Category Archives: Democrat

EL PASO, Texas (KTSM) Governor Greg Abbott has said that the Democrat party no longer represents the values of the people in South Texas saying the Democrats are missing the mark on quite a few issues, including border security.

In an exclusive interview, Governor Abbott talked about Texas State Representative Ryan Guillen who just last week moved from the Democrat party into the Republican party. Abbott saying, at the news conference in which Guillen made the switch, that the move was proof that people were growing frustrated with the DNCs radical ideology, failing border policies and over-reaching mandates. Governor Abbott also explained his statement regarding the policies of the Democrat party,

What I was saying was actually just a repeat that was actually said by a Democrat State Representative in the Rio Grande Valley who switched to the Republican party earlier this week and those were his words. He said that the values of the Democrat party in South Texas really no longer represents the needs of the people in South Texas. Because the people of South Texas they do want border security not open border policies. The people of South Texas they do want to support their police officers, they do believe in their 2nd amendment rights and the list goes on. The progressive ideology that the Democrat party has adopted is inconsistent with the needs of the people who live in South Texas.

Exclusive: Gov. Greg Abbott talks El Paso, job growth Texas will remain the economic engine of the U.S.

Governor Abbotts campaign said they have more cash on hand than any other statewide candidate in Texas history, with more than $55 million dollars.

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Exclusive: Gov Greg Abbott The Democrat party no longer represents the values of South Texas - KTSM 9 News

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A member of a South Texas family that owns one of the largest ranches in the country is seeking the Democratic nomination for Texas land commissioner, the statewide office overseeing the Alamos operations and the states natural disaster recovery efforts.

The seat will be open during the 2022 election as Republican incumbent George P. Bush runs for attorney general.

Jay Kleberg, an Austin-based conservationist whose family owns the sprawling King Ranch in Kingsville, said in an interview with The Texas Tribune on Wednesday that his campaign will focus on fighting climate change, managing the states disaster recovery and improving benefits for veterans.

Its the responsibility of the land commissioner to combat climate change and it seems like a bold statement in Texas politics right now, but weve gotta follow the science, Kleberg said.

The Texas General Land Office manages 13 million acres of public lands and mineral rights across the state. As a result, Kleberg said the office has the ability to diversify its portfolio of renewables and lead the state toward a low-emission future.

Kleberg formerly served as associate director of the Texas Parks and Wildlife Foundation, the nonprofit partner of the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department.

More recently, he has worked as a producer for the upcoming film Deep in the Heart, which the candidate characterized as a Planet Earth for Texas that will feature Texan actor Matthew McConaughey as the narrator. Kleberg also serves as co-founder of Explore Ranches, a company that specializes in upscale ranch rentals across the state.

Kleberg told the Tribune that his experience of being raised on King Ranch which now covers more than 800,000 acres of land taught him the value of hard work and respect for not just the land but for the people, and for people that live off that land.

That gave me a real sense of the fact that our individual freedoms dont negate our responsibilities to each other, he said.

The states land commissioner runs the General Land Office, the agency that also manages the states publicly owned land, oversees investments for public education and doles out benefits to Texas veterans.

Bush, who has overseen the state agency since 2015, announced earlier this year he would not seek reelection so he can challenge fellow Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in next years primary. During his tenure, Bush has fielded criticism over his offices handling of the Alamo redevelopment project and disbursing federal relief funds for Hurricane Harvey recovery.

At least four Republicans, including state Sen. Dawn Buckingham of Lakeway who has the endorsement of former President Donald Trump and San Antonio activist Weston Martinez, have said they are running to replace Bush. And at least three Democrats have said they are also running for the job.

Lamenting how the General Land Office can be used as a stepping stone, Kleberg said Buckingham seems focused on issues that are not directly under the purview of the office, like border security.

If Kleberg is the Democratic nominee, he said, I think the contrast is that were actually gonna be talking about this office and the impact it can have on Texans of all walks of life.

But the eventual Democratic nominee may face uphill odds. Miguel Suazo, an Austin-based oil and gas attorney who was the Democratic nominee for land commissioner in 2018, lost to Bush by about 10 percentage points.

Kleberg said he is optimistic, pointing to his experience with the responsibilities of the office and saying conservation brings a lot of people together. And he suggested his bid would be well-funded, noting he has been able to raise over $100 million for conservation efforts.

This will not be Klebergs first bid for public office. In 2010, Kleberg ran as a Republican for the El Paso-area Texas House District 78, which is currently represented by state Rep. Joe Moody, D-El Paso. But Kleberg fell short in the three-way GOP primary that year to Dee Margo, who unseated Moody in the November general election.

Kleberg, asked Wednesday about his party switch, said that while he considers himself a Texan first he feels strong about running as a Democrat and is looking forward to the race.

Texas deserves a representation that believes in combating climate change and bringing people together not dividing them, he said.

Disclosure: Texas General Land Office and Texas Parks And Wildlife Department have been financial supporters of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune's journalism. Find a complete list of them here.

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Jay Kleberg, King Ranch scion and conservationist, to run for land commissioner as a Democrat - The Texas Tribune

Sen. Jon Tester of Montana on Sunday said Democrats are going to have to be open to compromise if they hope to unify the party and pass President Bidens roughly $2 trillion social safety net bill through the upper chamber.

