, and deadly.

Anti-tank trap

surrounding the city

15 miles from

the front line

Tall buildings

provide cover

20 miles from

the front line

Few expected Ukraines counteroffensive to go quickly, but other lines of attack face similar obstacles. Turning the tide will require mastering the terrain.

Three weeks in, Ukraine has made little progress toward one of its main lines of attack in southern Ukraine. Russia has a crucial ally: the unforgiving terrain of the south.

Territory reclaimed by

Ukraine since June 4

Wide-open fields leave little room for cover for Ukrainian troops, tanks and armored vehicles.

1 mile from

the front line

Fields surrounded

by tree lines

Trees line the edges of those fields, concealing Russian forces and shielding them from aerial observation.

5 miles from

the front line

Beyond natural obstacles, miles of Russian defenses trenches, tank traps and mines only allow Ukraines troops to make incremental progress, at best.

10 miles from

the front line

If Ukraine can get 15 miles from the front line, to the city of Tokmak, urban warfare will pose its own challenges. Tall buildings and narrow sidestreets ensure combat will be at close quarters, and deadly.

Anti-tank trap

surrounding the city

15 miles from

the front line

Tall buildings

provide cover

20 miles from

the front line

Few expected Ukraines counteroffensive to go quickly, but other lines of attack face similar obstacles. Turning the tide will require mastering the terrain.

Three weeks in, Ukraine has made little progress toward one of its main lines of attack in southern Ukraine. Russia has a crucial ally: the unforgiving terrain of the south.

Territory reclaimed by

Ukraine since June 4

1 mile from

the front line

Wide-open fields leave little room for cover for Ukrainian troops, tanks and armored vehicles.

Fields surrounded

by tree lines

Trees line the edges of those fields, concealing Russian forces and shielding them from aerial observation.

5 miles from

the front line

Beyond natural obstacles, miles of Russian defenses trenches, tank traps and mines only allow Ukraines troops to make incremental progress, at best.

10 miles from

the front line

Anti-tank trap

surrounding the city

If Ukraine can get 15 miles from the front line, to the city of Tokmak, urban warfare will pose its own challenges. Tall buildings and narrow sidestreets ensure combat will be at close quarters, and deadly.

15 miles from

the front line

Tall buildings

provide cover

20 miles from

the front line

Few expected Ukraines counteroffensive to go quickly, but other lines of attack face similar obstacles. Turning the tide will require mastering the terrain.

The southern offensive could determine the fate of the war, many military analysts believe. Much of Ukraine is rolling steppe and forests, but the south is especially flat, making it more dangerous for advancing troops.

Ukrainian officials have said the counteroffensive is going as planned, even though its clear, through open source accounts, that Ukrainian vehicles including recently supplied western tanks and armored personnel carriers are being damaged and destroyed. Kyivs formations have managed to take several small villages, but Ukrainian casualties are mounting.

The slow pace is most likely the result of several factors. Russian troops have shown competency fighting defensively, and Moscows formations have improved their tactics since earlier in the war.

The short-lived rebellion by the Wagner group on Saturday hasnt had an immediate effect on the front line in southern Ukraine. No Russian soldiers left their positions to come to Russias defense. But the Ukrainian military may be able to capitalize on the chaos and weakening morale to try to make some gains, according to analysts.

The terrain is a formidable obstacle in and of itself. Here is how the physical features of southern Ukraine combine to give Russian defenders an advantage.

Russians mine the roads

leading to settlements

to slow the advance

of vehicles and tanks.

De-mining vehicles

and explosives are often

used to clear land mines.

Once in the open field,

the tanks and vehicles

are not only slower, but

also more vulnerable

to attacks.

Russians mine the roads

leading to settlements

to slow the advance

of vehicles and tanks.

De-mining vehicles

and explosives are often

used to clear land mines.

Once in the open field,

the tanks and vehicles

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The Miles of Obstacles Slowing Ukraines Counteroffensive - The New York Times

Throughout the 36-hour armed rebellion that shook Russia this weekend, two officials key to waging President Vladimir V. Putins war in Ukraine were glaringly absent: Defense Minister Sergei K. Shoigu and Gen. Valery V. Gerasimov, the Kremlins top military commander.

