Category Archives: Democrat

Some Democrats running in competitive reelection races in November are still reluctant to attach themselves to President Biden, even as he and the White House have been buoyed by a few weeks of good news.

Biden has in recent weeks racked up a series of major legislative victories, and hes seen his poll numbers rebound slightly from all-time lows earlier in the summer. But that has yet to translate to enthusiasm among Democrats to embrace him on the campaign trail.

There have been some signs of that changing as primary season comes to a close, and a few experts believe Democrats are better off embracing Biden in the wake of his recent hot streak.

Democrats cant possibly think that Republicans wont put them in ads with Biden even if he physically doesnt appear with him. Theyre going to be linked to Biden, so they might as well make the most of it, said Michael Cornfield, a political scientist and associate professor at George Washington University.

The benefits I think clearly outweigh the costs, he added.

During a recent trip to Ohio, Democratic Senate candidate Tim Ryan and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Nan Whaley both skipped Bidens event. Neither has appeared alongside Biden on the campaign trail in recent weeks.

Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio), who did appear alongside Biden at an event earlier this year, recently sought to distance herself from the president in a campaign ad that states, She doesnt work for Joe Biden. She works for you.

Biden has had limited travel in recent weeks, as he was sidelined by COVID-19 and more recently spent two weeks on vacation. But the president has not appeared alongside Senate candidates this summer in key races in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Arizona.

A Democratic strategist argued that incumbents and candidates will appear with Biden when it makes the most sense for their campaign strategy.

I think every candidate is going to look at it from his or her perspective in a very different manner and, particularly, if my demographic to win the race, for example, is white college-educated women and Im playing on a Roe v. Wade-related issue, it may make sense to bring the president in as a rallying cry, the strategist said.

The president has been something of a political drag in recent months, as rising costs of gas, housing, food and other goods helped sink his approval rating to a low average of 37 percent as recently as July 21, according to an average of polls from RealClearPolitics.

But momentum has started to shift, as Biden saw a flurry of congressional action in late July and early August, paired with declining gas prices and a successful counterterrorism mission that killed a top al Qaeda leader.

Bidens poll numbers have started to rebound: A Yahoo News-YouGov poll released Wednesday found the presidents approval rating at its highest level since May, though it still sits at 40 percent.

Xochitl Hinojosa, former communications director at the Democratic National Committee (DNC), argued that Democrats should be using Biden on the campaign trail, considering the wins he has delivered.

Because of the leadership of President Biden and Democrats in Congress, Democratic candidates have a long list of accomplishments to run on, whether its a strong economy, policies that lower costs, infrastructure investments and historic climate investments, she said. Democrats should be doing everything to tout and embrace that agenda, including utilizing President Biden and his Cabinet on the campaign trail.

With the presidents brand starting to bounce back, a few Democrats have begun to signal they are willing to embrace Biden as campaign season heats up.

Hes a great man. Hes a great president. I cant wait for him to get down here. I need his help. I want his help. Hes the best Ive ever met, Rep. Charlie Crist told CNN on Wednesday after clinching the states Democratic gubernatorial nomination.

Maryland Democratic gubernatorial nominee Wes Moore is set to join Biden on Thursday at a DNC event in Montgomery County, Md.

Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), who is in one of the most closely watched Senate races, gave a lukewarm endorsement of the president coming to visit him on the campaign trail.

I will welcome anybody that comes to Arizona, travel around the state at any time, as long as Im here, if Im not up in Washington in session, and talk about what Arizona needs, Kelly said Sunday on CNN.

A Democratic operative described Bidens lack of appearances with lawmakers as systematic and part of a strategy ahead of November.

Joe Biden is old school. He knows the value of campaigning for you or against you, whatever helps you win. The goal is to win, not to massage egos, the operative said.

Some administration officials have appeared with lawmakers to promote the Inflation Reduction Act at events around the country, which tend to draw very little attention compared to events with the president.

Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack participated in a roundtable discussion with Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo) who is facing a tough reelection race in Grand Junction, Colo., last week. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, a 2020 rival of Bidens, has also appeared in recent days with officials in Florida, New Mexico and Oklahoma.

Biden is expected to ramp up his travel after Labor Day to tout the benefits of the Inflation Reduction Act, though the White House has yet to preview where he is going or who he might appear with.

But strategists expect the White House to carefully calibrate where Biden can be most useful in announcing new funding and how he can benefit the party with just two months until the midterms.

I think Joe Biden at the end of the day is going to be all about, how do I keep a Democratic House and a Democratic Senate? one Democratic strategist said. If I can help, Ill be there. If I cant help, I wont be there.

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Democrats show reluctance to campaign with Biden - The Hill

Soon half of every dollar paid in federal income tax will be paying interest on the national debt (CNBC, Peter Tanous, 1/27/22). According to the US Treasury, $7.4 trillion is owed to China, Japan, oil exporting countries and Caribbean banking centers (Statista, Erin Duffin,8/2/22). The Social Security Trust Fund accounts for much of the rest of the $30.6 trillion debt (Statista).

When Obama began the debt was at $10.6 trillion and he left with an astounding $19.9 trillion (CNBC, J Cox, 2/2/19). The debt rose $7.9 trillion under Trump (WashPo, A Sloan, 1/14/21) mostly due to costs related to COVID and the pandemic stimulus. TheNYTimes (3/11/22) reported over $100 billion of that money hasnt ever been distributed by the Treasury. Why is that if we were told it was so imperative two years ago?

When Joe took office, the debt was $27.8 trillion rising $2.8 trillion to $30.6 trillion today. Who can say what his college debt forgiveness scheme will add? Didnt Madame Speaker say in 2021 Biden doesnt have the legal authority to forgive debt? Pelosi said Trump broke the law over a phone call (BBC News, 9/24/19) and the Democrats impeached him.

Dont expect Pelosi to bring articles of impeachment on Joe or any of them to care who is saddled with paying for it this folly. Thats because there is no debt cancellation, its a debt transfer to generations of those who didnt incur it and Pelosi said its illegal.

Al Gore announced in 2000 his top goal for being elected president was a steady reduction of the national debt (NYTimes, 4/26/00) which was only $5.6 trillion then. Joes debt transfer debacle wont fulfill Als dream nor will it lower inflation any more than his Inflation Reduction Act, but thats the cost of voting Democrat.

Ralph Miller

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The Cost Of Voting Democrat - The Chattanoogan

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When Congress debated the "American Rescue Plan" in early 2021, Democrats insisted this partisan, $1.9 trillion debt-financed spending spree would not fuel inflation and was needed for an economy already in quick recovery.

As Republicans and many economists predicted, the economy overheated, inflation soared and gas prices doubled. We are now in a period of economic stagnation, with the majority of the country believing we are already in a recession.