The spotlight shifted to the Senate on Friday after the House narrowly passed the Build Back Better bill on a party-line vote, overcoming unanimous opposition from Republicans.

I think people need to be open to compromise, Mr. Tester said on NBCs Meet the Press. We dont all see the world the same way.

That was on display in recent weeks as House Democrats struggled mightily to cobble together a bill to please the various wings of the party.

After lots of arm-twisting and backroom negotiations, the bill passed on a 220-to-213 vote.

The vote came after Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, California Republican, delivered an 8-hour and 32-minute speech against the bill, making it the longest continuous House speech in modern history.

Rep. Jared Golden of Maine was the only Democrat to vote against the bill.

The proposal faces an uncertain future in the 50-50 Senate, where Vice President Kamala Harris holds the tie-breaking vote.

Sens. Joe Manchin III of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona have refused to sign off on the measure and infuriated liberal progressives by raising concerns about the size and scope of the tax-and-spend plan.

Mr. Biden and his allies have emphasized that the package represents a historic investment in families. The House bill has provisions aimed at curbing climate change and cutting prescription drug costs, in addition to new spending on education and child care.

It includes four weeks of paid family leave, which Mr. Manchin has been reluctant to support. It also includes new taxes on high-income earners and corporations.

Still, Sen. Kirsten E. Gillibrand said Sunday on CBS Face the Nation that Mr. Manchin has signaled he is open to compromise on paid family leave and said she hopes he will come around.

Hes in the drivers seat on how to pay for these proposals, the New York Democrat said.

Senate Republicans are unified against the proposal, meaning that Democrats will need every member of their conference to support the bill in order to pass it through the Senate.

Republicans warn the massive spending plan will worsen inflation, making it harder for lower- to middle-class families to make ends meet.

Concerns over inflation have weakened Mr. Biden, according to polls that show his approval rating has been on a downward trajectory.

A CBS News poll released Sunday found that two-thirds of adults nationwide have a negative view of the economy and that 67% of respondents disapprove of the way Mr. Biden has handled inflation.

On Sunday, Brian Deese, director of the National Economic Council, slapped down the idea that the social safety net bill will increase inflation.

There is no question inflation is high and its affecting American consumers and it is affecting their outlook, but that is actually why we need to move on this Build Back Better bill right now, Mr. Deese said on Fox News on Sunday. Experts across the board have looked at it and concluded that it wont increase inflation because it is paid for. When you pay for investments you dont actually add aggregate demand to the economy.

Mr. Deese said Fitch Ratings and Moodys Investors Service have said the bill will not add to inflation and dismissed the criticism that the proposal relies on budget gimmicks.

Mr. Biden and his allies are hoping he will get a political boost from the $1 trillion infrastructure bill he signed into law last week, and another jolt if Democrats can pass his social safety net bill.

The Democrat-controlled House voted to approve the more than 2,000-page bill only hours after the Congressional Budget Office determined it will add upwards of $367 billion to the federal deficit.

The vote came shortly after the CBO, a nonpartisan federal agency, released a report showing it would add more than $367 billion to the federal deficit over the next 10 years.

Mr. Biden has said it would cost zero dollars.

Gov. Chris Sununu of New Hampshire on Sunday said nobody buys the argument that the multitrillion package will not cost taxpayers anything.

Washington doesnt seem to understand the concept of a budget, but somebody has to pay for this, he said on CNNs State of the Union. Its not just you and me. Its our kids and grandkids.

Mr. Tester, meanwhile, said he is optimistic that Democrats can pass Mr. Bidens plan.

I think if we compromise like we did in the bipartisan infrastructure package where we had five Democrats and five Republicans that argued, and fought, and came to a bill that would work, I think its the same thing within the 50 Democrats, too, he said. So lets negotiate and lets come up with a bill that lowers costs for families, and cuts taxes, and gets things done to help move this economy forward so we can stay the premier power in the world.

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Fate of Democrats' $2 trillion tax-and-spend wish list in limbo in Senate - Washington Times

by: TheRealDeal Staff via Nexstar Media Wire

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(TheRealDeal) Where you live and whom you vote for have never been moreclosely tied. Mappedelection resultsover the past few decades show the red middle has grown redder and the blue coasts bluer.

But when it comes to settling down in another partys territory, areportby apartment-listing site Zumper shows registered Republicans are more liberal about living among Democrats than the other way around with one caveat.

To conduct the survey, Zumper asked 1,500 people from across the country, Would you move to an area that did not match your political leaning?

Democrats were less inclined than Republicans to lay down roots among people on the other end of the politician spectrum, as 40 percent said they would not move to a red area and only 27 percent said they would.

Republicans, however, were game to mix with the left, with 43 percent of GOP voters saying they would move to an area that did not match their politics and 36 percent saying they would not.Read more

Jeff Andrews, report author and data analyst at Zumper, said Republicans openness to liberal enclaves makes more sense if you split them into two camps upper-middle-class and wealthy constituents who prize low regulation in one, and low-income, rural voters who favor identity politics in the other.

