Category Archives: Ukraine

Russia failed to regain a seat on the U.N. Human Rights Council after a majority of countries in the General Assembly voted against it on Tuesday, a sign that support for international efforts to isolate Moscow for its war in Ukraine remains significant after nearly 20 months of fighting.

Russia lost the vote for the two council seats allocated to Eastern European countries to Albania and Bulgaria, both supporters of Ukraine. Still, Moscow managed to secure 83 votes in its favor just under half of the assembly indicating its hopes the international community will move on from the war are not entirely unfounded.

The vote was the latest test of a Western-led campaign to diplomatically isolate Moscow for its assault on Ukraine. Since the start of the full-scale invasion last year, nearly 150 countries have backed United Nations resolutions demanding that Russia unconditionally withdraw from Ukraine, and several dozen nations have imposed economic sanctions on Moscow.

But many countries have remained neutral, seeing the conflict as primarily a European and American problem, and the Russian economy has proved to be more resilient than expected, mitigating the impact of the sanctions. As the war drags on, concerns are mounting that support for Ukraine will wane, allowing Russia to potentially improve its military performance and gradually improve its place on the international stage.

Created in 2006, the Geneva-based council is regarded as the worlds most important human rights body. While it has no criminal enforcement or sanctioning powers, the council can undertake investigations that help shape the global image of countries. It can also try to influence a countrys behavior if it is deemed to have poor rights records.

Russia had been active in council proceedings, challenging resolutions critical of allies such as Syria and Belarus, and proposing amendments aimed at undercutting a wide range of rights initiatives.

But last year, less than two months after it invaded Ukraine, Russia was suspended from the council in a U.N. General Assembly vote. It was only the second country to lose its membership on the council, after Libya a diplomatic blow to Moscow and a success for American-led efforts to isolate it.

The suspension came in response to Russias indiscriminate bombings in Ukraine and killing and torture of civilians by Russian forces in the suburbs of Kyiv, Ukraines capital. Since then, rights groups, including the council itself, have documented what they say are Russian war crimes in Ukraine, such as unlawful attacks on civilians and the systematic torture of prisoners.

But with the war approaching its 20th month, support for continued aid to Ukraine is waning in several countries.

Some African nations have complained that the Wests attention has been consumed by the war in Ukraine and argued that it should refocus on issues of interest to the developing continent, including food security and climate change. There are also concerns that the United States, Ukraines leading supplier of weapons in the war, could pull back from its support of Kyiv.

Russias bid to rejoin the council appeared to be part of its strategy to capitalize on this war fatigue and drive a wedge between the West and the rest of the world over the war in Ukraine.

Vassily Nebenzia, Russias ambassador to the United Nations, has accused the United States of using the council to undermine Russia. The Human Rights Council must be protected from misuse as a tool for settling political scores and from practice of double standards, Mr. Nebenzia said at a reception last Thursday to gather support for his countrys candidacy.

Hoping to prevent Moscow from winning the vote, Western nations and rights groups campaigned to draw attention to Russias record of brutality in Ukraine.

Russian forces in Ukraine continue to commit apparent war crimes, including unlawful attacks and mistreatment of prisoners, and crimes against humanity, including torture, summary executions, and enforced disappearances against civilians, Human Rights Watch said in a statement last week.

Many countries and rights groups have expressed disbelief at Russias candidacy, arguing that its re-election to the body would be a blow to the U.N.s efforts to promote peace.

Putting the torturer of Ukrainians on a world human rights body would be a travesty of justice, Hillel Neuer, executive director of UN Watch, a Geneva-based nongovernmental organization monitoring the United Nations, said in a statement.

U.S. deputy ambassador to the U.N. Robert Wood told a Security Council meeting last week that Russias re-election to that body, while it openly continues to commit war crimes and other atrocities would be an ugly stain that would undermine the credibility of the institution and the United Nations.

The meeting was called by Ukraine after it claimed that Russia had hit a small village with a missile that killed more than 50 people one of the deadliest missile strikes of the war.

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Russia Is Denied a Seat on the U.N. Human Rights Council - The New York Times

If Ukraine is not to suffer the fate of other forever wars and become a secondary priority to a possibly wider conflict in the Middle East, or a global landscape with other pressing demands, U.S. leaders need to recast the case for staying the course on Ukraine. Messaging on Ukraine should include greater realism about the conflict, its complexities, its likely outcome and what it means for global security.

