J.D. Vance, author of the best-seller memoir (and subsequent film with Glenn Close) Hillbilly Elegy, is now running for a Senate seat in Ohio. While campaigning, he made news a week ago by saying we ought to consider a policy whereby people who have children cast not only their own votes, but they also cast the votes of their children until they are 18 years old. His point is this would be a way to give the people with the most stake in the future for our country the most say in shaping that future. Vance is running as a Republican and, by the way, he is a convert to Catholicism.
As you might have guessed over the years, I myself am not a Republican. All the same, some of the points Vance is making about what our country does and (mostly) doesnt do to foster healthy families, are valid and deserve to be front and center in 2022 and 2024. I think perhaps he goes a bit over the top with ad hominem argument when he complains that too many liberal Democrats in office dont have any kids and, for this reason, their views on policy are suspect, or worse. Im not sure the demographics of our politicians in office support that general observation. Nonetheless, in terms of the liberal Democrat intellectual establishment, there may well be merit to his concerns. Professors and authors are not likely these days to have a large number of children, or any children at all. There is indeed a potential blind spot there that can obscure the views of the liberal elite. They also tend to be nonreligious, as everyone knows.
In relation to all this, the University of London scholar Eric Kaufman has shown in his now famous book, Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth? Demography and Politics in the 21st Century (London, 2010), that all societies that lean toward secularism, agnosticism and atheism have fertility rates that are below replacement level and often times seriously below replacement level. This is true for all the countries of Europe and Russia (and China by force), as well as Australia, Canada and the United States. Replacement level is an average of 2.1 births per woman during reproductive lifespan, this measurement is the so-called Total Fertility Rate (TFR). Here in New England, Vermont is, by many standards, the least religious state in the U.S. and Vermont also has the lowest Total Fertility Rate of any state in the U.S., tied with Rhode Island, coming in at 1.5 births as of 2019 (as per the CDC report available online). Kaufmans book shows a clear connection between countries, states and subgroups religious practices (or lack thereof) and their fertility rates.
When I was still teaching college students, I was constantly surprised at how almost none of them realized the complications that arise when fertility rates fall below replacement level. Europe is living through these complications right now. The TFR for the European Union is 1.5 with Italy and Spain coming in at only 1.3 births. This means that Italys and Spains fertility rate is almost 50% below replacement level. Without significant immigration, they will not be able to hold their economies and social programs together through the coming decades. Having a decreasing population may sound great at first blush, but living through it is something else. Whole towns and regions become depressed and die; the market for goods and services shrinks each year; children in some towns are completely absent; old people outnumber the young. A world without a healthy next generation is a very sad place.
No doubt about it, having children is very hard work and very expensive. As any parent who has done the job well will tell you, it is the hardest job there is. It is even harder in a society such as the U.S., which is highly individualistic, has almost no programs to encourage and assist middle-class families, and is a country in which the extended family system is not especially functional.
People who live entirely by secular values, who are nonreligious, have a lower fertility rate than those who are religious almost no matter what religion. In the U.S., atheists and agnostics have a TFR of 1.6 and 1.3, while Catholics and Evangelicals have 2.3, with Mormons having the highest, 3.4 (see the Washington Post, May 12, 2015).
Also, as Kaufman explains in detail in his book, the world population as a whole is becoming more religious and the demographic directions are clear. Even simplistic, vulgar Darwinism establishes the point: Whoever reproduces best wins out in the end its not just survival of the fittest after all. Worldwide, Christians have a TFR of 2.6 and Muslims have 2.9 meaning Islam is the worlds fastest growing religion at the moment, but both are growing. These two religions are followed by over 50% the worlds people today and by 2050 over 60% of the world will follow these religions and 15% will follow Hinduism only a little over 10% will be unaffiliated (as per Pew Research Center figures).