A wealthy Republican who works in finance might prefer to live in New York City, despite its blue leaning, Andrews said, pointing to job location and the perks of living in a cultural hub as factors. Plus, higher earners could afford to relocate.

The lasting popularity of Manhattans Metropolitan Republican Club speaks to that cohorts existence. Just last month, the group sold out its 118th annual dinner honoring Forbes Editor-in-Chief Steve Forbes with the Ronald Reagan Award in celebration of the 40th anniversary of the Reagan Tax Cuts.

The Silk Stocking District on the Upper East Side is also routinely the top-donating area to Republican campaigns.

Similarly, in San Francisco, where just over 6 percent of voters are registered as Republicans, some ballots were cast for Donald Trump in 2016. The votes were concentrated in the citys richest areas Pacific Heightsand Sea Cliff, among them, the San Francisco examinerreported.

In New York, there are likewise Republican pockets within the cities tight-knit communities, such as Brooklyns Hasidic and Russian Jewish enclaves. Brighton and Manhattan Beachelected a Republican City Council memberthis year for the first time this century.

Still, Republican openness to relocation knows some bounds, the report found. For many, Covid-19 protocols were a critical catch.

While 86 percent of Democrats said they would move to an area with a mask mandate, less than half of Republicans said the same. Aversions to vaccine mandates held similar sway. Just over one-third of Republicans said they would move somewhere that had vaccination requirements; 82 percent of Democrats said they would.

Considering the strict vaccine mandates for certain jobs and venues in San Francisco, Los Angeles andNew York, it seems unlikely that the three cities will see an influx of Republicans anytime soon.

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Republicans more willing to live among Democrats than vice versa, survey says - fox4kc.com

Stronger Republican involvement could hasten a snowball effect on Capitol Hill, where Democrats lead the charge on decriminalization but lack results. It could also chip away at Democrats ability to use cannabis legalization to excite progressives and younger voters as the midterms approach.

When the culture becomes more accepting of something, even the most resistant groups get tugged along, said Dan Judy, vice president of North Star Opinion Research, which focuses on Republican politics. I don't want to directly conflate marijuana legalization with something like gay marriage, but I think there's a similar dynamic at play.

Earlier this year, North Dakotas GOP-dominated House passed a marijuana legalization bill introduced by two Republican lawmakers the first adult-use legalization bill to pass in a Republican-dominated chamber. And Mace's bill marks the first time a Republican has proposed federal legislation to decriminalize cannabis, expunge certain cannabis convictions and tax and regulate the industry.

As Republicans wade into the weed group chat, they are bringing their principles, constituents and special interest groups. When Mace introduced her bill on a freezing day on the House triangle, she was surrounded at the podium not by Drug Policy Alliance and the National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws, but by veterans groups, medical marijuana parents, cannabis industry lobbyists and Koch-backed Americans For Prosperity.

Many GOP proposals include lower taxes and a less regulatory approach than Democratic-led bills, while often maintaining elements popular among most voters, like the expungement of nonviolent cannabis convictions.

I tried to be very thoughtful about what I put in the bill that would appeal to Democrats and Republicans, Mace said in an interview on Monday. Which is why criminal justice reform is part of it. It's why the excise tax is low.

The motivations bringing Republicans to the table are also changing.

Former Capitol Hill cannabis advocates like Sen. Cory Gardner (R-Colo.) and Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-Calif.) advocated primarily for their state legalization programs, but Mace comes from South Carolina a state with no medical or recreational cannabis program. She joins other GOP lawmakers who are pushing for federal policy to move beyond their own states they include Reps. Matt Gaetz and Brian Mast of Florida, where only medical marijuana is legal, and libertarian-leaning Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, which does not yet have a medical program.

Every two years, you get a new crop of members from both parties, but certainly from the Republican Party, who don't have to defend the drug war and they dont have to prop it up, said cannabis advocate and former Maryland GOP state delegate Don Murphy. They are free to vote their conscience.

Deep divisions remain within the Republican Party, however. After Mace announced her bill, the South Carolina GOP was quick to condemn it saying they were "unequivocally" against Mace's bill. "Since this will have widespread negative impacts, from rising crime, violence, and mental health issues in children, I think its a safe bet to say most Republicans will be against it too, South Carolina GOP Chair Drew McKissick said in a statement.

Six in 10 younger GOP voters what Pew described as the Ambivalent Right in a recent report believe marijuana should be legal for medical and recreational use, but older, educated Republicans and Christian conservatives do not feel the same way.

The GOP split came to a head over the past year in South Dakota. Fifty-four percent of voters approved a ballot measure that legalized recreational marijuana last November in a state where only 27 percent of voters were registered Democrats. Despite support from voters, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem a rising Republican star supported a court challenge that has tied up the legalization measure since its passage. But while the state waits on a court decision, efforts to legalize marijuana at the ballot box and in the legislature are moving forward in the meantime.

[Support] is growing because the people voted it in, said South Dakota Republican Rep. Hugh Bartels, who led the adult-use marijuana study subcommittee over the summer.