The truth is that sustaining assistance for Ukraine is already a challenge, as much psychological as political. Fatigue has kicked in among Ukraines supporters notwithstanding reassuring statements by President Joe Biden and European leaders following the revolt by congressional GOP hardliners in Washington against further financial support for the war effort. In our recent past, wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, costing trillions of dollars and thousands of American lives, increasingly came to be described as forgotten wars as they dragged on for many years.

Ukraine should not be seen in the same way. The moment is fast approaching for the Biden administration to strengthen the rationale for sustaining the war effort, by starting first with redefining the strategic commitment of the U.S. and its allies. At the NATO summit in June, it became clear that the allies have yet to provide everything Ukraine needs to significantly improve its battlefield performance. The debate continues over what weapons to supply. Allies also pushed off Ukraines NATO membership into an indefinite future.

This hesitancy is driven by genuine concerns about taking steps that could provoke an unpredictable Russian response. Nonetheless, its time for Western leaders to be more forthright and strategic in explaining what the endgame is: that military assistance to Ukraine will help not just defeat Russia now but also transform Ukraines military capabilities so it can serve as a bulwark against further Russian aggression in Europe and Central Asia. Making this case requires that Western leaders be clearer about the fact that Russia is stronger militarily and politically than many suggest, a longer-term threat to global stability and not just in Europe, and acknowledging that the war may go on for some time and cannot have a defined timetable.

Second, Western capitals should make clear to their populations that the war in Ukraine is the wake-up call for a major and accelerated reinvestment in their own military capabilities. Less than a third of NATO members are meeting the commitment to spend 2 percent of GDP on defense even as the war in Ukraine fundamentally threatens Europes security. In the U.S., supplying Ukraine with weaponry has resulted in drawdowns of stock, driving home the importance of maintaining adequate domestic production lines. Europe and the U.S. could also use the moment to reimagine the architecture of transatlantic cooperation still the bedrock of security for both in a world of shifting global alliances not favorable to either and where unexpected conflicts, like in the Middle East, could demand a concerted allied response on multiple fronts.

Third, it is now critical to present Ukrainians as they are, as a complex nation responding to an almost impossible situation. Creating unrealistic expectations and idealizing Ukraines resistance has a high likelihood of backfiring because as soon as problems surface, it will strengthen the hands of those arguing for cutbacks. As Stephen Walt has suggested, the conflict is often presented in moral terms as a battle between autocracy and democracy. Celebrating Ukraines heroism, however, cannot obscure inconvenient facts including that its progress on the battlefield has been slow; that corruption remains a problem; and that Ukraines economy and millions of refugees will need support for years to come. There will also be frictions between allies and Ukraine over battlefield strategies, and over what might constitute an acceptable outcome. These differences are part of the process and they should not be used as an excuse to cut back assistance or discourage more urgent discussion of steps that can draw Ukraine more closely into the E.U. and NATO. It may be time, in fact, for a presidential speech that reminds the American people in starker terms of the hard road ahead and what a Russian victory would mean for their security.

Making this shift will only become more difficult in coming months as voters in Europe and the U.S. question an investment of more than $200 billion that keeps climbing. The unexpected resilience of Russias frontlines and President Vladimir Putins resolve, the slow advance of Ukraines counteroffensive and questions about open-ended commitments are causing strains. Among them: Polands trade dispute with Ukraine; Hungarys with Sweden and Ukraine; and U.S. sanctions on Turkish companies supplying Russia. Slovakias voters just placed Ukraine skeptic and former prime minister, Robert Fico, in the lead to form a new government.

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Opinion | We Need to Reframe the Debate Over Ukraine - POLITICO

The American ambassador to NATO said on Tuesday that U.S. military assistance to Israel after the weekend attacks by Hamas assailants would not come at Ukraines expense.

The United States has committed around $45 billion in weapons and military aid to Ukraine since Russias full-scale invasion in February 2022, making it the single largest donor to the Ukrainian war effort.

But now, as officials and industry executives acknowledge that they are struggling to meet some of Ukraines war demands, the Biden administration is rushing to send air defenses and munitions to Israel.

That has raised questions as to whether the United States could keep pace with both conflicts without also impeding its own military readiness.

Julianne Smith, the American ambassador to NATO, sought to head off concerns ahead of meetings this week of defense ministers at the military alliances headquarters in Brussels.