Rather than working together on pro-growth and counter-inflationary policies, my Democratic colleagues broke with earlier commitments for unity and chose to double down on a partisan, tried-and-failed tax-and-spend strategy with doses of medical price controls that will crush innovation and drive shortages. The mislabeled "Inflation Reduction Act of 2022," which experts say does nothing to curb inflation, offers higher taxes, more spending, higher prices, and an army of Internal Revenue Service (IRS) agents.

The bill includes a staggering $80 billion infusion of mandatory funding for the IRS. This fundingsix times the agencys current budgetwill empower the agency to hire an army of auditors to squeeze $204 billion out of taxpayers of all income levels to fund Democrats wishful "green new deal" policies.

HILL REPORT CLAIMS REPUBLICANS ARE MAKING THE IRS A BOOGEYMAN

Of the $80 billion, $45.6 billion will be for enforcement, to collect Democrats desired $204 billion or more of federal revenue. The IRS outlined in earlier documents it would use the funding to hire 86,852 fulltime employees, and specifically referenced "hiring and training agents dedicated to complex enforcement activities." Such hiring would make the IRS larger than the Pentagon, State Department, FBI, and Border Patrol combined.

Advocates argue the enforcement funding will be used to close the tax gapthe difference between taxes owed and taxes paidand then claim it is only about "wealthy tax cheats." Yet, the data tell a different story. Democrats will not achieve their desired tax revenue goals without also targeting the middle class, small businesses and taxpayers earning under $400,000 per year.

As Ranking Member of the Senate Finance Committee, I asked the nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) to estimate where most underreported income in the "tax gap" lies. The JCT determined 78-90 percent of under- or misreported-income comes from those making below $200,000, while only around 4-9 percent comes from those making $500,000 or more.

Much misreported income comes from less sophisticated small businesses and sole proprietors, many of whom make less than $400,000 per year and simply have trouble complying with an oppressive and overly-complex tax code. Small, cash-heavy businesses and those who cannot afford teams of lawyers and legal fees are the easiest targets for a supersized IRS. With American taxpayers having a steadily high voluntary compliance rate, most recently reported at nearly 86 percent, rhetoric about hordes of American taxpayers being "tax cheats" seems inconsistent with facts.

The Finance Committee examined the IRSs own data on its success in having courts sustain IRS claims that people across the income spectrum are cheating on their taxes. The IRS success rate is below 47 percent over the past twenty years. Thus, the IRS more often asserts tax deficiencies exist, with the courts disagreeing, which is hardly evidence for a multitude of tax cheats. Rather, it is firm evidence innocent taxpayers are often subjected to unnecessary and inappropriate scrutiny. They will be to an even greater extent with nearly 87,000 new IRS employees whose mission will be to squeeze revenue out of American taxpayers.

Democratic colleagues, the Administration and the IRS are protesting they are not going to increase audits on people making less than $400,000. However, when I offered an amendment to put into binding statute that increased funds could not be used to increase audits on those making less than $400,000, every Democratic senator voted "No." The most they would agree to was to say they did not "intend" such audits. Even this non-binding pledge was later stricken from the bill. Democrats know increased audits for the middle class, small businesses and those making less than $400,000 are inevitable under their legislation.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) confirmed this, estimating my amendment would result in at least tens of billions less in enforcement revenue. So, the nonpartisan CBO confirms "at least" tens of billions of the projected revenue coming from increased enforcement will come from those making less than $400,000 per year. Moreover, according to data from the IRS and Joint Committee on Taxation, between 78 and 90 percent of underreported incomethe largest component of the tax gap the Democrats funding purports to want to closeis associated with taxpayers making less than $200,000 per year. Despite those facts, proponents of the recently passed tax-and-spend bill remain in denial. The promise to not tax anyone earning less than $400,000 will be broken.

Meanwhile, only $3.2 billionunder four percentof the IRS funding influx will be dedicated to taxpayer services. Given Americans have long dealt with abysmal IRS service, the "paupers sum" for fixing IRSs customer service is indefensible. It lays bare that my Democratic colleagues have less concern about poor IRS service and utmost interest in the IRS squeezing more money from American taxpayers.

Yet, far greater concern for taxpayer service is warranted. In 2021, just over one in ten callers was ever able to reach the IRS by telephone. More than 250 million calls simply went unanswered. Those who managed to get through spent more than 29 minutes on hold. That same year, it took the IRS on average 251 days to respond to taxpayer correspondencemore than triple the already dreadful 74 days average of 2019. Nonetheless, Democrats opted to set aside just a sliver of their IRS funding bloat for taxpayer services.

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While taxpayers are slighted, tax regulators will have a bonanza, with nearly $105 million to swell the coffers of the Treasury Office of Tax Policy for unaccountable bureaucrats in Treasurys tax-rules-and-regulation-writing machine. Americans already face too much regulatory red tape created by Washington, but Democrats instead chose to supercharge complexity and hassle. Flush with funding, Treasury "technocrats" could, and undoubtedly will, foist everything from higher audit rates to the resurrection of their bank reporting scheme on American taxpayers. Letting the IRS snoop into the bank accounts of all Americans who have more than $10,000 worth of transactions in a year would essentially give the IRS access to virtually all Americans bank accounts.

I will be introducing my amendment as a standalone bill to prevent the IRS from using any of the supersized $80 billion of funding for audits on hard-working American taxpayers, individuals and small businesses with taxable incomes below $400,000. The bill puts legislative teeth into an otherwise non-binding (and now-stricken) statement of intent or toothless and unenforceable edict from the Treasury Secretary.

My Democratic colleagues circumvented regular order and slipped through with the narrowest possible margin a partisan bill filled with an unbridled, supersized IRS, unvetted tax policies, and spending policies and price controls that will not work.

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Americans should be very concerned, and brace for more audits, investigations and tax enforcement on taxpayers of all income levels. Taxpayers deserve better.

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Republican Mike Crapo represents Idaho in the United States Senate where he serves as Ranking Member of the Senate Finance Committee.

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Democrats hire army of agents at IRS to squeeze honest taxpayers for Green New Deal - Fox News

Vulnerable incumbent Democratic senators like Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire are holding events promoting the landmark legislation they passed over the weekend. Democratic ad makers are busily preparing a barrage of commercials about it across key battlegrounds. And the White House is set to deploy Cabinet members on a nationwide sales pitch.

The sweeping legislation, covering climate change and prescription drug prices, which came together in the Senate after more than a year of painfully public fits and starts, has kicked off a frenetic 91-day sprint to sell the package by November and win over an electorate that has grown skeptical of Democratic rule.

For months, Democrats have discussed their midterm anxieties in near-apocalyptic terms, as voters threatened to take out their anger over high gas prices and soaring inflation on the party in power. But the deal on the broad new legislation, along with signs of a brewing voter revolt over abortion rights, has some Democrats experiencing a flicker of an unfamiliar feeling: hope.

This bill gives Democrats that centerpiece accomplishment, said Ali Lapp, the president of House Majority PAC, a Democratic super PAC.