Marijuana advocates are gearing up now to put legalization initiatives on the 2022 ballot in deep red states like Missouri, Idaho and Wyoming. The fact that more GOP-leaning voters are supportive of marijuana reform means lawmakers are increasingly out of step with their constituents a fact some in politics are catching on to.

We're now in a race, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) said in an interview the week after the 2020 election. If Republicans beat Democrats on marijuana legalization, they're just one or two of those kinds of social issues away from totally just eroding a ton of goodwill that Democrats are trying to build with voters.

Republicans who support legalization are viewing the issue through the prism of states' rights, personal freedom, job creation and tax revenue. Many libertarian-leaning Republicans are early supporters of cannabis policy reform, arguing that arresting people for using cannabis is a violation of personal liberties.

Some Republicans also cite the racial disparities in marijuana arrests as a reason to fix federal law though Democrats focus more strongly on criminal justice reform on the whole. And, as is the case for Democrats, the shift is often generational: Texas Young Republicans announced they support marijuana decriminalization back in 2015.

The shift within the GOP at times is less about lawmakers own beliefs about marijuana and more about how much the public has shifted on the subject. Bill sponsors in North Dakota, for example, said they were personally opposed to marijuana, but introduced the bill anyways to head off the possibility of a ballot initiative that would legalize marijuana through the constitution especially after South Dakota voters approved legalization in 2020.

Bartels himself is not a real fan of marijuana, but a draft legalization proposal is going to get a good solid pitch from me in the House next session, he said. He's satisfied with how the draft bill handles his chief concerns of public safety and youth use. Its a regulation bill, not an industry-leaning bill, he said.

A lack of motivation to fight cannabis legalization is also a major factor, Judy said. White, conservative evangelicals are one of the largest constituencies against legalization, for example but most of them are not handing out pamphlets or going door to door campaigning against ballot measures.

There's definitely a strong sense in a lot of places that the train is leaving the station, Judy said.

Marijuana reform is poised to make gains in red states now that so many blue states have already legalized it. Advocates are trying to place adult-use legalization initiatives on the 2022 ballot in Arkansas, Oklahoma and Missouri. Supporters in Wyoming and Idaho are collecting signatures for medical marijuana and decriminalization measures after state lawmakers have punted on the issue.

And one big benefit stands out for Republicans when and where they decide to move forward with legalization: they can tax and regulate the industry in their own way.

In Washington, though Republicans have taken some big steps recently, they do not have control of either house of Congress. Democrats are likely to continue to focus on moving Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumers decriminalization bill, which has a high tax rate and social equity grant programs that deter conservatives.

But Republicans are one step closer to reaching a compromise with Democrats on the issue if Democrats are willing to negotiate. Leaders such as Steve Hawkins, president of the U.S. Cannabis Council, hope that Maces bill will broaden the pool of support.

This is an issue where there's not a ton of partisan division, Judy said. In this day and age, to find any issues with majority bipartisan support is like finding a unicorn.

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New GOP weed approach: Feds must get out of the way - Politico

It is a standard polling question that will probably be asked a million times over the next year: If the election were being held today, would you vote for ?

These days, any partisan Democrat hearing that question might be tempted to shout, Thank God, the election isnt being held today. Weve got time. Weve got time.

Democratic hopes right now are probably at their lowest ebb since the heady days of 2018 when the party took back the House and nurtured the dream that Donald Trump had driven every college-educated voter aside from Ted Cruz out of the Republican Party.

Ten months ago, Joe Biden took office declaring, At this hour, my friends, democracy has prevailed. But these days, Republicans have deliberately become the party of amnesia over Jan. 6 as Trump spreads his conspiratorial bile about a stolen election.

Ten months ago, even at the depths of the pandemic, there was hope that vaccines, science and a steady hand in Washington would soon defeat COVID-19. These days, we have come to grips with the reality that during the pandemic the true enemy is us. Anti-vax sentiment as dangerous and irresponsible as it may be has become a major strand in far-right Republican rhetoric.

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With Democrats in the doldrums, just how much is Biden to blame? - Roll Call

New Hampshire Gov. Chris SununuChris SununuSunday shows preview: Boosters open to all US adults; House Dems pass spending plan on to Senate New Hampshire Gov. Sununu condemns tweet offering 0 'bounty' on teachers Biden focuses on US competitiveness to promote T infrastructure bill MORE (R) on Sunday dismissedDemocrats claims that their massive social spending and climate package is fully paid for, arguing nobody buys that.

This idea that this, 'We're going to spend 1.75 trillion, but trust us, it's not going to cost you anything.' Nobody buys that. The American people are smart, Sununu told co-host Dana BashDana BashChristie: Trump rhetoric about stolen election led to Jan. 6 attack Christie won't say if he'll support Trump in 2024 if he is the GOP nominee Club for Growth launches ad against Democrats over social spending bill MORE on CNNs State of the Union.

House Democrats on Friday passed their massive social spending and climate plan, dubbed the Build Back Better Act, after months of negotiationsmarked by internal party battles.

