Rouhani 2.0 vs. the Hawks in Washington and Tehran – New York Times

The playing field, however, is hardly even: In July, Mr. Rouhanis brother was arrested on corruption charges. He was later released on bail, but the prospect of his humiliating imprisonment could be used by the principlists to pressure Mr. Rouhani.

President Trump, surrounded by advisers seemingly determined to take a harder stance toward Iran, is reportedly seeking a pretext to eviscerate the 2015 nuclear accord. In lock step with Congress, the Trump administration has already moved to intensify sanctions and has vowed to aggressively counter Irans regional policies and ballistic missile activities.

Seen from Tehran, the signs are unmistakable: From its efforts to erect a Sunni arc to curb Irans purported Shiite crescent in the Levant to repeated hints about regime change, this administration is intent on confronting Iran, depriving it of the nuclear deals economic dividends and seeking to unseat its rulers.

There is no reason to believe that the Trump administration will succeed where its six predecessors faltered. And in that sense Irans rulers have little to worry about.

Of greater concern are the American policies unintended consequences. Escalation against Iran is bound to deepen the insecure countrys siege mentality; rising tensions will feed Irans militarism and militancy; and squeezing Iran will diminish Mr. Rouhanis maneuvering space.

All of this will bolster the principlists defeated time after time in local and national elections and enable them to regain politically what they lost electorally. They could exploit the external threat as pretext to obstruct the governments agenda, hinder economic reintegration to preserve their own interests, label critics as foreign agents, and fuel apathy and dissatisfaction to ensure their rivals defeat in the next elections. While the United States is incapable of empowering Iranian pragmatists, midwifing a principlist consolidation now would be a grave mistake.

The biggest losers in all of this, of course, will be the Iranian people. They pursued utopia in 1979 and know full well the cost of revolutionary change. Since then, they have grasped at the highly imperfect electoral straws of Irans constitutional theocracy, hoping for a gradual evolution toward a more open economy and pluralistic polity. Given a limited choice, they endorsed Mr. Rouhanis platform of diplomatic engagement with the West and banked that it would produce at least some modest improvements.

Instead, they have been paid back with the Trump administrations travel ban, its callous blaming of Iran after the Islamic States attack in Tehran in June and policies that will embolden the very forces they rebuked at the ballot box.

In 1953, the United States helped engineer a coup against an Iranian government that represented a nascent democratic movement a decision that boomeranged, fueling anti-American rancor and contributing to the rupture between the two countries a quarter-century later when zealots stormed the American Embassy in Tehran.

There is a lesson in that for the Trump administration.

Mr. Rouhani is not an ideal partner for Washington, and Iran under his helm would not pursue policies to Americas liking. The United States can intelligently push back against aggressive Iranian behavior in the region, and it can legitimately insist on rigorous enforcement of the nuclear accord.

But to escalate regional tensions, deepen sectarian rifts, undermine the nuclear agreement, pursue regime change and eschew all diplomatic engagement would be a hazardous affair. The Trump administration risks tilting Irans internal dynamics in the wrong direction at a pivotal moment, once again bringing the countrys democratic struggle to grief and breeding another generation of enemies.

Ali Vaez is the senior Iran analyst for the International Crisis Group.

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A version of this op-ed appears in print on August 5, 2017, in The International New York Times.

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Rouhani 2.0 vs. the Hawks in Washington and Tehran - New York Times