Those who would like to see the worlds (and Americas) population fall dramatically and quickly, are going to be disappointed. Thankfully, in no small degree due to the influence of religions, the U.S. and the world rate of population growth will not fall off a cliff. World population will be decreasing slowly and steadily, coming to a permanent plateau at 10-11 billion worldwide population in 2100 (as per the United Nations mid-level estimate). This is within current estimates of our planets carrying capacity, and continued improvement in human ecology is extremely likely during the next 80 years.
Vance makes the point that, of course, its possible to keep the U.S. population stable through immigration, but he also makes the point that it would be less stressful culturally to achieve population stability the old-fashioned way, through keeping our TFR at 2.1 births. However, to do this, it might well not be enough to count on religious motivation alone, since the U.S. is also experiencing tendencies toward religious non-affiliation and secularism in general. He argues (and he almost sounds like a Democrat here) that we need to think about serious, outside-the-box improvements in our state and federal policies that foster, encourage and support peoples willingness to have children. And to do so in ways that encourage stable marriage and responsible parenthood.
Today, around 40% of births in America are to unmarried women. In the European Union, its over 50% and in France, over 60%. My point is not prudish disapproval. My point is much more serious: The point is that children are paying a price for the breakdown of the family. For example, the worldwide suicide rate for people 15-29 years old is 7.4 per 100,000, but in the U.S., it is 14 per 100,000, almost double the world average. This is tragic.
Religion can help with many things. Helping to foster a healthy birth rate and healthy families are two of those things. Helping to prevent suicide is another (see Medill News Service, Northwestern University, July 5, 2017). Those who are in a rush to rid the world of religion need to reconsider that stance and its repercussions.
A culture without God and children is a dying culture no matter how affluent and how progressive it may be.
John Nassivera is a former professor who retains affiliation with Columbia Universitys Society of Fellows in the Humanities. He lives in Vermont and part time in Mexico.
View post:
On Faith: JD Vance, families and us | Perspective | rutlandherald.com - Rutland Herald
- Darwinists Devolve - Discovery Institute - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Darwin's fatal competition model - Times of Malta - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Bitcoin Halving Is Poised to Unleash Darwinism on Miners - CoinDesk - December 12th, 2023 [December 12th, 2023]
- David Gelernters Farewell to Darwinism - Discovery Institute - November 20th, 2023 [November 20th, 2023]
- Darwinizing the Universe: A Theory That Explains Everything ... - BreakPoint.org - November 20th, 2023 [November 20th, 2023]
- Science Lab: Evolving Dak, McCarthy on the attack - DallasCowboys.com - November 20th, 2023 [November 20th, 2023]
- How to ensure that all students have scientific literacy - Inside Higher Ed - August 14th, 2023 [August 14th, 2023]
- The Darwinism of timepieces - Manila Bulletin - May 2nd, 2023 [May 2nd, 2023]
- ProSocial World: How the principles of evolution can create lasting ... - Science Daily - May 2nd, 2023 [May 2nd, 2023]
- New National Museum of Wildlife Art exhibition announced - Buckrail - May 2nd, 2023 [May 2nd, 2023]
- Digital Darwinism: How To Build Future-fit Foundations For Business ... - The Drum - April 22nd, 2023 [April 22nd, 2023]