President BidenJoe BidenRisch dismayed with fellow GOP senators' blockade on Biden diplomatic picks Sunday shows preview: Boosters open to all US adults; House Dems pass spending plan on to Senate White House calls for investigation into missing Chinese tennis star's sexual assault claims MORE has consistently said that the package would be fully paid for, but an assessment from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released on Thursday paints a different picture.

The congressional scorekeeper found that when tax credits are included in the packages top-line number, the total price of the legislation soars above the initial $1.75 trillion framework.

Pressed by Bash on Democrats claims that they have ways to offset the cost of the package, Sununu said that raising taxeswould hurt lower- and middle-income families.

Yeah, it's called taxes, right? So one thing, one of the reasons I want to stay as governor is because they keep raising taxes on everybody, in Washington, D.C., said Sununu, who recently announced that he will run for reelection as governor of the Granite State instead of waging a bid for the U.S. Senate.

I keep lowering them and Republican governors keep lowering them for their citizens to offset that inflation, and itself is the worst tax you can put on low and middle income families across America because they got to buy a gallon of gas as much as anybody else, he added.

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Sununu on Democrats saying spending package is paid for: 'Nobody buys that' | TheHill - The Hill

Democratic congressional candidate Rochelle Garza speaks with voters in Brownsville, Texas, in September. Many Latino voters in South Texas turned against Democrats during last year's presidential election and winning them back could prove critical to the party's hopes of retaining control of Congress during next year's midterms. Eric Gay/AP hide caption

Democratic congressional candidate Rochelle Garza speaks with voters in Brownsville, Texas, in September. Many Latino voters in South Texas turned against Democrats during last year's presidential election and winning them back could prove critical to the party's hopes of retaining control of Congress during next year's midterms.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is launching a new, multimillion-dollar effort to engage and mobilize voters of color ahead of the midterm elections, including investments in local organizing and a seven-figure research and polling effort.

The plan, the details of which were shared first with NPR, includes an initial $30 million investment to hire local community organizers, launch targeted advertising campaigns aimed at nonwhite communities, as well as building voter protection and education programs. The committee is also working to combat disinformation efforts that are specifically focused on voters of color.

The announcement comes as Democrats are preparing to defend their slim congressional majorities in 2022, and as many in the party are still assessing their unexpected losses in significant elections this month. It is an early signal of how national Democrats plan to work to ensure that the racially diverse coalition that elected President Biden and delivered victories in key states across the country that gave Democrats a bare Senate majority shows up again.

"What we have learned from studying the 2020 election is when we invest in communities of color, it pays real dividends," New York Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said in an interview.

The announcement is also an indication that party leaders are aware that the broad, racially diverse coalition of voters that elected Democrats must be engaged consistently, and must not be treated as monolithic groups. While Democrats won the White House last year, they lost ground among nonwhite voters without a college education. Biden's campaign faced criticism over mixed results among varied segments of the Latino electorate, missteps that were blamed for setbacks in critical states like Florida and Texas, where a number of key House races will be decided in 2022.

Democrats are also facing aggressive redistricting by Republicans in some states, as well as souring approval ratings for the president and the Democratic Party.

Georgia Rep. Nikema Williams, a freshman who is leading the committee's efforts around voting rights and voter education, said that "we can't just show up in a community and expect people to listen to us and turn out overnight."

Williams, who is also the chair of the Georgia Democratic Party, said that recent Democratic victories in her state were the result of years of aggressive and consistent work.

"And I had a novel idea, what if we did year-round organizing and continued to bring information to the voters and continued to let voters know how Democrats were delivering for them? That's what we did in Georgia, that's how we won in Georgia, and that's what we're doing with the DCCC," Williams said.

Maloney said that as part of the Building our Base Project, he wants "boots on the ground much earlier, not just showing up at election time, and putting the resources behind it with a culturally competent, diverse team that knows what it's doing."

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee itself was the subject of complaints over diversity in its leadership, prior to Maloney's tenure as chairman. The committee says its staff is currently comprised of nearly 50% people of color, and the senior leadership team is 71% people of color. The DCCC also elevated Tasha Cole, the deputy executive director for diversity, equity and inclusion, as a member of the senior leadership team and added Missayr Boker to lead the committee's independent expenditure. Boker is the first Black person and person of color to hold that role.

The committee also plans to target Republican efforts to spread misinformation, as well as to cast all Democratic candidates as far-left. The committee says it will have a particular focus on social media platforms frequently used in communities of color. Voters of color were flooded with disinformation in the days leading up to the November 2020 election, and some Democrats say the party didn't do enough to combat it.

"It's not enough to just wave it away and pretend it doesn't matter. We need to take these lies and distortions seriously," Maloney said. "We need to have a robust effort to counter that disinformation, and we need to do research so we understand exactly how to do that without turning off our most reliable voters."

The Democratic National Campaign Committee is also launching its own voter protection team and increasing its efforts to educate voters. Federal voting rights legislation remains stalled in the Senate, despite repeated attempts by Democrats to pass bills in response to a wave of state-level laws championed by Republicans that restrict ballot access. Democrats and voting rights advocates say those laws have a disproportionate impact on people of color.

"We're making sure that we are doubling down on making sure that people know how to navigate all of these new rules and new laws, and making sure that any roadblocks to the ballot box are 'un-hurdled' by the DCCC," Williams said. "We should not have to out-organize our way out of voter suppression, but we're not giving up."