We dont anticipate any challenges in that regard, Ms. Smith told journalists Tuesday, echoing earlier assurances from Washington.

She said the United States could both stay focused on our partnership and commitment to Israels security, while also meeting our commitments and promise to continue supporting Ukraine, as it defends its territory and protects all of the values that all of us hold dear here across the NATO alliance.

The Pentagon has ordered an aircraft carrier strike group to the eastern Mediterranean Sea, and officials are looking at munitions and other equipment in American stockpiles that can quickly be made available for Israel. That is part of a longstanding American agreement to provide security assistance to Israel, which benefits greatly from U.S. aid.

But a senior NATO official, Adm. Rob Bauer of the Netherlands, said last week that Western weapons stockpiles were already nearing the bottom of the barrel in calling for the defense industry to step up production. Additionally, congressional Republicans in the United States are calling for steep cuts to new aid for Ukraine, and refused to approve more spending in a budget fight.

Any funding for Ukraine should be redirected to Israel immediately, Senator Josh Hawley, Republican of Missouri, wrote on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter, on Monday.

Ms. Smith said some of the two days of meetings this week in Brussels, beginning on Wednesday, would seek additional ways to continue supplying Ukraine and speeding weapons production across NATO member states.

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U.S. Envoy to NATO Says Aid to Israel Won't Come at Ukraine's Expense - The New York Times

But whatever Israel needs, those requests will run headlong into the dysfunction and uncertainty enveloping Capitol Hill, as the House grapples with selecting a new leader and both chambers race to avoid a government shutdown just weeks away.

Those priorities will also need to compete with rush orders for Ukraine, which is already straining the capacity of companies in the U.S. and Europe to send arms to Kyiv and resupply inventories back home.

One thing that is really important in terms of the munitions in particular, and our ability to support both potentially the Israelis and the Ukrainians simultaneously, is additional funding from Congress to be able to increase our capacity, Army Secretary Christine Wormuth told reporters at the Association of the United States Army conference in Washington Monday.

Increasing the output from defense companies has been a priority for the Pentagon and the Army in particular as the U.S. raids its own warehouses to send millions of artillery rounds along with ground vehicles and guided bombs to Ukraine.

One thing that is really important in terms of the munitions in particular, and our ability to support both potentially the Israelis and the Ukrainians simultaneously, is additional funding from Congress to be able to increase our capacity, Army Secretary Christine Wormuth said. | Andrew Harnik/AP

In terms of our capacity to expand production and then to also pay for the munitions themselves, we need additional support from Congress. So I hope well see that soon, Wormuth said.

Yet she acknowledged the uncertainty on Capitol Hill, noting that were staring down the barrel of another potential government shutdown in just a few weeks.

The lack of predictability around our budget is a huge problem, particularly in light of the incredibly challenging security environment where were doing everything were doing in Ukraine, were working to keep up with the pacing challenge of China, and now we see whats happening in Israel, she said. Having predictable funding would help a lot.

With Congress not in session this week, and without a speaker of the House, the budget remains in flux.

The House is unable to pass legislation until it elects a replacement for former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), who was ousted last week. The crisis and the inability of the House to act until it picks a new speaker has even fueled some calls to reinstate McCarthy. He signaled Monday hes open to the idea.

Ukraine aid, meanwhile, remains politically toxic among House Republicans as more GOP lawmakers turn against new funding.

On the Senate side, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell on Monday endorsed speeding resources and intelligence support to Israel and several other strategic American allies. And he has generally aligned with Majority Leader Chuck Schumer on ensuring that they have the resources and money needed to defend themselves.

As we have seen in Ukraine, failure to act decisively can prolong the conflict and compound the costs of war, McConnell wrote in a Wall Street Journal op-ed. There is still time to act. Congress has the opportunity this fall to provide emergency appropriations to the Defense Department so that it can assist partners like Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan, as well as invest in our own military capabilities.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the U.S. has rushed munitions, rockets, drones, artillery, air defense and tanks to the fight, and is training Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16s. More equipment has been ordered, but the U.S. also needs to restock its shelves.

In his column, McConnell underscored the importance of funding the expansion and modernization of weapons inventories alongside investing in the defense industrial base.

While war is expensive, he wrote, failure costs more.

Congress has left President Joe Bidens latest $24 billion request for Ukraine largely untouched since the administration sent it to Congress in August. Attempts to attach several billion dollars as part of a government funding patch in late September came up short.