- In Breath-Holding, Kate and a Croc Are Champions - Discovery Institute - April 22nd, 2023 [April 22nd, 2023]
- How the principles of evolution can create lasting global change ... - Binghamton - April 22nd, 2023 [April 22nd, 2023]
- What is essentialism? And how does it shape attitudes to transgender people and sexual diversity? - Phys.org - April 22nd, 2023 [April 22nd, 2023]
- Media CEO Says Writers Should Be Using AI to Churn Out 30-50 ... - Futurism - April 22nd, 2023 [April 22nd, 2023]
- Survival of the richest - Perspective Magazine - April 22nd, 2023 [April 22nd, 2023]
- Darwinism - an overview | ScienceDirect Topics - February 7th, 2023 [February 7th, 2023]
- Darwinism Theory of Evolution (With Criticism) | Biology - January 4th, 2023 [January 4th, 2023]
- Survival of the fittest | Definition, Applications, & Examples - December 25th, 2022 [December 25th, 2022]
- Naturalistic fallacy - Wikipedia - December 25th, 2022 [December 25th, 2022]
- Social Darwinism | Definition & Facts | Britannica - December 21st, 2022 [December 21st, 2022]
- Epigenetics Directs Genetics And Thats a Problem for Darwinism - December 16th, 2022 [December 16th, 2022]
- Herbert Spencer | Biography, Social Darwinism, Survival of the Fittest ... - November 27th, 2022 [November 27th, 2022]
- Herbert Spencer and Social Darwinism - SciHi BlogSciHi Blog - November 27th, 2022 [November 27th, 2022]
- Epigenetics: Adaptation Without Darwinism CEH - November 21st, 2022 [November 21st, 2022]
- Is Darwinism a Theory in Crisis? | Evolution News - November 21st, 2022 [November 21st, 2022]
- Social Darwinism | Examples & History - Study.com - October 25th, 2022 [October 25th, 2022]
- Survival of the fittest - Wikipedia - October 23rd, 2022 [October 23rd, 2022]
- Michael Behe: Game Over for Darwinism | Evolution News - October 23rd, 2022 [October 23rd, 2022]
- Gnter Bechlys Journey to Faith - Discovery Institute - October 13th, 2022 [October 13th, 2022]
- Gene Sharing Is More Widespread than Thought | Evolution News - October 6th, 2022 [October 6th, 2022]
- The Complicated Legacy of Herbert Spencer, the Man Who Coined 'Survival ... - October 6th, 2022 [October 6th, 2022]
- Darwinian Racism, Past and Present - Discovery Institute - October 6th, 2022 [October 6th, 2022]
- God Created Wholes, Not Parts | Peter J. Leithart - First Things - October 6th, 2022 [October 6th, 2022]
- Does Ian Remind Us We're in This Together? - LA Progressive - October 6th, 2022 [October 6th, 2022]
- A Pleasure to Serve - by Kevin D. Williamson - The Dispatch - October 6th, 2022 [October 6th, 2022]
- Opinion: Darwin, mega trends and tech drive food and beverage venture investing - FoodBev.com - October 6th, 2022 [October 6th, 2022]
- The mad, bad and dangerous theories of Thomas Henry Huxley - The Spectator - October 6th, 2022 [October 6th, 2022]
- Emily Whitten: Start with evolution | WORLD - WORLD News Group - September 20th, 2022 [September 20th, 2022]
- The Fading All-American Story - Word and Way - September 20th, 2022 [September 20th, 2022]
- What did the U.S. know about the Holocaust and when did we know it? - Forward - September 20th, 2022 [September 20th, 2022]
- What now for the British monarchy and its legacy for First Nations people? - National Indigenous Times - September 15th, 2022 [September 15th, 2022]
- Why Darwin Eclipsed Wallace: Darwin and the English Class System - Discovery Institute - August 25th, 2022 [August 25th, 2022]
- Michael Behe Debates Evolution and Catholicism - Discovery Institute - August 25th, 2022 [August 25th, 2022]
- Critical Race Theory's Merchants of Doubt | Time - TIME - August 2nd, 2022 [August 2nd, 2022]
- Survival of the briefest | Strictly Opinion | richmondregister.com - Richmond Register - August 2nd, 2022 [August 2nd, 2022]
- Critical Race Theorys Merchants of Doubt - Yahoo News - August 2nd, 2022 [August 2nd, 2022]
