Will Amanda Seyfried (The Dropout) ride her Emmy high all the way to a SAG Award win? – Gold Derby

Nearly a quarter century into her acting career, Amanda Seyfried has received just one SAG Award nomination, which she shared with her fellow Les Misrables ensemble members. After notably missing out on a solo bid for Mank in 2021, her first taste of individual attention from the acting guild appears imminent thanks to her powerhouse performance as Elizabeth Holmes on the Hulu limited series The Dropout. Having just earned a Best Movie/Limited Actress Emmy for the series, she could now become the 12th woman to leverage such a win into a SAG Award victory.

According to Gold Derbys SAG Awards predictions, Seyfried is in a secure first place position in this seasons Best TV Movie/Limited Actress race. Included among her likeliest challengers are Lily James (Pam and Tommy, second place), Julia Garner (Inventing Anna, fifth) and The White Lotus: Sicily duo Jennifer Coolidge (third) and Aubrey Plaza (fourth). Coolidge was just nominated here last year for the original White Lotus season but lost to Kate Winslet (Mare of Easttown). Just like at the 2022 Emmys, Garner could be a double individual nominee if she also picks up a Best Drama Actress bid for Ozark.

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Among lead actresses, the precedent for winning an Emmy and then a SAG Award for a single limited series or TV movie role was set in 1998 by Alfre Woodard (Miss Evers Boys). She has since been followed by Judy Davis (Life with Judy Garland, 2002), S. Epatha Merkerson (Lackawanna Blues, 2006), Helen Mirren (Elizabeth I, 2007), Laura Linney (John Adams, 2009), Claire Danes (Temple Grandin, 2011), Winslet (Mildred Pierce, 2012 and Mare of Easttown), Julianne Moore (Game Change, 2013), Sarah Paulson (American Crime Story, 2017), Nicole Kidman (Big Little Lies, 2018) and Michelle Williams (Fosse/Verdon, 2020).

Since lead and supporting players are not separated at the SAG Awards, Vanessa Redgrave (If These Walls Could Talk 2, 2001) and Stockard Channing (The Matthew Shepard Story, 2003) can be counted as honorary members of this group, since their Best TV Movie/Mini Actress SAG Award wins were preceded by featured Emmy victories. Including SAG Award-then-Emmy champs Halle Berry (Introducing Dorothy Dandridge, 2000), Meryl Streep (Angels in America, 2004) and Frances McDormand (Olive Kitteridge, 2015), a total of 16 actresses have been lauded by both organizations for non-continuing series performances.

If she is at least nominated, Seyfried will have a 4-to-1 chance of winning a SAG Award for The Dropout, given that Best Movie/Limited Actress Emmy wins have led to only three unsuccessful SAG Award bids. The half-lucky ladies in these cases were Glenn Close (Serving in Silence), Mirren (The Passion of Ayn Rand) and Jessica Lange (Grey Gardens). With one major industry award under her belt and ample precedent on her side, Seyfried should have no trouble scoring both her first solo SAG Award nomination and win in the same season.

Nominations for the 29th SAG Awards will be announced on Wednesday, January 11 with the ceremony following on Sunday, February 26. The awards are expected to be televised, although the organization has yet to partner with a new network after reaching the end of their decades-long deal with TNT and TBS.

PREDICTthe 2023 SAG Awards nominees through January 10

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Will Amanda Seyfried (The Dropout) ride her Emmy high all the way to a SAG Award win? - Gold Derby