The massive proposal included $9.5 billion for the Pentagon to arm Ukraine and build back stocks of weapons and equipment that were sent to Ukraine, such as artillery shells and missiles, with $4.5 billion of that earmarked to replenish U.S. inventories.

Bipartisan momentum to quickly provide funding and aid for Israel could be an opportunity to unjam at least part of Bidens request for Ukraine by pairing funding for the two crises. But it could also prove politically perilous because House Republicans increasingly oppose more money for Kyiv.

Even if Congress approves more money for Israel, its still an open question whether the industrial base already straining from the effort to arm Ukraine can deliver for Tel Aviv over the long term.

The countries need different types of weapons, for the most part. Israel is expected to rely heavily on precision air-to-ground munitions fired from F-16 and F-35 fighter jets and Apache helicopters, none of which is in the Ukrainian arsenal. The issue of 155mm artillery shells, which both countries desperately need, will likely loom large, however.

Andrew Zhang contributed to this report.

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Army to Congress: Do your job so we can help Israel and Ukraine - POLITICO

WASHINGTON The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) has committed a $250 million loan to MHP SE to support the Ukrainian poultry and grain producers efforts to mitigate the effects of Russias war against Ukraine. The funds would be used to refinance maturing debt and support the continued maintenance and war-related expenditures of its poultry and grain production. The loan would also support the companys ability to increase food production and storage and support its export capacity, while mitigating the devastating effects of food insecurity exacerbated by the war.

Improving food security is a priority for DFC, particularly as Russian aggression against Ukraine has endangered global agricultural supply chains and put millions at risk for malnutrition and hunger. As one of the top global exporters of wheat, corn, barley, and poultry, Ukraines ability to supply markets with critical staples is vital to the health and stability of many nations, said DFC CEO Scott Nathan. DFC is open for business in Ukraine and working with the private sector to advance ongoing efforts to operate in the face of Russias unjustified war. DFC continues to seek opportunities to invest in Ukraines private sector now and into the future.

The loan to MHP SE would provide the company with funds to assist in the companys refinancing needs for existing debt as well as capital to support improvements to facilities, including increased storage capacity and installation of electrical backups. DFCs loan would also support the companys transportation operations, increasing the companys ability to transport goods via truck over land. These investments would support MHP SEs production and export capacity.

As part of DFCs broader efforts to support the Ukrainian private sector, DFC is mobilizing financing to support Ukraines agricultural supply chain to ensure that the people of Ukraine can feed themselves and their families. DFCs investment will help build more resilient food systems to mitigate against future food shocks.

DFC has committed $425 million in new transactions in Ukraine over the last year across a variety of sectors and all of its lines of business, including through equity investments, political risk insurance, debt financing, and technical assistance.

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The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) partners with the private sector to finance solutions to the most critical challenges facing the developing world today. We invest across sectors including energy, healthcare, infrastructure, agriculture, and small business and financial services. DFC investments adhere to high standards and respect the environment, human rights, and worker rights.

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DFC Commits $250 Million to Strengthen Food Security in Ukraine - DFC

Footage shared with openDemocracy by Borgese appears to show his unit preparing a small boat loaded with jet skis. Borgese, the commander, is a member of the ultra-conservative Christian Bratstvo battalion. The latter is the military wing of Ukraines Bratstvo political party, a small unelected group with a perplexing history of alliances and of working with the Ukrainian security services.

Ukrainian military intelligence has said in public statements that Bratstvo and another battalion, Stuhna, have participated in the raids under its command. The reason for the amalgamation, according to Borgese, is that both have selected people who are prepared for martyrdom.

Ukraines military intelligence reported losses during the second raid into Crimea conducted on 4 October, but gave no indication of their scale. The head of Russian-occupied Crimea Sergey Aksyonov thanked the Russian border services on Telegram for apprehending one of the group and later a Russian military blogger claimed that Crimean authorities discovered a body in a wetsuit that was killed duirng a scirmish.

Borgese said Ukraines military maritime experts initially dismissed the idea of using jet skis, insisting that the small boats carrying the jet skis and fuel would be detected. But, he believes, these operations have disproved their belief that Russia knows and sees everything in the Black Sea.

The Ukrainian raid on a Russian-occupied off-shore oil facility in mid-September, said Borgese, was a practice run designed to show the operation was possible and see what could go wrong. Then came Crimea.