In interviews, Democratic strategists, advisers to President Biden, lawmakers running in competitive seats and political ad makers all expressed optimism that the legislation the Inflation Reduction Act would deliver the party a necessary and powerful tool to show they were focused on lowering costs at a time of economic hardship for many. They argued its key provisions could be quickly understood by crucial constituencies.

It is easy to talk about because it has a real impact on people every day, Jennifer OMalley Dillon, the White House deputy chief of staff, said in an interview. The measure must still pass the House and could come up for a vote there later this week. Its congressional Democrats whove gotten it done with no help from congressional Republicans.

Whether Democrats can keep the measure in the spotlight is another matter. On Monday evening, former President Donald J. Trump said the F.B.I. had searched his Palm Beach, Fla., home, a significant development that threatened to overshadow the news of the Senate deal and that gave already-energized Republicans a new cause to circle the wagons around Mr. Trump.

Still, for younger voters, who polls have shown to be cool to Mr. Biden and his party, the package contains the most sweeping efforts to address climate change in American history. For older voters, the deal includes popular measures sought for decades by Democrats to rein in the price of prescription drugs for seniors on Medicare. And for both the Democratic base and independents, the deal cuts against the Republican argument that a Democratic-controlled Washington is a morass of incompetence and gridlock unfocused on issues that affect average Americans.

Its very significant because it shows that the Democrats care about solving problems, it shows that we can get things done and I think it starts to turn around some of the talk about Biden, said Representative Dina Titus, a Nevada Democrat running in a competitive re-election race, alluding to angst about the president as his national approval rating has hovered around 40 percent.

Adding to the Democratic Partys brightening outlook were the results of the Kansas referendum on abortion rights last week, when a measure that would have removed abortion protections from the Kansas Constitution was overwhelmingly defeated. It was a stark reminder of the volatile and unpredictable political impact of the Supreme Courts overturning of Roe v. Wade.

I can kind of feel it on the streets, that theres some change in momentum, Ms. Titus said.

Indeed, in recent days, Democrats pulled ahead of Republicans for the first time this year when voters were asked which party they would prefer to control Congress the so-called generic ballot test according to polling averages maintained by the data-journalism website FiveThirtyEight.

There is no guarantee of success in selling the bill. Last year, the White House shepherded through a rare bipartisan infrastructure deal. But its passage, which drew great fanfare in Washington, did little to arrest the continual decline in Mr. Bidens approval ratings and many Americans were still unaware that the measure passed months later, polling showed.

Republicans say the new legislation could galvanize their own base against an expansive progressive wish list that has been decades in the making, just as the passage of the Affordable Care Act preceded the Republican wave of 2010.

Thats the sort of thing that could really set a spark to the powder keg in the same way that the midnight passage of Obamacare was the moment that electrified Republican voters and started to really pull independents in our direction, said Steven Law, who leads the main Republican super PAC devoted to Senate races.

Republican assaults on the legislation for bulking up the Internal Revenue Service, for creating a green energy slush fund, as Senator Tom Cotton, Republican of Arkansas, has called it, and for expanding spending programs despite the bills Inflation Reduction Act title have already begun.

How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.

Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, who is seen as the chambers most vulnerable Republican in November, dismissed the package, which he voted against, as giving bad policies a nice name. But Mr. Johnsons likely Democratic opponent, Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes of Wisconsin, immediately signaled that he intended to make votes around the legislation an issue in the general election, focusing in particular on insulin costs.

Advisers to both Mr. Biden and Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the majority leader, said a significant difference between this package and the infrastructure one is that the party-line votes on this deal were ready-made for the kind of contrast messaging that campaigns thrive on. After the president signs the bill, Building Back Together, a nonprofit aligned with Mr. Biden, is planning a major television and digital ad buy in multiple battleground states.

The provision that Democrats in competitive races appear most energized about is the long-sought ability for the government to negotiate lower drug prices for Medicare recipients with the pharmaceutical industry. And Democrats said the legislation would help address the spiraling cost of living a defining issue of 2022.

We are dealing with significant economic issues that people are facing, and thats demonstrated by the legislation weve passed, said Senator Gary Peters of Michigan, who is the chairman of the Democratic Senate campaign arm. He called the measure central to Democratic messaging in the final campaign stretch, and crucial to crystallizing the choice between the parties.

The legislation is paid for, in part, through a new 15 percent minimum corporate tax for companies that report more than $1 billion in annual income to shareholders and more funds for the I.R.S. to crack down on wealthy tax evaders. Overall, budget analysts projected it would shrink the deficit even while steering nearly $400 billion in tax credits toward consumers for buying electric vehicles and for electric utilities to adopt renewable energy sources.

Some experts predict reduced energy bills, which top Democrats said they planned to pitch as another cost-cutting element.

For Democrats, the best salespeople may not be the political leaders at all. Advocacy groups for seniors, for instance, might be able to more persuasively trumpet the governments ability to negotiate reduced drug prices and the AARP New Hampshire state director joined Ms. Hassan at an event on Tuesday discussing the new efforts to lower prescription drug prices. Likewise, environmentalists who have long expressed frustration with inaction in Washington would have far greater credibility with liberal voters to declare the package a landmark achievement, even if imperfect.

While there is an inside-the-D.C.-bubble appeal to saying you did a big thing, for voters to appreciate it, you have to sell each of the things individually, said Michael Podhorzer, the former longtime political director of the A.F.L.-C.I.O.

In Georgia, Senator Raphael Warnock, one of the chambers most endangered Democrats in 2022, is able to campaign on the fact that the final package includes provisions of legislation he had pushed, such as the overall annual limit of $2,000 for prescription drugs for those on Medicare an issue he advertised on even when it was just a proposal.

In Arizona, Senator Mark Kelly and two other Western Democratic senators Senator Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada and Senator Michael Bennet of Colorado, all up for re-election in 2022 announced on Friday the last-minute addition of $4 billion in drought funding.

When it comes to legislation, Im very much of the school that if a campaign isnt or cant communicate on it on television, online, etc. then its not real, said J.B. Poersch, who leads the main Senate Democratic super PAC, which has more than $100 million in television ads reserved in the coming months.

And this package, he said, more than meets that test: lowering drug costs, capping insulin prices for Medicare recipients and protecting the subsidies in the Affordable Care Act that lower premiums all of which Republicans opposed. Thats a pretty good argument if you ask me, he said.

New polling released last week by Data for Progress, a left-of-center think tank, showed why Democrats are so eager to talk about the prescription drug piece, in particular: Allowing Medicare to lower drug prices through negotiations was wildly popular, with 85 percent support.

But the survey had warning signs for Democrats. Only 45 percent of likely voters said they believed the overall package would improve their own familys bottom line at least some or a great deal.