House Republicans have been taking cues from Democrats in many ways when it comes to candidate recruitment in recent years as they focus on a more diverse slate of recruits. The National Republican Congressional Committee says this year that nearly 90% of its 70 target districts have a female, veteran or minority candidate already filed to run.

It's a strategy the GOP used in 2020 when it was able to significantly narrow Democrats' majority in the House, even as Republicans lost control of the Senate and White House.

Asked about Republican recruiting efforts, Maloney said the House Republican Caucus "is not a diverse group of people that represents the full mosaic of the United States."

"What I can tell you is that we will field a truly diverse group of candidates. And I should point out, that some of our candidates who are running in the toughest districts are people of color, and we know that they have done an extraordinary job of telling their story and bringing voters to their cause."

Maloney ticked off the names of a number of Democratic incumbents of color: Reps. Lucy McBath of Georgia, Antonio Delgado of New York, Jahana Hayes of Connecticut and Lauren Underwood of Illinois.

"They have all done an extraordinary job of winning tough districts that are not diverse. And so we believe, absolutely in our hearts, that our diverse candidates are our true strength, not just in districts that are diverse, but in some of the most competitive districts of the country," he added.

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House Democrats have a new strategy to engage voters of color in the midterm elections - NPR

At the same time, Bruce Cain of Stanford suggested that a Democratic defeat in 2022 could be a potentially favorable development for the partys long term prospects:

It is quite possible that losing in the 2022 midterm is the best path to winning the presidency in 2024. It will put the Republicans in a put up or shut up spot vis--vis problems facing the country, and Biden meanwhile can work the middle without looking over his left shoulder.

Cain took this logic a step further to argue that

In retrospect the worst thing that happened to Biden was the Democrats winning the two seats in Georgia. It raised expectations among some in his party that they could go left legislatively while the political sun was shining when in reality the political math was not there for that kind of policy ambition.

Cain added:

The best hope for the Democrats is that Trump will undermine some Republicans during his vengeance tour and that the weakness of the people who want to run under his banner will create some unexpected wins for the Democrats.

Howard Rosenthal, a political scientist at N.Y.U., added this observation:

Pundits, who have to earn a living, always want to impute causality to election losses. However, the midterm cycle is just normal. Voters tend to balance the president. Over time, they also create divided government at the state level.

A surprising number of those I contacted made the case that the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan did more lasting damage to Biden than might have been expected.

The extended wall-to-wall media coverage of the hurried exit from Afghanistan probably served as a catalyst for some folks to update their views on Bidens performance and take into consideration both the foreign and domestic concerns, Ted Brader, a political scientist at the University of Michigan, wrote in an email:

Im skeptical that those events themselves drove the lower assessments; Americans weigh domestic events much heavier than foreign affairs. But the heightened attention and criticism can serve as an attention-getting call to re-evaluate the president: Wait, how well is he doing his job? As political science research has convincingly demonstrated, bipartisan criticism, as we saw with the Afghan withdrawal, in particular, opens the door to weaker support among independents and members of the presidents own party.

Gary Jacobson, a political scientist at the University of California, San Diego, wrote me that things touching on competence (Afghanistan, border, congressional inaction) are probably the most important in driving down Bidens ratings, but for the future, it is inflation and the general economy that will matter most, I think.

Herbert Kitschelt, a political scientist at Duke, contended in an email that the problems facing Biden and his Democratic colleagues run deeper than any single issue:

Biden was elected as a moderate to put back some sanity into government through a steady hand and incremental reforms. Instead, a wing of the Democratic Party took the 2020 election in which the Democratic Party lost a surprising number of House seats as a voter mandate to implement a pretty fundamental program of social reform and sociocultural change. While I personally might like a lot of these policy initiatives myself, I also realize that this programmatic ambition is consistent with the wishes of only a minority of core Democratic voters, and certainly not that of the centrist voters who prevented Trump from being re-elected.

The history of midterm elections suggests that substantial House losses for the party of the incumbent president are inevitable, barring such unusual circumstances as public hostility to the Republican-led impeachment of Bill Clinton in 1998 and the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks raising Republican support in 2002 the only two times since that the incumbent party gained seats since World War II.

In 2010, Joseph Bafumi, Robert Erikson and Christopher Wlezien, political scientists at Dartmouth, Columbia and the University of Texas at Austin, published Balancing, Generic Polls and Midterm Congressional Elections, in which they argued that between February and Election Day, the presidential partys vote strength almost always declines. But, they continued,

the degree of decline is unrelated to the publics evaluation of the president. Clearly, during the midterm election year, the electorate shifts away from the presidential party in its vote choice for reasons that have nothing to do with the electorates attitudes toward the president. By default, this is balancing: The electorate votes against the presidential party to give more power to the other party.

In a 1988 paper, The Puzzle of Midterm Loss, Erikson examined every midterm contest since 1902 and explicitly rejected the theory that such contests are a negative referendum on presidential performance. Instead, Erikson wrote,

A presidential penalty explanation fits the data nicely. By this explanation, the midterm electorate penalized the presidents party for being the party in power: Holding constant the presidential year House vote, the presidents party does much worse at midterm than it would if it did not control the presidency.