The benefit of using a jet ski, according to Borgese, is that it cannot be detected by Russian radar systems, which are designed for ships and do not set off sea mines again designed for ships. The Ukrainian military had already seen that Russian coastguards and planes were unable to target the mined drones that they once used against the Crimean bridge. Another factor, he noted, was that good quality jet skis travelling at a low speed are relatively quiet.

Borgese also referred to a video in which Russian troops appeared to be trying unsuccessfully to hit a Ukrainian remotely-operated jet ski loaded with explosives using machine gun fire.

These special operations are not Ukraines first surprise forays into enemy territory. Bratstvo with Borgese, as well as other Ukrainian units, have also been involved in operations across the Dnipro river in the southern Kherson region, as well as into Russias Belgorod region.

The operations across the Dnipro into Russian-occupied territory were in some ways more dangerous than Crimea as Russian forces have positions all along the riverbank, Borgese said. Ukraine has since established a tiny foothold on the eastern, otherwise Russian-controlled bank of the Dnipro.

That remains shrouded in secrecy, however, as Ukraines military activities on Khersons riverbanks are a matter of strict military censorship, one Ukrainian brigadier general told openDemocracy on condition of anonymity.

While Ukraine was preparing troops for a second round of the counter offensive, and awaiting western equipment, it is now no secret that Russia was preparing its defensive lines with mines and adapting its techniques for a long war. This means Ukraine, according to analysts, needs to be more creative if it is to succeed.

Ukraines forces have edged the Russian forces back at several points in the south, south-east and east this summer a turn from Ukraines retreats around Soledar and Bakhmut in the east over the winter, but not the big break Ukraine hoped for. The line has moved a few kilometres in places and not at all elsewhere.

If Ukraine succeeds in thwarting Russias ability to use Crimea, it would leave Russia with only one supply route for its forces on the southern and south-western frontline through mainland Russia. This would make it much, much harder for Russian forces, said OBrien, professor of strategic studies at St Andrews University.

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What Ukraines operation against Russian-annexed Crimea means ... - openDemocracy

The Russian authorities are recruiting foreigners for the war in Ukraine, despite Putins statement that the Kremlin does not need people from outside. In particular, citizens of Serbia and other Balkan countries are being recruited into the occupying army. About 100 people sided with the aggressor country. Currently, the scheme for recruiting mercenaries is frozen, the BBC Russia reported.

Mercenaries from Serbia sign contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense and go to war as part of the 106th Airborne Division.

We are now officially signing a contract with the Ministry of Defense, we are going through the Krasnogorsk military commission, said Serbian citizen Davor Savicic, who formed a platoon of Serbs as part of the Wagner group in 2014.

Serbs living on the territory of Russia participate in recruitment. In particular, Savicic promised to form a full-fledged Serbian brigade as part of the 106th Airborne Division by the fall of 2023. However, it was not possible to implement the plan. It should be noted that mercenary is a criminal offense in Serbia.

Apart from that, the Russians have also recruited more than 100 Cuban citizens since the beginning of the year, the Institute for the Study of War said. Foreigners joined the same 106th division of the Airborne Forces of Russia in the summer. This indicates that the 106th Airborne Division probably suffered heavy losses from fighting in Ukraine, the analysts say.

At the same time, Russia continues to mobilize Ukrainians who received a passport from the Russian Federation in the temporarily occupied territories. Russian authorities are threatening civilians with Russian passports eligible for conscription with fines and detention for not appearing. Russian authorities and occupation administrations continue to conduct forced passportization and mobilization in occupied Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War said.

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Russia recruits Serbs and Cubans for war in Ukraine - Ukrainian World Congress

Leaders of several European Union countries at a summit meeting in Granada, Spain, on Friday.Credit...Miguel Angel Molina/EPA, via Shutterstock

European Union leaders on Friday wrestled with how the bloc would have to adjust if it added Ukraine as a member, at a summit meeting in Spain that was shadowed by questions about the Wests long-term support for Kyivs war effort against Russia.

Ukraine was given a path to membership last year, beginning a yearslong process of reforms to bring Ukraine in line with E.U. regulations. President Volodymyr Zelensky, as well as leaders of Poland and Baltic States, have pushed for speeding it up, but the blocs leaders have said there is no fast track to membership.