Some frontline Democrats on Monday were reluctant to say the political environment has shifted substantially. With the presidents approval ratings still abysmal, they implored the White House to do its part, with advertising and barnstorming to emphasize the string of recent successes, including a bipartisan bill that sought to shore up Americas competitive edge versus China in manufacturing and technology and ensuring medical care for veterans exposed to toxic burn pits.

Representative Susan Wild, a Pennsylvania Democrat running in a competitive district, praised many aspects of the legislation, especially concerning climate and some health care provisions.

But, she warned, I always think we should be cautious about over-promising.

She added, It is a really important bill, dont get me wrong. But at the same time, you always have to temper your enthusiasm with a huge dose of reality so that people dont think that next time they go fill their prescription, its going to cost less.

Jonathan Weisman contributed reporting.

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Democrats Enter the Fall Armed With Something New: Hope - The New York Times

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Democrats are desperate to stay on message, touting week of wins on Twitter while mostly staying quiet about the FBI raid on former President Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago home.

Trump's Florida residence was raided Monday after a warrant was obtained by the FBI, purportedly to search for confidential government documents the former president is accused of holding onto after leaving office.

The raid comes after a week of wins for the Democratic Party, from abortion rights being protected in Kansas, the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 passage in the Senate and the CHIPS and Science Act being signed into law.

President Biden has not made any statements regarding the raid, but he took the time to praise the Inflation Reduction Act, the Democrats bill, which is set to be voted on by the House of Representatives later this week.

FLASHBACK: SOME DEMOCRATS WHO PRAISED MAR-A-LAGO RAID PREVIOUSLY SLAMMED TRUMP FOR TRYING TO WEAPONIZE DOJ

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., who are both running for re-election this fall, used their platforms Tuesday to announce Biden signing the chips and science bill into law.

Sen. Cortez Masto, D-Nev, praised the new Democratic legislation: "The Inflation Reduction Act is the most significant action that the Senate has ever taken to tackle the climate crisis."

Clyburn responded to the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) report claiming Americans in almost every income category would see their taxes raised as a result of the Inflation Reduction Act.

CLINTON-LINKED LAWYER SAYS TRUMP COULD BE BARRED FROM RE-ELECTION AFTER FBI RAID, CITES US CODE

Sen. Krysten Sinema, D-Ariz., also was among the Democrats who applauded Tuesday's bill signing, while the GOP used their voices on Twitter to blast the FBI raid.

Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., made several posts regarding the incident in his state.

"The FBI raid was unprecedented for America, but familiar to those in Florida who fled nations where political opposition was criminalized If voters put us back in the majority we better have the guts to subpoena the records & make those who authorized this testify under oath," Rubio said.

Following the raid, Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., said that Attorney General Merrick "Garland must resign or be impeached. The search warrant must be published. Christoper Wray must be removed. And the FBI reformed top to bottom."

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy called out Garland and warned of congressional hearings, telling him to "preserve your documents and clear your calendar."

Former Democratic New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo joined Republicans in demanding answers on the raid, saying the "DOJ must immediately explain the reason for its raid & it must be more than a search for inconsequential archives, or it will be viewed as a political tactic and undermine any future credible investigation & legitimacy of January 6 investigations."

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Eric Trump told Fox News Tuesday that the raid was an attempt to prevent Trump from running for president in 2024, and said he hopes his father "goes out and beats" them again, teasing a possible presidential run. Trump, who was in New York at the time of the raid, has not released a statement since his initial announcement of the incident.

Aubrie Spady is a college associate for Fox News Digital.

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Democrats desperate to stay on message after recent wins, avoid talking about FBI's Trump raid - Fox News

Doug Sosnik is the kind of political analyst who likes to figure out the results of the next election well in advance its just how hes wired.

But even Sosnik, a former adviser to President Bill Clinton who now tries to forecast elections as a hobby, is stumped about the 2022 midterms.

I cant figure this one out, Sosnik said on Monday, a day after Democrats passed Build Back Better whoops, pardon me, the Inflation Reduction Act, a woolly mammoth-size package that aims to shrink both the deficit and the risk of catastrophic climate change.

The bills passage is one of a string of recent victories for beleaguered Democrats, who have spent the past 18 months squabbling among themselves and fretting about the coming elections. Gas prices are ticking down. Jobs are plentiful, with the unemployment rate at a 50-year low.

Congress also passed the bipartisan CHIPS Act, a bill that would provide $52 billion in subsidies and tax credits to companies that manufacture chips in the United States and would add more than $200 billion for applied scientific research.

Even President Biden, whose age and concern about the virus forced him to spend much of the 2020 presidential election campaigning from his home in Wilmington, Del., managed to shrug off 18 days of coronavirus-induced quarantine.

As Ethel Merman might say, everything seems to be coming up roses for Joe and the gang in recent weeks, despite widespread predictions that Democrats are likely to lose the House and possibly the Senate.

According to the usual logic Sosnik uses to make predictions, Democrats should expect a blood bath in the fall. But hes not so sure anymore and is questioning everything he knows about the deeper patterns of U.S. elections.

He is puzzled by one thing in particular: Which past elections offer a guide to 2022?

The question doesnt have an easy answer, in part because times have changed there was no recent assault on the Capitol with the partial backing of one particular party in the 1982 midterms, for instance and in part because the nature of political partisanship has changed.

That latter point makes it really hard to compare todays approval ratings to the past; back in, say, the 1960s, voters were much more inclined to give the president the benefit of the doubt. Today, far fewer partisans are willing to give the other side an ounce of credit or respect.

Midterms are completely different animals than presidential election cycles, too: Fewer voters turn out, and the electorate tends to be older and more Republican.

Historically, or at least since World War II, the party in power has lost seats in every midterm election but two: 1998 and 2002.

The first came as Clinton skillfully exploited the unpopularity of congressional Republicans, whose impeachment drive backfired. The second came after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, when patriotic sentiments were still running high.

But these midterms are structurally different from many others. For one thing, many of the Democratic House members in battleground districts the Cindy Axnes and Elissa Slotkins of the world were elected in the anti-Trump wave of 2018. Those who held onto their seats in 2020, a good year for Republicans in Congress despite Trumps loss, may know a thing or two about staying in office.

How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.

So they werent elected on Bidens coattails, unlike many of the Democrats who took power after Barack Obamas commanding win in 2008 but who then lost in the 2010 midterms.

That said, most of the indicators warning of a shellacking for Democrats are blinking red:

Hence Sosniks confusion. What hes wrestling with is the seeming dissonance between the rotten mood of the country, and all the red blinkers, on the one hand, and the string of recent Democratic victories.

You can see some of this nuance reflected in the so-called generic ballot, an average of survey responses to the question of which party voters would like to see represent them in Congress. Right now, the generic ballot is basically tied.

One historical clue is the fate of Lyndon Baines Johnson, who rammed his Great Society programs through Congress during his first few years in office, only to see voters punish Democrats at the polls in the 1966 midterms. Republicans picked up 47 seats that year.

Two years later, Johnson announced that he would not seek another term hobbled, unquestionably, by the war in Vietnam.

