Stocks fell this morning on a very strong June jobs report before trading flat through noon. The latest batch of jobs data, released before the market opened, showed a huge payrolls beat (+372k jobs reported vs. +268k expected) alongside climbing hourly wages, which jumped 0.3% month-over-month (MoM), matching expectations. Unemployment remained unchanged at 3.6%.
The surprisingly large beat flew in the face of recent economic data that suggested the US has already entered a recession. But perhaps the most stunning disconnect was found in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) very own June household survey. The household survey is designed to measure the size of the labor force in the US with demographic detail. This survey is where the BLS derives the unemployment rate from.
And over the last three months, the household surveys findings have not aligned with the headline jobs numbers (aka the establishment survey). Junes household survey actually reported a 315,000 decline in jobs. Aprils household survey showed a similarly striking drop of 353,000 jobs opposite a headline April jobs report gain of 428,000 payrolls.
Mays household survey matched the establishment survey, but April and June did not in the slightest.
Thats probably what caused the recent dip in the labor force participation rate, which now sits flat since the start of the year after rising in Q1.
Cumulative discrepancies between the household and establishment surveys have created a major gap that began forming in March, too.
Thats abundantly clear when you plot both surveys on a chart. The household survey peaked back in March while the establishment survey just kept on rising. Over the last three months, the establishment survey shows a gain of 1.124 million jobs vs. the household, which shows a net employment loss of 347,000. Thats a total difference of about 1.5 million jobs.
How is this possible, you may ask? It all has to do with the demographics of the household survey, which divides workers into three categories:
Full-time, part-time, and multiple jobholders.
Full-time employees declined by 70,000 since March while part-time workers fell by 326,000. Multiple jobholders, on the other hand, have surged to a post-Covid high of 7.541 million. Multiple jobholders swelled by 239,000 in June alone opposite full-time and part-time workers, who fell by 152,000 and 326,000 last month, respectively.
But it gets even worse.
Multiple jobholders whose primary and secondary jobs are both full-time just hit a record high as well.
In short, there are far fewer people working than the last handful of jobs reports would suggest. There has, however, been a sharp increase in the number of people working multiple jobs. This is reflected in the recent jobs beats, which count the number of totalpayrolls, not workers.
Does that sound like the kind of thing that happens when the economy is strong? Not at all. Usually, folks are happy to have only one employer during times of economic prosperity.
The reality here is that US labor is not in a healthy place. Whats more, the US is experiencing a labor shortage during what seems to be the early stages of a recession.
And it should only get worse as high-quality jobs fall opposite ones that are taken by workers already employed elsewhere. Investors saw this mornings jobs beat as a potentially bearish impulse, as it suggested that the economy was strong enough to handle an aggressive rate hike schedule from the Fed.
The truth is that its a bearish impulse for an entirely different reason. US labor is in shambles, hidden by headline jobs gains that the BLS uses as a smokescreen. Its another sign that this recession is going to be far more intense than most expect, and when the market realizes that, share prices should react very negatively in turn.
Read the original here:
The June Jobs Report Is "Fake News," Here's Why - Unseen Opportunity
- France Takes Legal Action Against Israeli Fake News Firm Revealed by Haaretz - Israel Did Nothing - National Security ... - Haaretz - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Totally Not Fake News: Airing of grievances...Houston Texans and otherwise - Battle Red Blog - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Fake news sites, misinformation exploding thanks to new tech - Fox News - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- The Candice Malcolm Show | The biggest fake news HOAXES of 2023 - True North - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Evaluating truthfulness of fake news through online searches increases chances of believing misinformation: Study - Phys.org - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Unsure if news is true? You may be more likely to believe misinformation - The Jerusalem Post - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Lions on the loose in Indianapolis? Its not true, its fake news, zoo officials say - FOX 59 Indianapolis - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- No, Adele was not holding a Palestinian flag at one of her recent concerts - Truth or Fake - FRANCE 24 English - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- X to be investigated for allegedly breaking EU laws on hate speech and fake news - The Guardian - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- AI-generated weapons of mass misinformation have arrived - MSNBC - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Deepfakes are everywhere! Who is keeping the tab on fake news? - afaqs! - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Analysts hit out at the use of smear tactics and fake news by Western nations - China Daily - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Please respect my history and respect my boys - Jose Mourinho says his alleged all-time XI including Cristiano ... - Sportskeeda - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Call to secure prompt response to fake news ahead of elections in Belarus - Belarus News (BelTA) - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- As fake nudes become latest AI headache, experts call for regulation and awareness - The Indian Express - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Newsable: Fact-checking fake news can make you more likely to believe it - Stuff.co.nz - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Alleged fake nurse charged with forgery and impersonation on Vancouver Island - CBC.ca - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Lions on the loose in United States? - ARY NEWS - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Fake news, real victims: The tragedy of the Middle East bombings - The Hill - October 22nd, 2023 [October 22nd, 2023]
- New YouTube Recommendation Feature After Government Notice On Fake News - NDTV - October 22nd, 2023 [October 22nd, 2023]
- Fake news exposed: Injured Gaza baby photo proven to be AI-generated - The Jerusalem Post - October 22nd, 2023 [October 22nd, 2023]
- Social media trolling and spread of fake news are threat to Irish ... - The Irish Times - October 22nd, 2023 [October 22nd, 2023]
- FG won't trample on rights of citizens in fight against fake news, says ... - TheCable - October 22nd, 2023 [October 22nd, 2023]
- Russian Propagandists Are Dancing on the Bones of Israel-Hamas ... - The Moscow Times - October 22nd, 2023 [October 22nd, 2023]
- Health Ministry rebukes Elon Musk for 'fake news' about COVID-19 - The Times of Israel - May 31st, 2023 [May 31st, 2023]
- Elon Musk Is Flirting With a Fake AOC Twitter Account - The New Republic - May 31st, 2023 [May 31st, 2023]
- Fake news is only getting worse | News | mymcr.net - Monroe County Reporter - May 31st, 2023 [May 31st, 2023]
- Identifying fake news requires actively open-minded thinking, new ... - Concordia University News - May 31st, 2023 [May 31st, 2023]
- Binance's Changpeng Zhao complains of fake news and hints at ... - CoinGeek - May 31st, 2023 [May 31st, 2023]
- DISINFORMATION, MISINFORMATION AND FAKE NEWS - The Star Online - May 31st, 2023 [May 31st, 2023]
- Will Brazil's 'Fake News Bill' regulate disinformation or stifle free ... - The World - May 31st, 2023 [May 31st, 2023]
- Sedition Not Ruled Out For Spreading Fake News, Misinformation On Manipur - NDTV - May 31st, 2023 [May 31st, 2023]
- Journalists at the front lines battling fake news - The Star Online - May 31st, 2023 [May 31st, 2023]
- 'Fake news' -- Dele Alake debunks reports of appointment as ... - TheCable - May 31st, 2023 [May 31st, 2023]
- FAKE NEWS ALERT: We are not recruiting, PenCom tells jobseekers - TheCable - May 31st, 2023 [May 31st, 2023]
- May 29: DSS warns against fake news, says there are plans to ... - TheCable - May 31st, 2023 [May 31st, 2023]
- Study reveals key reason why fake news spreads on social media - April 6th, 2023 [April 6th, 2023]
- Rob Gronkowski shuts down rumors of Bill Belichick shopping Mac Jones: 'I think that was fake news' - Fox News - April 6th, 2023 [April 6th, 2023]
- Fake cop arrested after attempting traffic stop of real cop - The Mercury News - April 6th, 2023 [April 6th, 2023]
- False information is being spread: Officials on fake news over attack on Bihari migrant workers in Tamil Nadu - India Today - March 4th, 2023 [March 4th, 2023]
- These Were the 10 Most-Viewed Fake News Stories on Facebook in 2019 - February 20th, 2023 [February 20th, 2023]
- TOTALLY NOT FAKE NEWS: The Texans Off-Season Off to a Fast and Furious Start... - Battle Red Blog - February 2nd, 2023 [February 2nd, 2023]
- What would happen if a space rock crashed into your town? Find out with this simulator - CW39 Houston - January 23rd, 2023 [January 23rd, 2023]