Next month, the European Commission, the blocs executive arm, is expected to publish an assessment of Kyivs efforts to align with E.U. rules, and national leaders will decide in December whether to open membership negotiations with Ukraine.

Looking ahead to the prospect of a further enlarged Union, both the E.U. and future Member States need to be ready, the heads of E.U. governments said in a statement after the meeting. Aspiring members need to step up their reform efforts, notably in the area of rule of law, the statement said. The Union needs to lay the necessary internal groundwork and reforms.

If Ukraine becomes a member, it would significantly transform the structure of the blocs budget. Some Eastern European nations would be required to pay more than they receive in subsidies.

There are many questions, doubts, Viktor Orban of Hungary said about the prospect of Ukraine joining the bloc. First, we need to know how much money we are speaking about.

The informal talks this week in Granada, Spain, where the leaders also discussed migration and economic autonomy, were a preparation for formal meetings of the blocs leaders later this year.

Even as talks over Ukraines membership continued, E.U. nations were reckoning with the economic and political costs of continuing to send military aid to the country, especially as political turmoil in Congress threatened American aid.

E.U. leaders are expected to discuss a 50 billion euro aid package for Ukraine at a summit later this month in Brussels, but they already indicated that they would not be able to fill the gap in support left by the United States should Congress fail to vote for more aid.

Moscows full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year has forced the 27-nation bloc to consider further expanding its ranks, but joining is a long and painstaking process that usually takes around a decade, even for nations not at war.

With this war by Russia against Ukraine, it is not possible anymore to procrastinate, Charles Michel, the president of the European Council, said on Friday, referring to enlarging the bloc. It doesnt mean that its going to be easy, because across the European Union there are different opinions and different sensitivities.

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Pressure Grows on Germany to Give Ukraine Long-Range Missiles - The New York Times

The war in Ukraine has gouged a scar in the landscape so vast, that it's easily visible from space.

A new analysis by NASA's Harvest program and shared exclusively with NPR shows that between 5.2 and 6.9 million acres (2.1-2.8 million hectares) of prime farmland have been abandoned as a result of the war since 2021. The abandoned fields represent between 6.5 and 8.5% of Ukraine's total cropland.

The losses represent "a massive amount of land," says Inbal Becker-Reshef, the program director for NASA Harvest and a research professor at the University of Maryland and the University of Strasbourg in France. Much of the fallow land lies in a vast swath along the front line of the war, while other fields are in areas recently retaken by Ukrainian forces, she says.

The scar left by the fighting is easily visible in satellite imagery from the commercial company Planet. Paradoxically, the untended farmland is still green because it has filled with weeds and other plants. Harvested plots mostly appear brown in the autumn.

Becker-Reshef says that while overall, Ukraine has been able to maintain its agricultural output this year, the abandoned fields have already cost the nation around $2 billion in lost crops. Moreover, she predicts the fighting will likely hinder Ukraine's output for many years to come. As the losses compound over time, "that cost will be much, much higher," she says.

Ukraine is a major agricultural producer, supplying roughly 9% of the world's wheat exports. The front line in the conflict winds through of some of the nation's most fertile fields. After the first year of the war, much of that line has been hardened with trenches, anti-tank barriers, and landmines all of which affect farmers near the front.

But the NASA-backed researchers say that perhaps the largest obstacle to farming is the vast amount of artillery ammunition being lobbed by each side towards the other.

Looking at where the harvest stops, "it is a real, stunningly sharp edge," says Josef Wagner, a graduate student at the University of Strasbourg who's working on the Harvest team. "When you look at the images, you can draw the line where it's cultivated and where it's not." Often, he thinks that line is determined by whether a field is in the range of enemy shelling.

Ukrainian soldiers patrol with a howitzer near the frontline on July 01, 2023. Artillery fire is believed to be a major reason farmers are abandoning their fields. Ercin Erturk/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images hide caption

Ukrainian soldiers patrol with a howitzer near the frontline on July 01, 2023. Artillery fire is believed to be a major reason farmers are abandoning their fields.

Precise estimates of how much artillery ammunition has been used in the war so far are hard to come by, but Russian and Ukrainian forces are firing thousands of rounds a day, according to Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Kofman says that there are multiple reasons why artillery has featured so heavily in the war. Part of the issue is that strong air defenses on both sides of the line prevent aircraft from playing a role in the fighting.