Johnsons average approval rating during his first term was 74.2 percent, according to Gallup. Thats a number Biden would love to have. And even his overall average approval rating, which dipped below 40 as the war dragged on, shrank only to 55.1 percent by the end of his presidency.

The point being: If even Johnson, the master of the Senate, couldnt profit from passing landmark legislation, how can anyone expect Biden to fare better?

Weve been engaged in a battle all along, said Representative David Price, a Democrat of North Carolina and a political scientist for many years at Duke University who wrote his dissertation about Johnsons Great Society. The counternarrative always was one of inflation and economic distress, and of course thats a real challenge.

But even Price, who said he thought many analysts were underrating Democrats chances of retaining the House, acknowledged the difficulty of the endeavor. I dont think I have a good answer, and I dont think anybody does as to how to break through, he said.

On the Senate side, the timing of the Inflation Reduction Act might be especially helpful for Democratic incumbents in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and New Hampshire. They are preparing to unleash hundreds of millions of dollars of television ad spending, playing up the prescription drug benefits in the new law along with what proponents say are other provisions intended to help Americans pay for household expenses.

Chris Hartline, a spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, argues that Republicans still have plenty to work with.

The G.O.P. is skilled at exploiting the other partys major legislative deals for political gain. In addition to hitting Democrats on the overall price tag, the partys opposition researchers comb through the bill text and find provisions that can be weaponized into talking points and television ads.

In response to record inflation and two quarters in a row of negative economic growth, Democrats just passed a trillion dollars in new spending that even Bernie Sanders admits wont have any impact on inflation but will raise taxes on middle-class families and American manufacturers, Hartline said.

He also pointed to Democrats positions on crime and expanding domestic energy production, two issues Republicans have been hammering on amid an uptick in violent crime in cities across America and soaring gas prices.

Senate Republicans have decided that their platform is opposing lowering costs for Americans prescription drugs, countered David Bergstein, communications director for the Democrats own campaign arm. Thats a deeply unpopular position that will lead their campaigns to defeat.

Donald Trumps supporters in Wisconsin have turned the misguided belief that the results of the 2020 election can be nullified into central campaign issues in the states Republican primary for governor, Reid Epstein writes.

And in Wisconsins Senate race, Mandela Barnes, the states lieutenant governor, has consolidated Democrats in his bid to take on Ron Johnson, one of the most vulnerable Republicans in the Senate. Jazmine Ulloa takes a look.

Blake

Is there anything you think were missing? Anything you want to see more of? Wed love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com.

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Democrats and Republicans Struggle to Forecast 2022 Midterms - The New York Times

HOLLAND, MI Write-in candidate Joseph Alfonso, D-Holland, appears headed toward the November ballot as county canvassers continue to certify election results in the race for Michigans U.S. District 4.

Still, theres a ways to go and the 32-year-old former Marine says he is patiently respecting the process.

This process has been a waiting game, but Im just being patient, having faith in the system and not trying to further cause any doubts or other issues, Alfonso told MLive Tuesday, Aug. 9.

As of early afternoon, Tuesday, four of the six counties in the newly-drawn district were still yet to certify results from the Aug. 2 primary election, leaving Alfonsos campaign to continue to wait for the final word of whether he had enough certified write-in votes to land on the November ballot. That actual final word likely wont come until Aug. 22, which is the state deadline for certifying results.

If successful in making the Nov. 8 general election ballot, Alfonso will face off against U.S. Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Zeeland), as well as Kalamazoo Libertarian and former state Rep. Lorence Wenke, both of whom ran unopposed in their own primary races.

In order to be successful as a write-in candidate, a declared write-in candidate is required to not only win their own race, but receive at least 5% of the number of votes cast in the Democratic Party race that received the most votes throughout their respective district which across District 4 was the race for governor.

The new congressional district includes all of Allegan and Van Buren counties, and portions of Ottawa, Kalamazoo, Berrien and Calhoun counties, including the cities of Kalamazoo, Battle Creek and Holland.

Of the two counties to have completed their canvass, Alfonso successfully garnered enough support through his write-in campaign to unofficially finish with 13.2% of the number of votes cast in the race for governor.

In Ottawa County, he received 2,093 write-in votes, according to the county cavass results report. In Van Buren County, he received 696 votes. There were 1,103 write-in votes in Ottawa County and 1,017 in Van Buren County that were thrown out, meaning only 56.8% of the write-in vote unofficially went to Alfonso.

The other four counties in the district were still yet to certify their results, but across Kalamazoo, Calhoun, Allegan and Berrien counties there were a total of 15,477 write-in votes cast in Alfonsos race with 51,363 votes cast in the Democratic race for governor.

Those four other counties will get done when they get done, Alfonso said. We are feeling pretty good, but we are going to wait for everyone else to do their jobs and respect their space.

While odds are seemingly in Alfonsos favor to get his name on the ballot, write-in votes can be thrown out for a number of reasons, Kalamazoo County Clerk Meredith Place said. Among those include votes for people who are not declared write-in candidates, as well as ballots for which the oval is properly filled in next to the write-in selection, but no name is actually written in, she said.

Oftentimes, a write-in candidates name can be misspelled too, she said, and it is up to each individual county board of canvassers to determine whats an acceptable name variation.

The language from the board of canvassers says its up to the county board of canvassers to discern the intent of the voter, Place said. Whats an approved variation in one county, may not be in another county.

Place said it then rests with the state board of canvassers to determine whether it will accept the accepted variations by each county. The counties have until Aug. 16 to certify their results and submit them to the State of Michigan. The State Board of Canvassers then must certify votes prior to Aug. 22.

Im in this race to win, Alfonso said. We are looking to give West Michigan a representative who is here to give the entire community a voice, not just a few.

The newly-drawn district had placed two Republican incumbents, U.S. Rep. Fred Upton (St. Joseph) of the former sixth district and Huizenga, formerly of the second, into the same district. Upton announced his retirement in April and left Huizenga, who is running for his seventh term in U.S. Congress, unopposed in the Aug. 2 Republican primary.

Related: Upton retirement marks latest departure for anti-Trump Republicans, big blow for Michigan congressional delegation

It also presents an opportunity for Alfonso and the Democratic Party to, in essence, replace two Republican congressmen as the states number of congressional districts has decreased by one.

Theres no question its important to the national party, but my focus here is here, Alfonso said. Its representing the community. We are fighting tooth and nail and making sure this community has a choice, especially somebody whos willing to get up there and not be shy and not be afraid of the work.

Alfonso, who filed his candidacy last December, declared as a write-in candidate after being removed from the ballot in late May when the state board of canvassers ruled that he had fallen short of the necessary 1,000 signatures to petition onto the ballot.

According to a May report from the Michigan State Bureau of Elections, only 959 of the 1,027 signatures collected by the Democrat and his team were valid, leaving him short. Of the 68 signatures deemed invalid, the majority were due to date errors, such as lack of date written by the signer, no date of birth entered, or the date given by the signer being later than circulators date of signing.

