Elon Musk believes Tesla will have ‘level 4 or 5’ self-driving this year … – Electrek

Elon Musk has again decided to share a timeline about Teslas self-driving effort again claiming it will achieve full self-driving by the end of the year.

But this time, the CEO has mentioned level 4 or 5 self-driving. However, its not clear if he knows what that means.

Over the years, Musk has claimed that Tesla was on the verge of achieving full self-driving capability so often that it is hard to believe him now.

Its not only hard to believe, but its also even hard to understand what the actual goal is at this point.

Teslas original promise was quite clear: Every car sold since 2016 will be able to drive entirely by itself at a level safer than humans through software updates in the future.

At times, level 5 SAE autonomy was mentioned by Musk, along with the ability to go to sleep while the car drives you around.

But since Tesla released its Full Self-Driving (FSD) Beta, these previously clear goals have become more vague and disappointing.

Tesla started using terms like feature complete and capable of driving at a level safer than humans with FSD Beta. However, it has become less clear how Tesla plans to get the FSD out of beta and into a product that can actually be useful, like a robot taxi service.

It looks like Tesla has softened its language after missing its goal and timeline a few times, and Musk had mostly stopped making clear timeline predictions until recently.

In the last few months, he mentioned a few times that he believes Tesla will achieve full autonomy by the end of the year though he remained vague about what form it will take.

In a recent comment about Teslas self-driving effort at an AI conference in China, the CEO has used new language that makes things a bit more interesting:

In terms of whereTesla is at this stage, I think we are very close to achieving full self-driving without human supervision. This is only speculation, but I think well achieve full self-driving, maybe what you would call four or five, I think later this year.

The important terms here are without human supervision and four or five although, for the latter, Musk doesnt seem to know what he is talking about.

The driving automation levels are based on the SAE standards, which this chart summarizes well:

The most significant aspect of the jump from level 2 to level 3 is that the responsibility falls with the system (not the driver) starting from level 3 and up.

Meanwhile, the major difference between levels 4 and 5 is that the latter is supposed to be able to drive in any condition anywhere.

The fact that Elon casually says 4 or 5 is maddening to me. Its such a massive difference, and he should know better than keep talking about level 5.

Technically, thats what he promised before, but I think its clearly unachievable with current hardware. You just need to try to use Autopilot in the snow and even heavy rain to see that you often get weather alerts about the sensors being covered, and the system requires you to take over.

Even level 4 is questionable, as FSD Beta often asks drivers to take over in seemingly good conditions. I can see level 3 happening for Tesla, but the company somehow doesnt seem to be interested in that.

We are already halfway through the year. Elons timeline is literally a few months away. I cant believe it can confidently keep claiming this is happening.

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Elon Musk believes Tesla will have 'level 4 or 5' self-driving this year ... - Electrek