"In an environment where neither side is able to obtain air superiority, then the way of fighting is going to very heavily privilege artillery," he says. In addition, both Russia and Ukraine's armies have their roots in the Soviet Union, which heavily favored the use of artillery in military maneuvers.

Regardless of the precise cultural and tactical reasons, the artillery war in Ukraine is unlike other recent conflicts. America's wars in Iraq and Afghanistan saw the use of air-launched weapons and roadside bombs, both of which took an enormous toll in terms of human life. But for the most part, those weapons were used on selected targets, usually in populated areas.

In the case of Ukraine, much of the ordnance is being fired over vast sections of rural land. As a result, shells are landing in random fields throughout the countryside.

"The mass of metal flying each way is phenomenal," says Patrick Hinton, an officer in the British Army's Royal Artillery and a recent visiting fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based defense think tank.

The amount of artillery being expended is so great that both nations are seeking additional stocks: Ukraine has sought munitions from the West, including controversial "cluster munitions", while Russia is reportedly talking to Iran and North Korea about supplying it with more shells.

World War I craters near the ruined village of Fleury devant Douaumont, France. More than a century after the fighting, the area is still considered unsafe for habitation. Virginia Mayo/AP hide caption

World War I craters near the ruined village of Fleury devant Douaumont, France. More than a century after the fighting, the area is still considered unsafe for habitation.

The situation harkens back to the world wars of the previous century, Hinton says. And those wars may provide the best hints of what the long-term consequences will be. More than a century after some of the battles were fought, unexploded shells and bombs are regularly being found in places like Flanders, Belgium.

"These can lay in the ground for over a hundred years and still be lethal," says Iain Overton, the executive director of Action on Armed Violence, a British non-profit that focuses on the harm caused by explosive weapons.

And when shells explode correctly they can make an even bigger mess spraying heavy metals and toxic chemicals across the fields on which they land. The contaminants "can get into the food chain and cause some very long-term and very real consequences to the quality of the food Ukraine is producing," Overton says.

In the case of previous wars, the impacts have been profound. Parts of northeastern France are still uninhabitable because of concentrated shelling in the First World War. The land, known as the "Zone Rouge", remains peppered with unexploded ordnance and toxic metals.

The intensity of the artillery fire in Ukraine is a far cry from WWI, where well over a billion shells were expended. Still, Overton says, the amount of unexploded ordnance, land mines, and toxic pollution in farmland along the front line will make returning those fields to production a "gargantuan task."

"There is a very-long term challenge for the Ukrainians," he says.

A tractor collects straw on a field in a private farm in Zhurivka, Kyiv region, Ukraine, Thursday, Aug. 10, 2023. Despite losing a significant amount of cropland, Ukrainian farmers have managed to maintain production. Efrem Lukatsky/AP hide caption

A tractor collects straw on a field in a private farm in Zhurivka, Kyiv region, Ukraine, Thursday, Aug. 10, 2023. Despite losing a significant amount of cropland, Ukrainian farmers have managed to maintain production.

Despite losing some of their best cropland to the war, Ukraine's farmers have managed to keep producing, the NASA Harvest analysis shows.

In part that's because Ukraine had a good summer in terms of weather and rainfall. "While we've seen some decrease in planted areas, we've seen increases in yields," Becker-Reshef says. In addition, the analysis showed a dramatic increase in oilseed crops, such as rapeseed and sunflower oil.

Becker-Reshef believes the decision to shift to these crops is in part due to the fact they are easier to grow than wheat, and also because the oil, which is liquid, is easier to export through land corridors. Wheat, by contrast, has been shipped primarily through ports that have been attacked in recent months by Russia.

As the war wears on, Becker-Reshef thinks it will be harder and harder for Ukraine to maintain its agricultural production. The destruction of the Kakhovka Dam earlier this year drained a massive reservoir and left nearly a thousand miles of irrigation channels without a source of water. "We're seeing a lot less irrigation this summer relative to even last year," she says." Basically all the canals have dried out." Those canals mainly supply water to Russian-occupied Ukraine.

Still, she says, Ukrainian farmers have demonstrated incredible resilience. They continue to farm "whatever they can, wherever they can."

"I think we expect Ukraine to come out of this and to be able to rebuild and recover," she says. "But at a very large expense."

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The bruising artillery battle in Ukraine has left a scar that is visible ... - NPR

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Military briefing: the advance of Ukraine's 'mosquito navy' - Financial Times