Alfonso was one of 19 candidates removed from the ballot on May 26 along with three other other U.S. congressional candidates, five Republican gubernatorial candidates and 10 judicial candidates due to either petition errors or fraud. He declared his write-in candidacy the following day.

Related: Its their obligation: Michigan boots 19 candidates from Aug. 2 ballots over petition errors, fraud

While he does not have a background in politics, the veteran who was raised in New York City and moved to Michigan in 2015 said following the Jan. 6 insurrection he took some time prior to entering the race and asked himself if he was doing enough to protect his daughters rights and freedoms, as well as helping to protect his community from misinformation and disinformation.

We have people running for office who are doing well, or are at least doing their best to do well, he said, dismissing his lack of political experience. And we have so many career politicians going into this who are causing further and further divide at the leadership levels where they should be working together.

You go there to represent the community and work with other communities to see if you can get things done for the country, not go there and say hard lines in the sand. Theres certain things you hard line in the sand, but those are peoples freedoms, not necessarily taking peoples rights away. We need to restore faith in the system and move forward and stop this backsliding.

Issues at the top of Alfonsos agenda, he said, include protecting womens reproductive rights, putting an emphasis on veteran affairs and fighting on behalf of the local agricultural community. To read more about issues that matter to Alfonso, visit josephalfonsoforcongress.com/policy.

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Democrat Joseph Alfonso headed for primary win as write-in for U.S. House seat - MLive.com

In the initial round of balloting on Election Day 2020, then-Sen. David Perdue was the top vote-getter, but the Republican incumbent fell shy of the 50 threshold. In Georgia, that meant he was forced into a runoff election, which Purdue fully expected to win.

He didnt. Thanks in part to Donald Trump helping depress GOP turnout, Democrat Jon Ossoff eked out a narrow win in early January, despite finishing second in November.

If Perdue had performed just 0.3 percent better in the first round, he wouldve won re-election and left the Senate in Republican hands. That 0.3 percent shortfall meant Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson was confirmed. It meant the American Rescue Plan passed. It meant the first new gun laws in a generation passed.

And it meant the Democrats ambitious Inflation Reduction Act was approved in dramatic fashion yesterday. NBC News reported:

Senate Democrats narrowly passed a sweeping climate and economic package on Sunday, putting President Joe Biden and his party on the cusp of a big legislative victory just three months before the crucial November midterm elections. After a marathon overnight Senate session, the 51-50 vote was strictly along party lines, with all Republicans voting no and all Democrats voting yes. After Vice President Kamala Harris cast the tie-breaking vote, Democrats stood and applauded.

The package has been hailed as the biggest climate bill in American history, and the description is more than fair. At the heart of the reconciliation package is roughly $369 billion in investments in climate and energy programs. This includes everything from tax credits for electric vehicles to methane reductions, energy-efficient home improvements to the launch of a National Climate Bank.

Its also a health care bill, empowering Medicare for the first time to negotiate the cost of some prescription medications with the pharmaceutical industry. It doesnt apply to all medications, and the benefits wont begin right away, but nevertheless, Democrats have spent years trying to get a breakthrough victory on this issue, and yesterday, they succeeded.

Whats more, the bill includes a three-year extension on the Affordable Care Act subsidies that helped push the nations uninsured rate to an all-time low.

Taken together, this represents the biggest legislative accomplishment of either party since the Affordable Care Act passed more than a decade ago. It wasnt easy by some measures, this Sisyphean process began nearly a year and a half ago and the final product wasnt quite as transformative as the White House originally envisioned, but its still a genuinely impressive governing triumph.

Theres an old proverb about successes having many parents, and plenty will deserve to share the credit for this achievement, but lets make this plain: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer made it happen.

For many years, one of the political worlds most overused jokes has been, The most dangerous place in Washington is between Chuck Schumer and a TV camera. Its now time to retire the maxim: This guy has a legislative record with few modern rivals.

President Joe Biden will receive and deserve a lot of credit for the victories of his first two years in office, but in a 50-50 Senate, each of these wins has been hard fought, and its been Schumer whos taken the lead in delivering the successes on everything from Covid relief to veterans aid, infrastructure to U.S. competitiveness, climate to health care.

The New York Times noted today that the Democratic leader is not known as a master tactician or gifted legislator. Perhaps not. But Schumers patience and tenacity have resulted in an unusually impressive record despite a majority that barely exists in any meaningful way.

He did, however, get some Republican help. When Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell threatened to derail a microchip bill that he supported, as part of a partisan hostage gambit, it had the effect of pushing West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin into Schumers arms, clearing the way for a breakthrough compromise.

Whats more, lets also not forget that when the bipartisan infrastructure package passed exactly one year ago this week Senate GOP leaders saw it as part of a strategy to derail a Democratic reconciliation package. Indeed, they admitted as much in public.

As we discussed at the time, the strategy from McConnell & Co. was relatively straightforward: Pass the modest, bipartisan infrastructure package, then sit back and wait for Democrats to tear each other apart over the reconciliation plan. With tiny Democratic majorities in both chambers, and effectively zero margin for error, Republicans gambled, assuming that the infrastructure bill would be the only one that could pass.

We now know they were wrong.

Steve Benen is a producer for "The Rachel Maddow Show," the editor of MaddowBlog and an MSNBC political contributor. He's also the bestselling author of "The Impostors: How Republicans Quit Governing and Seized American Politics."

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What's in it for Climate? Democrats' big bill puts hundreds of billions toward crisis - MSNBC

Then, he did something really remarkable: He showed up again.

That candidate is John Fetterman, who secured the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvanias May primary with a robust 59 percent of the vote and currently holds the lead in general election polling.

Fetterman lived up to his Every County, Every Vote slogan. On a single Saturday in early May, for example, he visited five counties in north-central Pennsylvania, part of the states rural T the vast area which form a big T on the map between the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh metro areas and north to the New York state line.

Ten days later, in spite of a stroke that hospitalized him just a few days before the primary, Fetterman carried all 67 counties in the Democratic primary. In doing so, Fetterman didnt just attend to the rural, he attended to what he often called the ruby red parts of the Keystone State. Trump carried all five of the counties Fetterman visited on that day in early May Clinton, Potter, Tioga, Bradford and Northumberland and he did so with at least 65 percent of the vote. In Potter County, four of five voters picked Trump. Many Democrats might see those counties as a waste of time, but in the primary, at least, showing up worked for Fetterman: He got 77 percent of the vote.

Fetterman is hardly the first Democratic candidate to make a show of an every-county tour. Indeed, it used to be the norm. When I was growing up in rural Arkansas in the 1970s and 80s, I recall Gov. Bill Clinton passing through my hometown each election cycle. (My family reminisced fondly for years about the day my sister, a teenaged waitress at Pearls Caf, served Clinton coffee and a slice of pie.) Clinton showed up even though my county was home to a measly 8,000 folks, of whom less than a few thousand voted. Its just how retail politics was done back in the day.