But now, as Mr. Putin seeks to project an image of restored stability and control, he has been putting his defense minister on display, even if Mr. Shoigu has not addressed the public or even been heard speaking.

A soundless video of Mr. Shoigu visiting military positions was released on Monday morning in what some Kremlin watchers interpreted as a tacit sign of support for him. Some military bloggers were quick to point out that the video appeared to have been shot on Friday, before the armed rebellion led by Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the founder of the Wagner mercenary group.

Mr. Shoigu was also present on Monday as Mr. Putin convened a meeting of his top security chiefs. Footage played on state television showed him sitting around a table with his head bowed and his hands folded.

On Tuesday, as Mr. Putin praised his security forces in a grandly choreographed speech, Mr. Shoigu was again present, wearing his military uniform. Later, Mr. Shoigu held a meeting with his Cuban counterpart at the National Defense Control Center of Russia.

In conditions when the United States has been carrying out an illegal and illegitimate trade and economic blockade of Cuba for many decades, we are ready to help the Island of Freedom, lend a shoulder to our Cuban friends, Mr. Shoigu said, according to the Russian military channel Zvezda TV.

Mr. Shoigu and General Gerasimov are considered trusted allies of Mr. Putin, but in the past months they have largely stayed out of public view and have made only highly choreographed appearances, while Mr. Prigozhin published videos of himself on the front line amid corpses, with explosions booming in the distance.

Mr. Prigozhin has repeatedly and publicly criticized both men and complained that they have caused some of the Russian militarys problems. Other prominent Russian leaders have also criticized Mr. Shoigu and General Gerasimov.

In October, after Russias retreat from the Ukrainian city of Lyman, Ramzan Kadyrov, the strongman leader of the southern Russian republic of Chechnya who controls his own paramilitary force wrote on the Telegram messaging app that Russias top military brass had covered for an incompetent general who should now be sent to the front to wash his shame off with blood.

Andrei Guryulov, a hard-line member of Russias Parliament from the ruling United Russia party, disparaged the military leadership around the same time.

The whole problem is not on the ground, but on the Frunzenskaya embankment, where they still do not understand, and do not take ownership of the situation, he said, referring to the location of the Defense Ministry. Until something completely different appears in the General Staff, nothing will change.

Even the staunch Putin ally Aleksandr Dugin, whose daughter was killed last autumn by a car bomb, called Mr. Putin and President Aleksandr G. Lukashenko of Belarus heroes, but without naming them seemed to cast blame on supporters of Mr. Shoigu and General Gerasimov for the Wagner rebellion.

Those who made this situation possible, who committed it, and who could not prevent it, and when it all began, were unable to adequately respond, must be said goodbye to abruptly, Mr. Dugin wrote on Telegram on Monday.

Mr. Shoigu, who was a very popular minister of emergency situations before becoming defense minister in 2012, has had a long and friendly relationship with Mr. Putin. Long before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the two were regularly photographed hunting, fishing and picking mushrooms. Ahead of Mr. Putins birthday in 2019, they vacationed together in the vast Russian taiga, taking long hikes. But he has never served in the military, which has been a cause of resentment among his critics.

General Gerasimov is seen as a consummate military man, though some analysts suggested at the time of his appointment that the Kremlin was looking to streamline military decision-making and had appointed him in the hopes of getting a leader willing to carry out decisions coming directly from the top. He has not spoken in public since the revolt.

Mr. Putin may have kept both men in charge as part of his decades-long efforts to place the sprawling Russian military more under his control.

Its a Russian paradox, said Andrei Soldatov, an expert on the Russian security services.

Mr. Putin needs someone quite weak and compromised to represent the military politically, he added, because what he remembers about the recent rise of history in the last 30 years is that even the most disastrous of wars produce popular generals.

Oleg Matsnev contributed reporting.

The rest is here:

Russia-Ukraine War: Putin, Projecting Control, Tries to Contain Fallout From Mutiny - The New York Times