- Experts Share Opinions on Aliens and Humanity's Role in Space Exploration - The Future of Things - July 27th, 2022 [July 27th, 2022]
- Gnter Bechly: Species Pairs Wreck Darwinism - Discovery Institute - July 3rd, 2022 [July 3rd, 2022]
- Donate Darwinism for a Tax Credit? Evolutionists Admit Their Field's Failures - Discovery Institute - July 3rd, 2022 [July 3rd, 2022]
- Do we need a new theory of evolution? - The Guardian - June 30th, 2022 [June 30th, 2022]
- Overruling Roe v. Wade: The International Dimension - International Policy Digest - June 30th, 2022 [June 30th, 2022]
- On Darwinism and the Abdication of Reason - Discovery Institute - June 22nd, 2022 [June 22nd, 2022]
- Fact-Checking Professor Dave on Darwinism | Evolution News - June 5th, 2022 [June 5th, 2022]
- Texas Conservatives: Defenders Of Capitalism And The Free Market? Not So Much - Reform Austin - May 25th, 2022 [May 25th, 2022]
- Humans Could Go Extinct. Here's How and Who's Trying to Stop It - CNET - May 25th, 2022 [May 25th, 2022]
- Darwin, Galton, and Replacement Theory - Discovery Institute - May 21st, 2022 [May 21st, 2022]
- UPES takes the lead in rebooting business education and entrepreneurship - Times of India - May 21st, 2022 [May 21st, 2022]
- The implementation of brand safety is weak in India: MMA Impact India 2022 - The Financial Express - May 21st, 2022 [May 21st, 2022]
- The Real Roots of Racism: Pseudo-Science - Discovery Institute - May 13th, 2022 [May 13th, 2022]
- How We Moved Beyond Darwin to the Miracle of Man - Discovery Institute - May 13th, 2022 [May 13th, 2022]
- Opinion | Courage Seemed to be Dead. Then Came Zelensky. - The New York Times - May 13th, 2022 [May 13th, 2022]
- As PopSci turns 150, we reflect on the highs and lows of our long history - Popular Science - May 3rd, 2022 [May 3rd, 2022]
- "RB takes Darwinism very seriously" Lando Norris doesn't think highly of Red Bull driver programme; Carlos... - The Sportsrush - April 29th, 2022 [April 29th, 2022]
- Darwinism and the So What? Question: John West's Darwin Day in America - Discovery Institute - March 27th, 2022 [March 27th, 2022]
- Andrew Carnegie - Social Darwinism & Andrew Carnegie - March 23rd, 2022 [March 23rd, 2022]
- The Rise of Theistic Darwinism - Discovery Institute - March 23rd, 2022 [March 23rd, 2022]
- The Racism of Darwin and Darwinism - Discovery Institute - February 11th, 2022 [February 11th, 2022]
- Darwin's Rhetorical Foundation of Sand: Theological Utilitarianism - Discovery Institute - February 11th, 2022 [February 11th, 2022]
- Darwin's Reticence: On the Origin of a Book - Discovery Institute - February 11th, 2022 [February 11th, 2022]
- Evolutionary Thinking: On Darwinism, Doubt and Dunedin - RNZ - February 11th, 2022 [February 11th, 2022]
- Top Scientific Problems with Evolution - Discovery Institute - February 11th, 2022 [February 11th, 2022]
- Allowing 'Darwinism to Kill Off' the 'Foolish' Unvaccinated is a 'Necessary Evil,' According to a D.C. Mayor's Office official - The Lee Daily... - February 7th, 2022 [February 7th, 2022]
- Darwin and the Newtonian Metanarrative - Discovery Institute - January 30th, 2022 [January 30th, 2022]
- Social Darwinism - Communication Theory - December 29th, 2021 [December 29th, 2021]
- The Dead Talk Back to Darwin - Discovery Institute - December 15th, 2021 [December 15th, 2021]
- Materialist Science as Paternalistic Propaganda - Discovery Institute - December 15th, 2021 [December 15th, 2021]
- Why Darwinism Is False | Discovery Institute - December 3rd, 2021 [December 3rd, 2021]
- Herbert Spencer: Theory & Social Darwinism - Video ... - December 3rd, 2021 [December 3rd, 2021]
- Social Welfare History Project Social Darwinism and the Poor - November 28th, 2021 [November 28th, 2021]