More recently, Beto ORourke conducted a 254-county campaign in 2018 when he ran against Ted Cruz for a U.S. Senate seat from Texas. ORourke lost, but by just 3 percent, and he and his running mate for lieutenant governor are now going out of their way to show up in the Lone Star States rural reaches. Likewise Chris Jones, Democratic nominee for governor of Arkansas, is on a 75-county tour of the Natural State as he challenges the Republican heir apparent, Sarah Huckabee Sanders.

But Fetterman may be the first candidate in recent memory to have visited each county in his state not once, but twice. When Fetterman became Pennsylvanias lieutenant governor in 2019, he undertook a 67-county listening tour about cannabis legalization. Columnist Will Bunch of the Philadelphia Inquirer suggests this laid the groundwork for Fettermans widespread popularity, observing that when Fetterman returned to each county as a candidate for Senate, he was shrouded in the purple haze of a political rock star.

Fettermans primary strategy was, of course, the very antithesis of New York Sen. Chuck Schumers dismissal of a voting bloc Democrats used to rely on: For every blue-collar Democrat we lose in western Pennsylvania, Schumer said, we will pick up two moderate Republicans in the suburbs in Philadelphia. That was in the summer of 2016, and the senator was soon proved wrong. Pennsylvania was credited (or blamed, depending on your politics), along with Michigan and Wisconsin, with Hillary Clintons loss of the presidency. Trump beat her by about 44,000 votes in 2016 to win Pennsylvanias 20 Electoral College votes. (Biden, who often referenced his scrappy Scranton roots, recovered in 2020 with a slightly wider margin of victory, 81,000 votes.)

The attention a high-profile candidate like Fetterman has paid to rural areas of his state may begin to ease the rural inferiority complex thats been festering for decades, as rural economies have stagnated, small towns have lost population and country folks have become the butt of jokes. One 27-year-old woman in Westmoreland County, part of the Pittsburgh metropolitan area that struggles against the Pennsyltucky stereotype, praised Fetterman for showing up and speaking bluntly. Were not just silly hillbillies, she told a New York Times reporter.

Fetterman has serious street cred when he speaks about crummy job markets and regional inequalities that bog down many nonmetro communities. Before seeking statewide office, he served for 13 years as mayor of Braddock, a down-and-out city of 1,721 near Pittsburgh. Fetterman has continued to live in Braddock with his family, in a converted car dealership even after he was elected lieutenant governor in 2018.

Issues of place what rural sociologists call uneven development or spatial inequality have long been front and center for Fetterman, as in his 2018 response to the Ballotpedia survey, I am most passionate about policies that help our forgotten communities. Fettermans wife, Gisele, struck a similar chord on the night of his primary victory. This race were running, its a race for every small town, for every person who calls those small towns home and for every person whos considered leaving because they didnt see enough opportunities.

Many Pennsylvanians are presumably drawn to Fettermans everyman persona. He wears hoodies and gym shorts on the campaign trail, speaks Pennsylvania vernacular including yinz and youse, and Stillers and Birds. Even his long-time failure to look after his health the cause of his stroke is something many rural voters can relate to as rural hospitals close and health care gets harder to access. Thats on top of the rugged, self-sufficient mindset associated with rural culture that leads many especially men to forego medical care.

Fetterman doesnt try to sound like a Republican. His policy positions are left of centersometimes pretty far left of center on everything except fracking, which he supports. He favors criminal justice reform, raising the minimum wage, supporting the LGBTQ community, and legalizing dreamers. Hes even in favor of abolishing the filibuster if thats what it takes to advance a progressive agenda.

When it comes to abortion rights and unions, Fetterman has been known to use the word sacred, and he has been particularly vocal since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June. When it comes to unions, even Fettermans dogs with their own Twitter account have gotten in on the action, expressing excitement about the unionization of Pittsburgh area Starbucks stores:

Given that some of these positions especially those on social and cultural issues surely rankle Pennsylvanias rural moderates, Fettermans popularity has probably risen not because of his stances, but rather in spite of them.

It may be that Fettermans personal appeal permits him to move the needle on voters political stances, pulling them along with his agenda. Fetterman may be to white working-class and rural voters in Pennsylvania what Michigan State Sen. Mallory McMorrow is to suburban moms: the politician whose conviction, leadership and relatability brings others along on progressive positions, e.g., support for LGBTQ youth, that might otherwise give those voters pause, or cause them to balk outright. If John Fetterman believes it, they may reason, Ill give it some thought. Maybe hes got a point.

Whatever happens in the general election, Fettermans rural success in the primary raises the question: Why arent more Democratic candidates pursuing rural voters like Fetterman has?

Politicians and political consultants offer several excuses. Theres the discomfort candidates, as well as their staff, may feel when going into presumptively hostile territory. Some Democrats assume rural Americas a lost cause, not only because rural folks lean Republican, but also because of an assumption that they are yesterdays news, with little to contribute to the 21st century economy.

Plus, theres a widespread assumption that campaigns just dont get enough bang for their buck in rural places, where door knocking is inefficient because houses are scattered across the countryside rather than clustered along walkable streets. Its the same urban-centric thinking that keeps all sorts of institutions from investing in rural people and places: a belief you dont get a high enough return on investment where you cant achieve economies of scale.

If Fetterman had bought that line of thinking, none of the places he visited on Saturday, May 7 would have been deemed worth his time. None has more than 10,000 residents, and three have populations hovering around just 3,000. All are in nonmetro counties, defined as fewer than 100,000 residents. Wouldnt Fetterman have been wiser to spend that day in one of the states metropolitan areas, where critical masses of voters reside? After all, to make those five stops, Fetterman spent more than five hours driving 245 miles to get from one town to the next. And that doesnt count the three hours it took him to travel each way from his Braddock home to this part of north central Pennsylvania. How many voters did Fetterman reach on those nonmetro appearances, conventional political wisdom might ask? Did he convert any voters who werent already in his camp?

Fetterman apparently wasnt thinking about it that way. Hes running for state-wide office, which means that there are no gerrymandered districts to fall back on and a rural vote counts as much as an urban or suburban one. By visiting rural areas, the signal Fetterman sent to all rural Pennsylvanians all red Pennsylvanians is a powerful one. He saw them. He invested his time and energy in them, thus responding to a perennial rural complaint that politicians and mainstream society generally forgets or neglects them.