- Did Fake News On Facebook Help Elect Trump? Here's What We Know - NPR.org - January 10th, 2023 [January 10th, 2023]
- Working to Stop Misinformation and False News - Facebook - January 10th, 2023 [January 10th, 2023]
- FAKE NEWS FAILING: The Washington Post Has Lost 500K Subscribers Since ... - January 10th, 2023 [January 10th, 2023]
- Types of fake news: Know the difference between misinformation and disinformation - News9 LIVE - January 8th, 2023 [January 8th, 2023]
- Fact Check: WEF's Statement To Bathe Once A Week To Combat Climate Change. Is It True? - Outlook India - January 8th, 2023 [January 8th, 2023]
- How fake news gets into our minds, and what you can do to resist it - December 25th, 2022 [December 25th, 2022]
- TOTALLY NOT FAKE NEWS: No Time to Celebrate for the TexansThey Got Football To Play - Battle Red Blog - December 25th, 2022 [December 25th, 2022]
- FAKE NEWS | definition in the Cambridge English Dictionary - December 21st, 2022 [December 21st, 2022]
- Fake news. It's complicated. - First Draft - December 21st, 2022 [December 21st, 2022]
- Fake news: What is it? And how to spot it - CBBC Newsround - December 21st, 2022 [December 21st, 2022]
- Kangana Ranaut reacts to reports about Emergency allowed to be shot in Parliament: Its fake news - Bollywood Hungama - December 21st, 2022 [December 21st, 2022]
- Due diligence was required, or a Google search: The Quint CEO pulls up Ravish Kumar on his claims of Adani owning the organisation - OpIndia - December 21st, 2022 [December 21st, 2022]
- Fake news: How to spot misinformation : Life Kit : NPR - December 2nd, 2022 [December 2nd, 2022]
- How the US Government Used Propaganda to Sell Americans on ... - HISTORY - December 2nd, 2022 [December 2nd, 2022]
- TMCs Saket Gokhale spreads fake report claiming 30 crore was spent on PMs Morbi visit citing RTI response that does not exist - OpIndia - December 2nd, 2022 [December 2nd, 2022]
- Fighting Misinformation, Meet Andy Norman, Who is Empowering People to Combat Fake News - News18 - December 2nd, 2022 [December 2nd, 2022]
- Fake News: Why People Believe, How It Spreads, and What You Can Do ... - October 2nd, 2022 [October 2nd, 2022]
- TOTALLY NOT FAKE NEWS: The Texans Look to Bounce Back - Battle Red Blog - October 2nd, 2022 [October 2nd, 2022]
- Report of armed robbery of Harrison Twp. bar appears to be a case of fake news, Sheriff Streck says - WHIO - October 2nd, 2022 [October 2nd, 2022]
- On the Philippines fake news problem - BusinessWorld Online - October 2nd, 2022 [October 2nd, 2022]
- Get Rs 5000 if received Covid shots - This claim is FAKE #FactChecked - OTV News - October 2nd, 2022 [October 2nd, 2022]
- Centre warns against propagating hate, spreading fake news on social media - Times Now - October 2nd, 2022 [October 2nd, 2022]
- Congress Initiates Action Against BJP's Priti Gandhi, 4 Others Over 'Fake News' - The Quint - October 2nd, 2022 [October 2nd, 2022]
- Brazil Has Never Been So Prepared to Fight Fake News - Americas Quarterly - September 17th, 2022 [September 17th, 2022]
- Totally Not Fake News: The Texans And The Fallout From History - Battle Red Blog - September 17th, 2022 [September 17th, 2022]
- OVP studying whether to file complaints vs. those spreading fake news regarding Duterte - GMA News Online - September 17th, 2022 [September 17th, 2022]
- Study Says Many Teens Cant Tell The Difference Between Real And Fake News - HuffPost - September 17th, 2022 [September 17th, 2022]
- TikTok is infested with fake news, according to this study - Gearrice - September 17th, 2022 [September 17th, 2022]
- Heavy losses for Ukraine, the feats of Russian soldiers, and fake news from Kyiv - Meduza - September 17th, 2022 [September 17th, 2022]
- NASCAR & NBA Arent the Sports Responsible for Michael Jordan & Denny Hamlins $150 Million Fake News Collaboration - EssentiallySports - September 17th, 2022 [September 17th, 2022]
- A short history of fake history: Why fighting for the truth is critical - Salon - September 17th, 2022 [September 17th, 2022]
- What is fake news? - Definition from WhatIs.com - September 11th, 2022 [September 11th, 2022]
- Fake News is All Around Us - Seed World - September 11th, 2022 [September 11th, 2022]
- Totally Not Fake News: For the Texans, the End of the Beginning? - Battle Red Blog - September 11th, 2022 [September 11th, 2022]
- Fake news and the real thing - Buenos Aires Times - September 11th, 2022 [September 11th, 2022]
- The death of Queen Elizabeth II is giving rise to scams and fake news - Komando - September 11th, 2022 [September 11th, 2022]
- Data: Cases booked for 'Circulation of Fake News' down 42% in 2021; Pendency increases while Conviction rate comes down - Factly - September 11th, 2022 [September 11th, 2022]