While substantial midterm losses for the incumbent presidents party are inevitable under most circumstances, that does not mean external developments have no influence on the scope of the outcome.

Kitschelt, quoting James Carville, noted in his email: Its the economy, stupid. And that means inflation, the supply chain troubles and the inability of the Democrats to extend the social safety net in an incremental fashion.

The inflation rate, Dritan Nesho, the director of civic technology and engagement at Microsoft and a co-director of the Harvard-Harris Poll, wrote in an email,

is now outpacing wage growth. As a consequence close to 4 in 10 voters are saying that their personal financial situation is getting worse. This figure is up from the low 20s in May and importantly, majorities of voters are not confident in either the Biden administration keeping inflation at bay (56 percent not confident/44 percent confident) and also of the Federal Reserve (53 percent not confident/47 percent confident).

In addition, Nesho said,

over two-third of voters (68 percent) believe illegal monthly border crossings have increased since Biden took office, 65 percent blame Bidens executive orders for encouraging illegal immigration, and 68 percent want stricter policies to reduce the flow of people across the border.

In January 2021, the month Biden took office, the University of Michigans consumer sentiment index stood at 79. By Nov. 1, the index had fallen to 66.8, the lowest it has been since November 2011. Richard Curtin, director of the consumer sentiment survey, wrote in a commentary accompanying the report: Consumer sentiment fell in early November to its lowest level in a decade due to an escalating inflation rate and the growing belief among consumers that no effective policies have yet been developed to reduce the damage from surging inflation.

Similarly, when Biden took office in January, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the inflation rate was 1.4 percent; as of October this year, the rate had risen to 6.2 percent.

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Opinion | Democrats Shouldnt Panic. They Should Go Into Shock. - The New York Times

News of a federal wiretap didnt hurt Norcross clout. Neither did Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy, an ally of public sector unions who hired lawyers to dig deeply into Norcross use of the state's tax incentives. Nor did progressive efforts to disrupt Norcross' power in the region's principal city of Camden or its suburbs.

Instead, the biggest hit to the power of Norcross came this month, when a truck driver who spent $10,000 on his campaign defeated Sweeney. It was one of the biggest political upsets in New Jersey history and the biggest in the nation this year a dark omen for Democrats worried about the 2022 midterms. That night, South Jersey Democrats also lost two of their six state Senate seats and four of their 12 state Assembly seats, accounting for most of the Democratic Partys losses in New Jersey, where Murphy stumbled to a narrow, 3-point reelection victory.

Now, Trenton insiders are looking slack-jawed at the diminishment of South Jersey Democrats dominance. Sweeney, Norcross and their machine fell victim to a blue collar revolt where the partys decades-long cultivation of conservative-leaning voters and adherence to flawed internal polling failed to predict or resist a Republican wave.

The arithmetic is undeniable in the fact that weve lost seats in the southern region, said state Assemblymember John Burzichelli (D-Gloucester), a 19-year incumbent in Sweeneys district who also lost his seat this month. I think that speaks for itself.

In this 2018 file photo, New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy addresses a gathering in the Assembly chamber of the Statehouse in Trenton, New Jersey. | Mel Evans/AP Photo

The outcome says something important about Democratic chances in the suburbs ahead of next year, when the country will hold 36 governors races on top of congressional elections. The same red wave that handed Sweeney his loss and put Glenn Youngkin in the Virginia governor's mansion did less damage to Democrats in the more white-collar suburbs in the northern half of New Jersey. As the Democrats in South Jersey also sustained losses at the local level, losing several county offices in the region, Democrats in the north flipped one Senate seat and lost just one Assembly seat. Murphy appeared to do better in some of those areas, too.

That suggests the Republican resurgence of 2021 is not a reversal of the 2018 midterms, when Democrats made remarkable strides in suburbs across the country including in New Jersey. Affluent and middle-class suburbs and exurbs that turned from purple to blue three years ago may still be Democratic. Its in more blue-collar communities, places that already backed Donald Trump, where voters who had supported moderate Democrats for years decided to vote Republican this time around.

Here in Trenton, the impact is already being felt: While South Jersey Democrats still compromise a substantial voting bloc in the state Legislature, January will be the first time in 16 years that one of their own does not preside at the top of either the General Assembly or state Senate.

With Assembly Speaker Craig Coughlin set to stay in place and state Sen. Nicholas Scutari (D-Union) in line to replace Sweeney, its a political sea change. Sweeney had worked hand-in-hand with Christie to pare down pensions for new public workers and cut health benefits. Together, they took over struggling Atlantic City and overhauled its finances, restructured South Jerseys university system and designed a tax credit system that directed millions to Camden.

Prior the pandemic, Sweeneys relationship with Murphy was strained at the best of times, while the two engaged in open political warfare during the worst times something that almost led to a government shutdown as they fought over Murphys first budget. Scutaris rise to power owes more to the now-larger Democratic delegation in Middlesex County, in Central Jersey, whose priorities will be different than those of South Jersey Democrats.