Its clear that this worked in the primary, and the question is whether that success will carry through to the general election. The truth is that in statewide races, rural voters can provide Democrats a margin of victory even if their town or county is ruby red. This was evident in Terry McAuliffes failed campaign for Virginia governor in 2021. McAuliffe didnt connect with rural voters, and he lost badly in nonmetro counties the areas referred to as ROVA, meaning the rest of Virginia. Both the term ROVA treating rural as remainder after that which really matters and McAuliffes neglect of rural voters suggests an urban dismissiveness of the rural. (He believed he had solidly blue NOVA, or Northern Virginia, stitched up.) Its an attitude that permitted Glenn Youngkin to gain the governors mansion; Youngkin outperformed Trumps 2020 numbers in rural places, giving him an edge McAuliffe could not overcome when he got less suburban support than hed anticipated.

Fetterman, similarly, will have to rack up huge margins in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh if he doesnt chip away at Republican dominance in the hinterlands. Its even possible that his strategy to cultivate support from across the state may be an added attraction to progressive metro voters; after all, the every-county approach has a unity vibe that may appeal to folks all along the rural-urban continuum.

Indeed, the election outcome could turn on mid-sized metropolitan counties like York (where Fetterman grew up) and Lancaster, where tens of thousands of votes are at stake. Those counties, considered part of the neglected T because theyre not Pittsburgh and Philly, were the last two places Fetterman visited before his stroke. More than 64,000 Democratic votes were cast in York and Lancaster counties combined in the primary. Thats more than the margin of Hillary Clintons 2016 Pennsylvania loss. Fetterman carried those counties with 80 percent and 76 percent, respectively, of the Democratic vote.

Fetterman still has his work cut out for him, of course. A national survey in February showed that two out of three rural voters view the Democratic Party unfavorably. Fettermans opponent, Republican nominee Mehmet Oz (televisions Dr. Oz), thus has some ready-made traction in the states rural reaches because of the R by his name on the ballot. Theres also the matter of Trumps endorsement of Oz, though Oz has recently been distancing himself from the former president.

With Fetterman still recovering from his stroke, hes unlikely to get back to each of Pennsylvanias counties before November. But it probably doesnt matter. Fetterman has already accumulated critical capital in the T, which may be enough to counter the toxic D by his name. And his unconventional rural strategy as much as his unconventional persona could help give him the W in a tight race, one with huge national implications for the balance of the Senate.

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Opinion | John Fetterman is Running a Test that Democrats Need to Watch - POLITICO

Things are looking up for the Donkey Party. But for how long? Photo-Illustration: Intelligencer; Photos: Getty Images

How much difference a few weeks can make! Not that very long ago, Joe Bidens job-approval rating seemed chronically and endlessly depressed; the Democratic-controlled Congress couldnt get anything done; and all the indicators for the 2022 midterm elections looked terrible for the party, in part because its own voters were deeply disappointed with the lack of legislative productivity and a perceived absence of presidential leadership.

Now, in a series of legislative victories highlighted by the Schumer-Manchin budget-reconciliation agreement (now known as the Inflation Reduction Act, or IRA), Senate Democrats are suddenly walking tall, as Punchbowl News noted:

Senate Democrats have put together an impressive resume this summer, most especially during the last two months. The CHIPS Plus Act, PACT Act, Sweden and Finlands accession to NATO, gun control and reconciliation were all passed in this period, a number of them with big bipartisan majorities. All in a 50-50 Senate.

Assuming the House finishes action on the IRA later this week, its quite the late-innings home run, complete with a rebranded title that shows Democrats at least trying to address what has been the dominant issue of the midterms: inflation. Along with the Kansas abortion-rights referendum on August 2 that shows that Democrats may have an issue of competing significance to both swing and base voters, the landscape is most definitely getting brighter for Democrats. And though Biden and his party probably had little to do with it, they will get credit for falling gasoline prices if they continue to drop.

In an interview with Politico, Bidens pollster John Anzalone used a gambling analogy for the turnaround. We put our last silver dollar in our slot machine and came up big,he said. And they were sitting there with a stack of chips and are down to just one. The turnaround is unbelievable.

Spin aside, things are clearly looking better for Democrats, but the question (other than uncertainty over the future direction of crucial economic indicators) is whether midterm losses are already baked into the cake. After all, with the exception of George W. Bush in the immediate wake of 9/11, every president going back to the 1930s has lost ground in his first-term midterm election. Even very small House and Senate net losses would flip control to Republicans. And while a yearlong downward drift in Bidens job-approval rating has now been replaced with small gains, its still dreadful at the moment: 39.6 percent in the averages at both FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics. At this point in 2018, Donald Trumps RCP job-approval average was 43.4 percent, and his party was on the way to losing 41 House seats. Then, too, the direction of the country right-track, wrong-track ratio was 41-51. Now its 20-73.

Sure, Democratic base voters unhappy with earlier legislative misfires may now have a sunnier outlook on the partys congressional candidates. That, along with the growing anger at conservative Supreme Court justices and anti-abortion Republican state officials, could certainly improve Democratic turnout. But Republicans will likely retain an advantage of core swing-voter concerns that are unlikely to go away by November 8, as Senator Marco Rubio suggested in a taunting floor speech on the IRA over the weekend:

There isnt a single thing in this bill that helps working people lower the prices of groceries, or the price of gasoline, or the price of housing, or the price of clothing. There isnt a single thing in this bill thats gonna keep criminals in jail. There isnt a single thing in this bill thats going to secure our border. Those happen to be things that working people in this country care about.

That too is spin, of course, but the point is that GOP talking points really dont have to change in light of the IRAs passage.

The best empirical news for Democrats is the trajectory of the congressional generic ballot, the midterm indicator that has had the most predictive value in the past. As recently as June 13, Republicans had a 3.5 percent advantage in the RCP averages for this measurement of congressional voting preferences, with the expectation that the margin would widen as voting grew near. Now the generic ballot is basically tied (Republicans: 44.7 percent, Democrats: 44.6 percent). Historically, the party controlling the White House loses steam late in the midterm cycle, but at the moment, Bidens party does seem to have some momentum. And in the national contest where Democrats have most reason to be optimistic, the battle for control of the Senate, Republicans continue to suffer from candidate-quality problems that could lose them seats they probably should win in a midterm. John Fetterman keeps maintaining a solid lead over Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania; this race is for a seat currently held by the GOP. And in Georgia, Raphael Warnock continues to run comfortably ahead of Herschel Walker even before the frequently tongue-tied former football great reluctantly faces the highly eloquent incumbent Democrat in debates.

There is no way to know, much less factor in, late-breaking real-world developments that might affect the trajectory of these and other midterm contests, whether its unexpected economic news, a change of direction in the Russia-Ukraine war, or an official 2024 candidacy announcement by Trump that reminds Democrats that the wolf is still at the door. Typically, voting preferences form well before Election Day, and early voting will begin in September in some states. At present, FiveThirtyEight gives Republicans an 80 percent probability of controlling the House next year and Democrats a 59 percent chance of holding the Senate. These numbers are better for Democrats than those we saw in June and July. But dont get your hopes up or down just yet.

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Will Democrats' Legislative Success Matter in the Midterms? - New York Magazine