Weve got to get away from those years when Mr. Norcross and Mr. Christie were an oversized influence, said state Sen. Richard Codey (D-Essex), whom Sweeney ousted as senate president 12 years ago.

How did it happen? In a somber concession announcement Wednesday, Sweeney blamed a red wave. Norcross, in an interview with POLITICO shortly after the election, blamed a national anti-Democratic mood defined by the partys progressive wing. Voters massively rejected that notion, which was largely defined from the top in Washington, then down through New Jersey, he said.

Steve Kush, a Republican consultant who has spent years running unsuccessful legislative candidates against the South Jersey Democratic machine and, in 2003, nearly came to blows with now-congressman Donald Norcross, Georges brother referred back to the man who beat Sweeney: Edward Durr.

Ed Durr said it best. Two words: Phil Murphy, said Kush, who helped Durrs longshot campaign. Kush said he believes that a general disenchantment with the South Jersey Democrats patronage machine may have also played a role. Theres a lot of folks with jobs in the county government who feel they have to be loyal to the machine. None of them will ever say it out loud. But they tell you. Im a Democrat because I have a job, he said.

The Murphy campaign, in a memo meant for public consumption, blamed the national environment for the close result in the governors race, in which Murphy beat Republican Jack Ciattarelli by about 75,000 votes. The memo credited a smart, aggressive turnout strategy of vote-by-mail and early voting that enabled it to deliver a victory in the face of historic New Jersey voting patterns, strong GOP turnout, and a challenging national environment for the Democratic Party. And progressives who detest the South Jersey Democratic machine celebrated Sweeney's defeat albeit to a conservative who had a history of anti-Muslim social media posts for which he's since apologized.

There is a dent in the machine. Theres an opening a small little hole and if you keep pushing it, the hole keeps getting bigger and bigger, said Ronsha Dickerson, a Camden activist and Norcross critic who said she left the Democratic Party because she lost faith in it but still votes that way.

In this Dec. 10, 2015, photo, Steve Sweeney speaks to a gathering at the Statehouse in Trenton, New Jersey. | Mel Evans/AP Photo

There have been signs of Democratic vulnerabilities in South Jersey for years. Trump, for instance, narrowly won Sweeneys district in 2016 and 2020.

Democrats pains in South Jersey werent felt as acutely further north, though a couple Democratic North Jersey counties Bergen and Passaic, for instance were far closer than expected, with Murphy winning them by a relatively narrow margin.

Ironically, though, it may have been a backlash against Murphy by rural and suburban blue collar South Jersey voters that helped doom Sweeney and the other South Jersey Democrats.

[Murphy] dragged the party so far left and I think the voter perception was [South Jersey Democrats] didnt do enough to stop him, said Chris Russell, a Ciattarelli campaign consultant. Ultimately, I think voters made a decision that, if theyre not going to stand up to him and get in his way, why have him? Theyre going to elect Republicans.

In 2017, Murphy won Gloucester County, Sweeneys home county, by about 13 points. In 2021, he lost it by 10. That result wasnt driven by Murphy getting less votes he got about 2,600 more than he did four years ago but by Ciattarelli getting 22,500 more votes than the last Republican gubernatorial candidate, Kim Guadagno.

Sweeney got only a few hundred less votes accross his district than he did in 2017, according to the latest tally. But Durr got over 11,000 more votes than Sweeneys Republican challenger, Fran Grenier, did four years ago. Thats despite the fact that the New Jersey Education Association, the states largest public sector union, spent over $5 million to boost Greniers candidacy as it feuded with Sweeney over pension contributions.

South Jersey Democrats built their dominance of the region by engaging with Republicans, independents and moderate Democrats, a less blue voting base than up north, without Democratic powerhouses like Essex and Hudson counties. But Democrats have also made inroads in central and northern New Jerseys suburbs. In once-solidly Republican Somerset County a more affluent suburban area of Central Jersey thats home to Ciattarelli as well as former Republican Gov. Christie Whitman Murphy did better than he did in 2017, and Democrats picked up a state Senate seat that had been held by a Republican for decades.

It doesnt bode well for the south, Somerset County Democratic Chair Peg Schaffer said. But we didnt anticipate this, that the Republican vote down there was very significant. Its very conservative down there and we have a progressive governor.

In North Jerseys wealthy Morris County, which used to be one of the biggest Republican vote plurality producers in the state, Ciattarelli netted 21,000 more votes than Murphy less than half of what Christie, a Morris County resident, netted over Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine in 2009.

Democrats cant count on Cumberland, Salem or Gloucester anymore, said Cook Political Report Editor Dave Wasserman, a New Jersey native, referring to the three counties in Sweeneys district. Their future is in Somerset and Morris Counties.

Were talking about a long-term realignment in voters support for the parties, he said.

But Republicans, having seen Norcross raise millions of dollars to spend against their candidates by hosting a couple fundraisers, arent celebrating their impending doom.

Knowing George Norcorss the way I know George Norcross, what it means is hes going to raise even more money and come at us even harder, Kush said. It means we better hunker down.

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How one election left this powerful Democratic organization fighting to survive - POLITICO